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Dd4f15bedefb221e852572e 1 June 2007, N°46 Board of Trustees Co-Chairs CrisisWatch: Christopher Patten Thomas Pickering summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information President and CEO sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); Gareth Evans assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; Executive Committee alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly Cheryl Carolus escalated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may Maria Livanos Cattaui* in fact be both); and Yoichi Funabashi summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month. Frank Giustra Stephen Solarz CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including George Soros the resources of some 130 staff members across five continents, who already report on nearly 60 of the Pär Stenbäck situations listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. *Vice-Chair To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and resources page at www.crisisgroup.org. Morton Abramowitz Adnan Abu-Odeh Kenneth Adelman Ersin Arioglu May 2007 Trends Shlomo Ben-Ami Deteriorated Situations Improved Situations Lakhdar Brahimi Ethiopia (p.2) Northern Ireland (UK) (p.9) Zbigniew Brzezinski Israel/Occupied Territories (p.10) Kim Campbell Lebanon (p.11) Naresh Chandra Pakistan (p.6) Joaquim Alberto Chissano Victor Chu Wesley Clark Unchanged Situations Pat Cox Afghanistan (p.5), Albania (p.7), Algeria (p.11), Armenia (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bahrain (p.11), Uffe Ellemann-Jensen Bangladesh (p.5), Basque Country (Spain) (p.9), Belarus (p.9), Bolivia (p.10), Bosnia & Mark Eyskens Herzegovina (p.7), Burundi (p.2), Cameroon (p.3), Central African Republic (p.2), Chad (p.2), Joschka Fischer Chechnya (Russia) (p.8), Colombia (p.10), Côte d’Ivoire (p.3), Cyprus (p.9), Democratic Republic Leslie H. Gelb of Congo (p.2), Ecuador (p.10), Egypt (p.12), Ethiopia/Eritrea (p.3), Fiji (p.7), Georgia (p.8), Carla Hills Guinea (p.3), Haiti (p.10), India (non-Kashmir) (p.5), Indonesia (p.6), Iran (p.11), Iraq (p.11), Lena Hjelm-Wallén Kashmir (p.5), Kazakhstan (p.4), Kosovo (p.8), Kyrgyzstan (p.5), Liberia (p.4), Macedonia (p.8), Swanee Hunt Mali (p.4), Mauritania (p.12), Moldova (p.9), Morocco (p.12), Myanmar/Burma (p.7), Nagorno- Anwar Ibrahim Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.9), Nepal (p.5), Niger (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), North Caucasus (non- Asma Jahangir Chechnya) (p.8), North Korea (p.6), Philippines (p.7), Republic of Congo (p.2), Rwanda (p.2), Saudi Arabia (p.11), Senegal (p.4), Serbia (p.8), Sierra Leone (p.4), Somalia (p.3), Somaliland Nancy Kassebaum Baker (p.3), Sudan (p.3), Sri Lanka (p.6), Syria (p.11), Taiwan Strait (p.6), Tajikistan (p.5), Thailand James V. Kimsey (p.7), Timor-Leste (p.7), Tonga (p.7), Turkey (p.9), Turkmenistan (p.5), Ukraine (p.9), Uganda Wim Kok (p.2), Uzbekistan (p.5), Venezuela (p.10), Western Sahara (p.12), Yemen (p.11), Zimbabwe (p.3) Ricardo Lagos Joanne Leedom-Ackerman June 2007 Watchlist Mark Malloch Brown Ayo Obe Conflict Risk Alerts Conflict Resolution Christine Ockrent Opportunities Victor Pinchuk Pakistan Samantha Power Fidel V. Ramos Ghassan Salamé Douglas Schoen Thorvald Stoltenberg Ernesto Zedillo Crisis Group Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 130 staff members on five continents, working Chairmen Emeritus through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Group’s approach is grounded in Martti Ahtisaari field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing George J. Mitchell practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high level advocacy. Crisis Group is co- chaired by former European Commissioner for External Relations Lord Patten of Barnes and former U.S. Ambassador and Boeing Vice President, International Relations, Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans. “Ex-rebels accuse state of reneging on deal”, IRIN, 14 May 2007. Rwanda President Paul Kagame stated intention to work with DR Congo to solve continued problem of FDLR rebels. FDLR clashed with DRC forces in North Kivu early May (see DRC CENTRAL AFRICA above). “Kagame seeks co-operation on rebels”, IRIN, 7 May 2007. Burundi Talks between government and Palipehutu-FNL to resume early June on implementing September 2006 ceasefire Uganda Talks between government and LRA in Southern agreement. Palipehutu-FNL leaders condition participation in Sudanese capital of Juba resulted in 2 May agreement on talks on recognition as political party and their allocation of comprehensive solutions to the conflict, second of 5 issues on positions within government, parliament and army. UN High agenda. Talks resumed 31 May to tackle contentious issue of Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour called for accountability and reconciliation: government reportedly seeks strengthened judiciary in visit to Bujumbura 18-23 May. LRA acknowledgement it committed atrocities and is willing to Government agreed in principle to transitional justice undergo traditional reconciliation ceremonies, while LRA wants mechanisms for crimes during 12-year civil war: no amnesty for ICC indictments of 4 leaders including Joseph Kony and war crimes, genocide, crimes against humanity and other Vincent Otti dropped before it will sign comprehensive serious violations; national consultations to follow. Donors agreement. While calm prevails in northern Uganda, LRA pledged $665 million to 3-year economic recovery plan 25 May. continues to target civilians in South Sudan, and have not “Government pledges transparency”, IRIN, 28 May 2007. assembled at Ri-Kwangba, along Sudan/DRC border, as “Burundi, UN agree on truth commission, tribunal”, Reuters, required by revised cessation of hostilities agreement. UN 23 May 2007. WFP convoy attacked in north eastern Karamoja region 30 For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°120, May leading to temporary suspension of food aid. Burundi: Democracy and Peace at Risk, 30 Nov. 2006. “Juba talks resume today”, Monitor, 31 May 2007. “WFP suspends operations in northeast after ambush”, IRIN, Reports of continued clashes Central African Republic 30 May 2007. in north west between government forces, APRD rebels and For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°124, bandits. Civilians regularly attacked and 2 aid workers Northern Uganda: Seizing the Opportunity for Peace, 26 Apr. abducted near Bozoum 19 May, released 27 May. UFDR 2007. rebels in north east agreed with UNICEF to release up to 400 child soldiers. ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo HORN OF AFRICA announced investigation into rapes and other violations during 2002-03 conflict between regime of former President Ange- Chad President Idriss Deby and Sudan’s President Omar al- Félix Patassé and former Army Chief of Staff François Bozizé. Bashir signed reconciliation agreement at 3 May summit “Kidnapped health workers released but NGOs stay away”, hosted by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah. Agreement to IRIN, 29 May 2007. stabilise Darfur and neighbouring region in Chad sees “In northwestern CAR, refugees flee bandits, rebels -- and formation of joint border force, deployment of observers and soldiers”, AFP, 23 May 2007. cooperation with AU and UN. Observers doubt sincerity as “Prosecutor opens investigation in the Central African each side continues to support proxy militias to destabilise Republic”, ICC, 22 May 2007. the other, though N’djamena asked Darfur rebels to leave capital. Chad reiterated refusal of foreign peacekeeping force Democratic Republic of Congo Congolese armed on eastern border because it fears neighbours may see foreign forces FARDC fought Rwandan FDLR rebels in Kivu, killing 40. troops as threat. Government lifted state of emergency 25 May Reprisal attacks by rebels on civilian populations 26-27 May despite continuing violence in east. killed at least 22. Insurgent Gen. Laurent Nkunda threatened to “State of emergency ends but troubles continue”, IRIN, 25 pull his troops from army units leading to increased tensions in May 2007. North Kivu. In Ituri 223 fighters of Peter Karim’s FNI militia “Complex conflict with no solution in sight”, East African, 15 joined disarmament program north west of Bunia. Independent May 2007. candidate Kengo wa Dondo, former PM of Mobutu, elected For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°111, President of Senate, beating President Kabila’s candidate. Chad: Back towards War?, 1 June 2006. “‘Rwanda rebels’ in DR Congo raid”, BBC, 28 May 2007. “Demobilisation of ex-militias slowly taking root in northeast”, Ethiopia Violence reportedly escalated in Ogaden region as IRIN, 28 May 2007. Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Ogaden National Liberation For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°44, Front (ONLF) claimed they killed up to 157 Ethiopian troops in Congo: Staying Engaged after the Elections, 9 Jan. 2007. joint attacks in east throughout month; denied by government. At least 16 killed in 2 grenade attacks in Ogaden 28 May: ONLF Republic of Congo April peace agreement between denied government accusation they were responsible. 3 New former rebel group Conseil National de Résistance (CNR) and York Times journalists held for 5 days in Ogaden region, government potentially destabilised as CNR criticised released 21 May. government’s decision to change post offered to leader “16 killed in attacks in eastern Ethiopia, say officials”, AP, 28 Frédéric Bintsangou.
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