Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-30 Manuscript under review for journal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discussion started: 11 March 2019 c Author(s) 2019. CC BY 4.0 License. Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources Ekbal Hussain1,2, John R. Elliott1, Vitor Silva3, Mabé Vilar-Vega3, and Deborah Kane4 1COMET, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK 2British Geological Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK 3GEM Foundation, Via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy 4Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, USA Correspondence to: Ekbal Hussain (
[email protected]) Abstract. More than half of all the people in the world now live in dense urban centres. The rapid expansion of cities, particu- larly in low-income nations, has enabled the economic and social development of millions of people. However, many of these cities are located near active tectonic faults that have not produced an earthquake in recent memory, raising the risk of losing the hard-earned progress through a devastating earthquake. In this paper we explore the possible impact that earthquakes can 5 pose to the city of Santiago in Chile from various potential near-field and distant earthquake sources. We use high resolution stereo satellite imagery and derived digital elevation models to accurately map the trace of the San Ramón Fault, a recently recognised active fault located along the eastern margins of the city. We use scenario based seismic risk analysis to compare and contrast the estimated damage and losses to the city from several potential earthquake sources and one past event, comprising i) rupture of the San Ramón Fault, ii) a hypothesised buried shallow fault beneath the centre of the city, iii) a deep intra-slab fault, 10 and iv) the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake.