Confronting Climate Change in the US Northeast
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Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast S C I E N C E , I MPACT S , AND SOLUTION S Prepared by the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Synthesis Team: Peter C. Frumhoff James J. McCarthy Jerry M. Melillo Susanne C. Moser Donald J. Wuebbles J U L Y 2 0 0 7 A report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment ii CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE U.S. N ORTHEA S T E X E C U T I V E S UMMARY iii Citation: Frumhoff, P.C., J.J. McCarthy, J.M. Melillo, S.C. Moser, and D.J. Wuebbles. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). © 2007 Union of Concerned Scientists All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. The full text of this report and additional technical background information are available on the NECIA website (http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org) or may be obtained from: UCS Publications 2 Brattle Square Cambridge, MA 02238-9105 Or email [email protected] or call (617) 547-5552. Designed by: DG Communications, Acton, MA www.NonprofitDesign.com Printed on recycled paper. ii CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE U.S. N ORTHEA S T A B O U T T H E N ORTHEA S T CLIMATE IMPACTE X E C U TS I VA Ess SEUMMARYss MENT iii About the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) is a collaborative effort between the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and a team of independent experts to develop and communicate a new assessment of climate change and associated impacts on key climate-sensitive sectors in the northeastern United States. The goal of the assessment is to combine state-of-the-art analyses with effective outreach to provide opinion leaders, policy makers, and the public with the best available science upon which to base informed choices about climate-change mitigation and adaptation. NECIA oversight and guidance is provided by a Justin Sheffield, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ multidisciplinary Synthesis Team of senior scientists: David Wolfe, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois, Urbana- NECIA SYNTHESIS TEAM Champaign, IL Peter Frumhoff (Chair), Union of Concerned Scientists, Eric Wood, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ Cambridge, MA James McCarthy (Vice-Chair), Harvard University, COASTAL TEAM Cambridge, MA Coastal Flooding Jerry Melillo (Vice-Chair), Marine Biological Laboratory, Paul Kirshen (Lead), Tufts University, Medford, MA Woods Hole, MA Ellen Douglas, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA Susanne Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Allan Gontz, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA Research, Boulder, CO Yong Tian, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL Chris Watson, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA The material presented in this report is based primarily Shoreline Change on the peer-reviewed research of the NECIA collaborators Andrew Ashton, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, listed below. Most of this research is also presented in Woods Hole, MA more technical detail in the formal scientific literature, Jeff Donnelly, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, including a special issue of the journal Mitigation and Woods Hole, MA Adaptation Strategies to Global Change (in press, 2008). Rob Evans, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA CLIMATE TEAM Katharine Hayhoe (Co-lead), Texas Tech University, MARINE TEAM Michael Fogarty (Co-lead), National Oceanic and Lubbock, TX Atmospheric Administration, Woods Hole, MA Cameron Wake (Co-lead), University of New Hampshire, Lewis Incze (Co-lead), University of Southern Maine, Durham, NH Portland, ME Bruce Anderson, Boston University, Boston, MA Richard Wahle, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, James Bradbury, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA West Boothbay Harbor, ME Art DeGaetano, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY James Manning, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Thomas Huntington, United States Geological Survey, Administration, Woods Hole, MA Augusta, ME David Mountain, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Xin-Zhong Liang, Illinois State Water Survey, Administration, Woods Hole, MA Champaign, IL Andrew Pershing, University of Maine and Gulf of Maine Lifeng Luo, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ Research Institute, Portland, ME Edwin Maurer, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA Mark Schwartz, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI iv CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE U.S. N ORTHEA S T E X E C U T I V E S UMMARY v FORESTS TEAM Patrick Kinney, Columbia University, New York, NY Forest Ecosystem Processes Christine Rogers, University of Massachusetts, Scott Ollinger, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH Amherst, MA Christine Goodale, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Cynthia Rosenzweig, Columbia University, New York, NY William Solecki, City University of New York, New York, NY Tree Species Habitat Lewis Ziska, United States Department of Agriculture, Louis Iverson, U.S. Forest Service, Delaware, OH Beltsville, MD Bird Species MEETING THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE TEAM Nicholas Rodenhouse (Lead), Wellesley College, William Moomaw, Tufts University, Medford, MA Wellesley, MA Susanne Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Louis Iverson, U.S. Forest Service, Delaware, OH Research, Boulder, CO Daniel Lambert, Vermont Institute of Natural Science, Quechee, VT WATER TEAM Stephen Matthews, The Ohio State University, David Ahlfeld, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA Columbus, OH Sarah Dorner, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA Kent McFarland, Vermont Institute of Natural Science, Paula Sturdevant Rees, University of Massachusetts, Quechee, VT Amherst, MA Hemlock Woolly Adelgid ECONOMICS TEAM Ann Paradis, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (Provided technical input and review of multiple sections of this assessment) Joe Elkinton, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA Tom Tietenberg, Colby College, Waterville, ME Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT Coldwater Fish Clifford Kraft, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY NECIA PROJECT MANAGER Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Union of Concerned Scientists, AGRICULTURE TEAM Cambridge, MA David Wolfe (Lead), Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Larry Chase, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Curtis Petzoldt, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Lewis Ziska, United States Department of Agriculture, This work builds on the NECIA climate research Beltsville, MD reported in Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast available at www.northeastclimateimpacts.org, as well as the WINTER RECREATION foundation laid by considerable previous research. This Daniel Scott, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, includes the New England, Metropolitan East Coast, and Ontario, Canada Mid-Atlantic regional assessments carried out under the auspices of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential HEALTH TEAM Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (http:// www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/) as well as the recent assess- Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois, ment of clima Urbana-Champaign, IL te change impacts on North America by Jennifer Cox, City University of New York, New York, NY the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Field 1 Paul Epstein, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA et al. 2007). 1 Field, C.B., L.D. Mortsch, M. Brlacich, D.L. Forbes, P. Kovacs, J.A. Patz, S.W. Running, M.J. Scott, J. Andrey, D. Cayan, M. Demuth, A. Hamlet, G. Jones, E. Mills, S. Mills, C.K. Minns, D. Sailor, M. Saunders, D. Scott, and W. Solecki. 2007. North America, Chapter 14. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. In press. iv CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE U.S. N ORTHEA S T E XTABLE E C U T IOF V E CONTENTS UMMARYS v Table of Contents iii About the Northeast Climate Impacts 62 Water: A Vital Resource Assessment 67 C H A P T E R F IVE vi Figures, Tables, Text Boxes Impacts on Agriculture 67 Background vii Acknowledgments 69 Dairy 71 Crop Productivity ix Executive Summary 77 Weeds 78 Insect Pests 1 C H A P T E R O NE 79 Adapting to Unavoidable Climate Change Our Changing Northeast Climate 1 Background 81 C H A P T E R S I X 3 Projected Climate Change Impacts on Winter Recreation 13 Conclusion 81 Background 83 Snowmobiling 15 C H A P T E R Tw O 86 Skiing Coastal Impacts 88 Conclusion 15 Background 17 Coastal Flooding 91 C HAPTER SEVEN 25 Shoreline Changes Impacts on Human Health 29 Coastal Adaptation 91 Background 92 Extreme Heat 33 C H A P T E R T H R E E 96 Air Quality Marine Impacts 100 Vector-Borne Disease 33 Background 34 Ocean Dynamics 105 C H A P T E R E IGHT 36 Surface and Bottom Water Temperatures Meeting the Climate Challenge in 36 Cod the U.S. Northeast 41 Lobster 106 Introduction 45 Conclusion 107 Reducing Emissions in the Northeast 108 Reducing Emissions by Sector 47 C H A P T E R F OUR 119 Adapting to Unavoidable Climate Change Impacts on Forests in the Northeast 47 Background 124 Conclusion 49 Projected Changes in Northeast Forests 50 Spruce/Fir Forests 126 Endnotes 54 Hemlock Stands 55 Northern Hardwood Forests 144 NECIA Synthesis Team 58 Ecosystem Services 145 Photo & Map Credits vi CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE U.S. N ORTHEA S T E X E C U T I V E S UMMARY vii Figures 6 Figure 1: Changes in Regional Average Summer Temperature 7 Figure 2: Migrating State Climates 11 Figure 3: The Changing Face of Winter 12 Figure 4: Projected Rise in Global Sea Level Relative to 2005 40 Figure 5: Emissions Choices May Redefine Water Temperatures Suitable for Cod 49 Figure 6: Changes in Habitat Suitability for Different Forest Types by Late-Century 53 Figure 7: Potential Changes in Abundance of Bird Species 55 Figure 8: Late-Century Range of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid 70 Figure 9: Vulnerability of Milk Production by Late-Century under the Higher-Emissions Scenario 84 Figure 10: Shrinking Snowmobiling Seasons 88 Figure 11: Vulnerability of Ski Resorts to Climate Change 93 Figure 12: Increases in Extreme Heat in Northeast Cities 97 Figure 13: Increasing Risk of Poor Air Quality in Northeast Cities 107 Figure 14: Northeast U.S.