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Morrison's Miracle the 2019 Australian Federal Election

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Morrison's Miracle the 2019 Australian Federal Election MORRISON'S MIRACLE THE 2019 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION MORRISON'S MIRACLE THE 2019 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION EDITED BY ANIKA GAUJA, MARIAN SAWER AND MARIAN SIMMS In memory of Dr John Beaton FASSA, Executive Director of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia from 2001 to 2018 and an avid supporter of this series of election analyses Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] Available to download for free at press.anu.edu.au ISBN (print): 9781760463618 ISBN (online): 9781760463625 WorldCat (print): 1157333181 WorldCat (online): 1157332115 DOI: 10.22459/MM.2020 This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode Cover design and layout by ANU Press Cover photograph: Scott Morrison Campaign Day 11. Photo by Mick Tsikas, AAP. This edition © 2020 ANU Press CONTENTS Figures . ix Plates . xiii Tables . .. xv Abbreviations . xix Acknowledgements . xxiii Contributors . xxv Foreword . xxxiii 1 . Morrison’s miracle: Analysing the 2019 Australian federal election . 1 Anika Gauja, Marian Sawer and Marian Simms Part 1. Campaign and context 2 . Election campaign overview . 21 Marian Simms 3 . The rules of the game . 47 Marian Sawer and Michael Maley 4 . Candidates and pre‑selection . .. 71 Anika Gauja and Marija Taflaga 5 . Ideology and populism . 91 Carol Johnson 6 . The personalisation of the campaign . 107 Paul Strangio and James Walter 7 . National polling and other disasters . 125 Luke Mansillo and Simon Jackman 8 . The perilous polling of single seats . 149 Murray Goot Part 2. The results 9 . House of Representatives results . 179 Ben Raue 10 . The Senate result . 203 Antony Green 11 . The election in the States, Territories and regions . 223 Nick Economou, Zareh Ghazarian, Narelle Miragliotta, Will Sanders, Rodney Smith, John Warhurst and Paul Williams 12 . Voter behaviour . 253 Shaun Ratcliff, Jill Sheppard and Juliet Pietsch Part 3. Actors 13 . The Australian Labor Party . 277 Rob Manwaring 14 . The Liberal Party . 295 Nicholas Barry 15 . The National Party of Australia . 313 Geoff Cockfield 16 . The Australian Greens . 329 Stewart Jackson 17 . The minor parties . 343 Glenn Kefford 18 . The Independents . 357 Jennifer Curtin and Jill Sheppard 19 . Business . 373 John Wanna 20 . Unions . 397 Andrew Scott 21 . Third parties and think tanks . 411 Ebony Bennett Part 4. Media 22 . Media coverage . 431 Andrea Carson and Lawrie Zion 23 . Party campaign communications . 455 Stephen Mills 24 . Cartoons, memes and videos . 473 Lucien Leon FIGURES Figure 3.1 Political party advertising spending, 1 September 2018 – 18 May 2019. 53 Figure 3.2 Proportion of House of Representatives votes by voting method ......................................62 Figure 3.3 Rise in proportion of House of Representatives votes cast before election day. 64 Figure 7.1 ALP first-preference voting intentions between the 2016 and 2019 federal elections ............................130 Figure 7.2 Coalition first-preference voting intentions between the 2016 and 2019 federal elections .....................131 Figure 7.3 Coalition two-party-preferred voting intentions between the 2016 and 2019 federal elections .....................132 Figure 7.4 First-preference voting intentions house effects, 2016–19 .........................................134 Figure 7.5 Coalition two-party-preferred voting intentions house effects, 2016–19. .135 Figure 7.6 Coalition two-party-preferred voting intentions historical house effects, 2004–19 .......................138 Figure 7.7 Labor first-preference voting intentions historical house effects, 2004–19. .139 Figure 7.8 Coalition first-preference voting intentions historical house effects, 2004–19. 140 Figure 7.9 Dispersion before an election, 2004–19 ..............143 Figure 9.1 Total House of Representatives candidates per election, 1990–2019 .......................................183 ix MORRISON'S MIRACLE Figure 9.2 Labor two-party-preferred vote in each State compared with the remainder of the country, 1958–2019 ............186 Figure 9.3 Seats decided on preferences, 1993–2019 ............188 Figure 9.4 Labor two-party-preferred vote before and on election day .......................................190 Figure 9.5 Informal voting rate at federal elections, 1990–2019 ....191 Figure 9.6 Non-classic races in federal elections, 1990–2019 ......196 Figure 10.1 Example of the Senate ballot paper ................206 Figure 12.1 First-preference vote intention for the House of Representatives, by age .............................257 Figure 12.2 Non-voting for the House of Representatives, by