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Presentation Vienna 13-15 March 2018 Workshop on Cost Estimation and Cost Analysis of Nuclear Projects and Programmes Idaho National Laboratory, USA Nuclear in the Energy Mix Perspective of North Macedonia Anton Chaushevski Faculty of Electrical Eng.& IT, Sts Cyril and Methodius University - Skopje INL, September 30 – October 03, 2019 Content •Existing Power System (PS) •New production capacities candidates •Long term scenarios for Power System •Activities in energy planning Model for hourly operation of power plants Environmental impacts from fossil fuels technologies •Nuclear option for future development Current situation in Electric Power System •Import is 30% of electricity needs (2000-3000 GWh/year) • Base load from TPP on lignite (over 30 years old units in operation) • Domestic lignite with limited reserves (next 20 years) •Base load in critical status after 2030 •Needs for new base load production capacities •Small grid with Max. power needs 1500-2000 MW •Yearly energy needs 9000 GWh •The largest single generation unit is 220MW (thermal unit) •Challenges in new technology which is environmentally acceptable (REN in first period next 5-10 years) •Nuclear power is an energy option after 2030 •SMR as reasonable and acceptable investments for small country as a new nuclear beginner Existing power system and main companies Map of the grid •ELEM - power plants and private producers •MEPSO – national TSO •EVN and other distributions Урошевац Врање Србија Ново Косово Червена Могила Косово Скакавица Железара Куманово 1 К.Паланка Куманово Кратово М.Каменица Скопје1 Скопје 5 ТИРЗ ТетовоТеарце Бугарија Тетово 2 ТЕ ТО Куманово 2 Пробиштип Ѓ.Петров Скопје2 Рафинерија Тетово 1 ИЗ Неокази Бунарџик Делчево Југохром Скопје3 Кочани Скопје 4 Петровец О.Поле Штип Полог Св.Петка Велес Гостивар Штип1 Козјак Штип2 Топилница Вруток Самоков Велес2 Бучим Берово Централна Згрополци Радовиш рудник Бошков мост Осломеј Иловица Дуброво Шпиље Кавадарци Кичево Неготино Прилеп2 Градска Струмица1 Сушица Глобочица Прилеп3 Струмица2 Петрич Фени Тиквеш Неготино Прилеп1 Вaландово Сопотница Охрид Богданци Струга Гевгелија Битола 2 Охрид1 Ресен Битола1 Битола Елбасан Охрид2 Битола4 Б.Гнеотино Солун Битола3 Суводол Грција ХЕЦ 400 kV ДВ ТС 400/110 kV ВЕЦ 110 kV ДВ ТС 110/x kV Албанија ТЕЦ Лерин ТЕТО Состојба 2020 The structure of the Power system Wind Farms GENERATION SYSTEM CONSUMERS TSO ELEM Regulated consume with TPPs & HPPs M Large Ind. consumers IMPORT from Market E Independent Power Producers P CHP, CC,.... S Connection O Export to Market Distribution PV Companies, EVN Small HPP Supply structure in GWh for last years Regulating consumers and customers (7500-8000 GWh) Industrial consumers for 110 kV are not included (free on the market) (1000-1500 GWh) 2014 2015 2016 TPP 3507 3092 2699 Bitola 3317 2986 2672 Oslomej 190 106 27 CHP Energetika 0 0 1.3 HPP 958 1528 1490 Mavrovo 398 439 553 Crn Drim 326 529 586 Tikves 116 313 145 Treska 118 247 206 Wind Park 70 121 110 ELEM Total 4535 4741 4299 CHP TETO+Kogel 192 179 554 IMPORT 3072 2656 2191 REN (Substitice) 256 350 449 Small HPP 242 308 389 PV 14 22 24 Biomass 0 20 36 DEMAND 8055 7926 7493 Typical yearly and daily demand 1600 P (MW) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 30 December 2016 400 20 October 2016 200 06 August 