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Update on COVID-19 Projections

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Update on COVID-19 Projections Update on COVID-19 Projections Science Advisory and Modelling Consensus Tables January 12, 2021 Key Findings • Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days. • Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st 198 LTC residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long- term care than in wave 1. • COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health. • Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example. • A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario. • Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect. 2 Total new cases per 100,000 residents per week across PHUs Sept 17 Sept 25 Oct 16 Nov 7 Nov 23 Dec 14 Dec 26 In-person Restrictions Modified COVID-19 RESPONSE Toronto and Peel York and Province-wide classes for on bars and Stage 2 FRAMEWORK enter 28-day Windsor- lockdown all major restaurants begins in Durham, Halton, Eastern lockdown Essex enter 14 days N. ON 400 school York to Protect. Ottawa and lockdown 28 days S. ON boards York to Restrict. Peel to Sept 19 Oct 9 Control + local restrictions. Dec 4 Limits on Modified Toronto remains in Middlesex- social Stage 2 Modified Stage 2. 350 London + T-Bay gathering begins in to Restrict. sizes Toronto, Haliburton to Ottawa, Protect Windsor-Essex, 323 and Peel 300 Recent data subject to day avg.) change - 250 Lambton, 253 Peel, 232 200 York, 197 Niagara, 182 Toronto, 180 Hamilton, 158 Durham, 145 Southwestern, 145 150 Waterloo, 145 Eastern, 142 Middlesex-London, 132 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 128 Chatham-Kent, 126 Halton, 115 100 Haldimand-Norfolk, 106 Weekly new cases per 100,000 residents (7 Brant, 103 Ottawa, 80 Simcoe Muskoka, 72 50 CONTROL (cases ≥ 40) RESTRICT (cases ≥ 25) All Other PHUs, 32 PROTECT (cases ≥ 10) 0 Jan 2 Jan Oct 3 Oct Sep 5 Sep Dec 5 Dec Aug 1 Aug 8 Aug Nov 7 Nov Oct 17 Oct 24 Oct Oct 10 Oct 31 Oct Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep Dec 12 Dec 19 Dec 26 Dec Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Nov 21 Nov 28 Nov Nov 14 Nov 3 Data source: Case and Contact Management System, data up to January 8 COVID-19 testing % positivity across PHUs Sept 24 Oct 6 Nov 7 Nov 23 Dec 14 Dec 26 Testing Assessment COVID-19 RESPONSE Toronto and Peel York and Province-wide guidance Centres move FRAMEWORK enter 28-day Windsor- lockdown lockdown 14 days N. ON 16 update to advance Durham, Halton, Eastern Essex enter booking to Protect. Ottawa and lockdown 28 days S. ON York to Restrict. Peel to 15 Control + local restrictions. Dec 4 Toronto remains in Oct 1 Middlesex- Windsor-Essex, 14% 14 Modified Stage 2. London + T-Bay School & childcare to Restrict. screening guidance Haliburton to 13 change Protect Peel, 13% 12 11 day avg.) - York, 10% 10 Lambton, 10% Toronto, 10% 9 Chatham-Kent, 9% 8 Durham, 8% Southwestern, 7% 7 Waterloo, 7% Halton, 7% Eastern, 7% Hamilton, 6% 6 Middlesex-London, 6% Niagara, 6% Brant, 5% 5 Haldimand-Norfolk, 5% Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 5% Ottawa, 5% % positivity % dailyof testing episodes (7 4 All Other PHUs, 4% Simcoe Muskoka, 3% 3 CONTROL (positivity ≥ 2.5%) 2 RESTRICT (positivity ≥ 1.3%) 1 PROTECT (positivity ≥ 0.5%) 0 Jan 2 Jan Oct 3 Oct Sep 5 Sep Dec 5 Dec Aug 1 Aug 8 Aug Nov 7 Nov Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 24 Oct 31 Oct Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep Dec 12 Dec 19 Dec 26 Dec Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug Nov 21 Nov 28 Nov Nov 14 Nov 4 Data source: Ontario Laboratories Information System (OLIS), data up to January 4 Percent of COVID test results returned within 2 days across PHUs Sept 24 Oct 6 Nov 7 Nov 23 Dec 14 Dec 26 Testing Assessment COVID-19 RESPONSE Toronto and Peel York and Province-wide guidance Centres move FRAMEWORK enter 28-day Windsor- lockdown lockdown 14 days N. ON 110 update to advance Durham, Halton, Eastern Essex enter booking to Protect. Ottawa and lockdown 28 days S. ON York to Restrict. Peel to Control + local restrictions. Dec 4 100 Oct 1 Toronto remains in Middlesex- Toronto, 92% School & childcare Modified Stage 2. London + T-Bay Hamilton, 91% Halton, 90% screening guidance to Restrict. Peel, 86% change Haliburton to Middlesex-London, 86% day avg.) 90 Eastern, 85% - Protect Chatham-Kent, 84% Ottawa, 84% Niagara, 84% Haldimand-Norfolk, 84% 80 Durham, 81% All Other PHUs, 77% Waterloo, 76% Brant, 75% York, 75% 70 Southwestern, 73% Windsor-Essex, 72% Simcoe Muskoka, 71% Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 66% 60 Lambton, 63% 50 40 30 20 % of % episodes testing with results released within 2 of days (7 test 