“Get used to it” Senate projections, Autumn 2018 The Australia Institute’s conducts a quarterly poll of Senate voting intention. Our analysis shows that major parties should expect the crossbench to remain large and diverse for the foreseeable future. Senate projections series, no. 1 Bill Browne May 2018 ABOUT THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE The Australia Institute is an independent public policy think tank based in Canberra. It is funded by donations from philanthropic trusts and individuals and commissioned research. We barrack for ideas, not political parties or candidates. Since its launch in 1994, the Institute has carried out highly influential research on a broad range of economic, social and environmental issues. OUR PHILOSOPHY As we begin the 21st century, new dilemmas confront our society and our planet. Unprecedented levels of consumption co-exist with extreme poverty. Through new technology we are more connected than we have ever been, yet civic engagement is declining. Environmental neglect continues despite heightened ecological awareness. A better balance is urgently needed. The Australia Institute’s directors, staff and supporters represent a broad range of views and priorities. What unites us is a belief that through a combination of research and creativity we can promote new solutions and ways of thinking. OUR PURPOSE – ‘RESEARCH THAT MATTERS’ The Institute publishes research that contributes to a more just, sustainable and peaceful society. Our goal is to gather, interpret and communicate evidence in order to both diagnose the problems we face and propose new solutions to tackle them. The Institute is wholly independent and not affiliated with any other organisation. Donations to its Research Fund are tax deductible for the donor. Anyone wishing to donate can do so via the website at https://www.tai.org.au or by calling the Institute on 02 6130 0530. Our secure and user-friendly website allows donors to make either one-off or regular monthly donations and we encourage everyone who can to donate in this way as it assists our research in the most significant manner. Level 1, Endeavour House, 1 Franklin St Canberra, ACT 2601 Tel: (02) 61300530 Email: [email protected] Website: www.tai.org.au ISSN: 1836-9014 Summary The Australia Institute routinely polls a representative sample of the Australian population on a variety of issues, including how they intend to vote at the next election. While other pollsters only ask about House of Representatives voting intention, our polling also asks specifically about Senate voting intention. In this new report series, to be released quarterly, we will present and analyse the results of these Senate voting intention polls to project the potential makeup of the Senate following one or more elections. The first edition of Senate Projections finds that, on current polling, future elections are likely to return a crossbench that is about as large and divided as the current one. A future Coalition government would have to cooperate with the Greens or multiple non-Green crossbench parties and independents and a future Labor government would have to cooperate with the Greens and multiple non-Green crossbench parties and independents. Senate projections Autumn 2018 1 Polling results The results of our April 2018 poll show a continued improvement for the Labor Party’s prospects but an upturn for the LNP at the expense of smaller parties. However, the rolling average shows an ongoing decline for the LNP from its polling high in February 2016, with the Labor Party and independents strengthening their position. One Nation has plateaued since the middle of last year, but it is still polling well above its performance in the July 2016 election. Figure 1: National Senate polling (individual results and rolling average) 45% Actual Election Liberal / National Coalition 40% Results Labor 35% Greens 30% Pauline Hanson's One Nation Nick Xenophon Team 25% Independent/Other (broad) 20% Liberal / National Coalition 15% Labor 10% Greens 5% Pauline Hanson's One Nation 0% Nick Xenophon Team Independent/Other (broad) Jun-16 Jun-17 Oct-16 Oct-17 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Aug-16 Aug-17 Note: Markers indicate the results of individual polls, with the line showing the rolling four-poll average. Note: Our polling pre-dates the change of name from “Nick Xenophon Team” to “Centre Alliance”. Our next batch of polling will ask about the Centre Alliance, and our Senate projections use the Nick Xenophon Team polling to forecast the results for the Centre Alliance. Senate projections Autumn 2018 2 Simulation Model explanation The Australia Institute conducts quarterly polling of Senate voting The Australia