Wiltshire Council Note on Housing Trajectories
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Chippenham Sites Allocation Plan Wiltshire Council Note on Housing Trajectories October 2016 1. Introduction 1.1 During the Hearing sessions on 4 October 2016, the Inspector examining the draft Chippenham Site Allocations Plan requested that Wiltshire Council produce a note on Housing Trajectories relating to the Plan area. 1.2 This note sets out an overview of housing delivery in Chippenham and the housing trajectory for Chippenham taking into account the policies within the draft Chippenham Site Allocations Plan1 and other large sites with planning permission/subject to the signing of a Section 106 agreement2,3. It uses information from the Wiltshire Housing Land Supply Statement 2015 and recent Statements of Common Ground prepared to support the Examination. 2. Historical rates of housing delivery 2.1 Figure 1 below illustrates the decline in housing completions in Chippenham over recent years4. Figure 1 Chippenham housing completions 1983 – 2015 1 CSAP/14 Chippenham Site Allocations Plan Incorporating proposed changes approved by Council May 2016 2 CHSG/03 Planning Application N/12/00560/OUT, North Chippenham 3 CHSG/04 Planning Application N/13/01747/FUL, Hunters Moon 4 CSAP/14 Chippenham Site Allocations Plan incorporating proposed changes approved by Council May 2016, change number S49, Page 43. 2.2 The pattern of housing completions, as illustrated in Figure 1, can be attributed to: The relatively low level of allocation at the town in the former North Wiltshire Local Plan A period of economic recession; followed by, Uncertainty around whether the Chippenham strategic sites would be allocated in the Wiltshire Core Strategy and Chippenham Site Allocations Plan. 3. The current situation 3.1 Monitoring has shown that, following the adoption of the Wiltshire Core Strategy, the number of dwellings under construction (as at April 2015) in Chippenham was 90 dwellings, which can be compared to 20 dwelling completions for the whole of the period April 2014 – April 20155. This is a good indicator that 2015-16 will see a marked increase in the number of housing completions within Chippenham. This perhaps reflects the changing circumstances in Chippenham compared to the period illustrated in Figure 1. 3.2 Development plans play a significant role in influencing the distribution of housing growth within an area; the absence of significant allocations in the Wiltshire Core Strategy for Chippenham clearly demonstrates this. It is therefore anticipated that once the Chippenham Site Allocations Plan is adopted, the rate of housing completions will increase significantly. Compared to the situation which resulted in the delivery rates illustrated in Figure 1 there is now: A recovering economy and an anticipated upturn in house building. A large amount of developer interest within Chippenham, with applications submitted on a number of large sites The Chippenham Site Allocations Plan is at an advanced stage with active developer interest 3.3 This is reflected in the level of developer interest in the strategic allocations proposed in the CSAP (including with their commitment to bring the sites forward – see Table 1)6 and in committed large sites. 4. Future delivery 4.1 The housing trajectories (Figure 2 and Table 2) outline the number of housing completions that are forecast to take place within the plan period up to 2026. This takes into account the policies (as proposed to be modified) within the Chippenham Site Allocations Plan and other large sites with planning permission/subject to the signing of a Section 106 agreement. 4.2 This represents a step change in comparison to recent annual completion rates. However these housing trajectories are not considered to be 5 CHSG/08 Wiltshire Housing Land Supply Statement 2015 6 Demonstrated in planning applications for Rowden Park CHSG/05 and Rawlings Green CHSG/10 which have recently been granted planning permission subject to the signing of a section 106 agreement unrealistic. The Chippenham site allocations will each be delivered by multiple outlets, with each outlet having the capacity to deliver in the region of 50-75 dwellings per annum7. These delivery rates are comparable to and based upon those seen in other large strategic developments within Wiltshire, as shown in Appendix 18. The multiple housing developers involved in delivering key sites, as outlined in Table 1, reduces the risk of sites not achieving the number of completions required to meet the Wiltshire Core Strategy requirement and adds security as sites across Chippenham are not reliant on any one developer in isolation to deliver homes. Table 1 Chippenham Site Allocations/Planning Application Developer Presence Site Developer Hunters Moon Bloor Homes Ltd North Chippenham Persimmon Homes and Barratt Homes South West Chippenham Crest Nicholson, Redcliffe Homes, Taylor Wimpey & Hollins Strategic Land 4.3 The data outlined in Table 2 and Figure 2 sets out the anticipated realistic delivery rate in terms of annual housing completions. The sources of the information are highlighted in Table 2. The data for Policies CH1 (South West Chippenham) and CH2 (Rawlings Green) have been obtained from the recently published SOCG910. Figure 2 forecast housing trajectory for Chippenham 2016-2026 7 The assumption that individual outlets can deliver 50-75 dwellings per annum comes from the Council’s annual housing survey records. Examples are provided in Appendix 1. 8 M12/1 Position Statement by Wiltshire Council on Matter 12, Monitoring and Implementation, October 2015 9 CSOCG/08a Statement of Common Ground between Wiltshire Council and Crest Nicholson & Redcliffe Homes Concerning Rowden Park. 10 CSOCG/09 Statement of Common Ground between Wiltshire Council & KBC Developments LLP Table 2 forecast housing trajectory breakdown for Chippenham 2016-2026 11,12,13 & 14 Annual Completion Rate Dwellings 2015/ 2016/ 2017/ 2018/ 2019/ 2020/ 2021/ 2022/ 2023/ 2024/ 2025/ 2026/ 2027/ 2028/ Site Address Outstanding 2016 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 North Chippenham 750 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 50 0 0 0 Hunters Moon 450 0 0 80 80 80 80 80 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 South West Chippenham 1400 0 0 60 150 175 175 175 200 200 90 50 50 50 25 Rawlings Green 650 0 0 0 20 80 80 155 155 160 0 0 0 0 0 Annual Total 3250 0 0 140 350 435 435 510 505 460 190 100 50 50 25 Cumulative Total 3250 0 0 140 490 925 1360 1870 2375 2835 3025 3125 3175 3225 3250 11 CHSG/08 Wiltshire Housing Land Supply Statement April 2015 (figures for North Chippenham, page 18) 12 CHSG/08 Wiltshire Housing Land Supply Statement April 2015 (figures for Hunters Moon, page 16) 13 CSAP/11 List of Proposed Modifications to Pre-Submission Draft Plan May 2016 – Change S50 (figures for South West Chippenham) 14 CSOCG/09 Statement of Common Ground between Wiltshire Council & KBC Developments LLP (figures for Rawlings Green) Appendix 1: Examples of Recorded Annual Housing Delivery Rates on Large Sites in Wiltshire Site Name Proposed Number of outlets yr 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 4 yr 5 yr 6 yr 7 yr 8 yr 9 Units Land East of Snowberry 771 5 (Persimmon/Charles Church, 9 144 186 165 181 Lane, Melksham Bloor Homes, Barratt Homes and David Wilson Homes) Castlemead, Trowbridge 650 2 (Persimmon/Charles Church) 4 94 147 150 Castle View, Laverstock (Old 630 2 (Persimmon/Charles Church) 26 154 99 108 144 95 70 Sarum) Land South of Boscombe 550 2 (Bloor and Persimmon) 4 103 154 131 113 53 76 96 4 Road, Amesbury Land North of 600 2 (Persimmon/Charles Church) 68 99 Tidworth/Riverbourne Fields 5 .