2016 16 May 2016 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Existing iInstalled capacities Installed Power Yearly Available Generation P (MW) W (GWh) TPP coal 825 4800 TPP oil 210 1000 CHP gas 287 2000 HPP (Large&Small) 675 1545 Wind farm 37 120 PV 17 22 Biomass 6 18 TOTAL 2057 9470 Emission factors and environmental impacts from fossil fuel thermal power plants LIGNITE CO2 SO2 H2O N2 O2 Total Nm3/kg-Fuel 0.435 0.004 0.723 2.384 0.146 3.693 1400 kg / kg Fuel 0.855 0.012 0.581 2.981 0.209 4.637 kg/Nm3 Gasses 0.231 0.003 0.157 0.807 0.057 1.256 1200 CO2 (gr/kWh) g/kJ 0.111 0.002 0.075 0.387 0.027 0.602 1000 g/kWh 1249.0 16.9 848.6 4354.7 305.3 6774.5 800 600 OIL CO2 SO2 H2O N2 O2 Total 400 Nm3/kg-Fuel 1.587 0.014 0.336 8.634 0.530 11.101 200 kg / kg Fuel 3.117 0.040 0.270 10.793 0.757 14.976 kg/Nm3 Gasses 0.281 0.004 0.024 0.972 0.068 1.349 0 g/kJ 0.078 0.001 0.007 0.269 0.019 0.373 Lignite Oil Natural. Gas g/kWh 821.2 10.5 71.1 2843.1 199.3 3945.3 18 NATURAL GAS CO SO H O N O Total 2 2 2 2 2 16 Nm3/kg-Fuel 0.999 0.000 1.999 9.842 0.604 13.444 14 kg / kg Fuel 1.962 0.000 1.606 12.303 0.863 16.734 SO2 (gr/kWh) kg/Nm3 Gasses 0.146 0.000 0.119 0.915 0.064 1.245 12 g/kJ 0.051 0.000 0.041 0.317 0.022 0.431 10 g/kWh 331.1 0.0 271.0 2075.4 145.5 2823.0 8 6 4 2 0 Lignite Oil Natural. Gas Generation prices of electricity Thermal PP (coal), 55 Euro/MWh CC thermal PP (gas), 65 Euro/MWh Hydro Power (Run off, Storage), 20 Euro/MWh REN Small Hydro 45-120 Euro/MWh (Feed in tariff) Wind Power, 89 Euro/MWh (Feed in tariff) PV Solar, Market price + Add. Biomass 180 Euro/MWh (Feed in tariff) REN in 2016 Small HPP (80MW) 389 GWh Wind power (37MW) 110 GWh PV (18MW) 24 GWh Biomass (7MW) 36 GWh Operation Planning of Power Generation in the Power System MODELS for Planning of Power System • Long – term planning (year, few years, decades) New investments in power plants, National Strategy planning,... • Short term planning (in a day, week, …, year) Operation of existing power plants… Model for hourly operation of power plants in PS Optimization function -Total Operation Costs -minimum K T N T ∑∑ Kk (Pter (t)) ⋅ ∆t + ∑∑ Kn (Psys (t)) ⋅ ∆t ⇒ min k=1 t=1 n=1 t=1 Power balance between generation and consumption in each time interval according to the relation ∑ Pther (t) + ∑ Phyd (t) + ∑ PREN (t) + ∑ Psys (t) = Pload (t) K M R N k –Thermal power plant contracts (TPP & NPP) with Pter (t), m - Hydropower plants, each with power Phyd (t) n - Additional systems or interconnections REN – Renewable (Wind farms, PV and others) Other Constraints: • Water balance for HPP, • Energy production balance for TPP • Contracts for import/export • Planned outages Modelling thermal units Thermal Power Plants (TPP &NPP) Production costs depend on power output (CAP+Fuel+O&M) 2 K k (Pk,t ) = Pk,t ⋅ qk (Pk,t ) = Pk,t ⋅ (Ak + Bk ⋅ Pk,t + Ck ⋅ Pk,t ) K(P) = A ⋅ P + B ⋅ P 2 + C ⋅ P 3 Modelling Hydro Power units Hydro Power Plants Specific spent water per energy depend on turbine discharge and storage level 2 Pm,t Pm,t Pm,t Pm,t Q = ⋅ A + B ⋅ + C ⋅ neto neto m m neto m neto H m,t H m,t H m,t H m,t Electricity load representative tn ∑ P(ti ) ⋅ti P(t) ∆ t =1 ∆t W ( t) i Ptot = = P tn = − max P(t3 ) ∆t Pvar Ptot Pmin ∑ti P(t1) ti =1 P(t4 ) P(tn ) P P(t2 ) var In order to reduce the dimension of the problem , the Pmin ... number of time interval (T) can be