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Ausnet Services AusNet Electricity Services Pty Ltd Electricity Distribution Price Review 2022-26 Part III Submitted: 31 January 2020 About AusNet Services AusNet Services owns and operates key regulated electricity transmission and electricity and gas distribution assets located in Victoria, Australia. These assets include: • A 6,685 kilometre electricity transmission network that services all electricity consumers across Victoria; • An electricity distribution network delivering electricity to approximately 737,000 customer connection points in an area of more than 80,000 square kilometres of eastern Victoria; and • A gas distribution network delivering gas to approximately 710,000 customer supply points in an area of more than 60,000 square kilometres in central and western Victoria. AusNet Services’ vision is to create energising futures by delivering value to our customers, communities and partners. For more information visit: www.ausnetservices.com.au Contact This document is the responsibility of the Regulated Energy Services division of AusNet Services. Please contact the indicated owner of the document below with any inquiries. Charlotte Eddy Manager Economic Regulation AusNet Services Level 31, 2 Southbank Boulevard Melbourne Victoria 3006 Tel: (03) 9695 6000 REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 2/272 AusNet Services Contents Table of Contents 6 Network characteristics............................................................................................................... 7 6.1 Key points ...................................................................................................................................... 7 6.2 Chapter structure ........................................................................................................................... 7 6.3 Key network statistics ..................................................................................................................... 8 6.4 Physical and environmental characteristics ................................................................................... 8 6.5 Solar penetration .......................................................................................................................... 14 6.6 Customer demographics and trends ............................................................................................ 15 7 Demand and energy forecasts .................................................................................................. 16 7.1 Key points .................................................................................................................................... 16 7.2 Chapter structure ......................................................................................................................... 16 7.3 Enhanced forecasting capability .................................................................................................. 16 7.4 Customer number forecasts ......................................................................................................... 17 7.5 Energy consumption forecasts ..................................................................................................... 21 7.6 Maximum demand forecasts ........................................................................................................ 25 7.7 Why our forecasts satisfy the Rules requirements ...................................................................... 33 7.8 Supporting documentation ........................................................................................................... 33 8 Building Block / Revenue Requirement ................................................................................... 34 8.1 Key points .................................................................................................................................... 34 8.2 Chapter structure ......................................................................................................................... 34 8.3 Summary of our revenue requirements ....................................................................................... 34 8.4 Building block components of the revenue requirement .............................................................. 35 8.5 Smoothed annual revenue requirement, X factor and revenue cap ............................................ 38 8.6 Average price path under the Proposed Revenue Cap ............................................................... 39 8.7 Supporting documentation ........................................................................................................... 40 9 Capital expenditure forecast ..................................................................................................... 41 9.1 Key points .................................................................................................................................... 41 9.2 Chapter structure ......................................................................................................................... 42 9.3 Summary of our capital expenditure forecasts............................................................................. 43 9.4 Customer preferences and feedback ........................................................................................... 47 9.5 Key inputs and assumptions ........................................................................................................ 54 9.6 Forecasting approach .................................................................................................................. 61 9.7 Capex negotiations with the Customer Forum ............................................................................. 70 9.8 Replacement capital expenditure ................................................................................................. 75 9.9 Safety capital expenditure ............................................................................................................ 86 9.10 Connections capital expenditure .................................................................................................. 95 9.11 Augmentation ............................................................................................................................... 98 9.12 Information and communications technology ............................................................................ 111 REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 3/272 AusNet Services Contents 9.13 Other capex ................................................................................................................................ 119 9.14 Deliverability ............................................................................................................................... 121 9.15 Why our capex forecasts satisfy the Rules requirements .......................................................... 122 9.16 Supporting documentation ......................................................................................................... 123 10 Operating expenditure forecast .............................................................................................. 124 10.1 Key points .................................................................................................................................. 124 10.2 Chapter structure ....................................................................................................................... 125 10.3 Summary of operating expenditure forecasts ........................................................................... 125 10.4 Forecasting approach ................................................................................................................ 128 10.5 Customer preferences and feedback ......................................................................................... 128 10.6 Opex negotiations with the Customer Forum............................................................................. 132 10.7 Key inputs and material assumptions ........................................................................................ 134 10.8 Base year expenditure ............................................................................................................... 134 10.9 Step changes ............................................................................................................................. 142 10.10 Bottom-up forecasts ................................................................................................................... 147 10.11 Trend growth .............................................................................................................................. 149 10.12 Compliance with section 71YA .................................................................................................. 153 10.13 Why our opex forecasts satisfy the Rules requirements ............................................................ 154 10.14 Supporting documentation ......................................................................................................... 155 11 Innovation ................................................................................................................................. 156 11.1 Key points .................................................................................................................................. 156 11.2 Chapter structure ......................................................................................................................
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