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Midterm Election Poll of Registered Voters

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Midterm Election Poll of Registered Voters Toplines: November 2018 University of Massachusetts Amherst Post- Midterm Election Poll of Registered Voters Field Dates: November 7 - November 14, 2018 Sample: 750 Registered Voters in Massachusetts Margin of Error: 4.1% for Registered Voters YouGov interviewed 796 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 750 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the Massachusetts portion of the 2016 Current Population Survey (CPS) with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. All figures presented in this document are for registered adults. UMass Poll Directors/Fellows Prof. Tatishe M. Nteta, Ph.D. – Director [email protected] Prof. Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. – Associate Director [email protected] Prof. Jesse Rhodes, Ph.D. – Associate Director [email protected] Kaylee Johnson, Research Fellow [email protected] Midterm Voter Turnout (N=750) Did you vote in the midterm election that ended on Tuesday, November 6th? Yes, I definitely voted in the midterm election 92% I did not vote in the election this November. 4% I thought about voting this time – but didn't. 1% I usually vote, but didn't this time. 2% I attempted to vote but did not or could 1% Type of Vote (N=691) In person on Election Day 75% In person before Election Day (Early Voting) 20% Voted by Mail (or absentee) 5% Senate Vote (N=683) In the election for U.S. Senate, which candidate did you vote for? Elizabeth Warren (Democrat) 60% Geoff Diehl (Republican) 36% Shiva Ayyadurai (Independent) 4% Governor Vote (N=677) In the election for Governor, which candidate did you vote for? Charlie Baker (Republican) 65% Jay Gonzalez (Democrat) 31% Other 4% Ballot Questions There were three questions on the ballot. How did you vote on each of the following ballot questions? (N=680) Question 1 –Limit the number of patients a single nurse can be assigned at a time and impose a $25,000 fine on hospitals violating those ratios. Yes 38% No 62% Question 2 –Create a citizen commission to promote a constitutional amendment that would overturn the Citizens United v. FEC Supreme Court decision on campaign finance. (N=666) Yes 67% No 33% [email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://www.umass.edu/poll 2 Question 3 –Support upholding Senate Bill 2407, which prohibits discrimination against transgender individuals in public places. (N=674) Yes 68% No 32% Me Too Movement (N=750) What is your view of the Me-Too Movement? Very Positive 30% Somewhat Positive 22% Neutral 15% Somewhat Negative 12% Very Negative 15% Don’t Know 7% Events Impact Recently, there has been a lot of talk about political events motivating people to turn out to vote in this year’s midterm election. Did any of the following events have an influence on your decision to turn out to vote on November 6th? A Lot Some Not Much Not At All President Donald 56% 16% 8% 21% Trump’s Administration (N=687) The attempted mail 55% 16% 08% 21% bombings of CNN and prominent Democratic leaders (N=688) Justice 41% 23% 10% 27% Kavanaugh’s nomination and confirmation to the Supreme Court (N=689) The Central 22% 16% 13% 49% American “Migrant Caravan” (N=687) The Pittsburgh 17% 20% 17% 46% synagogue shooting (N=687) [email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://www.umass.edu/poll 3 State of the Economy (N=750) Thinking about the state of our economy, would you rate the nation’s economy as excellent, good, fair, or poor Excellent 19% Good 49% Fair 28% Poor 5% How Similar: Baker, Trump, and GOP Please tell us your opinion concerning the following questions: When it comes to the positions they hold on important issues, would you say that Governor Charlie Baker and President Donald Trump are...? (N=741) Very Similar 2% Mostly Similar 17% Mostly Different 39% Very Different 33% Not Sure 9% When it comes to the positions they hold on important issues, would you say that Governor Charlie Baker and the Republican Party are...? (N=746) Very Similar 6% Mostly Similar 32% Mostly Different 41% Very Different 11% Not Sure 9% Nation Right Direction/Wrong Track (N=750) Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction 32% Wrong Track 68% MA Right Direction/Wrong Track (N=750) Do you think things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction 68% Wrong Track 32% [email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://www.umass.edu/poll 4 Transit Note: Results only for those that report using service in question. Option #4 (“the T”)shown only to respondents who live in: Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Bristol, Worcester, and