Topic 3: What’S Your Vote Worth?
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Balance of Power Senate Projections, Spring 2018
Balance of power Senate projections, Spring 2018 The Australia Institute conducts a quarterly poll of Senate voting intention. Our analysis shows that major parties should expect the crossbench to remain large and diverse for the foreseeable future. Senate projections series, no. 2 Bill Browne November 2018 ABOUT THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE The Australia Institute is an independent public policy think tank based in Canberra. It is funded by donations from philanthropic trusts and individuals and commissioned research. We barrack for ideas, not political parties or candidates. Since its launch in 1994, the Institute has carried out highly influential research on a broad range of economic, social and environmental issues. OUR PHILOSOPHY As we begin the 21st century, new dilemmas confront our society and our planet. Unprecedented levels of consumption co-exist with extreme poverty. Through new technology we are more connected than we have ever been, yet civic engagement is declining. Environmental neglect continues despite heightened ecological awareness. A better balance is urgently needed. The Australia Institute’s directors, staff and supporters represent a broad range of views and priorities. What unites us is a belief that through a combination of research and creativity we can promote new solutions and ways of thinking. OUR PURPOSE – ‘RESEARCH THAT MATTERS’ The Institute publishes research that contributes to a more just, sustainable and peaceful society. Our goal is to gather, interpret and communicate evidence in order to both diagnose the problems we face and propose new solutions to tackle them. The Institute is wholly independent and not affiliated with any other organisation. Donations to its Research Fund are tax deductible for the donor. -
Commonwealth of Australia
Commonwealth of Australia Author Wanna, John Published 2019 Journal Title Australian Journal of Politics and History Version Accepted Manuscript (AM) DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/ajph.12576 Copyright Statement © 2019 School of History, Philosophy, Religion and Classics, School of Political Science and International Studies, University of Queensland and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Commonwealth of Australia, Australian Journal of Politics and History, Volume 65, Issue 2, Pages 295-300, which has been published in final form at 10.1111/ajph.12576. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving Downloaded from http://hdl.handle.net/10072/388250 Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au Commonwealth of Australia John Wanna Turnbull’s Bizarre Departure, and a Return to Minority Government for the Morrison-led Coalition Just when political pundits thought federal parliament could not become even wackier than it had been in recent times, the inhabitants of Capital Hill continued to prove everyone wrong. Even serious journalists began referring to the national legislature metaphorically as the “monkey house” to encapsulate the farcical behaviour they were obliged to report. With Tony Abbott being pre-emptively ousted from the prime ministership by Malcolm Turnbull in 2015, Turnbull himself was, in turn, unceremoniously usurped in bizarre circumstances in August 2018, handing over the leadership to his slightly bemused Treasurer Scott Morrison. Suddenly, Australia was being branded as the notorious “coup capital of the Western democracies”, with five prime ministers in five years and only one losing the high office at a general election. -
Risks and Opportunities for the Australia–Us Alliance
AGAINST COMPLACENCY: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE AUSTRALIA–US ALLIANCE Richard Fontaine October 2016 Table of contents The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney deepens Australia’s understanding of the Foreword 01 United States through research, teaching and public Executive summary 02 engagement. Through rigorous analysis of American politics, foreign policy, economics, culture, and history, Introduction 04 the Centre has become a national resource, building Australia’s awareness of the dynamics shaping American An allied pivot to Asia 05 society — and critically — their implications for Australia. Against complacency: 07 The Centre’s Alliance 21 Program is a multi-year research Four risks to the alliance initiative that examines the historically strong Australia- United States relationship and works to address the Carpe occasionem: 14 challenges and opportunities ahead as the alliance Twelve alliance opportunities evolves in a changing Asia. The Australian Government and corporate partners Boral, Dow, News Corp Australia, The ostrich or the emu? 18 and Northrop Grumman Australia support the program’s second phase, which commenced in July 2015 and is The American election 19 focused on the following core research areas: defence and the Australian alliance and security; resource sustainability; alliance systems in Asia; and trade, investment, and business innovation. Endnotes 20 The Alliance 21 Program receives funding support from About the author 23 the following partners. Research conclusions are derived independently and authors represent their own view not those of the United States Studies Centre. United States Studies Centre Institute Building (H03) The University of Sydney NSW 2006 Alliance 21 Fellowship partner Australia Phone: +61 2 9351 7249 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @ussc Website: ussc.edu.au UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE | ALLIANCE 21 PROGRAM AGAINST COMPLACENCY: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE AUSTRALIA-US ALLIANCE Foreword In November 2014 the White House announced the is the result of those deliberations. -
