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Vietnam Engine & Agricultural Machinery Corp. [BUY, +32.2%] COMPANY REPORT November 25th, 2019 Vietnam Engine & Agricultural Machinery Corp. [BUY, +32.2%] (VEA: UPCoM) STOCK INFORMATION FINANCIAL SUMMARY 2016 2017 2018 2019F Current Price (VND) 49,000 Net revenue (VND Bil.) 6,306.9 6,563.2 7,070.1 5,275.0 Target Price (VND) 64,000 Revenue growth (% YoY) 7.0 4.1 7.7 (25.4) Up/Downsize Potential (%) 32.2 Net profit (VND Bil.) 4,504.5 5,046.1 7,010.4 7,413.9 52W High (VND) 64,450 Net profit growth (% YoY) 3.0 12.0 38.9 5.8 52W Low (VND) 34,582 Net profit margin (%) 71.4 76.9 99.2 140.5 Out/(Underperform) 3M (%) (16.2) Owner's equity (VND Bil.) 13,310.3 18,575.4 24,849.6 25,574.1 Out/(Underperform) 6M (%) 3.0 Total assets (VND Bil.) 20,376.0 23,360.9 26,406.0 27,175.9 Out/(Underperform) 12M (%) 42.8 ROA (%) 24.0 23.3 28.3 27.8 Market Cap (VND Billion) 64,313.9 ROE (%) 31.5 31.9 32.5 29.5 Average 3M volume (shares) 281,917 EPS (VND) 3,390 3,797 5,276 5,579 Outstanding Shares (million) 1,328.8 BVPS (VND) 9,869 13,836 18,701 19,246.0 Foreign Ownership (%) 0.04 Cash dividends (VND) - - 370 5,000 FOL (%) 49.0 P/E (x) 14.5 12.9 9.2 11.5 12M Trailing P/E (x) 9.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 1782.0 1357.2 274.8 N/A 12M Forward P/E (x) 11.5 P/B (x) 5.0 3.5 2.6 3.3 Source: FiinPro, EVS Estimated Stock performance Vs. VN-Index INVESTMENT THESIS 100% VEA VN-Index • Vietnam's automobile market has great potential. Car ownership rate is low compared to other countries in the region, about 23 cars per 1,000 people, 80% economic growth is stable and disposable income is increasingly improved. 60% According to the Institute of Industrial Policy (Ministry of Industry and Trade), car sales are forecast to grow 22.6%/year to 2025 and 18.5%/year 40% to 2035. 20% • Honda continues to expand its market share and sales volume of motorcycles in the context of a slowdown in Vietnam's motorcycle market. 0% With a market share of 75.9%, Honda has almost absolute dominance in the -20% Vietnamese motorcycle market. • State divestment plan from 88% to 36.0%. Jul-19 Jan-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Apr-19 Feb-19 Sep-19 Dec-18 Aug-19 Nov-18 Nov-19 Mar-19 May-19 • Attractive valuation: VEA is trading at 2019F forward P/E of 11.5, attractive Source: Fiinpro compared to the median P/E of international carmakers of 12.5x. INVESTMENT CATALYSTS • VEA's positive financial situation: abundant cash position, low leverage and tend to decline. The proportion of short-term cash and investments (savings deposits) accounts for 75% of the total assets structure. • Attractive dividend policy when VEAM is expected to have no significant caital expenditure on production and associates in the segment of Cars & Motorcycles also do not plan to increase capacity in the near future. VALUATION AND RISK We recommend BUY with a • We use the discounted cash flow method to value VEA stock. target price of VND 64,000/share • Target price: VEA stock is valued at VND 64,000/share. • We recommend BUY for VEA stock. • The main risks of VEAM is the State policies affecting the consumption of Automobiles & Motorbikes, ineffective commercial vehicles and agricultural machinery businesses. Van Duy Ngoc Tan – Research Analyst [email protected] 1 www.eves.com.vn COMPANY REPORT November 25th, 2019 1. COMPANY OVERVIEW Vietnam Engine and Agricultural Machinery Corporation (VEAM) was established in 1990 with 100% state-owned capital under the Ministry of Industry and Trade with 12 mechanical factories (7 factories in the North and 5 factories in the South). By 2010, VEAM was transformed into a limited liability company and operated under Parent Company – Subsidiary structure and by 2017, it was converted into a joint stock company. In 2018, VEAM was listed on UPCoM. Main business lines of VEAM: Producing agricultural machinery & trading to domestic market and expand exports to Asian countries. VEAM currently has 5 companies producing engines (gasoline, diesel), grinding machines, pesticide sprayers. The main market is the South and some Central provinces. Manufacturing and assembling automobiles & motorbikes, including vehicle with tonnage from 1 to 33 tons, dump trucks of 6.5 tons and tractors of 36 tons. Supporting industrial products, mechanical products such as discs, chains, motorcycle components, bearings, gears, gear boxes… However, most of these businesses are unprofitable, even at a very heavy loss. In 2015, the loss was VND 253 billion and gradually decreased to VND -50 billion in 2017. From 2018, VEAM business has improved, so the profit was VND 274 billion. Chart 1: Business results Figure 1: Some products of VEAM VND Bil. Core business activities Associates 8,000 6,852 7,000 6,000 5,170 5,000 4,590 4,576 4,000 3,492 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -1,000 aa Source: VEAM’s FS