Urban Growth in Tianjin, 1993–2003

Urban growth in Tianjin, 1993–2003

Liu Yun September, 2004

Urban growth in Tianjin, 1993–2003

Liu Yun

Thesis submitted to the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in ………………………… (fill in the name of the course)

Thesis Assessment Board

Prof. Dr. D. Webster (Chairman) Prof. Dr. H.F.L. Ottens (external examiner, University Utrecht) Prof. (Douglas) Webster (First ITC supervisor) MSc. R.V. (Richard) Sliuzas (Second ITC supervisor) Mrs Du-Ningrui Msc (SUS supervisor)

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION ENSCHEDE, THE NETHERLANDS

I certify that although I may have conferred with others in preparing for this assignment, and drawn upon a range of sources cited in this work, the content of this thesis report is my original work. Signed ……… Liu Yun …………….

Disclaimer

This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation. All views and opinions expressed therein remain the sole responsibility of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the institute.

Abstract

Chinese cities have experienced a period of rapid urban expansion since the socialist market economic was approved in 1993. The urbanization level increased from 28% in 1993 to 40% in year 2003. As a metropolitan with the third largest population in China, Tianjin city also has made the rapid urban growth under this macro background. Here Tianjin is chosen as the case city to know what is going on about urban development in Chinese big. Furthermore, since the urban growth is inseparable from the urban development policies set by local government such as the master plan, Tianjin’s master plan made in 1995 and the deviation between the real situation and master plan were discussed in this thesis.

In this thesis, the first section is to image the urban physical growth during the period 1993-2003. It is the foundation to know the actual change in study period. Subsequently, the growth analysis is made respectively on both socio-economic and physical aspect. Lastly, awareness of the local policy on urban physical growth and a mainly qualitative evaluation of it are made.

This study uses Landsat TM, Spot, Aster images and the techniques of GIS and Remote Sensing image interpretation and change detection to review the spatial-temporal urban expansion in Tianjin from 1993 to 2003. The image from 1993, 2000 and 2003 are used to derive information on urban land use in study area. Both visual interpretation and supervised classification are used separately to extract land cover in different images. The method of post-classification was used to detect the physical changes during 10 years. The combined use of GIS and RS describes the overall physical changes of the study area. It shows that both Tianjin city proper and other city areas such as Tanggu all expand at a high speed.

The socio-economic development is realized at the metropolitan level, as well as district level, mainly by the increase of population, GDP/per capita GDP, industrial structure and FDI basing on the available data.. While the urban physical growth analysis is done from the perspective of district level, transportation influence, physical form and land use efficiency respectively. Concretely, the growth occurred in each district, orientation, as well as along each main road and corridor is analyzed to understand its temporal-spatial allocation in study area. A further analysis is done joining these two aspects such as the land use efficiency and this partially reveals that there exists some extent of rational- ity of the real distribution of the new urban land, and also reveals the disadvantage of the actual change.

The local urban development policy can be concluded into five aspects respectively relating to the city proper, distribution of industrial land, coastal new districts, peripheral urban conglomeration near city proper and the physical form of the urban system. The assessment of the policy is made by the comparison of the actual change and what the policy expects on each aspect. Basically, the real situation corresponds with the policy expectation, suggesting that the policy effectively lead to the real development of urban growth especially on economy. But there is also strong challenge to realize the expectation of the urban physical form in study area because the actual growth is so fast that the occurrence in some places contradicts official physical plans inevitably. For example, the current pattern of growth in the middle zone between city proper and Tanggu city area/ Dagang city area directly contradicts the official policy, which advocates controlling the physical development except a few spots, and especially keeping interval between each main urban development spot along the line from city proper to Tanggu city area.

Acknowledgements

Now the thesis is ready for my Master Degree in the International Institute for Geo-information Sci- ence and the Earth Observation (ITC) in the Netherlands. It’s time to express my deepest gratitude to all the people who have supported and helped me in the completion of this research work.

First of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Mr. Webster Douglas and Mr. Richard Sliuzas, Especially to Mr. Richard for his effective guidance, supervision, encouragement and support. He was always patient with me and gave me construction suggestions. He taught me how to formalize ideas and thesis. I am very grateful for his invaluable comments on the structure and content of this thesis, which has considerably improved its quality and readability.

I also want to thank my SUS supervisor, Mr. Huang-Zhengdong and Xiao-Yinghui, especially thank for their patient instructions before mid-term assessment. They supervised me to organize the frame- work of this thesis and process the image data. Furthermore, thanks to Mrs Du-Ningrui and Mr. Cheng-Jianquan for their great help in doing this research, their professional comments gave me a lot of help during the course of thesis writing.

Thanks to all members of staff involved in the UPLA programme.

I also want to show special thanks to the SUS of Wuhan University for the opportunity to pursue this master programme. I thank my supervisor in China, Mrs. Zhou-Jie, for her kindness and great support.

I appreciate with great joy all the Chinese people and all the friends in ITC. They have given me numerous helps, happiness and beautiful memories in the Six months in ITC. I am grateful for everything together with you. Best wishes for you and your family.

Also I want to thank all my dearest classmates and friends for their great company both in Wuhan and in ITC in this six months journey.

Special thanks and deeply gratitude are to my dear mother, my elder sisters and their families for their constant support, understanding and love. Also thanks to my nephew, I wish my work could encourage him to study hard.

Finally, I dedicate this thesis to my dear parents. I can’t finish my thesis at all without their love.

Table of contents

Abstract Acknowledgement Table of contents List of figures List of tables

1. INTRODUCTION 1

1.1. Background and problem statement 1 1.1.1. Urban definition and city administrative hierarchy in China 2 1.1.2. The general situation of the land use in Chinese cities today 2 1.1.3. The significance of study the urban growth 3

1.2. Research aim and objectives 4 1.2.1. Research aim and main objectives 4 1.2.2. Sub-objectives 4

1.3. Research questions 4

1.4. Case study Tianjin, China 4

1.5. Research methodology 7 1.5.1. Key definitions 7 1.5.2. Data availability 7 1.5.3. Data processing and analysis 8

1.6. Workflow 9

1.7. Structure of the Thesis 9

2. PATTERNS OF URBANIZATION 11

2.1. Types of urbanized regions 11 2.1.1. The city-region 11 2.1.2. Conurbation 11 2.1.3. The urban field 11 2.1.4. Megalopolis 11 2.1.5. Ecumenopolis 12

2.2. Key Features of the Urban System in modern China 12 2.2.1. Low Urban Concentration 12 2.2.2. The Hukou System. 12 2.2.3. Transformation of the Urban System in China 14 2.2.4. Urban Specialization and Manufacturing Agglomeration 14 2.2.5. Governance 15

2.3. Housing and land markets in China 15 2.3.1. Establishment of housing market 15 2.3.2. Establishment of land market 16 2.3.3. Impacts on urban growth 17

2.4. Urbanization and urban policy since 1978 18 2.4.1. Urbanization since 1978 in China 18 2.4.2. Urban policy since 1978 19 2.4.3. Current strategy for urban development 22

3. IMAGE DATA PROCESSING AND METHODOLOGY 24

3.1. Introduction of the development of Satellite RS Technology 24 3.1.1. Landsat 24 3.1.2. Spot 24 3.1.3. Aster 25

3.2. Description of the three images 25

3.3. Image processing work flow 26

3.4. Geometric correction of the images 26 3.4.1. Introduction to geometric correction 26 3.4.2. Steps of geometric correction 27

3.5. Definition of the boundary of the study area. 28

3.6. Land cover classification 28 3.6.1. Introduction to image classification 28 3.6.2. Image classification in this thesis 31 3.6.3. Visual interpretation 34 3.6.4. Verification of Classification Accuracy 36 3.6.5. Concluding remarks on the comparison of visual interpretation and supervised classification 37

3.7. Urban area change detection of the cities in the study area 37 3.7.1. Introduction to change detection 37 3.7.2. Post classification change detection 38

3.8. Summary 39

4. URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN: 40

4.1. Urban growth in Tianjin from the socio-economic perspective 40 4.1.1. Socio-economic growth of metropolitan 40 4.1.2. Socio-economic growth in each district of study area 43

4.2. Urban growth in Tianjin from the physical change perspective 45 4.2.1. District level analysis of urban growth 45 4.2.2. Analysis of urban growth from the perspective of transportation 50 4.2.3. Form analysis of urban growth 53

4.3. Urban land use efficiency 61

4.4. Master plan and local urban policy 62 4.4.1. Urban master planning 62 4.4.2. Local urban policy 63 4.4.3. Comparing policies and actual urban physical growth 65

4.5. Summary 68

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 70

5.1. Conclusion 70 5.1.1. Urban growth 70 5.1.2. The local urban policy and its effectiveness on urban growth 71 5.1.3. The use of remote sensing image 71

5.2. Recommendations 72

References 74 Appendices 77 Appendix 1 Developed level of Tianjin 77 Appendix 2 Population and population density of Tianjin 77 Appendix 3 Supervised and unsupervised classification 78 Appendix 4 Amount of the FDI in 2002 in Tianjin metropolitan 78 Appendix 5 Proportion of coastal districts on main indicators 79 Appendix 6 Amount of the new urban area per district of two periods 79 Appendix 7 Mater plan (1995-2010) of the Tianjin municipality region 80 Appendix 8 Mater plan (1995-2010) of the city proper and peripheral urban conglomerations 81 Appendix 9 Thefreight traffic in Tianjin from 1978-2002 82

List of Figures

Figure 1-1 Three macro-region, open cities and SEZs in China Figure 1-2 Location of Tianjin Figure 1-3 Region under the administration of Tianjin Figure 1-4 Six Central Districts Figure 1-5 Workflow Figure 3-1 The available image data Figure 3-2 Flow chart of image processing Figure 3-3 The boundary of the study area Figure 3-4 Supervised and unsupervised classification Figure 3-5 The image classification process Figure 3-6 Colour images of RS Figure 3-7 Land cover map by supervised classification (1993) Figure 3-8 Land cover map by supervised classification (2000) Figure 3-9 Land cover map by supervised classification (2003) Figure 3-10 Flow chart of the visual interpretation procedure (Wu, 1998) Figure 3-11 Urban area in Tianjin (results of visual interpretation) Figure 3-12 Urban area changes by post-classification Figure 4-1 Growth of population Figure 4-2 The GDP/ Per capita GDP of Tianjin from 1993-2003 Figure 4-3 Change of the different sectors of GDP from 1993-2003 Figure 4-4 Change of FDI from 1993-2003 Figure 4-5 Growth in Tianjin from 1993-2003 Figure 4-6 Population growth in study area from 1993-2003 Figure 4-7 Population growth in study area from 1993-2003 (unit: 10thousand) Figure 4-8 GDP growth per district Figure 4-9 Per capita GDP growth per district Figure 4-10 Urban area increase in Tianjin Figure 4-11 The new urban area from 1993-2003 Figure 4-12 Amount of urban area per district (sq km) Figure 4-13 Increase extent of urban area per district Figure 4-14 Change of the position according to the share of urban area per district Figure 4-15 The share of urban area per district Figure 4-16 Urban area change from the perspective of three parts Figure 4-17 Annual rate of the urban area increase per district Figure 4-18 the main roads Figure 4-19 proportion of new urban area along each main road from 1993-2003 Figure 4-20 amount and relative proportion of new urban area along each main road Figure 4-21 the zone partition according to orientation Figure 4-22 amount of new urban area per zone Figure 4-23 proportion in total new urban area per zone Figure 4-24 spatial pattern of urban growth-1 Figure 4-25 spatial pattern of urban growth-2 Figure 4-26 the GDP structure of Tianjin from 1993-2003 Figure 4-27 types of urban regions with stylised functional inter-relationships Figure 4-28 indicative image of the corridors Figure 4-29 urban growth within each corridor Figure 4-30 Master Plan (1984-2000) Figure 4-31 the urban area of official expectation in 2010 Figure 4-32 indicative image of urban physical development policy Figure 4-33 actual urban physical growth and expectation of local urban development policy Figure 4-34 amount of industrial enterprise Figure 4-35 growth of industrial product

List of Tables

Table 1-1: Population and population density of Tianjin Table 1-2: available satellite image data Table 1-3: socio-economic data Table 2-1: Urbanization levels in China, 1949-2003 Table 3-1: The source images Table 3-2: Appearance features of the pixels on the pseudo colour image Table 3-3: Area of urban with the method of Visual Interpretation in the study area Table 3-4: the area of urban growth Table 4-1 the socio-economic development from 1993-2003 Table 4-2 Count of new urban area per district Table 4-3 Count of new urban area along main roads Table 4-4 Count of new urban area per zone on different orientation Table 4-5 Count of urban area per corridor Table 4-6 Count of new urban area per corridor Table 4-7 transportation lines along each corridor Table 4-8 ratio of change in urban land to change in population and gross domestic product

URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

1. Introduction

1.1. Background and problem statement Profiting from the open-door policy and economic reform which began in 1979, China has made great progress in many social-economic fields. Many cities especially metropolitans areas, have made rapid and comprehensive developing since then. Now, almost every city has a several-times urban land scale comparing with in 1979. Although the history of urban policy in China has resulted in an urbanization process where cities are significantly undersized and agglomeration economies not fully exploited, China has a de facto urban population of 500-600 million, the largest urban population and system of cities in the world today.

But another problem becomes more and more serious: cities tend to be over-capitalized relative to the rural sector and there is nationally a high degree of individual and regional income inequality. Coastal cities and regions have been favoured at the expense of the hinterlands (Henderson, 2002). This results in wide gap between different regions. According the compendium of tenth five-year plan issued by Chinese construction bureau, until the end of 1999, the urbanization level of eastern region, central region and western region was respectively 37%, 30% and 24% (see Figure 1-1). At the same time, the gap between the later two and the former one keeps enlarging. Since the structures of the economy are very different in the three zones, this implies the different socio economic situation will impact the urban growth greatly, and in different cities, there must be some different drivers for their growth.

Figure 1-1: Three macro-region, open cities and SEZs in China

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1.1.1. Urban definition and city administrative hierarchy in China To have some sense of the geography of urban China and vocabulary of the urban sector, we should know some key city definitions of China.

One of them is the urban definition in official statistics in China. There is a strict standard for assess- ing whether a settlement could be a city or not in China. If a settlement meets the demands as below: (1) Politics: it is the site that the relevant-level government locates; (2) Population: at least 2000 people employ themselves in non-agricultural work if the total population is less than 20000; at least 10% people employ themselves in non-agricultural work if the total population is more than 20000 (3) GDP: more than 0.2 billion Yuan one year, it could be determined as a township by relative department of the country and become a portion of the city system.

Another is the administrative hierarchy. At the top are cities with the administrative powers of a province (Zhi Xia Shi): Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing, -- followed by prefecture level cities (Di Ji Shi) of which there are about 225. Provincial and prefecture level cities administer large land areas, comprised of urban districts forming the city proper and huge extra-urban areas, or rural counties. The definitions of city proper are updated regularly to roughly comprise the contiguous urbanized area of the prefecture, surrounding the nuclear city -- a good definition of the metropolitan area, by international standards. Below prefecture level cities are county-level cities (Xian Ji Shi) -- either traditional county cities or townships that have evolved into cities. These county-level cities can also administer large rural areas, but there is generally no breakdown between the urban and ex-urban portions, making it difficult to count de facto urban populations (Henderson, 2002). Due to this, the statistic data of a top hierarchy city such as Beijing should be more credible than that of a province because of the much less lower level cities under its administration. Basing on this administrative hierarchy, the administrative scope of one higher-level city usually contains several lower-level cities, districts and towns.

1.1.2. The general situation of the land use in Chinese cities today Now, urban construction consists of two main parts in most cities in China. One part is the adjustment of the land-use function in interior urban area, especially in the urban central district. Since China started land reform in 1987, more and more people realize that much greater value should be generated through the proper land use, especially after the beginning of the socialist market economy in 1993. Under the reference of the market economic rules, the main functions of the land use are converted into those which could give rise to much higher value gradually in urban central district, and the process of urban renewal in central city areas goes on today. For example, more and more commerce land has taken the place of manufacture/warehouse land which was developed in the period of planned economy in urban central district. The other part usually includes two aspects: the rapid expansion of the land in urban fringe and the construction of development zone separating from old urban proper, such as high-tech industrial development zone. That means the edge of the urban area is always dynamic and the size of the urban area keeps enlarging rapidly. Because of high development speed, urban managers usually are late to react to the problems appearing in the expansion zone, this may result in some negative influences for the general development of the city. For example, in some cities, many neighbourhood units were founded in the urban fringe zone and most of them have beautiful inner environment and rational price so that they can attract the people who used to live in the

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old urban areas. Those people got much better living environment, but usually the pressure of the traffic between urban fringe zone and city centre is greatly increased owing to poor public transportation or road net. At least on the face of it, massive construction around the edge of urban built-up area is one of reasons why urban transportation in large cities deteriorates.

Of the two main parts mentioned above, the latter is often attached more importance by many cities. There are several main reasons as follows: (1) less building demolition and compensation by suitable site selection; (2) less restrictions for development, it can present modern scene fast; (3) more favourable policies for developers and corporations, it is easy to get investment; (4) people usually take development zone as an effective way for competition with other cities. Although urban governments must invest enough to the development zone in advance, they still are glad to do and make this important achievement for them. As a result, there are now many development zones in different levels in Chinese cities. Obviously, not every city has enough suitable conditions to construct development zone, some development zones are untenable now, and they occupied many agricultural lands uneco- nomically. So, the policy on the expropriation of non-urban land became more and more firm, as China’s central government wants that the land not only meets the need of urban growth, but also makes as less negative influence for agriculture and other non-urban activities as it can.

1.1.3. The significance of study the urban growth In many Chinese cities, a complex interplay of government and private, local, national, and increasingly transnational forces have influenced urban growth. Responding to changes in local, national, and international economic drivers, each city is redefining its economic roles and functions, with direct consequences for the city’s physical form (Schneider, Seto and Webster, 2003). On the other side, it is also difficult to manage urban construction because of the fast development; this means we must think seriously how we can give the effective administration to the cities.

Although almost all the cities have the same macro-factors on urban growth such as economical development, population migration, the same factors could impact urban growth by different way and to different extent. In some cities, the natural situation is the most important driver for urban growth, but that of other cities maybe is social and historical factors. So, it is very important to study what are the main detail drivers of urban growth in a city. The first thing to do is to find out the general directions of urban growth and what are the corresponding drivers, to make proper decision to manage the urban development. This task is not easy to complete, we must realize the characters of the urban area growth through serious study at first.

Remote sensing has been recognized as powerful and effective tools in urban land feature characteri- zation and dynamic change detection. It is an efficient way to study the urban problems in metropolitan area like Tianjin city proper and its extended urban region. In this research the author uses various satellite images to acquire the urban growth information and carry out a spatial-temporal research on the city’s changes.

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1.2. Research aim and objectives

1.2.1. Research aim and main objectives

The main objective is to find out how the urban area form changes and provide a quantitative evaluation of the evolution of urban area form and the socio economic development in Tianjin city proper and the extended urban region. The research seeks to describe and evaluate the effectives of local urban policy in the context of urban growth and socio economic development.

1.2.2. Sub-objectives ·To produce the maps of the urban area form in Tianjin for three time points from satellite images; ·To produce the maps, which present the change of urban growth in Tianjin from 1993-2003; ·To analyze and understand the characters of the urban growth in Tianjin; ·To know the socio economic changes in Tianjin; ·To advise decision-makers on the possible future urban development.

1.3. Research questions gHow to use techniques of RS to derive urban growth information from Landsat TM , Spot and Aster images? gHow does the form of the urban area change in Tianjin from 1993-2003? gHow do the population, production fields, GDP/per capita GDP, FDI and other social-economic factors change in the period of 1993-2000 in Tianjin? gWhat are the main characteristics and trends of the urban growth in Tianjin from 1993-2003? gWhat could be the main drivers that impact the change of the urban area form? gHow about the local urban policy of Tianjin city? gDoes the master planning correspond with the trend of the urban growth in the past?

1.4. Case study Tianjin, China In this thesis, Tianjin city, China is chosen as the case study city. Tianjin, one of the four municipali- ties directly under the Central Government in China, is the biggest open coastal city in northern China and the economy centre of the encircle Bohai Sea zone. Tianjin is situated in the Northeast part of the North China’s plain, with the Beijing city on the northwest and Bohai Sea on the east (see Figure 1-2). According to the research of the Development Study Center of State Council, it belongs to the mid- developed area in China, just like Beijing and Shanghai (appendix 1). Now, Tianjin is making efforts to become a modern port and an important economy centre in northern China.

Administrative Situation: Tianjin is a great metropolitan city covering a total area of 11,920 square kilometres. It has 15 districts and 3 counties (see Figure 1-3). The 15 districts can be divided into three parts: (1) Six central districts: locate in Tianjin city proper, include Heping, Hedong, Hexi, Nankai, Hebei and Hongqiao.(see Figure 1-4) They together cover an area of 168 square kilometres, which makes up 1.4% of the total area; (2) Three coastal districts: on the verge of Bohai Sea, include Tanggu, Hangu and Dagang. They together cover an area of 2257 square kilometres, which makes up 18.9% of the total area; (3) Other six districts: Dongli, Xiqing, Jinnan, Beichen, Wuqing and Baodi, they together cover an area of 4934 square kilometres, which makes up 41.4% of the total area; The 3

4 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

counties are Ninghe, Jinghai and Ji Xian, they together cover an area of 4562 square kilometres, which makes up 38.3% of the total area.

Figure 1-2: Location of Tianjin

Social Economic Situation: The permanent population of Tianjin was 10.06 million in 2002, and as a part of the total, there were 7.50 million people living in the districts under city administration (see appendix 2). As one biggest city in China, Tianjin has a relative advanced economy comparing with the average level of Chinese cities. Until the end of 2002, the GDP was 205116 million yuan and the Per Capita GDP was 22380 yuan (about 2730 US$). Morever, GDP has grown rapidly in the past 20 years.

A part of the urban administrative region will be taken as study area in this study, which includes 13 districts. They are six central districts, three coastal districts above mentioned and Beichen District, Xiqing District, Dongli District and Jinnan District. The boundary of study area is defined during the image data processing and described in chapter 3.

5 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Figure 1-3: Region under the administration of Tianjin

Figure 1-4: Six Central Districts

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1.5. Research methodology

1.5.1. Key definitions Urban land: Delineating the boundary of urban area first requires selecting a definition of urban land. Urban land can be broadly divided into functional and physical definitions. "Urban" in functional terms relates to activities such as industrial, residential, agricultural, etc. However, there are often problems determining which activities should be adopted as urban. Similarly, "urban" can be defined in physical terms, relating either to population density or to land cover, where any developed land is considered urban regardless of its function. There are also variations in the intensity of land uses that influence the definition of urban area, such as high or low housing density. (Bell, Acevedo and Bu- chanan, 2003)

So, the urban area implies the area developed by different kinds of urban construction activities; it contains all the lands which undertake mainly urban function such as residence, commerce, finance, etc. Generally, it includes not only the continuous built-up area for most of urban residents’ activities, but also the land which is located in suburbs but developed to meet the need of city, such as airport, wastewater disposal etc. Furthermore, to a city with different administrative hierarchy such as main city, county, district and town, the urban area of it probably consists of city proper, county town, district town and the relevant townships.

City proper: City proper is defined as a locality with legally fixed boundaries and an administratively recognized urban status that is usually characterized by some form of local government. In this thesis, the city proper implies the main built-up area which relates to the six central districts and their four outer surrounding districts.

1.5.2. Data availability The data includes spatial data and non-spatial data. In this thesis, the former includes different remote sensing images (see Table 1-2) and the land-use maps of 1995 and 2002; the later is mainly social- economic data (see Table 1-3).

We can get much valuable information from these data to understand the temporal and spatial changes of Tianjin urban area. But we must notice maybe these data are not free of discrepancy and errors, we should make sure that the data we use are precise by crosschecking with other information.

Table 1-2: Available satellite image data Sensor mode Sensor Platform Date Multi Spectral TM Landsat-5 15/ 06/ 1993 Panchromatic (pan) HRV SPOT 2000 Multi Spectral VNIR Aster 16/ 10/ 2003

7 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Table 1-3: Socio-economic data Main data Data resource Issue department The systematic statistical data Yearbooks of Tianjin Municipal Statisti- about Tianjin -Tianjin statistics cal Bureau Urban development in China -China cities’ statistics History of the development of ur- Record publications on Tian- Tianjin Urban Planning In- ban planning until 1984 in Tianjin jin’s urban planning history stitute General information of the history 1995-2002 publications of Tianjin Urban Planning In- of the land market development in Tianjin real estate market stitute 1995-2002 Other officially released data on Relative publications Authoritative research or- urban development. ganization

1.5.3. Data processing and analysis To achieve the research objectives, the study will focus on four aspects: (1) Land cover classifications mainly by visual interpretation, and monitoring the urban area of the study area respectively in 1993, 2000 and 2003. (2) Land cover change detection by post-classification basing on the land cover classification results drawn by visual interpretation. (3) Analyze the urban growth in study area from both the perspective of physical change and socio- economical change. (4) Give qualitative assessment on local urban development policy by comparing the actual urban physical change with it. So, this study has been divided into three main phases: (1) Data collection and literature review The Landsat/Spot/Aster panchromatic and multi-spectral images were collected from the image laboratory of ITC and Spot images from Chinese Land Surveying and Planning Institute for the study of spatial-temporal analysis of urban growth in the extended urban region of Tianjin. Some planar maps about the extended urban region were obtained from the Tianjin Urban Planning Institute and they are helpful to determine the information from the remote sense images. Some data such as GDP and Population are collected mainly from the Tianjin statistical yearbook and China statistical yearbook. Furthermore, the theories, methods and problems related to this study will be realized by literature review. (2) Data processing Most of this part are land cover classification and change detection. ķLand cover classification. gGeneration of colour images of 1993, 2000, 2003. gGeoreferencing and resampling the three images with the method of image to image with the image in year 2003. gDefinition of the exact boundary of the study area and create the sub-image of the study area. gLand cover classification with the main method of visual interpretation. ĸChange detection

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gChange detection with the method of “post classification change detection”. gDetect urban area changes between year 1993 and 2000 in the study area both in quantitative and qualitative with the techniques of RS and GIS. gDetect urban area changes between year 2000 and 2003 in the study area both in quantitative and qualitative with the techniques of RS and GIS. (3) Analysis of the urban growth and evaluation of the contemporary local urban policy of Tianjin city. gAnalyze the urban growth of metropolitan and districts respectively. gCompare the physical urban growth and the contemporary socio-economic change in district level. gCompare the actual urban growth and the expectation of contemporary local urban policy.

1.6. Workflow Bases on the methodology above mentioned, this research will be designed as follow (see Figure1-5).

1.7. Structure of the Thesis Abstract Acknowledgement Table of contents List of figures List of tables Chapter 1 Introduction: states the research problems, objectives and questions as well as study area, research methodology and a workflow. Chapter 2 Patterns of urbanization in China: presents a literature review about the theories of urban growth and the outcome of the research related urban growth. Chapter 3 Image data processing and methodology: make classification of lands, determine them from the remote sense images and detect the change of them. Chapter 4 Urban growth in Tianjin: describes the urban growth from the perspective of socio- economic and physical change respectively. Assesses the local urban policy and summerize the main finding.. Chapter 5 Conclusions and recommendations References Appendices

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Research problem statement Research conception and objectives (chapter 1)

Literature review (chapter 2)

Types of Key Features of Housing and Urbanization and urbanized the Urban Sys- land markets in urban policy regions tem in modern China since 1978 China

Socio- eco- Case Study (chapter 3) Urban nomic gBackground of the relative tech- physical growth nology used growth g (chapter 4-1) Image processing (chapter 4-2) gPopulation gUrban area images of different gChange in gGDP/ Per date different periods capita GDP gLocal urban development gDistrict-level gFDI policy (chapter 4-3) change gEconomic g structure Transportation gOther aspects Analysis integrating two aspects influence g gSpatial form Urban land use efficiency gMainly qualitative assessment of of new urban area the local policy

Conclusions and recommendations (chapter 5)

Figure 1-5: Workflow

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2. Patterns of urbanization

This section reviews the theories about types of urbanized region, the key features of the urban system in modern China, the development of housing and land markets in China and their impact on urban growth, as well as the urbanization and urban policy since the 1978.

2.1. Types of urbanized regions The increasing scale of urbanization, urban growth and development of national urban systems has given rise to a number of different forms of urbanized regions:

2.1.1. The city-region This is an area focused on the major employment centre in a region and encompassing the surrounding areas, for which it acts as the primary high-order service centre. The functional relationship between a city and its region was a key feature of central place theory. The city-region remains an appropriate description of monocentred urban areas of up to a million people found in the less densely populated parts of even the most highly urbanized countries. Variants employed for statistical pur- poses include functional urban regions (FURs) and standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs) (Pacione, 2002).

2.1.2. Conurbation This is the term coined in 1915 by Geddes to describe a built-up area created by the coalescence of once separate urban settlements. With improvements in transportation and communications the functional influence of the conurbation has spread beyond the limits of the built-up area, so the term is now widely used in the UK and elsewhere to describe multi-nodal functional urban units. The functional relationships within a conurbation differ from those of a city-region; in essence, while there is a degree of dominance by the largest city, the other urban places also have their own functional linkages (Pacione, 2002).

2.1.3. The urban field This is a unit, similar to the conurbation, used in the USA. An urban field is generally regarded as a core urban area and hinterland of population at least 300,000, with an outer limit of two hours’ driving time. Defined in this manner, urban fields range in population size from 500,000 to 20 million and cover one-third of the USA and 90 per cent of the national population. Urban fields are more spatially extensive than European conurbations since they are based on higher levels of personal mobility, but the concept may become increasingly relevant for understanding the functional reality of urbanized regions outside the USA as similar levels of mobility are achieved through improvements in transport and communications (Pacione, 2002).

2.1.4. Megalopolis This is the term introduced by Gottmann in 1961 to describe the urbanized areas of the northeastern seaboard of the USA encompassing a population of 40 million oriented around the major cities of Boston and Washington. DC. Gottmann subsequently defined a megalopolitan urban system as an urban unit with a minimum population of 25 million. The central importance of transactional activities (in terms of international trade, technology and culture) would indicate a location at a major interna-

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tional ‘breakpoint’ (such as a port-city). A megalopolis would typically have a polynuclear form but with sufficient internal physical distinctiveness for each constituent city to be considered an urban system in its own right. The cohesiveness of the megalopolitan system depends on the existence of high-quality communications and transportation facilities. This megalopolitan phenomenon was iden- tified initially in six zones: the archetype model of the north-eastern USA, the Great Lakes area extending from Chicago to Detroit, the Tokaido area of Japan centred on Tokyo-Yokohama and extending west to include Osaka-Kobe, the central belt of England running from London to Merseyside, the North-West European megalopolis focused on Amsterdam-Paris-Ruhr, and the area around Shanghai. Since then, twenty-six growth areas of the USA have exhibited megalopolitan patterns, while similar trends are evident in Brazil and in Europe (Pacione, 2002).

2.1.5. Ecumenopolis This is the term employed by Doxiades in 1968 to describe a projected urbanized world or universal city by the end of the twenty-first century. Although highly speculative, the ecumenopolis concept does focus attention on the potential consequence of unrestrained urban growth and underlines the importance that is currently being attached to the concept of sustainable urban development (Pacione, 2002).

2.2. Key Features of the Urban System in modern China

2.2.1. Low Urban Concentration Chinese cities are relatively small and equal sized, compared to most countries. The UN puts the population of Shanghai metro area, the largest city, at 12.3m in 2000, although its city proper is only listed at 10.7m in 1998 (with little growth). In either case this is well below the populations of the 10 largest metro areas in the world. More critically is that China only has 9 metro areas with populations over 3 million while it has another 125 or so metro areas with populations from 1-3 million; -- a ratio of .072, compared to worldwide ratio for the same size categories of .27 (Henderson 2002).

2.2.2. The Hukou System. In China, the geographic-urban dispersion of population and the high spatial inequality is maintained by strong migration restrictions, under the Hukou system. Migration restrictions play such a strong role in the society and economy that it is critical to describe them. The Hukou system in China is similar to an internal passport system (Chan, 1994). A person's local "citizenship" and residence is initially defined for a child as a birth right, traditionally by the mother's place of legal residence. The entitlements and details of the system differ for urban and rural residents. Legal residence in a city entitles one to local access to permanent jobs, regular housing, public schooling, and public health care (where almost all health care is public) in that city. Until the early 1990's, it also entitled urban people to "grain rations" -- rations of essentials such as grain and kerosene.

Legal residence in a village or rural township entitles residents to land for farming, township housing, and job opportunities in rural industrial enterprises, and access to local health and schooling facilities in their town. Residents also have some degree of "ownership" in local enterprises; although distributed profits all go to the local public budget, which may be used to finance township housing and in-

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frastructure. Again, until recent years, legal residence in a township also entitled a "peasant" to some share in locally produced (or allocated from the outside) grain and other essentials.