Todd Farrell Thesis
The Australian Greens: Realignment Revisited in Australia Todd Farrell Submitted in fulfilment for the requirements of the Doctorate of Philosophy Swinburne University of Technology Faculty of Health, Arts and Design School of Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities 2020 ii I declare that this thesis does not incorporate without acknowledgement any material previously submitted for a degree in any university or another educational institution and to the best of my knowledge and belief it does not contain any material previously published or written by another person except where due reference is made in the text. iii ABSTRACT Scholars have traditionally characterised Australian politics as a stable two-party system that features high levels of partisan identity, robust democratic features and strong electoral institutions (Aitkin 1982; McAllister 2011). However, this characterisation masks substantial recent changes within the Australian party system. Growing dissatisfaction with major parties and shifting political values have altered the partisan contest, especially in the proportionally- represented Senate. This thesis re-examines partisan realignment as an explanation for party system change in Australia. It draws on realignment theory to argue that the emergence and sustained success of the Greens represents a fundamental shift in the Australian party system. Drawing from Australian and international studies on realignment and party system reform, the thesis combines an historical institutionalist analysis of the Australian party system with multiple empirical measurements of Greens partisan and voter support. The historical institutionalist approach demonstrates how the combination of subnational voting mechanisms, distinctly postmaterialist social issues, federal electoral strategy and a weakened Labor party have driven a realignment on the centre-left of Australian politics substantial enough to transform the Senate party system. -
Minority and Majority Governments in Federal and State/Territory
Minority and Majority Governments Name: ………………………… in Federal and State/Territory Parliaments 1. Answer the following questions: In which house is government formed? Lower What is majority government? Where a political party or a coalition of parties has a majority of the seats in the lower house. What is a minority government? Where a political party forms government but depends on the support (confidence) of other parties and/or independents as it was unable to achieve a majority of seats in the lower house in its own right. 2. Using the information in the following document https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/3681701/upload_binary/3681701.pdf (in particular, TABLE 1) determine what sort of government (either minority or majority) has currently been formed in our Federal Parliament and the 8 State/Territory Parliaments by completing the table on the reverse side of this worksheet. 3. Once you have completed the table answer these last two questions: How many minority governments are there currently in Australia? 2 How many majority governments are there currently in Australia? The Constitutional Centre of Western Australia Updated February 2019 7 2. Table to complete: Minority or Majority? Parliament Total # # of Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Political Type of of seats seats won won won won won won won won won won won party/parties Government in Lower required by by by by by by by by by by by forming formed house to form ALP LIB NATS LNP CA CLP GRN KAP PHON SFF IND Government Govt. -
1 No Eight-Year Terms for the House of Unrepresentative
1 NO EIGHT-YEAR TERMS FOR THE HOUSE OF UNREPRESENTATIVE SWILL By Malcolm Mackerras On the afternoon of Tuesday, 17 September 2019 a welcome surprise came into my e-mail system. It was an invitation to participate in a Constitutional Roundtable on fixed four-year parliamentary terms. The reason for my surprise was that the last time I was invited to be on a panel at a federal Parliament House function was on 1 March 2016 when I opposed George Williams. Being on a panel with him again would be my welcome new meeting of him. During the 45th Parliament I never received a single invitation – even though I sought to appear before the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. Reasons for the refusal of my wish are explained on my website at www.malcolmmackerras.com. On that website I explain why I call the Senate “Unrepresentative Swill”. Indeed, that is the title of my blog. I give below further information about the above- mentioned meeting of the JSCEM on the morning of 1 March 2016 at which I expressed passionate opinions. I suppose the reason why I received that spring-time 2019 surprise invitation from the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Social Policy and Legal Affairs is that my long-standing views on federal parliamentary terms are well-known. I favour no change to the present arrangements which I think are quite satisfactory. Furthermore, I deny the commonly held view that Prime Ministers have abused their power to cause an early dissolution. In my documents I have a file “Early Elections” that includes my article titled “Early General Elections for Australia’s House of Representatives”. -
