Paradoxes in presidential approval Newsmakers Love the Sinner

By David M. Alpern

First of two parts

ithout taking anything away from the strong leadership W demonstrated by President Bush in the nation’s new war on terror- ism, the 31-point jump in his job-ap- proval rating immediately after Septem- ber 11, and its subsequent rise to the 90% zone, is unprecedented in quantity but not in kind.

A rally-round effect following interna- tional crises has boosted the poll ratings of previous presidents, including Bush’s fa- David M. Alpern was formerly a Newsweek senior editor ther, who gained 14 points after the Iraqi and director of the Newsweek Poll, which is conducted by invasion of Kuwait. President Kennedy Princeton Survey Research Associates. He continues as gained 13 points during the Cuban mis- a contributing editor to Newsweek On Air, the magazine’s sile confrontation. And even Jimmy weekly radio and internet program. This series of articles Carter’s rating rose 19 points at the start of is adapted from a January 2002 presentation prepared the Iran hostage crisis. This phenomenon for the Media Fellowship program at The Hoover Insti- is well-documented and much discussed tution, Stanford University. by political scientists and commentators.

Public Perspective, November/December 2002 17 Arguably more remarkable, I find, is security, personal safety and civil 29, 28% thought so, and only about the rise in approval ratings for Presi- liberties, the roots of terrorism, and the same number wanted to see him dent Bill Clinton after the Monica the not always predictable conse- indicted and tried in court after his Lewinsky scandal broke in mid-Janu- quences of waging war against it, at second term had ended. Three in ten ary 1998, and their continued cruis- home and abroad. said he should simply be censured, and ing at that altitude throughout the four in ten said impeachment itself was long process leading to and through Both stories are revealing in what they punishment enough. impeachment. After an initial drop, have to tell us about Americans’ rela- from 61% to 54% in a January 22-24 tionships with their presidents. Indeed, 71% in a February 11-12 poll Newsweek survey, Clinton’s job rat- said the Lewinsky scandal and impeach- ing rocketed 17 points to 70% in hat with the scuttlebutt ment were what Clinton would always one week, as shown by a January 29- about Gennifer Flowers and be remembered for, that there was noth- 30 poll. WPaula Jones, Bill Clinton ing he could do as president to give was already seen as a flawed character himself a more positive legacy. t remained in the 60% zone, with in January 1998. Opinion had long most Americans at most times op- been almost evenly divided on whether he explanation for such a para- Iposing his resignation or removal he had the honesty and integrity people doxical view of Clinton came, I from office. And that, our polls expected in a president. In our first Tthink, in our earliest poll on showed, was despite the fact that the (January 22-24) poll after the Lewinsky L’Affair Lewinsky, the January 22-24, nation saw him as an adulterous per- story broke, that balance shifted de- 1998 survey. In general, we asked, is it jurer without the moral character they finitively against Clinton. more important to you that the presi- expected in a president. dent is someone whose personal char- A year later, however, after the im- acter you and your family can respect, Both these periods of recent presiden- peachment trial ended in acquittal, or someone who can effectively carry tial history have been trying in differ- Clinton’s job approval rating stood at out policies that are good for the coun- ent ways for many Americans, not just 66%, having never dropped lower than try? A plurality of more than two to the chief executives involved. But poll- 58%, though a plurality of more than one said effectiveness was more impor- ing has also shown a notable sophisti- four in ten in that February survey said tant. By the time of our August 13-14 cation of public opinion as events have the year’s developments and disclo- survey, an absolute majority (53%) forced people to evaluate complex is- sures made them think less of the presi- thought so. sues and their own reactions. dent; fewer than half that number thought more of him. Sixty-four per- Focusing more sharply on character With Clinton, cent thought he had committed per- and morality issues a month into the beyond the tan- jury in his federal grand jury testi- scandal, we asked in a February 5-6 talizing trivia of unlit cigars and stained dresses, there were seri- “In L’Affair Lewinsky, Americans distinguished between ous questions of what they found extraordinarily interesting and what private morality, public effective- they felt to be really important for the country.” ness, legal rights, and journalistic sensationalism. John Zaller wrote mony, and a five to three plurality one particularly good thought he had obstructed justice in survey about marital infidelity, and study of the period, “Monica the Paula Jones case. found a virtually even split on whether Lewinsky’s Contribution to Political Americans should even consider it in Science,” which appeared in Political Still, fewer than a third of those sur- judging how well a president is han- Science and Politics in 1998. veyed during the impeachment trial dling his job. Interestingly, foreshad- believed Clinton should be convicted owing Clinton’s enduring female sup- Today with President Bush we are and removed from office. In a port, most women (52%) were against grappling with questions of national Newsweek poll conducted January 28- taking adultery into account in evalu- Continued on page 42

