Stjórnmálafræðideild MA-ritgerð í alþjóðasamskiptum Nordic security dynamics: Past, present – and future? Kristmundur Þór Ólafsson Júní 2009 Stjórnmálafræðideild MA-ritgerð í alþjóðasamskiptum Nordic security dynamics: Past, present – and future? Kristmundur Þór Ólafsson Júní 2009 Leiðbeinandi: Alyson Judith Kirtley Bailes Nemandi: Kristmundur Þór Ólafsson Kennitala: 150281-7179 2 Abstract The security situation that has traditionally characterized Norden has been described as a periphery under pressure. Despite being geographically peripheral the Nordic region has been the subject of considerable tension in the last centuries. The Nordic countries – albeit having significant cultural similarities - have not approached the security challenges of their region as a united security bloc but have rather chosen to follow distinctly national agendas while preferring practical and non-integrative solutions to some of the most pressing challenges. Their mutual cooperation has taken a ‘de-securitized’ form that is not uncommon in modern sub-regional institutions but has been elevated to a positive merit by some Nordic theorists. Nordic divergence has been emphasized by the different security experiences the Nordics faced in the First and Second World War, and by the Cold War when national diversity enshrined in the ‘Nordic balance’ was seen as a force for peace. However, the Post-Cold War security environment has changed both the traditional understanding of the nature of security, and the concrete challenges and expectations facing Nordic states. Up to 2008, the different countries’ reactions to such pressures have shown as much divergence as convergence. The question is whether greater Nordic unity and ‘securitization’ of the Nordic cooperation agenda could be brought about by, first, a new set of proposals presented to Nordic Ministers in 2009 (the Stoltenberg Report), and second, the larger new security challenges emerging in the High North. The present analysis suggests that these particular two impulses may still be insufficient. 3 Preface The decision to write about Nordic security relations was not taken at any specific moment in time but rather developed gradually throughout my studies at the University of Iceland. Throughout my studies I had been interested in the Nordic states, and in particular the special pattern of institutional alignments that characterizes the area. Nordic peculiarity or 'specialness' seemed to be a recurring theme in studying the Nordic countries and this 'specialness' served to increase my interest consistently. Another area of studies that fascinated me was the security changes we are experiencing in today's world. In my view this new security environment seemed to outdate some of the more basic security theories and concepts in international relations, and emphasized a need to address security in a way that was different from and more multidimensional than the more classical theories seemed to suggest. So when asked in my last semester what I wanted to write about, combining these subjects in some way seemed like an obvious choice and a good way for me to approach my final assignment. During my work on this thesis I have benefited from the help of many of my friends and colleagues whom I would like to thank for their input and support. I would especially like to thank Baldur Þórhallsson and Silja Bára Ómarsdóttir for their guidance throughout my studies. For help provided with regard to sources, I would like to thank Alma Sif Kristjánsdóttir, Jón Kristinn Ragnarsson, Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson, Kristófer Hannesson and Margrét Cela. I also would like to thank Pertti Joenniemi, Jean Marc Rickli and Louise Hamilton for their willingness to give their time and for their input and advice. Finally, I especially would like to thank Alyson Bailes for excellent guidance and input during the writing of this thesis as throughout my studies. Without the help of these people this thesis would not have been possible. Responsibility for the final contents presented here, is of course, entirely mine. This thesis is the final assignment in the MA studies of International Relations at the University of Iceland. It accounts for 30 ECTS credits and the instructor was Alyson Bailes, Adjunct Lecturer at the University of Iceland. Kristmundur Þór Ólafsson. 4 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................ 3 PREFACE .......................................................................................................................................... 4 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 7 1. THEORIES AND CONCEPTS USED IN THIS STUDY: ............................................................. 11 1.1. OLD AND NEW CONCEPTIONS OF SECURITY ............................................................................. 11 1.2. (DE)SECURITIZATION, SECURITY AS A SPEECH ACT. .................................................................... 18 2. SUB‐REGIONALISM ........................................................................................................ 21 2.1. CHARACTERISTICS OF SUB‐REGIONAL COOPERATION ................................................................. 21 2.2. SUB‐REGIONAL COOPERATION IN NORDEN .............................................................................. 25 3. NORDIC COOPERATION .................................................................................................. 28 3.1. A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN NORDEN’S SECURITY ENVIRONMENT .............................. 28 3.2. NORDIC COOPERATION, DURING AND AFTER THE GREAT WAR .................................................... 33 3.3. NORDIC COOPERATION DURING AND AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR ........................................ 35 3.4. THE NORDIC BALANCE ........................................................................................................ 38 3.5. THE HISTORY AND EVOLUTION OF NORDIC RELATIONS ............................................................... 40 4. NORDEN IN POST‐COLD WAR EUROPE ............................................................................ 43 4.1. A CHANGE IN STRATEGIC SITUATION ....................................................................................... 43 4.2.1. A shift of security agendas: Military policy .................................................................. 46 4.2.2. A shift of security agendas: Non‐Military security ....................................................... 48 4.3. SECURITIZATION OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION .......................................................................... 51 4.3.1. The securitization of European Integration. ............................................................ 51 4.4. THE EFFECT ON EU MEMBERS .............................................................................................. 53 4.5. THE EU’S IMPACT ON NON‐MEMBERS AND NORDIC CONVERGENCE. ............................................ 55 4.6. INTEGRATION PATTERNS: 'SOFT' AND 'FUZZY' SOLUTIONS ........................................................... 57 4.7. REACTING TO CHANGES: CURRENT NATIONAL STRATEGIES IN NORDEN. ........................................ 60 4.7.1. Denmark: ................................................................................................................. 60 4.7.2. Finland: .................................................................................................................... 62 4.7.3. Iceland: .................................................................................................................... 65 4.7.4. Norway: ................................................................................................................... 67 4.7.5. Sweden: ................................................................................................................... 69 5. NORDEN AND THE STOLTENBERG REPORT: PROPOSALS FOR INCREASED SECURITY COOPERATION IN NORDEN. .................................................................................................... 72 5.1. GENERAL REMARKS AND INTRODUCTION: THE LEVEL OF AMBITION .............................................. 72 5.2. RELEVANCE AND APPROPRIATENESS. ...................................................................................... 73 5.3.1. The Positive factors pushing for the proposals: ....................................................... 79 5.3.2. The negative factors obstructing the proposals: ..................................................... 79 6. THE ARCTIC AGENDA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON NORDIC COOPERATION: ........................... 82 6.1. AN INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL DEVELOPMENTS. WHAT IS THE ARCTIC AGENDA? .......................... 82 6.2. COULD ARCTIC DEVELOPMENTS FACILITATE NORDIC POLICY CONVERGENCE? .................................. 84 6.3. WHAT ARE THE FACTORS PUSHING FOR DIVERGENCE? ............................................................... 86 6.4. IS THE ARCTIC A 'BIG BOYS’' GAME? ..................................................................................... 87 7. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................... 88 8. BIBLIOGRAPHY: .............................................................................................................. 94 5 Table of figures TABLE 1.1: TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY APPROACHES TO SECURITY: