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On a Morphogenesis of Opera Repertoire Programs as an Instance of Framing in Decision Making Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................. 4 1. Theory and literature on repertoire programming: a review .............................................................................................. 6 1.1 Evaluating the repertoire of performing and musical arts: indices of quality ....................................................................... 6 1.2 Managing the arts management in opera houses ................................................................................................................. 12 1.3 On creativity, innovation and their genesis ........................................................................................................................... 16 1.3.1 The struggle between economic and artistic logic ...................................................................................................... 16 1.3.2 A matter of narration .................................................................................................................................................... 18 1.3.3 On defining innovation ................................................................................................................................................. 19 1.3.4 Artification of businesses and managerialization of the arts ..................................................................................... 22 1.4 In a beginning: on a contagiontology ................................................................................................................................... 24 1.4.1 On tradition as transmission ........................................................................................................................................ 24 1.4.2 Tarde’s “contagiontology” of difference and repetition ............................................................................................ 25 1.4.3 On contagions beyond biology ..................................................................................................................................... 28 1.5 On the diagramming of a contagion theory .......................................................................................................................... 31 1.5.1 The spreading of affects ................................................................................................................................................ 31 1.5.2 Visualizing beyond representation ............................................................................................................................... 33 1.5.3. For a rationale of individual trajectories ................................................................................................................... 34 1.6 For a morphogenesis and a diagramming of opera repertoire programs ............................................................................ 38 1.6.1 An epistemology of problems for an ontology of processes ....................................................................................... 38 1.6.2 Population thinking, intensive thinking and topological thinking ............................................................................ 42 1.6.3 Towards a morphogenetic hypothesis about opera repertoire programs ................................................................ 45 2. Methods .............................................................................................................................................................................. 47 2.1 The data landscape ................................................................................................................................................................ 47 2.2 Descriptive statistics and statistical tests ............................................................................................................................... 47 3. Results ................................................................................................................................................................................ 51 3.1 Opera performances and titles performed (2004-2019) ........................................................................................................ 51 3.2 Descriptive statistics of opera performances and titles performed ....................................................................................... 52 1 3.3 Descriptive statistics of title performances ............................................................................................................................ 54 3.4 Descriptive statistics of title performances in Italy ............................................................................................................... 58 3.5 Mood’s test for title performances ......................................................................................................................................... 69 3.6 Intensive differences of title performances ........................................................................................................................... 71 4. Discussion ........................................................................................................................................................................... 75 4.1 Outliers in non-random sampling and non-independent samples ....................................................................................... 75 4.2 Mapping a distribution of frequencies .................................................................................................................................. 78 4.3 Invariance under transformation of opera repertoire programs .......................................................................................... 80 4.4 On structuring the randomness of opera title performances ................................................................................................ 81 4.5 On the virtuality of opera repertoire programs ..................................................................................................................... 84 4.6 On a design of framing in decision-making .......................................................................................................................... 87 5. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................................................... 91 References .............................................................................................................................................................................. 93 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................................................................................ 98 Opera Title Performances in Italy through Seasons 2004-2019 ................................................................................................ 98 2 3 Introduction In the introduction of my Managerial Decision Making course, I was struck by an apparently obvious step in the decision-making process: the choice framework. Framing of choices is needed to define any decision as such, thus it is not only the first step in decision-making and analysis, but it is also the most critical one. I am deeply interested in the sector of performing arts, specifically in cultural management, and I’ve always tried to learn as much as I can about the topic. During my researches, I came across the article “Measuring emotion through quality in symphony orchestras”, by Mafalda Gómez-Vega and Luis César Herrero-Prieto,1 that discusses the repertoire programming of symphonic orchestras from the supply standpoint of the quality, namely the artistic impact, of the repertoires, and became captivated by it. The article highlights the possibility of assessing an orchestra’s management decision-making by looking at its repertoire programming, and its relevance, with an eye to strategic cultural policies and to public and private funding of cultural products. By evaluating the programming of the artistic repertoire through the lens of decision analysis, and following the line of reasoning proposed for decision professionals,2 the aim is to create value in the spending of responsibility and authority made in the decision-making by decision makers. The significant interest of organizations, individuals and stakeholders has to be taken into account for the decisions to be deliberated. Moreover, risks and uncertainties must be faced, specifically what is known only in terms of probability and what is not known at all. Decision quality requires an early, actual and effective engagement of decision makers, stakeholders, and subject matter experts. Their engagement in that first, critical step of the choice framework is needed in order to actually and effectively satisfy all the different interests. Decision-making definitely appears to be a troublesome socio-technical process3 of complex envisaging in doubtful conditions of alternatives, consequences and objectives. In particular, in the framing of the decision-making of opera repertoire programming, I will look for aspects that imply knowledge whose relevance influences other