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Secondary Cities in South Africa: the Start of a Conversation Background Report

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Secondary Cities in South Africa: the Start of a Conversation Background Report SSeeccoonnddaarryy cciittiieess iinn SSoouutthh AAffrriiccaa:: TThhee ssttaarrtt ooff aa ccoonnvveerrssaattiioonn TTHHEE BBAACCKKGGRROUUNNDD RREEPPOORRTT March 2012 Author: Lynelle John Programme Manager: Geci Karuri-Sebina Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................................. 2 FOREWORD ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 A HIERARCHY OF CITIES ............................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 SECONDARY CITIES WITHIN THE URBAN HIERARCHY ..................................................................................................... 10 1.3 THE SOUTH AFRICAN CHARACTERISATION OF SECONDARY CITIES ............................................................................... 14 2. ABOUT THIS REPORT ......................................................................................................................................... 17 2.1 WHAT THIS REPORT ATTEMPTS TO DO .......................................................................................................................... 17 2.2 OUR CHOICE OF SECONDARY CITIES ......................................................................................................................... 17 2.3 OUR KEY INDICATORS ................................................................................................................................................ 19 3. A PROFILE OF POTENTIAL SECONDARY CITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA .............................................................. 23 3.1 ROADMAP TO THE CITY PROFILES ............................................................................................................................... 23 3.2 LOCATING OUR SECONDARY CITIES ........................................................................................................................... 26 3.3 A PROFILE OF SOUTH AFRICAN SECONDARY CITIES .................................................................................................... 27 4. HOW DO THESE CITIES STACK UP AGAINST EACH OTHER? ......................................................................... 50 4.1 WHERE ARE MOST SOUTH AFRICANS LIVING? ............................................................................................................ 51 4.2 WHERE ARE THE DENSEST CONCENTRATIONS OF PEOPLE IN SOUTH AFRICA TODAY? ................................................... 53 4.3 WHICH ARE THE LARGEST CITY ECONOMIES IN SOUTH AFRICA TODAY? ...................................................................... 54 4.4 WHICH CITY ECONOMIES HAVE GROWN THE MOST OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS? ............................................................. 56 4.5 WHERE ARE THE HIGHEST PER CAPITA EARNINGS IN THE COUNTRY? ............................................................................ 58 4.6 WHICH MUNICIPALITIES GENERATE MOST OF THEIR OWN ANNUAL REVENUE? .............................................................. 60 4.7 WHICH MUNICIPALITIES HAVE THE HIGHEST PER CAPITA REVENUE? .............................................................................. 61 5. WHAT DOES APPLYING THE CRITERIA REVEAL? ............................................................................................ 64 5.1 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN SECONDARY CITIES ...................................................................................................... 64 5.2 ECONOMIC CHANGES IN SECONDARY CITIES ............................................................................................................ 65 5.3 CHANGES IN CITIES' PERSONAL INCOME LEVELS ......................................................................................................... 66 5.4 CHANGES IN CITIES' PUBLIC FINANCES........................................................................................................................ 66 5.5 CHANGES IN CITIES' CAPACITY TO GENERATE EMPLOYMENT ....................................................................................... 67 6. ARE THERE ANY OTHER CONTENDERS? .......................................................................................................... 69 7. TAKING THE CONVERSATION FORWARD ...................................................................................................... 71 POSTSCRIPT ........................................................................................................................................................... 73 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................................... 76 2 Secondary cities in South Africa: The start of a conversation Background report Foreword The South African Cities Network (SACN) prides itself on playing an active role in debates on our national urban agenda. There have been a number of recent developments which have triggered our desire to open up a conversation on South Africa's possible 'secondary cities'. The recent release of the National Development Plan by the Presidency has provoked the entire policy and research community to think more carefully about the country's future development trajectory. As the Cities Network, it has motivated us to reflect more deeply on the role that different urban spaces can play in the national space economy. The recently-released National Development Plan describes the human settlement challenge in South Africa: "The landscape has changed since 1994. The Gauteng city-region has reinforced its national dominance and attracted growing migration. The coastal city-regions have performed less well, especially in terms of job creation, largely because the manufacturing industry has failed to gain traction. The performance of smaller cities has been uneven, depending on their dominant industries. Many small towns and rural areas have stagnated or declined, as agriculture and mining have struggled. Parts of the former homelands are changing their economic structure, supported by increased spending from social grants. This is occurring along major transport corridors, in developing tourism areas, and along national borders where trade and transport are growing" (National Planning Commission, 2011) Most of our nine member cities are governed by metropolitan municipalities and that arena has, typically, been the focus of our research papers. However, we have noted an increasing number of enquiries and interest in the subject of 'secondary cities'. This appears to reflect a growing interest in the urban spaces that are not currently considered metropolitan areas, but that appear to be exhibiting strong demographic and economic growth. The recent declaration of Buffalo City and Mangaung as new metropolitan areas, requiring a new form of metropolitan government, has also reawakened interest in the layer of cities that fall just beneath the country's eight existing metropolitan areas. It has made us think, inter alia, about what changes need to occur in a city before it is considered to have evolved into a more complex metropolitan area. This publication attempts to explore the notion of 'secondary cities'. 'Secondary cities', as the literature tells us, play a distinct and fairly specialised role in national life. They often act as catalysts for development in their surrounding regions. They also alleviate demographic pressure from a country's metropolitan areas and, arguably, offer a better quality of life than densely-populated urban conurbations. It may be important for the South African development community to enhance their understanding of these places and the role they could play in the national space economy. This understanding may also lead to better insights about the different types of local government that should govern different spaces. This, in turn, could advance the notion of a 'differentiated approach' to local government in South Africa. This report on South Africa's possible secondary cities is an exploratory one. Its principal aim is to act as a catalyst for debate. We also hope it will stimulate further research and policy work on this 3 Secondary cities in South Africa: The start of a conversation Background report relatively neglected subject in the urban agenda. Given its intent, we would encourage policymakers, researchers and practitioners to view it as a working or discussion paper, and to engage vigorously with its contents. Thus, this report marks what we hope will be the beginnings of a robust debate on secondary cities in South Africa. We've attempted to catalyse that debate by contextualising the discussion, by providing some base information on possible secondary cities, and by posing a few questions. There are, in fact, more questions than answers in this document. We trust that this will stimulate you into exploring the issues raised in this report further. Above all, we hope that this exploration will make us think more carefully about the role of secondary cities in our future development trajectory. Sithole Mbanga Chief Executive Officer: South African Cities Network 4 Secondary cities in South Africa: The
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