The US, Kazakhstan and Japan Rethink Iran's Nuclear Rights

M K Bhadrakumar

The US, Kazakhstan and JapanThe war in nearby Afghanistan provides the Rethink Iran’s Nuclear Rights backdrop for the US's proactive diplomacy. But that, too, is deceptive. It seems the US is also M K Bhadrakumar probing a solution to the Iran nuclear problem with Kazakhstan's helping hand. The urgency is When the wastes of Qyzylqum and Karakum great and President Barack Obama has already blossom in early spring, the enchanting sight hinted that he intends to pay a visit to can pain one's heart. But the killer deserts are Kazakhstan, the first ever to the steppes by an deceptive in appearance, especially Qyzylqum, American president. which is in the tract of land between the two great rivers in Central Asia - the Amu Darya According to the Wall Street Journal, the and Sirdarya. Obama administration is "carefully considering" the setting up of an international In the spring of 1220, when Genghis Khan uranium fuel bank in Kazakhstan, which could abruptly rode out of the Qyzylqum with a few form the exit strategy for the historic US-Iran hundred Mongol horsemen to take the Amir of standoff. That is why the visit by the Iranian Bukhara by surprise, the Amir never imagined President Mahmud Ahmadinejad to Astana, that the desert would so easily concede safe Kazakhstan, on Monday assumes exceptional passage to a Mongol stranger. Bukhara - one of importance. the biggest cities at that time along with Cordoba, Cairo and Baghdad - paid heavily for In bits and pieces, a stray thought has been the desert's treachery. Bukhara took over two surfacing in the recent months in the US centuries to recover from "God's wrath", which discourses over the situation surrounding Iran. the austere Khan insisted he was administering It sought a rethink of Washington's insistence to the slothful, opulent city for its sinful ways. on Iran jettisoning its pursuit of uranium enrichment as a pre-requisite of It is again early spring in the Central Asian commencement of direct talks between the two steppes. There is a deceptive calm, but all signs countries. This was borne out of a growing are that the Great Game is bestirring from its realization that the US insistence was no longer slumber. The United States is focusing on the tenable. A logjam has indeed developed as it key Central Asian country of Kazakhstan, which became clearer by the day that within the straddles the Qyzylqum and the Karakum, to fractious Iranian opinion there is virtual stage a strategic comeback in the region. unanimity when it comes to the continuance of Prospects are brighter than ever as Kazakhstan the country's nuclear program, and effecting a is edging closer to the chairmanship of the regime change in Tehran didn't necessarily Organization of Security and Economicalter Iran's policies. Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) next year. The OSCE leadership brings Kazakhstan into the The Obama administration faces the reality that forefront of the Western strategies in Eurasia - unless the impasse is broken somehow, the and out of Russian orbit. standoff continues. The standoff worked to

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Iran's advantage only insofar as the country Kazakhstan would be ready to consider hosting speeded up its nuclear program ever since the it on its territory as a signatory of the nuclear series of United Nations (UN) Security Council non-proliferation treaty and as a country that resolutions since 2006 began forbidding Iran voluntarily renounced nuclear weapons," from enriching uranium. Iran today hasNazarbayev said. installed over 5,500 centrifuges and built up a stockpile exceeding 1,000 kilograms of low- enriched uranium.

It now appears that the US might cede to Iran's nuclear program. The Wall Street Journal reported last Friday that as part of a policy review commissioned by Obama, "diplomats are discussing whether the US will eventually have to accept Iran's insistence on carrying out the [enrichment] process, which can produce both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material". The newspaper assessed that the Obama administration's message to Tehran is increasingly shaping up as "Don't develop a nuclear weapon" - a nuanced stance that would Nazarbayev (left) and Ahmadinejad in not rule out a deal accepting Iranian Kazakhstan enrichment as such. It pointed out that Obama's articulations on the subject have become much less specific than those of former The veteran Kazakh statesman (who might have president George W Bush, who never minced been the Soviet Union's prime minister but for words in crying a halt to Iran's enrichment. the superpower's implosion in 1991) didn't speak out of the blue. Such impetuousness is The new thinking is that the priority should be alien to his shrewd political temperament. He to win greater access for UN inspectors to the knew the time has come for his proposal to be Iranian nuclear establishments, as compared publicly voiced. It is an idea that is evidently with the current limited inspection regime, supported by Obama. It devolves upon the which has led to diminishing information creation of a global repository that would allow regarding Iran's nuclear program. In other countries to tap into Kazakhstan's vast reserves words, why not trust Iran to retain itsof uranium to fuel their nuclear plants without enrichment activities so long as its program having to develop their own enrichment can be effectively verified. capability. At any rate, Ahmadinejad also chose to publicly welcome the Kazakh proposal. "We In this scenario, it is significant that following [Iran] think that Nurusultan Nazarbayev's idea talks with Ahmadinejad, Kazakhstan President to host a nuclear fuel bank is a very good Nurusultan Nazarbayev chose the venue of proposal," he noted. their joint press conference on Monday in Astana to make the public offer that his country These are, of course, early days. However, Iran is willing to host a global nuclear fuel bank as used to maintain at one point that it would be part of a US-backed plan to put all uranium open to the idea of stopping sensitive uranium enrichment under international control. "If enrichment if a supply of nuclear fuel from such a nuclear fuel bank were to be created, abroad could be guaranteed. In the face of the