Analysing the Voting Patterns of the Senate of the 45Th Australian Parliament Via Fully-Visible Boltzmann Machines Jessica Bagnall, Andrew Jones, Hien Nguyen
Analysing the voting patterns of the Senate of the 45th Australian Parliament via fully-visible Boltzmann machines Jessica Bagnall, Andrew Jones, Hien Nguyen To cite this version: Jessica Bagnall, Andrew Jones, Hien Nguyen. Analysing the voting patterns of the Senate of the 45th Australian Parliament via fully-visible Boltzmann machines. useR! 2018, Jul 2018, Brisbane, Australia. hal-01838443 HAL Id: hal-01838443 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01838443 Submitted on 13 Jul 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Change Color Theme: Analysing the voting patterns of the Senate of the 45th Australian Parliament via fully-visible Boltzmann machines This template is designed to use the built-in color themes in the newer versions of PowerPoint. Jessica Bagnall1; Dr. Andrew Jones2; Dr. Hien Nguyen1, 1Department of Mathematics & Statistics, La Trobe University, Melbourne, 2School of Mathematics & Physics, University of Queensland, Brisbane To change the color theme, select the Design tab, then select the Colors drop-down list. Method Introduction Figure 1. A network plot of the AG Our data was retrieved from the Australian Senate website, available at https://www.aph.gov.au/. -
Crisis of Trust: the Rise of Protest Politics in Australia
A crisis of trust: The rise of protest politics in Australia Grattan Institute Support Grattan Institute Report No. 2018-05, March 2018 Founding members Endowment Supporters This report was written by Danielle Wood, John Daley, and Carmela The Myer Foundation Chivers. Hugh Parsonage and Lucy Percival provided extensive National Australia Bank research assistance and made substantial contributions to the report. Susan McKinnon Foundation We would like to thank the members of Grattan Institute’s Public Policy Committee for their comments. We also thank Judith Brett, Gabrielle Affiliate Partners Chan, Raphaella Crosby, Royce Kurmelovs, Aaron Martin, Jennifer Google Rayner, Tony Ward, The Regional Australia Institute and a number of Medibank Private organisations and individuals in Emerald, Mildura and Whyalla for their helpful input. Susan McKinnon Foundation The opinions in this report are those of the authors and do not Senior Affiliates necessarily represent the views of Grattan Institute’s founding Maddocks members, affiliates, individual board members reference group members or reviewers. Any remaining errors or omissions are the PwC responsibility of the authors. McKinsey & Company The Scanlon Foundation Grattan Institute is an independent think-tank focused on Australian public policy. Our work is independent, practical and rigorous. We aim Wesfarmers to improve policy outcomes by engaging with both decision-makers and the community. Affiliates Ashurst For further information on the Institute’s programs, or to join our mailing list, please go to: http://www.grattan.edu.au/. Corrs Deloitte This report may be cited as: Wood, D., Daley, J., and Chivers, C. (2018). A crisis of trust: The rise of protest politics in Australia. -
17. the Minor Parties
17 THE MINOR PARTIES Glenn Kefford The 2019 federal election is noteworthy for many reasons. One of the defining stories should be that the ALP and the Liberal–National Coalition have been unable to draw voters back from the minor parties and Independents. Put simply, the long-term trend is away from the major parties. In this election, there was a small nationwide increase in the vote for minor parties and Independents in the House of Representatives, while in the Senate there was a modest decline. The State-level results are more varied. The Coalition lost ground in some places and maintained its vote in others. The ALP vote, in contrast, was demolished in Tasmania and in Queensland. Almost one in three Queenslanders and Tasmanians decided to support a party or candidate in the House other than the ALP or the Coalition. Across the entire country, this was around one in four (see Figure 17.1). In the Senate, Queensland and Tasmania again had the largest non–major party vote. These results are dissected in greater detail in other chapters in this volume, but they suggest that supply-side opportunities remain for parties and candidates expressing anti–major party sentiments. Put simply, the political environment remains fertile for minor party insurgents. 343 MORRISON'S MIRACLE 40 35 35.55 33.65 32.2 30 26.2 25 25 25.09 23.8 23.47 21.1 20.4 20 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.2 18.3 18.4 17.7 17.1 15.7 15.1 15 14.6 14.3 14 14.5 13.2 13.5 12 12.2 10.7 10.7 10.8 10 10 8.8 8.6 7.7 8.1 7.3 7 7.4 5 4.7 5 3.9 4.4 4.1 2.1 0 1949 1951 1955 1958 1961 1974 1975 1977 1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 House S ena te Figure 17.1 First‑preference votes for minor parties and Independents Source: Compiled with data kindly provided by Antony Green and from Australian Electoral Commission (2016 and 2019) . -
Papers on Parliament Lectures in the Senate Occasional Lecture Series, and Other Papers
