OF GEO L G A R N A Climate change on three Polynesian outliers in R P

U H

O Y

J

2

0

H the Solomon Islands: Impacts, vulnerability and 0

S I 9

N A

D adaptation

Kjeld Rasmussen, Wilhelm May, Thomas Birk, Melchior Mataki, Ole Mertz & Douglas Yee

Abstract Past and current impacts of climate change on three small islands, Kjeld Rasmussen (Corresponding author) Ontong Java, Bellona and Tikopia, in the Solomon Islands are Thomas Birk studied on the basis of a survey of production systems, household Ole Mertz questionnaires and key informant and group interviews. Perceptions Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, of the local population are compared to regional observations on Denmark climate variability and change. The adaptive measures taken in the E-mail: [email protected] past are identified. It is concluded that the capacity to cope with and adapt to climate variability and extreme weather events is well devel- Wilhelm May oped, and the social resilience of island communities appears to be Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copen- high. It is further shown that the differences between islands are large hagen, Denmark with regard to the types of climate change observed, the exposure of the islands to the changes and the perceptions of the severity. The Melchior Mataki differences are due to location, bio-physical and terrain conditions Pacific Centre for Environment & Sustainable Development, The and socio-economic factors, including the level of integration into University of the South Pacific, Fiji a greater economic and demographic context, the importance of different productive activities and the social organization. Douglas Yee The Meteorological Service Centre, Ministry of Aviation and Com- Keywords munication, Honiara, Solomon Islands Climate change, vulnerability, adaptation, Solomon Islands, Ontong Java, Bellona, Tikopia. Geografisk Tidsskrift – Danish Journal of Geography 109(1):1-13, 2009

Introduction adeptly coped with and adapted to climate variability and many other stressors during the past centuries (Mortimore With the ever increasing certainty of human-induced cli- & Adams, 2001; Nunn et al., 2007; Mertz et al., 2009a). mate change (Meehl et al., 2007), the urgency for devel- Small islands have received special attention in many oping countries to address the potential direct or indirect documents and negotiations on climate change as they impacts of these changes has become imminent. The vul- are considered particularly vulnerable and the many dis- nerability of many communities in developing countries is persed societies in the Pacific are a specific concern (Per- high and therefore their capacity to adapt to future climate netta, 1992; Shibuya, 1997; Mimura, 1999; Grasso, 2006; change impacts is often assumed to be low (Huq et al., Mimura et al., 2007). This is not because climate change 2004; Halsnæs & Verhagen, 2007; Challinor et al., 2007; has been or is expected to be more pronounced, in ab- Adger et al., 2007; Mertz et al., 2009b). However, to fully solute terms, in the Pacific than elsewhere (Meehl et al., understand the adaptive capacity of poor and vulnerable 2007). Rather, the following factors are generally pointed communities, it is necessary to look back and assess how to (Mimura et al., 2007): people and communities have managed in the past. Climate change and variability is not new, and many societies have

Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) 1 • Low islands, such as atolls, are obviously vulnerable to • Do general elements of livelihood strategies such as sea level rise. mobility and remittance constitute adaption to climate • Changes in the rainfall and frequency and severity of change? drought periods are likely to pose special problems to • To what extent does the traditional Polynesian social small islands, since their access to fresh water resources organization reduce vulnerability to climate change and are often limited by small reservoirs, while exchange promote adaptive capacity to deal with this and other with the mainland is hampered by their isolation. external perturbations? • Future changes in the strength and frequency of cy- • And, how might changes or erosion of this organization clones are believed to pose a threat to livelihoods and influence the adaptive capacity of Polynesian communi- human security. ties? • Future changes in ocean temperatures and acidity will threaten coral reefs on which islands depend, both with As can be seen, the concepts of vulnerability, adaptation regard to the biological richness of the reef and its pro- and adaptive capacity are central to the analysis, and their tective importance for coastal stability. interpretation will be discussed in the subsequent section.

While these statements are likely to be correct for certain parts of the Pacific, they do not necessarily hold true every- Conceptual framework where, and not all islands are equally affected by all of these changes, because of differences in location, topography, The overall conceptual framework for studying vulner- production systems, economic base and social organization. ability and adaptation to climate change, particularly in Assessing the adaptive capacity of island communities developing countries, is discussed in detail in Mertz et al. based on their observed and reported adaptive behavior in (2009a; 2009b). Vulnerability may be defined as including the past is not unproblematic: Future climate change, and three main components, ‘hazard’, ‘exposure’ and ‘adaptive in particular the expected sea level rise and the threats to capacity’ (McCarthy et al., 2001). Obviously, adaptive coral reefs, may present qualitatively different challenges capacity and actual adaptation (to past climate change) are than past climate change and variability, and there is no closely related, yet we will keep the two concepts apart in guarantee that successful adaptation in the past implies that the analysis below. ‘Exposure’ will be assessed on the basis the adaptive capacity will suffice in the future. of the results of a broad-based survey of the human and The aim of this paper is to understand past and current manufactured capital. In particular, we will focus on the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and change economic base of the islands, which is mainly agriculture, on the three Polynesian islands, Bellona, Ontong Java and the use of marine resources and remittances, and the supply Tikopia, in the Solomon Islands in the SW Pacific. Adap- of fresh water and other basic commodities. ‘Exposure’ tation may be expected to take place at all scales from the may then be understood as the impact of climate change on individual to the global, and while our analysis focuses on the subsistence and economic base of the island communi- the local, island scale, we will place it in a national and ties in question. ‘Adaptive capacity’ will be understood as international perspective. the ability of the island communities and individuals to Briefly summarized, the research questions addressed perceive and respond to this ‘exposure’ to climate change are the following: manifested as slow trends or changes in the statistics of • How have people on the islands responded to climate- extreme events. related events and impacts in terms of coping measures Hazards include direct changes in climatic conditions and adaptation strategies? and derived environmental change. The direct changes • Do people on the islands perceive any changes in cli- include both slow trends in average rainfall, temperature, mate and/or severity of related impacts? wind speeds and wave heights and changes in the statistics • What are the important climatic and non-climatic fac- of extreme events, such as probabilities of the occurrence tors that determine the vulnerability of island popula- of extremely high wind speeds. Derived environmental tions to climate variability and/or change? change may include changes in physical and chemical prop- • Has economic integration in a wider world increased erties of sea water, e.g. a decrease in the pH and an increase or reduced vulnerability and adaptive capacity? in the temperature of the upper water layers, posing a threat to the health and even survival of coral reefs.

