The Crisis in North Africa Implications for Europe and Options for EU Policymakers Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Nathaniel Barr George Willcoxon Norhan Basuni Clingendael Report The Crisis in North Africa Implications for Europe and Options for EU Policymakers Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Nathaniel Barr George Willcoxon Norhan Basuni Clingendael Report April 2015 April 2015 © Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyright holders. About the authors Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), an adjunct assistant professor in Georgetown University’s security studies program, and the chief executive officer of the D.C-based consulting firm Valens Global. His research and professional work focus on the challenges posed by violent non-state actors. Gartenstein-Ross is the author or volume editor of seventeen books and monographs, including authoring full-length studies on the Libyan civil war, the jihadist group Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia, and Egyptian jihadist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis’s oath of loyalty to the Islamic State. Gartenstein-Ross holds a Ph.D. in world politics from the Catholic University of America and a J.D. from the New York University School of Law. In addition to his academic work, Gartenstein-Ross consults for clients who are grappling with the chal- lenges posed by violent non-state actors and twenty-first century conflict. His client work has included live hostage negotiations in the Middle East, risk assessments for oil and gas com- panies, border security work in Europe, and story and series development for major media companies. He has also advised the U.S. Department of Defense about the Libyan civil war. Nathaniel Barr is a threat analyst at Valens Global, where he focuses on violent non-state actors and political violence in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. He has worked extensively on a wide array of issues concerning insurgent movements and terrorist organizations. Barr was Gartenstein-Ross’s co-author on the aforementioned study exploring the Libyan civil war, and also co-authored a monograph on China’s post-2014 role in Afghanistan (FDD Press, 2014). He is a graduate of Brandeis University, holding a degree in political science and a minor in journalism. George Willcoxon, who served as the director of research at Valens Global while working on this report, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of California at Berkeley. He also holds M.A. and M.P.P. degrees from UC Berkeley, and a B.A. from Princeton University. Willcoxon’s dissertation presents a theory of counterinsurgent strategic behavior that explains how counterinsurgents select from among a variety of political, economic, and military strategies. Willcoxon’s writings have appeared in such publications as the California Journal of Politics and Policy, the Diplomatist, and the San Francisco Chronicle. He began a job at the United Nations office in Beirut in March 2015. Norhan Basuni is an independent analyst specializing in North Africa. She has spent significant time in the region, specifically in Egypt and Morocco, conducting research on Islamic/Arab civil society, counterterrorism, and global health and development strategies. She has served as a consultant to non-profit organizations, government agencies, and the private sector, and has expertise in conflict resolution, strategic communication, and humanitarian relief. Basuni is a graduate of the City University of New York, and is fluent in Arabic and French. The authors would like to thank Simran Maker, Bridget Moreng, Karly Nocera, Ravi Patel, and Natalie Rozet for their research assistance. Karly Nocera designed the maps featured in this report. Clingendael Institute P.O. Box 93080 2509 AB The Hague The Netherlands Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.clingendael.nl/ Contents Guide to Acronyms 5 Executive Summary 7 Introduction 10 1. North Africa Since the Arab Spring 11 2. Key Threats and Future Contingencies 34 3. Policy Options 57 Conclusion 90 4 Guide to Acronyms AAB Abdullah Azzam Brigades ABM Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis APC armored personnel carrier AQIM Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb AST Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia CoE Center of Excellence CT counterterrorism DCFTA deep and comprehensive free trade agreement DDR disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration DoD Department of Defense [United States] EOD explosive ordnance disposal EU European Union EUBAM Libya European Border Assistance Mission in Libya FLN National Liberation Front [Algeria] GIA Groupe Islamique Armé [Algeria] GNC General National Congress [Libya] GSPC Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat [Algeria] HoR House of Representatives [Libya’s internationally recognized government] IDPs internally displaced persons IED improvised explosive device IS Islamic State ISR intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance IYSC Islamic Youth Shura Council JIEDDO Joint Improvised Explosives Device Defeat Organization MJN Muhammad Jamal Network MRAP Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles PJD Justice and Development Party (Morocco) SSR security sector reform UAE United Arab Emirates UAVs unmanned aerial vehicles UN United Nations UNHCR United Nations High Commission for Refugees UNSC United Nations Security Council VNSA violent non-state actor 5 Map of North Africa Tunis Algiers Rabat Casablanca Tunisia Misrata Tripoli Alexandria Morocco Benghazi Peninsula Sinai Cairo Algeria Libya Egypt Mali Niger Chad Sudan 6 Executive Summary The Arab Spring protests of 2011 that swept through the Middle East and North Africa radically reshaped the region’s political and security environment. Longstanding regimes in Egypt and Tunisia fell in a matter of weeks, though the political orders that underpinned these regimes remained largely intact. Conversely, the violent overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi’s government in Libya upended the political status quo and forced post-revolutionary leaders to attempt to rebuild political institutions from the regime’s ashes. To the west, Morocco and Algeria have largely avoided the political turmoil that enveloped their eastern neighbors, though the threat of domestic unrest prompted both governments to adopt political and economic reforms that at least symbolically addressed the grievances of their populations. The newly unstable regional environment has created an array of challenges for European policymakers. Most prominent, jihadist groups have flourished in post-revolutionary North Africa, capitalizing on state weakness to carve out several spheres of influence. Libya’s descent into civil war has provided a further boost to regional jihadist groups, and the proliferation of jihadist actors in North Africa poses a direct threat to European security. But the political instability that has beset North Africa in the years following the Arab Spring also undermines European strategic and economic interests in broader ways. North Africa has quickly descended from being a bastion of continuity and consistency into a basket case, forcing European states to carefully monitor threats so as to limit spillover into Europe. Violent conflict and political disorder has undermined North Africa’s economic potential, which has in turn harmed European trade with its southern neighbor. Parts of North Africa have become strongholds for criminal networks, including drug traffickers and human smugglers, who have used North Africa as a base from which to gain entry into Europe. This report is divided into three sections. The first section provides an overview of current political trends in each of the five North African countries. Libya’s collapse poses a direct threat both to Europe and also its neighbors, as an ongoing civil conflict rages between the Dawn and Dignity coalitions. With no real central government to speak of, Libya has become hospitable to a wide variety of violent non-state actors, including jihadist groups. Egypt and Tunisia’s post-revolutionary trajectories have been less tumultuous than Libya’s, but both countries remain fragile. The Egyptian state, led by military strongman Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has cracked down on its opposition at the expense of civil liberties and political freedom. The country is beset by a persistent jihadist threat in the Sinai region, which has now spilled into the Nile Delta. Unlike Egypt, Tunisia has continued on its democratic path, making it perhaps the Arab Spring’s only success story. Still, Tunisia’s democratic transition is fragile, susceptible to challenges from those involved in the political process and also others who abstain from politics altogether. The latter group includes jihadists who continue to carry out attacks, including the shocking March 2015 slaughter of tourists at Tunis’s Bardo National Museum. Morocco and Algeria stand out for their political stability and continuity. However, the poor health of Algerian leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika raises concerns about potential succession troubles. Morocco continues to struggle with high levels of youth unemployment as well as a 7 The Crisis in North Africa | Clingendael Report, April 2015 burgeoning domestic radicalization problem, which has manifested itself in a large number of Moroccans traveling to Syria to join militant groups like the Islamic State and Jabhat