DOCSLIB.ORG

S3NA-113-ATT1 Temperature Thresholds

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
S3NA-113-ATT1 Temperature Thresholds EMIA Temperature Thresholds S3EMIA-113-ATT1 1.0 Work-Rest Schedule The prevention of heat stress is best performed through Supervisor observation of Employees and routine heat stress awareness training activities. However, it is also necessary to implement a work routine that incorporates adequate rest periods to allow Employees to remove protective clothing, drink fluids (vital when extreme sweating is occurring), rest and recover. The frequency and length of work breaks shall be determined by the Supervisor based upon the ambient temperature, amount of sunshine, humidity, the amount of physical labor being performed, the physical condition of the Employees (e.g., acclimated/not), and protective clothing being used. 1.1 Establishing a Work-Rest Schedule: 1.1.1 AECOM permits the use of either of two techniques to initially determine an appropriate daily work- rest schedule. These methods are: Wet Bulb Globe Thermometer (WBGT) Method: This method is preferred if a WBGT meter is available. Adjusted Temperature Method: This method should be used only if WBGT data is not available. 1.1.2 Either procedure will provide the Supervisor with a recommended routine; however, adjustments to this routine may be required to accommodate the specific daily conditions at the work site. 1.2 WBGT Work-Rest Schedule Guidelines: 1.2.1 If the measured WBGT is less than the action limit value, there is little risk of excessive exposure to heat stress, and work can continue. Continue to monitor ambient conditions with the WBGT. However, if there are reports of the symptoms of heat-related disorders, then the analysis of little risk should be reconsidered. If the measured WBGT is greater than the values in the following two tables, institute heat stress controls, including the associated work-rest cycle, and perform physiological monitoring as described in S3EMIA-113-PR1 Heat Stress. Because of the physiological strain associated with very heavy work among less fit workers regardless of WBGT, values are not provided in Table 1 or 2 for continuous work or 75% work – 25% rest regimen. Physiological monitoring should always be implemented under these conditions. 1.2.2 Table 1, the Non-CPC Activities WBGT Chart, is intended for use where personnel are not utilizing Chemical Protective Clothing (CPC). Where workers are required to utilize CPC, Table 2, the CPC Activities WBGT Chart, will be used. 1.2.3 WBGT readings are compared directly with the values of the applicable WBGT Chart for the applicable work rate (where light work corresponds to minimal physical activity besides standing/watching; very heavy work corresponds to significant, continuous physical labor) to determine the work-rest frequency. Table 1. Non-CPC Activities WBGT Chart WBGT Work-Rest Regimen Light Work Moderate Work Heavy Work Very Heavy Work Continuous Work 85F (29.4C) 81F (27.2C) 78F (25.6C) 75% Work – 25% Rest 86F (30C) 83F (28.3C) 81F (27.2C) 50% Work – 50% Rest 88F (31.1C) 85F (29.4C) 83F (28.3C) 81F (27.2C) 25% Work – 75% Rest 90F (32.2C) 87F (30.6C) 86F (30C) 85F (29.4C) Modified from ACGIH’s 2014 Threshold Limit Values for Chemical Substances and Physical Agents, for acclimatized workers. Temperature Thresholds (S3EMIA-113-ATT1) Revision 0 October 13, 2016 PRINTED COPIES ARE UNCONTROLLED. CONTROLLED COPY IS AVAILABLE ON COMPANY INTRANET. 1 of 5 Table 2. CPC Activities WBGT Chart WBGT Work-Rest Regimen Light Work Moderate Work Heavy Work Very Heavy Work Continuous Work 74F (23.3C) 70F (21.1C) 67F (19.4C) 75% Work – 25% Rest 75F (23.9C) 72F (22.2C) 70F (21.1C) 50% Work – 50% Rest 77F (25C) 74F (23.3C) 72F (22.2C) 70F (21.1C) 25% Work – 75% Rest 79F (26.1C) 76F (24.4C) 75F (23.9C) 74F (23.3C) Modified from ACGIH’s 2014 Threshold Limit Values for Chemical Substances and Physical Agents, for acclimatized workers. 1.3 Humidex Based Work-Rest Schedule Guidelines 1.3.1 The Humidex method is a simplified way of protecting workers from heat stress. It is an equivalent scale intended to express the combined effects of warm temperatures and humidity. Humidex is used as a measure of perceived heat that results from the combined effect of excessive humidity and high temperature. 