Source: VEAM Despite being profitable in 2018, the revenue still did not meet the target set by VEAM leaders because VEAM's factories assembling trucks with old Euro 2 emission standards. Meanwhile products with new Euro 4 standards have not been developed in the first year of mass production. Meanwhile, financial revenue exceeded the plan thanks to good performance of VEAM's companies, optimized short-term financial investment and strict cost management. Short and long-term investments As of 3Q19, short-term investments focused mainly on cash & equivalents of VND account for a large proportion in 681 billion, term deposits were VND 14,253 billion while long-term investments total assets structure were mostly investments in associates VND 4,862 billion. Major investments include three enterprises operating in the field of motor vehicle manufacturing, including Honda Vietnam - VND 3.513 billion, Toyota Vietnam - VND 689 billion and Ford Vietnam - VND 550 billion. 2 www.eves.com.vn COMPANY REPORT November 25th, 2019 2. BUSINESS ACTIVITIES ANALYSIS Main business activities: VEAM main business activities including: engines & agricultural machinery; Auto and Moto; supporting industries. In addition, VEAM also engages in other business lines such as freight transportation, iron ore mining and processing, trading in materials, equipment and mechanical spare parts. Manufacture of engines and VEAM is a large manufacturing enterprise, a leader in agricultural machines agricultural machines manufacturing in Vietnam, with a certain reputation in the domestic and regional markets. Currently, VEAM has 5 companies specializing in manufacturing engines, agricultural machines that produce the main products such as engines (gasoline engines, Diezel engines), 2-wheel tractors with 1-cylinder engine from 8HP up to 35HP, mills, rubber rollers, pesticide sprayers, harvesters, and gearboxes used in aquaculture. In general, the products produced by VEAM have good quality, relatively reasonable prices and are competitive in the domestic market. The average annual export value of all types of engines and agricultural machines is about US $ 30 million per year. Automobiles & Motorcycles Along with cooperation and joint venture with large reputable partners in assembling automobiles and motorcycles assembling such as Honda, Toyota, Ford, VEAM has invested a factory to assemble trucks with tonnage from below 1 ton to 33 tons and other special-use vehicles. With quite modern equipment and production lines (automatic welding line, painting, high-capacity stamping) VEAM Automotive factory has gradually developed in both quantity and quality, improved models, met needs and tastes of customers. 3 www.eves.com.vn COMPANY REPORT November 25th, 2019 Production of supporting industry Production capacity of supporting products such as: sidebars, crankshaft, bearings, products motorcycle components ... of VEAM has been increasingly improved. Currently, there are 4 companies belonging to VEAM specializing in manufacturing mechanical products for large partners: Honda, Yamaha, Piaggio... From 2014 to now, VEAM started to export some spare parts and products (Japan). Oversea revenues reach about USD 11 million/year. However, due to preferential policies for supporting industries, there are still many inadequacies, technology and equipment for manufacturing mechanical products of VEAM enterprises have not kept up with the level of advanced countries in the world; On the other hand, under heavy competitive pressure from low quality and cheap imported products, domestic mechanical manufacturing enterprises face many difficulties. Relatively stable revenue growth VEAM's net revenue is relatively stable over the years. 2018 net revenue reached more than VND 7,070 billion, an increase of 7.7% compared to 2017 and mainly came from the production of movers and agricultural machinery. However, in 9M19, net revenue reached VND 3,353 billion (-28.4% YoY) due to difficulties in vehicle consumption at the VEAM (VM) automobile factory, slow sales of inventories leading to production value decreased by -24.0% YoY and only completed 25% of the year plan. The policy of VEAM is that production must go hand in hand with consumption while VM factory no longer having capital to produce inventory. Despite the relatively high revenue, VEAM's net profit in recent years mainly comes from joint ventures and associates. Accordingly, VEAM is participating in the joint venture and owns 20% of charter capital in Honda Vietnam, 30% of charter capital at Toyota Vietnam and 25% of Ford Vietnam. These are businesses operating in automobiles and motorcycles assembling and currently are dominating with leading market share in Vietnam. Business situation of these joint ventures has grown very well in recent years, thereby bringing enormous profits to VEAM.
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