April 2019

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: Chairing the Security Council’s Subsidiary Bodies The “joint presidencies” of France and Ger- There will also be a briefing on the Non-Pro- 3 Status Update since our many continue in April as Germany assumes liferation Treaty (NPT) ahead of the 2020 review March Forecast the Council presidency. The role of women in conference chaired by Maas with expected brief- 5 Women, Peace and conflict situations, international humanitarian ings by the Director General of the International Security law and disarmament, all stated priorities of the Atomic Energy Agency Yukiya Amano and Under- 6 Rule of Law/ ”joint presidencies”, feature strongly in April’s Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs Izumi International programme of work. Nakamitsu. Humanitarian Law/ The month will start with a briefing on strength- The Council is expected to renew the man- Protection of Civilians ening respect for international humanitarian law, dates of the UN missions in Haiti (MINUJUSTH) 7 Non-Proliferation presided over by German Foreign Minister Heiko and in Western Sahara (MINURSO) in April. The Maas. Anticipated briefers include ICRC Presi- Council will hold a debate on Haiti prior to the 8 Haiti dent Peter Maurer, Under-Secretary-General for renewal of MINUJUSTH. There will be a TCC 9 Syria Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and Naz meeting and consultations ahead of the renewal 11 Briefing by the High Modirzadeh, Director, Harvard Law School Pro- of MINURSO planned for the end of the month. Commissioner for gram on International Law and Armed Conflict. Regarding African issues, the Council will Refugees Ahead of this briefing there will be an Arria-formula discuss developments in relation to UNISFA in 11 Western Sahara meeting on protecting humanitarian and medical Abyei and Sudan/South Sudan relations. The 13 Colombia personnel in conflict organised by France. Council is also expected to decide whether to 14 Women in UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filip- extend UNISFA’s support to the Joint Border Peacekeeping po Grandi is expected to provide a briefing on Verification and Monitoring Mechanism. There 15 Sudan/South Sudan the current state of refugees worldwide and the will be a briefing and consultations on UNAMID displacement aspect of various conflicts on the in Darfur. 16 Yemen Council agenda. In addition to the quarterly open debate on 17 Sudan (Darfur) There will be three open debates: on women in Israel/Palestine, Middle East issues that will be 19 Middle East (Israel/ peacekeeping; on fighting and preventing sexual considered include: Palestine) violence in conflict situations; and the quarterly • Syria, the monthly briefings on the humanitar- open debate on Israel/Palestine. Maas will preside ian situation, the political process and the use over the debate on sexual violence in conflict dur- of chemical weapons; and ing which the Secretary-General’s annual report • Yemen, an update on the implementation of on this problem will be presented. Secretary-Gen- resolution 2452, which established the UN eral António Guterres and Special Representa- Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement tive on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Pat- (UNMHA). ten are expected to participate, as are the 2018 A briefing followed by consultations on the Nobel Peace Prize Laureates Dr. Denis Mukwe- Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Ver- ge and Nadia Murad and international human ification Mission in Colombia is also anticipated. rights lawyer Amal Clooney. The open debate on Following the visiting mission to Mali and peacekeeping will focus on the importance of and Burkina Faso in March, the Council will be the need for increasing women’s participation in closely watching developments there, as well as in peacekeeping operations and integrating gender Burundi, Myanmar and the Democratic Republic 28 March 2019 perspectives into the work of these operations, of the Congo. This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. with a briefing by Guterres.

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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Chairing the Security Council’s Subsidiary Bodies

In 2016, the General Assembly brought for- distribution of labour within the Council, topics issued in 2014 and 2015, changed the ward the election of Security Council mem- arguing that the P5 should share the burden process of the P5 matching elected members bers from October to June. This has, in turn, of chairing the subsidiary bodies. to subsidiary bodies. sparked moves to change the process and tim- At present, all subsidiary bodies other In 2016, the first year of early elections to ing of appointing chairs of the Council’s sub- than the Military Staff Committee, which is the Council, Japan as chair of the IWG decid- sidiary bodies, of which there are now more composed solely of P5 members, are chaired ed that the IWG should consider how the new- than 20. With the end of the Cold War, during by elected members. This wasn’t always the ly elected members could best take advantage which period only two sanctions committees case. Permanent members have served as of the extended pre-Council period to prepare were set up (Rhodesia and South Africa), the initial chairs of newly-established subsidiary themselves for the demands of their two-year Council in the early 1990s began establishing bodies: the UK chaired the 1267 Al-Qaida term, with the goal of issuing a presidential numerous sanctions committees and work- Sanctions Committee in 1999 and the 1373 note on this matter by the June election. ing groups. Elected members have chaired Counter-Terrorism Committee from 2001 Through many drafts of this note, the P5 most of these bodies, appointed by perma- to 2003; France chaired the Working Group resisted the proposal that the chairs of the nent members (the P5) through an informal on Children and Armed Conflict from 2005 subsidiary bodies would be decided through process that would unfold late each year and to 2008; and the US served as co-chair with a process facilitated by the president of the sometimes continue well into the following Slovakia in 2006 of the Ad Hoc Committee Security Council. This issue eventually led January (in 2010, until 31 January). on Mandate Review to conduct the review to bilateral consultations between two mem- Not knowing in advance which subsidiary of Security Council mandates called for by bers, New Zealand and the US. The compro- bodies a new member would chair left insuf- the 2005 World Summit outcome document. mise formula found in the note issued on 15 ficient time to prepare—either to secure the Furthermore, several subsidiary bodies cur- July was that the appointment of subsidiary right expertise within their teams, or even to rently have permanent members serving as bodies’ chairs “will be facilitated jointly by have a proper handover from the exiting chair. vice-chairs. Since 2007, Russia has been vice- two members of the Security Council in full Permanent members opposed several efforts chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State cooperation.” The unwritten understanding aimed at changing the practice, but in 2016, in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) and was that the two members in question would the new election timetable prompted Council Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, and, since be the chair of the IWG and one permanent members to agree on several new practices 2011, of the 1988 Taliban Sanctions Com- member (S/2016/619). for the incoming members’ longer prepara- mittee. This has also been the case for the UK In 2016 and 2017, the chairs’ appoint- tory period, including an earlier and more on the 1540 Weapons of Mass Destruction ment process worked reasonably well. In consultative process of appointing the chairs Committee since 2005, and for both France 2018, the ten elected members and the five of Council subsidiary bodies. and Russia on the 1373 Counter-Terrorism incoming delegations addressed a joint let- Now, two Council members—one perma- Committee since 2008 and the 1566 Working ter to the president of the Security Council nent, the other the elected member chairing Group since 2013. The UK has been the vice- highlighting, among other issues, “the need the Informal Working Group on Documenta- chair of the Working Group on Peacekeeping for fair burden-sharing and an equal distri- tion and Other Procedural Questions (IWG), Operations since 2013. bution of work amongst all members of the the subsidiary body dedicated to Council Before 2018, there had already been calls Security Council, including its permanent working methods—conduct consultations on the P5 to chair subsidiary bodies. In mid- members” (S/2018/1024). The letter had with the current and incoming Council 2012, Portugal, as chair of the IWG, circu- no immediate impact, but the IWG, cur- members with the aim of having the appoint- lated a draft note by the president on the rently led by Kuwait, took up this issue in ments in place by the beginning of October. appointment of Council subsidiary body early 2019 and has been discussing it at press This process has been used three times, and chairs, which said that the process “should ... time. Among the draft notes by the president the 1 October target has been missed each ensure a balanced representation of all Coun- that the group has been working on is one year. In 2016 and 2017, the appointments cil members as Chairpersons of subsidiary on the chairs’ selection process that reaffirms were finalised on 31 and 6 October, respec- bodies”. After months of negotiation, the the need for the process to be conducted in a tively, while in 2018 the appointments were IWG agreed on a short note in December balanced, transparent, efficient, and inclusive agreed in late November. The lengthy 2018 2012 calling for a more inclusive process, but way, with better burden-sharing as part of the process exposed some of the difficult dynam- the reference to all members chairing sub- collective responsibility that would involve all ics accompanying the selection of chairs of sidiary bodies was not retained, due to P5 the members in the leadership of the Coun- subsidiary bodies. During this period, several opposition (S/2012/937). Neither this note, cil’s subsidiary bodies. of the elected members called for a different nor two other presidential notes on related

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Status Update since our March Forecast

Somalia abstaining (S/PV.8484). The resolution main- Association for the Promotion and Defense of On 1 March, Council members issued a press tains the troop ceiling of 17,000 troops. Lan- Human Rights, also participated. statement, condemning the terrorist attacks of guage was added specifying that “advice or 28 February along the Mukkah Almukaramah technical assistance, within existing resourc- Afghanistan road in Mogadishu, which killed and injured es” can be a part of the mission’s good offices On 15 March, the Council unanimously innocent Somalis (SC/13729). On 27 March, efforts to support the peace process and also adopted as a “technical rollover” resolution the Council renewed the mandate of UNSOM calling on the mission to “support the facili- 2460 extending the mandate UNAMA for until 31 March 2020 (S/RES/2461). tation of the safe, informed, voluntary, and six months (S/PV.8485). Although Council dignified return or relocation of IDPs from members held several rounds of negotiations Counter-Terrorism United Nations protection of civilian sites”. and bilateral meetings, no agreement could The 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq Following the vote, statements were made by be reached on the original draft resolution and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida China, Kuwait, Russia and the US. after which the decision was made to pur- Sanctions Committee met on 6 and 14 March. sue a technical rollover. The US and China On 22 March, the committee added an individ- Human Rights were deadlocked on whether to maintain a ual to its sanctions list. On 15 March, Council On 11 March, there was an Arria-formula reference to the Belt and Road Initiative in members condemned the terrorist attack that meeting on “human rights, accountability the context of welcoming regional econom- took place at Al Noor and Linwood Mosques and justice: contributions to international ic cooperation. Ahead of the adoption, on in Christchurch, New Zealand earlier that day, peace and security”, co-hosted by France and 11 March, the Council held a briefing fol- which resulted in at least 50 killed and many Peru. UN High Commissioner for Human lowed by consultations on the situation in wounded. On 28 March, the Council held an Rights Michelle Bachelet, Under-Secretary- Afghanistan (S/PV.8481). Briefers included open debate on combatting the financing of General for Legal Affairs Miguel de Serpa Special Representative and head of UNAMA, terrorism, with briefings by the Under-Secre- Soares, and former President of the Interna- Tadamichi Yamamoto; Afghanistan’s Nation- tary-General of the UN Counter-Terrorism tional Criminal Tribunals for Rwanda and the al Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib; and Office, Vladimir Voronkov (via video telecon- former Yugoslavia and currently of the Inter- Deputy Executive Director of the Afghan ference) (S/PV.8496). The Council adopted a national Residual Mechanism for Criminal Women’s Network Storai Tapesh. The discus- resolution on the topic (S/RES/2462). Tribunals Theodor Meron, briefed. sion during the meeting centred on, among other things, the political situation including OSCE Briefing EU-UN Briefing the preparations for the 2019 presidential On 7 March, Slovakian Foreign Minister On 12 March, Federica Mogherini, the EU elections, ongoing negotiations on reaching Miroslav Lajčák briefied the Council in his High Representative for Foreign Affairs and a political solution, and security and humani- role of OSCE Chairperson-in-Office (S/ Security Policy briefed the Council on coop- tarian situation in the country. PV.8479). Lajčák presented three main pri- eration between the two organisations (S/ orities during Slovakia’s chairmanship of the PV.8482). She addressed the EU’s involve- Crimea OSCE which include: preventing, mediat- ment in and support for various peacekeep- On 15 March, Arria-formula meeting entitled: ing and mitigating conflict, focusing on the ing operations in Africa and its support for “A symbolic date: Fifth anniversary of the people affected; providing for a safer future; the UN-led political process in Syria. Fur- beginning of Russia’s occupation of Crimea: A and effective multilateralism. The discussion thermore, Mogherini emphasised the impor- blatant violation of international law” was held. at the meeting was mainly centered on the tance of preserving the Joint Comprehensive The meeting was organised by Council mem- crisis in Ukraine given that the OSCE has Plan of Action on Iran and support for other bers Belgium, France, Germany, Poland, the a significant presence in the country and it non-proliferation efforts. During the meeting, UK, and the US, in partnership with Ukraine. is the organisation tasked with monitoring Council members welcomed the cooperation The meeting provided an opportunity to hear the implementation of the Minsk agree- between the UN and EU. first-hand accounts from civil society and ments. During the meeting Council mem- experts on the latest developments with regard bers expressed their support for the work of Women, Peace and Security to Crimea. Briefers during the meeting includ- the organisation and welcomed greater UN- On 13 March, there was an open Arria-formu- ed Sergiy Kyslytsya, Deputy Foreign Minister OSCE cooperation. la meeting on the inequalities between women of Ukraine; Alim Aliev, Program Director of and men in political processes, co-hosted by Crimean House; Ayla Bakkali, executive mem- South Sudan France and Germany. Åsa Regnér, Deputy ber of the World Congress of Crimean Tatars; On 8 March, the Council received a brief- Executive Director of UN Women, and Pra- and Ahtem Chyihoz, Vice Chairman of the ing from Special Representative and head of mila Patten, Special Representative of the Sec- Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar. UNMISS David Shearer (S/PV.8480). A civil retary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict, society representative based in South Sudan briefed at the meeting. AU Special Envoy on Children and Armed Conflict also briefed. Council members held consul- Women, Peace and Security Bineta Diop; Fati- The Working Group on Children and Armed tations following the briefing. On 15 March, ma Maïga of the Malian Coalition des femmes Conflict met on 15 and 18 March to con- the Council adopted resolution 2459 renew- maliennes pour l’agenda Femmes, Paix et tinue negotiations on its conclusions on the ing the mandate of UNMISS for an addi- Sécurité; and Delphine Djiraibe, a Chad- Secretary-General’s report on children and tional year, by 14 votes in favour with Russia ian attorney and co-founder of the Chadian armed conflict in Syria (S/2018/969).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our March Forecast

