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A Tool for the Prevention and Reduction of the Risks of Nuclear Energy 1

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A Tool for the Prevention and Reduction of the Risks of Nuclear Energy 1 Multinational Approaches: A Tool for the Prevention and Reduction of the Risks of Nuclear Energy 1 Anton Khlopkov, Executive Director of the PIR Center The World Nuclear Association predicts that by 2020 the installed nuclear power plant capacity in the world will have increased from 370 GW to 430 GW. The world now has 439 nuclear reactors and plans for building 158 new reactors have been announced 2. The re- sult of such growth will be an increased demand for enriched ura- nium because the majority of existing and projected power plants use uranium enriched to 3.5-4% for U-235 isotope as a fuel, as well as growing amounts of spent nuclear fuel in the world. At the same time, the world market in nuclear plants is experienc- ing a massive expansion of international cooperation. For example, the US company Westinghouse has been acquired by the Japanese Toshiba, General Electric has formed an alliance with Hitachi, another Japanese company, Mitsubishi, is cooperating with the French Areva , which also owns the nuclear branch of the German company Siemens . Toshiba is trying to forge an alliance with the Kazakhstan company Kazatomprom and the Russian Tekhsnabex- port . All that, coupled with another crisis of the non-proliferation re- gime caused by the desire of some states to gain access to sensitive nuclear technologies bypassing the current export control rules, re- vives interest and the prospects of the creation of International Nuc- lear Fuel Cycle Centers. NFC Initiatives The concept of international centers providing nuclear fuel cycle services was first proposed in the 1970s in the wake of the crisis of the nuclear non-proliferation regime triggered by India’s nuclear test 1 This article was prepared by the author for NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Energy and Environmental Challenges to Security” to be held on November 21-23, 2007 in Budapest (Hungary). 2 Plans For New Reactors Worldwide. World Nuclear Association. August 2007 . http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf17.html . Accessed 27 October 2007. 2 in 1974 and was connected with the energy crisis that forced many countries to consider expanding their nuclear power programs. In expectation of a surge in the development of nuclear energy world- wide, various initiatives were put forward to create international centers connected with the more sensitive stages of the nuclear fuel cycle: uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. The key task of international centers was to prevent the uncontrolled pro- liferation of nuclear technologies that could be used not only for civ- il but also for military purposes. Politically, the idea of multinational nuclear facilities was first widely aired in 1975 at the First Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference. The Conference’s final declaration noted that multilateral and regional NFC centers could provide a way to satisfy, safely and economically, the needs of many states in the nuclear field, while at the same time facilitating physical protection and ap- plication of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safe- guards 3. In the late 1970s and early 1980s a series of studies was carried out into the possibilities and prospects of multilateral approaches to NFC. In the 1970s the most promising area of nuclear energy devel- opment was thought to be the closed nuclear fuel cycle and “pluto- nium economics”. Accordingly, the bulk of the research into the possibilities of tighter monitoring of NFC on a multilateral basis was concentrated at the time on the final stages of the nuclear fuel cycle – the reprocessing and handling of spent nuclear fuel, and the sto- rage of radioactive waste. In 1975–1977 the IAEA looked into the prospects of creating Re- gional Nuclear Fuel Cycle Centers (RNFCC). The study considered the economic aspects, physical security and compliance with IAEA safeguards in terms of possible multilateral approaches to the final stages of the nuclear fuel cycle (handling of spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste)4. From the economic point of view the creation of major centers for the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel may result in economies of 3 Carlton, Stoiber (2003). The Evolution of NPT Review Conference Final Documents, 1975-2000. Nonproliferation Review , Fall/ Winter, 140. 4 Logutova, Nadezhda (2005). On New Initiatives in the Area of Nuclear Mate- rials and Technologies Control. Yaderny Kontrol , 78 (4), 101. 