Essex Counties. How would you rate the quality of the following forms of public transportation in the state? Excellent Good Fair Poor Very Poor Buses 4% 32% 42% 14% 7% (N=517) Amtrak 7% 40% 38% 11% 4% (N=475) Commuter 3% 34% 40% 17% 7% Rail (N=517) The “T” 3% 25% 37% 21% 14% (N=448) Trump/Media Effect 50% of respondents answered Trump Question and 50% answered Media Effect Question Some have argued that President Trump’s rhetoric has played a role in the recent spate of violent incidents, most notably the attempted mail bomb attacks on prominent Democrats and media figures as well as the mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue. Others have rejected the link between President Trump’s rhetoric and these recent crimes. How about you, do you agree or disagree that President Trump’s rhetoric has played a role in these recent violent incidents? (N=397) Strongly Agree 47% Somewhat Agree 14% Neither Agree nor Disagree 9% Somewhat Disagree 7% Strongly Disagree 23% Some have argued that the mass media has played a role in the recent spate of violent incidents, most notably the attempted mail bomb attacks on prominent Democrats and media figures as well as the mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue. Others have rejected the link between the mass media and these recent crimes. How about you, do you agree or disagree that the mass media has played a role in these recent violent incidents? (N=353) Strongly Agree 23% Somewhat Agree 26% Neither Agree nor Disagree 26% Somewhat Disagree 10% Strongly Disagree 14% [email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://www.umass.edu/poll 5 Immigration Policies Do you support or oppose the following proposals? A bill that would prevent state and local police from participating in U.S. Immigration and Customs (ICE) investigations or raids. (N=743) Strongly Support 26% Somewhat Support 13% Neither Support nor Oppose 23% Somewhat Oppose 7% Strongly Oppose 31% A bill that would prevent children born in the United States to parents of non-citizens or unauthorized immigrants from automatically being given U.S. citizenship. (N=745) Strongly Support 24% Somewhat Support 10% Neither Support nor Oppose 12% Somewhat Oppose 9% Strongly Oppose 45% 2020 MA Senate Democratic Primary Questions asked only of respondents who identified as a registered Democrat or Independent. In 2020, Senator Edward Markey will be up for re-election. If Senator Markey was running against Attorney General Maura Healey in the Democratic presidential primary for senator, who would you be most likely to vote for? (N=635) Senator Edward Markey 26% Attorney General Maura Healey 27% Not Sure 35% Would Not Vote 12% What if the candidates were Markey and Representative Seth Moulton, who would you be most likely to vote for in the Democratic presidential primary? (N=636) Senator Edward Markey 29% Representative Seth Moulton 25% Not Sure 38% Would Not Vote 8% [email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://www.umass.edu/poll 6 Democratic Primary (N=655) Question only asked if respondent self-identifies as Democrat or Independent. If the 2020 Presidential Democratic primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would you support in the Democratic primary. Senator Elizabeth Warren 11% Former Governor Deval Patrick 6% Representative Seth Moulton 1% Senator Cory Booker 3% Senator Kamala Harris 6% Senator Amy Klobuchar 3% Senator Bernie Sanders 14% Former Vice President Joe Biden 19% Representative Beto O’Rourke 10% Don’t Know 27% Republican Primary Question only asked if respondent self-identifies as Republican or Independent. 50% were asked question with President Trump in Primary and 50% were asked question without President Trump in Primary. If the 2020 Presidential Republican primary were held today, and President Trump decided to not seek a second term, which one of the following candidates would you support in the Republican primary? (N=225) Governor John Kasich 7% Former Governor Mitt Romney 8% Senator Jeff Flake 1% Governor Charlie Baker 33% Vice President Mike Pence 26% Speaker Paul Ryan 2% Don’t Know 22% If the 2020 Presidential Republican primary were held today which one of the following candidates would you support in the Republican primary? (N=227) Governor John Kasich 3% Former Governor Mitt Romney 7% Senator Jeff Flake 1% Governor Charlie Baker 30% Speaker Paul Ryan 2% President Donald Trump 40% Don’t Know 16% [email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://www.umass.edu/poll 7 Trust in Media Respondents who live in: Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Bristol, Worcester, Essex, and Plymouth Counties saw WBZ and WGBH as options.
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