Democratic Republic of the Congo Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga. Separately, on 28 UNDOF (Golan Heights) On 18 March, the Security Council received March there was a high-level meeting on the On 25 March, in the presence of Israeli Prime a briefing, followed by consultations, on G5 Sahel at UN headquarters in New York. Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President MONUSCO (S/PV.8486). The Council was Donald Trump signed a presidential procla- briefed by Special Representative of the Secre- DPRK mation recognising Israeli sovereignty over tary-General Leila Zerrougui and Anny Tenga On 20 March, the 1718 DPRK Sanctions the Golan Heights. UN spokesman Stéphane Modi, Executive Director of Afia Mamaa, a Committee held a meeting during which Dujarric said on the same day that UN Sec- civil society organisation. A representative committee members discussed the recom- retary-General António Guterres considers from the DRC mission participated in the mendations from the final report of the Panel “that the status of Golan has not changed.” briefing. As of press time, Council members of Experts (S/2019/171). Council members cancelled previously sched- were negotiating a resolution on MONUSCO, uled consultations and held a briefing on 27 whose mandate expires on 31 March. Myanmar March to discuss this as well as the latest Special Representative of the Secretary-Gen- report of the Secretary-General on UNDOF, Libya eral on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila covering the period from 21 November 2018 On 20 March, the Council was briefed by the Patten briefed Council members under “any to 14 March 2019 (S/2019/248). Rosemary Special Representative and head of UNSMIL, other business” on 20 March on her visit to DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Politi- Ghassan Salamé, and the Deputy Permanent Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw from 5 to 8 Feb- cal and Peacekeeping Affairs, and Jean-Pierre Representative of Germany, Ambassador ruary. She provided Council members with Lacroix, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Jürgen Schulz, who chairs the 1970 Libya information on her meetings with Myanmar Operations, briefed and representatives from Sanctions Committee (S/PV.8488). Salamé government officials and the follow-up to the Israel and Syria participated (S/PV.8495). announced that the National Conference on joint communiqué signed on 8 December the future of Libya will be held in April. On 2018 between the UN and the government of Guinea-Bissau 26 March Council members issued a press Myanmar to prevent and respond to conflict- On 26 March, Council members issued a statement welcoming Salamé’s announce- related sexual violence. press statement congratulating Guinea-Bis- ment that the National Conference will take sau for the peaceful conduct of legislative place from 14-16 April 2019 in Ghadames, Middle East and West Africa elections held on 10 March (SC/13746). Libya (SC/13749). On 21 March, Security Council mem- Members recalled the importance of organ- bers held an informal interactive dialogue ising the presidential election within the legal Mali and the Sahel on “Fostering dialogue and cooperation as mandated time frame in 2019, and called On 20 March, the Security Council held an a response to conflicts and common chal- upon national authorities to expedite the informal interactive dialogue with the PBC lenges in the Middle-East and North Africa” review of the constitution. on the Sahel. Germany, as the informal coor- to explore ways to better take into account dinator between the Council and the PBC, regional dynamics, root causes of conflict in Great Lakes Region organised the meeting in preparation for the the region, and common security challenges. On 26 March, outgoing Special Envoy for Council’s visiting mission to Mali and Burki- France and Germany organised the meeting, the Great Lakes Region Said Djinnit briefed na Faso later in the month. The Chair of the which included briefings by Marie-Joëlle the Council on the Secretary-General lat- PBC, Ambassador Guillermo Fernández de Zahar representing University of Montreal, est report (S/2019/229) on the implementa- Soto (Colombia) and Assistant Secretary- the International Peace Institute and Folke tion of the Peace, Security and Cooperation General for Peacebuilding Support Oscar Bernadotte Academy; Joost Hilterman, the Framework for the Democratic Republic of Fernández-Taranco provided briefings. Côte Program Director, Middle East and North the Congo and the Region (S/PV.8491). The d’Ivoire, France and Germany co-led a visit- Africa at the International Crisis Group; and briefing was followed by consultations. ing mission to Mali and Burkina Faso from Mourad Wahba, Assistant Secretary-General, 22 to 24 March. The focus of the mission Assistant Administrator and Director of the Lebanon was to assess the implementation of the 2015 Regional Bureau for Arab States at the UN On 27 March, the Council held consulta- Peace and Reconciliation Agreement in Mali, Development Programme. tions on the implementation of resolution the operationalisation of the joint force of the 1701 which called for a cessation of hostili- G5 Sahel and the deterioration of the secu- Central African Republic ties between the Shi’a militant group Hez- rity situation in Burkina Faso. Upon return- On 22 March, the 2127 CAR Sanctions bollah and Israel in 2006. Council members ing to New York, on 27 March, the co-leads Committee met with the Group of Experts were briefed by newly appointed Special briefed the Council on the mission and on 29 assisting it, to discuss their programme of Coordinator for Lebanon Ján Kubiš; Under- March the Council held a ministerial meeting work for the year. On 26 March Special Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- on Mali chaired by French Foreign Minister Representative and head of MINUSCA tions Jean-Pierre Lacroix; and UNIFIL Force Jean-Yves Le Drian, featuring a briefing by Mankeur Ndiaye briefed the Council under Commander Major General Stefano Del Col. Secretary-General António Guterres and with “any other business”. the participation of Malian Prime Minister

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Women, Peace and Security

Expected Council Action Arria-formula meeting on the preventive individuals. Further options are to strengthen In April, the Council will hold an open debate impact of criminal accountability for con- the dedicated gender and conflict-related sex- on the Secretary-General’s annual report on flict-related sexual and gender-based vio- ual violence expertise informing the work of conflict-related sexual violence. Germany’s lence. The meeting was organised by Ger- sanctions committees and to invite the Spe- Minister for Foreign Affairs, Heiko Maas, is many in partnership with Belgium, the cial Representative to share information with expected to chair. Secretary-General António Dominican Republic, Equatorial Guinea, sanctions committees, as appropriate. Guterres and Special Representative on Sex- France, Kuwait, Peru, Poland, South Africa In the context of the Secretary-General’s ual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten are and the UK. The concept note identified the focus on prevention, a further issue is how to expected to participate, as are the 2018 Nobel objective as exploring how to more effectively give due consideration to the identified risk Peace Prize Laureates Dr. Denis Mukwege integrate criminal accountability for sexual factors of sexual violence as early-warning and Nadia Murad. International human rights violence in conflict into the prevention agen- indicators that could enable the Council bet- lawyer Amal Clooney is also expected to par- da, including into conflict resolution, transi- ter to fulfil its conflict prevention role. ticipate as well as a civil society representative. tional justice and peacebuilding. The results Additional options are to use more con- Germany plans to circulate a concept note of the discussion were intended to feed into sistently Council visiting missions to conflict ahead of the debate. An outcome is possible. the open debate and possible outcome. (See situations to further highlight, where rele- our What’s in Blue story of 7 February for vant, the issue of sexual violence, including Key Recent Developments more details.) the views of survivors, and to support the At press time the Secretary-General was deployment of women’s protection advisers expected to submit his most recent report Key Issues and Options in peacekeeping missions. on conflict-related sexual violence, covering A key issue is the role of the Council in January to December 2018, which will pro- enhancing prevention, early warning and Council Dynamics vide the basis for the April open debate. Con- accountability regarding sexual violence in Discussion of the Secretary-General’s report flict-related sexual violence, as defined in the conflict. Another issue is what the Council on conflict-related sexual violence has been a Secretary-General’s annual reports, “refers to can do to ensure full implementation of the regular feature on the Council’s agenda since rape, sexual slavery, forced prostitution, forced relevant resolutions as well as compliance by 2009, but Council members continue to have pregnancy, forced abortion, enforced steriliza- state and non-state parties. divergent views on aspects of this thematic tion, forced marriage and any other form of The invited civil society speakers, Dr. Muk- agenda, including how to incorporate it into sexual violence of comparable gravity perpe- wege and Ms. Murad, may want to call the the Council’s sanctions regimes and how to trated against women, men, girls or boys that is Council’s attention to the issues of their respec- advance and deepen efforts to integrate the directly or indirectly linked to a conflict.” tive focus and expertise, sexual violence related women, peace and security agenda across all As in previous years, the report is likely to to conflict in the Democratic Republic of the areas of the Council’s work. China and Russia provide an overview of current and emerging Congo and in Iraq (the latter during the Islam- have typically resisted many elements that they concerns, focus on countries for which veri- ic State of Iraq and the Levant occupation). interpret as an expansion of the women, peace fiable information is available, and provide An option is for the Council to closely and security agenda or perceive as infringing country-specific strategic recommendations as monitor the implementation of key resolutions on state sovereignty or the responsibilities of well as overarching policy recommendations. and integrate the issue into relevant country- other parts of the UN system. In this context, Also, as in recent years, the report is expected specific and cross-cutting thematic resolutions. some Council members may be wary of a to include an annex of a list of parties credibly Another option is to support engagement with new outcome, given the continued need for suspected of committing or being responsible state and non-state parties towards specific implementation of resolution 2106 and other for patterns of rape or other forms of sexual commitments on conflict-related sexual vio- relevant resolutions on the issue, and whether violence in situations of armed conflict on the lence and to monitor their compliance, includ- proceeding with an outcome could potentially agenda of the Security Council, the major- ing through the Informal Expert Group on lead to acrimonious negotiations. ity being non-state actors. Last year’s report Women and Peace and Security. Some members have highlighted the detailed the removal of Côte d’Ivoire from the A related issue is expanding designation importance of working closely with relevant annex after no new cases of sexual violence by criteria in all relevant sanctions regimes for sanctions committees to list perpetrators, and members of the Ivorian security forces were situations where sexual violence is persis- they may raise this issue in the open debate. recorded in 2017. The report is also expected tently perpetrated. The Council may also Others have shown interest in focusing on to cover country visits by Patten during 2018, consider how to go beyond receiving brief- how conflict-related sexual violence occurs including to Sudan from 18 to 25 February; ings by the Special Representative on Sexual in situations where there is also systemic gen- Iraq from 26 February to 5 March; Guinea Violence in Conflict and the submission of der-based discrimination, such as the exclu- from 26 to 28 March; Bangladesh in May; and names of perpetrators of sexual violence to sion of women from political life, economic South Sudan from 3 to 7 July. the relevant sanctions committees. This may marginalisation, and discriminatory systems On 8 February, there was an open include adopting targeted measures against in both formal and traditional justice systems.

UN DOCUMENTS ON WOMEN AND PEACE AND SECURITY Security Council Resolution S/RES/2106 (24 June 2013) focused on accountability for perpetrators of sexual violence in conflict, stressed women’s political and economic empowerment, and requested the Secretary-General to report to the Council annually. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/250 (23 March 2018) was the annual report on conflict-related sexual violence for 2017. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8234 (16 April 2018) was the annual debate on sexual violence in conflict.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Rule of Law/International Humanitarian Law/Protection of Civilians

Expected Council Action 5.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, to the protection of humanitarian personnel. In April, German Foreign Minister Heiko Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. It urged those concerned to allow full unim- Maas is expected to preside over a briefing on In addition, the use of siege and the deni- peded access by humanitarian personnel to all strengthening respect for international human- al of basic humanitarian needs, as form of people in need of assistance and to promote itarian law. The anticipated briefers are Inter- warfare, have become increasingly common, the safety, security and freedom of movement national Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) including in these two countries, with appall- of humanitarian personnel. The resolution fur- President Peter Maurer, Under-Secretary- ing effects. On 24 May 2018, the Council ther expressed the Council’s determination to General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Low- adopted resolution 2417 on the link between take appropriate steps in order to ensure the cock, and Naz Modirzadeh, founding Director armed conflict and food insecurity. The reso- safety and security of humanitarian personnel. of the Harvard Law School Program on Inter- lution strongly condemned the use of starva- More recently, in resolution 2175 of 2014, national Law and Armed Conflict. tion of civilians as a method of warfare, as well it strongly condemned violence and intimida- The meeting is scheduled to follow an as the unlawful denial of humanitarian access, tion against those involved in humanitarian Arria-formula meeting on protecting human- and urged all parties to protect civilian infra- operations, urged parties to armed conflict itarian and medical personnel, organised by structure critical to the delivery of aid and to to allow complete and unhindered humani- France earlier on the same day. ensure the proper functioning of food systems. tarian access, urged states to ensure that they On top of the protracted nature of some hold accountable those who commit crimes Background and Recent Developments conflicts with a humanitarian aspect, the envi- against humanitarian workers within their At the end of 2018, the scope of the chal- ronment for humanitarian action has worsened respective territories, and requested the Sec- lenges facing civilians in conflict-affected in recent years amid an increasing number of retary-General to include in his reports on countries, including several on the Council’s armed conflicts, according to the ICRC. It has country-specific situations and other relevant agenda, has remained significant. According noted that the characteristics of these armed reports information regarding the safety and to the Global Humanitarian Overview 2019 conflicts have changed dramatically, a common security of humanitarian workers and to pres- published by OCHA, at least “2 billion peo- thread being the increase in the number of par- ent recommendations about how to strength- ple worldwide live in areas affected by fragility, ties involved in each conflict. In its report The en their protection. Resolution 2286 of 2016 conflict and violence”. More people are being Roots of Restraint in War, published in June emphasised the unacceptability of violations displaced by conflict than in previous years, 2018, the ICRC estimated that only one-third of international humanitarian law arising with the number of forcibly displaced people of conflicts today are between two belligerents. from attacks against humanitarian and medi- rising from 59.5 million in 2014 to 68.5 mil- Almost half of the world’s conflicts involved cal workers and medical facilities. lion in 2017. Natural disasters and climate between three and nine parties, and 22 percent Yet despite the existence of legal norms change also have severe impact, with disasters have more than ten belligerents, most of them to protect humanitarian workers, they are affecting 350 million people on average each non-state actors. According to the ICRC, this at greater risk than ever before. Countries year and causing billions of dollars in damage. trend is detrimental to the delivery of humani- such as Syria, the Central African Repub- OCHA expects that in 2019, nearly 132 mil- tarian assistance as ensuring access becomes lic and Mali are particularly dangerous for lion people will need humanitarian assistance more complicated, involving armed actors that humanitarian workers while many other and protection, the majority because of the are uninformed or unwilling to abide by inter- conflict areas considered safe in the past are impact of conflict. One clear trend is the cur- national humanitarian law. becoming increasingly dangerous for human- rent protracted nature of humanitarian crises, In addition, in certain situations, some of itarian efforts. According to the September with “nearly three-quarters of people targeted the belligerents may be considered terrorist 2018 Secretary-General’s report to the Gen- to receive assistance in 2018 located in coun- organisations by the host state or listed as eral Assembly on the safety and security of tries that have been affected by a humanitarian such by the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in humanitarian personnel and protection of crisis for seven years or more.” One such situa- Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)/Al-Qaida Sanc- UN personnel, 60 employees of NGOs work- tion, Yemen, significantly worsened in 2018. In tions Committee, complicating humanitar- ing in cooperation with UN were killed from 2019, some 24 million people in that country ian assistance that requires coordination with January 2017 to June 2018, 96 were injured, are expected to need humanitarian assistance such groups in areas under their control. and 113 were abducted, each figure an and protection, making Yemen once again the The Council has addressed this issue increase from previous periods. Similarly, as worst humanitarian crisis in the world, accord- repeatedly over the years. In resolution 1502 of at 18 March, the World Health Organisation ing to OCHA. In Syria, an estimated 13 mil- 2003, the Council reaffirmed the need to com- had recorded 729 attacks on medical per- lion people are likely to require humanitarian ply with obligations set forth in international sonnel or infrastructure since January 2018, assistance and protection in 2019. As the Syria humanitarian law, including the Geneva Con- causing 170 deaths and injuring over 900. crisis enters its ninth year, there are more than ventions and the Hague Regulations, related The Arria-formula meeting, which is

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2286 (3 May 2016) condemned attacks on health care workers and facilities in armed conflict. S/RES/2175 (29 August 2014) condemned violence and intimidation against those involved in humanitarian operations. S/RES/1502 (26 August 2003) condemned all violence against humanitarian and UN and associated personnel, recalled obligations to protect such personnel under international humanitarian, refugee and human rights law, and called for unimpeded humanitarian access. Security Council Letter S/2018/815 (31 August 2018) was from Russia addressed to the Secretary-General on the “Declaration of Shared Commitments on United Nations Peacekeeping Operations”. General Assembly Document A/73/392 (24 September 2018) was the report of the Secretary-General titled Safety and security of humanitarian personnel and protection of UN personnel. Other Declaration of Shared Commitments on United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (https://peacekeeping.un.org/sites/ default/files/dpko-dfs-declaration-shared-commitments-unpeacekeeping-1812605e.pdf)

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Rule of Law/International Humanitarian Law/Protection of Civilians supposed to be attended at the ministerial Council and Wider Dynamics measures), as well as some other member states, level, will focus on finding ways to support There is general awareness among Coun- have been particularly reluctant to use the pow- better implementation of existing obligations cil members of the devastating impact that er given to the Security Council in the ICC under international law and identifying best armed conflict has had on civilians in recent statute to refer situations to the Court and have practices in this regard. years. Beyond reaffirming existing commit- pushed to minimise references to the ICC in ments under international humanitarian Council outcomes. Key Issues and Options law, Germany and France have initiated this Differences in perspectives have also sur- The overarching issue is whether, and how, briefing as part of their “twin presidencies” faced with respect to the protection mandate thematic discussions about the protection initiative in March and April, to highlight of peace operations. For example, when Rus- of civilians can be translated into concrete the current negative trends and the need for sia endorsed the Declaration of Shared Com- measures to mitigate the suffering of civil- heightened attention to the issue, and to iden- mitments on UN Peacekeeping Operations— ians in armed conflicts around the world. In tify tangible ways of improving implementa- initiated by the Secretary-General in 2018 this sense, it is important for the Council tion of humanitarian obligations. and endorsed by 151 member states and four to consider how the open debate can focus Despite general agreement on the over- international organisations—it expressed its greater attention on, and galvanise support arching objective, divisions among members reservation over the paragraph saying that for, addressing the needs of civilians in con- affect discussions and approaches towards the peacekeeping operations can contribute to flict-affected countries. protection of civilians in the context of specific international efforts to protect civilians and Another issue is to see if there is a way to conflicts. The P3 and other members tend to to promote and protect human rights. take advantage of the important anniversaries stress accountability measures and sanctions In addition, political differences and alli- coming up in 2019 to strengthen follow-up and as mechanisms for leveraging compliance with ances with opposing belligerents among engagement on protection issues. The 70th international humanitarian law whereas other Council members, particularly among the P5, anniversary of the Geneva Conventions is in members, such as China and Russia, tend to be have hindered the Council’s ability to play an August and this year’s annual open debate on more circumspect about using such enforce- effective role in protecting civilians in con- protection of civilians (expected in May) will ment measures in light of their emphasis on flicts on the Council’s agenda, including in mark the 20th anniversary of including protec- state sovereignty. China, Russia and the US Syria and Yemen. tion of civilians on the Council’s agenda. (despite its general support for accountability

Non-Proliferation

Expected Council Action ultimately complete nuclear disarmament. of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear pro- In April, the Council will hold a briefing under With 191 parties, the NPT is regarded as the gram and the intensified US-Democratic Peo- the agenda item non-proliferation, focused most-observed treaty on disarmament mat- ple’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) diplomatic on supporting the Non-Proliferation Treaty ters. Since its entry into force, the state par- engagement on denuclearisation. (NPT) ahead of the 2020 review conference. ties to the NPT have held review conferences Although the US withdrew from the JCPOA, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is at five-year intervals to review the operation other parties to the agreement have remained expected to chair the meeting. Briefings are of the treaty and address other related issues. committed to its implementation. So far, Iran expected from Director General of the Inter- The treaty was initially set to expire after has continued to implement and verify its nucle- national Atomic Energy Agency Yukiya Ama- 25 years but was made open-ended by the ar-related commitments under the agreement. no and Under-Secretary-General for Disar- states parties during the 1995 NPT review Following its withdrawal, the US imposed a mament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu. conference. The Security Council meeting in series of economic sanctions on Iran and has The Council may adopt an outcome dur- April will provide an opportunity for Council hindered the ability of Iran to access interna- ing the meeting. members to emphasise the importance of the tional financial and oil markets. In January, the non-proliferation regime and express their EU launched a special trade mechanism that Background commitment to the treaty’s implementation. would facilitate legitimate trade between the The NPT was opened for signature in The period since the 2015 NPT review con- EU and Iran and circumvent the US sanctions. 1968 and entered into force in 1970. The ference has been marked by some significant In the absence of economic benefits granted by treaty’s main purposes are the prevention developments on the non-proliferation front. the JCPOA, Iran has threatened that it would of the spread of nuclear weapons, promo- Most notable were the decision of the US to stop adhering to the agreement and would con- tion of peaceful uses of nuclear energy and withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan sider withdrawing from the NPT.

UN DOCUMENTS ON NON-PROLIFERATION Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2325 (15 December 2016) was on the 1540 Sanctions Committee. S/RES/2231 (20 July 2015) endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program. S/RES/1540 (28 April 2004) established the 1540 Sanctions Committee and its mandate and affirmed that proliferation of nuclear weapons and the means of delivery constitute a threat to international peace and security. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8362 (26 September 2018) was a summit-level meeting on countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, chaired by US President Donald Trump. S/PV.8343 (6 September 2018) was an emergency session on the investigation into the nerve agent attack in Salisbury, the UK. USEFUL ADDITIONAL SOURCES Non-Proliferation Treaty andTreaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Non-Proliferation

In 2017, the Council demonstrated unity the treaty. Subsequently, Russia said that it Council Dynamics in reacting to the increase in ballistic missile would no longer adhere to provisions of the Council members are generally supportive testing by the DPRK when it adopted a series treaty. The goal of the INF was to prohibit test- of overall non-proliferation efforts. Council of resolutions toughening the sanctions on the ing and deployment of land-based missiles with dynamics have varied, however, in specific country. The tensions on the Korean peninsu- a range between 310 and 3,420 miles. The trea- cases and situations that the Council has la have decreased significantly during 2018 in ty will formally end in August following a six- discussed. Following its withdrawal from light of renewed inter-Korean and US-DPRK month withdrawal period unless the US and the JCPOA, the US has been isolated in the diplomatic efforts. US President Donald Russia resolve outstanding issues. Council on this issue given that most other Trump and DPRK leader Kim Jong-un have While addressing a UN conference on members as well as the Secretary-General held two summit-level meetings while Kim disarmament in Geneva on 25 February, the share the view that the agreement should be and Republic of Korea President Moon Jae- Secretary-General expressed his concern over preserved. The Council has been unanimous in have met three times. The DPRK denucle- the breakdown of international arms control in its support of recent diplomatic efforts arisation talks reached an impasse during the mechanisms. He called on the US and Russia on denuclearisation of the DPRK. Coun- February US-DPRK summit; Trump broke off to engage in efforts to preserve the INF treaty cil members seem to hold varied positions the talks after Kim offered only to dismantle and also to extend the New START treaty on how the Council should balance the use nuclear facilities in Yongbyon in exchange for (a US-Russia treaty on reduction of strategic of sanctions in light of ongoing diplomatic lifting economic sanctions on the DPRK. This nuclear weapons) ahead of its expiry in 2021. efforts. Some members, in particular China was followed by media reports showing sat- In May 2018, the Secretary-General unveiled and Russia, are becoming increasingly inter- ellite imagery suggesting that the DPRK has his disarmament agenda, called “Securing ested in considering some form of sanctions resumed activity at some of its missile launch Our Common Future”, which presents a set relief for the DPRK while the US and most sites and missile production sites. of practical measures on a range of disarma- other members oppose this. The 2018 use of In February, the US announced that it ment issues, focusing on weapons of mass a nerve agent in Salisbury has unveiled anoth- would withdraw from the 1987 US-Russia destruction, conventional weapons, and new er dynamic in the Council, pitting the UK Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) battlefield technologies. and its allies against Russia. Treaty, citing Russia’s lack of compliance with