How does a person change their local citizenship? There are several common mechanisms. First is education. A smart rural youth may persist through the competitive county system to get a place in a college. Upon college graduation, the rural youth will be hired into an urban job, with an urban Hu- kou. Second, the state at times can open the gates, permitting factories to hire permanent workers from rural areas, permitting family reunification, or permitting legal migration from rural areas to nearby small cities. However the official changes in residence or Hukou status average about 18 million (in under 1.3% of the population) a year over the last 20 years with little annual variation (Chan, 2000).

People can migrate to an area without local Hukou, or an official change of residence/"citizenship", either illegally ("unregistered") or legally as a temporary worker or as a "permanent resident" on a long-term permit. For example, a rural person may be hired as a "contract worker" in industry or services, for a term of three years. Or a rural person may get permission to work temporarily in another local rural area in construction, food services, domestic services and the like. People may move illegally, without registering in the new location, and work in the informal sector for low pay, under poor conditions, with risk of deportation. Despite these possibilities and despite some recent relaxations of restrictions in particular provinces, the restrictions in migration remain tight.

Temporary migrants to larger cities typically have no, or very high priced access to health care and schooling facilities and regular, "legal" housing. In fact cities have strict national guidelines on conversion of agriculture to urban land; and institutional difficulties in housing markets in expanding supply makes it particularly difficult for migrants to find decent housing. All this means living and social conditions for migrants and their families are extremely difficult, since children face no or very high priced access to schooling and health care. But there are other restrictions. Legal temporary migration requires getting a permit from the city of in-migration and cities can impose various hurdles to getting a permit -- permission from the home location, proof of a guaranteed job and specific housing, and the like. Cities also publish job lists, citing jobs for which migrants are not eligible; in 2000, Bei- jing listed over 100 occupants as non-eligible ones. Migrants may still have to pay taxes to their rural home village for services they do not consume and on land left fallow. Finally migrants face direct fees (Cai, 2000). There is a license fee to work outside the home township paid to the township that can be equivalent to several months' wages. At the destination there can be fees for city management, for being a "foreign" worker, for city construction, for crime fighting, for temporary residence, and even for family planning if the migrant is female. All these restrictions sharply reduce the benefits and raise the costs of migration, particularly into large cities. Migration is limited and most migration is short-term, or "return" migration. Overall the Hukou system holds 100's of millions of people in locations where they are not exploiting their earning potential.

Today, this system is fluctuated by the farmers' frenzied hunt for work in cities and the competition of person with ability between cities. Some provinces and cities such as Ningbo have abolished the re- striction of Hukou conditionally and more provinces and cities are preparing to break this system. Maybe the free migration in China will realize in the near future.

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2.2.3. Transformation of the Urban System in China The urban system since 1950 has faced repeated system-wide political and economic shocks, inducing enormous transformations. Here we focus on the 1990's. We can find in some cases in 1990s, cities contained significant rural agricultural populations that during the decade moved into non-agricultural employment. Second and more critically, population numbers may exclude certain types of immi- grants while employment Figures better reflect them. In particular are shorter-term or longer-term migrants working in the city, who either live in the city but are not counted in population enumeration or who can't obtain housing within the city and reside just beyond the boundaries of urban districts (in often "illegal" rural housing). As a result, it is often better to measure size in terms of non-agricultural employment. Real output per worker grew at an incredible rate during the period; for all cities, the average annual rate was about 7.8% a year. Secondly, over time the manufacturing to service ratio declines. The decline involves some redefinition of manufacturing activity as service activity around 1993-1994 (Henderson 2002).

Looking across the urban system, prefecture-level and above cities are larger and have much greater human capital. Among county-level cities, there are many new cities, which are larger than traditional county cities, have more industry, and are nearer the coast. These cities reflect rapid urbanization and industrialization of former rural towns and townships.

The period 1990-1996 is one of rapid industrial reforms, removing some of the props under state- owned industry and exposing them to increasing competition. Mostly heavily hit were interior and northern heavy industry cities, especially under the reforms in 1993-94. These reforms moved most planning functions to a market basis and represent a break point in terms of how outputs are evalu- ated. Along with the rapid growth of business and financial service activity, the result, in this very short period of time, is to dramatically shake up the urban system.

2.2.4. Urban Specialization and Manufacturing Agglomeration The urban economics literature suggests that efficiency in urban production particularly for medium size cities involves relative and even absolute local specialization in production. For many standard- ized manufacturing activities, localized external economies within the own industry are prevalent. In- dustry-specific agglomeration and hence local specialization is key to industrial efficiency (Eberts and Millen, 1999) for a review of theory and evidence. For China an issue is whether local scale external- ities are not being fully exploited both because local industrial bases are too diffuse and producers within a city are too spatially dispersed, reducing inter-firm information spillovers.

There was no coherent national economic plan before 1978, based on national input-output Tables (World Bank, 1981). In fact no national input-output Table used by Chinese planners existed until the mid-1980's. Planning was done at the provincial level, with provinces tending to autarky, apart from national ministries governing mining, energy, and transportation. As a result, inter-provincial and even inter-prefecture trade was low. Bigger cities tended to try to produce the entire range of manu- factured products. By the mid-1980's, after the economic reforms starting in 1978, (Henderson 1988, Chapter 11) it presents a picture of bigger cities with extremely diversified industrial bases but some degree of relative specialization, but nothing like the specialization seen in cities in countries like USA, Brazil, or India. That pattern appears to persist well into the 1990's. For example, Ningbo, a city

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of only 1.2m people in coastal Zhejiang, based on international 3-digit SIC classifications, still pro- duces in 68 or 70 possible manufacturing categories in textiles, apparel, leather, chemical, plastics, machinery, electronics and instruments sectors, as well as most food, wood, and metals products (from 1998 Ningho Statistical Yearbook). There is some degree of concentration in textiles, apparel, petroleum and electrical equipment (each over 10% of local manufacturing GDP), but that itself is diffuse. Such detailed city data are hard to get on a widespread basis, so it is hard to say how the degree of specialization at the city level has been increasing over time. But more aggregate data suggest increasing specialization. (Fujita and Hu, 2001) in examining provincial level data, find strong evidence of increasing agglomeration from 1985-1994 at the provincial level in textiles, apparel, machinery, electrical machinery, electronics, metal products, and rubber and plastic -- key sectors where localized intra industry scale economies may dominate and where agglomeration is highest. In general the increased agglomeration reflects relative gains by coastal provinces, with the four dominant provinces (out of 30 provinces) having shares of 50- 60% of national gross output value in chemical fibres, rubber and plastics, textiles, garments, electrical machinery and equipment, and electronics by 1994. Note however that in many cases the name of the province with the highest share, which is listed changes from 1985 to 1994. They interpret this growth in agglomeration as "self agglomeration" or clustering promoted by FDI and trade policies that favored industrialization in certain coastal enclaves. Guangdong province around Guangzhou (Canton) with its more freewheeling economics is a big gainer in all of this. By 1994 Guangdong commands market shares in electronic products such as re- corders and cameras of over 85%. In this evolution, one trend at the city level is the development of services, especially business services in major cities. Also a strong positive correlation between prefecture city size and the ratio of tertiary to secondary city activity has developed as the service sector has grown (Henderson 2002).

2.2.5. Governance The final key aspect of the urban system is governance. In general, especially in economic plans for- mulated in the 1980's, spatial hierarchy is a strong notion in China. Big (prefecture-level) cities "lead" smaller (county-level) cities, and both lead rural counties. Politically large cities have some authority over nearby township and county city governments. Higher-level units are favored in terms of tax policy, redistribution, and degree of autonomy. Planning of product lines favored higher level units, granting state enterprises monopoly rights over product lines that rural enterprises were starting to encroach on. This hierarchy notion is also played out in other dimensions -- the spatial allocation of revenue and investment of FDI and trade initiatives, and of transport infrastructure investment (Hen- derson 2002).

2.3. Housing and land markets in China The profound transformation of the context within urban planning operates is the transition from a centrally planned economy to a socialist market economy. Particularly relevant to urban planning are the continuing decentralization of decision-making, establishment of housing and land markets and increase in the number of actors and conflicts of interests in urban development.

2.3.1. Establishment of housing market Housing reform was launched after 1982. Because of the difficulty in the change from administrative to market mechanism, the progress of housing reform is slow. The new policy under the title of “commercialization of housing” is to reduce government subsidy on housing, to encourage individuals

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to buy housing, to increase the source of income for constructing more housing and to solve nation- wide housing shortage. Various programmes have been tested and the Special Economic Zones are the pioneers in housing reform (Phillip and Yeh, 1987). The programmes attempt to increase individuals’ incentive to buy housing and to avoid decrease in living standard because of the reduction of subsidies. Individuals could only pay one third of the price, while the enterprises they belong to and the municipality pay one third of the housing payment respectively. The incentive for buying housing was raised. Old houses were also sold to individuals at discount prices. However, it was soon realized that the government and enterprises could not afford to continue to subsidize the commercialization programmes. Thus, a comprehensive policy had to be devised (Yeh and Wu, 1999). With the rapid development of Chinese economy, more and more private owners emerged and the housing market scale became bigger and bigger. Today, housing construction is the most active element of urban development. This means urban planning is facing multiple actors- the residents, developers (both foreign and domestic real estate companies) and work units.

2.3.2. Establishment of land market Land reform lagged behind housing reform due to the difficulty in justification of land privatization. Both housing and land reform can be viewed as the effort to privatize property ownerships. In the beginning, land reform was not intended to set up a land market in China. In 1982, the Constitution was amended, which declared that all urban land belonged to the state and transactions of land ownership were illegal. Before the amendment of the Constitution, land under the private housing was still owned privately in name. Since the ownership did not bring any benefits to the owner, the abolish- ment of private ownership did not meet any objections. The purpose of land reform at the beginning was to encourage more efficient use of urban land through economic incentives and to protect cultivated land, which was randomly occupied by urban constructions because of the free land use. Since China faced a more serious shortage of cultivated agricultural land, this was an urgent task for the re- formatory government at that time. So, in some cities like Shenzhen, a land use fee was levied. In 1988, the State Council promulgates the “Regulation on Land Use Tax Collection in Cities and Towns” which enabled the city government to collect land use taxes. The era of free use of urban land ended (Yeh and Wu, 1999).

In early 1990s, the legalization of land leasing finished after several pieces of legislation were enacted and promulgated. Since Deng Xiaoping’s southern tour in 1992, the pace of land leasing has been quickened. Now, land leasing does not only involve land parcels in the city proper, but also large tracts of undeveloped land in the Economic and Technological Development Zones (ETDZs). The characteristics of current land markets in China can be summarized into four aspects. First, land ownership is separated from land use right, and land use rights can be transferred through premium and payment. Secondly, the state monopolizes all sources of land supply for urban development. In prac- tice, the municipality decides which land parcel should be put into market. Thirdly, the land use system is a dual system that involves both market and non-market mechanisms. While most of the land is still allocated to state enterprises and infrastructure projects through the administrative method, a small portion of land is allocated through land leasing- i.e. the paid transfer of land use right. Fourthly, there are two basic types of land markets. The primary land market refers to land use right from the state to users, the so-calledþconveyanceÿwhich is in fact land leasing. The secondary land market refers to the transactions of land use rights among users (Institute of Finance and Trade Economics and Institute of Public Administration, 1994). The difference between the ‘conveyance’ and the

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‘transaction’ in this context was used to ensure that a parcel of land had conveyed from the state before it could be transacted. The policy enables the municipality to monopolize the supply of land leasing.

The establishment of land markets lead to a boom of real estate companies. Since 1992, the building industries have undergone accelerating commercialization. More companies emerged. At the time, speculation increased. The huge differences in land price between administrative allocation and land leasing through negotiation, tender and auction lead to speculation. Some real estate companies en- gaged in the transaction of land without genuine development. To control rampant speculation, the City Real Estate Management Act was enacted in 1994. At the same time, the State Council asked local government to tighten up company registration. Development zones without proper approval were shut down. Transaction tax was levied on the transfer of land use right without substantial development. Developers also had to turn in value-add tax if they obtain windfall income from the land (Yeh and Wu, 1999).

2.3.3. Impacts on urban growth Localized urban management makes the municipality more powerful than before to regulate and intervene in urban development. No matter what kind of land users that development control deals withü state enterprise under the direct control of a supervisory sectoral department or foreign investorsüthe urban planning system now has the right to require all developments to conform to urban plans.

Housing reform has freed the work units from direct provision of housing. Thus, the housing estate can be developed at an economic scale and the municipality can prepare a comprehensive plan of housing construction and service facilities. With the reduction in the power of sectoral departments, service facilities begin to be provided by the municipal government rather individual work units. The former pattern of self-contained development based on individual work units has been broken and has been gradually replaced by overall planning and management by the city government.

Land reform has stimulated the development of property markets. Land leasing also brings about land revenue and planning gain to city government. So, the infrastructure can be funded and urban environment improved. Because of the re-emergence of land prices, the dilapidated housing in the city centre can be demolished and the residents compensated to the place where land is cheaper. The difference between the land prices can facilitate redevelopment and speed up restructuring of land uses (Yeh and Wu, 1995; Wu, 1997).

One implication of the decentralization and establishment of real estate markets is the emergence of new actors in the urban process. Previously, urban development was undertaken by state enterprises and their supervisory departments. The state could control urban development through resource allocation. The interaction mainly took place between territorial and sectoral government departments. The transition has brought multiple actors. First, real estate development companies have been set up. They are different from previous state construction teams in that they are developers with independent profit motivation. Particularly, after foreign investment joined the real estate markets, the previous linear interaction has become more complicated. These new actors have different interests and goals. This significantly transformed the role of municipality from a project coordinator to a planning authority that is using development control to intervene in development processes. The emergence of

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new actors and changing role of previous state work units and local governments means a redefinition of the þrules-of-the-gameÿin the planning process in which the conflicts and balance of interests are inevitable. The change will require urban planning to undertake the role of a mediator and, more im- portantly, to make urban planning more statutory and urban growth more methodic (Yeh and Wu, 1999).

2.4. Urbanization and urban policy since 1978

2.4.1. Urbanization since 1978 in China The procession of urbanization in China is unique because of the unstable policy on urban development that results in a long-term low level of urbanization. Since 1979, the urbanization level has increased (see Table 2-1), but there are obvious differences for the urbanization level among different zones. Generally, from the viewpoint of history, the urbanization road in China presented unbeliev- able strong undulation. In this thesis, the review of the urbanization procession will focus on the period 1978-present.

The "four modernizations" in 1978 started to introduce market forces into China. Here we note three key elements of the economical reform: ķThe personal responsibility system was introduced into agriculture, moving agriculture away from a commune system to a quasi-market system where increasingly individual farmers chose their own crops and inputs, and sold increasing portions of output at free market prices. Compared to an annual growth rate of agricultural GDP of 1.4% from 1957- 1978 (far less than the rural population growth rate), the annual growth rate for 1978-1984 is 7.3%, which then levels off at 3.7% for 1984-1992 (Perkins, 1994). Further productivity advances in agriculture are limited by two items relevant to the urban sector -- continued restraints on rural-urban migration and continued diversion of capital away from the rural sector, as well as failure to enact full property right reforms in the rural sector. ĸWhile urban state-owned industry [SOE] was subject to reforms attempting to introduce incentives for workers and managers, SOE's still faced soft budget constraints, rigid employment, wage, and compensation policies, and constraints on production choices (Jefferson and Singhe, 1999). Industrial reform really came through first the vast expansion of the collective, mostly rural, industrial sector and then the expansion of private industry in the 1990's, with the state-owned sector increasingly withering away. ĹReforms also altered the composition of national output, away from heavy industry towards first lighter, consumer-oriented manufacturing and then services, with both playing a role in urban policy. Nationally China's service sector accounted for 15-23% of GDP in 1978 (with the percent depending on whether domestic/historic (15%) or international 1990 (23%) prices are used). Today the share has risen past 30%. But it is still far short of the 42+% found in low-income countries or the 52+% found in low-middle income countries.

Since 1978, China’s urbanization has been speeded up. The number of cities increased from 193 in 1979 to 668 in 1999. Among these cities there are 37 extra-large ones with populations above one million; 48 large cities with populations between 500,000 and one million; 205 medium-sized cities with populations between 200,000 and 500,000; and 378 small cities with populations less than 200,000. The number of medium-sized cities has increased fairly rapidly, and that of small cities has grown the most rapidly. In the eastern coastal areas, city groups (belts) with extra-large cities as the centres have been formed, such as the Bohai Bay, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urbanized areas. The

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policies of reform and opening to the outside world have greatly strengthened the cities’ comprehensive strength. Between 1988 and 1996, the urban GDP grew by 18 percent on average annually, with the cities’ centring status and role becoming more and more prominent.