Papers on Parliament Lectures in the Senate Occasional Lecture Series, and other papers Number 68 December 2017 Published and printed by the Department of the Senate Parliament House, Canberra ISSN 1031–976X (online ISSN 2206–3579) Published by the Department of the Senate, 2017 ISSN 1031–976X (online ISSN 2206–3579) Papers on Parliament is edited and managed by the Procedure and Research Section, Department of the Senate. Edited by Ruth Barney All editorial inquiries should be made to: Assistant Director Procedure and Research Section Department of the Senate PO Box 6100 Parliament House CANBERRA ACT 2600 Telephone: (02) 6277 3078 Email: [email protected] To order copies of Papers on Parliament On publication, new issues of Papers on Parliament are sent free of charge to subscribers on our mailing list. If you wish to be included on that mailing list, please contact the Procedure and Research Section of the Department of the Senate at: Telephone: (02) 6277 3074 Email: [email protected] Printed copies of previous issues of Papers on Parliament may be provided on request if they are available. Past issues are available online at: www.aph.gov.au/pops Contents Small Parties, Big Changes: The Evolution of Minor Parties Elected to the Australian Senate 1 Zareh Ghazarian Government–Citizen Engagement in the Digital Age 23 David Fricker Indigenous Constitutional Recognition: The 1967 Referendum and Today 39 Russell Taylor The Defeated 1967 Nexus Referendum 69 Denis Strangman Parliament and National Security: Challenges and Opportunities 99 Anthony Bergin Between Law and Convention: Ministerial Advisers in the Australian System of Responsible Government 115 Yee-Fui Ng Trust, Parties and Leaders: Findings from the 1987–2016 Australian Election Study 131 Sarah Cameron and Ian McAllister iii Contributors Zareh Ghazarian is a lecturer in politics and international relations in the School of Social Sciences at Monash University. -
Debunking Dreyfus on Free Speech and Freedom
Disclaimer : Nothing in this letter should be construed as threatening nor advocating unlawful acts. Suspects are innocent until the facts against them are proven and convicted in a court of justice. This does not discuss the contents of the current super-injunction. Debunking Dreyfus on Free Speech and Freedom Author: Brendan Jones Brisbane, QLD, Australia E-mail: [email protected] Being an Open Letter to ALP Shadow Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus MP QC regarding his speech to the HRC Free Speech 2014 Symposium Cc: Director-General of Security – ASIO, David Irvine (pp. 62-65) Online at: http://victimsofdsto.com/debunking-drefyus/ Page 1 of 66(218) September 10(11), 2014 NoFibs Journalist: “I’m a strong free speech advocate ... So I’m thrilled that shadow Attorney General Mark Dreyfus QC has taken a stand and wish him success in the long hard climb ahead.” 98 Brendan Jones: “Mr. Dreyfus is no advocate for free speech, but the fact that he has convinced you he is – and in just one short speech – has persuaded me he’s a first class barrister.” 98 Journalist Martin Hirst: “I loved that he rubbed their pretty little noses in it. He made the point strongly that the so-called “marketplace of ideas” is a conservative myth that bears little relation to reality.” 98 133 Brendan Jones: “All Dreyfus did was say he rejected it. He never explained why. Google "Sophistry"” 98 131 US Supreme Court Justice Benjamin Cardozo: ‘Freedom of expression is the matrix, the indispensable condition, of nearly every other form of freedom.’ US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis: “Those who won our independence believed that the final end of the State was to make men free to develop their faculties, and that in its government the deliberative forces should prevail over the arbitrary. -
The New Senate Voting System and the 2016 Election
RESEARCH PAPER SERIES, 2017–18 25 JANUARY 2018 The new Senate voting system and the 2016 election Dr Damon Muller Politics and Public Administration Section Executive summary • In 2016 the Senate voting system was changed to remove the use of group voting tickets; and to require voters to allocate six or more preferences above the line or twelve or more below the line on the ballot paper. The 2016 federal election—a double dissolution election—was the first to be conducted under the new system. • The change resulted from recommendations from an inquiry by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters into the 2013 federal election, largely in response to the number of candidates being elected to the Senate from small and unknown parties on very low first preference votes. However, the changes were only legislated late in the parliamentary term, not long before the double dissolution election was held. • A High Court challenge was launched almost immediately in response to the changes to the Senate voting system; however, the Court rapidly and comprehensively dismissed the case. • When it was introduced, the new Senate voting system was criticised for a number of perceived problems, including that most voters would continue to vote 1 above the line; that the informality rate would be high; that many more votes would exhaust and not be counted; and that small parties would have no chance of election. • None of these anticipated problems presented in the course of the 2016 election. Voters quickly adapted to the new system; informal voting rose only a small amount; and that the Australian Electoral Commission was able to implement the new system and count the votes with no major issues eventuating.