Haiti

Expected Council Action mismanagement, inflation, and embezzlement The Secretary-General said in the report that In April, the Council is scheduled to hold a of money from a programme of discounted he believes Haiti remains on a positive trajec- debate on the situation in Haiti with a brief- oil from Venezuela. The situation has since tory, with varying degrees of democratic func- ing from Special Representative and head of become calmer. Challenges remain in the tioning and institutional strengthening. the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti form of mistrust between Moïse and Céant Council members received an update in (MINUJUSTH) Helen Meagher La Lime as well as Haiti’s barely-functioning and frag- consultations on 8 March from Assistant Sec- ahead of the expiration of MINUJUSTH’s mented parliament. According to the Secre- retary-General for Europe, Central Asia and mandate on 15 April. At press time, UN High tary-General’s latest report, in 2018 fewer than the Americas Miroslav Jenča. They discussed Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle half of scheduled parliamentary sessions were recent political and security developments Bachelet is also scheduled to brief. A civil held and only seven laws were adopted. On 18 as well as the upcoming mandate renewal. society briefer may also be included. The March the Parliament passed a no-confidence According to Jenča, all Haitian stakeholders Council is expected to adopt a decision deter- vote against Céant and his government. Céant agree that MINUJUSTH’s mandate must mining the nature of the UN presence follow- called it “illegal”, and at press time a new end in October. The Secretariat was clear in ing the end of the mandate of MINUJUSTH. prime minister had not yet been appointed. its desire for a strong UN political presence On 1 March, the Secretary-General trans- to remain in Haiti with close cooperation Key Recent Developments mitted to the Council his report on MINU- amongst all UN entities. Members agreed February was marked by violent protests JUSTH, which included recommendations to the press elements on the meeting that throughout much of the country in which from the UN strategic assessment. The assess- France conveyed at the media stakeout. 34 people were reportedly killed. President ment was to recommend the appropriate time Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator Jovenel Moïse and Prime Minister Jean-Hen- to close MINUJUSTH, which sectors the UN Ursula Mueller briefed member states on 13 ry Céant have both pledged to address the should continue to support, and an appro- March on the humanitarian situation in Haiti root causes of the protests, namely claims of priate UN configuration post-MINUJUSTH. and OCHA’s Humanitarian Response Plan.

UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2410 (10 April 2018) extended MINUJUSTH’s mandate until 15 April 2019. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/198 (1 March 2019) was the latest 90-day implementation report called for in resolution 2410 and included results and recommendations from a Strategic Assessment Mission.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Haiti

Mamadou Diallo, the UN Deputy Special to approve a six-month renewal of MINU- peace and security, and that support can Representative, Resident Coordinator and JUSTH while simultaneously stipulating therefore be continued through a UNCT. Humanitarian Coordinator in Haiti, who also what will follow it, either in a separate reso- The status of the October elections is participated in the meeting, reported that 2.6 lution or as part of the renewal. This would be uncertain. There has been no progress on an million Haitians will need humanitarian assis- comparable to the transition of the UN Sta- electoral budget or law. Some members feel tance and protection in 2019. Mueller stressed bilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) to that while the Haitian National Police (HNP) that last year the appeal for Haiti was funded at MINUJUSTH. The Secretariat will want to will be able to provide electoral security, it just 13 percent, making Haiti the most under- know ahead of time what comes next in order will be necessary for the UN to maintain funded crisis in the world; the shortfall in to make the transition as smooth as possible. a presence for electoral and technical sup- international support threatens Haiti’s strong port. Some also want the SPM to be able to work towards a better future, she said. Council Dynamics advise the HNP in planning electoral secu- Council members are united in supporting rity. Members may be considering budgetary Key Issues and Options Haiti, though questions remain about the best implications as they determine the future role The Council is expected to renew MINU- way to do so. In consultations on 8 March, of the UN, especially given the US initiative JUSTH’s mandate by 15 April, as resolu- some members were apparently sufficiently to streamline the cost of peace operations. tion 2410 stipulated that the Council should worried in the wake of the February protests The situation in Venezuela remains a mat- consider “the withdrawal of MINUJUSTH to suggest that the Council examine extend- ter to watch. While there is no explicit link, and transition to a non-peacekeeping United ing MINUJUSTH past October. Those mem- Russia has said in several public sessions that Nations presence in Haiti beginning no sooner bers do not want to let Haiti slide back into the differing Western attitudes to Haiti and than 15 October 2019”. What this will mean for bad habits, especially with upcoming elec- Venezuela are hypocritical. According to Rus- the post-15 October period, however, is up for tions scheduled for October. Some members sia, the US has not welcomed the protests debate and a source of Council disagreement. stressed that human rights will need to remain in Haiti, while supporting those in Venezuela. The Secretariat wants a smooth and orderly in any next phase, which may be a source of The US, as penholder, sometimes inter- transition that maintains a strong UN politi- Council disagreement. Several members have acts during draft negotiations with the Group cal presence in Haiti. It considers a progressive indicated the importance of continued UN of Friends of Haiti, comprising Argentina, approach important to a successful transition. support for rebuilding Haitian institutions. Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, As the Council now looks ahead to the period More broadly, members supported the France, Guatemala, Peru, the US and Uru- after mid-October, the three broad options idea of an SPM, as suggested by the Secre- guay. However, the level of interaction has appear to be a renewal of MINUJUSTH, the tary-General. Most seem in favour of a medi- varied from year to year. closure of MINUJUSTH with replacement by um-sized SPM, while there has also been At press time, no draft for the mandate a special political mission (SPM), or the clo- some support for a small SPM with a stra- renewal and post-MINUJUSTH plans had sure of MINUJUSTH with replacement by a tegic advisory role. However, some members been circulated. strong UN Country Team (UNCT). strongly believe that the situation in Haiti A likely option for the Council may be does not constitute a threat to international

Syria

Expected Council Action an upsurge in attacks by government forces about the living conditions of civilians who In April, the Council will receive the monthly and in civilian casualties. The situation in the had fled the area, including family members briefings on the humanitarian situation, the north-east of Syria remains fragile following of foreign terrorist fighters. political process, and the use of chemical the December 2018 announcement by the Briefing the Council on 26 February, Ree- weapons in Syria. US regarding the withdrawal of its troops, na Ghelani, the director of OCHA’s Opera- with the potential for an escalation of violence tions and Advocacy Division, emphasised the Key Recent Developments between Turkey and the Kurdish YPG mili- need for sustained humanitarian access to the As the conflict enters its ninth year, the tia, which is part of the Syrian Democratic makeshift camp of Rukban near the border humanitarian situation in Syria remains crit- Forces (SDF). On 23 March, the SDF took with Jordan. She said that although most resi- ical. After Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (a Coun- over the village of Baghouz and declared vic- dents have expressed their wish to leave the cil-designated terrorist group) took control tory over the Islamic State in Iraq and the camp, they have ongoing concerns related to of most of Idlib in January, there has been Levant (ISIL). However, concerns persist their safety and security. She reiterated that

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2449 (13 December 2018) renewed the authorisation for cross-border and cross-line humanitarian access to Syria. S/RES/2254 (18 December 2015) focused on the key elements of a political solution to the Syrian crisis. S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) was on the verification and destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles. Security Council Letters S/2019/201 (1 March 2019) was an OPCW report on progress in the elimination of the Syrian chemical weapons pro- gramme. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8475 (28 February 2019) was Pedersen’s first briefing to the Council on Syria. S/PV.8471 (26 February 2019) was a briefing on the humanitarian situation in Syria.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Syria any returns or relocations must be voluntary, recently created Identification and Investiga- likely to yield results, considering the Syrian safe, dignified and well-informed and must tion Team of the OPCW is expected to focus government’s emphasis on regaining territory abide by core protection standards that com- in the coming months on this and other cases and consolidating control. With Pedersen still ply with international humanitarian law and of suspected use of chemical weapons in the early in his tenure, Council members could human rights law. Syrian conflict. organise a retreat to hold an informal and Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. Peders- Separately, the OPCW and the Syrian frank discussion with him to consider how, en briefed the Council for the first time on government have held two technical meetings individually and collectively, they can best 28 February and identified five goals for the in recent weeks to discuss the gaps, incon- support the prospects of a political process period ahead: sistencies and discrepancies identified by the based on resolution 2254. • to begin and then deepen a sustained OPCW in Syria’s initial declaration in 2013 The issue of detainees, abductees and dialogue with the government and the of its chemical weapons stockpile. missing persons has not attracted much opposition on building trust and confi- On 12-14 March, the EU and the UN attention in the Council and is mostly consid- dence towards a safe, calm and neutral co-chaired the third Brussels conference on ered under the rubric of confidence-building environment; supporting the future of Syria and the region. measures being discussed by the Astana guar- • to see more concrete action on detainees, At the conference, participants pledged $7 antors. With little progress on this front and abductees and missing persons; billion for 2019 and close to $2.4 billion in the Syrian government’s release of thousands • to engage a wide range of Syrians and multi-year pledges for 2020 and beyond. of prisoner death notices, the Council could involve them in the political process; hold a meeting specifically to shed light on • to convene a credible, balanced and inclu- Human Rights-Related Developments this little-discussed issue and call on the guar- sive constitutional committee as soon as During its 40th session, the Human Rights Coun- antors to use their influence on the govern- cil (HRC) held an interactive dialogue on 12 March possible; and ment to engage in good faith on this matter. with the Commission of Inquiry on Syria and con- • to help the international parties deepen sidered its report (A/HRC/40/70). The report A new concern is that the Syrian gov- their own dialogue towards a credible and details violations and the general absence of the ernment and its allies could use the recent sustainable political settlement of the con- rule of law affecting civilians throughout the coun- takeover of most of Idlib by Hay’at Tahrir al- flict that can enjoy international support. try, including 6.2 million internally displaced per- Sham to justify a military offensive. sons and 5.6 million refugees seeking to return. High Representative for Disarmament The Council could request a briefing in Based on investigations conducted from 11 July Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu briefed Council 2018 to 10 January, the report finds that the cur- consultations from the Secretariat to focus on members on 6 March in consultations on the rent situation throughout Syria “undermines the the potential for instability in north-eastern use of chemical weapons in Syria. Members feasibility of the return of internally displaced Syria, call on the actors involved to exercise considered a 1 March report of the Organi- persons and refugees”. The report sets out ten restraint, and support good-offices efforts to recommendations to “effectively address the zation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weap- address long-standing grievances. complex issue of returns”. On 22 March, the HRC ons (OPCW) Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) voted 28 to 5 (with 14 abstentions) to extend the Council members could invite the director regarding the chemical weapons attack that mandate of the Commission for one year (HRC/ of the OPCW to participate in an informal took place in Douma (Eastern Ghouta) on RES/40/L.7). The resolution expresses the HRC’s interactive dialogue on the work of the organ- 7 April 2018. The report concluded that the “appreciation to the Commission for its briefings isation on Syria. evaluation and analysis of all the information to members of the Security Council, and recom- mends the continuation of future briefings”. gathered by the FFM “provide reasonable Council and Wider Dynamics grounds that the use of a toxic chemical as a The Council continues to be divided over weapon took place” and that “the toxic chem- Key Issues and Options the Syrian conflict. While the arrival of a new ical was likely molecular chlorine”. Although Given the crucial role of the Astana guaran- envoy provides an opportunity to reinvigorate the FFM is not mandated to assign responsi- tors (Iran, Russia and Turkey) on both the the political process, Council dynamics on bility, the report established that it is possible political and humanitarian fronts, Council Syria continue to be characterised by polari- that two yellow industrial cylinders “were the members could seek an informal interactive sation, particularly among permanent mem- source of the substances containing reactive dialogue with their representatives to have bers, on the three files through which the con- chlorine” that caused structural damage in a more action-oriented discussion regard- flict is discussed: political, humanitarian, and two locations (one of the cylinders was found ing current and future efforts to avert a full- chemical weapons. on a rooftop terrace and the other passed fledged military offensive in Idlib. Belgium, Germany and Kuwait are co- through the ceiling of a different building Council members continue to be pro- penholders on humanitarian issues in Syria. and hit the floor). Although at this point no foundly divided over Syria, and some question reaction is expected from the Council, the whether any effort on the political process is

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Briefing by the High Commissioner for Refugees

