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April 2019 Forecast.Indd April 2019 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: Chairing the Security Council’s Subsidiary Bodies The “joint presidencies” of France and Ger- There will also be a briefing on the Non-Pro- 3 Status Update since our many continue in April as Germany assumes liferation Treaty (NPT) ahead of the 2020 review March Forecast the Council presidency. The role of women in conference chaired by Maas with expected brief- 5 Women, Peace and conflict situations, international humanitarian ings by the Director General of the International Security law and disarmament, all stated priorities of the Atomic Energy Agency Yukiya Amano and Under- 6 Rule of Law/ ”joint presidencies”, feature strongly in April’s Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs Izumi International programme of work. Nakamitsu. Humanitarian Law/ The month will start with a briefing on strength- The Council is expected to renew the man- Protection of Civilians ening respect for international humanitarian law, dates of the UN missions in Haiti (MINUJUSTH) 7 Non-Proliferation presided over by German Foreign Minister Heiko and in Western Sahara (MINURSO) in April. The Maas. Anticipated briefers include ICRC Presi- Council will hold a debate on Haiti prior to the 8 Haiti dent Peter Maurer, Under-Secretary-General for renewal of MINUJUSTH. There will be a TCC 9 Syria Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and Naz meeting and consultations ahead of the renewal 11 Briefing by the High Modirzadeh, Director, Harvard Law School Pro- of MINURSO planned for the end of the month. Commissioner for gram on International Law and Armed Conflict. Regarding African issues, the Council will Refugees Ahead of this briefing there will be an Arria-formula discuss developments in relation to UNISFA in 11 Western Sahara meeting on protecting humanitarian and medical Abyei and Sudan/South Sudan relations. The 13 Colombia personnel in conflict organised by France. Council is also expected to decide whether to 14 Women in UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filip- extend UNISFA’s support to the Joint Border Peacekeeping po Grandi is expected to provide a briefing on Verification and Monitoring Mechanism. There 15 Sudan/South Sudan the current state of refugees worldwide and the will be a briefing and consultations on UNAMID displacement aspect of various conflicts on the in Darfur. 16 Yemen Council agenda. In addition to the quarterly open debate on 17 Sudan (Darfur) There will be three open debates: on women in Israel/Palestine, Middle East issues that will be 19 Middle East (Israel/ peacekeeping; on fighting and preventing sexual considered include: Palestine) violence in conflict situations; and the quarterly • Syria, the monthly briefings on the humanitar- open debate on Israel/Palestine. Maas will preside ian situation, the political process and the use over the debate on sexual violence in conflict dur- of chemical weapons; and ing which the Secretary-General’s annual report • Yemen, an update on the implementation of on this problem will be presented. Secretary-Gen- resolution 2452, which established the UN eral António Guterres and Special Representa- Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement tive on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Pat- (UNMHA). ten are expected to participate, as are the 2018 A briefing followed by consultations on the Nobel Peace Prize Laureates Dr. Denis Mukwe- Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Ver- ge and Nadia Murad and international human ification Mission in Colombia is also anticipated. rights lawyer Amal Clooney. The open debate on Following the visiting mission to Mali and peacekeeping will focus on the importance of and Burkina Faso in March, the Council will be the need for increasing women’s participation in closely watching developments there, as well as in peacekeeping operations and integrating gender Burundi, Myanmar and the Democratic Republic 28 March 2019 perspectives into the work of these operations, of the Congo. This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. with a briefing by Guterres. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Chairing the Security Council’s Subsidiary Bodies In 2016, the General Assembly brought for- distribution of labour within the Council, topics issued in 2014 and 2015, changed the ward the election of Security Council mem- arguing that the P5 should share the burden process of the P5 matching elected members bers from October to June. This has, in turn, of chairing the subsidiary bodies. to subsidiary bodies. sparked moves to change the process and tim- At present, all subsidiary bodies other In 2016, the first year of early elections to ing of appointing chairs of the Council’s sub- than the Military Staff Committee, which is the Council, Japan as chair of the IWG decid- sidiary bodies, of which there are now more composed solely of P5 