2 Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) The exposure of each island and its population to a certain Study area hazard depends both on the bio-physical characteristics of the island and on the economic base of the island popula- The three islands studied, Bellona, Ontong Java and Tiko- tion. Thus, the exposure of an island such as Bellona to pia (Figure 1), were selected with a view to ‘keep constant’ sea level rise is relatively limited because of the island’s certain variables (e.g. ‘size’, measured in terms of popula- topography (high coastal cliffs) while an atoll such as On- tion numbers, and ethnicity) while letting others (e.g. geo- tong Java, which is economically dependent on marine morphology and degree of isolation) vary, thereby easing resources is very much exposed to the particular hazards the identification and testing of some of the causal links associated with ‘acidification’ of sea water that are threat- suggested in the research questions posed above. In the ening coral reefs. selection we have given priority to islands which have been The adaptive capacity of an island community will de- described in detail in earlier studies in order to facilitate pend on local understanding of exposure to climate related identification of changes. hazards, the internal as well as external (e.g. remittances) • All three are relatively small islands, with populations economic resources available to it, and the social organiza- of about 800 (Bellona), 1,100 (Tikopia) and 2,500 (On- tion, especially the degree to which redistributive mecha- tong Java). nisms, which permit compensation of those suffering the • All are predominantly Polynesian, in terms of ethnicity greatest losses, are functioning. It should be noted that and culture. The Solomon Islands are dominated by while the adaptive capacity of an island community may Melanesian people, so the three islands are not repre- be seen as a property of the community itself, in reality it sentative of the country in terms of the ethnicity of the is embedded in adaptive capacities at higher provincial, population. national and global levels. In the past, the actual adapta- • The islands represent different geomorphological/geo- tion to change, and not least the response to destruction logical types: Ontong Java is an atoll and consists of caused by cyclones, has depended on the capacities of other a large number of small islands surrounding a shallow islands, the national state and international agencies to lagoon. The total land area is about 770 ha and most provide help. The study of actual adaptation to past climate islands have flat, sandy beaches, constantly being re- change and extreme events is a main source of information shaped by erosion and deposition from both the sea on the adaptive capacities of island communities and very side and lagoon side. The islands are narrow and few important for the design of adaptation strategies. have considerable areas more than 2 meters above sea The term ‘coping’ (with climate change) is often used. level. Bellona is a raised atoll of about 1,600 ha with We do not specifically distinguish between coping and ad- cliffs up to 55 meters high and only two beaches. The aptation. However, the former is often used for short-term former lagoon area is now covered by phosphate-rich responses that do not entail an actual change of the system deposits emanating from decomposed guano. Tikopia is whereas the latter implies more permanent change. We will of volcanic origin and has an area of about 460 ha. The use adaptation as a broad term that comprises actions to landscape is dominated by the old crater, which rises reduce vulnerability (Adger et al., 2007). to about 360 meters, the crater lake and a flat foreland The main methodological problem with the use of these of sediments overlaying an old coral reef. concepts and terms may be that they are not easily opera- • The three islands differ considerably with respect to tionalized: although indices have been developed (Vincent, their degree of isolation: Bellona is relatively close to 2007), the observation and measurement of vulnerability, the capital city of the Solomon Islands, Honiara, and adaptation and adaptive capacity are inherently difficult, has frequent connections by boat and plane. Ontong and there is a risk that any observed action or change in Java has 3‑4 irregular boat connections each year and behavior is interpreted as an adaptation to climate change, while an airstrip exists, it is not used regularly. Tikopia even though numerous other external and internal factors has little exchange of goods and people with the outside cause the population to respond. world, since only 1‑2 freight and passenger boats visit each year, no airstrip exists and it is outside helicopter range from Honiara. The degree of isolation has a great impact on island economies, migration patterns and social organization, all of which differ greatly.

Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) 3 tee that the three islands are representative for Pacific – or even Polynesian – islands. Rather, the selection method is likely to highlight that great differences in climate change impacts and adaptation measures exist and is meant to allow validation of certain causal explanations.

