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Climate Variability and Heat Stress Index Have Increasing Potential Ill-Health and Environmental Impacts in the East London, South Africa

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Climate Variability and Heat Stress Index Have Increasing Potential Ill-Health and Environmental Impacts in the East London, South Africa International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 12, Number 17 (2017) pp. 6910-6918 © Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com Climate Variability and Heat Stress Index have Increasing Potential Ill-health and Environmental Impacts in the East London, South Africa Orimoloye Israel Ropo*, Mazinyo Sonwabo Perez, Nel Werner and Iortyom Enoch T. Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Fort Hare, Private Bag X1314, Alice, 5700, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. *Corresponding author *Orcid ID: 0000-0001-5058-2799 Abstract activities and recent development in the region [3]. Furthermore, an investigation of extreme heat since 2003 in Impacts identified with climate variability and heat stress are Europe demonstrates that a considerable lot of the extremes already obvious in various degrees and expected to be recorded during this occasion are at least double as likely in the disruptive in the near future across the globe. Heat Index 1950s [4, 5]. In North America, there is the expected increment describes the joint impact of temperature and humidity on the in the number of hot days over the region [6]. Moreover, some human body. Therefore, we investigated the trend of relative African nations including South Africa likewise experience the humidity, temperature, heat index, and humidex and their ill effects of the outcomes of climate inconstancy in relation to likelihood impacts on human health in the East London over 3 heat-related threats [7, 8]. decades. Real-time data for daily average maximum temperature and relative humidity between 8:00 GMT and It is well known that the discomfort that occurs in warm 18:00GMT hour for the period of 1986-2016 were retrieved weather depends on the significant degree of temperature and from the South Africa Weather Service and analyzed using the humidity present in the air. The linkage between mortality and new empirical heat index method to assess heat stress index in temperature have been examined by some researchers [9-11] the study area. Results demonstrated that summer and autumn but more still need to be done, because most of the studies used season (December to May) of various years over East London a threshold that is suitable to their location in order to assess from 1986 to 2016 exceed high heat index values that is, when heat index in different location with their own peculiarity heat index is 38°C above. It is evident that summer and autumn including weather pattern and geographical location. The months are more vulnerable to heat extreme and humidex as climate in the recent years is characterized by rapidly increased both shows high limits. The humidex and heat index increased intensity of extreme heat, and this has numerous effects on annually with 0.03% and 0.9% respectively throughout the human well-being and health. Health implications of climate study period. The increment in the various indices showed variability have become a focal point and considered as a highly significant ill health and environmental health impact on crucial issue among the researchers [12]. humans especially during prolonged exposure. Several indices have been employed in studying the human Keywords: climate variability; human health; environmental health implications of climate variability and extreme weather. health; implications; heat index Some of the studies used heat index (United States Weather Service [13, 14]), humidex (Canadian meteorologist; [15]), wet-bulb globe temperature [16, 17] and apparent temperature INTRODUCTION [18, 19] to assess heat index indications of climate variability on human health, while other researchers have to use different Globally, increased temperatures have induced more pressing, algorithm to assess heat index, although with varying continuous, and vast extreme heat occurrences, which are now shortcomings. In assessing the extreme heat implications on viewed as a significant issue for public and environmental human thermal comfort and health, most of study, have used health [1]. Increments are expected in both "exceedingly ambient temperature (maximum, minimum and average irregular" occasions, for example, those in Central Asia and temperature) [20-22]. Moreover, extreme weather implications Russia in 2010, the United States in 2012, and Australia in cannot be fully assessed with the temperature only, but other 2015, and "exceptional" circumstances, which do not happen indicators such as solar radiation, wind, and relative humidity under present-day climate situations [2]. A recent study opines should be considered to give a precise effect on human health. that the likelihood of extreme heat events in some parts of the Among these indicators, the immediate surroundings have world such as Eastern China, Europe have increased sixtyfold more effects on wind and radiation, for example, wind speed is since the 1950s which might be a result of anthropogenic reduced by the buildings effects as well as trees. 