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Versus % Change in Enrollment 2 ISM CONSULTING Presented by: Terry L Moore, Sr. Strategic Planning Retreat Executive Consultant © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Contact Websites [email protected] isminc.com facebook.com/ismfanpage Office:302.646.4944 Twitter.com/isminc youtube.com/indschmgt About ISM Founded in 1975 Serves independent schools exclusively Presenter 8778 clients Terry L. Moore United States and 31 foreign countries Primarily a research firm Consultations, publications, workshops, and online learning Insurance Consortium © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Creating A Strategic Plan 3-6 plan to guide the overall direction of the school 3-6 financial plan with estimates to assure the strategic plan is executable ISM Method 1. Educate the Board about what really matters. 2. Review important data to help you understand where the school is vis-à-vis other independent schools. 3. Brainstorm the ideal school in 5 years © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Competing Tuition Philosophies Price Ceiling Versus No Price Ceiling © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING 3 PI School Taxonomies Price Product Process © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Price Product Process Characteristics Characteristic Price Product Process Student/Fclty 16:1 10:1 8:1 Ratio Student/Stf 11.7:1 5.8:1 5.1 -1 Ratio Tuition $7,000 $20,000 $25,000 Faculty 44 70 88 Admin/Staff 16 50 50 © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Key Outcomes – High Performing/High Perceived Value Schools Board – highly functioning committee structure, non- operational, highly respected Parent Satisfaction – key determiner to “word on the street” Student Experience – Key component of parent satisfaction long term and gives us a clear picture of the students’ experience Faculty Culture – key predictor of high performing, highly engaged and satisfied students © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING What Is Going on Out There? In January 2009, ISM conducted the largest survey ever completed of currently enrolled independent school students. The purpose– to investigate enrollment trends and confirm (or not) the reasons families choose independent schools. © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING ISM National Parent Survey Will your child(ren) continue in his/her present school until its last grade? 84% will or probably will stay 9% not sure 8% probably will not or will not stay © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING ISM National Parent Survey When asked about the perceived value of the education their child(ren) is receiving 85% excellent or good 11% average 2% below average or poor © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING ISM National Parent Survey When asked to indicate “ the level of importance” of the factors in their enrollment decision, the top five responses were: Safety of my child 4.71 Faculty care & concern 4.69 Character education 4.63 Faculty expertise 4.55 Academic rigor 4.50 © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING ISM National Parent Survey Those who responded average, below average, or poor were asked to cite what areas of their school needed improvement. Academic rigor 40% Top responses: Some faculty’s subject expertise 26% Some faculty’s care & concern 13% © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Understanding Our Clients Family Income % of Families Reporting Under $40,0000 3.23% $40,001 - $75,000 9.24% $75,001 - $125,000 20.74% $125,001 - $175,000 14.57% $175,001 - $225,000 11.99% $225,001 - $275,000 7.97% $275,001 - $325,000 6.29% $325,001 - $375,000 4.67% $375,001 - $425,000 3.72% $425,001 or greater 17.57% © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Price Elasticity Model ISM: hypothesis development, data collection, sent out survey to ISM database MS team: project oversight, hypothesis development, statistical analysis, and interpretation MS team qualifications Four team members worked on this including: Managing director: MBA/MPA/BS with focus in Applied Statistics from Yale, Harvard, and Kellogg (Northwestern); McKinsey & Co Director of Analytics: U of Chicago and Ph.D. program at Columbia in Economics and Education Senior Analyst: Wharton School, Mercer Consulting, Expedia.com (focus on price sensitivity) Independent validation: Mosteller Statistician of the Year, American Statistical Association (elite group of master statisticians) © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING About the Schools 40% price schools ($11,100 break point) 60% product/process schools Full responses: 138 schools yielding 600 observations © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Ran Many Regressions Using Different Hypotheses Enrollment change Tuition Whole school Raw $ change (example: $10k$11k By division versus $20k$21k) Entry point % change (10% versus 5%) New students Years Attrition 2005-10 % change Non-recession years (2005-08) Raw student change Recession years (2008-current) Students per grade (normalizing factor) Individual year changes (e.g., 2008-09) © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING About the Study Accounted for environmental factors outside of school control affecting enrollment Las Vegas – significant losses in real estate values Texas – recession had little impact © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Control Variables The following controls were added into the model to determine whether each variable makes a unique contribution to the changes in enrollment %. Geographic — Region of the country — Metropolitan area — Urban/suburban/rural Economic indicators — Average income for each school’s ZIP code — Changes in median housing values School characteristics — % of students on financial aid — Price/product/process schools — Religious affiliation © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING List of Regressions 1. Whole school: $ change in tuition versus % change in enrollment 2. Elementary school: $ change in tuition versus % change in enrollment 3. Middle school: $ change in tuition versus % change in enrollment 4. High school: $ change in tuition versus % change in enrollment 5. Whole school: $ change in tuition versus # change in enrollment Time series regressions6. Whole school: % change in tuition versus % change in enrollment 7. Price schools: $ change in tuition versus % change in enrollment 8. Non-price schools: $ change in tuition versus % change in enrollment 9. Whole school: $ change in tuition versus % change in entry grade enrollment 10. Whole school: $ change in tuition versus % change in new student enrollment 11. Whole school: $ change in tuition versus % change in attrited students 12. Whole school: % change in tuition (six-year CAGR) versus % change in Linear regressions enrollment (six-year CAGR) 13-17. (Yearly regressions) Whole school: $ change in tuition versus % change in enrollment Residuals were examined to ensure model accuracy for all regressions © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Key Findings No relationship between tuition change and enrollment! © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING $ Change in Tuition Versus % Change in Enrollment 2005- 2010 Whole School © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING $ Change in Tuition Versus % Change in Enrollment Lower school 2005-2010 © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING $ Change in Tuition Versus % Change in Enrollment 2005-2010 Middle School © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING $ Change in Tuition Versus % Change in Enrollment 2005-2010 Upper School © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Key Findings There is no relationship between changes in tuition and changes in enrollment (across all divisions, years, types, EVERYTHING!), suggesting that enrollment is more responsive to perceived value than to price Changes in tuition do not impact entry grade enrollment, new student enrollment, or attrition. Individual year regressions show no relationship between changes in tuition and changes in enrollment, indicating that price sensitivity has not changed during the recession. THEREFORE: Tuition decisions by Boards are totally idiosyncratic. © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING 3 Levers of Financial Equilibrium 1. Compensation 2. Hard Income 3. Student Staff Ratio © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING 3 Levers of Financial Equilibrium High Compensation + Small Class Size + Low Tuition = Insolvency High Compensation + Small Class Size + High Tuition = Solvency Low Compensation + Small Class Size + Low Tuition = Solvency © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Purpose and Outcome Statements Mission Portrait of Characteristics of Statement the Graduate Professional Excellence Strategic Plan/Strategic Financial Plan © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Excellence! © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Major Institutional Components Board Management Team Faculty © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Ideal Board 17-22 Profiled Members Meetings always occur because 3 year terms (w possibility of 2nd a decision must be made (vote or term) consensus) 60/40 current parents/non Self Evaluates parents Highly functioning Committee Structure © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Trusteeship’s Components Strategic Planning Major Gift Cultivation Develop fiscal support of the Strategic Plan Support and evaluation of the Head © 2014 Independent School Management ISM CONSULTING Board Structure Executive Committee Committee
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