Methods

Data for this paper was collected from December 2006‑Jan- uary 2007 when three research teams visited the Polyne- sian outliers of Bellona (6 weeks), Tikopia (6 days) and Ontong Java (3 weeks) in the Solomon Islands. The dif- ferent lengths of stay in the islands reflect logistical chal- lenges – e.g. to reach Tikopia, a ship had to be rented, the Figure 1: Map of the Southwest Pacific indicating the Solomon journey lasted 4 days from Honiara and weather delayed the Islands and the Polynesian outliers of Bellona, Ontong Java and departure. However, since each team was composed of at Tikopia (Graphics Kent Pørksen). least 5 researchers and numerous field assistants, including several originating from the islands, a significant amount of data was collected. As in most studies on climate change in the least developed countries, we were limited by the • All islands were from the outset expected to be ex- lack of historical records of climate variability, events and posed (and vulnerable) to different elements of climate impacts. Therefore, this study involved the use of a variety change. of methods and sources of information. In the following • All three have been studied comprehensively decades we will briefly present these methods and data sources ago. Ontong Java was studied in the 1970s and 1980s and describe how they were used for the different parts (Bayliss-Smith, 1974; 1977; 1988), Bellona in the of the paper. 1960s (Christiansen, 1975), and Tikopia from the 1920s (Firth, 1939; 1983) and onwards and revisited in the Household survey 1970s (Kirch & Yen, 1982). This allows us to add some A total of 184 structured household interviews were con- historical depth to the analysis. ducted (Table 1), representing about 20‑25% of households on the islands. Interviews focused on livelihoods (land use, The Solomon Islands have a tropical climate with mean economy, mobility etc.) and contained specific questions daily maximum and minimum temperatures of 30 and on the impacts of and adaptation to climate variability that 230C respectively. The rainfall varies widely in space and provided important indications of household and commu- time. The annual average rainfall ranges from 3,000 mm in nity vulnerability towards various perturbations. The latter coastal areas to 5,000 mm in the highlands. Drought is often questions were asked at the end of the questionnaire in order associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). to avoid any ‘disaster-biased’ focus towards other parts of From about December to March, westerly to north-westerly the questionnaire. In most households the interviewees monsoonal winds associated with high rainfall predomi- were of mixed gender, with both man and wife present, nate. The southeast trade winds dominate from around often together with children, parents and other relatives. May to October and mainly cause higher rainfall on the Although women were in some cases formally considered windward side of the islands. Moreover, from December the head of household, most often the man responded to to March, tropical cyclones often form near the Solomon questions, except on certain issues such as gardening, diet Islands and affect the islands. On average, the country ex- preferences etc. Although a certain gender-toned differen- periences 1‑2 tropical cyclones each year, mainly in the tiation in knowledge was to be expected, these response southern and eastern parts. Of the islands studied, Bellona patterns might have been reinforced by our use of mainly and Tikopia are frequently affected. male research assistants and interpreters. In the case of As indicated, this selection procedure does not guaran- Ontong Java, some of the questionnaires were returned

4 Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) without responses to questions on climate variability, and Meteorological Service Centre as well as neighboring coun- therefore, these households have been excluded from the tries (e.g. Australia). Third, we use information from the analysis (see Table 2, 3 and 4 in the results section). household survey and the key informant and focus group interviews, the latter mainly to (a) establish ‘time lines’ Table 1: Number of households and semi-structured interviews on for the past 40 years centered around ‘key events’, such each island. as major droughts and cyclones and (b) obtain information Bellona Ontong Tikopia on the respondents’ perception of the relative severity of Java different elements of climate change. Total approximate no. of 208 369 200 households Assessing exposure and adaptation The assessment of exposure, as defined above, involves No. of households in- 48 90 46 identification of which economic and social effects of cli- cluded in survey mate change are the most prominent. Since all three islands Focus group and key in- 8 9 7 rely to a great, yet varying, degree on crop production and formant interviews fishing for subsistence, an analysis of the impacts of climate change on these economic activities is a key element. Most emphasis has been placed on crop production here, since Focus group and key informant interviews this was reported to be the most directly affected. Informa- When the background information from the household sur- tion from the household survey, key informant and focus vey had been gathered, in-depth semi-structured interviews group interviews and field walks was used for this purpose. were conducted with local chiefs, teachers, elders and other As indicated above, the identification of actions and identified key informants in order to establish timelines of changes in behavior that represent adaptation to climate climate events and get a more detailed insight into percep- change is a major methodological challenge. We have pri- tions of climate-related changes, impacts, vulnerability and marily relied upon the views of the people themselves, as adaptation on the islands. expressed in the questionnaire. Focus group interviews were carried out with groups of elders, youngsters, women, men and mixed groups to get a broader view of the depth and differences in island- Results: Past climate change in the Solomon ers’ knowledge, observations and perceptions of climate Islands change impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This approach also allowed discussion among group members, Current assessments of past climate change which helped identify more generalized opinions by the As summarized in the Fourth Assessment Report by the various groups. IPCC, the region around the Solomon Islands has already experienced long-term changes in climate over the last Field mapping, field visits, soil sampling 30‑100 years (Trenberth et al., 2007). The annual mean To assess the extent of impacts from climate events, a surface temperature, for instance, has increased by between number of field site visits were conducted as ‘narrative 0.5 and 0.80C per century through the period 1901 to 2005, walks’ or boat trips with farmers, fishermen and other key with an increase of between 0.15 and 0.250C per decade informants. Common methods were used to examine soil since 1979. This is consistent with the entire tropical west- texture and salinity as well as to measure island topography ern Pacific region and the near-surface temperature obser- and validate the satellite-based land use classification. vations from Fiji, showing higher than normal temperatures in the years 2003‑2006, along with a significant increase in Understanding the hazards: Past and current climate the numbers of both hot days and hot nights (Mataki et al., variability, events and impacts 2007). Also, the analysis of temperature data at four syn- The understanding of climatic hazards is based on three optic stations on the Solomon Islands reveals an increase main sources of information: First, the literature on cli- in the near-surface temperature in recent years. mate change has been consulted, with a focus on IPCC’s The region around the Solomon Islands has experi- Fourth Assessment Report. Second, we have made use of enced a long-term decrease in annual mean precipitation the scarce climatic data gathered by the Solomon Islands of 20 to 40% per century through the period 1901 to 2005

Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) 5 (Trenberth et al., 2007). This appears to be a general trend cal cyclones (categories 4 and 5) in the southwest Pacific in the tropical western Pacific region, although the reduc- region between 1975 to 1989 and 1990 to 2004. tion in precipitation of between 5 and 20% per century is The Solomon Islands are affected by tropical cyclones, somewhat weaker. In relation to the so-called Madden- with a long-term average of 1.4 tropical cyclones per year Julian-Oscillation, which has a characteristic period of be- over the cyclone seasons 1969/70‑2004/05. Over the last tween 30 and 60 days, the occurrence of rainfall can vary approxi­mately 50 years, Bellona has experienced four substantially on sub-seasonal time scales. This oscillation major tropical cyclones, Gheela (1952), Kerry (1978), can lead to prolonged episodes of intense precipitation in Namu (1986) and Nina (1993). Tikopia was hit by three all seasons and also causes many extreme precipitation major tropical cyclones, one in 1952, Hina (1991) and Zoë events. (2002). Ontong Java, on the other hand, very rarely experi- The precipitation in the tropical western Pacific region ences tropical cyclones because of its location close to the is strongly correlated with the ENSO phenomenon, El Niño equator, but was hit by tropical cyclone Annie in 1967. events typically being associated with less precipitation and La Niña events with more precipitation (Mataki et al., Local perception of past climate change 2007). Since 1977, a climate shift associated with marked The time lines of extreme weather events for the three changes in the El Niño evolution was observed, with a shift islands developed with the help of elderly people show to generally above-normal sea surface temperatures in the that the cyclones mentioned above are clearly recalled by eastern and central tropical Pacific and a tendency towards islanders. One example of such a time line for Bellona more prolonged and stronger El Niño events (Trenberth is given in Reenberg et al. (2008). Moreover, interview et al., 2007). This shift may explain part of the long-term data also revealed irregularly occurring dry periods, peri- decrease in precipitation in the tropical western Pacific ods with continuous and heavy rain, windy periods, and region. While ENSO events typically occur every 2 to 5 changes in the weather variability, all of which may indi- years, the so-called Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects the cate climate change. In general, the events marked in the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean at much longer time time lines reflect the meteorological data available and scales. These variations actually hamper the detection of although the time lines add much detail which cannot be long-term trends in the state, i.e. temperature and salinity, validated independently, the internal consistency of the of this part of the Pacific (Bindoff et al., 2007). locally collected evidence suggests that the information Through the period 1993 to 2001, a positive trend of is robust. the sealevel height of between 15 and 25 mm per year From the outset it was expected that three elements and/ was found in the area of the Solomon Islands, both on the or effects of climate change would be the most important: basis of Topex/Poseidon data and tide-data from Honiara (1) cyclones and storms, (2) erosion, flooding and sea level (Church et al., 2006). However, this is not a long-term rise, and (3) droughts. This classification was used in the trend, since a reconstruction of the sea-level height over the household questionnaire, but the other interviews showed 52 year period between 1950 and 2001 shows a markedly that it was not optimal; for example, flooding may actu- weaker trend of between 0.5 and 1 mm per year. But at the ally be associated with cyclones or storms, and increased same time the significant wave height in the area around rainfall may in some cases be as important as drought. the Solomon Islands has decreased by about 0.4 cm per Nevertheless, the questionnaire data does give indications decade (Trenberth et al., 2007). of the relative importance of the three classes of changes, The tropical cyclone season in the South Pacific Austra- and key informant and group interviews qualify the results lia region typically extends from November through April, of the ‘severity rating’ from the questionnaire analysis. In with its peak activity from December through March. The the following we report the findings on the relative impor- tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region appears tance of these three climate change elements. to have declined over the past decade, although this may be partly due to improved analysis and the elimination Cyclones and storms of weak cyclones that were previously included in analy- Bellona has been exposed to a number of cyclones and ses. The tropical cyclone activity in the Australian and the storms over the last decades and they are considered by southwest Pacific region is typically increased during La most Bellonese to be a major threat (Table 2). Cyclones Niña years and decreased during El Niño years. Webster cause economic losses, including destruction of houses and et al. (2005) found more than a doubling of severe tropi- loss of crops. The loss of crops depends on the intensity

6 Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) of the cyclone and mainly affects the above-ground crops. by Bayliss-Smith (1988). The cyclone was the first in more Given the relatively great importance of imported foods than 50 years, and a new word was adopted in the local and the considerable exchange of goods with the capital, language to describe the high velocity wind phenomena: Honiara, the crop losses caused by cyclones do not seri- sakaloni ~ cyclone (Bayliss-Smith, 1988). No one was ously threaten food security. Due to the high coasts of killed during the cyclone or from related impacts, but a Bellona, flooding is not a problem. Like the Tikopians, large part of the coconut production was destroyed and see below, the Bellonese have well-developed means of crops were flooded by seawater. This had a long-term surviving cyclones: traditional shelters can be built in a negative impact on agricultural yields, especially in the few hours, and casualties associated with cyclones have humid taro swamps. Despite government assistance, crop been relatively few. Many of the people interviewed see damage caused a shortage of food for a long period after cyclones as the most important climate-related threat to the cyclone. their livelihood, yet few people are reported to have left People on Ontong Java recurrently experience impacts Bellona permanently due to cyclones. from storms, some following in the trail of cyclones else- where in the region. A storm in early 2006 coinciding with Table 2: Perceived impacts from cyclones. Results of household high tides, caused extensive flooding on the two perma- survey. nently inhabited islands, Luaniua and Pelau. This incident Islands Impact from cyclones led the government of the Solomon Islands to initiate a number of shipments with disaster relief and at the time Yes, Yes, No of the fieldwork (Nov-Dec 2006), people were still living major minor mainly off the government relief supply or supplies from relatives in Honiara. Bellona Total (47)* 43 0 4 Tikopia has been hit by three cyclones over the last 35 % 91.5 0.0 8.5 years. The worst was the category 5 cyclone, Zoë, in De- Ontong Total (74) 34 5 35 cember 2002. Cyclone Zoë was among the most intense Java ever recorded by Fiji Meteorological Service (Anderson- % 45.9 6.8 47.3 Berry et al., 2003). It is clear from the household survey and strongly supported by interviews that cyclones are Tikopia Total (46) 46 0 0 considered to be the dominant problem for most Tiko- % 100.0 0.0 0.0 pians. Cyclone Zoë caused extensive damage to vegeta- tion (most trees were knocked over) and food production, buildings and graveyards, and thereby strongly affected * Totals exclude households that did not respond to the question. the livelihoods of people on the island. It was especially devastating on the SE-facing Ravenga area, where every- Ontong Java may be considered highly vulnerable to cy- thing was swept away, and the waves broke down the land clones due to the high exposure and sensitivity to impacts barrier between the sea and the crater lake, see Figure 2. from flooding, dependence on few crops (mainly coconuts The consequence was that the crater lake, which used to and taro) and wind-sensitive house constructions. However, be a freshwater lake, became brackish. This, however, did Ontong Java is situated close to the equator and cyclones not appear to cause major long-term effects on food supply very rarely hit this part of the Solomon Islands (Bayliss- from the lake. The cyclone stayed over Tikopia for three Smith, 1988). The respondents who perceived cyclones to days, and the population spent that time in traditional emer- be a major problem were primarily those who had experi- gency shelters and in caves. Surprisingly, no lives were lost enced the strong impacts of cyclone Annie in 1967. Most (Yates & Anderson-Berry, 2004). Subsequently, the island of the younger respondents did not perceive cyclones to received considerable outside assistance, both as food aid be a problem or they did not respond to the question – and and assistance for reconstructing houses and other infra- when they did, they would either refer to second-hand in- structure, including the water supply. Interviews indicated formation of elders who had experienced cyclone Annie that the crop losses associated with Zoë were extensive. or would misinterpret strong storms as cyclones (Table 2). Marine resources were not greatly affected, but some ca- The impact of cyclone Annie is comprehensively described noes and fishing equipment were lost. Outside assistance

Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) 7 ascribed to the elevation of island and settlements. Coastal erosion of the beaches on the northwestern part of the island was mentioned, however.

Table 3: Perceived impacts of flooding. Results of household survey.

Islands Impact from flooding Yes, Yes, No major minor

Bellona Total (47)* 2 1 44

% 4.3 2.1 93.6

Ontong Total (63) 24 29 10 Java % 38.1 46.0 15.9

Tikopia Total (46) 14 4 28

% 30.4 8.7 60.9

* Totals exclude households that did not respond to the question.

Ontong Java is, with its low altitude, the most vulnerable to sea-level rise and flooding and more than 80% of re- spondents mention them (Table 3). Again, flooding is also caused by stormy events, and therefore is an implicit part Figure 2: Ravenga, the area of Tikopia hardest hit by cyclone Zoê. the responses reported in Table 2. On the two permanently The satellite image shows the new channel from the sea to the crater inhabited islands, Luaniua and Pelau, every year a few lake and the sparse vegetation on the formerly forested strip of land. The photo shows the crater lake and the coral sands that were depos- houses are either washed away due to flooding or relocated ited in the lake. The dam blocking the channel can be faintly seen. landwards to avoid damage from exposure to high tides. Most recently in early 2006, stormy weather coinciding with high tides caused massive flooding and several houses were relocated to slightly higher lands. made it possible to fill the gap in the food supply until new Erosion has been an observable impact of changing tides crops, planted after the cyclone, could be harvested. and strong currents and has had a significant impact on The history of cyclones is well-known to all Tikopi- islanders. According to some of the respondents, there has ans. It is generally believed that cyclones are becoming been a shift of regimes, from “the building of land” before more frequent and stronger, and there is strong agreement the cyclone in 1967, towards a negative sediment budget that cyclones pose the greatest threat to local livelihoods or net erosion after the cyclone event. Several elderly re- (Table 2). There is evidence of whole families leaving spondents pointed out that the beach is moving closer to Tikopia after having lost their belongings in cyclones. In the houses. However, some islanders recognize that erosion most cases, however, members of the family stayed back is a natural attribute of the low-lying atoll islands and that to look after houses and gardens/fields to ensure that the it is also exacerbated by non-climate stresses such as the family’s property was not lost. cutting of palm trees and vegetation acting as protection against erosion. Erosion, flooding and sea level rise In Tikopia, one third of the respondents perceived flood- On Bellona, respondents did not perceive flooding, erosion ing to be a major problem (Table 3). Flooding in Tikopia and sea level rise as a problem (Table 3). This was mainly has, however, a different meaning than in Ontong Java