Expected Council Action were neglected because of short-term and address. In particular, 57 percent of refugees In April, UN High Commissioner for Refu- competing interests, they eventually expand- come from three situations on the Council’s gees Filippo Grandi will brief the Council. The ed and became transnational crises. agenda: Afghanistan, South Sudan and Syria. briefing will take place under the agenda item After two years of consultations led by Grandi visited Syria for the fourth time on “Briefing by the United Nations High Com- UNHCR with member states and other 7 March to assess the massive humanitarian missioner for Refugees”, which allows for a stakeholders, the General Assembly affirmed needs facing the population. An estimated 1.4 general briefing by the High Commissioner the Global Compact on Refugees on 17 million IDPs returned to their homes in Syria without tying it to a specific situation on the December 2018. The compact provides guid- in 2018. At the same time, more than 5.6 mil- Council agenda. No outcome is expected. ance for states and international organisa- lion Syrians live as refugees across the region, tions about how to support refugees and meet and 6.2 million remain internally displaced. Background their needs in ways that benefit them as well The protracted conflict in Afghanistan has Since the early 1990s, the Council has occa- as their host communities. Its objectives are resulted in nearly 2.5 million Afghan refugees, sionally received briefings by the High Com- to ease pressures on host countries, promote the second largest refugee population in the missioner for Refugees about specific situations refugee self-reliance, expand access to third- world after Syria, and 2 million IDPs. Speak- on the Council’s agenda, such as briefings by country solutions, and support conditions in ing at the Geneva Conference on Afghanistan then-High Commissioner António Guterres countries of origin in order to facilitate refu- on 27 November 2018, Grandi noted that a on the Sahel in 2012 under the agenda item gees’ safe return. solution to Afghan displacement “continues “Peace and Security in Africa” or on Syria in to be central to any debate about the future December 2015. It has received three briefings Key Issues of Afghanistan”. under the agenda item “Briefing by the Unit- Germany, the Council President for April, The civil war in South Sudan, which broke ed Nations High Commissioner for Refugees”. has opted to use this general agenda item to out in December 2013, has occasioned mass The first such briefing was on 10 November request that Grandi brief on any situations displacement, with over 2.2 million refugees 2000 when High Commissioner Sadako Ogata he wishes to address on the Council’s agen- in neighbouring countries and nearly 2 mil- gave her final address to the Council before da. Grandi is expected to address the cur- lion IDPs. leaving her post. While it was Ogata’s 12th rent state of refugees worldwide and the dis- Another situation of concern is Myanmar, Council briefing, all of her previous briefings placement aspect of various conflicts on the where more than 745,000 Rohingya refugees had been held under country-specific agenda Security Council agenda, with a view to high- from Myanmar fled to Bangladesh as a result items. On 8 January 2009, Guterres briefed the lighting ways in which the Council can help of the violent acts of the Myanmar military Council under this general agenda item during alleviate the global refugee crisis and perhaps forces after the 25 August 2017 attacks by the presidency of France. support the work of UNHCR. the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army on More than eight years passed until Grandi The number of displaced people around security posts, joining 200,000 Rohingya briefed the Council under the same agenda the world is considered to be at its highest ever. refugees in Bangladesh displaced by previ- item on 2 November 2017. He surveyed the According to UNHCR, there are currently ous cycles of violence. Grandi was scheduled multitude of displaced people in various new 40 million internally displaced people (IDPs), to visit Rakhine state in Myanmar in January, crises as well as in protracted situations that 25.4 million refugees and 3.1 million asylum- but Myanmar authorities cancelled the trip. had remained entrenched. He said that the seekers worldwide. More than 44,000 people On 15 February, UNHCR and the Interna- sharp rise in forced displacement reflected are forced from their homes daily because tional Organization for Migration launched declining international cooperation and of conflict or persecution. Numerous con- the 2019 Joint Response Plan (JRP) to meet capacity to prevent, contain and resolve con- flict situations on the Council’s agenda have the massive needs of the refugees, seeking to flicts. He added that when local situations a displacement component that Grandi may raise $920 million.

Western Sahara

Expected Council Action Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) activities and Colin Stewart, the Special Repre- In April, Council members expect to hold before it expires on 30 April. The Secretary- sentative for Western Sahara and head of MIN- consultations on Western Sahara and to General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, URSO, is expected to brief on the Secretary- renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Horst Köhler, is expected to brief on his latest General’s MINURSO report, due in early April.

UN DOCUMENTS ON BRIEFINGS BY THE HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8083 (2 November 2017) was a briefing by High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. S/PV.6062 (8 January 2009) was a briefing by High Commissioner António Guterres. S/PV.4219 (10 November 2000) was a briefing by High Commissioner Sadako Ogata. General Assembly Document A/73/12 (13 September 2018) contains the Global Compact on Refugees. UN DOCUMENTS ON WESTERN SAHARA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2440 (31 October 2018) extended the mandate of MINURSO for a further six months. Secretary- General’s Report S/2018/889 (3 October 2018) was on MINURSO. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8387 (31 October 2018) was the adoption and explanation of votes on MINURSO in which Bolivia, Ethiopia and Russia abstained. Security Council Press Statement SC/13686 (31 January 2019) was a two-paragraph statement reiterating Council members’ support for the personal envoy and his efforts.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Western Sahara

Key Recent Developments for their constituencies. The participants Russia abstained). These members did not Western Sahara has been the subject of terri- issued a communiqué in which they agreed feel that the resolution adequately reflect- torial disputes since Spain withdrew in 1976. to continue discussions to find a mutually ed their positions. Russia also said that the Initially both Morocco and Mauritania pre- acceptable political solution but presented negotiating process of the draft was not posi- sented claims, but Mauritania renounced no concrete actions. tive. The US can be expected to pursue its theirs in 1979. The independence movement MINURSO’s mandate was last renewed 2018 approach, and may cite the increased is led by the Polisario Front. The UN has on 31 October 2018 through the adoption of dialogue as proof that this method of pres- been actively involved in seeking a solution to resolution 2440. sure is working to restart progress toward this conflict since 1985. The Council estab- a reliable political process. However, given lished MINURSO in 1991, through resolu- Key Issues and Options the ostensible positive momentum, France tion 690 (1991). Since then, there has been Members want to see real progress on this may want to return to one-year renewals of little progress and the referendum referred nearly 30-year-old file. One area of concern MINURSO. That was the practice since 2008, to in the mission’s name has not taken place. is how to agree on confidence-building mea- and France was the leading proponent for a On 5 and 6 December 2018, Morocco, sures, which would be a logical next step in 12-month extension during the last mandate the Polisario Front, Algeria and Mauritania discussions. The parties’ positions on a politi- renewal. This also reflects its staunch sup- attended a roundtable meeting in Geneva. cal solution remain mutually exclusive. The port for Morocco, which has not been keen to This was the first roundtable with the stake- Polisario’s position has been that the final sta- have the more frequent reporting and Secu- holders since the last informal talks in 2012. tus of Western Sahara can only be decided in rity Council meetings on Western Sahara that The last formal round of negotiations was in a referendum that includes independence as result from the shorter mandate extensions. March 2008. The attendees adopted a com- an option, while Morocco has proposed that Event though France voted in favour of the muniqué that noted, “Delegations took stock Western Sahara be an autonomous region last mandate renewal, it included in its state- of recent developments, addressed regional within Morocco. Members will want to see ment after the vote that it would have pre- issues, and discussed the next steps in the the impact of the second roundtable, under- ferred a year-long renewal. political process on Western Sahara”. The standing that the situation remains difficult South Africa, who joined the Council in year ended with a sense of momentum for with these very different positions. January, has maintained its strong support the first time in several years. Concerning the mandate, it should be not- for the Polisario Front position. The African On 29 January, members of the Coun- ed that the political process and the peace- Council members do not have a shared posi- cil met in consultations to hear an update keeping mission are two separate parts of the tion on Western Sahara, with only South Afri- from Köhler on the Geneva meeting and his Western Sahara issue. The personal envoy— ca having recognised an independent Sahrawi subsequent efforts. On 31 January, Council the post has existed since 1997—is appointed Arab Democratic Republic, as proclaimed by members issued a press statement, its first directly by the Secretary-General, and is not Polisario in 1976. on Western Sahara since 4 February 2008. part of MINURSO; successive resolutions Overall, Council members have been sup- The statement expressed unified Council renewing MINURSO’s mandate usually portive of the efforts of the personal envoy, support for Köhler’s efforts and welcomed simply welcome and encourage the Special and any division over the mandate could be the December roundtable and the participa- Envoys’ efforts. The US has been arguing for detrimental. His mandate rests on being able tion of Morocco, the Polisario Front, Algeria tying the two mechanisms together for the to establish trust amongst the parties, and and Mauritania. It also noted that a second purposes of determining whether MINUR- having Council support is critical to his legiti- roundtable was foreseen for the first quarter SO is fulfilling its mandate on the ground. macy in suggesting paths forward. Köhler has of 2019. also been active in keeping the wider Group Throughout March, Köhler continued to Council and Wider Dynamics of Friends–countries with a particular interest work on the next stage of discussions. He Against a backdrop of cautious optimism, the in the issue–informed, which has not always held bilateral talks with stakeholders in Ber- Council will have to decide how the recent been past practice. lin and Paris in early March. After these dis- rounds of discussion between the stakehold- The US is the penholder on Western cussions, a second roundtable was held on ers affects MINURSO’s mandate. The US Sahara. Resolutions are initially discussed 21 and 22 March near Geneva. News reports has argued that without the political process, among the Group of Friends, comprising ahead of the meeting said the aim of this there should be no MINURSO, and was France, Russia, the UK, and the US, joined stage was simply to deepen the exchange of successful in 2018 in having two shortened by Spain, the former colonial power and a ideas, and officials cautioned against expect- six-month renewals of the mandate. The aim country that provides much logistical sup- ing breakthroughs. In his statements after was to put greater pressure on the parties to port to the Sahrawi in Tindouf. Spain also the roundtable, Köhler “encouraged delega- restart the political process. However, this provides significant humanitarian support tions to explore good faith gestures and con- idea was controversial, and when it came and remains worried about any reduction in crete actions that go beyond the roundtable.” to adoption Bolivia, Ethiopia, and Russia financial aid by donors. He said that the roundtable showed that all abstained (during the vote on the mandate stakeholders want to create a better situation renewal in April 2018 China, Ethiopia, and

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Colombia

Expected Council Action 17 January attack against a police academy in some forms of government support, includ- In April, the Council will receive a briefing on Bogotá, which resulted in at least 21 deaths, ing health and education services and the the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the and other deadly attacks since then, including provision of monthly allowances, are due to UN Verification Mission in Colombia. Con- against critical infrastructure. On 18 Janu- expire on 15 August. sultations are expected to follow the briefing. ary, Council members issued a press state- The mandate of the verification mission ment condemning “in the strongest possible Human Rights-Related Developments expires on 25 September. terms the terrorist attack”. Except for a three- During its 40th session, the Human Rights Coun- cil considered the report of the High Commission- month bilateral ceasefire agreed with the gov- er for Human Rights on Colombia on 20 March (A/ Key Recent Developments ernment between September 2017 and Janu- HRC/40/3/Add.3). The report, covering January The implementation of the November 2016 ary 2018, the ELN has remained active. Talks to December 2018, described the human rights Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and held in Cuba between the administration of situation in Colombia with regard to democracy, Building a Stable and Lasting Peace in Colom- then-President Juan Manuel Santos and the security, development, civic participation and peace and highlighted some of OHCHR’s activi- bia continues to face obstacles. Briefing the ELN were suspended in August 2018, and ties in the country. It included OHCHR’s assess- Council on 23 January, Carlos Ruiz Massieu, the current administration announced that ment of the second year of implementation of the the Special Representative and head of the they would not be resumed until the ELN human rights aspects of the peace agreement UN Verification Mission in Colombia, rec- released kidnapped hostages and unilaterally and highlighted challenges related to defending ognised the progress achieved, including the ceased to commit verifiable criminal acts. human rights, fighting impunity and corruption, the upsurge of violence, and social and cultural plan for “Peace with Legality” developed by Following the January attack, the gov- rights, particularly in rural areas. the Colombian government, but stressed that ernment of Colombia requested that Cuba, what is now most urgently needed is the trans- which has continued to host an ELN delega- lation of existing plans into effective actions tion, hand over the members of the delega- Key Issues and Options that change the realities on the ground. Coun- tion to the Colombian authorities. The gov- An important issue is ensuring that the peace cil members echoed this in a press statement ernment, which characterises the ELN as a agreement is implemented in its entirety adopted the next day in which they called for terrorist organisation, has said publicly that under the new administration, given that it quick work to translate plans into action in the it does not consider itself bound by protocols has taken a different approach from that of the areas most affected by the conflict. put in place by the Santos administration to administration of former President Juan Man- An increasingly divisive issue is the work of provide security guarantees to the ELN del- uel Santos regarding agrarian reform, transi- the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (SJP), the egation in case of a rupture in the talks. At the tional justice mechanisms, and the cultivation justice component of the transitional justice 23 January briefing, high-level representatives of coca. Council members could follow up on system established by the peace agreement. In of both Colombia and Cuba delivered state- the invitation conveyed by Foreign Minister February, President Iván Duque objected to ments, but did not address this issue. Carlos Holmes Trujillo in September 2018 several provisions of the statutory law of the Attacks against human rights defend- and organise a visiting mission to Colombia SJP. Furthermore, Duque’s party, the Centro ers and community leaders continue. In to convey the Council’s unanimous support Democrático, has announced a legal reform addition to the ELN, other armed groups for the agreement and reassure Colombians that would significantly modify the mandate remain active, including former members about the irreversibility of the process. of the SJP. On 11 March, the UN country of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de In addition to the need for clarity on the team and the UN Verification Mission in Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP) mandate of the SJP, the government’s abil- Colombia issued a statement characterising who are frustrated with shortcomings in the ity to develop and finance a strategy for rein- as regrettable the fact that the SJP still lacks a peace process and have taken up arms again, tegrating former FARC-EP members into solid legal framework guaranteeing its auton- and the criminal group Clan del Golfo. The society and to provide safety and security in omous and independent operation. At a 13 limited access to economic opportunities for areas previously occupied by the FARC-EP March meeting in New York with Colombian former combatants continues to hamper the remain critical issues in the successful imple- Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo, Sec- reintegration process. While there is now a mentation of the agreement. Council mem- retary-General António Guterres reiterated governmental plan, “Peace with Legality”, bers could encourage dialogue between rep- concerns expressed by the UN in Colombia earlier Secretary-General’s reports have resentatives of the government and former with respect to the uncertainty surrounding underlined that economic reintegration is FARC-EP members to overcome the trust the adoption of the statutory law and his hope clearly lagging behind, including in regards deficit and discuss how outstanding issues for swift action to ensure that this legal foun- to access to land for former combatants. can be addressed. dation is put into place as soon as possible. At the 23 January briefing, Ruiz Massieu In recent months there has been an escala- identified a near-term challenge of defining Council and Wider Dynamics tion of violence by the Ejército de Liberación the future status of the 24 Territorial Areas Council members are unified in their support Nacional (ELN) armed group, including a for Training and Reintegration, given that for the peace process in Colombia. Several