According to the publication of the Department Research Centre of the State Council of P. R. China (DRC), the urbanization level will be 60% in 2020. The latest statistic implies that the urbanization level has reached 40.53% until the end of 2003. It implies that the urbanization level will increase about 1.17% per year from now to 2020. It also implies most cities will have a large-scale development in the coming two decades and future, more attention to the research of their expansion is required. Table 2-1: Urbanization levels in China, 1949-2003 Year Total popu- Urban population Rural population lation amount Proportion (%) amount Proportion (%) 1949 10.60 1978 962.59 172.45 17.92 790.14 82.08 1980 987.05 191.40 19.39 795.65 80.61 1982 1008.18 210.82 20.91 797.36 79.09 1985 1058.51 250.94 23.71 807.57 76.29 1990 1143.33 301.95 26.41 841.38 73.59 1991 1158.23 312.03 26.94 846.20 73.06 1992 1171.71 321.75 27.46 849.96 72.54 1993 1185.17 331.73 27.99 853.44 72.01 1994 1198.50 341.69 28.51 856.81 71.49 1995 1211.21 351.74 29.04 859.47 70.96 1996 1223.89 373.04 30.48 850.85 69.52 1997 1236.26 394.49 31.91 841.77 68.09 1998 1247.61 416.08 33.35 831.53 66.65 1999 1257.86 437.48 34.78 820.38 65.22 2000 1267.43 459.06 36.22 808.37 63.78 2001 1276.27 480.64 37.66 795.63 62.34 2002 1284.53 502.12 39.10 782.41 60.90 2003 1292.27 523.76 40.53 768.51 59.47 Resource: China Statistics Year Book 2002 and the Statistics Communiques 2003 of Chinese NBS

2.4.2. Urban policy since 1978 There are implicit and explicit urban policies. The key implicit policy is that the Hukou system remains in place, so free migration with a permanent change of residence is still not a feature of China. However China's urban population growth rate is 4.5% for 1978-1990 versus 2% in the previous 11 years. So migration policy as part of urban policy has changed.

As defined in part by the 1982 Sixth 5-Year Plan, as well as the Seventh 5-Year Plan, the period has a set of initially defined urbanization policies that persist today. First urban population was to expand, but through the rapid growth of smaller cities relaxing Hukou transfers at the level, while containing

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the sizes of larger cities. The 1990's witnessed the rapid growth in number of cities, as many places were recognized as having passed 100,000 urban population mark. General urban population expansion has also been fueled by rapid growth, particularly in coastal towns, of township populations, always pushing these towns towards (or past) the 100,000 mark to be a city (Ma and Fan 1994).

In the Sixth and Seventh 5-year plans there is a sense of hierarchy, played out both in governance structures and in economic policy. Larger cities are to lead smaller ones and rural areas; the coast is to lead the centre and west. "Leading" has many dimensions. Larger cities focus on newer production -- initially high tech and light industry and then business service development in recent years. Large cities receive new technologies and hand-down traditional activities to their hinterlands, in particular contracting-out parts and components production to small cities, towns, and rural areas, and relocating heavy, polluting production to their peri- or exurban areas. This is not to say these changes are the consequence of planning. Rather planning may have been consistent with natural market forces, and helped ignite them. Many research revealed the move of industry from the urbanized city proper in specific prefecture level cities to the ex-urban rural hinterland areas of these prefectures after 1990. Suburbanization of manufacturing to lower wage cost ex-urban or fringe area with potentially more readily available land is part of market driven urban spatial development. Mature manufacturing firms in core cities typically suburbanize once their need for core city information spillovers, declines and illustrates the existing ex-urbanizational industry achieved by 1990. Moreover, some research revealed the rapid growth of business services in all regions and showed their relatively high level in the three traditional provincial cities -- roughly a 3-fold higher level than in the rest of the country in terms of share of local GDP. More generally among prefecture level cities, as in other countries, a negative correlation between city size and the ratio of secondary to tertiary sector activity has developed. By 1997 most major cities in China, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Changsha proudly reported that they had passed the 50% mark -- over 50% of local GDP from the tertiary sector. Again given China's low service production, expansion of this sector in response to market forces is not sur- prising.

Another aspect of urbanization policy, implicit and as part of big cities leading the rest, is played out in the development of rural industry -- the town and village enterprise (TVE) sector. The rapid productivity growth in agriculture after 1978, coupled with prior restrained urbanization, meant a vast surplus of labour in agriculture. Given the desire to continue to restrain urbanization (although at a much higher rate after the 15 or so years before 1978), a policy of "leave the land but not the village" was crafted. So the rural sector was to industrialize, but generally not spatially agglomerate. TVE development was constrained by under-capitalization, an inability to spatially agglomerate, and in the 1980's policies restraining its competition with SOE's (followers are not supposed to out-compete leaders!). However, TVE growth was rapid: starting from an initial miniscule level, by 1997 VA in the TVE sector was twice that in remaining SOE's (independent accounting units). TVE's had hard budget constraints, fewer regulations, and greater ability to respond to input (hiring and promotion, choice of sellers of intermediate inputs) and output (product demand) market conditions. By the early 1990's, Jefferson and Singhe (1999) document how TVE total factor productivity exceeded SOE's, ascribing that to the greater operational freedom and hard budget constraint of TVE's, illustrated by Murakami, Liu, and Otsaka (1996) in terms of buying and contracting-out decisions. Still TVE sector development was constrained by the under-capitalization of the rural sector that has been a feature of modern China. Based on micro data, Jefferson and Singhe show that the rate of return on capital in the

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TVE sector in 1997 exceeded that of SOE's by 25%. Similarly Au and Henderson (2002) calculate that, while the social marginal product of labor in prefecture level cities is only 7% higher than in the TVE sector, the marginal product of capital in the TVE sector in 1997 is 40% higher than in prefecture level cities. In calculating social marginal products of labor in the urban versus rural sector another aspect of "leading", or bias in the urban-rural allocation of resources concerns education. The higher wage and compensation returns to labor in the urban sector combined with college education being the key to permanent migration from rural to urban areas, means the more educated population is funnelled into cities. An area of investigation is the very high social returns to education in the rural sector, improving township allocation decisions of resources between agricultural, animal husbandry and TVE activities (Yang and Au, 1997; also Au and Henderson, 2002).

In addition to these policies governing rural-urban (and big city-small city) allocation of capital and labour there are other much more explicit policies with a spatial bias (Chan, 1994; Yang, 1997; Naughton, 2002; Fujita and Hu, 2001). While they have some big city-small city/town flavor, they also have a coastal versus rest of the country flavor. Arguably the key element is initial policies that directed FDI and trade to certain coastal cities. In the early (1979) reforms, 4 coastal special economic zones, centered on 4 prefecture level cities were created to encourage free market experimentation, an inflow of FDI, and development of international trade. In the mid-1980's, 14 more coastal cities were declared as open cities to foreign investors, with 2 more coastal cities added by 1990. In addition 10 cities (half overlapping with open status) were given separately listed status -- economic decision making powers equal to the provincial cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing.

According to the research output of Fujita and Hu (2001), the 14 open cities and 4 spatial economic zones accounted for 42% of national FDI from 1984-1994. In 1990, the 24 "special status" cities (special economic zones, open, and separately listed) plus Beijing accounted for 65% of all FDI in prefecture level cities, while accounting for only 36% of value-added in non-agricultural production of prefecture level cities. This initial advantage persists, despite opening of the entire economy. These 25 cities account for 63% of all FDI accumulated from 1990-1997 in all prefecture (or provincial) level cities. It takes the upper quartile of all cities in terms of their ratio of accumulated FDI from 1990- 1996 (in dollars) divided by their 1996 GDP (in RMB), and then divides that upper quartile into four quartiles in terms of ranking of relative accumulated FDI. The cities in the top group are heavily con- centrated along the coast, except for a few inland special cities. They also argued persuasively that the agglomeration of electronics and light manufacturing in coastal areas such as the region around Guangzhou is due to these initial policies promoting FDI and trade in these favored coastal areas. The effect is reflected in the ratio of investment occurring in coastal versus interior regions: in 1984 the ratio is 1.12 while 10 years later it is 1.93 (see also Naughton, 2002). These policies and their impacts are deliberate spatial policies of the Sixth and Seventh 5-year plans, favoring development in a spatial hierarchy of the coastal region. The expanding trade within these favored regions, tended to reduce rural-urban income inequality, because trade helped the TVE sector in the urban fringe (rural) areas.

The final aspect of spatial bias involves governance and fiscal relations. Fiscal rules and inter- governmental relations in China are not well defined and transparent. Revenue redistribution contracts send monies coming from the center back to provinces and cities; up to the mid-1990's these appeared to favor bigger and richer cities. But much official public expenditure is extra budgetary -- local reve- nues retained within localities (Jin and Zou, 2002). What is retained and the specifics of a city's fiscal

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allocations from above, whatever the rules, are in part the result of bargaining. And in the hierarchy of big city versus small or coast versus interior, the bigger and the coastal have greater bargaining power. Actual results depend on the personalities and power of local leaders, with an interesting literature on China documenting this (Peter T.Y. Cheung, Jae Ho Chung, and Zhimin Lin, 1998). Bigger cities have more effective fiscal autonomy and more control over key appointments (e.g., heads of local state- owned banks which become a source of funds and subsidies of local industries). Cities compared to rural areas are favored with the ability to offer lower tax rates on FDI firms. The issue is a difficult one and there has emerged no clear way to quantify the fiscal advantage of one city or set of cities over others. But the spatial bias and lack of transparency is a key feature of China's urban sector.

2.4.3. Current strategy for urban development China’s current Five-Year Plan (2001-2005) projects a 1-percentage point increase per annum in the urbanisation rate (the proportion of the population living in urban areas). This means that more rural villages will become reclassified as towns and more towns will be reclassified as cities (http://www.accci.com.au/urbdev.htm, 2004).

Perhaps of greater significance, with China’s current population growth rate, and with the projected urbanisation rate, within the next 5 years China will have 87.3 million more people living in urban areas.

If 20 per cent of this increase occurs from newly classified urban areas, then about 70 million people will be added to existing urban areas. If another 20 per cent of this increase is attributed to the reclas- sification of towns into cities, then an additional 56 million people will be added to existing cities. We cannot be certain that these percentages will occur, but it is nevertheless clear that the growth rate of China’s cities will be much more rapid during the next 5 years than it was in the recent past. Simi- larly, we cannot be certain which of the existing cities will grow more rapidly, but the scale of the growth is sufficiently large to justify a close monitoring of urbanisation patterns in China. The Cham- ber’s “key cities” approach is part of that monitoring process. It is expected to provide practical in- sights into business opportunities in China. These opportunities are likely to be substantial. The urban development cost in China is estimated to be RMB 60,000 per capita. With the projections given above, this translates into an expenditure of RMB 4.2 trillion for existing urban areas during the next 5 years.

China’s urbanisation strategy, as stated in the current Five-Year Plan, places emphasis on the following: (1) Accelerating the development of small towns. This will focus on a small number of existing towns with good infrastructure and generally good potential to enable them to grow into medium- sized cities. (2) Developing international metropolises. Efforts will be made during the next 20 years to enable cities such as Beijing and Shanghai to become internationally competitive and to be classified as “global cities”. (3) Upgrading cities as regional centres. This is sometimes referred to as the “constellation plan” for urban development, through which regional cities are developed in conjunction with the outlying areas (smaller cities and towns) in such a way that they function collectively.

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(4) Constructing and developing new cities. This is particularly relevant to China’s vast central and western regions where the urban density is relatively low. It will allow greater attention to be placed on new urban development, rather than on urban renewal. It is also consistent with the desire of the central government to reduce the regional disparities in income and wealth.

(5) Designing and guiding areas with a high density of towns. The Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta are the main focal points for high-density living, a high level of industrialisation, a large number of relatively high-density towns and close economic links between the towns. The major task is a combination of urban expansion and urban renewal that will allow these urban areas to absorb a larger population in an effective and efficient manner (http://www.accci.com.au/urbdev.htm, 2004).

Some of the difficulties with this strategy are as follows: ƾ China currently has a total of 18,800 established towns, for which the average population is 8,000. Although it is desirable, for at least some of these towns, to plan infrastructure development that would be consistent with a population of 20,000 by the year 2020 (slightly more than 5 per cent growth per annum), the task of choosing the ones with the greatest potential is certain to be difficult.

ƾ Further development for the currently high-density urban areas is largely an administrative task. Most of the cities and towns in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are already adjacent to each other. Some form of local government amalgamation is likely to be necessary in order to achieve economies of scale in urban services and infrastructure for these areas.

ƾ The regional-centre approach, in comparison, conveys the Chinese tradition for local area identity that existed for more than 2,000 years. It is likely to facilitate the selection of towns with the greatest potential for rapid growth and it would distribute the development of the western provinces on a more even basis (http://www.accci.com.au/urbdev.htm, 2004).

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3. Image data processing and methodology

This chapter describes the main methodology used in this thesis, including the background of the relative technology, the image data processing and the main output for this study.

3.1. Introduction of the development of Satellite RS Technology

3.1.1. Landsat The Landsat programme is the oldest Earth Observation programme. The series consists of 7 man- made satellites and it started in 1972 with the Landsat-1 satellite carrying the MSS multispectral sensor. After 1982, the Thematic Mapper (TM) replaced the MSS sensor. Both MSS and TM are whisk- broom scanners. Landsat 5 was launched in March 1984 and in April 1999 Landsat-7 was launched was carrying the ETM+ scanner (see Table 3-1) (Bakker, 2001).

3.1.2. Spot Spot I was launched on Feb. 1986 and since then it has been transmitting high quality imagery of the earth back to ground stationsand it has been in a near polar circular orbit, it has 10m panchromatic pixel size off nadir viewing capacity, stereo-capability and ability to commission imagery for specific areas and therefore we can say SPOT has characteristics which should be a boon to the cartographic community. There are different cartographic applications for SPOT images for example topographic map inspection, map revision and compilation and generation of digital elevation data. Image quality and geometric accuracy of SPOT data are essential elements in cartographic applications.

SPOT data has been available since 1986. We should consider that mapping from SPOT is not simply a matter of tracing off detail from the imagery into the map and the geometry of the new image is both complex and dynamic. The SPOT HRV sensor has an array of 600 charged couple device (CCD) sensors which sample reflected radiation every few milli-seconds to create a digital image swath 10 m. long and 60 Km. wide. Each swath has a perspective but off nadir view and a complete image is built up swath by swath while the satellite rotates around its three axes. SPOT data are recorded by two push-broom scanners abroad the satellite. These scanners can operate in two separate modes: multi spectral (ms) or panchromatic (pan) with 20m and 10 m. spatial resolution respectively and it should be noted that MS images provide relatively high spectral contrasts while the PAN images have much more subtle contrasts and trade off between them should be taken. Also SPOT sensors can record either vertical or oblique image data and the oblique data can be corrected to produce rectified images. SPOT has different processing levels for different applications. The most basic level is ISA, corrected for sensor radiometric calibration but with no geometric correction. Level 1B data is additionally corrected for known geometric distortions including earth rotation, earth curvature, and sensor viewing angle and satellite attitude variations. Level 2 is rectified for a map projection system using ground control points and it does not take into account terrain relief distortions and level S is rectified to a reference scene for multidate studies. There are also some auxiliary data including scene information,

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sensor data and ephemeris data. There are limiting factors in SPOT data acquisition e.g. clouds, mist, dust... make it difficult to obtain data when and where we want and the lack of ease in identification requires more ground effort (http://www.spotimage.fr, 2004).

Nowadays, there is much concern to use SPOT Satellite data in topographic mapping especially for those areas where these data are the best solution (like flat desert area with a few features). To do so we should seriously consider to those factors that play some roles in effective use of SPOT data in topographic mapping.

3.1.3. Aster ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) is an imaging instrument that is flying on Terra, a satellite launched in December 1999 as part of NASA's Earth Observ- ing System (EOS). ASTER is a cooperative effort between NASA and Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC). It is used to obtain detailed maps of land surface temperature, emissivity, reflectance and elevation. The EOS platforms are part of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, whose goal is to obtain a better understanding of the interactions between the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and atmosphere (http://terra.nasa.gov, 2003). The ASTER instrument consists of three separate instrument subsystems: the Visible and Near Infrared (VNIR), the Shortwave Infrared (SWIR), and the Thermal Infrared (TIR). Each subsystem operates in a different spectral region, has its own telescope(s), and is built by a different Japanese company. The ASTER Science Team is composed of members from the United States and Japan, as well as from France and Australia (http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov, 2004). The AS- TER instrument can be used to monitor urban changes and there have been already many practices of this application.

Satellite remote sensing has revolutionized the process of monitoring and measuring urban land use and urban form dynamics. The routine collection of imagery for most of the Earth’s land areas by satellites provides an invaluable historical record covering three10 decades. This revolutionary development makes it possible to conduct urban land use analyses in most regions of the world for this time period. Satellite remote sensing offers a tremendous advantage in studying urban areas, as it provides recurrent and consistent observations over a large geographic area, reveals explicit patterns of land use (Schneider etal, 2003). In the past 30 years, the technology has developed very fast with more and more countries began to launch their own relevant satellites. Today, we can get a mass of remote sensing images and apply them in many different fields.