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Bush administration's mindless containment Significantly, Ahmadinejad also utilized the strategy, the Iranian stance hardened,second press meet to make some positive especially as the nuclear file got transferred references to Obama's recent overtures. "We from the International Atomic Energy Agency hope Obama would manage to … establish to the UN Security Council, and the country friendly relations with other countries on equal began harping on its due rights to master the terms. We welcome fundamental changes and complete nuclear fuel cycle, including enriched are longing for them to happen … we are uranium, for peaceful purposes. waiting for practical deeds and real changes … Currently, the statements are satisfactory … If Later on Monday in Astana, Ahmadinejad fundamental changes [in US policy] occur, we utilized yet another press conference to argue ill definitely welcome them." that he welcomed Nazarbayev's proposal since "any country that has uranium mines and the What emerges is that Japan might also play a capability to produce nuclear fuel can also key role in the US-Kazakh nuclear paradigm establish a nuclear fuel bank". He then went on and any resultant new opening with Iran. The to elaborate the Iranian response: news agency Agence France-Presse reported that senior Japanese diplomats with deep As regards the nuclear issue, experience in dealing with Iran – Arima Tatsuo, two major developments are special envoy on the Middle East, Suzuki simultaneously needed. One is Toshiro, head of the foreign ministry's Middle ending the assumption that East and Africa department, and Shirota Akio, nuclear energy is quite the Japanese ambassador in Tehran - have held same as nuclear bomb. And several days of intensive consultations in the other one is about Washington with the Obama administration, disarmament by the nuclear including with the National Security Council in powers in the world. This the White House. would ease [Iranian] concerns regarding these powers and Curiously, Japan and Kazakhstan have an also ease the global concerns. expanding cooperation program in the nuclear That is to say, the issue needs field. There is much complementarity between to be solved fundamentally ... the two countries since Japan is the world's Ever since nuclear energy got third-largest importer of uranium, next only to equated with [the] nuclear the US and France, while Kazakhstan possesses bomb, a monopoly developed the world's second largest reserves of uranium over nuclear energy, whereas after Australia. Japan currently imports only 1% nuclear energy has beneficial of its uranium from Kazakhstan and hopes to uses in medicine, agriculture increase it to 30-40% in the next decade or so. and industry. I wouldn't say that it was intentional to equate nuclear energy and nuclear bomb, but, considering the broadly negative fallouts of it, we cannot say that it has been totally unintentional, either.

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Uranium mine in Kazakhstan Kazakhstan's ambitious plans for developing nuclear energy, increasing uranium exports, and expanding nuclear fuel production and As for Kazakhstan, at 1.5 million metric tons, it export. Besides, Tokyo always kept up cordial holds roughly 19% of the world's total uranium ties with Tehran through the 30-year period deposits. More than half of the Kazakh deposits since the 1979 Iranian revolution. are also available for extraction by in-site leaching, which is a cheap and environmentally More importantly, Japan rivals China in both friendly method in comparison with extraction the Central Asian and Middle Eastern regions. from open pits or deep shaft mines. Kazakhstan The rivalry provides Tokyo with just the right produced 6,637 metric tons in 2007 and 8,521 metric tons in 2008. The production is expected impetus to pay close attention to ties with to jump to 11,900 tons in 2009. Astana and Tehran, which are two key capitals in Beijing's energy diplomacy. Japanese companies like Marubeni have moved into Kazakh uranium mines. Within theBut China won't be alone in taking stock of any framework of a series of cooperationUS-Japanese-Kazakh tie-up in the field of agreements, Japan has agreed to provide nuclear energy. Russia would be equally wary technology assistance to Kazakhstan forof the geopolitical implications of any processing uranium fuel and building light- expansion of US influence in Kazakhstan. water reactors. One key agreement in October Russian companies have been making robust 2007 enabled Kazatompom, a Kazakh state efforts to gain control over Kazakhstan's company, to acquire 10% of Westinghouse uranium mines. The Kremlin encouraged Electric from Japan's Toshiba at a cost of $540 Astana to become a partner in setting up an million. international nuclear re-processing center in Siberia. Thus, Moscow would be displeased All in all, therefore, Kazakhstan is gearing up with any US-Japanese attempt to build up as a leading player in the global uranium Kazakhstan as an international nuclear fuel market while Japan is eager to secure a stable bank. supply of uranium for its growing nuclear energy industry. Japan is a notoriously reticent In short, Iran's support of the idea of setting up partner in nuclear cooperation and the fashion a nuclear fuel bank holds the potential to in which it made an exception in the case of address the US-Iran nuclear standoff. On Kazakhstan is truly extraordinary. From the US Thursday, the European Union's foreign policy perspective, Japan would be an ideal partner for fleshing out the idea of a nuclear fuel bank advisor Javier Solana invited Iran's nuclear in Kazakhstan since it has an advanced nuclear negotiators for talks. He wouldn't have taken fuel cycle industry. Japan's Rokkashothe initiative without synchronizing with the reprocessing plant gives it a unique status as Obama administration. The big question is the first country to have such facility, though a whether Washington will shed its reluctance to non-nuclear weapon state. Japan is alsoengage with Ahmadinejad, who is completing committed to commercialize practical fast his term in office in June. The indications are breeder reactor cycles. At the same time, Japan that Obama might be inclined to directly has been right in the vanguard of nuclear engage, the impact on the presidential poll in disarmament and non-proliferation. Iran notwithstanding.

Washington would see that Japan fits well with

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Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career April 10, 2009 and at The Asia-Pacific Journal diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His on April 12, 2009. assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Recommended citation: M K Bhadrakumar, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey. "The US, Kazakhstan and Japan Rethink Iran’s Nuclear Rights," The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol This article was published at Asia Times on 15-4-09, April 12, 2009.