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Analysis of Hail Damages and Temperature Series for Peninsular Spain

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Analysis of Hail Damages and Temperature Series for Peninsular Spain Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3415–3422, 2011 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/11/3415/2011/ Natural Hazards doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3415-2011 and Earth © Author(s) 2011. CC Attribution 3.0 License. System Sciences Analysis of hail damages and temperature series for peninsular Spain A. Saa Requejo1, R. Garc´ıa Moreno2, M. C. D´ıaz Alvarez1, F. Burgaz3, and M. Tarquis1 1CEIGRAM. E.T.S.I. Agronomos,´ Universidad Politecnica´ de Madrid, Spain 2Universida de Da Coruna,˜ Departamento de Ciencias Da Navegacion´ e Da Terra, Facultad de Ciencias, Coruna,˜ Spain 3Entidad Nacional de Seguros Agrarios (ENESA) Ministry of the Natural, Rural and Marine Environments, Madrid, Spain Received: 11 February 2011 – Revised: 12 June 2011 – Accepted: 19 October 2011 – Published: 22 December 2011 Abstract. Hail is a serious concern for agriculture on the 1 Introduction Iberian Peninsula. Hailstorms affect crop yield and/or qual- ity to a degree that depends on the crop species and the phe- Hail events represent an important natural disaster associated nological time. In Europe, Spain is one of the countries that with great economic losses in several regions, mainly in Eu- experience relatively high agricultural losses related to hail- rope. In Spain, the Combined Agrarian Insurance System storms. It is of high interest to study models that can support covers hail events for most types of crop losses. Insurance calculations of the probabilities of economic losses due to coverage of hail events provides a means of economic recov- hail damage and of the tendency over time for such losses. ery for most producers, mainly in the Mediterranean region, Some studies developed in France and the Netherdlands where the highest incidence of losses due to hailstorms is show that the summer mean temperature was highly corre- recorded (Llasat et al., 2009). In Spain, the indemnification lated with a yearly hail severity index developed from hail- for these losses reached 12.5 million euro in 2007. related parameters obtained for insurance purposes. Mean- Because of the nature of the hazards related to hail events, while, other studies in the USA point out that a highly sig- the State Agrarian Insurance Body (Entidad Nacional de Se- nificant correlation between both is not possible to find due guros Agrarios, ENESA), which coordinates and links ad- to high climatic variability. ministrative activities to guarantee the development of agrar- The aim of this work is to test the correlation between av- ian insurance in Spain, is interested in models that can sup- erage minimum temperatures and hail damage intensity over port further calculations of the probabilities of economic the Spanish Iberian Peninsula. With this purpose, correlation losses and of the tendency for such losses to occur over time. analyses on both variables were performed for the 47 Span- As mentioned by Lopez´ et al. (2007), the correlation of the ish provinces (as individuals and single set) and for all crops occurrence of hail events with climatic variables is a compli- and four individual crops: grapes, wheat, barley and winter cated problem because of the small area disturbed and be- grains. Suitable crop insurance data are available from 1981 cause of the short time associated with hail events. Thus, until 2007 and based on this period, temperature data were although economic losses related to hail can be very impor- obtained. tant, the information on the climatology associated with hail This study does not confirm the results previously obtained events is very limited. It must also be recognised that most of for France and the Netherlands that relate observed hail dam- the records of hailstorm events are made for insurance pur- age to the average minimum temperature. The reason for poses. this difference and the nature of the cases observed are dis- Few studies address the climatology of hail events in Eu- cussed. rope (Tuovinen et al., 2009; Webb et al., 2009; Hyvarinen¨ and Saltikoff, 2010). Likewise, predictive models of hail events are lacking and are related in most of the cases with precipitation models. The problem is complicated because most investigations of this topic necessarily in- volve hailstorm time series that are non-homogeneous and Correspondence to: A. Saa Requejo non-continuous. For these reasons, model development ([email protected]) for different geographical regions having different climatic Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 3416 A. Saa Requejo et al.: Analysis of hail damages and temperature series for peninsular Spain characteristics is very difficult (Piani, 2005; Fraile et al., minimum temperatures (Botzen et al. 2010). In fact, these 2003). Moreover, Piani et al. (2005) have observed that the authors found a strong positive correlation between hailstorm relationship between hailstorm events and the parameters re- events and indicators of temperature and precipitation for the lated to their occurrence