3.2. Description of the three images To analyze the spatial-temporal changes of the urban area in Tianjin from 1993 to 2003, remote sensing images covering the same area (see Table 3-1) were obtained from the image library of ITC and Chinese land surveying and planning institute to do the study. Table 3-1: The source images

Platform Sensor mode Spatial Resolution Amount Year Landsat-5 (TM) Multi Spectral 30m 1 1993 SPOT Pan+XS 10m 5 2000 Aster Multi Spectral 15m 2 2003

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In this thesis, three remote sensing images used to extract the urban area and exhibit the urban physical growth. Interestingly, the images were generated just by the three foregoing platforms. The image in 1993 was Lansat-5 image with a Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor (see Figure 3-1 a). The Thematic Mapper (TM) is an advanced, multispectral scanning, Earth resources sensor designed to achieve higher image resolution, sharper spectral separation, improved geometric fidelity and greater radiometric accuracy and resolution than the MSS sensor. The images in 2000 were Spot images with a HRV sensor (see Figure 3-1 b). They were acquired by SPOT Earth observation satellites. The information in a SPOT image gives an objective, reliable picture of the Earth’s surface. Both accurate and all-encompassing, a single SPOT image covers a surface area of 3,600 km². In this research, the study area covers 5 single images with 1: 30000 scale and 10m resolution. The image in 2003 was Aster image with a VNIR sensor (see Figure 3-1 c). Aster is experimental instrument and allows imaging the Earth surface in 14 spectral bands from visible to thermal infrared with spatial resolution from 90 up to 15 m. In this research, the study area covers 2 single images with 15m resolution.

a b c Figure 3-1 the available image data

3.3. Image processing work flow The steps of image processing in this paper are shown as Figure3-2. The Erdas 8.6 and ArcGIS 3.3 software are used for image processing.

3.4. Geometric correction of the images

3.4.1. Introduction to geometric correction In remote sensing systems, the image of a stationary grid on earth is not perfectly reproduced by the sensor. Instead, the geometric characteristics of the scene change as a function of geodetic and intrin- sic properties of the imagery system, such as satellite orbit, position, attitude, and scan angle. The results from these imperfections contribute to the overall Geometric Distortion of the image, and are the essential motivation behind the modelling of Geometric Correction algorithms.

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Landsat TM, Spot and Aster Images of Raster Format in Erdas 8.6 (Year 1993, 2000, 2003) and ArcGIS 3.3

Georeference images to one coordinate system

Define the boundary of the study area in

Land cover classification mainly using Visual Interpretation (Year 1993, 2000, 2003)

Land cover maps (Year 1993, 2000, 2003)

Post-classification change detection (Year 1993-2000, 2000-2003)

Land-cover change maps (Year 1993-2000, 2000-2003)

Figure 3-2 Flow chart of image processing

3.4.2. Steps of geometric correction The 'warp', as the Geometric Correction process is also called in some literature, is divided into three steps. They are Polynomial Model, Coordinate Transformation and Resampling.

Resampling is the final stage of the warp. After the coordinate transformation, pixels are pointed to new locations, but their new DN values are yet to be determined. Pixels used as Ground Control Points will be assigned the same DN values of the reference pixels, because they were used as points during the polynomial fit derivation, and so they generate exact (integer) solutions. For all other pixels, the new calculated indexes are not necessarily integer values. In fact, their new locations may fall between the pixels of the reference image. Therefore, their corresponding DN values must be interpo- lated amongst the values of the neighboring pixels.

Although, there is not an ideal way to resample an image, the three interpolation algorithms most commonly used are: Nearest Neighbour, Bilinear and Cubic convolution. In this thesis, to correct the distortions in different images, some well-distributed GCP (Ground Control Points) were selected from the 2000 Spot image to georeference the other two images. Resampling is done before the pro-

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cedure of classification, visual interpretation, and change detection. In the out-put map the method of nearest neighbour method is selected to resample all data. After resample, all images are in the same coordinate system.

3.5. Definition of the boundary of the study area. The exact boundary is guided by the data availability. There are two important reasons for the definition of the final boundary here: One is that the three satellite images were not recorded at the same time by the same satellite sensors so that they do not cover exactly the same area, this is visible on the Figure 3-1; another is that the spatial scope of the area should correspond with the statistic scope of the socio-economic data. For example, the population data of Dongli district implies all the people living in this district namely includes people living Figure 3-3: The boundary of the study area both in the city proper (part of it locates in this district) and in other towns and villages of this district. Since the life style of the villagers in near suburb of big cities is very similar as city in China, the villages can be taken as actually urbanized area. This indicates that the study area should not cover too many exurbs; otherwise the socio-economic data will be very difficult to correspond with urban land in study area.

At last the defined area is a sub-image cut from the original image (see Figure 3-3). It covers 1759.10 square kilometres and includes 13 districts of Tianjin city, namely new 4 districts, 6 Central Districts and 3 coastal districts. This area contains most of the urban area including city proper, New Seaside Region and many towns etc.

3.6. Land cover classification To image the urban growth in Tianjin, land cover classification should be done first. It is necessary to know some fundamental of image classification.

3.6.1. Introduction to image classification Image classification is the process of extracting thematic data from satellite imagery. A thematic map is an informational representation of an image that shows the spatial distribution of a particular theme. Themes can be as diversified as their areas of interest. In other words, image classification is the process of the identification of features using digital records (Campbell, 1996). The overall objective is to automatically categorize all pixels in an image into land cover classes or themes. It involves the analysis of multi-spectral data and to determine the land cover identity of each pixel in an image (Wu, 1998, p.30).

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There are two different processes in image classification procedure: spectral pattern and spatial pattern recognition. The spectral pattern recognition process determines the land cover value to each pixel based on the spectral radiance observed on the image. In contrast, the spatial pattern recognition processes classify the land use/cover based on the geometric shapes, sizes, textures, and patterns of pixels present on the image (Wu, 1998, p.30). Supervised classification belongs to the spectral pattern and visual interpretation belongs to the latter (see Appendix 1).

Supervised classification algorithms rely on user-defined training regions that represent pure samples of a particular class (such as water). Several different types of supervised classification algorithms exist, but the major types are minimum distance, parallelpiped, and maximum likelihood. Minimum distance algorithms calculate a mean value in spectral space for each training region, and then compare each image pixel value to these means. The image pixel is assigned to whatever class mean it is closest in value to. The parallelpiped algorithm constructs a class volume in data space to further con- strain the identification of data points as a given class. Maximum likelihood algorithms assume a Gaussian distribution of pixel values within each training class and tend to be somewhat more accurate in regions of high surficial variability. Image pixels that fall within some standard deviation of the training class mean are assigned to that class.

In unsupervised classification, any individual pixel is compared to each discrete clusters to see which one it is closest to. A map of all pixels in the image, classified as to which cluster each pixel is most likely to belong, is produced (in black and white or more commonly in colors assigned to each cluster). This then must be interpreted by the user as to what the color patterns may mean in terms of classes, etc. that are actually present in the real world scene; this requires some knowledge of the scene's feature /class /material content from general experience or personal familiarity with the area imaged. In supervised classification the interpreter knows beforehand what classes, etc. are present and where each is in one or more locations within the scene. These are located on the image, areas containing examples of the class are circumscribed (making them training sites), and the statistical analysis is performed on the multiband data for each such class. Instead of clusters then, one has class groupings with appropriate discriminant functions that distinguish each (it is possible that more than one class will have similar spectral values but unlikely when more than 3 bands are used because different classes/materials seldom have similar responses over a wide range of wavelengths). All pixels in the image lying outside training sites are then compared with the class discriminants, with each being assigned to the class it is closest to - this makes a map of established classes (with a few pixels usually remaining unknown) which can be reasonably accurate (but some classes present may not have been set up; or some pixels are misclassified. In an unsupervised classification, the objective is to group multiband spectral response patterns into clusters that are statistically separable. Thus, a small range of digital numbers (DNs) for, say 3 bands, can establish one cluster that is set apart from a specified range combination for another cluster (and so forth). Separation will depend on the parame- ters we choose to differentiate. The image classification process can be summarized in 3 steps (Figure 3-4, http://aria.arizona.edu/courses/tutorials/class/html/class.html)

(1) Feature Extraction: This is an optional step on the classification process which serves only as a low level pre-processing of the image to reduce its spectral, or spatial, dimensionality. It can be ac- complished by using any type of spatial filters or spectral transforms to reduce the data and/or en-

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hance its multispectral features, or even by simply selecting a subset of bands. In this stage, the multispectral image is transformed into a feature image.

(2) Training of samples: In this step, pixels from the image are extracted to train the classifier to recognize patterns which help differentiate the classes. Based on these patterns, the classifier creates discriminant functions to assign each pixel to a class in the feature space. Supervised Training: it assumes some pre-determined knowledge about the spatial distribution of the classes on the image. The training points for each site are selected prior to the application of discriminant functions in the K-D feature space. Themes are known at the time that the classes are labelled. Classes are labelled before clustering.

During the process of training the pixels, the classes are separated using classification algorithms. These algorithms can be distinguished into two different groups: parametric and non-parametric methods.

(3) Labelling: In this final stage of the image classification process, the discriminant functions are used to label all the pixels in the entire feature image. If the training of the pixels was supervised, then a previous knowledge of the classes spatial distribution allows the labelling of classes to be carried out upon the application of the discriminant functions to the feature space.

Figure 3-4 the image classification process Resource: http://aria.arizona.edu/courses/tutorials/class/html/classtypep1.html

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3.6.2. Image classification in this thesis To monitor the urban growth, the supervised classification and visual interpretation were done deriving land cover information from the Landsat TM, Spot and Aster images in the scale of region level. Depending on the application, band combinations other than true or false colour may be used. This kind of band combination called pseudo-natural colour composites (Figures 3-5). The images were separately composite into a pseudo image to make a further supervised classification and visual interpretation. In different images, different band combinations are used to get the best result of a pseudo colour image. The purpose of composition is to get ready for visual interpretation that is going to extract urban area from the image.

a: Pseudo colour image Landsat TM (1993) b: Natural Colour image Spot (2000)

c: Pseudo image Aster (2003) Figure 3-5 Colour images of RS

The supervised classification was tried before visual interpretation. In this thesis, the process of supervised image classification includes two steps: Taking training pixels and assigning the land cover value to each pixel. Furthermore, method of Maximum likelihood is adopted in the classification. Maximum likelihood (ML) classifier considers not only the cluster centre but also its shape, size and orientation. This method has the added advantage of weighting such that image pixels are less likely to be classified as covers with low probability of occurrence in the scene. Maximum likelihood supervised classification is used for regions that have good ground truth data available.

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Before take training pixels, one sample containing the land-cover subclasses is defined. The land cover sub-classes, which are going to be classified, are decided according to the reflection characteristics and the appearance of the surface features on the pseudo colour image (see Table 3-3). Although urban land cover related to urban activities only, however, the sub-class “built-up area” here includes the built-up area related to rural activities like cluster of farmer’s houses. It is difficult to recognize the urban objects on the images by the shape and size except for the large ones like airports (Polle, 1993). The sub-class of road here is referred to the highways and main roads that link the cities. The local knowledge of the study area and the existing land-use maps of city proper (1993, 2002) can help to identify the different land cover and taking training pixels on the image.

Table 3-3 Appearance features of the pixels on the pseudo colour image Land Land cover Feature descrip- Feature descrip- Feature descrip- cover sub-class tion of TM image tion of Spot image tion of Aster im- class age Urban Built-up land Purple, Dark purple Dark purple, Gray cyan, Bright area clusters Offwhite offwhite Construction Bright white, near the Light purple Bright white site built-up area Offwhite Road Linear shapes, white Linear shapes, white Linear shapes, Bright or purple or purple white, Dark cyan or dark brown Non- Cultivated Dark green Green Red, Cyan or lark urban land Bare soil Light or Bright purple Light pink red Forest Bright green colour, Dark green red Green Bank of White, along or sur- Light offwhite, Bright offwhite, river ,lake and rounded by the water along or surrounded along or surrounded body pool by the water body by the water body Water Lake and pool Blue, Dark blue Dark blue, almost Dark blue, some al- body black ,Dark blue most black River Blue, with linear Dark blue, almost Dark blue, almost shapes black, with linear black, with linear shapes shapes Sea Dark blue Blue, Dark blue Blue, Bright blue Saltern Dark blue, almost Mainly dark blue, Blue, some dark blue black some almost black

Each image is classified into three classes: urban, non-urban, water body. The result of supervised classification is shown as Figure 3-6, 3-7, 3-8. Method of Maximum likelihood is adopted in the classification.

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Figure 3-6 Land cover map by supervised classification (1993)

Figure 3-7 Land cover map by supervised classification (2000)

Figure 3-8 Land cover map by supervised classification (2003) From the figure 3-6, the city proper and coastal districts are clearly visual, but most of the middle area between the two parts is defined into urban area also. Comparing with relative planar drawings, it is not the case. Because of the low spatial resolution and not good sensitivity of the sensor mode, this is the best one generated by supervised classification after many times of tries. The similar result oc-

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curred in figure 3-8, the main cause of it is the original image consists of two images and they are produced with several-month interval. This makes the color vision of the same class is different. At last, the result of Aster image is the worst of the three images of supervised classification. The figure 3-7 shows the supervised classification result of Spot image is the best. Undoubtedly, the high resolution and natural color vision are very helpful to get a precise supervised classification.

3.6.3. Visual interpretation Based on the reflection characteristics, such as colours, sizes, textures and shapes of surface features on the pseudo colour image, the image is visually interpreted through the supports of the local knowledge of the operator. Figure 3-9 shows the procedure of land cover classification by visual interpretation.

The minimum mapping unit of classification object is 2 hectares; it covers a square area about 5 pixels by 5 pixels in TM image, 14 pixels by 14 pixels in Spot image and 10 pixels by 10 pixels in Aster image. Classification is generated through some GIS operations including screen digitising, polygoniza- tion of segment map, attribute data inputting and rasterizing polygon map (Figures 3-11). The area of urban calculated from the results of visual interpretation is listed in Table 3-5. Due to the Spot image does not cover the south part of Dagang district, the urban area can not be gotten to do analysis. Furthermore, comparing the Landsat TM image with Aster image can see little physical growth, namely there is few new urban areas emerge during the past ten years. Here the thesis skips over the urban area change in this part.

Figure 3-9: Flow chart of the visual interpretation procedure (Wu, 1998)

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3-11 a: Urban area of 1993

3-11 b: Urban area of 2000

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3-11 c: Urban area of 2003 Figure 3-11: Urban area in Tianjin (results of visual interpretation)

Ta- ble 3-5: Area of urban with the method of Visual Interpretation in the study area

Year 1993 2000 2003 Urban area (ha) 57969 74223 93530 Relative urban growth 1.00 1.28 1.61 Note: the area of urban in 1993 is set to 1 to show the relative urban expansion.

3.6.4. Verification of Classification Accuracy The accuracy of any classification must be assessed prior to use in scientific analysis because no classification is complete. Here “accuracy” means the level of agreement between labels assigned by the classifier and the class allocations on the ground collected by the user as test data. Accuracy assessment involves the collection of ground truth data for the classified scene. This is done by establishing a number of test pixels within the image for which the actual ground cover is determined by field inspection, use of aerial photographs, or use of some other dataset. An overall classification accuracy is then determined by dividing the number of test pixels correctly classified by the number of total test pixels. Due to the limitations on my fieldwork, there was no opportunity to collect ground control points to testify the real land cover of the land surface in the study area. So no test data were available to compare the classification results of the visual interpretation and supervised classification.

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3.6.5. Concluding remarks on the comparison of visual interpretation and supervised classification As far as the image classification methods are concerned, the general view is that visual interpretation can produce more accurate result. In this research, this point is reflected on the following: Firstly, the accuracy of supervised classification is impacted by the image resolution deeply. The respective resolution of the different images is Spot10m> Aster15m> TM 30m and correspondingly the accuracy of the supervised classification result is Spot>Aster >TM. Secondly, the sensitivity of the sensor affects the accuracy of supervised classification result. The pixels implying different classes maybe have the same spectral value. One sample is some roads which is constructing within the built-up area have the absolute same spectral feature as some bare soils. Thirdly, supervised classification is still influenced inevitably by classifier’s judgement of what different spectral feature implies, especially on pseudo colour images. Lastly, some other factors such as cloud on the image will bring effecting on the result. Due to the aspects mentioned above, the accuracy of supervised classification needs improving. In the land cover maps by supervised classification of this research, some agrarian land surfaces are classified into the category of urban land and it is obvious wrong if the operator has some basic local knowledge about the study area. But there is another appearance that the supervised classification result of Spot image is much more satisfying than other two. This implies whether the image has good resolution and natural colour or not will determine the accuracy of supervised classification to a strong extent.

