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U·M·I University Microfilms International a Bell & Howellinforrnation Company 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, M148106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 Personal computing in the CEMA community: A study of international technology development and management. Item Type text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic) Authors Stapleton, Ross Alan. Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 07/10/2021 15:25:25 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184767 INFORMATION TO USERS The most advanced technology has been used to photo­ graph and reproduce this manuscript from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are re­ produced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. These are also available as one exposure on a standard 35mm slide or as a 17" x 23" black and white photographic print for an additional charge. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. U·M·I University Microfilms International A Bell & Howellinforrnation Company 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, M148106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 Order Number 9000147 Personal computing in the CEMA community: A study of international technology development and management Stapleton, Ross Alan, Ph.D. The University of Arizona, 1989 Copyright ©1989 by Stapleton, Ross Alan. All rights reserved. D·M·I 300 N. Zeeb Rd. Ann Arbor, MI 48106 1 Personal Computing in the CEMA Community: A Study of International Technology Development and Management..... by Ross Alan Stapleton Copyright ©Ross Alan Stapleton 1989 A Dissertation Submitted to the COMMITTEE ON BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 198 9 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA GRADUATE COLLEGE As members of the Final Examination Committee, we certify that we have read the dissertation prepared by Ross Alan Stapleton entitled Personal Computing in the CEMA Cbmmmity: A Study of International 'I'echnology Development and Management and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement Ph.D. for the Degree of ------------------------------------------------------ Date Date Date Date Date Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent upon the candidate's submission of the final copy of the dissertation to the Graduate College. I hereby certify that I have read this dissertation prepared under my direction and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement. Dissertation Director Date 3 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This dissertation has been submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements for an advanced degree at The University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under the rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this dissertation are allowable with special pennission, pro­ vided that accurate acknowledgement of source is made. Requests for pennission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the copyright holder. SIGNED:~~ 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to acknowledge all those who helped in the course of my research, but above all, I would like to thank my parents, Tom and Shide Stapleton, for teaching me the importance of being. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES 9 LIST OF TABLES to ABSTRACT II 1 INTRODUCTION 12 1.1 Statement of Purpose 12 1.2 Review ..... 13 1.3 Research Goals . 14 1.4 Structure of the Dissertation 17 1.5 The Research Method 19 1.6 Sources ........ 20 2 PERSONAL COMPUTING AS PARADIGM .,., 2.1 The Concept of a Personal Computer . 22 2.2 Personal Computing Outside the CEMA 25 2.2.1 Overview of the Western Personal Computing Supply 26 2.2.2 Overview of Western Personal Computing Application. 28 '2.3 CEMA Access to Personal Computing Information . 28 2.4 CEMA Personal Computing Perceptions ..... 31 3 PERSONAL COMPUTING AS TECHNOLOG Y 33 3.1 Introduction .................... 33 6 3.2 Indigenous Capabilities ....... 34 3.2.1 The Soviet Microelectronics Industry . 35 3.2.2 East European Microelectronics . 42 3.2.3 Other Basic Technologies . 44 3.2.4 First Generation Soviet Personal Computer Technology (1979-1984) 45 3.3 Technology Transfer 48 3.4 Acquisition . 50 3.4.1 Acquisition as a Process . 52 3.4.2 The Importance of Acquisition 52 3.5 Diffusion ........... 55 4 PERSONAL COMPUTING AS COMMODITY 58 4.1 Introduction .... 58 4.2 Scope of Coverage . 58 4.3 The Personal Computer Inventory 59 4.3.1 Elektronika 60 Descendants . 59 4.3.2 The mM PC Architecture in the CEMA 62 4.3.3 Additional System Architectures 66 4.3.4 A Summary by Architecture 69 4.3.5 Production Volumes . 71 4.4 Domestic Production . 72 4.4.1 The Soviet Union 72 4.4.2 Hungary 77 4.5 Trade .. 81 7 4.5.1 The Soviet Union 81 4.5.2 Hungary ..... 83 4.6 The Three-Component Model 84 4.6.1 A Graphical Representation of the Model 91 4.6.2 Placement in the Graph . 91 4.7 Summary of Tedmologies and Commodities 95 5 PERSONAL COMPUTING AS TOOL 9X 5.1 Introduction 98 5.2 Education .. 98 5.2.1 Soviet Secondary Education and the PC 99 5.2.2 Hungary and Bulgaria . 104 5.3 Business Automation .. 107 5.4 PC Software in General 109 5.5 Industrial Automation 110 5.5.1 USSR 110 5.5.2 Hungary III 5.6 Other Applications 112 6 PERSONAL COMPUTI~G AS CHA:\GE II'" 6.1 Personal Computing as Source of Instability 114 6.1.1 Potential Threats Arising from the Application of Personal Computers 115 6.2 Personal Computing as a Source of Economic Revitalization . 121 6.3 Parallel Products and Issues . 123 8 6.3.1 The VCR ... 123 6.3.2 Infonnation as a Commodity 126 7 CONCLUSIO~S AND DIRECTIO~S FOR FUTURE RESEARCH 128 7.1 Conclusions. 128 7.1.1 The Stages of Personal Computing 129 7.2 Recommendations for an Export Control Policy Regarding Personal Com- puting ................ 139 7.2.1 The West-to-East Technology "Hood" 143 7.2.2 rrlec hn OOglCI . al "s aturatlon." ..... 144 7.2.3 A Strategic Plan for PC Export Control 144 7.2.4 Tactical Alternatives. 147 7.2.5 Recommendations . 148 7.3 Directions for Future Research, and Anticipated Issues in CEMA Personal Computing ................................ 149 APPENDIX A RESEARCH GROCP PUBLICATIO;\;S CSED I~ THIS STlJDY . 151 APPENDIX B MAJOR SOURCES 156 APPENDIX C SOVIET MICROELECTRONICS NO:\IE:\CLATVRE AND CLASSIFICATION. .. 158 APPE~DIX D SOVIET KI8XX SERIES MICROPROCESSOR FAMILIES 167 APPENDIX E SOVIET ME:\,IORY DEVICES .............. 171 APPENDIX F THE CEMA PERSONAL CO:\IPUTER INVE:\TORIES . 175 APPENDIX G GLOSSARY OF TERMS 187 REFERENCES 190 9 LIST OF FIGURES 3.1 East/West Microprocessor Time Line . .. 57 4.1 Intensity and Balance: A relative scaling of personal computing develop- ment and acquisition in. the CEMA community. ............. 93 10 LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Shifting Microcomputer Market [Keef87] . 27 2.2 Percentage by Year (From Table 2.1) . 27 3.1 Second Generation Microprocessor Series. [Stap85b] 37 3.2 Third Generation Microprocessor Series. [Dshk84] [Mala84] [Stap85b] 38 3.3 CEMA Microprocessors. [Mikr84] [Elek84] [Koco83] [Reim83] [Rafe81] [Roud83] . .. 43 4.1 Hungarian mM PC-Compatible Models [Broc86b] . 65 4.2 Number of Microcomputer and Minicomputer Types Manufactured by the Socialist Countries According to the Functional Equivalent of the Microprocessors Used (as of 1983). [Broc83] .............. 69 4.3 Number of 16-Bit Microcomputer Types of the Socialist Countries By Year. [Broc86c] . 70 4.4 Distribution by Microprocessor, Summary 70 5.1 The Introduction of the OIVT Course (from [Vest87]) 100 5.2 Computers in Soviet Education (from [Vest87]) 101 6.1 Video [KroI87]. 125 11 ABSTRACT The dissertNion covers a spectrum of issues relating to the creation, acquisition and application of personal computers in the CEMA economies. Personal computing is examined through five stages, each a step in the process of integration of personal computing into the economies. They consider personal computing as: 1. Paradigm, how the Soviets and East Europeans view personal computing and how that relates to Western developments; 2. Technology, with discussion of indigenous capabilities of the CEMA members. Major topics are the Soviet microprocessor inventory, and the mechanisms whereby indigenous capabilities are increased, in particular via technology transfer; 3. Commodity, relating the technologies to actual products and production levels achieved. 1bis stage also considers the availability of external sources (trade) for technology embodied as products; . 4. Tool, discussing the products in application.
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