members, are chaired ed that the IWG should consider how the new- than 20. With the end of the Cold War, during by elected members. This wasn’t always the ly elected members could best take advantage which period only two sanctions committees case. Permanent members have served as of the extended pre-Council period to prepare were set up (Rhodesia and South Africa), the initial chairs of newly-established subsidiary themselves for the demands of their two-year Council in the early 1990s began establishing bodies: the UK chaired the 1267 Al-Qaida term, with the goal of issuing a presidential numerous sanctions committees and work- Sanctions Committee in 1999 and the 1373 note on this matter by the June election. ing groups. Elected members have chaired Counter-Terrorism Committee from 2001 Through many drafts of this note, the P5 most of these bodies, appointed by perma- to 2003; France chaired the Working Group resisted the proposal that the chairs of the nent members (the P5) through an informal on Children and Armed Conflict from 2005 subsidiary bodies would be decided through process that would unfold late each year and to 2008; and the US served as co-chair with a process facilitated by the president of the sometimes continue well into the following Slovakia in 2006 of the Ad Hoc Committee Security Council. This issue eventually led January (in 2010, until 31 January). on Mandate Review to conduct the review to bilateral consultations between two mem- Not knowing in advance which subsidiary of Security Council mandates called for by bers, New Zealand and the US. The compro- bodies a new member would chair left insuf- the 2005 World Summit outcome document. mise formula found in the note issued on 15 ficient time to prepare—either to secure the Furthermore, several subsidiary bodies cur- July was that the appointment of subsidiary right expertise within their teams, or even to rently have permanent members serving as bodies’ chairs “will be facilitated jointly by have a proper handover from the exiting chair. vice-chairs. Since 2007, Russia has been vice- two members of the Security Council in full Permanent members opposed several efforts chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State cooperation.” The unwritten understanding aimed at changing the practice, but in 2016, in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) and was that the two members in question would the new election timetable prompted Council Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, and, since be the chair of the IWG and one permanent members to agree on several new practices 2011, of the 1988 Taliban Sanctions Com- member (S/2016/619). for the incoming members’ longer prepara- mittee. This has also been the case for the UK In 2016 and 2017, the chairs’ appoint- tory period, including an earlier and more on the 1540 Weapons of Mass Destruction ment process worked reasonably well. In consultative process of appointing the chairs Committee since 2005, and for both France 2018, the ten elected members and the five of Council subsidiary bodies. and Russia on the 1373 Counter-Terrorism incoming delegations addressed a joint let- Now, two Council members—one perma- Committee since 2008 and the 1566 Working ter to the president of the Security Council nent, the other the elected member chairing Group since 2013. The UK has been the vice- highlighting, among other issues, “the need the Informal Working Group on Documenta- chair of the Working Group on Peacekeeping for fair burden-sharing and an equal distri- tion and Other Procedural Questions (IWG), Operations since 2013. bution of work amongst all members of the the subsidiary body dedicated to Council Before 2018, there had already been calls Security Council, including its permanent working methods—conduct consultations on the P5 to chair subsidiary bodies. In mid- members” (S/2018/1024). The letter had with the current and incoming Council 2012, Portugal, as chair of the IWG, circu- no immediate impact, but the IWG, cur- members with the aim of having the appoint- lated a draft note by the president on the rently led by Kuwait, took up this issue in ments in place by the beginning of October. appointment of Council subsidiary body early 2019 and has been discussing it at press This process has been used three times, and chairs, which said that the process “should ... time. Among the draft notes by the president the 1 October target has been missed each ensure a balanced representation of all Coun- that the group has been working on is one year. In 2016 and 2017, the appointments cil members as Chairpersons of subsidiary on the chairs’ selection process that reaffirms were finalised on 31 and 6 October, respec- bodies”. After months of negotiation, the the need for the process to be conducted in a tively, while in 2018 the appointments were IWG agreed on a short note in December balanced, transparent, efficient, and inclusive agreed in late November.
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