3 scale. The study used various models to compare participation in RNFCCs and independent national development of the correspond- ing sectors. Calculations show that for countries with small nuclear programs participation in regional projects makes economic sense 5. Other advantages of the multilateral approach may include: • Reduced risk of nuclear incidents caused by poor management and training . The proposed international NFC centers would not give foreign experts access to the technological elements of the plants. That reduces the risk of incidents in the nuclear industry caused by poor management and training in those countries that have just started to develop nuclear energy. • Consolidation of nuclear materials and technologies on a li- mited number of sites. The reduction of the number of facili- ties that have sensitive nuclear technologies as well as nuclear materials reduces the risk of their proliferation. However, the numerous initiatives of multilateral approaches to the NFC proposed in the 1970s-1980s did not lead to practical re- sults. The main obstacle to their implementation was the reluctance of the majority of states to forgo their sovereignty and expose na- tional security to a threat in such a sensitive area as nuclear energy. Current Initiatives in the Field of Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle The idea of international NFC centers was resurrected in the early 2000s in the context of another nuclear non-proliferation crisis and the renaissance of nuclear energy. In the middle of the 2000s, a number of states as well as non- governmental and international organizations came up with a series of proposals aimed at creating international NFC centers. • On February 22, 2005, IAEA disseminated its Expert Group Report on Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle – a proposal to establish a nuclear fuel bank under the administration of the IAEA. 5 Ibid. 4 • On January 25, 2006, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin suggested an Initiative to create a system of international nuclear fuel cycle centers . • On February 6, 2006, the US Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP ) was announced by the US Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman. It offers assured nuclear fuel supply in exchange for a commitment to forgo the development of domestic uranium enrichment and spent fuel conversion capacity. • On May 31, 2006, a Concept for Reliable Access to Nuc- lear Fuel by states opting to rely on the international market for nuclear fuel rather than having domestic enrichment activities was offered by six countries with commercial uranium enrichment activities. • On September 1, 2006, Japan announced an initiative to establish a system called the " IAEA Standby Arrangements System for the Assurance of Nuclear Fuel Supply" under IAEA auspices. • On September 19, 2006, U.S nongovernmental organization Nuclear Threat Initiative made a proposal to set up a reserve of low-enriched uranium and offered 50 million US dollars for this purpose 6. • In September 2006, German Federal Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposed the creation of an international uranium enrichment facility - operated by the IAEA - at an extraterritorial (international) site 7. President Putin’s Initiative 6 More on the NTI initiative in Holgate, Laura (2007). A Proposal for a Nuclear Fuel Reserve. Security Index, 82 (2), 157-160. 7 Tariq Rauf, Head, Verification and Security Policy Coordination, “Multilater- al Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle and other proposals”, New Framework for the Utilization of Nuclear Energy in the 21st Century: Assurance of Supply and Non-Proliferation, Vienna, 6 February 2007. 5 On January 25, 2006, addressing a meeting of the Eurasian Eco- nomic Community (EurAsEC)8, President Putin of Russia proposed creating international centers to provide nuclear fuel cycle services. In accordance with the Russian President’s initiative, four types of centers would be created in Russia 9: • uranium enrichment; • the handling of spent nuclear fuel; • training of personnel in the atomic energy field; • development of innovative atomic energy technologies 10 . As a first step in the implementation of the Russian President’s in- itiative it was decided to create an International Uranium Enrich- ment Center (IUEC). Russia is the world leader in providing industrial uranium enrich- ment services, possessing, according to different estimates, between 40 and 45% of the world capacity employing competitive separation technologies. 11 Its enterprises have been using the method of centri- fuge enrichment on an industrial scale since 1964, which is 30 times 8 The Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) is an international economic organization created to form external customs borders of its member countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), and to work out a common foreign economic policy, tariffs, prices and other elements of a common market. EurAsEC is the legal successor to the Customs Union. 9 Sergey Ruchkin, Deputy Director, Department of Strategic Analysis, Tenex . “Nuclear Nonproliferation and International Uranium Enrichment
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