On the other hand, visual interpretation is truly time consuming and labour- intensive. Supervised classification can spare much time and labour.

3.7. Urban area change detection of the cities in the study area Recording land cover change over time is perhaps one of the most important applications of digital remote sensing data. For example, the conversion of non-built up area to built-up area, conversion of rural to urban land cover can be detected using a temporal comparison of spatial change determined from satellite or airborne data. The value of utilizing remote sensing data for change detection studies is limited only by the imagination of the investigators and potential users.

3.7.1. Introduction to change detection Digital change detection methods have been divided broadly into either pre-classification by spectral change detection or post-classification change detection methods (Nelson, 1983 and Singh, 1989). In this thesis, only method of post-classification can be used to discover the spatial-temporal change of the urban expansion because the sensor modes of the three images are very different. In post- classification change detection two images from different dates are independently classified and labelled. The area of change is then extracted through the direct comparison of the classification results (Howarth and Wickware, 1981). The advantage of post-classification change detection associated with the analysis of images acquired at different times of year or different sensors. The main disadvantage of the post-classification approach is the high dependency of the land cover change results on the individual classification accuracies. Spectral change detection techniques rely on the principle that land cover changes result in persistent changes in the spectral signature of the affected land surface. These techniques involve the transformation of two original images to a new single-band or multi-band is highlighted. The spectral change

37 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

data must be fully processed by other analytic methods, such as a classifier, to produce a labelled land-cover change product.

3.7.2. Post classification change detection This is the most obvious method of change detection, which requires the comparison of independently produced classified images. Software of Arcview3.2 is used in the post change detection. The result of the visual interpretation of two different times is overlaid to view the urban expansion and to calculate the urban expansion quantitatively. In this study, the results of visual interpretation of the land-cover map in 1993, 2000and 2003 are used to produce change maps (see Figure 3-12).

The urban expansion areas are calculated by using the overlay function of GIS, the result of the urban expansion from 1993 to 2000 and 2000-2003 are shown in Table 3-6.

3-12 a: 1993-2000

38 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

3-12 b: 2000-2003 Figure 3-12 Urban area changes by post-classification

Table 3-6 The area of urban growth

Period 1993-2000 2000-2003 1993-2003 New urban land (ha) 16254 19307 35561

3.8. Summary In this chapter, techniques of remote sensing and GIS are implemented to detect the spatial-temporal urban growth. The method of visual interpretation and supervised classification derived the information of the land-cover classes of each image successfully and the post-classification revealed the spatial-temporal urban changes in the same area. The physical changing patterns also can be seen from the changing maps of the study area.

Three types of remote sensing images are used to be the main data source to monitor the temporal- spatial urban expansion of the Tianjin city proper and extended urban region and to derive the urban area by method of visual interpretation. There are big gaps between each other on the spatial resolution and the colour representation. The Spot image has the highest resolution of and natural colour representation so that it is the easiest one to do the judgement about land cover. Conversely, the Land- sat TM image is the most difficult one. Due to the high spatial resolution of Spot image, the main road network including the railway line is classified accurately. But some minor ways are classified as urban in total.

39 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

4. Urban growth in Tianjin:

To make a comprehensive study of the spatial-temporal change of urban growth in Tianjin from 1993 to 2003 and assess the local urban policy, an analytical perspective has to be chosen. This chapter first describes what has occurred on urban growth. The change includes two main parts: social economic change and physical change of urban area. Then the chapter analyzes the temporal growth of both social-economic and physical changes in the same study period from the perspective of district level, transportation influence, form character and urban land use efficiency respectively. Lastly, this chapter reviews the master plan and local urban policy of Tianjin city and provides a qualitative assessment on the local urban physical development policy.

4.1. Urban growth in Tianjin from the socio-economic perspective During the past decade, great changes have occurred in many socio-economic fields of Tianjin city. Here several aspects will be focused on: GDP/Per capita GDP, Population, Foreign Direct Investment and economic structure.

4.1.1. Socio-economic growth of metropolitan The national economy of Tianjin witnessed rapid development, economic strength gained strong improvement. The table 4-1 shows the development of different socio-economic factors from 1993-2003. Table 4-1 the socio-economic development from 1993-2003 Year 1993 2000 2003 Population (million) 8.86 9.12 9.24 GDP (billion Yuan) 53.61 163.94 238.70 Per capita GDP (Yuan) 6075 17993 25833 FDI (million US $) 541.2 2560 3513 Urban area (ha) 57969 74223 93530 Source: Tianjin Fifty Years 1949-1999; Tianjin statistic Yearbook 2000, 2003. All were compiled by Tianjin Municipal Statistical Bureau (TMSB). Due to the “one child” policy, the rate of natural growth of population is low in China, especially in big cities. So the ingoing of people from many other small-size cities and rural area is an important part of population growth in Tianjin. Figure 4-1 shows the population size kept smooth growing in Tianjin from 1993-2003.

Figure 4-2 shows the strong and stable development of the GDP/ Per capita GDP from 1993-2003.The gross domestic product (GDP) got 185.09 billion yuan of the value-added in 2003 comparing in 1993, and the GDP in 2003 is more than fourfold that in 1993. The per capita GDP reached 25833 Yuan in 2003, also more than 4 times of that in 1993.

40 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

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Figure 4-3 reveals that the three industrial sectors have made all-round development. At the end of 2002, the primary industry reached 84 billion yuan, and its share in GDP was 4.1 percent. The secondary industry developed rapidly and became the major factor to push forward the growth of economy, and its share in GDP was 48.8 percent. The tertiary industry continued to develop and its share in GDP was 47.1 percent.

41 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

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Any urban construction needs investment. For example, today almost every city founds its Economic Technology Developing Zone (ETDZ) in China, and the same primary purpose of them is absorbing investment to promote local economic development. Now, there are 56 national ETDZs and their important aim is to get a mass of FDI to make its ETDZ a growth pole for urban development. Tianjin ETDZ, which locates in Tanggu district is one of them. Figure 4-4 reveals the change of amount of FDI from 1993-2003.

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Figure 4-4 Change of FDI from 1993-2003 Source: Tianjin Fifty Years 1949-1999; Tianjin statistic Yearbook 2000, 2003. All were compiled by Tianjin Municipal Statistical Bureau (TMSB).

From the description above, we can find that the increase extent of the socio-economic factor differs from each other. FDI is the one with the strongest development from 1993-2003, the amount of it in 2003 is more than 6 times of that in 1993. GDP/ Per capita GDP almost kept the same speed in the past decade. Although the increase speeds of them are lower than FDI, they are much higher than that of population. The urban land development is intervenient. Figure 4-5 shows the difference between the growth extents of the five aspects.

42 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

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4.1.2. Socio-economic growth in each district of study area Since the study area contains 13 districts and each district has its different situation, this thesis tries to reveal the urban growth from the perspective of district level. Among the districts, Nankai, Heping, Hongqiao, Hedong, Hexi and Hebei make up of the oldest part of the metropolitan. In this thesis, they are called “6 Central Districts” (local appellation) as a whole. So the 13 districts are separate into 6 Central Districts, Beichen District, Xiqing District, Dongli District, Jinnan District (these 4 districts are called the 4 New Districts in local appellation), Tanggu District, Dagang District and Hangu Dis- trict (these 3 districts are called the 3 Coastal Districts in local appellation). The population of study area takes 65% proportion of the total population which statistical range covers all the districts, counties and towns of Tianjin city. Figure 4-6 shows the population growth of whole study area. The increase annual rate is 4.21ă from 1993-2000 and 3.09ă from 2000-2003.

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Figure 4-6 Population growth in study area from 1993-2003 Figure 4-7 shows the population growth of each district. All the districts made smooth growth since 1993. More than 60% population gather in 6 central districts and now the increase speed is in a low level. Because of the even and smooth change of the population per district, the GDP and per capita GDP almost kept synchronal increase. Figure 4-8, 4-9 show the increase of GDP/per capita GDP of each district.

43 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

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Figure 4-8 GDP growth per district Figure 4-9 Per capita GDP growth per district Source: Tianjin Fifty Years 1949-1999; Tianjin statistic Yearbook 2000, 2003. All were compiled by Tianjin Municipal Statistical Bureau (TMSB).

The 6 Central Districts have the biggest-size GDP but the lowest per capita GDP due to they have the most population among all the districts. Dagang district and Tanggu District keep ahead of other districts on both GDP growth and per capita GDP growth except 6 Central Districts. This implies that the ETDZ and Tariff-free Zone promote the economic development strongly because they are both in Tanggu district. For Dagang district, the big/mid-size SOE (state-owned enterprise) of petrochemical field is the key role which leads the local economic development. This is its traditional advantage. Due to the lack of FDI statistical data per district, the change of it can not be visual in this thesis, it is really a pity. However, FDI is an important driver promoting urban growth and this is confirmed in the socio-economic development of the whole city. According to the local report on FDI, the coastal districts which own Tianjin ETDZ Tianjin Tariff-free Zone and Tianjin new harbor have absorbed more than 60% FDI of the whole city every year after 2000(appendix 4, 5). This corresponds with the

44 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

economic development and urban physical growth of Tanggu district where Tianjin ETDZ and Tian- jin Tariff-free Zone locate.

4.2. Urban growth in Tianjin from the physical change perspective The further analysis could be done basing on the image processing that has been described in chapter 3. Results of analysis of the satellite-derived maps illustrate the emergence of several significant patterns during the period 1993̢2003. The figure 4-10 shows the urban physical growth of study area. Furthermore, the amount and its share of urban area of each district deriving from the figure 3-11 are shown in this section. Basing on the result of each district, the three parts of study area also can be visualized to realize their respective role in the actual urban physical growth.

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4.2.1. District level analysis of urban growth The new urban land can be gotten from the urban area images of different years. Figure 4-11 shows the new urban area distribution in study area.

Except 6 central districts, the built-up area of other districts grew from 415.9 sq km to 762.68 sq km, nearly two times its 1993 size. The districts developed at even faster rates, increasing from a few square kilometres urbanized in 1993 to between 32 km2 and 142 km2 per local government unit in 2003. These rates and spatial patterns are significant because they indicate a trend toward more dispersed urban development, away from the city core. Much of this development is outside of the third ring road. Furthermore, the annual increase rate and the percent of each district presents different change (see figure 4-12, 4-13, 4-14 and 4-15).

45 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Figure 4-11 the new urban area from 1993-2003

A remarkable change is the proportion of 6 central districts declines from 28% in 1993 to 19% in 2003. This implies that most of the urban physical development happened elsewhere. Since they locate in the core area of the city proper, they have been already developed in the past and no space maintains for them to expand urban area now. The main work they can do in the future should be improving the land use level, such as enhancing the economic efficiency of land use, renewal of old city area, improving environment etc. Another good thing is the proportion of their population in the total of study area also declines from 62.71% in 1993 to 62.15% in 2003 and the population density declines from 22304 persons/sq km to 21387 persons/sq km; this trend will be helpful to improve the land use in the 6 central districts.

46 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Figure 4-12 Amount of urban area per district (sq km)

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47 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

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Figure 4-15 the share of urban area per district From the above, the change of the 6 Central Districts, the 4 New Districts and the 3 Coastal Districts can be imaged (see figure 4-16). The 4 New Districts increased most quickly and they contribute the biggest part in the total urban physical growth. Another noticeable thing is the 3 Coastal Districts. Al- though all of them made a strong increase on the size of urban area, the percent is almost unaltered, even slightly declined.

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Table 4-2 (appendix 6) shows the amount of new urban area of each district and the relative proportion of total new area, as well as shows count of three parts. The most proportion of the urban physical growth occurred in 4 districts namely Dongli, Xiqing, Beichen and Tanggu from 1993-2003. The new urban area that belongs to them makes up 72% of the total. Figure 4-17 reveals the annual increase rate of each district during the period of 1993-2000, 2000-2003. Except 6 Central Districts, there is a same trend that the annual rate from 2000-2003 is much higher than from 1993-2000; especially the annual rate from 2000-2003 of Beichen district even is three times of that from 1993-2000. So, this part makes us aware of that the main urban physical growth appears in the 4 New Districts, they are ahead of other districts on almost every aspect including the amount, proportion, annual rate. Contrarily, everything of 6 Central Districts is on the lowest position relating to the urban physical growth.

48 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Table 4-2 Count of new urban area per district District 1993-2000 2000-2003 1993-2003 New urban Proportion New urban Proportion New urban Proportion area (sq km) (%) area (sq km) (%) area (sq km) (%) Beichen 20.08 12.35 42.11 21.81 62.19 17.49 Xiqing 34.01 20.92 30.93 16.02 64.94 18.26 6 Central District 10.73 6.60 1.1 0.57 11.83 3.33 Dongli 22.88 14.08 45.52 23.58 68.4 19.23 Jinnan 19.21 11.82 24.28 12.58 43.49 12.23 Tanggu 31.73 19.52 29.64 15.35 61.37 17.26 Dagang 19.78 12.17 11.58 6.00 31.36 8.82 Hangu 4.12 2.53 7.91 4.10 12.03 3.38 Total 162.54 100.00 193.07 100.00 355.61 100.00 4 New Districts 96.18 59.17 142.84 73.98 239.02 67.21 6 Central District 10.73 6.60 1.1 0.57 11.83 3.33 3 Coastal Districts 55.63 34.23 49.13 25.45 104.76 29.46

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4-17 c Figure 4-17 Annual rate of the urban area increase per district

4.2.2. Analysis of urban growth from the perspective of transportation Transportation is an important factor which can affect the urban expansion process. There are 12 main roads radiate from the centre of the city proper. Most of them connect with the second ring road directly. Here author focuses on the zone that is situated in 500m depth of each side of them (see figure 4-18).

In Chinese standard of transportation planning, the distance between two main roads is defined from 800m-1200m when planning the road net in a new urban area to be developed, and the distance be-

50 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

tween secondary road and main road should be 400m-600m. So, the block which is within about 500m depth from the main road side can be considered it is impacted by the road deeply. Table 4-3 shows the result of the count of the relative new urban area. The amount of the new urban land which is along these 12 roads and the third ring road is respectively 46.97 square kilometre in 1993-2000 and 45.55 square kilometre in 2000-2003, and takes up 28.90% and 23.59% of the total new urban area. So, one-fourth new urban area emerges in this zone from 1993-2003.

Table 4-3 Count of new urban area along main roads Road 1993-2000 2000-2003 1993-2003 New urban Proportion New urban Proportion New urban Proportion area (sq km) (%) area (sq km) (%) area (sq km) (%) Third Ring Road 14.67 9.03 13.59 7.04 28.26 7.95 Road_1 1.69 1.04 1.22 0.63 2.91 0.82 Road_2 1.26 0.78 1.14 0.59 2.40 0.68 Road_3 2.57 1.58 1.40 0.72 3.97 1.12 Road_4 3.53 2.17 1.38 0.71 4.91 1.38 Road_5 1.52 0.94 1.75 0.91 3.28 0.92 Road_6 1.53 0.94 4.07 2.11 5.61 1.58 Road_7 3.64 2.24 3.69 1.91 7.33 2.06 Road_8 1.12 0.69 3.70 1.92 4.82 1.36 Road_9 4.63 2.85 4.54 2.35 9.17 2.58 Road_10 5.44 3.34 3.30 1.71 8.73 2.46 Road_11 3.53 2.17 3.43 1.78 6.96 1.96 Road_12 1.84 1.13 2.34 1.21 4.18 1.18 Total 46.97 28.90 45.55 23.59 92.53 26.02 Note: the proportion here is the share of the total new urban area of study area.

Except the third ring road, there are most new urban area developed during 1993-2003 along the road 9, which connects the city proper and Tanggu city area. Road 10, 11 and road 7 also own relatively more new urban area among these main roads. Moreover, the least new urban area emerges in the zone along road 2 (see figure 4-19, 4-20). Road 5, 6, 8, 9, 12 are found that the amount of relative new urban area during the period 2000-2003 is more than period 1993-2000, but only road 6, 8 enhance their proportion in the total new urban area. This implies that much more new urban area emerge elsewhere from 2000-2003.

51 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Figure 4-18 the main roads

Pr opor t i on of t he new ur ban ar ea along each mai n r oad (1993-2003) Road_12 Road_11 Road_10 Road_9 Road_8 Road_7 road Road_6 Road_5 Road_4 Road_3 Road_2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Road_1 percent (%)

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52 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

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Here this study does not count the new urban area emerges along the 12 roads within the third ring road and core area of Tanggu, Dagang and Hangu District. In fact, a mass of new urban area was developed in these areas. If the zone enlarges to the 1000m depth of each side of these main roads, the proportion will increase greatly. This indicates that transportation is a positive factor promoting urban physical development for a certainty.