seems unclear in published works Netherlands. The combination of precipitation with maxi- on the subject. mum temperatures is noted by the authors as one of the best The study of hailstorms is based on several meteorologi- indicators of hailstorm events, whereas minimum tempera- cal parameters that are involved in conditions required to pro- ture is the best indicator when temperature is used alone. duce convection (temperature, instability, a deep humid layer The authors compared the results of this model with the re- in the low and middle troposphere and an updraft to initiate sults of other studies of the problem, e.g., a study of hail- convection), as well as on the specific topographic character- storms occurring in Switzerland (Willemse, 1995). This au- istics of the geographical area studied (Dessens, 1995; Johns thor studied the statistical relationships of severe recorded and Doswell III, 1995; Siemonov and Georgiev, 2003; Lopez´ hailstorm events, based on producer damage claims recorded et al., 2007; Garc´ıa-Ortega et al., 2007). These studies based since 1949, to other climate indicators. He concluded that the their descriptive and predictive models on several parameters data could not be used to extrapolate future hailstorm trends that depended, in most of the cases studied, on the geograph- because the data have too many uncertainties and because the ical area. period considered was too brief. Lopez´ et al. (2007) demonstrated that a reliable hailstorm According to Changnon and Bigley (2005), the correlation study must include an adequate selection of meteorological of temperatures and hailstorm events is highly variable. In- variables that must depend on the specific geographical areas deed, this correlation can have either negative or positive val- involved. Also, a model that proves valuable for a specific ues. In countries where the spatial climatic variation is high geographical area may not give satisfactory results for other (the USA, for example), the value obtained for the correlation areas (Lynn et al., 2004; Chagnon and Bigley, 2005). In- may differ for different states. The same author studied the deed, Lopez´ et al. (2007) obtained varying results when they statistical relation between the mean temperatures across the attempted to apply models having high accuracy for Europe USA and hail and thunderstorm frequencies on a daily basis to other geographical areas. Some studies of hailstorm pre- (Changnon and Changnon, 2000, 2001). The results based diction have shown that instability indices by themselves are on simple correlations for different states showed that the unable to produce successful predictions of the incidence of parameters were negative or positively correlated, depending hailstorms (Manzato, 2003; Siedlecki, 2008). The predic- on the state. In general, states in the High Plains had pos- tions will depend strongly on the specific geographical area itively correlations and greater variability with time, mean- considered because the characteristics of this area will define while states near the Great Lakes exhibited negative correla- the values and parameters associated with the particular me- tions and less variability with time. In this sense, the relation- teorological conditions that occur (Kunz, 2007; Sanchez´ et ship between the indicators seemed to depend on indicators al., 2009; Dimitrova et al., 2009) related to geographical location. Alesandrov and Hoogenboom (2001) demonstrated great McMaster (1999) evaluated the magnitude of hail damage variability in climatology at the local level for Geor- to winter crops in Australia as the result of climate change gia (USA). Uncertainties about parameters are not the only in two geographical areas of New South Wales. The author problem. Additional uncertainties arise because of climate used upper-air climatic data from a global climatic model to change and associated phenomena (Soutworth et al., 2002; obtain forecasts of hail damage. For both geographical ar- Reddy et al., 2002; Tao et al., 2004) and because of social eas studied, the author found no change in hail-related crop perception of climatology in time (Liverman and Merideth, damage losses in relation to the changes in climatic indica- 2002; Camuffo and Sturaro, 2001). tors that resulted from climatic change. The situation is even more complicated because most hail- Mills (2005) mentioned that the losses due to damage storm studies are developed for insurance purposes, and caused by natural disasters have increased since 1960. This only a few of these studies are published. For example, increase has been produced in part by socioeconomic and Dessens (1995) has found that an increase in night-time tem- demographic trends. These trends may be considered when peratures could have been related to an increase in the oc- forecasting extreme climate events, mainly for insurance pur- currence of severe storms in France over the period 1946– poses. Specifically, Mills et al. (2002) found a positively re- 1992. This study shows that the summer mean temperature lation between lightning related insurance losses and average was highly correlated with a yearly hail severity index de- temperature in the USA.
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