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Poverty Trends in South Africa 2017 Poverty Trends in South Africa An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015 THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND Koch Street, Salvokop, Pretoria, 0002 Private Bag X44, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa User information service: +27(12) 310 8600, Fax: +27(12) 310 8944 Main switchboard: +27(12) 310 8911, Fax: +27(12) 310 8944 Website: www.statssa.gov.za, Email: [email protected] Poverty Trends in South Africa An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015 Statistics South Africa, 2017 Dr Pali Lehohla, Statistician-General Report No. 03-10-06 Poverty trends in South Africa: An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015 / Statistics South Africa Published by Statistics South Africa, Private Bag X44, Pretoria 0001 © Statistics South Africa, 2017 Users may apply or process this data, provided Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) is acknowledged as the original source of the data; that it is specified that the application and/or analysis is the result of the user's independent processing of the data; and that neither the basic data nor any reprocessed version or application thereof may be sold or offered for sale in any form whatsoever without prior permission from Stats SA. Stats SA Library Cataloguing-in-Publication (CIP) Data Poverty trends in South Africa: An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015 / Statistics South Africa. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa, 2017 Report No. 03-10-06 138pp ISBN: 978-0-621-45754-4 A complete set of Stats SA publications is available at Stats SA Library and the following libraries: National Library of South Africa, Pretoria Division National Library of South Africa, Cape Town Division Library of Parliament, Cape Town Bloemfontein Public Library Natal Society Library, Pietermaritzburg Johannesburg Public Library Eastern Cape Library Services, King William's Town Central Regional Library, Polokwane Central Reference Library, Mbombela Central Reference Collection, Kimberley Central Reference Library, Mmabatho This report is available on the Stats SA website: www.statssa.gov.za Copies are obtainable from: Reprographics, Statistics South Africa Tel: 012 310 8619 012 310 8161 Email: [email protected] For technical enquiries, please contact: Werner Ruch Tel: 012 406 3317 Email: [email protected] Contents Preface 1 Acknowledgements 2 Cautionary notes 3 Chapter 1: Introduction 5 1.1 Introduction 6 1.2 Background to the surveys 6 1.3 Background to the national poverty lines 7 1.4 The 'social wage' 8 1.5 Structure of this report 10 Chapter 2: Key findings 13 2.1 Poverty from 2006 to 2015 14 2.2 Progress towards NDP targets 16 2.3 Inputs for SDG reporting 27 2.4 Brief analysis of economic and social conditions in South Africa between 2000 and 2016 42 Chapter 3: Findings on individual poverty 55 3.1 Introduction 56 3.2 Poverty and sex 56 3.3 Poverty and population group 57 3.4 Poverty and age 59 3.5 Poverty and education 61 3.6 Poverty and province 64 3.7 Poverty and settlement type 67 3.8 Summary 69 3.9 Additional tables for LBPL and FPL 70 Chapter 4: Findings on household poverty 77 4.1 Introduction 78 4.2 Household poverty and sex 78 4.3 Household poverty and population group 80 4.4 Household poverty and age 82 4.5 Household poverty and education 84 4.6 Household poverty and province 86 4.7 Household poverty and settlement type 89 4.8 Summary 90 4.9 Additional tables for LBPL and FPL 92 Chapter 5: Findings on household expenditure 97 5.1 Average household expenditure 98 5.2 Household expenditure for poor and non-poor households 99 5.3 Household expenditure and sex by household head 106 5.4 Quintiles 108 5.5 Household expenditure in rural and urban areas 109 5.6 Summary 110 Chapter 6: Explanatory notes 113 6.1 Poverty lines 114 6.2 The instruments of data collection 117 6.3 How the surveys were conducted 118 6.4 Data collection 119 6.5 Time span 120 6.6 Sample coverage 120 6.7 Response details 120 6.8 Comparison to previous poverty reports 121 Chapter 7: Concepts and definitions 123 References 127 List of tables Table 1.1: Comparison of past four household expenditure surveys (IES & LCS) 7 Table 1.2: Inflation-adjusted poverty lines, 2006 to 2017 (per person per month in rands) 8 Table 1.3: Proportion of households that had access to the listed services between 1996 and 2016 9 Table 2.1: Poverty headcounts and the number of poor persons in 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015 14 Table 2.2: Poverty gaps in 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015 16 Table 2.3: NDP poverty and inequality-related targets 17 Table 2.4: SDG indicators based on poverty and inequality-related targets 28 Table 2.5: SAMPI measures by province for 2001, 2011 and 2016 32 Table 2.6: Ranking of provinces using poverty headcount from 2001 to 2016 35 Table 2.7: Proportion of people living below 50% of median income per capita by age (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 42 Table 3.1: Poverty measures by sex (UBPL) 57 Table 3.2: Poverty measures by population group (UBPL) 58 Table 3.3: Poverty measures by age (UBPL) 60 Table 3.4: Poverty shares by age (UBPL) 61 Table 3.5: Poverty measures by educational level attained for individuals aged 18 and older (UBPL) 63 Table 3.6: Poverty share by educational level attained for individuals aged 18 and older (UBPL) 64 Table 3.7: Poverty measures by province (UBPL) 64 Table 3.8: Poverty measures by settlement type (UBPL) 68 Table 3.9: Poverty measures by sex (LBPL) 70 Table 3.10: Poverty measures by population group (LBPL) 71 Table 3.11: Poverty measures by age (LBPL) 71 Table 3.12: Poverty measures by educational level attained for individuals aged 18 and older (LBPL) 71 Table 3.13: Poverty measures by province (LBPL) 72 Table 3.14: Poverty measures by settlement type (LBPL) 72 Table 3.15: Poverty measures by sex (FPL) 72 Table 3.16: Poverty measures by population group (FPL) 72 Table 3.17: Poverty measures by age (FPL) 73 Table 3.18: Poverty measures by educational level attained for individuals aged 18 and older (FPL) 73 Table 3.19: Poverty measures by province (FPL) 73 Table 3.20: Poverty measures by settlement type (FPL) 74 Table 4.1: Poverty measures of households by sex of household head (UBPL) 79 Table 4.2: Poverty measures of households by population group of household head (UBPL) 81 Table 4.3: Household poverty shares by age of household head (UBPL) 83 Table 4.4: Poverty measures of households by age of household head (UBPL) 83 Table 4.5: Poverty measures of households by educational level of the household head (UBPL) 85 Table 4.6: Household poverty shares by educational level attained for individuals aged 18 and older (UBPL) 86 Table 4.7: Poverty measures of households by province (UBPL) 86 Table 4.8: Poverty measures of households by settlement type (UBPL) 90 Table 4.9: Poverty measures of households by sex of household head (LBPL) 92 Table 4.10: Poverty measures of households by population group of household head (LBPL) 92 Table 4.11: Poverty measures of households by age of household head (LBPL) 92 Table 4.12: Poverty measures of households by educational level of household head (LBPL) 93 Table 4.13: Poverty measures of households by province (LBPL) 93 Table 4.14: Poverty measures of households by settlement type (LBPL) 93 Table 4.15: Poverty measures of households by sex of household head (FPL) 93 Table 4.16: Poverty measures of households by population group of household head (FPL) 94 Table 4.17: Poverty measures of households by age of household head (FPL) 94 Table 4.18: Poverty measures of households by educational level of household head (FPL) 94 Table 4.19: Poverty measures of households by province (FPL) 95 Table 4.20: Poverty measures of households by settlement type (FPL) 95 Table 5.1: Average annual household consumption expenditure in 2015 by population group of household head and change from 2006 99 Table 5.2: Average expenditure on food items by poverty status 102 Table 5.3: Percentage distribution of average annual household consumption expenditure on main expenditure groups by settlement type, 2006–2015 110 Table 6.1: The reference food basket based on the IES 2010/2011 116 Table 6.2: Data collection activities by week for the IES 2005/2006 and LCS 2008/2009 118 Table 6.3: Data collection activities by week for the IES 2010/2011 and LCS 2014/2015 119 Table 6.4: Response rates for the IES 2005/2006, LCS 2008/2009, IES 2010/2011 and LCS 2014/2015 121 List of figures Figure 2.1: Poverty headcounts based on the FPL, LBPL and UBPL (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 15 Figure 2.2: The number of poor persons in South Africa (in thousands) (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 15 Figure 2.3: Proportion of population living below the lower-bound poverty line (LBPL) by sex (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 18 Figure 2.4: Proportion of population living below the lower-bound poverty line (LBPL) by population group (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 19 Figure 2.5: Proportion of population living below the lower-bound poverty line (LBPL) by sex and population group (2006, 2006, 2011 and 2015) 19 Figure 2.6: Poverty gap for the lower-bound poverty line (LBPL) by sex and population group (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 20 Figure 2.7: Gini coefficient based on income per capita and expenditure per capita (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 21 Figure 2.8: Gini coefficient (income per capita) by population group (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 22 Figure 2.9: Gini coefficient (expenditure per capita) by population group (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 22 Figure 2.10: Share of income going to the bottom 40% in South Africa (2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015) 23 Figure 2.11: Share of income for bottom 40% of income
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