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The Money and Bond Markets in March 1975

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The Money and Bond Markets in March 1975 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 89 The Money and Bond Markets in March The decline in short-term interest rates that character- THE MONEY MARKET, BANK RESERVES.AND ized the past several months continued in March. Most MONETARY AGGREGATES short-term rates decreased only slightly, however, from their levels of the preceding month. The average rate on Interest rates on most money market instruments gen- large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) fell by erally foUowed a downward course in March, as they had only 25 basis points in March from its level in the previ- in recent months (see Chart I). The effective rate on ous month. Similarly, the rate on commercial paper aver- Federal funds moved about 50 basis points lower at the aged but 27 basis points less than its average in February. beginning of the period and then fluctuated around the 5½ The Federal funds rate averaged 5.54 percent in March, percent level for the remainder of the month. For March down 70 basis points from its average in February. Early as a whole, the funds rate averaged 5.54percent, its lowest in the month, the Board of Governors of the Federal level since December 1972. Rates on CDs in the secondary Reserve System approved a reduction in the discount rate market also moved downward over the month, although from 6¾ percent to 6¼ percent at all Federal Reserve they backed up at the end of March. In the commercial Banks. paper market, interest rates were unchanged at the be- While private demand for short-term credit remained ginning of the month but fell as the period progressed. sluggish in March, huge corporate and Treasury borrow- For example, after holding steadily at 6¼ percent early ing weighed on the bond market. A record of $4.6 billion in March, the rate on 90- to 119-day dealer-placed com- of bonds was issued in the corporate sector, and $10 mercial paper moved down by 35 basis points in a series billion net was raised by the Treasury. Among the new of steps that brought it to 6 percent near the end of the Treasury issues was $1.25 billion of fifteen-year bonds. month. The bid rate on bankers' acceptances also declined This, in conjunction with the abundance of newly issued and closed the month at 5¾ percent, down 30 basis corporate bonds, caused long-term yields to rise sharply points from its end-of-February level. over the period, in most cases back to their mid-January Business demands for short-term credit remained slug- levels. Estimates of the future Federal deficit were revised gish in March. At weekly reporting commercial banks, upward during the month. Yields on Government coupon business loans fell by $179 million over the four state- securities increased, and Treasury bill rates rose despite ment weeks of the month, bringing the total decline in such declines in other money market rates. The tax-exempt loans thus far in 1975 to about $5.6 billion. In part, the market was also subject to these influences, although new drop in business loans at banks over the January-March issue activity was moderate. In addition, the effects of the period resulted from shifts of some business borrowing to financial difficulties of the New York State Urban Devel- the commercial paper market, as banks' prime lending opment Corporation (UDC) and concern over the finan- rates have lagged the fall in commercial paper rates. How- cial position of New York City weighed on the market. ever, over this three-month period, the combined total of Preliminary data indicate that growth of the narrowly business loans at weekly reporting banks plus nonfinancial defined money stock (M1) accelerated sharply in March. commercial paper outstanding has fallen $3.5 billion, in This is the second month in a row that M1 has experienced contrast to an increase of $6.4 billion over the comparable relatively rapid growth. The strong performance of M1 in period of 1974. Along with the weakness in business loan March was accompanied by rapid expansion of the more demand in March, most major banks reduced t'heir prime broadly defined money stock (M2). lending rate by I percentage point to 7½ percent. Major 90 MONTHLY REVIEW, APRIL 1975 Chart SELECTED INTEREST RATES january - March1975 BONDMARKET YIELDS —Percent 11.00 10.00 New Ann rated public utility bond 9.00 Aaa.roted seasoned corporatebonds 8.00 3-to S-year Governmentsecurities ——- ————----— I 7.00 Governmentsecurities -term'20.yeortoo-exempt b inds — 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 Ill 11111 II liii I I II II I 1111111! 