10 0 Jan 2 Jan Oct 3 Oct Sep 5 Sep Dec 5 Dec Aug 8 Aug Aug 1 Aug Nov 7 Nov Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 24 Oct 31 Oct Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep Dec 12 Dec 19 Dec 26 Dec Aug 29 Aug Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug Nov 21 Nov 28 Nov Nov 14 Nov 5 Data source: Ontario Laboratories Information System (OLIS), data up to January 4 Weekly % positivity by age group Weekly % positivity by age group Legend: Data Source: Ontario Laboratory Information System (OLIS), MOH – extracted from SAS VA Jan 10 Note: Includes all data submitted to OLIS up to January 7th 2021. The last six days are considered interim data (week 52) and subject to change 6 Weekly % positivity = total number of positive tests within the week (based on reported date)/COVID tests within the week Cases and cumulative mortality LTC increasing (198 resident and 2 staff deaths since January 1st) Current status COVID-19 cases and deaths for LTC residents and staff 252 LTC homes have COVID-19 1500 outbreaks (40% of all homes) with 105 Daily Active Cases Residents outbreaks involving resident cases 1250 Outbreaks are occurring across almost Daily Active Cases Staff all public health units, with 1000 Cumulative deaths since Sept 1 91 outbreaks (37%) occurring in priority vaccination areas of Toronto, 750 Peel, York and Windsor-Essex Since January 1st, 198 LTC residents 500 have died of COVID-19 and 2 staff deaths have been reported 250 Forecasts suggest there will 0 be more LTC residents deaths in wave Sep 1 Sep Oct 1 Oct Nov Nov Dec 1 Dec Jan 1 2 than in wave 1 (1,815 total deaths) 15 15 1 15 15 Data Source: Ministry of Long-Term Care Tracker, Dec 19th extraction based on data reported up to 3:30 pm Jan 9th, 2021. Data are self-reported by the long-term care homes to the Ministry of Long-Term Care. Daily case and death figures may not immediately match the numbers posted by the local public health units 7 (i.e. iPHIS database) due to lags in reporting time. Projections: second wave cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths >2,600 by Feb 14 in worst case scenario Projected and actual cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths (Sep 1, 2020-Feb 14, 2021) 3,000 2,639 projected deaths as of Feb 14, 2021 (worst case) Projected deaths 2,500 Actual cumulative deaths (MLTC tracker) 2,000 19 deaths 19 - Feb 14, 2021 1,119 actual deaths as of 1,500 Jan 9, 2021 1,000 Last day of forecast: Cumulative LTC resident COVID resident LTC Cumulative 500 0 Predictions: MOH Capacity Planning and Analytics Division 8 Date Data: (Cumulative Deaths): MLTC Tracker Tool Long-term Care Outbreaks July 1, 2020 Public Health Unit 2226 Algoma Public Health Unit 2227 Brant County Health Unit 2230 Durham Region Health Department 2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit 2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 2236 Halton Region Health Department 2237 Hamilton Public Health Services 2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit 2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit 2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit 2242 Lambton Health Unit 2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit 2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department 2247 North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 2249 Northwestern Health Unit 2251 Ottawa Public Health 2253 Peel Public Health 2255 Peterborough Public Health 2256 Porcupine Health Unit 2257 Renfrew County & District Health Unit 2258 Eastern Ontario Health Unit 2260 Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 2261 Sudbury and District Health Unit 2262 Thunder Bay District Health Unit 2263 Timiskaming Health Unit 2265 Region of Waterloo, Public Health 2266 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit 2268 Windsor-Essex County Health Unit Size of outbreak (staff and residents) 2270 York Region Public Health 3895 Toronto Public Health 4913 Southwestern Public Health 5183 Huron Perth Health Unit 9 Long-term Care Outbreaks October 1, 2020 Public Health Unit 2226 Algoma Public Health Unit 2227 Brant County Health Unit 2230 Durham Region Health Department 2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit 2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 2236 Halton Region Health Department 2237 Hamilton Public Health Services 2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit 2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit 2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit 2242 Lambton Health Unit 2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit 2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department 2247 North Bay Parry Sound District
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