8 Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) and comprises mainly two phenomena: (1) flooding of the the lack of rain has different outcomes each year. Taro, SE-facing Ravenga zone (Figure 2), caused by the swells which is the main food source on the islands, grows in created by cyclone Zoë, and (2) persistent flooding of low- inland (freshwater) swamps that have been excavated to lying swampy areas in the western part, caused by drain- groundwater level. Although the taro can survive weeks age problems arising in connection with Zoë. The former without rain, persistent drought periods were reported to phenomenon was an acute problem associated with Zoë, have had great negative influence on food production in which led to many houses in this densely populated part of general. Also, droughts cause the groundwater level to sink Tikopia being washed away. The latter phenomenon has and increase the risk of salt water intrusion, which would resulted in the loss of swamp taro gardens, which are of be devastating for the taro. Previously, when freshwater re- minor importance to the island as a whole. Sea level rise is sources in the limited groundwater lens beneath the largest not considered a major problem by most people in Tikopia, islands dried out, people relied entirely on coconut milk. In even though some claim to observe it, and some coastal terms of drinking water, rainwater tanks have become more erosion is visible. The problem of flooding in Tikopia is common since the 1980s and now community tanks have to for the most part directly associated with the problem of a large degree decreased the vulnerability towards severe cyclones. droughts. However, due to the shared use of stagnating and heated water from unsealed rainwater tanks, health-related Impact of droughts risks may increase, and water borne diseases like diarrhea In Bellona drought is seen as a major problem by most and cholera are already prevalent on the islands. people (Table 4). There are two main reasons for this: First, On Tikopia, only one household did not consider the availability of fresh water for domestic purposes is droughts to be a problem. Rainfall is relatively frequent totally dependent on rainwater collected in tanks. During all year round, fresh water springs exist, and most house- prolonged droughts the fresh water is simply depleted, and holds have a piped water supply derived from these springs. brackish water from pools at the coast is used instead. This However, crops may still be damaged, and the reservoirs requires either difficult transport or relocation of house- feeding the piped water supply may run dry during drought holds, and it also involves increased risks of diseases. periods. Second, drought affects crop production and may cause With reference to droughts and cyclones, a special piece substantial yield decreases or total loss of certain crops. of ‘folk knowledge’ is worth noting: In Bellona and Tiko- pia (and in one case in Ontong Java as well) respondents Table 4: Perceived impacts of droughts. Results of household survey. link cyclones and droughts. Often cyclones are claimed to Islands Impact from droughts mark the end of a long drought period, yet in some cases a drought is said to follow a cyclone. No scientific informa- Yes, Yes, No tion on this link has been identified, yet the idea of a close major minor link is extremely widespread and a standard part of ‘local ecological knowledge’. Bellona Total (47)* 42 3 2 Adaptation to past and current climate change % 89.4 6.4 4.3 Identification of specific ‘adaptation strategies’ may be Ontong Total (73) 46 26 1 difficult in cases such as these, where the production sys- Java tems are obviously strongly dependent on climate and % 63.0 35.6 1.4 where extreme weather events play such a great role in Tikopia Total (46) 28 17 1 daily life. Changes in climate and weather variability have always been a basic condition of life on these islands. The % 60.9 37.0 2.2 observed climatic trends have in most cases been gradual and are not qualitatively different from what may always * Totals exclude households that did not respond to the question. have taken place. There are, however, a few categories of climate-/weather-related adaptive activities that we can Likewise in Ontong Java, droughts have a great impact on single out: crop production and fresh water resources for household use. Periods of 1‑4 weeks of drought occur yearly, but

Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) 9 1. Coastal protection: Kirch & Yen (1982) reported has been provided after cyclones by local government, that sea walls were being built on Tikopia to project the national government and foreign donors. against sea level rise and erosion. While few such ac- 4. Water supply: Rainwater tanks were introduced in the tivities were observed on Tikopia at this time, some are 1980s and they have become an important means to

found in Ontong Java, including efforts to build simple endure long periods of drought. On Ontong Java, dur- wooden fences to diminish erosion in front of houses ing years of relative prosperity and with funding from and to pile stones on the island tip to protect a housing stable ‘income taxes’ as well as donations from the EU

area. The extent of these efforts is small, however, and and others, each of the two communities have invested government support has been called for by local deci- in two large water tanks that are managed under certain sion makers a number of times, as yet with no outcome rules, but shared among households. Some households except for a brief visit by a government consultant. also have access to private tanks, either owned by one 2. Construction methods: Emergency shelters are well- family or a number of households (wards). Previously, established on Tikopia as a means of avoiding loss of water from dugout wells using limited groundwater lives during cyclones and storms. The shelters are built lenses were the only source, and during persistent rapidly in parts of the island without too many large droughts coconuts were the only alternative. trees (in order to avoid the danger of falling trees), but 5. Relocation: In Polynesian societies, migration is a with an abundance of branches of the right type and traditional means of adapting to internal and external size. Moreover, the chiefs have decided to revert to stress, e.g. in the form of extreme weather events and/ the traditional building style with low, aerodynamic or climate change. In both Bellona, Ontong Java and houses and sago palm leaves as roofing material, in Tikopia there is a long tradition of exchange of popula- order to avoid hazards from flying debris such as metal tion with – in particular, export of people to – the capital roofs. This is one of the problems in Bellona, where Honiara, other islands in the Solomon Islands, and the ‘modern houses’ on stilts and with metal roofs are the wider world. Hardships on the islands, associated with most common and are easily destroyed in cyclones. The cyclones or drought, have therefore often resulted in succession of three major tropical cyclones on Bellona increased rates of migration, either temporary or perma- in the period 1978‑1993 raised peoples’ awareness of nent, according to interviews. However, our data from cyclones, and storm shelters in the young forests un- the survey did not allow us to establish a direct causal derneath the coastal cliffs are maintained in order to be link between climate events and migration, which might prepared for the next tropical cyclone. On Ontong Java, be explained by the fact that migration is often a result some houses are raised above ground (e.g. a school of a complex context of multiple causes and decisions. building) or have slightly elevated concrete floors (e.g. On Tikopia, information from one interview suggested churches, shops) to keep houses dry during long periods that entire families left after Zoë, leaving only few of heavy rain. members behind to maintain rights to land. 3. Food supply: The traditional approach to assuring a 6. Remittances: Migration and/or relocation of Polynesian steady food supply after a cyclone that has destroyed community members have important additional pur- crops includes the following elements: (a) Fast ma- poses aside from ‘exporting’ people. Remittances from turing, short-cycle crops (such as sweet potatoes) are family or clan members are rather crucial in times of planted immediately after cyclones; (b) in Tikopia, food hardships, and therefore, migrated islanders are consid- is preserved, using traditional fermentation techniques; ered an important part of extended island livelihoods in- (c) exchange with neighboring islands and assistance volving a two-way exchange of food, money and other from family/clan members elsewhere; (d) more em- goods. In Ontong Java, remittances remain perhaps the phasis has been placed on fishing to compensate for most important coping strategy in response to climate- loss of other food sources. The diversity of agricultural related impacts on food availability. food sources as well as products extracted from a vari- ety of marine ecological niches (the reef, the deep sea, beaches, lagoons and lakes), may in itself be considered an adaptation strategy, since in most cases not all of these food sources will be affected by any one extreme weather event. In modern times, an external food supply