1111111111 11111111 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 19 26 January February March Note: Dataare shown br busin.ss days only. MONEY MARKET RATES QUOTED: Prime commercial loon rote at most molar banks; standard Aoa.roted bond al at least taenry years maturity; dailyaverages ot of on offeringrates (quoted in terms of rote of discount) on 90. to ll9.dayprime commercial yields on seasonedAaa.rated corporate bonds; doily averages yields popes quotedby three at the tine dealers that reporttheir rates, or the midpoint al long-termGovernment securities )bondsdo. orcallable ie ten yearsor more) the range quoted if no consensusis oeailable; the effectiv,rat. on Federal lands and on Governmentsecurities due in three to live yg2m, computed on the basis like rote mostrepresentative of the transactions executed);closing bid rates )qsot.d oiclosing bid prices; Thursdayaverages of yields on twenty seasonedtwenty- in terms of rate at discount)on newestoutstanding three.monthTreasurybifis. year tou..oempt bonds carrying Moodysratings of Aaa, Aa, A, and Baa). YIELDS Yields an new Aao.rated bonds are based Sources: FederalReserve Bank of NewYork, Board of Governors of the Federal BOND MARKET QUOTED: publicutility The an prices asked by saderwriting syndicates,adjusted to make them equivalent to a ReserveSystem, Moody. InnestarsService, Inc., and Band Buyer. banks became somewhat more active in issuing CDs, and ponent of M1 participated in the surge, rising over the the volume of CDs outstanding rose in March by $969 same period at a 15.1 percent pace, while the currency million. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Re- component increased 13.3 percent. However, M1 had ac- serve fell by $26 million in the four-week period ended tually fallen sharply in January, so that the rapid growth March 26, averaging $113 million for the same period registered in the subsequent two months left M1 in March (see Table I). only 3 percent higher, at an annual rate, than its level According to preliminary data, the money stock mea- of thirteen weeks earlier (see Chart II). Over the year sures advanced in March at a relatively rapid pace for the ended in March, M1 rose 4.3 percent. second month in a row. After increasing at a seasonally M—which adds to M1 time deposits less large nego- adjusted annual rate of 6.8 percent in February, M1— tiable CDs—continued to grow rapidly in March. Partly private demand deposits adjusted plus currency outside as a result of lower short-term interest rates, which banks—rose at a 14.7 percent annual rate in the four- boosted flows into time and savings deposits, M grew dur- week period ended March 26 from its average level in the at a 13 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate four weeks ended February 26. The demand deposit corn- ing the four weeks ended March 26 from its level FEDERAL RESERVE BAI"K OF NEW YORK 91 over the four statement weeks in February. In the thirteen- Table I week ended March rose 8 at an FACTORS TENDING TO INCREASE OR DECREASE period 26, M7 percent MEMBER BANK RESERVES, MARCH 1975 annual rate. contrast the stock In to money measures, giowth In millions of dollars; (4-) denotes Increase of the adjusted bank creditproxy—which includes member and (--) decrease in excess reserves bank deposits subject to reserve requirements plus certain the Chances In daily averages.— nondeposit liabilities—remainedsluggish in March, as week ended Net drop in the seasonally adjusted volume of CDs outstand- Factors . changes March March March March ing partially offset advances in member bank demand and 5 12 19 26 time deposits. the month, the Federal Market Commit- During Open "Market" factors tee announced that it had voted to speed up publication Member bank required reserves 60 143 — 223 — 201 — 223 of the records of policy actions taken at each of its + + Operating transactions (oubtotal) — +2.709 — 893 —3.348 —1.541 monthly meetings. Henceforth, policy records will be re- Federal Reserve float — 604 + 425 — 125 — 503 — 607 leased with a of delay approximately forty-five days, Treasury operatlons + 677 +2.260 + 207 —2,990 + 148 rather than with the followed. ninety-day lag previously Gold and foretin account — 40 + 30 2.3 — 44 77 At the January meeting, the Committee decided that the Currency outside banks + 210 — 355 — 827 — 73 —1.045 economic situation and outlook called for more rapid Other Federal Reserve liabilities growth in the monetary aggregatesover the months ahead and capital — 252 + — l + 69 + 42 than occurred in recent months. It adopted ranges of Total "market" factors + 51 +2.852 —1.118 —3.549 —1.784 tolerance for the growth of M1 and M, respectively, over Direct Federal Reoei've credit the January-February period of 3½ to 6½ percent and transactions 7 to 10 percent. market Open Operations (subtotal) + 193 —3.025 + 677 +3.078 +1.523 Outright holdlngs THE GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET Treasury securities —232 —1.840 + 411 +3.024 +1.363 flankers' acceptances + 24 — — 10 — + 11 March was marked by a sharp increase in the yields Special certificates — + 238 + 277 — 515 — - on intermediate- and long-term Government securities.
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