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Deaths Involving Coronavirus (COVID-19) up to 17Th January 2021 Summary

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Deaths Involving Coronavirus (COVID-19) up to 17Th January 2021 Summary Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19 ) in Scotland Week 2 (11 to 17 January 2021) Published on 20 January 2021 This statistical report includes provisional statistics on the number of deaths associated with coronavirus (COVID-19) and the total number of deaths registered in Scotland, for week 2 of 2021 and additional monthly analysis on deaths occurring up to 31st December 2020. Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) up to 17th January 2021 Summary As of 17th January 2021 Deaths per week involving COVID-19 7448 deaths had been registered which mentioned COVID-19 650 662 The highest number of COVID-19 deaths were 527 registered in week 17 (20th to 26th April). Deaths fell 391 slightly in week 2 but as 368 week 1 figures included 336 postponed registrations from 282 279 252 earlier weeks, it may not be a 226 200 true decrease. 168 131 68 76 36 11 13 8 5 5 2 11 20 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 1 2 Week Deaths began to Trends in deaths involving COVID-19 by dates of increase in mid- occurrence and registration December Trends based on date of registration are more timely Figures based on a rolling average of 7 days. but can be unreliable at times of year when registration offices are closed due to public holidays. Registrations Registration 52.6 drop due to office closures Occurrence 46.0 and increase sharply when backlogs are cleared. The trend based on date of occurrence gives a clearer picture and shows that, after 0.0 falling in mid-November deaths began to increase again in mid-December. Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021 www.nrscotland.gov.uk Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland Data for weeks 52, 53 and 1 are affected by the Christmas Period There were fewer registrations than usual in weeks 52 and 53 due to public holidays. Week 52 contained one public holiday for 25 December, and week 53 contained two public holidays, 28 December and 1 January. As a result, death registrations were likely to be lower than the actual number of deaths that occurred in these weeks. Registrations for week 1 may be higher than normal as registrars deal with backlogs from the previous weeks, although it should be noted that there was also a public holiday in this week (4 January). Care should therefore be taken in interpreting weekly data around the turn of the year as it is affected by public holidays and won’t give a reliable indication of the trend. See page 13 for more analysis of this. Key Findings COVID deaths As at the 17th of January, there have been a total of 7,448 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate. Of the total number of deaths registered in week 2 (11 January to 17 January) there were 368 where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, a decrease of 23 from the previous week (04 January to 10 January). Of deaths involving COVID-19 in the latest week: o 66% were aged 75+ (244 deaths), and 10% were aged under 65 (38 deaths). o 53% were male (196 deaths) and 47% female (172 deaths). o There were 94 deaths in Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board area, 48 in Lanarkshire and 48 in Lothian. o At council level, the highest number of deaths occurred in Glasgow City (44), City of Edinburgh (39), Fife (34). o The majority (65%) occurred in hospitals (240 deaths), with 97 deaths in care homes, 27 at home or in non-institutional settings and 4 in other institutions. 3 © Crown Copyright 2020 All-cause deaths and excess deaths Measuring excess deaths in 2021 Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the current year to the five year average from previous years. This average is based on the actual number of death registrations recorded for each corresponding week in the previous five years. Moveable public holidays, when registration offices are closed, affect the number of registrations made in the current week and in the corresponding weeks in previous years. Usually, the previous five years are used to compare against the most recent year to calculate excess deaths. In 2020, excess deaths were measured by comparing the 2020 figure against the average for 2015-2019. For 2021 we would generally calculate excess deaths by comparing the 2021 figure against the average for 2016-2020. As excess deaths are a key measure of the effect of the pandemic, it is not appropriate to compare the 2021 figure against the 2016-2020 average as that average will be affected by the pandemic with higher deaths in Spring 2020. We have therefore decided to continue to use the 2015-2019 average to measure excess deaths in 2021. The provisional total number of deaths registered in the calendar year 2020 (1st January to 31st December) was 64,08 4. This compares to an average of 57,760 over the previous five years (2015-2019) meaning that there were 6,324 excess deaths. The provisional total number of deaths registered in Scotland in week 2 of 2021 (11 January to 17 January) was 1,534. The average number of deaths