age ...257 Figure 12.3 Support for the use of negative gearing for investment properties, by age. 258 Figure 12.4 First-preference vote intention for the House of Representatives, by support of the use of negative gearing for investment properties and age .......................259 Figure 12.5 Party support by business or trust ownership and household income ...............................261 Figure 12.6 First-preference vote intention for the House of Representatives, by home ownership and household income ...261 Figure 12.7 First-preference defections from Labor for the House of Representatives, by household income .................262 Figure 12.8 First-preference defections from the Coalition for the House of Representatives, by household income ...........263 Figure 12.9 Support for the use of negative gearing for investment properties, by home ownership and household income ......263 Figure 12.10 Vote intention by support for the use of negative gearing for investment properties and household income .....264 Figure 12.11 First-preference vote intention for the House of Representatives, by ancestry .........................268 Figure 12.12 Belief that rights for same-sex couples have gone too far, by ancestry ..................................268 x FIGURES Figure 12.13 First-preference defections from Labor for the House of Representatives, by Chinese ancestry ..................269 Figure 12.14 First-preference defections from the Coalition for the House of Representatives, by Chinese ancestry .............270 Figure 13.1 ALP first preferences, 1980–2019 .................279 Figure 13.2 Centre-left parties’ share of the vote ................280 Figure 13.3 Key policy offerings of major parties, 2019 federal election ..........................................281 Figure 15.1 Country/National Party share of primary votes and seats for the House of Representatives at national elections ...319 Figure 15.2 Ratings for the factors of ‘security and patriotism’ and ‘equality and freedom’ ............................324 Figure 16.1 House and Senate results for the Australian Greens, 1993–2019 .......................................332 Figure 17.1 First-preference votes for minor parties and Independents. 344 Figure 22.1 2019 election coverage in daily metropolitan Australian newspapers ...............................435 Figure 22.2 Comparing sentiment of stories about parties and their leaders. .437 Figure 22.3 Comparing the proportions of stories in the 2016 and 2019 election campaigns that were not neutral in sentiment. 437 Figure 22.4 Story topics most commonly featured on the front pages of the daily press during the 2019 election campaign ........438 Figure 22.5 Ratings figures for Sky News content on free-to-air television during the 2019 election campaign ..............442 Figure 22.6 The total number of online interactions with the major political parties and their leaders’ political communications before and during the 2019 election campaign .............447 xi PLATES Plate 3.1 Chisholm polling place sign mimicking an AEC notice ....60 Plate 17.1 Copy of UAP text message sent to voters .............350 Plate 23.1 ALP 30-second television commercial, ‘Scott Morrison— Only for the Top End of Town’ ........................459 Plate 23.2 Liberal Party 30-second television commercial, ‘Australia can’t afford Labor’ ..........................463 Plate 24.1 Tony Abbott, Tango Avenue Street Library ...........475 Plate 24.2 Various responses to Tango Avenue Street Library, Tony Abbott, Twitter account, 20–21 March 2019 .........476 Plate 24.3 Still showing an image sequence from Captain GetUp video, 13 April 2019 . .477 Plate 24.4 Still showing an image sequence from GetUp! Australia video, 23 April 2019 . .477 Plate 24.5 Jon Kudelka, ‘Modern campaigning’ ................478 Plate 24.6 David Pope, ‘Economic inputs of Australia!’ ..........479 Plate 24.7 Michael Leunig, ‘Short story’ ......................479 Plate 24.8 Cartoon by Andrew Dyson .......................480 Plate 24.9 Cartoon by Mark Knight .........................480 Plate 24.10 David Rowe, ‘Packing room …’. 482 Plate 24.11 David Rowe, ‘Hold the front page!’ ................482 Plate 24.12 Pat Campbell, ‘Army of the un-policies’ .............483 Plate 24.13 Cathy Wilcox, ‘Team ScoMo’ ....................483 Plate 24.14 Meme by Innovative and Agile Memes .............484 xiii MORRISON'S MIRACLE Plate 24.15 Meme by ALP Spicy Meme Stash .................484 Plate 24.16 Still showing an image sequence from The Weekly with Charlie Pickering’s mash-up video ‘Australian Labor Party Robotics’, 10 May 2019 .............................485 Plate 24.17 Still showing an image sequence from The Weekly with Charlie Pickering’s mash-up video ‘Rebranding Scott Morrison’,
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