1.3.2 This method requires only a local air temperature and relative humidity value. Monitoring shall continue throughout the day for changing conditions. Identify a representative location where measurements can be taken. Measurements should be recorded at least hourly when ambient temperatures and 90°F (32°C) for personnel wearing normal permeable work clothes. Step 1: On the Humidex table below, look up the temperature on the left (Celsius is located below RH>) and the relative humidity (RH) on the top. Determine the Humidex value. F RH> 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 108 42 55 52 50 48 46 106 41 55 53 51 48 46 44 104 40 55 53 51 49 47 45 43 102 39 55 53 51 49 47 45 43 41 100 38 Step 1 - Determine HUMIDEX VALUE 54 53 51 49 47 45 43 42 40 99 37 54 52 51 49 47 45 44 42 40 38 97 36 57 55 53 52 50 49 47 45 44 42 40 39 37 95 35 56 54 53 51 50 48 47 45 43 42 40 39 37 36 93 34 56 55 53 52 51 49 48 46 45 43 42 40 39 37 36 34 91 33 55 54 53 51 50 48 47 46 44 43 41 40 39 37 36 34 33 90 32 53 51 50 49 48 46 45 44 42 41 40 38 37 36 34 33 32 88 31 50 49 48 47 45 44 43 42 40 39 38 37 35 34 33 32 30 86 30 48 47 46 44 43 42 41 40 39 37 36 35 34 33 31 30 29 84 29 46 45 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 32 31 30 29 28 82 28 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 81 27 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 79 26 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 77 25 37 36 35 34 33 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 26 25 24 23 Temperature Thresholds (S3EMIA-113-ATT1) Revision 0 October 13, 2016 PRINTED COPIES ARE UNCONTROLLED. CONTROLLED COPY IS AVAILABLE ON COMPANY INTRANET. 2 of 5 Step 2: Place the Humidex value into the Heat Index Adjustment Table below. Determine the applicable adjustments based on the given work or task. Heat Index Adjustment Table Step 2 - Risk Factor Adjustment Write in value What is the HUMIDEX value from the table in Step 1? Radiant Heat Adjustment Working in full-sun Add 2 Working in ½ or partial sun or weak radiant heat source Add 1 Working near very hot equipment surfaces or processes Add 2 Clothing: Pick One Only Short/long sleeve shirt and pants – no overalls None Overalls (e.g., Nomex suit) Add 3 Double layer overalls Add 5 Stop Impermeable clothing Perform Physiological Monitoring Acclimatization Have been working at least 5 of last 7 days in heat stress conditions. Subtract 4 Work Load & Miscellaneous Factors Light Work (Standing, slow walking) Subtract 2 Medium Work (Walking about with moderate lifting or pushing) None Heavy Work (Shoveling dry sand, carrying 50 lbs) Add 2 Very Heavy Work (Shoveling wet sand) Add 3 TOTAL – Compare to Heat Index Response Plan Step 3: Compare adjusted Heat Index Total to the Heat Index Response Plan table to obtain guidance for work/rest. Heat Index Response Plan* TOTAL Final Step 3 - HEAT INDEX Response NUMBER 30-33 alert & information & water 34-37 warning & increase water 38-39 75% work - 25% rest & monitor for signs of heat stress 40-41 50% work - 50% rest & monitor for signs of heat stress 42-44 25% work - 75% rest & monitor for signs of heat stress 45+ Perform Physiological Monitoring * Percent work and rest/recovery are on a per hour basis. Adjustments and subsequent work/rest cycle recommendations are rough guidelines only. No heat stress prediction scheme can replace monitoring of symptoms or a health care practitioners advice in the case of individuals with special medical conditions or predisposing circumstances for heat related illness. Always pay attention to the way workers are feeling. Recuperate if fatigued, nauseated, dizzy or thirsty, Temperature Thresholds (S3EMIA-113-ATT1) Revision 0 October 13, 2016 PRINTED COPIES ARE UNCONTROLLED. CONTROLLED COPY IS AVAILABLE ON COMPANY INTRANET. 3 of 5 1.4 Adjusted Temperature Work-Rest Schedule Guidelines: This method can be utilized where WBGT data is not available, and requires only that the ambient temperature be known. Adjustment factors are applied to the ambient temperature to account for departures from ideal conditions (sunny conditions, light winds, moderate humidity and a fully acclimated work force). The adjustments will be made by addition or subtraction to the ambient temperature reading, or changes in table position, as indicated in Table 3. Adjustments are independent and cumulative, all applicable adjustments should be applied. The result is the Adjusted Temperature, which can be compared with the values in Table 4 for the applicable work rate (where light work corresponds to minimal physical activity besides standing/watching; very heavy work corresponds to significant, continuous physical labor) to determine the work-rest schedule. Table 3. Temperature Adjustment Factors Time of Day Before daily temperature peak1 +2F (+1.11C) 10 am – 2 pm (peak sunshine) +2F (+1.11C) Sunshine No clouds +1F (+0.56C) Partly Cloudy (3/8 – 5/8 cloud cover) -3F (-1.67C) Mostly Cloudy (5/8 – 7/8 cloud cover) -5F (-2.78C) Cloudy (>7/8 cloud cover) -7F (-3.89C) Indoor or nighttime work -7F (-3.89C) Wind (ignore if indoors or wearing CPC) Gusts greater than 5 miles per hour at least once per minute -1F (-0.56C) Gusts greater than 10 miles per hour at least once per minute +2F (+1.11C) Sustained greater than 5 miles per hour -3F (-1.67C) Sustained greater than 10 miles per hour -5F (-2.78C) Humidity (ignore if wearing CPC) Relative Humidity greater than