UN DOCUMENTS ON COLOMBIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2435 (13 September 2018) renewed the mandate of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/265 (26 March 2019) was the 90-day report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8450 (23 January 2019) was a briefing by Ruiz Massieu with the participation of Colombia and Cuba. Security Council Press Statements SC/13676 (24 January 2019) encouraged the parties to accelerate efforts to secure the full political, legal, and socio-economic reincorporation of former FARC-EP members. SC/13671 (18 January 2019) condemned the terrorist attack at the General Santander National Police Academy in Bogotá, which resulted in over 20 fatalities and left dozens injured.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Colombia members have viewed engagement in Colom- SJP may test how critical Council members the wishes of its government. According to bia as a rare bright spot for the Council as are willing to be in public and in private. UNHCR, Colombia hosted 1,174,000 Ven- it struggles to play an effective role in sev- Diplomatic relations between Colombia ezuelan refugees and migrants by the end of eral other conflict situations. While Council and Venezuela, which have been tense over 2018 and is expected to host almost 2 million members have generally been deferential the latter’s alleged support for the ELN, were by the end of 2019. towards the government since the issue was broken off by Venezuela as a result of a 23 The UK is the penholder on Colombia. first brought to the Council’s agenda in Janu- February crisis in which Colombia supported ary 2016, recent developments regarding the an attempt to deliver aid to Venezuela against

Women in Peacekeeping

Expected Council Action and in key positions” and to “integrating a and meaningful participation of women in all In April, there will be an open debate on gender perspective into all stages of analysis, aspects of peacekeeping”. This strategy has women in peacekeeping. Secretary-General planning, implementation and reporting.” recently been completed, and its key findings António Guterres and a civil society repre- The Security Council has also pronounced might be presented to the Council prior to or sentative may brief. itself on the importance of women’s partici- during the open debate. pation in peacekeeping operations. Notable Background and Key Recent in this regard was the adoption of resolution Key Issues and Options Developments 2242 in October 2015. The resolution urged The key issue is what the Council can do There is widespread recognition of the impor- the Department of Peacekeeping Operations to encourage the increased participation of tance of increasing women’s participation and the Department of Political Affairs “to women in peacekeeping operations, including in peacekeeping operations and integrating ensure the necessary gender analysis and in specific roles and contexts. In this regard, gender perspectives into the work of these technical gender expertise” throughout the the debate could provide an opportunity to operations. In 2017, Canada launched the life-cycle of missions. It further “welcome[d] consider what obstacles exist at the national Elsie Initiative for Women in Peacekeeping the Secretary-General’s commitment to pri- and regional levels to increasing women’s to work with interested member states to fos- oritize the appointment of more women in participation in peacekeeping and how these ter the meaningful involvement of women in senior United Nations leadership positions”, could be best addressed. Once the strategy is peace operations through funding and tech- as well as “efforts to incentivize greater presented, an option for the Council would nical assistance. A contact group supporting numbers of women in militaries and police be to request regular updates on its imple- this initiative consists of Canada, Argentina, deployed to United Nations peacekeeping mentation. To keep the momentum, a further France, the Netherlands, Ghana, Norway, operations”. In this regard, it called on the option would be to ask UN Women and the Senegal, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, Secretary-General “to initiate, in collabo- Department of Peace Operations to brief the Sweden, the UK and Uruguay. ration with Member States, a revised strat- Council on ways in which increasing female At a high-level meeting on his Action for egy, within existing resources, to double the participation in peace operations enhances Peacekeeping (A4P) initiative on 25 Sep- numbers of women in military and police their effectiveness. Another option would be tember 2018 on the margins of the General contingents of UN peacekeeping operations for the Council to pursue a presidential state- Assembly, Guterres told member states that over the next five years”. There is a dearth ment or resolution that encourages member active steps were being pursued to enhance of women in UN peace operations; in Octo- states to increase their contribution of female the role of women in peacekeeping, noting ber 2017, women constituted 28.3 percent of peacekeepers and support the Secretariat’s that “more women in peacekeeping means international staff serving in peace operations. efforts to recruit more women to serve in more effective peacekeeping.” The Secretary- When the Council adopted resolution peacekeeping operations, including in lead- General reiterated this point in his statement 2436 on peacekeeping performance in Sep- ership positions. at the Council’s “strengthening of peace- tember 2018, the revised strategy for increas- keeping operations in Africa” debate on 20 ing women in peacekeeping operations had Council and Wider Dynamics November 2018. Similarly, the A4P Declara- not been completed. Recalling resolution The open debate on women in peacekeep- tion of Shared Commitments, agreed to by 2242, the peacekeeping performance resolu- ing is one of the key events of Germany’s 151 member states, recommits its supporters tion set a deadline of March 2019 for this presidency. The other open debate Germa- to “increasing the number of civilian and uni- strategy to be presented to the Council and ny is hosting in April is on sexual violence formed women in peacekeeping at all levels requested that it ensure “the full, effective in conflict. The themes of these debates are

UN DOCUMENTS ON WOMEN IN PEACEKEEPING Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2436 (21 September 2018) was on peacekeeping performance and requested the Secretary- General to present by March 2019 the revised strategy to double the number of women in military and police contingents of UN peacekeeping operations by 2020. S/RES/2242 (13 October 2015) welcomed the commitment of the Secretary-General to prioritise the appointment of a greater number of women to senior leadership positions. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8407 (20 November 2018) was an open debate on strengthening peacekeeping operations in Africa.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Women in Peacekeeping consistent with one of the priorities that that women play a key role in integrating behalf of the Nordic countries), Peru, and France and Germany outlined for their “joint gender perspectives in peacekeeping opera- the Philippines—noted the importance of presidencies” for March and April: the role of tions, which enhances their effectiveness. women’s participation in peacekeeping oper- women in conflict situations, including their During the Council’s most recent thematic ations. However, in spite of broad support for protection and their empowerment. debate on peacekeeping on 20 November increasing the percentage of women in peace- The importance of women’s participation 2018, which focused on strengthening peace- keeping, some member states have concerns in peacekeeping operations is highlighted by keeping operations in Africa, several member that they may have difficulty meeting goals set a wide range of member states both on and states—for example, Canada, Djibouti, Esto- by the revised strategy, given the composition off the Council. These members recognise nia, Namibia, Nigeria, Norway (speaking on of their armed forces.

Sudan/South Sudan

Expected Council Action not extended in April (see our What’s In Blue fully and address the current lack of prog- In April, the Council is expected to receive a story of 14 November 2018). ress towards a political solution. This could briefing on the UN Interim Security Force On 14 March, as requested in resolution take the form of a technical rollover of sup- for Abyei (UNISFA) and on Sudan/South 2438, Council members received a confi- port for the JBVMM for one month until Sudan issues, followed by consultations. The dential note from the Secretary-General on UNISFA’s mandate renewal in May. A fur- Council is also expected to decide by 15 April border-demarcation progress, namely any ther option is for the Council to take no whether to extend the mission’s support for steps taken in implementing the seven spe- action to extend the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring cific measures contained in resolution 2438. the JBVMM, which would result in UNIS- Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 It apparently said that while there has been FA’s troop levels decreasing by 557 troops to conduct monitoring and verification activi- improvement in the JBVMM’s ability to after 15 April, as set out in resolution 2445. ties along the Sudan-South Sudan border, as fulfil its mandate as compared to previous Another key issue for the Council to con- set out in resolution 2438. years, challenges remain, including a lack sider ahead of UNISFA’s mandate renewal The mandate of UNISFA expires on 15 of attention from both governments to its in May is the appropriateness of the mis- May. smooth operation. sion’s current mandate in relation to the On 8 March, the Secretary-General situation on the ground and what modifi- Key Recent Developments informed the Council of the appointment of cations, if any, to make to the mandate and On 11 October 2018, the Security Council Parfait Onanga-Anyanga as Special Envoy force structure. This assessment is likely unanimously renewed until 15 April UNIS- for the Horn of Africa. The appointment fol- to be informed by the Secretary-General’s FA’s support for the JBVMM. However, it lowed the Secretary-General’s decision to report on UNISFA due by 15 April, as decided that as of 15 April, UNISFA’s expand the role of the Special Envoy for the requested in resolution 2445. authorised troop ceiling would decrease by Sudan and South Sudan, previously held by 541 troops (from the then authorised level of Nicholas Haysom until September 2018, to Council Dynamics 4,500) unless the Council extends the mis- cover the Horn of Africa region. As in previous years, the Council’s focus on sion’s support for the JBVMM. As in previous The Council was last briefed on UNISFA the situation in Abyei remains limited, large- resolutions, since resolution 2352 adopted on and Sudan/South Sudan issues in consulta- ly overshadowed by its ongoing engagement 15 May 2017, it said this would be the final tions on 29 October 2018. on South Sudan and Sudan (Darfur). How- extension of such support unless Sudan and ever, the upcoming renewal of UNISFA’s South Sudan “demonstrate measurable prog- Key Issues and Options support for the JBVMM in April and the ress” in certain specified areas. In this regard, The key issue for the Council is whether to mission’s mandate in May present opportu- the resolution set out seven specific border- retain UNISFA’s support of the JBVMM. nities for Council members to direct atten- demarcation measures (see our What’s In An option is to continue the mission’s sup- tion to the issue. Blue story of 11 October 2018). Resolution port based on the comparative improve- Unlike previous negotiations on resolu- 2445, which extended UNISFA’s mandate ment in the JBVMM’s ability to fulfil its tions to extend UNISFA’s support for the until 15 May and reduced the troop ceiling mandate. Another option is to retain the JBVMM, the US in October 2018 did not from 4,500 to 4,140, adjusted the number mission’s support for a shorter period as a initially seek either to reduce the mission’s of troops the mission would be reduced by means of putting pressure on the parties to authorised troop ceiling (as it did in April from 541 to 557 if support for the JBVMM is intensify efforts to implement the JBVMM 2018) or to suspend the mission’s support

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2445 (15 November 2018) extended UNISFA’s mandate until 15 May 2019. S/RES/2438 (11 October 2018) extended UNISFA’s support for the JBVMM until 15 April 2019. Secretary General’s Report S/2018/923 (16 October 2018) was on the situation in Abyei. Security Council Letters S/2019/227 (8 March 2019) was the appointment of the Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa. S/2018/955 (24 October 2018) set out the functions of the Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Sudan/South Sudan

for the JBVMM (as it did in November 2017), primarily negotiated bilaterally between the status of Abyei. However, Ethiopia in par- both of which then-Council member Ethi- US and Ethiopia (UNISFA’s main troop- ticular viewed UNISFA’s presence as criti- opia and some other members successfully contributing country). The US repeatedly cal. Some members may adopt Ethiopia’s resisted. As a result, negotiations ahead of asserted that UNISFA was persisting lon- position during upcoming negotiations. It adopting resolution 2438 in October pro- ger than intended for an interim force and is unclear, however, whether the US will be ceeded comparatively smoothly. that Sudan and South Sudan were taking willing to compromise. During Ethiopia’s term on the Council in advantage of the relative stability that UNIS- The US is the penholder on Abyei. 2017 and 2018, outcomes on UNISFA were FA provides to delay attempts to resolve the