4.2.3. Form analysis of urban growth This section describes the character of urban growth from the perspective of physical form. Com- monly, the new urban area does not appear evenly in different directions from the urban core. There always exist some main directions for the urban physical growth. This thesis divided study area into 8 zones according to the orientation from the city proper (see figure 4-21). As a coincidence, there are 3-4 main roads crossing in each zone. Figure 4-22, 4-23 show the growth of new urban area in different zones.

53 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Figure 4-21 the zone partition according to orientation

Figure 4-22 amount of new urban area per zone Quite a number of conversion from non-urban area to urban area occurred within the third ring road in the both two periods and the proportion in the total new urban area reaches 19% (see table 4-4). If adding the growth around Tanggu/ Dagang/ Hangu city area, the proportion will reach 45.5%. This indicates that the rounding expansion of the old urban area still plays an important role. Moreover, the east zone and the south zone in fact consist of the middle region between city proper and Tanggu/ Da- gang district and about one third urban growth happened here. The urban growth on north orientation is more than that on west orientation slightly.

54 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Figure 4-23 proportion in total new urban area per zone

Table 4-4 Count of new urban area per zone on different orientation

zone 1993-2000 2000-2003 1993-2003 New urban Proportion New urban Proportion New urban Proportion area (sq km) (%) area (sq km) (%) area (sq km) (%) within ring road 41.63 25.61 26.22 13.58 67.85 19.07 North zone 13.79 8.48 28.92 14.97 42.71 12.01 West zone 17.57 10.81 16.49 8.54 34.06 9.58 East zone 22.71 13.97 56.47 29.25 79.18 22.27 South zone 15.64 9.62 22.24 11.52 37.88 10.65 Around Tanggu 27.66 17.02 24.03 12.45 51.69 14.54 Around Dagang 19.42 11.96 10.79 5.59 30.21 8.50 Around Hangu 4.12 2.53 7.91 4.10 12.03 3.38 Total 162.54 100.00 193.07 100.00 355.61 100.00

Figure 4-24, 4-25 show two types of the abstract of the urban physical form. They are obtained by extracting the main character of the allocation of the new urban area from 1993-2003.

55 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Figure 4-24 spatial pattern of urban growth-1

Figure 4-25 spatial pattern of urban growth-2

56 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

One type is that as a whole, the urban area presents radial shape from the city proper and three seg- ments respectively around Tanggu city area, Dagang city area and Hangu city area. It emphasizes the urban expansion towards different orientations and the relationship with outer space. Another is that the urban area presents three rounding shape respectively encircling the city proper/ Tanggu city area/ Dagang city area and the link between each other. The three parts consist of a triangle. Interestingly, there exists remarkable urban growth in the central place of the triangle and three linear urban developments from this spot to each part. This type just likes an atom and emphasizes the interrelationship between different parts of the urban area.

From the centre-periphery model, four distinct stages are recognised defined according to the percentage which industry contributes to the Gross National Product: (1) Pre-industrial, 0-10 percent; (2) Transitional, 10-25 percent; (3) Industrial, 25-50 percent; (4) Post-industrial, declining (Herbert and Thomas, 1990). According to this theory, Tianjin is in the transitional status from industrial stage to post-industrial stage (see figure 4-26).

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Relatively, there is another model from the perspective of the relationship between the city- distribution and the process of development, namely the three stage “industrial” model. This model also offers insight into the dynamic spatial interrelationships between cities and their hinterlands (Herbert and Thomas, 1990). The types of urban regions with stylised functional inter-relationships are shown in figure 4-27, 4-28. Although this model is much more suitable for a more macro area than the study area in this thesis, it still can provide a reference to understand the urban system in Tianjin.

From the figure 4-27 a, the urban growth of Tianjin witnesses an exhibition according with the model of industrial stage from the perspective of physical change, namely the new urban land emerges to enlarge the city proper along the radial roads. Furthermore, the figure 4-27 b confirms that Tianjin already has some character of post-industrial stage. There are strong connections between city proper and Tanggu city area/ Dagang city area. However, the relationship between Tanggu and Dagang city area is less appreciable. At present the interaction between each other of these three parts is becoming the most critical factor which determines the future urban physical form of Tianjin city. The indica- tions are that the change of urban area in Tianjin corresponds with the transition from urbanized area to city region and the pattern of urban physical growth reflects this transition.

57 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

a: industrial stage – urbanized area

b: post-industrial stage-city region c: conurbation, metropolitan complex, urban field Figure 4-27 types of urban regions with stylised functional inter-relationships

One major goal of this study is to understand the spatial patterns of urban development. This thesis brings forward the urban growth corridor; here the corridors are defined mainly by extracting the extending form of the new urban area jointing the transportation influence. The relationships with outer space and between each inner parts of the urban area are considered in this pattern. The initial line of the corridor was defined by the track of the new urban lands which trend to joint each other to present linearity (Figure 4-28). Results of the analysis show that the amount of urban land has increased in all seven corridors, with a faster increase speed after 2000 (Figure 4-29 and table 4-5, 4-6). Overall, the trends indicate that the majority of growth occurred along corridor1, 2, in the next place, occurred along corridor 3, 4. But the proportion of the later is much less than the former. Here the former is defined as main corridors, and the others are minor ones. The characteristics of the two main corridors are discussed in the following sections.

58 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Figure 4-28 indicative image of the corridors

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Corridor_1: Tanggu-city proper-Beijing As a part of the famous Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Region, as well as Rounding Bohai Sea Economy Zone, Tianjin is the most important harbor serving for North China at all times, especially for Beijing, the capital of the country. There are great deals of cargo transmitted between Beijing and Tianjin harbor everyday. Expressway, railway and other main roads were built linking them (see table 4-7). Cor- ridor 1 contains the largest amount of both urban land and land growth of any of the corridors, primarily due to the presence of three district-level EDZ: Beichen Development Zone, Tanggu Development

59 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Zone and Industrial Zone which locates at the middle/lower reaches of Haihe River. All these zones are associated with the industry transmitted from city proper. Secondly, Tianjin ETDZ, Tianjin Tariff- free Zone and Tianjin new harbour all are situated in this corridor; they absorbed more than 50% FDI of Tianjin city and a great number of infrastructure investment since their foundation. This promotes the strong development of urban construction and then the improvement of the infrastructure stimu- lates estate development and so on. With the deepening of the regional cooperation, the relationship between Beijing and Tianjin will get much closer and this corridor could be foreseen increasing strong.

Table 4-5 Count of urban area per corridor Corridor 1993 2000 2003 urban area Proportion urban area Proportion urban area Proportion (sq km) (%) (sq km) (%) (sq km) (%) corridor_1 97.04 16.74 133.77 18.02 192.15 20.54 corridor_2 72.35 12.48 112.27 15.13 145.15 15.52 corridor_3 8.31 1.43 13.39 1.80 18.33 1.96 corridor_4 4.04 0.70 10.86 1.46 16.20 1.73 corridor_5 9.07 1.56 12.96 1.75 16.47 1.76 corridor_6 13.61 2.35 19.44 2.62 26.75 2.86 corridor_7 10.26 1.77 17.34 2.34 24.59 2.63 total 214.68 37.03 320.03 43.12 439.64 47.01 Note: the proportion here is the share of the total urban area of study area.

Table 4-6 Count of new urban area per corridor corridor 1993-2000 2000-2003 1993-2003 New urban Proportion New urban Proportion New urban Proportion area (sq km) (%) area (sq km) (%) area (sq km) (%) corridor_1 36.73 22.60 58.38 30.24 95.11 26.75 corridor_2 39.92 24.56 32.88 17.03 72.8 20.47 corridor_3 5.08 3.13 4.94 2.56 10.02 2.82 corridor_4 6.82 4.20 5.34 2.77 12.16 3.42 corridor_5 3.89 2.39 3.51 1.82 7.4 2.08 corridor_6 5.83 3.59 7.31 3.79 13.14 3.70 corridor_7 7.08 4.36 7.25 3.76 14.33 4.03 total 105.35 64.81 119.61 61.95 224.96 63.26 Note: the proportion here is the share of the total new urban area of study area.

Corridor_2: Dagang-city proper-Wuqing district town Both urban land and land growth of this corridor follow Corridor_1 closely. It contains ETDZ of Xiqing district and the Oceanic-Petrochemical Technology Park in Dagang district. Dagang district has many SOE about Oceanic-Petrochemical and Petrochemical. Although the reform of SOE does not be determined succeed until now, the fast economic growth ensures the strong need of Petro-

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chemical and makes the SOEs here still keep energy today. In fact, this corridor could be taken as a good complementarity of Corridor_1.

The other corridors include the following: Corridor_3 and Corridor_4: SW to Jinghai County, Corri- dor_5: NE to Ninghe county town, Corridor_6: city proper-Xianshuigu Town-Tanggu and Corridor_7: city proper-Xianshuigu Town-Dagang.

Table 4-7 transportation lines along each corridor Corridor District passed through Transportation lines along the corridor Expressway Main road Railway Tanggu-Dongli-Beichen- Wuqing, Jing-Jin-Tang; Jing-Jin; Jin-Tang Jing-Shan corridor_1 North to Beijing Jin-Bin Dagang-Jinnan-Xiqing-Beichen, Jin-Gang; Jin-Zi; Li-Gang corridor_2 North to Wuqing District Jing-Fu corridor_3 Xiqing, to Southwest Jing-Hu Jin-Lai

corridor_4 Xiqing, to Southwest Jin-Yang; Jin-Jing Jin-Hu

corridor_5 Dongli-Beichen, to Northeast Jin-Han; Jin-Yu City proper-Xianshuigu Town- Jin-Jin; Jin-Gu corridor_6 Tanggu city area City proper-Xianshuigu Town- Jin-Jin; Xian-Qi corridor_7 Dagang city area

4.3. Urban land use efficiency Basing on the understanding of the socio-economic development and urban physical growth, a further analysis can be done integrating the two aspects. As known, the amount of urban land conversion relative to unit increase in population or economic growth (GDP) sheds light on urban land-use efficien- cies. Two indices were developed for this purpose: urban land-use change per additional person (a standard measure used in China) and urban land-use change per additional unit of GDP. High urban land-use efficiency signifies that a small amount of land is converted per unit increase in population or GDP. Conversely, low land-use efficiency indicates that the urban land requirement per person or unit of economic activity is high (Schneider etal, 2002).

Table 4-8 shows the result about urban land use efficiency of each district and the whole study area. Distinct information is for the average; the conversion to urban land-use per additional person gets much lower but to urban land-use per additional unit of GDP gets slight higher.

Comparing the district results to the average by population, Xiqing and Jinnan present greater than average ratios from 1993 to 2000 and their indexes are 3-4 times of the average ratios. Moreover, Hangu exhibits greater than average ratios from 2000 to 2003. In other words, 1.79 ha of land was converted for urban uses for each additional person from 1993 to 2000 in Hangu, as compared to the study area mean of 1.01 ha per person. This figure jumps to 7.91 during the period 2000–2003, indicating that far more land was converted to urban uses per person than average.

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On the other hand, 6 Central Districts and Dagang have urban lower than average land conversion to population increment ratios during the two periods, indicating efficient non-urban to urban land conversion despite increasing populations. In the case of 6 Central Districts, it is clear from Table 4-2, figure 4-12 and 4-13 that land conversion has been minimal. For Tanggu, population growth has been substantial, but has not required significant land conversion from 1993-2000, and it reaches the average by population from 2000-2003.

Table 4-8 ratio of change in urban land to change in population and gross domestic product Change land/change pop Change land/change GDP District (ha/person) (m2/ Yuan) 1993-2000 2000-2003 1993-2000 2000-2003 Beichen 3.09 2.11 0.0048 0.0110 Xiqing 3.91 -3.44 0.0082 0.0083 6 Central Districts 0.13 0.01 0.0014 0.0001 Dongli 2.49 0.78 0.0065 0.0148 Jinnan 3.20 0.43 0.0064 0.0108 Tanggu 1.41 0.35 0.0102 0.0032 Dagang 0.91 0.07 0.0053 0.0026 Hangu 1.79 7.91 0.0040 0.0184 Total study area 1.01 0.35 0.0053 0.0054

Finally, it is important to note the inefficient land conversion to population change ratios of Xiqing in the 2000–2003 period. Although land has been converted uses in these districts, the number of urban inhabitants has declined. Expansion in this area is clearly not population driven, but is instead attrib- utable to others.

In terms of changing levels of GDP, urban land-use efficiency per GDP is high, namely that for every one Yuan increase in GDP, a small quantity of land is converted to urban use, especially in the 6 Cen- tral Districts, Dagang district and Tanggu district. Low rates of land conversion relative to GDP in- crements reflect rapid economic growth. This growth is based partially on efficiency gains that have increasingly resulted in more effective use of existing urban infrastructure, and enabled construction of more land-conserving urban features, such as high-rise buildings (Schneider etal, 2002). So, basically the urban land use efficiency is good although the urban land requirement per additional person is a little high.

4.4. Master plan and local urban policy With the more emphasis from citizens and urban government, master plan has become a key factor which influences the urban growth in Chinese cities. Furthermore, most of cities’ governments have made their clear strategy on local development including urban growth.

4.4.1. Urban master planning Two Master Plan of Tianjin city have been made since 1978, in 1989 and in 1995.

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The Master Plan of Tianjin City (1984-2000) was finished in 1985 and approved by the State Council in 1986. From then on it guided the development of Tianjin city until the later master plan was approved and started to implement. It summarized the designated function of Tianjin: “the comprehen- sively economic centre of North China, a modern seaport, and an industrial base of high-technology”. In order to avoid continued expansion of the central urban area and control the size of city, it sug- gested developing several satellite towns surrounding the central urban area. Finally the urban system consists of the central urban area, the coastal districts, and satellite industrial town in suburb. The principle of city development was “to renewal the central urban area, move the industrial districts to the east of city, emphasis the development of the coastal districts and encourage the growth of the satellite industrial towns surrounding the central urban area”, which was visualized as “picking up two parts-- the central urban area and the coastal districts with a shoulder pole” (see Figure 4-30).

Figure 4-30: Master Plan (1984-2000) The preparation of the second time master plan of Tianjin city was started in 1993 and the plan was finished at the end of 1996 (see Appendix 7). On 23 July 1999, it was approved by the State Council. The planning horizon is from 1995 to 2010. The plan summarized the designated function of Tianjin as: “the economic centre of China's Bohai rim, a modern port city and a major economic centre in Northern China”. Based on the urban system planned in the Master Plan of Tianjin City (1984-2000), the new plan defined the principle of city development in the future: “to renewal the central urban area con- tinuously and improve its environment; to emphasize the development of the coastal districts, especially the Tianjin Port, the Tianjin Economic and Technological Zone, the Tariff-free Zone as well as the built-up area of Tanggu to make the coastal districts a new pole of economic development of Tian- jin city and an important part to implement the strategy of “moving the industrial to the east of Tianjin city”. Furthermore, speed up the growth of the satellite industrial towns in suburb for avoiding the expansion of the central urban area”.

4.4.2. Local urban policy As there has never been any special document of description on how the Tianjin city’s physical form should develop, the main urban policy of the local government can be concluded from the master plan of the city. The main reason is the perspective of urban development in the plan has been approved by country and endued with force adeffect.

There were some important common grounds in the two master plans: control the expansion of city proper, adjust its function and improve its environment; move industry to eastern area of city proper; develop the coastal districts strongly. In the master plan (1995-2010), a new notion was brought for-

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ward: peripheral urban conglomeration in zone nearby city proper, the word “peripheral” here means peri-city proper, not relating to the city area in coastal districts. According to the plan, there are 8 places of this kind (see figure 4-31, 4-32, appendix 8) and most of them is planned to be developed basing on existing town.

Synthetically, the local urban policy on the physical development of the city includes these basic aspects as following: (1) To city proper: limit its land expansion not exceed third ring road, focus its main function on residence, commerce, culture and other service industries; (2) To industry: move most of industries away from city proper and concentrate them on the eastern zone of the city; (3) To coastal districts: emphasize their development especially on Tanggu District, focus its function on high-tech industry and port. Furthermore, the other two districts’ main function is petrochemical industry; (4) Encourage developing peripheral urban conglomeration in zone nearby city proper; (5) To the form of the urban system: interdict the coupling of the urban land of different parts, hold the green open space between each other, keep each part relatively independent.

Figure 4-31 the urban area of official expectation in 2010 Note: the 8 peripheral urban conglomeration: ķ Shuangjie; ĸ Yangliuqing; Ĺ Dasi; ĺ Xianshuigu; ĻJunliangcheng; ļ Shuanggang; Ľ Xinli; ľ Xiaodian.

