Assessing the Conditions for Multilateral Interventions Or Non-Interventions: Intervention and Non-Intervention in the Asia Pacific Region
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Assessing the Conditions for Multilateral Interventions or Non-Interventions: Intervention and Non-Intervention in the Asia Pacific Region A Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for Degree of Masters of Political Science at the University of Canterbury By Alice Mary Mortlock University of Canterbury 2006 Acknowledgements This thesis is dedicated to my uncle, Simon Rowley, who died before this thesis was completed, but whose 55 years were marked with a strong determination to succeed bar only with a mutual respect for his fellow human beings. I thank my wonderful parents who have provided unlimited support, endless encouragement, phrases such as ‘back your self’, and a positive work ethic. I would like to thank my supervisor, Professor Jacob Bercovitch. He initially sparked my interest in conflict studies and the practice of conflict resolution. I am grateful for his introduction into a study and practice that continues to inspire me. He kept me focused on the key issues throughout the process of writing this thesis when at times the wide scope of the subject matter made this difficult to achieve. I am grateful to the support provided by the Faculty at the Department of Political Science and Communications, in particular, Jim Tully, Head of Department. Their support encouraged me to apply for the F A Hayek Grant and the Marsden Fund Scholarship, and the Department funded my attendance at various important conferences, This financial and academic support enabled me to undertake the research needed for this thesis. I will always be grateful for the opportunities provided by the F A Hayek Grant and the Marsden Fund. Finally, I would like to thank Brigadier Roger Mortlock for his great stories and creative solutions. He provided a practitioner’s insight into a very multifaceted issue. 2 Table of Contents Page List of Figures ……………………………………………………………………. 6 Abbreviations …………………………………………………………………….. 7 Abstract …………………………………………………………………………… 9 Chapter One: Introduction 1.1 The Problem: Internal Conflict and Multilateral Intervention………………………………………………………………... 10 1.2 How to Deal with Internal Conflict………………………………………... 12 1.3 Weapon of Choice: To Intervene or Not to Intervene……………………... 13 1.4 The Question………………………………………………………………. 15 1.5 Methodology: How this Problem will be Tackled………………………… 15 1.6 Defining ‘Internal Conflict’ and ‘Multilateral Intervention’…..……...…… 17 1.7 Political and Legal Backgrounds of Multilateral Decisions to Intervene or to Not Intervene………………………………………..……………………... 23 1.7a Political Considerations………………………………………. 23 1.7b Legal Considerations…………………………………………. 25 1.8 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………. 26 Chapter Two: Literature Review 2.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………... 28 2.2 Expectations from Some Scholars, Practitioners, and International Bodies of the Conditions that Should Make Multilateral Intervention An Attractive Option……………………………………………………………………… 30 2.3 The Nature and Scope of Past and Current Research……………………… 32 2.3a Dispute Issues……………………………………………… 35 2.3b Characteristics of the Conflict……………………………... 36 2.3c Characteristics of the Disputants and the State in which the Conflict is Occurring……....................... 40 2.3d Intervener Characteristics………………………………….. 46 2.3e The Nature of the Relationship Between the Potential Intervener(s) and the Disputants…………………………… 51 2.3f Information from Previous Intervention Efforts or Outcomes……………………………………….. 46 2.3g Media Coverage…………………………………………… 46 2.3h Time or Duration….……………………………………...... 49 2.3i Phrase of Conflict………………………………………….. 49 2.3j Other Disincentives ……………………………………….. 49 2.4 Key Themes that have Dominated the Literature …………………………. 52 2.5 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………. 56 Chapter Three: Theoretical Framework 3.1 Introduction………………………………………………………….…….. 63 3.2 Three Key Assumptions Underlying the Framework…………………...…. 64 3.3 Research Design…………………………………………………………… 67 3.4 Operationalization of the Structural Conditions…………………………… 71 3 3.4a Dispute Issues………………………………………………………… 71 3.4b Intensity………………………………………………………………. 72 3.4c Duration………………………………………………………………. 74 3.4d Capabilities of the Intervener and Disputants………………………... 77 3.4e Number of Disputants………………………………………………… 78 3.4f Strategies and Tactics Employed by the Disputants……………...…... 78 3.4g Superpower Opposition or Support………………...………………… 82 3.4h Identifiable and Organized Disputants……………………………….. 83 3.4i Resistance Levels to Intervention by Disputants………………….….. 83 3.4j Status of the Government……………………...……………………… 84 3.4k Economic Wealth of the State………………………………………... 85 3.4l The Economic Importance of the State in Conflict…………………… 86 3.4m Media Coverage……………………………………………………… 86 3.4n International Environment……………………………………………. 