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Climate Variability and Heat Stress Index Have Increasing Potential Ill-Health and Environmental Impacts in the East London, South Africa
    International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 12, Number 17 (2017) pp. 6910-6918 © Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com Climate Variability and Heat Stress Index have Increasing Potential Ill-health and Environmental Impacts in the East London, South Africa Orimoloye Israel Ropo*, Mazinyo Sonwabo Perez, Nel Werner and Iortyom Enoch T. Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Fort Hare, Private Bag X1314, Alice, 5700, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. *Corresponding author *Orcid ID: 0000-0001-5058-2799 Abstract activities and recent development in the region [3]. Furthermore, an investigation of extreme heat since 2003 in Impacts identified with climate variability and heat stress are Europe demonstrates that a considerable lot of the extremes already obvious in various degrees and expected to be recorded during this occasion are at least double as likely in the disruptive in the near future across the globe. Heat Index 1950s [4, 5]. In North America, there is the expected increment describes the joint impact of temperature and humidity on the in the number of hot days over the region [6]. Moreover, some human body. Therefore, we investigated the trend of relative African nations including South Africa likewise experience the humidity, temperature, heat index, and humidex and their ill effects of the outcomes of climate inconstancy in relation to likelihood impacts on human health in the East London over 3 heat-related threats [7, 8]. decades. Real-time data for daily average maximum temperature and relative humidity between 8:00 GMT and It is well known that the discomfort that occurs in warm 18:00GMT hour for the period of 1986-2016 were retrieved weather depends on the significant degree of temperature and from the South Africa Weather Service and analyzed using the humidity present in the air.
    [Show full text]
  • Installation & Owner's Manual
    Sept 2019 Humidex DVS Rev. 1.2En Installation & Owner’s Manual English This Manual Covers the Following Models DVS-CS → Crawl Space DVS-HW → Pony Wall DVS-BS → Basement DVS-CH → Heavy Duty Crawl Space DVS-BH → Heavy Duty Basement Manufactured by: ClairiTech Innovations Inc. 1095 Ohio Rd. Boudreau-Ouest, NB Canada E4P 6N4 Humidex Table of Contents Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... 1 Service and Warranty ................................................................................................................. 2 FOR CUSTOMER ASSISTANCE ........................................................................................................................ 2 CONSUMER LIMITED WARRANTY ................................................................................................................ 3 Pre-Installation .......................................................................................................................... 4 INCLUDED COMPONENTS ............................................................................................................................. 4 TOOLS REQUIRED FOR INSTALLATION ....................................................................................................... 4 KEY INSTALLATION FACTS ........................................................................................................................... 4 IMPORTANT – WHAT NOT TO DO .........................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Epidemiologic Study of Mortality During the Summer of 2003 in Italy