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Figure 4-32 indicative image of urban physical development policy

4.4.3. Comparing policies and actual urban physical growth This section discusses the relationship between actual urban physical growth and the local policy on urban physical development. In the foregoing description about the local policy, the future urban physical growth is expected to obey 5 main arrangements set by local government; here the thesis tries to analyze the reality and the expectation from the perspective of each these 5 aspects. Figure 4-33 shows the actual urban physical growth from 1993-2003 and the expectant development from 1995- 2010 defined by local government.

(1) The local urban development policy emphasizes to limit the urban area of the city proper within third ring road and tries to retain some natural open space between the urban area fringe and the third ring road However, the real situation is that about one fifth of urban growth happened within the third ring road and the urban area almost fills the zone. It is noteworthy that the new urban development from 1993 to 2003 contains little green open space, and so there is an urgent need to protect the remaining open space of this policy is to be achieved. Furthermore, it is the last hope to improve the natural environment of Tianjin city proper.

(2) Moving most of industries away from city proper and concentrate them on the eastern zone of the city is the main spatial policy reacted to economic activity. Here the eastern zone mainly includes 3 Coastal Districts, as well as Dongli district, Jinnan district. Due to the same statistic standard, this sec-

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tion chooses the amount change of enterprise and the growth of industrial product per district or zone in 1999-2002 to judge whether the designed movement actually happened. Although it can not reflect all about the change of the spatial allocation of the industrial land since 1995, to some extent it can confirm if the policy makes effective on the real allocation of the industrial land use.

Figure 4-33 actual urban physical growth and expectation of local urban development

policy

Under this policy, several district-level ETDZs were founded. From the amount of industrial enterprise (figure 4-34, 4-35), it is clear that the amount of enterprise and industrial product declined in 6 Central Districts and increased in Beichen& Xiqing and eastern zone. Basically, it is difficult to determine whether the “transmitting to east” policy is on the designed way because the amount and product of industry in the west zone namely Beichen& Xiqing also made strong growth during the same period. But it is certain that the industrial enterprise is moved out of city proper and this also can be confirmed partially by the fast growth of almost all the district-level ETDZs, such as Shuangjie and Dasi, where Beichen district ETDZ and Xiqing district ETDZ respectively locate. Since the lack of the statistic data, it is unaware of the relevant economic efficiency, investment and urban construction.

(3) A very important policy emphasizes the development of the 3 Coastal Districts, especially on Tanggu District. In fact, Tanggu district is the main reason for the favourable performance of Tianjin ETDZ. The average index of Tianjin ETDZ always keeps the front rank among all the national ETDZs since its foundation in authoritative research reports such as blue book of city competition. Due to its fast development and strong push, Tianjin’s economy holds some competitive power. In the foreseeable future, further development of Tianjin ETDZ, Tianjin TFZ, Tianjin new harbour and other devel-

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opment zones in 3 Coastal Districts is envisaged. In the past decade, the real situation corresponds with the policy. Although the amount of urban physical growth is less than the 4 New Districts, the urban land use efficiency is much better than that of 4 New Districts basically, especially after 2000.

Figure 4-34 amount of industrial enterprise Source: Tianjin statistic Yearbook 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002. All were compiled by Tianjin Municipal Statistical Bureau (TMSB).

Figure 4-35 growth of industrial product Note: The data of 1993 is set to 1 to show the growth.

(4) Almost all the peripheral urban conglomerations show actual growth. Because they are developed on the base of an original town, they have quite a good condition to get further development. For example, Shuangjie is situated along the corridor_1, it is benefited by the predominant transportation; Yangliuqing has the biggest motor-making SOE namely Chinese First Auto Company a preferential industry in the state manufacture policy; Xianshuigu lies at the centre place of the city proper-Tanggu- Dagang triangle region, it is close to the three parts which consist of the main urban area and there are main roads to connect each part. Even it is possible for Xianshuigu to become the future city centre if the three parts inosculate inescapably at last. A noteworthy case is the zone on the northeast of Tianjin Binhai International Airport. It was originally not planned as peripheral urban conglomeration but due

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to its good location for development, the plan had to be modified to meet the actual need. The biggest new urban development site emerged here in 2000-2003.

Generally, the places chosen to form peripheral urban conglomeration are suitable for development, and strong urban growth occurred in these places.

(5) The last important item is defined for the form of the urban system. Official policy wants to interdict the coupling of the urban area of different parts, hold the green open space between each other and keep each part relatively independent. This policy implies most of other towns which were not decided to be developed as peripheral urban conglomeration lose opportunity on urban growth. But the evidence shows it is not the case. From the foregoing figures, tables, at least 40% urban growth happened in the places not closing to any main urban area (city proper, Tanggu city area, Dagang city area and Hangu city area). In other word, quite a lot of urban growth scatters in various orientation and sites and is occurring in the numerous towns and villages. This suggests weak regulation and control urban periphery. Furthermore, with the increasing consciousness of self-protection on land-use right and belongings of common people, it will become more and more difficult to implement the policy forcibly. This is the biggest challenge to the relevant policy.

4.5. Summary The socio-economic field of Tianjin has made rapid development, economic strength gained strong improvement. Population keeps a smooth increase while the GDP/per capita GDP grow fast. The For- eign Direct Investment also keeps a high- level amount and with its strong push, Tianjin ETDZ and Tianjin TFZ have made large expansion. But it is hard to perfectly combine the physical change with the socio-economic statistical data published by the government which is classified according to the division of municipality boundary. For example, the statistical scope of Tanggu district should be as a whole to get the data of population, GDP/per capita GDP etc, but so do only some items of the original data and other items separate the data into several parts such as Tanggu, Tianjin ETDZ, Tianjin TFZ, even Tianjin harbour. This makes big puzzle to obtain the data corresponding with the same spatial scope.

The urban physical growth of Tianjin is strongly suggesting that the city is in the transitional status from “industrial” stage to “post-industrial” stage. The exhibition of the urban physical growth in the past decade tallies the description of spatial form and city-hinterland relationships of relative stage in the model.

Urban physical growth is primarily occurring in the middle zone between city proper and Tanggu city area/ Dagang city area. Before 2000, development was more balanced and multidirectional in orientation. It contradicts official physical plans for the study area, which advocate controlling the physical development except a few spots in the middle zone, and especially keeping interval between each main urban development spot along the line from city proper to Tanggu city area.

Urban physical growth has been and continues to be radial in orientation, extending outward from the urban core of city proper along main roads. The main cause is the influence of transportation. Among the twelve main roads from urban core of city proper, the road 1, 2, 3, 4 lead to west and road 5, 6, 7

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lead to north. The others all lead to east and south, namely to Tanggu district and Dagang district. This is an important driver which results in one third new urban area emerges in the middle zone. Fur- thermore, growth corridor

There are growth corridors gotten by extraction of the character of the allocation of the new urban land since 1993 extending the sites of the most land conversion to urban uses. They define a frame- work of the spatial pattern of the urban area in a foreseen future. Especially, the corridor Tanggu-city proper-Beijing will be an important element effecting the regional development of Beijing-Tianjin- Tangshan region. In study area, it is the most crucial factor which leads the evolvement process of urban physical form.

In terms of local policy, five crucial aspects were extracted from the master plan to reflect the policy expectation of urban development. Generally, the policy affected the urban physical growth deeply such as the development of 3 Coastal Districts and peripheral urban conglomeration. On the other side, the tendency of the growth occurred in city proper and the middle zone contradicts the relevant policy and suggests that now the policy needs some adjustment to follow the actual situation which involves fast change.

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5. Conclusions and recommendations

This chapter presents a summary of the major findings of this research.

5.1. Conclusion

5.1.1. Urban growth The main findings of the urban growth can be summarized as follows:

(1) The urban physical growth of Tianjin is strongly suggesting that the city is in the transitional status from “industrial” stage to “post-industrial” stage. The exhibition of the urban physical growth in the past decade tallies the description of spatial form and city-hinterland relationships of relative stage in the model.

(2) Coastal Districts will play more and more important pole with rapid development and better land use efficiency in Tianjin metropolitan under the policy favour. The interaction between them and city proper is the decisive element on the urban physical form in the future. In another word, how to deal with the fast growth of some places that have not been planned in the middle zone is the most crucial thing to form a fitting urban system in the future.

(3) Urban physical growth in the Tianjin extended urban region is primarily occurring in the middle zone between city proper and Tanggu city area/ Dagang city area. Before 2000, development was more balanced and multidirectional in orientation. Notably, the current pattern of growth directly contradicts official physical plans for the study area, which advocate controlling the physical development except a few spots in the middle zone, and especially keeping interval between each main urban development spot along the line from city proper to Tanggu city area. Another noticeable finding is that the new urban area within the third ring road makes up about 20% of the contemporary total new urban area, and contradicts the local urban policy for this area. The official expectation is to retain plenty of land between urban fringe and the third ring road for constructing open green space. Now urban land almost fills the zone within third ring road.

(4) Urban physical growth has been and continues to be radial in orientation, extending outward from the urban core of city proper along main roads. The main cause is the influence of transportation. Among the twelve main roads from urban core of city proper, the road 1, 2, 3, 4 lead to west and road 5, 6, 7 lead to north. The others all lead to east and south, namely to Tanggu district and Dagang district. This is an important driver which results in one third new urban area emerges in the middle zone. (5) There are two main corridors and five minor corridors extending the sites of the most land conversion to urban uses. These provide a clue to the spatial pattern of the urban area in the foreseeable future. Especially, the corridor Tanggu-city proper-Beijing will be an important element effecting the regional development of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. In the study area, it is the most crucial factor which leads the evolvement process of urban physical form.

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(6) Three modes of the urban physical growth can be found. First is the rounding growth of the main existing urban area such as city proper, Tanggu city area and Dagang city area. About 45% urban growth occurred in the zone encircling them. It is all around expansion. Then is linearly-outspread growth, it basically implies the urban development along each important transportation line including spread towards outer space. Last is connective growth namely the amalgamation of several close urban areas. In the middle area, the linearly-outspread growth along main roads absorbs our attention easily, but the connective growth also plays noteworthy role because there are much higher density of punctuate urban area than in other zones and they trend to joint each other. In fact, the urban physical growth occurred between city proper and Tanggu city area/Dagang city area also can be considered an amalgamation tendency of the different parts.

(7) Some towns in the study area are important anchors of urban physical growth. However, other key drivers of development have joined these towns to shape peri-urban structure. In particular, main roads connecting these towns to Tianjin city proper (and recently to each other) drive physical growth, and create corridors alongside them. Xianshuigu Town is the best example. The airport encourages physical development so strongly that the official plan has to be modified to meet the need of investors. Moreover, the attraction caused by fast development of some industrial zone such as Tianjin ETDZ and Tianjin Tariff-free Zone has played a considerable role in driving the connective development from city proper to Tanggu district and Dagang district.

5.1.2. The local urban policy and its effectiveness on urban growth Here the local policy mainly means the city’s master plan, which set by the local government. In this thesis, only the master plan in 1995 was discussed and compared with the real development of the city. Although the master plan is not fully implemented, there is evidence that it has had some influence on Tianjin’s growth.

The local urban policy contains the official expectation on development of city proper, coastal districts, peripheral urban conglomeration, the physical form of urban system and the spatial allocation of industrial land use. There is clear blue print of each aspect respectively from the expectation of local government.

The analysis in chapter 4 shows that the master plan has a great influence to the city’s development, especially to the aspects of spatial structure, development orientation. It can lead to a great change of the city’s development, for example, the fast development of peripheral urban conglomeration in the study period. But there is also big gap between the actual development tendency and the policy expectation on some aspects such as the physical form of urban system. The connective growth pattern suggests that many of the policies for spatial development are under pressure and may in time prove to be unrealistic.

5.1.3. The use of remote sensing image Remote sensing image provides a useful method to do this research. They cover enough large area and this is very useful to have a general view of the urban expansion at a regional level. They also cover the whole urban system of Tianjin city and make this research relatively easy to carry out. Further- more, the SPOT is very useful due to its high spatial resolution and natural colour representation. On the other hand, there also have some negative disturbances of the images due to the different resolu-

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tion, appearance of each image caused by different satellite platform, for example, the same surface has different spectral response due to their different sensor. To eliminate this kind of disturbance ut- most, it is better to select the same type image in the same season to do research or to build interpretation keys season-by-season and region-by-region. The spatial resolution is another crucial factor. Low spatial resolution will make it very hard to do more detailed classification of the land-cover types just like the Landsat TM image in this thesis. Anyway, it is enough for the use of monitoring the urban growth in a city scale.

Two methods of classification were adopted in the image data processing of this study, they are visual-interpretation and supervised classification. Generally speaking, visual-interpretation can produce a more accurate classification results compared with supervised classification. It can classify the land- cover types not only by the spectral characteristics but also can do classification based on shapes, colours, textures, and positions of the land surface. With the local knowledge of the interpreter, the classification result may be more accurate. The process of human interpretation also enables some gener- alization to be made where as supervised classification classifies all pixels and may lead to “noisy” results with many small clusters of pixels and great spatial variation. But main disadvantage is that human interpretation is labour-intensive and time-consuming. Supervised classification is less accurate compared with the classification result of visual interpretation. Classification results are mainly by the spectral characteristic the image. The advantage of this method is that with this method large amount of images cam be dealt in a relatively short time compared with the visual interpretation. It also needs less labour force.

Remote sensing provides an important and independent data source for monitoring the urban growth in a city scale. The technique of GIS and Remote sensing data interpretation and change detection make the urban planners detect the changes quantitatively and qualitatively. For effective monitoring it is however advisable to have additional local knowledge and where possible, GIS data sets that provide a possibility for increased control of the data extraction.

5.2. Recommendations Basing on the main finding of the urban physical growth, some recommendations to Tianjin municipality about the future urban physical development are come into being.

ƾ The freight traffic in Tianjin kept fast increase since 1990, as well as the volume of freight handled in ports (appendix 9). Since the Tianjin harbour serve for the North China region, especially for Bei- jing, it could be considered that the transportation between Tianjin and Beijing will grow fast in the foreseen future. On the other hand, coastal districts will keep high development speed due to the local policy favourite. These two points indicate that the all kinds of the communication activities along the Tanggu-city proper-Beijing will get stronger and stronger. Basing on this, making a considerate transportation plan is a pressing task for Tianjin metropolitan today. An advanced traffic system should be formed including various transport way and enough affiliated infrastructure. On the other hand, to regulate the land use along the transportation lines is also very important. For example, now the light railway is constructing, it can stimulate the flourish of the estate along it and the municipality must be open-eyed on this. Otherwise, the connective growth will be more unmanageable.

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ƾ Enhance the integration of city proper, coastal districts and peripheral towns from both physical and socio-economic perspective. Strengthen the urban specialization and manufacturing agglomeration in the metropolitan. For example, focus the main function of city proper on residence, commerce, culture and other service industries; make each peripheral urban conglomeration has different pole industry and so on. Combining this aspect, enhance the regulation of the land expansion of each part. For example, in the area within the third ring road, we could regulate the land expansion with the growth of other city area such as absorb some population to the big residential zone developed in peripheral towns. Tianjin’s urban physical structure could be not the same Beijing’s if the integration deepens, it need not to develop many ring roads for the city proper under the suitable control of the urban land expansion. Otherwise the fourth ring road maybe appears quickly if just let it be. Further- more, the Wuqing district town should be taken as a more important part along the growth corridor Tanggu-Beijing. It will play relatively important pole in the growth on the North orientation to Beijing because of its good location.

ƾ Make clear plan aiming at different urban growth mode in different zone in Tianjin metropolitan. To the rounding growth, make controlling it for city proper; make planned and great expansion for coastal district; make suitable development for peripheral towns. To the linearly outspread growth, make relative controlling since there will present some disturbance between the daily activities of the people living along the lines and the transportation under the condition today in China. To the connective growth, since it is based on the rounding growth of the adjacent sites, making clear layout with more consideration of these sites is a comparatively good way at present.

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Appendix 1 Developed level of Tianjin

Appendix 2 Population and population density of Tianjin

Source: Tianjin Statistical Yearbook 2003, Compiled by Tianjin Municipal Statistical Bureau (TMSB).

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Appendix 3 Supervised and unsupervised classification

Appendix 4 Amount of the FDI in 2002 in Tianjin metropolitan

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Appendix 5 Proportion of coastal districts on main indicators

Appendix 6 Amount of the new urban area per district of two periods

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79 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Appendix 7 Mater plan (1995-2010) of the Tianjin municipality region

80 URBAN GROWTH IN TIANJIN, 1993-2003

Appendix 8 Mater plan (1995-2010) of the Tianjin city proper and peripheral urban conglomerations

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Appendix 9 The freight traffic in Tianjin from 1978-2002