18 Public Perspective, November/December 2002 Love the Sinner Continued from page 18

ating a president, while most men nother factor in Clinton’s favor September 1998, and by about five to (52%) were in favor. was the public’s conclusion that four, the public had concluded that ALewinsky was more aggressor the charges against Clinton were pri- In that same survey we found that than victim. By the time of Monica’s marily a partisan effort to discredit nearly two-thirds of Americans March 1999 TV interview with Bar- him rather than a calling to account thought the increased attention being bara Walters, Americans by two to one for high crimes and misdemeanors— given to the private lives of public saw her as going after the president, the only constitutional basis for im- officials was a “bad thing.” That was not Clinton using his position to take peachment. the first such lopsided majority ever advantage of her. And, surprisingly, on a question that had split the public women held that view even a bit more ut Republican foes were not about evenly through the personal strongly than men. about to put public opinion controversies that plagued other high- Bpolls above their deep-seated profile pols such as Charles Robb, The president also benefited from the distaste for Clinton’s politics and per- Barney Frank and Jim Wright. unpopular impression made by Inde- sonality. Or, if they were concerned pendent Counsel Kenneth Starr, un- about what the polls were showing, it Some conservative social critics said that like the impression made by his prede- can only be assumed that in their zeal the acceptance of Clinton’s personal cessors during Watergate. By the end to have Clinton removed from office lapses was not a sign of political matu- of February 1998, nearly half those they misread the public’s complex rity but of moral decline. We tested that surveyed in our poll said Starr had views of the scandal. Their contin- theory in the same survey, but found gone too far in his investigating meth- ued attacks not only solidified the four in five Americans saying extra- ods, and that he should be removed president’s support but raised ques- marital sex was “always wrong”—a from office. By August, a 57% major- tions about the GOP. record high for that view in polling over ity disapproved of Starr’s methods. the past twenty-five years. What had In our survey of December 10-11, changed was the public’s perception of All in all, our polls showed that Ameri- 1998, 53% of respondents said House how often presidents have had affairs in cans distinguished between what they Republicans were too partisan in deal- the past. Forty-two percent of respon- found extraordinarily interesting—al- ing with impeachment, versus 47% dents in the February 5-6 poll said it was beit in a “Don’t-you-hate-to-look” who thought that of House Demo- very common, compared with only 24% sort of way—and what they felt to be crats. After Clinton’s Senate acquit- who thought so ten years earlier. really important for the country. By tal, a four in ten plurality in a Febru-

Figure 1 Parting of the Ways Questions: Yes, high moral Approve standards

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president? October 27-31, 1994 48% 44% April 4-5, 1995 46 51 I’m going to read you some statements. After each, please tell me whether or not each applies March 14-17, 1996 53 44 to [President Bill] Clinton. How about... he has high personal moral and ethical standards? June 27-30, 1996 — 40 August 1-5, 1996 59 45 September 3-4, 1996* — 39 Approve 80% October 7-8, 1996* 59 — Yes, high moral standards 70% 66% January 13-15, 1997 60 40 June 5-8, 1997 59 41 60% January 28-29, 1998 68 — 50% 48% February 17-18, 1998 67 28 40% March 16, 1998 63 28 44% May 12, 1998 64 24 30% July 9-12, 1998 63 29 20% August 19-21, 1998 66 — 19% August 23, 1998 — 19 10% *Asked of registered voters 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Source: Surveys by ABC News/Washington Post and ABC News, latest that of August 23, 1998.

42 Public Perspective, November/December 2002 ary 11-12 poll felt less favorably about he largest losers, though, were jority said Clinton’s failed peace ef- the Republican Party, while just over the news media. In the Febru- forts just before leaving office deserved a quarter were less favorable toward Tary 11-12, 1999 Newsweek poll, only a little blame or none at all for the the Democrats, and 50% said they barely 5% felt more favorable toward subsequent explosion of Israeli-Pales- thought less favorably of the political the media, and 56% were less favor- tinian violence. (Only 14% said they process generally. able. A similar majority had said in a deserved a lot of blame; 26% said July 1998 poll that at best they be- some blame.) But there were many losers lieved only some of what they saw, in the public esteem as a result of the scandal. Al- though only 20% said that because of the trial and ac- “Conservative social critics said that the accep- quittal they were less likely to vote for Clinton’s vice tance of Clinton’s personal lapses was not a sign president, Al Gore, in the of political maturity but of moral decline.” 2000 presidential election, that was still a problem Gore didn’t need in a race that proved so close. heard or read in the media; 11% said As for the corporate scandals, in July s for Clinton, a Janu- they believed very little. 2002, 25% said Clinton and his ad- ary 18-19, 2001poll showed his ministration deserved a lot of blame, Ajob approval still at 68% on the Seven in ten in that same survey be- compared with 69% for corporate ex- eve of his departure from office, de- lieved journalists today are more in- ecutives, 59% for corporate boards of spite new scandals involving eleventh- fluenced than their predecessors by directors and 49% for accounting firms. hour pardons and the removal of White pressure from competitors to get a House gifts. A 78% majority approved good story, by pressure from media Only 18% in that poll said George W. his handling of the economy and 66% owners for higher profits, and by the Bush and his administration deserved his handling of foreign policy. desire for celebrity and personal a lot of blame. But as the problems of wealth. Even more said that in the Wall Street and the economy drew But despite his high approval ratings, search for ratings and profits, the news more attention in subsequent months, it’s questionable that Clinton retained media had gone too far in the direc- doubts about Bush’s concern and ca- enough magic to have won himself, tion of entertainment and away from pability to handle the situation grew, had he been able to run for a third traditional reporting. and his job approval ratings slipped term. Gore actually did better than his from the stratospheric heights to which boss in a trial heat against Bush that we Of course, the clear implication is they had been taken by the September ran in our April 8, 2000 survey. Each that such sensationalism does win au- 11 attacks—from 86% at their peak of the Democrats drew 44% of the dience, ratings and financial re- down to 61% in the Newsweek poll of sample, but Bush only matched Gore— wards—meaning Americans them- August 28-29, 2002—raising the ques- foreshadowing the final vote—while selves, as willing consumers, are at tion of which issue, terrorism or the he beat Clinton with 49%. least part of the problem. economy, would be key to the elec- tions of 2002 and 2004. How will history remember President n 2002, top Republicans with the Bill Clinton? A Pew survey conducted off-year elections in mind tried to January 3-7, 2001, found a remark- Iblame Clinton for violence and able disparity. By 60% to 27%, re- terror spilling out of the Middle East, spondents thought that, in the long and for corporate scandals undermin- run, the accomplishments of his ad- ing confidence in the stock market ministration would outweigh its fail- and the economy generally. The pub- ures. Yet 74% still said he would be lic was not so sure. In a Newsweek poll In the next issue of Public Perspective: remembered most for the scandals. taken March 21-22, 2002, a 53% ma- Changing challenges for George W. Bush.

Public Perspective, November/December 2002 43