Then Tear up the Rulebook
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Want to lead? Then tear up the rulebook Nik Gowing and Chris Langdon reveal disturbing details from their research project into how people at the top struggle to clear a path in a digital age which throws up surprises 12 | the world today | june & july 2016 the world today | june & july 2016 | 13 The leadership challenge In the United Kingdom a majority could insiders whose careers would suffer by about their difficulties in grappling with an vote in June to leave the European Union. admitting failure is almost unheard of. unpredictable and fast-changing world. In the United States, the presumptive Only when he stepped down after 11 years Our interim report, Thinking the Unthink- Republican presidential candidate is Don- at the top did Sir Nicholas Macpherson, able – the New Imperative for Leadership in ald Trump. the British Treasury’s most senior civil the Digital Age, is based on off-the-record Britain out of the EU? President Trump? servant, reveal the ‘monumental, collec- conversations with more than 60 highest- To express incredulity is not a political tive intellectual error’ by him and col- level executives from business and finance, BREWSTER SAM BY ILLUSTRATION judgment. Until a few weeks ago, what leagues in Britain and the United States government, the military and the humani- many viewed as outlandish ‘unthinkables’ before the 2008 financial crisis. In an inter- tarian sector, plus members of the coming were not even being considered or investi- view in April 2016, he said that they ‘failed generation of leaders, the millennials. gated as part of corporate or political risk to see the crisis coming’ and ‘failed to History is marked by the impact of the assessments. Now they have to be. see the build-up of risk’. It was further unexpected. The financial sector faced a The challenge from such unforeseen corroboration of what Andy Haldane, huge shock in 2008. Were the ‘unthinka- developments fits a new and threatening chief economist at the Bank of England, bles’ that unfolded globally from early 2014 pattern for leaders at the highest levels. described to us as a ‘disaster in myopia’. of a quantitatively different scale? Little over a year ago, even the possibility Martin Taylor, co-founder of the Nevsky Several unexpected events in early 2014 of a massive humanitarian surge to chal- Capital hedge fund, announced to inves- had provoked the question. Why had so lenge the EU’s borders and Europe’s gov- tors in December that he was returning many at the very highest levels in western erning elite seemed inconceivable. their money because the new environment leadership roles failed to anticipate Presi- The EU was focusing on saving the euro. ruled out defensible risk assessment. ‘The dent Putin’s seizing of Crimea from Political leaders and their officials dis- laws of economics will never be repealed Ukraine, or the precipitous 60 per cent missed warnings from the United Nations – but for now they are suspended and may fall in oil prices, or the brutal rise of High Commissioner for Refugees and the be for some time.’ so-called Islamic State with the capacity to International Organization for Migration These are not headline-grabbing excep- seize Mosul in northern Iraq? Why had the as too extreme to be taken seriously. tions. They confirm a direction of travel World Health Organization rejected warn- The highest levels of leadership must with implications that are deeply trou- ings of the lethal threat of Ebola in West now assume that a rapid-fire succession of bling. Behind closed doors, executive lead- Africa? And why did Sony Pictures leave abnormal, disruptive events is the new ership at the highest levels faces new vul- itself so vulnerable to a damaging cyber- reality. Yet the scale and frequency of pol- nerabilities that almost none is willing to attack? icy failings shows that the established ways admit to publicly. But they are greater than With anonymity guaranteed, the leaders of major companies, civil servants or min- at any time in recent history. talked frankly. They revealed often stark isterial private offices are no longer config- Inspired by the Churchill 21st Century discomfort that for career and reputa- ured appropriately. Many at the top level Global Leaders Programme, set up to mark tional reasons they would never air in the are in denial. 