registered in the corresponding week over the period 2015-2019 was 1,560, so there were 26 (2%) fewer deaths registered in week 2 of 2021 compared to the average. In week 2 there were 65 fewer deaths in care homes (18% below average), 101 excess deaths at home or in non-institutional settings (25% above average) and 62 fewer deaths in hospitals (8% below average). There were 26 fewer deaths across all locations than the average for the latest week. The number of deaths where COVID-19 was the underlying cause was 327. Deaths from respiratory causes (-144), circulatory causes (-78), cancer (- 60) and dementia (-56) were all lower than average for this time of year. 4 © Crown Copyright 2020 Monthly analysis – deaths occurring between March and December The age-standardised death rate for deaths involving COVID-19 which occurred between March and December was 155 per 100,000 people. Age-standardised rates for males were significantly higher than for females (191 compared with 128 per 100,000 people in March to December combined). After adjusting for age, people living in the most deprived areas were 2.2 times as likely to die with COVID-19 as those in the least deprived areas. The size of this gap has ranged between 2.1 and 2.3 over the period of the pandemic. Of the 6,834 deaths involving COVID-19 between March and December 2020, 93% (6,372) had at least one pre-existing condition. The most common main pre-existing condition was dementia and Alzheimer’s, accounting for 28% of all deaths involving COVID-19. Glasgow City had the highest age-standardised death rate of all council areas, followed by West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire and Midlothian. Highland, Moray and Dumfries and Galloway had the lowest rates (in addition to Na h- Eileanan Siar, Orkney and Shetland whose numbers were too low to calculate rates) 5 © Crown Copyright 2020 Figure 1: Weekly deathsFigure involving 1: Weekly COVID-19 deaths in Scotland, involving week COVID 12 2020- 19to weekin Scotland 2 2021 700 60 662 600 50 500 40 400 391 368 30 Deaths 300 282 279 230 20 200 10 100 36 25 11 0 0 Week 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 1 2 6 © Crown Copyright 2020 Why are the NRS number of deaths different from the Scottish Government daily updates? Put simply - they are two different measures that each have a valuable role in helping to monitor the number of deaths in Scotland involving COVID-19. Scottish Government daily updates These are provided by Health Protection Scotland (HPS) and count: all people who have had a positive test for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of their first positive test. These are important because they are available earlier, and give a quicker indication of what is happening day by day and are broadly comparable with the figures released daily for the UK by the Department for Health and Social Care. NRS weekly death totals The figures in this publication count: all deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate by the doctor who certified the death. This includes cases where the doctor noted that there was suspected or probable coronavirus infection involved in the death. As a result these weekly totals are likely to be higher than the daily figures - because the daily updates only include those who tested positive for the virus. Using the complete death certificate allows NRS to analyse a lot of information, such as location of death and what other health conditions contributed to the death. 7 © Crown Copyright 2020 Figure 2 illustrates the differences between the two sets of figures. In the early stages, the figures were closely aligned but over time they diverged with the NRS figure higher than the HPS figure. This is due to the inclusion of probable and suspected COVID deaths whereas the HPS figure only includes deaths of those who had tested positive for the virus. As the HPS figures count people who died within 28 days of their first positive test, in the more recent period the NRS figures may pick up people who tested positive but died more than 28 days later. Figure 2: Cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Scotland using Figure 2: Cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Scotland using different data sources different data sources 2020 and 2021 2020-2021 8,000 7,448 7,000 HPS 6,000 NRS 5,305 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Cumulative number of deaths of number Cumulative 1,000 0 15/03/2020 22/03/2020 29/03/2020 05/04/2020 12/04/2020 19/04/2020 26/04/2020 03/05/2020 10/05/2020 17/05/2020 24/05/2020 31/05/2020 07/06/2020 14/06/2020 21/06/2020 28/06/2020 05/07/2020 12/07/2020 19/07/2020 26/07/2020 02/08/2020 09/08/2020 16/08/2020 23/08/2020 30/08/2020 06/09/2020 13/09/2020 20/09/2020 27/09/2020 04/10/2020 11/10/2020 18/10/2020 25/10/2020 01/11/2020 08/11/2020 15/11/2020 22/11/2020 29/11/2020 06/12/2020 13/12/2020 20/12/2020 27/12/2020 03/01/2021 10/01/2021 17/01/2021 How do these weekly death figures compare with those produced across the rest of the UK? The figures are produced using same definition as those published by the ONS (for England and Wales) and NISRA (for Northern Ireland), so are broadly comparable.
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