Monthly Report January 19 – February 19, 2002

Summary

• continued to experience a generally normal to below-normal rainy season. The dry spell in the southern parts of the country is of great concern as this has extended into some high- producing districts in Southern Province (), Western Province () and the southern parts of Central Province. Crop yields in these areas are expected to be significantly reduced as a result. In some areas, crops have passed the permanent wilting point.

• Zambia’s neighboring countries of Malawi, Mozambique, and particularly Zimbabwe have also experienced well-below normal rainfall this season.

• Zambia’s food security situation continues to be of great concern, as the availability of staple food (maize) remains limited this late into the marketing season. Many households are also having problems purchasing maize as a result of exceptionally high prices.

• The World Food Program started its relief food distribution program on January 24. So far, progress has been good despite the slow rate of relief food being brought into the country. Out of the estimated 42,000 MT requirement, only 12,000 MT has been purchased in South Africa for distribution to Zambia. Response from donors has been slow. As of February 12, 1,800 MT of maize was received from South Africa, all of which has been moved to the targeted districts.

1.0 Rainfall and Crop Condition

1.1 Rainfall

Generally, the rainy season in Zambia so far has been characterized by normal to below-normal rainfall. Normal rainfall has been confined to northern and central parts of Zambia. Meanwhile, the southern parts of the country have experienced prolonged dry spells.

During the last dekad of January, there was widespread heavy rainfall over most of Zambia, except for in the southern part of the country. The southern areas—which include Southern Province and parts of Western Province (Senanga, Sesheke, and Shangombo Districts)—have continued to experience dry spells.

During the first dekad of February, Zambia received mostly light rainfall over the northern and central parts of the country. This was caused by a weak inter-tropical convergence zone oscillating over northern and central Zambia. Southern, Lusaka, Western and parts of Central Provinces remained dry. Recent reports from indicated that this area has also experienced a worrisome dry spell that is causing water stress on the crops.

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1.2 Crop Condition

Widespread rainfall over the northern parts of Zambia coupled with sufficient sunshine hours have been conducive to good crop development. In areas that have been receiving good rainfall, the Department of Meteorology has reported good crop development. These crops are generally at the flowering and tasseling stage.

In areas that have been relatively dry, such as Southern Zambia, crops are reported to have permanently wilted, with significant yield losses expected. These areas include Livingstone, Kalomo, Zimba, and Kazungula (Southern Province); and Senanga, Shangombo, and Sesheke (Western Province). Even if normal rainfall resumed, the crops are beyond recovery.

As of the first dekad of January, additional areas were reporting a prolonged dry spell, with crops under severe water stress. These areas include Choma (Southern Province), Lusaka (), Kaoma (Western Province) and the southern parts of Central Province. These conditions are certain to adversely affect yields as crops are currently in a critical stage of development. Dry conditions in these areas were continuing into the second dekad of February.

The prolonged dry spell in the southern parts of the country is worrisome as it is likely to exacerbate already existing food insecurity problems. Some affected districts, such as Kazungula and Kalomo Districts (Southern Province) and Sesheke and parts of Senanga Districts (Western Province), experienced the same problem in the last growing season. As a result, food insecurity in these areas will likely continue into the next marketing/consumption season (2002/2003 season).

The rainfall deficit has also greatly affected other countries in the region. Figure 1 shows rainfall estimates for southern Africa and compares them with normal rainfall for the period. Indeed, neighboring Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique are experiencing similar rainfall deficits as Zambia.

Figure 1: Satellite imagery showing the rainfall situation in southern Africa

Figure 1

Source: SADC Remote Sensing Unit

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FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report: January 19 – February 19, 2002

2.0 Food Security Situation

The food security situation in Zambia continues to be concerning. Maize and maize meal remains in critically short supply in rural and urban areas, which is keeping prices high. Low-income households are feeling the most pressure from this situation as they struggle to access this important staple food. Imports continue to trickle in to the country at a rate that is not meeting demand.

The tender by Food Reserve Agency (FRA) to import 40,000 MT maize has been awarded to two companies: Corporate International of South Africa (20,000 MT) and Maungu Feed Company of Tanzania (20,000 MT). The re-tendering of this 40,000 MT (part of the 149,450 MT) was necessitated by the withdrawal of Demissa from the initial tenders that were awarded. The FRA reported that the maize from Tanzania will be landing at US$243/MT; while that from South Africa will land at US$262/MT. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the Government, FRA, the two new suppliers, and millers (five millers to purchase the maize) specifying the terms of the import arrangements was signed in the first week of February. This action paves the way for this maize to start moving soon.

The FRA indicated that as of February 19, 55,000 MT of imported maize from the three suppliers (Uganda Trade, Sable Transport and Miombo) had arrived in the country. With increased rate of maize imports by Uganda Trade and start of importation from Tanzania at a good rate, maize meal supply on the local market could drastically improve. Currently, the flow of grain from Uganda has been slower than for the other two suppliers. With the current rate of importation, it is not possible that the full 149,450MT planned imports will be met in the current marketing season. It’s possible that the early maize harvest (end of March) by commercial farmers and the availability of green maize could significantly improve the supply of maize to the market.

However, prices are expected to remain high compared to past years until June 2002 when maize from the harvest enters the market. To help increase the availability of maize in the market, the Government recently announced the removal of import duty on maize for major importers. Reports from the Agricultural Commodity Exchange established that in the forward trading arrangement for the current crop, prices for March to May local maize deliveries will be in the range of US$235/MT to US$180/MT, with the March 2002 delivery attracting the highest price. This suggests that prices will remain high.

3.0 Food Relief Situation

The first consignment of the 12,000 MT of relief food purchased from South Africa by WFP with donor support arrived in Zambia on January 23, 2002. This is part of an estimated requirement of 42,000 MT. Food began to be distributed to target districts the following day.

As of February 12, a total of 1,800 MT maize grain had been moved to the districts for onward distribution to affected populations by relevant NGOs. At that time, households in 20 districts (out of the targeted 24 districts) had received some food assistance. The remaining four districts are expected to receive their first consignment by the end of February 2002. WFP’s target was to distribute 3,187 MT in the first month, suggesting that WFP so far has met 57 percent of that target. WFP had delivered more than half of the amount it held within 19 days, and is awaiting more maize from South Africa to continue deliveries. WFP has quickly processed and delivered all food that it has received. Figure 2 depicts the districts targeted for the current WFP relief program. Some of the districts that were

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FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report: January 19 – February 19, 2002 identified for assistance have become impassable at this time of the year, and relief food can only be ferried by helicopters. Among the districts that may be considered for air lifting are , the valley areas of and parts of . Arrangements for air lifting are to be discussed with the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, which would make use of the Zambian Air Force.

FIG 2: WFP FOOD RELIEF TARGET AREAS FOR 2002.

Nakonde

Mungwi Isoka Luwingu Kasama Chinsali Chilubi Chama

Mpika

Lufwanyama Masaiti Mambwe Mufumbwe Kasempa Chadiza Nyimba

Kalabo Luangwa Senanga Namwala Itezhi-tezhi

Sesheke FOOD RELIEF TARGET AREAS

Kazungula NON TARGET AREAS

Source: FEWSNET/WFP

Generally, donor response to support WFP’s relief program this year has been very slow despite the extent of the problem and the fact that the Presidential elections ended a long time ago. Initially, most donors were reluctant to support the program due to impending elections, which took place in December 2001. Additional donor support is needed to help alleviate the current food security problems, which could extend into the next marketing season in some areas.

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