    P 1.8 EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDY OF MORTALITY DURING THE SUMMER OF 2003 IN ITALY Susanna Conti *,Paola Meli *, Giada Minelli *, Renata So limini * Virgilia Toccaceli *, Monica Vichi *, M. Carmen Beltrano °° , Luigi Perini ° *National Centre of Epidemiology - Italian High er Institute for Health, Rome, Italy (°) Ufficio Centrale di Ecologia Agraria, Roma – Italy 1. INTRODUCTION the temperature (and humidity) are high and Italy is characterized by Mediterranean climate: persistent also during the night, compared with this sort of climate is usually defined temperate. those living in suburban and rural areas (“urban Seasons are clearly drawn: winter is generally heat island effect”). Heat-wave maximum effects moderate cold, spring is rainy with sunny days, essentially regard old people: there is an increase summer is warm and dry, autumn is almost of their mortality percentage because they have a cloudless, quite rainy, but never severe. During the reduced ability to thermo-regulate body temperature summer there are scarce or null rainfall and and their sweating threshold is generally more temperatures are not usually higher than 35°C. elevated than younger people; moreover, they are Rarely there are meteorological extreme events and affected by other risk-factors linked to the high generally they regard limited areas. frequency of disability, disease, and loneliness. Heat-waves can be defined as extreme and exceptional events, but it has been observed that in the last decades they became more frequent in 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS different parts
    [Show full text]
  • How Hot Is It? Reprinted with Permission from IST-Aim
    A F C I n t e r n a t i o n a l , I n c . G a s D e t e c ti o n & Air M o nitori n g S p e ci a lists How Hot Is It? Reprinted with permission from IST-Aim Mankind has often been concerned with sultriness of his environment. For some this is a mere curiosity or a comfort factor. For others it can be life threatening. In order to determine the actual degree of sultriness in a quantifiable manner several temperature indexes have been developed. Perhaps the most common one is "Humidex". It's technical name is "Apparent Temperature". This index measures the effects of humidity and temperature combined into one value to give a rough impression of how hot it feels or the sultriness. This index does have short- comings, in that it does not include the effect of wind. The little known "Corrected Effective Temperature Index" included a wind speed factor. There is another index, which incudes the effects of humidity, air speed, air temperature and the radi- ant heating factor (from the sun). This index was developed by the U.S. Military in the 1950's and has become widely accepted across the globe for industrial temperature measurements to protect employees. It's called the "wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index". It can be measured with a 6" black sphere containing a thermometer, a naturally ventilated wet thermometer, called a Wet Bulb and a regular air temperature thermometer called a Dry Bulb. There are also instruments available which measure this temperature index directly combining the three factors and their appropriate weighting values.
    [Show full text]
  • Humidex Based Heat Response Plan
    Occupational Health Clinics for Ontario Workers Inc. Humidex Based Heat Response Plan What is it? The Humidex plan is a simplified way of protecting workers from heat stress which is based on the 2009 ACGIH Heat Stress TLV® (Threshold Limit Value®) which uses wet bulb globe temperatures (WBGT) to estimate heat strain. These WBGT’s were translated into Humidex. The ACGIH specifies an action limit and a TLV® to prevent workers’ body temperature from exceeding 38°C (38.5°C for acclimatized workers). Below the action limit (Humidex 1 for work of moderate physical activity) most workers will not experience heat stress. Between Humidex 1 and Humidex 2, general heat stress controls are to be provided. Above Humidex 2 job-specific controls are needed for acclimatized workers. For unacclimatized workers job-specific controls may also be needed to reduce heat strain below the TLV® (Humidex 2) criteria. The TLV® (Humidex 2) only applies to healthy, well-hydrated, acclimatized** workers who are not on medication. Note: in the translation process some simplifications and assumptions have been made, therefore, the plan may not be applicable in all circumstances and/or workplaces (follow steps #1-5 to ensure the Humidex plan is appropriate for your workplace). Humidex 1 Response Humidex 2 25 – 29 supply water to workers on an “as needed” basis 32 – 35 post Heat Stress Alert notice; 30 – 33 encourage workers to drink extra water; 36 – 39 start recording hourly temperature and relative humidity post Heat Stress Warning notice; 34 – 37 notify workers
    [Show full text]
  • Guidelines on Cross-Border Exchange of Warnings
    World Meteorological Organization GUIDELINES ON CROSS-BORDER EXCHANGE OF WARNINGS PWS-9 WMO/TD No. 1179 Authors: Jim Davidson (Australia), Hilda Lam and CY Lam (Hong Kong, China), Stewart Wass (UK), Charles Dupuy and Federic Chavaux (France) Edited by: Haleh Kootval Cover: Rafiek El Shanawani Cover photograph: Météo-France, meteorological vigilance map © 2003, World Meteorological Organization WMO/TD No. 1179 NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of any of the participating agencies concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concern- ing the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION . 1 CHAPTER 2 – GENERAL PRINCIPLES . 2 2.1 Media as a Driving Force . 2 2.2 Focus on Public Safety . 2 2.3 Flexible Threshold Criteria . 2 2.4 Scope of Cooperation . 2 CHAPTER 3 – EXAMPLES OF CROSS-BORDER EXCHANGE OF WARNINGS . 3 3.1 Austria . 3 3.2 China – the Pearl River Estuary . 3 3.2.1 Background . 3 3.2.2 Warnings in Hong Kong . 3 3.2.3 Warnings in Macao and Guangzhou . 3 3.2.4 Coordination and Consultation . 3 3.2.5 Enhanced Data Exchange . 4 3.2.6 Annual Technical Conferences . 5 3.3 Nordic Countries . 5 3.4 Cross-border Exchanges between Germany, France and the Czech Republic . .5 3.5 The European Multi-purpose Awareness (EMMA) Programme . 6 3.5.1 Background . 6 3.5.2 The EMMA Programme . 6 3.5.3 Preconditions and Formal Arrangements .
    [Show full text]
  • Installation & Owner's Manual
    September 2019 Humidex HCS Rev. 2.1 En Installation & Owner’s Manual English This Manual Covers the Following Models HCS-APT-HDEX HCS-APTHC-HDEX Manufactured by: ClairiTech Innovations Inc. 1095 Ohio Rd. Boudreau-Ouest, NB Canada E4P 6N4 Humidex Table of Contents Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... 1 Service and Warranty ................................................................................................................. 2 FOR CUSTOMER ASSISTANCE ........................................................................................................................ 2 CONSUMER LIMITED WARRANTY ................................................................................................................ 3 PRE-INSTALLATION ....................................................................................................................................... 4 INCLUDED COMPONENTS ............................................................................................................................. 4 TOOLS REQUIRED FOR INSTALLATION ....................................................................................................... 4 KEY INSTALLATION FACTS ........................................................................................................................... 4 IMPORTANT – WHAT NOT TO DO .......................................................................................................... 4 COMBUSTION
    [Show full text]
  • An Evaluation of Summer Discomfort in Niš (Serbia) Using Humidex
    www.gi.sanu.ac.rs, www.doiserbia.nb.rs J. Geogr. Inst. Cvijic. 2019, 69(2), pp. 109–122 Original scientific paper UDC: 911.2:551.586(497.11) https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1902109L Received: March 12, 2019 Reviewed: June 12, 2019 Accepted: July 5, 2019 AN EVALUATION OF SUMMER DISCOMFORT IN NIŠ (SERBIA) USING HUMIDEX Milica Lukić1*, Milica Pecelj2,3,4, Branko Protić1, Dejan Filipović1 1University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, Belgrade, Serbia; e-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 2 Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, Belgrade, Serbia; e-mail: [email protected] 3University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Philosophy, Department of Geography, East Sarajevo, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina 4South Ural State University, Institute of Sports, Tourism and Service, Chelyabinsk, Russia Abstract: The bioclimatic analysis of the central area of the city of Niš conducted in this paper is based on the use of the bioclimatic index Humidex, which represents subjective outdoor temperature that one feels in warm and humid environment. The purpose of this research is to observe the index change on a daily basis during the hottest part of the year (June, July, and August) over the period from 1998 to 2017. For the purposes of this analysis, hourly (7:00, 14:00), maximum and mean daily values of meteorological parameters (air temperature and relative humidity) were used, for the period of 20 years (1998–2017), which were measured at Niš weather station (43°19'N, 21°53'E, at an altitude of 202 meters). The findings indicate a gradual change in the bioclimatic characteristics of this area during this period, especially over the last decade.