50 years since Sir Winston’s death, we presence of their immediate peers or at a Public confirmation of this from the wanted to hear from today’s top leaders wider gathering. They confirmed over- Off the record ... quotes from Thinking the Unthinkable Multiple pressures Institutional conformity Wilful blindness ‘There isn’t time to ‘There is in the ‘The wilful blindness think the thinkable, Foreign Office challenge is that never mind the a particularly we try to explain unthinkable. strong tendency to away things that are You are reacting to analyse a particular inconvenient truths’ events and making problem in a decisions on the particular way. basis of imperfect And to not information’ encourage people to challenge it’ 14 | the world today | june & july 2016 The leadership challenge whelmingly that the answer is ‘yes’: they more accurately, they were unpalatable for about: were being caught off guard and their skills leaders. They and those who work for them l Groupthink/wilful blindness and organizations tested to the limit. are often in denial. Data and signals are l Being overwhelmed by multiple intense Almost all agreed that mindsets, behav- usually available. Yet for a variety of inter- pressures iour and systems are rarely adequately nal reasons those signs – and a frank l Cognitive overload and dissonance configured to handle the ‘new normal’. One assessment of what they suggest – are l Institutional conformity l ILLUSTRATION BY SAM BREWSTER SAM BY ILLUSTRATION top European diplomat, for example, con- often marginalized or buried by systems Risk aversion ceded how assumptions of relative policy that discourage the airing of unwelcome l Fear of making ‘career-limiting moves’ ‘tranquillity’ had been ‘shattered’ and assessments. l Reactionary mindsets officials were now struggling to catch up. As one senior executive put it, there is a l Denial ‘Some CEOs are scared stiff,’ confided fear among staff that bosses will ‘chop the The findings prompt the inevitable ques- Paul Polman, Unilever’s chief executive, legs off’ those whose advice might seem to tion asked by every executive leader: so the sole corporate leader willing to speak be off the wall or ‘wacky’. As a result, what are the solutions? There are plenty. on the record. Reflecting the private con- executives or public servants who are con- The trouble is that, as leaders confided to cerns of many, he said organizations cre- cerned about their career prospects feel us, many ‘solutions’ that sound good in ated barriers for their leaders to hide they must conform. This fear of speaking theory often fail for one of two reasons. behind. ‘The more they get paid, the less out and making a ‘career-limiting move’ Either they wither and die because of con- risk they take because it’s very comforta- means that many organizations are aff- formist executive resistance, or they are ble. And it’s better to hang in there … than licted by a ‘frozen middle’ that ‘lacks mus- actively obstructed by those at the top for take a lot of risk.’ His conclusion: ‘We must cle’. This is at a time when the new un- being too radical. be disruptive in taking risks and challeng- thinkables require the opposite – namely Candidly, almost all interviewees con- ing the status quo.’ assertiveness and being proactive. firmed that yet another change to organi- Embedded in this core leadership chal- This explains the ‘wilful blindness’ con- zational systems and structures is not the lenge is an inherent contradiction. How do ceded by leaders as a key reason for their answer. Most accept that the existing current leaders direct a company or gov- failure to address possible but undesirable imperatives for institutional conformity ernment department through a period of outcomes. In itself groupthink is not new – often not readily acknowledged openly fundamental change that questions the or unknown. But of concern is that many but which got them to the top – are getting very conformity which qualified them for leaders acknowledged this as a critical in the way. the top? It is that same conformity which obstacle or blocker to getting updated on The issues are therefore about changing blocks the kind of systemic and behaviour- the unthinkables they should really know culture, behaviour and mindsets. The al changes that are so urgently required. about. And in too many cases organiza- International Committee of the Red Cross Why do leaderships remain reluctant to tional structures and recruitment polices decided in 2015 to confront unchanging conceive of events that then happen? We are reinforcing the problem. mindsets internally. Time to Let Go, a conclude that frequently this was not just From our interviews we identified nine report from the Overseas Development because developments were unthinkable: reasons why unthinkables are not thought Institute, urges such changes across the Off the record ... quotes from Thinking the Unthinkable Groupthink Risk aversion Career-limiting moves ‘I hate to mention ‘You have to find ‘People say to friends, the word diversity, your inner compass Oh that will be a I almost hate the on what you feel CLM. I could do word. But it is true strongly about. If that, but it would that balance in that is so important, be a CLM’ any organization, you’ll be able to in any structure, is take more risks. good. Groupthink We have become is a very dangerous risk adverse’ phenomenon’ the world today | june & july 2016 | 15 The leadership challenge humanitarian sector.