Institute uses a model to simulate intention by state. The most recent future Senate elections, based on inputs like four poll results for each party in polling results, historical performance, likely each state are combined in a rolling preference flows, and so on. average. As shown in the Senate results ranges below, For each of the six Senate seats the Senate is likely to retain a large and diverse available in each state (and two crossbench. Our simulations show the LNP able available in each territory) at an to achieve a majority with either the Greens or election, we either assign a party multiple non-Green crossbenchers in most guaranteed to win that seat (if that party is polling above or close to a cases. quota) or we run a simulation to see On the other hand, Labor and the Greens which party is likely to win that seat. together will not be sufficient to reach a Senate The odds are assigned based on our judgment, informed by the polling, majority. The additional cooperation of some historical performance, likely crossbenchers would be required. preference flows, and other factors. Of course, the Coalition and the Labor Party These simulations are run 1,000 voting together would have a majority without times and the results summed to get any crossbench cooperation. the percentage chance of different seat outcomes after the next Table 1: Senate results in the middle half of election and the one after. cases across 1,000 simulations For example, a party that has a 10% Party At 2016 Half- Two Half- chance in each state of winning a Senate Senates seat could win between zero and six LNP 30 32–34 30–33 seats in theory. Running the Labor 26 27–28 26–28 simulation 1,000 times allows us to Greens 9 7–8 8–10 explore the possibility of them One Nation 4 3–4 4–6 winning zero, one, two or even six Centre Alliance 3 3–4 2–3 seats. In practice, such a party is LDP 1 most likely to win no seats (in just Conservatives 1 1 under half of simulations), and it Lambie 1 0–1 winning five or six seats is extremely Justice 1 0–1 unlikely (occurring less than once every 1,000 simulations). See the appendices for more details. Senate projections Autumn 2018 3 Figure 2: Average Senate results (1,000 simulations) 76 Labor Greens Lambie Centre Alliance 38 Justice Independent One Nation LDP Conservatives 0 LNP At 2016 Half-Senate Two Half-Senates Note: The line at 38 seats marks the level required to block legislation. One additional vote (a total of 39) is required to pass legislation. Senate projections Autumn 2018 4 One Nation in Australian politics Since we began including One Nation in our polling April 2016, their support grew steadily until reaching a high of 13% in our March 2017 poll. Over the last four polls, their support has stayed within the band of 9–10%. This is about double their result in the July 2016 election. Partly because of an unfavourable distribution of Senate terms (i.e. most One Nation senators are up for re-election), the party is most likely to have three (34% chance) or four seats (31% chance) following the next half-Senate election. In practice, four seats would improve their position by one as Fraser Anning left the party to sit as an independent. However, there is a wide range of possibilities as they are competitive in several states – including dropping to two seats or increasing to six. By the time the second half- Senate election comes around, if polling remained static, an increased One Nation party room of five is the single most likely outcome (28% chance), with eight or nine senators an outside possibility. Our worst case, but certainly possible, scenario for One Nation sees them falling to two seats following the next election (winning one in Queensland, combined with Pauline Hanson’s six-year term). Figure 3: Likelihood of One Nation winning certain amounts of seats after the first and the second half-Senate election (1,000 simulations) 40% 34.0% 35% 31.2% 30% 25.1% 25.9% 25% 20.9% 19.0% 20% 15% 12.5% 13.4% 10.2% 10% 5% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Half-Senate Second Half-Senate Senate projections Autumn 2018 5 The Greens in the Senate Our polling shows a small decline in the Greens’ share of the vote since we began polling Senate intentions in February 2016. As with One Nation, the Greens are hindered by an unbalanced allocation of three- year-term Senate seats, which means their Senate representation is likely to go backwards at the next half-Senate election. However, their prospects look better at the subsequent half-Senate election, where nine seats is the single most likely outcome (31% chance). Rather than an improvement in the Greens vote, this reflects a fall in the major party vote, putting more Senate seats in play.