6910 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 12, Number 17 (2017) pp. 6910-6918 © Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com Figure 1: East London Area in Buffalo City metropolitan municipality, South Africa. Solar radiation is effected by localized events, which include 18:00GMT hour for the period of 1986-2016 was obtained from cloudiness and visibility. If wind and radiation are to be the South African Weather Service to assess the heat stress considered as heat index variables, they are most suitable for a index in the study area. location as they can vary significantly in values over a short distance [23]. The other two factors that are popularly used include relative humidity and air temperature because they are Heat Index not spatially varied and these can be utilized to give a signal of The calculation of heat index, described as an individually the thermal comfort status over a large area [23]. Therefore, this perceived air temperature, incorporated with relative humidity study appraised the indications of climate variability and heat was conducted using South African Weather Service’s stress index on human health using new empirical methods of meteorological parameters (air temperature and humidity). The heat index and humidex for the period of 1986 to 2016 spanning heat index measures the evaporative heat between the human 30 years over East London, South Africa (Fig 1). body and the surrounding air (environment). Using the heat index is the more appropriate measure to assess the significant effects of heat on human body than using temperature only. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using an algorithm, Steadman [24] propose the method for the East London City (EL), the hub of Buffalo City Metropolitan actual estimation of the human-discerned equivalent Municipality (BCMM), represents one of the largest South temperature, Steadman [24] proposed algorithm comprised a African urbanized areas with Latitude 32° 59′ 0″S and group of climatic variables such as vapor pressure or dimension Longitude 27° 52′ 0″E. EL’s location is in the South-eastern of human skin surface and clothing cover or resistance to heat area of the country close to the Indian Ocean and which is well movement or activities. The algorithm approximates the heat exposed to the movement of southeasterly wind over a short index in degrees Fahrenheit, to a confidence of ±1.3 °F. It is the distance from the ocean to the land and this defines the outcome of a multivariate fit (temperature equivalent to or temperate weather context characterized by mild and raining greater than 27°C (80°F) and relative humidity equivalent to or winters and dry and hot summers. greater than 40%) to what human body can manage [24, 25]. This condition is constituent with the NOAA National Weather The real-time data of monthly daily average maximum Service (NWS) threshold (with the exception of the qualities at temperature and relative humidity between 8:00 GMT and 32 °C (90°F) and 45%/70% relative humidity which fluctuate 6911 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 12, Number 17 (2017) pp. 6910-6918 © Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com unrounded by less than - 1/+1, respectively). The Heat Index is Humidex calculated as follow: This index was developed by Canadian meteorologists and was HI = (-42.379 + 2.04901523*T) + (10.14333127*R - first used to describe the impacts of humidity on human 0.22475541*T*R) – (0.00683783*T² - 0.05481717*R²) + comfort. In a warm day, it will feel warmer if the relative (0.00122874*T²*R + 0.00085282*T*R² - 0.00000199*T²R²) humidity is high because human perspiration does not evaporate as easily especially when the humidity is high. A (eq. 1) humidex value that is over 40°C is considered an extreme Where weather event [27]. When the humidex value reaches the 30°C, outdoor activity should be properly managed with special All the figures in the equation are constant; attention paid to the aged and the minors as well as the health HI = Heat index (usually expressed as an apparent temperature of any adult individual [28]. in Fahrenheit) Humidex value is an equivalent temperature (the temperature T = Temperature in Fahrenheit that human body would feel) given the temperature and relative humidity. The humidex equation is based on Masterson and R = Relative humidity (%) Richardson [29], which was later adopted by Canadian the substitute set of constants for this condition is within 3 meteorologist, but its variations are used around the world and degrees of the NWS master index for all humidity from 0% and the dew point temperature will be measured in Kelvin for the all temperatures in the vicinity of 22°C (70°F) and 46 °C formula to work perfectly. (117°F) and all heat index < 65°C (150 °F) is the New Empirical Humidex = T + b Model (NEM) [26] below; 2 2 2 2 b = (0.5555) * (a -10.0) HI= K1 + K2T + K3R + K4TR + K5T + K6R + K7T R + K8TR 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 ퟏ ퟏ + K9T R + K10T + K11R + K12T R + K13TR + K14T R + 풂 = ퟔ.
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