    [Show full text]
  • Installation & Owner's Manual
    September 2019 Humidex HCV Rev. 4.4 En Installation & Owner’s Manual English This Manual Covers the Following Models HCV-APT-HDEX HCV-APTHC-HDEX Manufactured by: ClairiTech Innovations Inc. 1095 Ohio Rd. Boudreau-Ouest, NB Canada E4P 6N4 Humidex Table of Contents Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... 1 Service and Warranty ................................................................................................................. 3 FOR CUSTOMER ASSISTANCE ........................................................................................................................ 3 CONSUMER LIMITED WARRANTY ................................................................................................................ 4 PRE-INSTALLATION ....................................................................................................................................... 5 INCLUDED COMPONENTS ............................................................................................................................. 5 TOOLS REQUIRED FOR INSTALLATION ....................................................................................................... 5 KEY INSTALLATION FACTS ........................................................................................................................... 5 IMPORTANT – WHAT NOT TO DO .......................................................................................................... 5 COMBUSTION
    [Show full text]
  • Installation & Owner's Manual
    April 2019 Humidex HCS myHome Rev 2.1 En Installation & Owner’s Manual English This Manual Covers the Following Models (Basement) HCS-BS-HDEX myHome (Crawl Space) HCS-CS-HDEX myHome (BoosterFan) HCS-BSF-HDEX myHome (Apartment/Slab) HCS-APT-HDEX myHome HCS-APTHC-HDEX myHome (Hard Connect) Manufactured by: ClairiTech Innovations Inc. 1095 Ohio Rd. Boudreau-Ouest, NB Canada E4P 6N4 READ AND SAVE THESE INSTRUCTIONS Humidex Table of Contents Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 3 COMBUSTION APPLIANCE PRESENT IN DWELLING .................................................................................. 3 Service and Warranty ................................................................................................................. 4 FOR CUSTOMER ASSISTANCE ........................................................................................................................ 4 CONSUMER LIMITED WARRANTY ................................................................................................................ 5 PRE-INSTALLATION........................................................................................................................................ 6 INCLUDED COMPONENTS ............................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • The Population Health Impacts of Heat Key Learnings from the Victorian Heat Health Information Surveillance System 2011–2013
    The population health impacts of heat Key learnings from the Victorian Heat Health Information Surveillance System 2011–2013 The population health impacts of heat Key learnings from the Victorian Heat Health Information Surveillance System 2011–2013 i To receive this publication in an accessible format phone (03) 9096 000, using the National Relay Service 13 36 77 if required. Authorised and published by the Victorian Government, 1 Treasury Place, Melbourne. © State of Victoria, June, 2015. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit the State of Victoria as author, indicate if changes were made and comply with the other licence terms. The licence does not apply to any branding including the Victorian Government logo, images or artistic works. Except where otherwise indicated, the images in this publication show models and illustrative settings only, and do not necessarily depict actual services, facilities or recipients of services. This publication may contain images of deceased Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Where the term ‘Aboriginal’ is used it refers to both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Indigenous is retained when it is part of the title of a report, program or quotation. ISBN/ISSN 978-0-7311-6740-1 (pdf) Available at www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus (1506001) ii Contents List of tables iv List of figures iv Acknowledgements iv Summary 1 Introduction
    [Show full text]
  • Local Warming. 5 5 Average Daily Temperature Minus Seasonal Cycle and Solar Cycle at Mcguire AFB
    LOCAL WARMING ROBERT J. VANDERBEI ∗ Abstract. Using 55 years of daily average temperatures from a local weather station, I made a least-absolute-deviations (LAD) regression model that accounts for three effects: seasonal variations, the 11-year solar cycle, and a linear trend. The model was formulated as a linear programming problem and solved using widely available optimization software. The solution indicates that tem- peratures have gone up by about 2◦F over the 55 years covered by the data. It also correctly identifies the known phase of the solar cycle; i.e., the date of the last solar minimum. It turns out that the maximum slope of the solar cycle sinusoid in the regression model is about the same size as the slope produced by the linear trend. The fact that the solar cycle was correctly extracted by the model is a strong indicator that effects of this size, in particular the slope of the linear trend, can be accurately determined from the 55 years of data analyzed. The main purpose for doing this analysis is to demonstrate that it is easy to find and analyze archived temperature data for oneself. In particular, this problem makes a good class project for upper-level undergraduate courses in optimization or in statistics. It is worth noting that a similar least-squares model failed to characterize the solar cycle correctly and hence even though it too indicates that temperatures have been rising locally, one can be less confident in this result. The paper ends with a section presenting similar results from a few thousand sites distributed world-wide, some results from a modification of the model that includes both temperature and humidity, as well as a number of suggestions for future work and/or ideas for enhancements that could be used as classroom projects.
    [Show full text]