87 3.5 Operationalization of the Perceptual Conditions………………………….. 87 3.5a Likelihood of Success (or Failure)………………………….………... 87 3.5b Any Clear Exit Points…………...……………………………………. 88 3.5c Humanitarian Concerns: UPM Crisis and Genocide/Politicide…...…. 88 3.5d Level of Outrage……………………………………………………… 91 3.6 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………. 92 Chapter Four: Application of the Framework 4.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………... 93 4.2 Intervention in East Timor………………………………………………… 94 4.3 Intervention in Solomon Islands……………………………………......... 109 4.4 Non-Intervention in Southern Philippines (Moro)……………………….. 122 4.5 Non-Intervention in West Papua.………………………………………… 137 Chapter Five: Analysis and Discussion 5.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………. 149 5.2 Primary Conditions that Attract Multilateral Intervention ………………. 149 5.3 Primary Conditions that Deter Multilateral Intervention………………… 151 5.4 Results in Comparison…………………………………………………… 154 5.5 Assessing the Value of the Non-Overlapping Conditions: The Conditions of Primary Importance to the Multilateral Decision to Intervene or to Not Intervene………………………………………………………………….. 155 5.5a Duration……………………………………………………………... 155 5.5b Consent……………………………………………………………… 156 5.5c Nature of the International Environment…………………….……… 157 5.5d Status of Government ………………………………………………. 158 5.5e Any Clear Exit Points or an Exit Strategy.………..………………… 160 5.5f Reputation Interests…………………..…………………………...… 160 5.5g Economic Importance of the State in Conflict …………………...… 161 5.5h Media Coverage………………………………….............................. 162 5.5i Phase of Conflict ……………………………………………………. 162 5.6 Assessing the Primary Conditions that were Prevailing in Both Multilateral Decisions to Intervene and to Not Intervene.…………………………….. 164 5.6a Introduction…………………………………………………………. 164 4 5.6b Escalation Phase ……………………………………………………. 165 5.6c Tactics and Strategies of Disputants ………………………………... 165 5.6d Economic Wealth of State in Conflict ……………………................ 166 5.6e No Concerted Media Coverage …………………….......................... 166 5.6f Likelihood of Success ………………………………………………. 167 5.6g Refugee or IDP Humanitarian Crisis……………………………….. 168 5.6h Genocide/Politicide ………………………………………………… 168 5.6i Level of Outrage…………………………………………………….. 169 5.7 Costs, Risks, Benefits, Connectivity and Level of Outrage……………… 171 5.7a Multilateral Intervention……………………………………………. 172 5.7b Multilateral Non-Intervention………………………………………. 173 5.7c Multilateral Non-Intervention – though Considered Intervention………………………………………………………..……... 175 5.7d Political Will………………………………………………………… 175 5.8 Conclusion……………………………………………………………….. 176 Chapter Six: Conclusions 6.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………. 177 6.2 Summary of Findings…………………………………………………….. 178 6.3 The Implications of the Findings………………………………………… 184 6.4 Recommendations……………………………………………………….. 186 6.4a Institutionalizing the Duty to Protect: New Criteria for Multilateral Decision to Intervene …………………………………………………….. 188 6.4b Institutionalizing the Barriers Against Intervention: New Criteria for Non-Intervention Decisions……………………………………………… 190 6.4c The Question of Evidence………………………………………….. 191 6.4d Difficulty with Gaining a Consensus………………………………. 191 6.4e Mobilizing International Political Will…………………………….. 193 6.5 Conclusion……………………………………………………………….. 194 Appendix ………………………………………………………………………… 196 References ……………………………………………………………………….. 202 5 List of Figures Page Figure 1: To Intervene or to Not Intervene: Policy Decisions or Choices………... 13 Figure 2: Conditions that May Attract or Deter Multilateral Intervention into Internal Conflicts as Discussed in the Literature..…………………………………. 32 Figure 3: Model of Structural and Perceptual Conditions that Attract and Deter Multilateral Intervention…………………………………..……………………….. 69 Figure 4: Summary of Key Structural and Perceptual Conditions………………... 70 Figure 5: The Conflict Life Cycle………………………………………………… 75 Figure 6: Positive and Negative Modes of Conflict Resolution………………….. 79 Figure 7: Summary of Conflict and Multilateral Intervention in East Timor - Measurements and Evidence of Structural and Perceptual Conditions……….…… 107 Figure 8: Summary of Conflict and Multilateral Intervention in the Solomons - Measurements and Evidence of Structural and Perceptual Conditions…….…….. 120 Figure 9: Summary of Conflict and Multilateral Non-Intervention in the Philippines – Measurement and Evidence of Structural and Perceptual Conditions……………. 135 Figure 10: Summary of Conflict and Multilateral Non-Intervention in West Papua – Measurements and Evidence of Structural and Perceptual Conditions…………… 147 Figure 11: Diagram of the Primary Conditions for Multilateral Intervention……. 151 Figure 12: Diagram of the Primary Conditions for Multilateral Non- Intervention…………………………………………………………………........