Yemen

Expected Council Action at press time, on 26 February a World Food Houthis. The clashes have centred around In April, Special Envoy Martin Griffiths is Programme-led assessment mission accessed the Kushar district, which is strategically sig- expected to brief the Council on the imple- the Red Sea mills to determine the condition nificant because if Yemeni government forc- mentation of resolutions 2451 and 2452. of grain stocks, which the UN has worried es advance to Kushar, they could threaten Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian could start rotting. Despite some spoilage Houthi supply routes between Sana’a and Affairs Mark Lowcock and General Michael and damage to the mills, it seems that food their home region of Saada. On 11 March, Lollesgaard, the chair of the Redeployment stocks can be salvaged if the UN can gain the Office of the UN Resident/Humanitarian Coordination Committee (RCC) and head further access to repair the damage and fumi- Coordinator condemned “strikes” on houses of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah gate the mills. in Kushar, which killed 12 children and ten Agreement (UNMHA), may also brief. Upon concluding a visit to Aden, UK women, according to medical sources. On 18 Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt warned on 3 March, the humanitarian relief organisation Key Recent Developments March that the Stockholm Agreement could International Refugee Council said civilian Progress has largely remained stalled in get- collapse within weeks if the sides do not hold deaths had doubled in Hajjah and Taiz gover- ting the warring Houthi rebels and Yemeni to their commitments. The weekend of 10 norates over the past three months compared government to withdraw their forces from to 11 March saw the outbreak of what was to the pre-Hodeidah ceasefire average, citing the critical port city of Hodeidah and the reported as the heaviest fighting in Hodeidah 164 people killed in Hajjah and 184 killed in nearby smaller ports of Saleef and Ras Isa since the agreement was reached at the end Taiz since the Stockholm Agreement came as set out in the December 2018 Stockholm of UN-brokered consultations in Sweden. In into effect. Agreement. Carrying forward the other two a 12 March joint statement, the ambassadors elements of the Stockholm Agreement—a of the P5 countries to Yemen said they were Human Rights-Related Developments prisoner exchange and Statement of Under- “extremely concerned” that the three parts During its 40th session, the Human Rights Coun- cil received an oral update on 20 March from the standing on Taiz for greater humanitarian of the agreement had not been implemented. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle access to the city—have also stalled. They urged both parties to begin implement- Bachelet on the human rights situation in Yemen. The impasse around Hodeidah contin- ing the latest proposal on Hodeidah “without Bachelet emphasised that the “dire human rights ued despite a 17 February agreement on a further delay and without seeking to exploit situation…merits attention”. Outlining the humani- plan to conduct the Phase 1 redeployment of the redeployments by the other side”. On tarian situation, she urged the removal of restric- tions on humanitarian supplies. forces envisioned in the original agreement 13 March, Griffiths and Lollesgaard briefed on Hodeidah. The plan set out a two-step Council members in consultations. Discussion process, with the Houthis redeploying from focused on the lack of progress on Hodeidah. Women, Peace and Security-Related Saleef and Ras Isa ports in the first step, and On 19 March, Griffiths announced that Developments from Hodeidah port in the second. In the sec- discussions with both parties had led to “sig- On 4 March, the Informal Expert Group on Women, Peace and Security convened a meeting ond step, both parties would also withdraw nificant progress towards an agreement to with Council members on the situation in Yemen. forces from the frontline area of the so-called implement” the Phase 1 redeployments and Griffiths briefed the expert group by video tele- Kilo 8 triangle in Hodeidah city in a manoeu- that operational details would be presented to conferencing, joined by experts from his office vre that would allow UN access to the Red the RCC for endorsement shortly. and the UN Country Team. During the meet- Sea mills, which hold enough grain for 3.7 The conflict has continued in other areas ing several members apparently asked how to increase the involvement of women in the talks million people for a month but have been of the country. Particularly heavy fighting has beyond an advisory role to the Special Envoy and inaccessible since October last year. continued in the north-western Hajjah gov- in the implementation of the Stockholm agree- While no redeployments have occurred ernorate between the Hajour tribe and the ment, among other issues.

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2456 (26 February 2019) extended the Yemen sanctions regime for an additional year. S/RES/2452 (16 January 2019) established UNMHA for an initial period of six months. S/RES/2451 (21 December 2018) endorsed the agreements reached during consultations held in Sweden. Security Council Press Statement SC/13713 (22 February 2019) called for the immediate implementation of the Phase 1 redeployment of forces under the Hodeidah agreement.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Yemen

Key Issues and Options impasse continues, the Council could adopt a throughout Yemen are among the challenges Implementing the Stockholm Agreement presidential statement or a resolution to exert for addressing the crisis. remains a key issue. UN officials have reg- pressure on the parties to follow through on A looming issue is the risk of instability in ularly highlighted that progress has been their commitments from Stockholm. southern Yemen, which leaders of the South- impeded by a deep mistrust between the par- Organising a new round of consultations ern Transitional Council (STC) have said is ties. This includes the Houthis’ concern that between the parties on a broader political solu- possible if the STC is not included as a for- measures to redeploy, including de-mining of tion to the conflict has been delayed until the mal participant in peace talks. roads, could make them vulnerable to attack Hodeidah agreement is implemented. Griffiths, from Yemeni government forces. however, has noted during recent Council Council Dynamics Since agreeing to the Phase 1 redeploy- briefings the importance of resuming such Members appear united in wanting the par- ment arrangements in February, a stum- talks. Some of the underlying challenges in ties to fulfil their commitments under the bling block has been the composition of the implementing the Hodeidah agreement repre- Stockholm Agreement. Kuwait is part of vaguely worded “local security forces” that, sent issues to be worked out in a comprehen- the Saudi Arabia-led coalition and tends to according to the Hodeidah agreement, are to sive political agreement, and the Council may champion coalition positions. It has sought to take over security responsibilities—an issue express support for initiatives to restart peace facilitate political efforts, hosting peace talks that the sides had agreed to work out later. talks if the Special Envoy seeks to move ahead in 2016 and providing aircraft to transport The Yemeni government, however, subse- with a new round of consultations. Upon the the Houthi delegation to the consultations quently insisted on resolving this question parties agreeing on a negotiating framework for in Sweden in December 2018. Belgium, the and wanted these to be its own police. By a comprehensive political solution, the Council Dominican Republic, Germany, Peru and the 13 March consultations, the Houthis may adopt a resolution endorsing this frame- Poland have been among members seeking to were apparently objecting to a proposal for work, as Griffiths has proposed. highlight issues around the humanitarian cri- addressing the matter. Despite the de-escalation around Hodei- sis and international humanitarian law. The Another issue is how much longer the dah since the Stockholm Agreement, the US often raises concerns about the role of Saudi Arabia-led coalition, which backs the humanitarian situation remains catastrophic. Iran, which it views as having a destabilising Yemeni government, will continue waiting More than 24 million people—80 percent effect on the region. for the Hodeidah agreement’s implemen- of the population—require aid and 10 mil- The UK is the penholder on Yemen. Peru tation before possibly resuming a military lion people are at risk of famine. Sustaining chairs the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Commit- offensive on the city. Moreover, fighting on access for commercial imports and humani- tee. The first sanctions committee mission to other fronts beyond Hodeidah governorate tarian assistance through Hodeidah port and the region since its establishment in February may jeopardise the stalled processes. If the then making sure the goods are distributed 2014 was set to depart at press time.

Sudan (Darfur)

Expected Council Action who has ruled the country for nearly three On 26 February, the US, the UK, Norway In April, the Security Council will be briefed decades, to step down. (The protests began and Canada issued a joint statement saying on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report in December 2018, sparked by food and fuel the “return to military rule does not create a on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur shortages.) The state of emergency led to conducive environment for a renewed politi- (UNAMID) as requested in resolution 2429, the federal and state governments being dis- cal dialogue or credible elections”. The state- which is due to be submitted by 9 April. Con- solved while the national and state assem- ment also noted “the ongoing detention of sultations are expected to follow the briefing. blies were maintained. Additionally, the political leaders, activists and journalists… The mandate of UNAMID expires on 30 Minister of Defence was given the role of the [and] continuing reports of unacceptable use June. First Vice-President; 18 new governors with of live fire, beating of protestors and mistreat- military and security positions were appoint- ment of detainees”. Key Recent Developments ed to replace dismissed governors; and the The Darfur peace process has again stalled On 22 February, Sudanese President Omar Sudanese Armed Forces were assigned to in the context of the ongoing protests, which al-Bashir declared a nationwide state of maintain law and order. On 11 March, the have included sporadic protests in some emergency for one year. The announce- National Legislative Assembly approved a areas of Darfur. Reportedly citing solidarity ment came in response to ongoing protests shortening of the state of emergency from with the protesters, the Justice and Equality across Sudan calling for President al-Bashir, one year to six months. Movement (JEM)/Gibril Ibrahim faction and

UN DOCUMENTS ON DARFUR Security Council Resolution S/RES/2429 (13 July 2018) renewed UNAMID’s mandate until 30 June 2019. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2018/19 (11 December 2018) was on the Secretary-General’s proposed benchmarks and indicators. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/44 (14 January 2019) was the 90-day report on UNAMID. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8468 (25 February 2019) was a briefing on UNAMID. S/PV.8490 (26 March 2019) was the quarterly briefing by the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Sudan (Darfur) the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA)/Minni sector headquarters in Nyala, Ed Daein and implementing the benchmarks. The upcom- Minawi faction revoked their December 2018 El Geneina are due to be closed by June, leav- ing strategic review, requested in resolution agreement to resume talks with the Sudanese ing the remaining 13 team sites in the greater 2429 by 1 May, is expected to further inform government in January. On 20 March, the Jebel Marra and the logistics hub in El Fash- the Council’s thinking ahead of the 30 June Sudanese opposition alliance Sudan Call er. She also said that the new mission head- expiry of UNAMID’s mandate. announced its decision to withdraw from quarters in Zalingei is fully operational while the AU High-Level Implementation Panel’s the office of the Joint Special Representative Council Dynamics Roadmap Agreement for Ending the Con- and head of UNAMID has been relocated There continue to be differences amongst flicts in Sudan, signed with the government to Khartoum. Council members in assessing the situation in 2016. in Darfur, as was again made apparent dur- On 28 January, al-Bashir declared an Sanctions-Related Developments ing the discussion following the 25 Febru- open-ended cessation of hostilities in Darfur On 12 February, the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Com- ary briefing. Several members–including mittee met with representatives of Sudan, the and Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states Belgium, France, Germany, the US and the Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Eritrea, (also known as the “Two Areas”). On 9 Feb- Ethiopia, Libya, South Sudan and Uganda to dis- UK–raised concern over the ongoing protests ruary, the SLA/Minni Minawi faction, JEM/ cuss implementation of the sanctions measures in Sudan and the national state of emergency. Gibril Ibrahim faction and two other groups and the 10 January final report of the Panel of In its statement the UK said that “political extended a unilateral cessation of hostilities in Experts. On 26 March, Ambassador Joanna Wro- instability in the Sudan and the declaration necka (Poland), chair of Committee, provided the Darfur and the Two Areas until 8 May. How- of a state of emergency naturally affect the quarterly briefing to the Council on the work of ever, there are reports of ongoing violence in the Committee, during which she expressed her situation in Darfur…[and] call into question the Jebel Marra region between the govern- intention to visit the country, at dates yet to be the Government’s commitment to delivering ment and the SLA/Abdul Wahid faction. determined. progress on human rights, the rule of law and Assistant Secretary-General for Afri- security sector reform”. Germany expressed ca Bintou Keita briefed the Council on 25 Key Issues and Options the view that these events made it “necessary February, following her joint visit to Sudan A key issue that Council members will want to look even more closely at the benchmarks from 9 to 12 February, along with Assistant to follow closely is the effect on the securi- for a withdrawal of [UNAMID], in particu- Secretary-General at the UN Development ty situation of further troop reductions and lar the promotion of human rights and fun- Programme Mourad Wahba, and Assistant implementation of the mission’s revised damental freedoms”, while France said the Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Sup- priorities as set out in resolution 2429. The withdrawal of UNAMID must be “adapted port Oscar Fernandez-Taranco. Keita told impact of recent developments, including to the situation on the ground” and should the Council of a “collective responsibility to the lack of progress in the peace process and be “gradual and cautious”. ensure that UNAMID’s exit does not create ongoing violence in the Jebel Marra area of However, Russia expressed the view that a vacuum that leads to persistent local-level Darfur, will be an additional factor. these events “have nothing to do with” the tensions or new risk factors”, adding that the A related issue is to monitor progress Council’s consideration of the situation visit served to highlight “the challenging fac- made on the proposed benchmarks and indi- in Darfur and UNAMID, saying that “it is tors that the government, UNAMID and UN cators of achievement for the exit of the mis- important to continue the process of draw- country team are facing to maintain the pace sion set out in the Secretary-General’s report ing down UNAMID’s military component”. of the transition, including in terms of the of 12 October 2018. The Council took note Other members, including China, Indonesia, availability of resources.” of these in its 11 December 2018 presidential Kuwait and South Africa, along with Russia, On UNAMID’s drawdown as set out statement “to help guide the Security Coun- highlighted the improved situation in Darfur in resolution 2429, Keita told the Council cil’s considerations on the future of UNA- and did not refer to the ongoing protests. that ten UNAMID team sites were closed MID’s mandate.”An option would be to The UK and Germany are co-penholders by December 2018 and handed over to the invite Joint Special Representative and head on the issue; Poland chairs the 1591 Sudan government, in accordance with agreements of UNAMID Jeremiah Mamabolo to brief Sanctions Committee. signed with the mission. She said the former the Council on progress and challenges in

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

Expected Council Action Mueller said that the ability to provide humani- consequences of the plan… [he hopes external In April, the Security Council is expected to tarian assistance is increasingly constrained stakeholders] will focus on the good and see hold its quarterly open debate on the Mid- because of record low funding. the possibilities of a brighter future. And if the dle East, focusing on Israel/Palestine. Spe- On 8 March, Council members met under two sides are willing to engage, they will be the cial Coordinator for the Middle East Peace “any other business” to discuss an ongoing ones to work through the tough issues.” Process Nickolay Mladenov will likely brief. disagreement between Israel and Palestine After the meeting some Council mem- There may also be a briefer from civil society. on tax collection, as requested by Indone- bers said that Greenblatt had not provided sia and Kuwait. Mladenov took part in the any details about the peace plan. Apparently, Key Recent Developments meeting. On 17 February the Israeli govern- several Council members asked Greenblatt On 7 February, Council members were briefed ment’s security cabinet announced plans to specific questions, but he repeatedly said he under “any other business” regarding Israel’s implement a law adopted by the Knesset in could not give details. decision not to renew the mandate of the 2018 to withhold approximately $139 million On 15 March, two rockets were fired from Temporary International Presence in Hebron in tax transfers to the Palestinian Authority Gaza into Tel Aviv. On 17 March, a Palestin- (TIPH). Several members of the international (PA), citing payments made by the PA to Pal- ian killed an Israeli soldier and civilian in the community, including those countries whose estinians involved in attacks against Israelis West Bank. On 21 March, President Trump citizens acted as observers, were surprised using the tax money. Israel says the payments announced via Twitter that it was time for the at the decision and shared their disapproval. encourage further violence and are used to US to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the During the meeting, the US supported the finance terrorism. Palestinian authorities Golan Heights, and officially did so in a presi- action as the sovereign right of Israel. The US argue the money is an essential welfare policy dential proclamation on 25 March. Israel took blocked adoption of a Council press statement that takes care of its citizens. According to control of the Golan Heights from Syria in condemning Israel’s action, proposed by Indo- a 1994 economic agreement, Israel collects 1967. In May 1974, the UN Disengagement nesia and Kuwait, which had also requested money on behalf of the PA and then transfers Observer Force was established through reso- the meeting. The rest of the Council was ready it. On 20 February it was reported that the PA lution 350 (1974) after increased tensions and to adopt some press elements. returned the entirety of collected tax revenue an agreed disengagement of the Israeli and Syr- On 20 February the Council held its to Israel in protest of the change in procedure. ian forces in the Golan. Since then, the situa- monthly meeting on the Middle East (Israel/ Mladenov stressed on 8 March that these tion has been in a relative stand-off. In response, Palestine). Along with the usual participation actions could have economic and security the UN and many other countries, including of Mladenov, Assistant Secretary-General for implications as well as an effect on any politi- all European members of the Council, have Humanitarian Affairs Ursula Mueller briefed cal dialogue. He again urged the Council said that they continue not to recognize Isra- the Council for the first time on Israel/Pales- to engage constructively. Most members el’s sovereignty over the territories occupied tine since 2016. In the public session, Mlade- expressed concerns about the impact of this by Israel since June 1967, including the Golan nov condemned unilateral moves by both sides disagreement on the humanitarian, security, Heights. Additionally, on 25 March a rocket that are undermining peace efforts, urged and economic situation, recalling the Oslo was fired from Gaza into a village north of Tel donors to continue their support for civil soci- Accords and urging the parties to restrain Aviv, injuring seven people. In response, Israel ety, and regretted Israel’s decision not to renew from unilateral action. However, one mem- struck what it said were Hamas targets in Gaza. the mandate of TIPH. On Palestinian recon- ber argued that the money goes to terrorists, More rockets came into Israel from Gaza, but ciliation, Mladenov said elections might be the saying that it is the Palestinian Authority’s since then there has been relative calm. only way out of the current impasse. actions that were putting their people at risk. On 26 March, Mladenov presented his Mueller said the situation remains, at its A surprise participant was Jason Green- ninth report on implementation of resolution core, a protection crisis. She noted that funding blatt, US President Donald Trump’s special 2334 (2016) to the Council. He presented a continues to decrease while needs grow. She envoy and Special Representative for Inter- written report, S/2019/251; the first since June particularly stressed the impact on children, national Negotiations. Greenblatt and Jared 2018. Mladenov said Israel has taken no steps noting that 40 children have been killed in the Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, have report- to follow the provisions laid out in the resolu- “march to return” protests since they began in edly been developing Trump’s peace plan for tion. Several members publically thanked the March 2018. She said that on multiple occa- Israel and Palestine. Greenblatt delivered the Secretariat for the second written report. sions over the past year, Gaza health services US statement on the tax issue and after those were at the risk of shutting down because of a discussions spoke briefly about the peace plan. Human Rights-Related Developments lack of electricity. While the humanitarian situ- Earlier in the week, in an interview with the During its 40th session, the Human Rights Coun- cil (HRC) held an interactive dialogue on 18 March ation in the West Bank is less acute, she noted Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Greenblatt said: “It with the Special Rapporteur on human rights in the growing pressures faced by families in Area really is up to the Israelis and the Palestinians; the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967, C, an administrative division of the West Bank. they’re the ones who will have to live with the Michael Lynk, and considered his report (A/ HRC/40/73). The HRC also held an interactive

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST (ISRAEL/PALESTINE) Security Council Resolution S/RES/2334 (23 December 2016) condemned Israeli settlements and called for the Secretary-General to brief the Council quarterly on implementation of the resolution; it was adopted with 14 votes in favour and a US abstention. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/251 (20 March 2019) was the latest report on the implementation of the resolution 2334, relating to Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. It was the first written report since June 2018. S/2018/614 (18 June 2018) was the latest report on the implementation of resolution 2334, relating to Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. Security Council Letter S/2018/1150 (21 December 2018) was from 13 members of the Council, including outgoing and incoming elected members, reiterating the request that the Secretary- General’s quarterly report on Israel/Palestine be provided in written form, rather than orally.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Middle East (Israel/Palestine) Security Council Report Staff Karin Landgren Executive Director dialogue with the independent international com- in the past. This proposal is expected to face Joanna Weschler mission of inquiry to investigate all alleged viola- heavy resistance from the US. Deputy Executive Director tions and abuses of international humanitarian law Another issue for Council members is the Shamala Kandiah Thompson and international human rights law in the Occu- Deputy Executive Director pied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusa- continued silence by the US on its peace plan. lem, particularly in the occupied Gaza Strip, in the Depending on the US timetable, the peace Paul Romita Senior Policy Analyst context of the military assaults on the large-scale plan could be announced before the Coun- civilian protests that began on 30 March 2018, cil’s open debate in April, though it will more Victor Casanova Abos Policy Analyst whether before, during or after, and considered likely be announced around June. Council the commission’s final report (A/HRC/40/74). Teale Harold The HRC also considered the reports of the members, and the wider UN community, Policy Analyst High Commissioner for Human Rights on the may need to be ready to address it. Lindiwe Knutson implementation of HRC resolutions S-9/1 and Policy Analyst S-12/1 (A/HRC/40/39); the implementation of Council Dynamics HRC resolution 37/36 (A/HRC/40/42); and HRC Vladimir Sesar After US Ambassador Nikki Haley left her Policy Analyst resolution 37/37 (A/HRC/40/43). Furthermore, it post at the end of 2018, there were questions considered the report of the High Commission- Eran Sthoeger er on the database of all business enterprises as to how her departure would affect US state- Policy Analyst involved in the activities detailed in paragraph ments on this matter. Would the US return to Vanessa Tiede 96 of the report of the independent international addressing Israel/Palestine during the quar- Policy Analyst fact-finding mission to investigate the implications terly open debates as was done during the Benjamin Villanti of the Israeli settlements on the civil, political, eco- Obama administration or would it continue Policy Analyst nomic, social and cultural rights of the Palestinian people throughout the Occupied Palestinian Ter- to use the meetings to focus on what it views as Robbin VanNewkirk Website Manager ritory, including East Jerusalem (A/HRC/40/40). Iran’s destabilising influence in the region? As On 22 March, the HRC adopted the following most countries expected, the practice of focus- Audrey Waysse Operations Manager four resolutions submitted by Pakistan on behalf of ing on Iran and terrorism in the Middle East the Organization of Islamic Cooperation: “Ensur- continues. January’s open debate once again Maritza Lopez ing accountability and justice for all violations of Administrative Assistant international law in the Occupied Palestinian Ter- highlighted the stark differences between the Joëlle Santos ritory, including East Jerusalem” (A/HRC/40/L.25), US and other members on this file. Research Assistant by 23 to 8 votes with 15 abstentions; “Right of Indonesia and South Africa, who joined the Palestinian people to self-determination” (A/ the Council in 2019, have been active on this Security Council Report is a non- HRC/40/L.26), by 41 to 3 votes with 2 absten- file. Kuwait and Indonesia have jointly called profit organisation supported by the tions; “Human rights situation in the Occupied Governments of Australia, Austria, Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem” for both meetings and products on Israel/ Belgium, Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, (A/HRC/40/L.27), by 39 to 3 votes, with 5 absten- Palestine. During the meeting in February, Indonesia, Ireland, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, tions; and “Israeli settlements in the Occupied Pal- Kuwait, Indonesia and South Africa spoke in Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New estinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and in Zealand, Norway, Republic of Korea, the open chamber (along with Côte d’Ivoire Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the occupied Syrian Golan” (A/HRC/40/L.28), by and Equatorial Guinea), while Kuwait and Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, 32 to 5 votes, with 10 abstentions. Turkey and United Arab Emirates, South Africa took the opportunity to call and Carnegie Corporation and the again for at least two written reports on the MacArthur Foundation. Key Issues and Options status of the implementation of resolution Design Point Five, NY There has been little progress on this file and, 2334. Indonesia, Kuwait, and South Africa Security Council Report in fact, Mladenov has warned the Coun- also spoke out against the decision of Israel 711 Third Avenue, Suite 1501 cil every month that there could be serious to not renew TIPH’s mandate. New York NY 10017 repercussions because of the lack of Council Several Council members continue to call Telephone +1 212 759 6394 unity and action. Each month, the Council is for written reports in advance of the quar- Fax +1 212 759 4038 Web securitycouncilreport.org faced with recurring issues, including repeat- terly briefing on the implementation of reso- whatsinblue.org ed violations of resolution 2334, violence lution 2334. Apart from one written report Follow @SCRtweets on Twitter against civilians, provocative actions and produced in June 2018, these reports have inflammatory rhetoric, the difficult promo- only been conveyed orally. The sole written tion of intra-Palestinian reconciliation, and report was prompted by a letter submitted by the humanitarian needs of Gaza. ten Council members—Bolivia, China, Côte It seems unlikely that any outcome will be d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, France, Kazakh- decided, given the inability to adopt an out- stan, Kuwait, the Netherlands, Peru and Swe- come on 7 February regarding the TIPH man- den—on 14 May 2018 requesting the quar- date. Nevertheless Kuwait, before it leaves the terly reports to be in writing. This call was Council at the end of the year, may continue repeated in another letter on 21 December to push for various outcomes. For example, signed by 13 members, including both outgo- after the 7 February meeting, Kuwait said it ing and incoming elected members; Germany would explore having a Council mission to and the Dominican Republic were not signa- the region. Other members had suggested this tories, however.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019