10 Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) Discussion and conclusion the increased capacity to store fresh water in Ontong Java, funded by income from the bêche-de-mer fisheries and cer- Past adaptation tainly reducing vulnerability to drought in the longer term. As mentioned above, it is methodologically complex to The international responses to extreme events, such as distinguish between adaptive actions/strategies directly the cyclone Zoë in Tikopia, illustrates, however, that in related to climate change, and general livelihood strategies, such cases the integration of the islands in a larger regional which of course take into account climatic variability and context, involving Australia and New Zealand, does reduce the risks of extreme weather events. This is particularly dif- vulnerability: The hardships of recovery after Zoë have ficult in the present case since livelihoods have always been certainly been reduced by external assistance. extremely climate and weather dependent. Many practices mentioned above may be argued to constitute elements of Does social organization impact on adaptive capacity? adaptation strategies addressing climate and weather, and The traditional Polynesian social organization, built on not the least the risk of exposure to extreme events, but the strong authority of the king/chief, is found in all three none of them can be proved to be particularly related to islands studied, yet its importance differs strongly between climate change. islands. The parallel modern, democratic organization may The high mobility of the populations of the three islands challenge the traditional institutions, in particular on Bel- may be interpreted as an adaptive strategy, and anecdotal lona and Ontong Java, and increasing individualism, un- evidence of families leaving Tikopia after Zoë may sup- derpinned by economic factors making individuals and port such claims, yet there are many other factors at play: households increasingly independent of the community, The population surplus of the islands is constantly being may also pose a threat to traditional, local institutions. The ‘exported’ to the larger islands, following the breakdown latter may be particularly evident in Ontong Java, because of the traditional population control mechanisms described of the high incomes periodically earned through the bêche- by Firth (1983) for Tikopia. Children leave the islands to de-mer fishery. Of the three islands, Tikopia, with its four go to school, adults leave to look for jobs and old people chiefs, is characterized by a more or less intact traditional leave to get health care. Whether climate change can be social organization, also including the church. However, identified to be an independent factor is doubtful. it is very clear on all islands that it is a centerpiece of the Polynesian value system that people are responsible for The impacts of increasing or decreasing economic helping their family, clan members, neighbors and every- integration into a wider world one on their island to some extent in times of crisis and While it is normally assumed that island communities are scarcity. becoming increasing economically (as well as culturally) The importance of social organization in the context of integrated into a wider world, this cannot be said to be extreme weather events is clear: The traditional system of evident in the present context. Since colonial times, Tikopia food redistribution, supported by traditional institutions, is has probably experienced increased economic isolation, of critical importance when acute shortages occur, such as because ship connections have become less frequent and in the case of Tikopia after Zoë. The chiefs and the church more irregular (even though recent information suggests organize and guarantee the distribution of food and assis- that this may change). The economic isolation of Ontong tance, both internally and when supplies arrive from the Java has varied greatly, depending on whether or not export outside. To the extent that climate change is mainly rep- of bêche-de-mer has been taking place. With the gradual resented by increasing frequency and severity of extreme decrease in copra trade, and the periodic ban on bêche- events, it may therefore be claimed that traditional social de-mer fisheries, Ontong Java has partly withdrawn from organization promotes adaptive capacity. There are no truly economic exchange for extended periods. Only Bellona has comparable events in recent times on the other islands that experienced a consistent increase in economic exchange, would allow a comparative study to the cyclone Zoë, so it due to the easy transport between the island and Honiara is difficult to prove the superiority of the traditional insti- (Reenberg et al., 2008). If exchange of goods and money tutions in Tikopia, relative to the less traditional ones in between the islands and the mainland and the larger world Bellona and Ontong Java. It should be mentioned here, that is seen as a means of reducing the vulnerability towards while there is only one religious orientation (the Anglican) climatic change and extreme events, this may well have in Tikopia, several are found in Bellona, which may have been attained mainly by Bellona. An exception may be impacts on the role of the church is crisis situations.

Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) 11 Acknowledgements and Survival. Rural ecology in the Pacific. London, Academic Press. This research was a component of the CLIP project, which Bayliss-Smith, T. (1988): The role of hurricanes in the de- was part of the Galathea 3 Expedition under the auspices velopment of reef islands, Ontong Java Atoll, Solomon of the Danish Expedition Foundation. This is Galathea 3 Islands. The Geographical Journal 154: 377‑391. contribution no. P31. CLIP is an interdisciplinary research Bindoff, N.L., Willebrand, J., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J., project carried out in collaboration between the University Gulev, S., Hanawa, K., Nojiri, Y., Shum, C.K. & Un- of Copenhagen, the Danish Meteorological Institute, the nikrishnan, A. (2007): Observations: Oceanic Climate University of the South Pacific and the Solomon Islands Change and Sea Level. Pp. 386‑432 in: Solomon, S., Meteorological Service Centre. The project was endorsed Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, by the Global Land Project. We are grateful for the support K.B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (eds.): Climate Change of the Danish Expedition Foundation, both for accepting 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of the project and for assuring the funding provided by Bi- Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of kubenfonden. We are also very thankful for the additional the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cam- funding provided by: Knud Højgaards Fond, COWIfon- bridge, Cambridge University Press. den, Brødrene Hartmann’s Fond and the Danish Social Challinor, A., Wheeler, T., Garforth, C., Craufurd, P. & Kas- Science Research Council, the Department of Geography sam, A. (2007): Assessing the vulnerability of food crop and Geology of the University of Copenhagen, the Danish systems in Africa to climate change. Climatic Change Meteorological Institute and the University of the South 83: 381‑399. Pacific. The research team is highly appreciative of the Christiansen, S. (1975): Subsistence on Bellona Island strong support from the Solomon Islands Government and (Mungiki). A Study of the Cultural Ecology of a Poly- the immense hospitality and assistance from the people and nesian Outlier in the British Solomon Islands Protector- authorities of Bellona, Ontong Java and Tikopia. Special ate. Folia Geographica Danica TOM XIII. Copenhagen, thanks also go to all our field assistants. C.A. Reitzels Forlag. Church, J.A., White, N.J. & Hunter, J.R. (2006): Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands. Global References and Planetary Change 53: 155‑168. Firth, R. (1939): Primitive Polynesian Economy. London, Adger, N., Agrawala, S., Mirza, M.M.Q., Conde, C., Routledge & Kegan Paul. O’Brien, K., Pulhin, J., Pulwarty, R., Smit, B. & Taka- Firth, R. (1983): We, the Tikopia: A Sociological Study hashi, T. (2007): Assessment of adaptation practices, of Kinship in Primitive Polynesia. Palo Alto, Stanford options, constraints and capacity. Pp. 717‑743 in: Parry, University Press. M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. Grasso, M. (2006): An Ethics-based Climate Agreement for & Hanson, C.E. (eds.): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, the South Pacific Region. International Environmental Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 6: 249‑270. Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter- Halsnæs, K. & Verhagen, J. (2007): Development based governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, climate change adaptation and mitigation – conceptual Cambridge University Press. issues and lessons learned in studies in developing coun- Anderson-Berry, L., Iroi, C. & Rangi, A. (2003): The Envi- tries. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ronmental and Societal Impacts of Cyclone Zoe and the Change 12: 665‑684. Effectiveness of the Tropical Cyclone Warning Systems Huq, S., Reid, H., Konate, M., Rahman, A., Sokona, Y. & in Tikopia and Anuta. Available from: http://www.tesag. Crick, F. (2004): Mainstreaming adaptation to climate jcu.edu.au/CDS/Pages/reports/Zoe2002.pdf change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Climate Bayliss-Smith, T. (1974): Constraints in population growth: Policy 4: 25‑43. the case of the Polynesian outlier atolls in the precontact Kirch, P.V. & Yen, D.E. (1982): Tikopia. The Prehistory period. Human Ecology 2: 259‑295. and Ecology of a Polynesian Outlier. Honolulu, Bishop Bayliss-Smith, T. (1977): Energy Use and Economic De- Museum Press. velopment in Pacific Communities. Pp. 317‑359 in: Bayliss-Smith, T. & Feachem, R.G. (eds.): Subsistence

12 Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) Mataki, M., Koshy, K. & Lal, M. (2007): Baseline Clima- Reenberg, A., Birch-Thomsen, T., Mertz, O., Fog, B. & tology of Viti Levu, Fiji and Current Climatic Trends. Christiansen, S. (2008): Adaptation of Human Coping Pacific Science 60: 49‑68. Strategies in a Small Island Society in the SW Pacific-50 McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J. Years of Change in the Coupled Human-Environment & White, K.S. (2001): Climate Change 2001: Impacts, System on Bellona, Solomon Islands. Human Ecology Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge, Cambridge 36: 807‑819. University Press. Shibuya, E. (1997): “Roaring mice against the tide” the Meehl, G.A., Stocker, T.F., Collins, W.D., Friedlingstein, South Pacific Islands and agenda-building on global P., Gaye, A.T., Gregory, J.W., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., warming. Pacific Affairs 69: 541‑555. Murphy, J.M., Noda, A., Raper, S.C.B., Watterson, Trenberth, K.E., Jones, P.D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., East- I.G., Weaver, A.J. & Zhao, Z.-C. (2007): Global Cli- erling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., mate Projections. Pp. 747‑845 in: Solomon, S., Qin, Renwick, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Soden, B. & Zhai, P. D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., (2007): Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (eds.): Climate Change 2007: Change. Pp. 235‑336 in: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. & Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter- Miller, H.L. (eds.): Climate Change 2007: The Physi- governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, cal Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to Cambridge University Press. the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmen- Mertz, O., Halsnæs, K., Olesen, J.E. & Rasmussen, K. tal Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge (2009a): Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing University Press. Countries. Environmental Management 43: 743‑752. Vincent, K. (2007): Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and Mertz, O., Mbow, C., Reenberg, A. & Diouf, A. (2009b): the importance of scale. Global Environmental Change Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and agricultural 17: 12‑24. adaptation strategies in rural Sahel. Environmental Man- Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A. & Chang, H.R. agement 43: 804‑816. (2005): Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Dura- Mimura, N. (1999): Vulnerability of island countries in tion, and Intensity in a Warming Environment. Science the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change. 309: 1844‑1846. Climate Research 12: 137‑143. Yates, L. & Anderson-Berry, L. (2004): The societal and Mimura, N., Nurse, L., McLean, R.F., Agard, J., Briguglio, environmental impacts of Cyclone Zoë and the effec- L., Lefale, P., Payet, R. & Sem, G. (2007): Small islands. tiveness of the Tropical Cyclone Warning Systems in Pp. 687‑716 in: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, Tikopia and Anuta Solomon Islands December 26‑29, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. & Hanson, C.E. (eds.): Climate 2002. The Australian Journal of Emergency Manage- Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. ment 19: 16‑20. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assess- ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. Mortimore, M.J. & Adams, W.M. (2001): Farmer adap- tation, change and ‘crisis’ in the Sahel. Global Envi- ronmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 11: 49‑57. Nunn, P., Hunter-Anderson, R., Carson, M., Thomas, F., Ulm, S. & Rowland, M. (2007): Times of Plenty, Times of Less: Last-Millennium Societal Disruption in the Pacific Basin. Human Ecology 35: 385‑401. Pernetta, J.C. (1992): Impacts of Climate Change and Sea- Level Rise on Small Island States – National and In- ternational Responses. Global Environmental Change- Human and Policy Dimensions 2: 19‑31.

Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 109(1) 13