smaller with different Ptot duration (appropriate to the demand) t1 t t t 2 3 4 t n Model possibilities Wide options of Generation planning ( long & short terms) Operating regime of HPP’s & TPP’s Flexible opportunity for interval’s dividing: months, weeks. days, hours (few,...,2,1) Balance of total & variable load Water balance for HPP’s reservoirs Electricity exchange (import, export) Existing power system of Macedonia Lignite TPP – 820 MW, 4500 GWh Bitola, Oslomej Gas TPP – 280 MW, 2000 GWh TE TO, Kogel, Energetika ELEM Oil TPP – 210 MW, 1200 GWh Negotino HYDRO – 580 MW, 1450 GWh DEMAND near 9000 GWh Domestic production around 6500 GWh Import (Gap) of 2500 GWh Basin Wannual [GWh] Wshare [%] 1 Mavrovo HPPs 488 33.66 2 Crn Drim HPPs 513 35.38 3 Treska HPPs 190 13.10 4 Crna HPPs 184 12.69 5 Small HPPs 75 5.17 Total 1450 100.00 Future projection of new power plants Lignite TPP – 300 MW, 2000 GWh 1 units x 300 MW Gas TPP – 500MW, 3000 GWh 2 units Nuclear – up to 1000 MW, 8000 GWh HYDRO – near 1000 MW, 2300 GWh Renewable (up to 400 GWh) Small HPP 60 MW Wind 150 MW PV 20 MW Basin Pinst. Wyear Investment MW GWh mil € Boskov Most Radika 68.2 117 70 Lukovo pole and HPP Crn Kamen Mavrovo 5 163 45 Galiste Crna river 193.5 264 200 Cebren Crna river 333 340 319 Spilje 2 Crn Drim 72 33 35 Gradec Vardar 54.6 252 157 Veles Vardar 93.0 300 251 10 HPPs in the Vardar valley Vardar 176.8 784 486 TOTAL 1032 2343 1563 Simulation of Scenario in hourly Casewith NPP in optimization of Scenario hourly Simulation Winter Week Winter Summer Week Summer 1000 1500 2000 2500 1000 1500 2000 2500 500 500 0 0 1 P(MW) 1 6 6 11 11 16 16 P(MW) 21 21 26 26 31 31 36 36 41 41 46 46 51 51 56 56 61 61 66 66 71 71 76 76 81 81 86 86 91 91 96 96 101 101 106 106 111 111 116 116 121 121 126 126 131 131 136 136 141 141 146 146 151 151 156 156 161 161 166 166 NUCLEAR Gas Import PUMP Hydro NUCLEAR Gas Import PUMP Hydro 1000 1000 Covering Covering thepeak demand 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 0 P (MW) 1 P (MW) 1 7 7 13 13 19 19 25 25 31 31 37 37 43 43 49 49 55 55 61 61 67 67 73 73 79 79 85 85 Conventional+ Reversible HPP Reversible Conventional+ HPP Conventional 91 91 97 97 103 103 109 109 115 115 121 121 127 127 133 133 139 139 145 145 151 151 157 157 163 163 Gradec Drim Crn CRNA Mavrovo Treska Gradec Crn Drim Crn CRNA Mavrovo Treska 1000 1200 1200 1000 200 400 600 800 200 400 600 800 0 0 1 1 170 177 339 P (MW) 353 508 529 6800 NPP Nuclear 677 705 P(MW) 846 881 6400 Coal+ Import 1015 1057 1184 1233 GWh 1353 1409 1522 1585 1691 GWh 1761 1860 1937 2029 2113 2198 2289 2367 2465 2536 2641 2705 2817 2874 2993 3043 option NPP and large NoNuclear base ofload Comparison thecovering 3169 3212 3345 3381 3521 3550 3697 3719 3873 3888 4049 4057 4225 4226 4401 4395 4577 4564 4753 4733 4929 4902 5105 5071 5281 5240 5457 5409 5633 5578 5809 5747 5985 5916 6161 6085 6337 6254 6513 6423 6689 6592 6865 6761 7041 6930 7217 7099 7393 7268 7569 7437 7745 7606 7921 7775 8097 7944 8273 8113 8449 8282 8625 8451 8620 CASE OF OPERATION OF THE POWER SYSTEM WITH WIND FARMS PLANNING IN A YEAR FOR 8760 HOURS Simulation of power generation units operation: • TPPs of: Pmin=870MW < P(t) < Pmax=1270MW • HPPs for average hydrology of: Pinst=628MW • Wind power plants of 150 MW with an annual production of 300 GWh.
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