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Generational Futures for MEA Generational Futures for MEA Stephen Troutman Futurist, Facilitator, Author, Consultant s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507 250-1611 August 13, 2015 Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 Generations • We are all familiar with the concept of generations – The "GI"s who won WWII, the "Greatest Generation" – They unified after the war to build the economic engine which powered the US dominance for the next 50 years – The "Baby Boom" generation that rebelled – In the 1960s and 1970s, they set out to change the world and were famously conflicted with their parents – "Generation X" is the irreverent, ‘just do it’ generation – The were the ‘latch key’ generation, they grew to be independent, pragmatic and self sufficient. – The Millennials want relevance and connection – They were originally called Generation Y because they were so different from Gen X. Also called Digital Natives Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 Agenda We will discuss these topics: The Research Generational Archetypes Generational Cycles What this means. The Crisis Cycle What is coming next? Logistics: Please, ask questions when they come to you Note taking not required, I will send a copy have these slides You may share and my slides freely Just attribute it to me and the authors of the reference works Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 Generations Research • The material you are about to delve into is based on work of two researcher/authors. • William Strauss and Neil Howe – Their basic research covers data: • Spanning 1584 to the 1980s of American history – Their analysis : • Identified 13 generations in American history. • Confirmed generational archetypes. • Identified repeating generational cycles. • Provide a model for forecast the future in the US. • Provided explanations for some European history. Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 Generations Research In the historic data, Strauss and Howe found differentiating characteristics by generation Eight important categories of the data are: 1. Approaches to child nurturing 2. Gender roles and gaps 3. Focus on idealism 4. Approach to institutions 5. Expressed family values 6. The current cultural imperatives 7. Future vision and expectations 8. The conduct and result of wars Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 A Note on Generations A generation is an identifiable cohort of people usually spanning a period between 17 and 23 years in Strauss and Howe’s research • For example, “Generation X”ers are: • Born from 1965 to 1982 (an 18 year span) Nomad • Children of the Silent Artist generation • “Out to do what needs to be done” • Archetype: Nomad / Reactive * Note: * Between their first book and their second book, the authors renamed the generations, in this example from Reactive to Nomad) Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 A Caveat on Generations There is no standard "generations" in the literature: • In one book by a different author, “Generation X” is purported to span only 11 years, followed by “Generation Y” for only 9 years While these two periods generally coincide with Strauss and Howe’s ‘early’ and ‘late’ Gen X research, they do not cover Gen Y It is often not known where the other authors got their data to divide the ‘generations’ as they did. It is up to the reader to ensure consistency: • When looking at generational information, or conclusions from different sources, it is important to verify that the underlying data is analyzed and used in the same way. Even Strauss and Howe changed their terminology between their first book, in 1991, and their second, in 1997. (e.g. Reactive to Nomad) • Ensure you are not comparing “apples” to “oranges” Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 Generational Archetypes Four distinct, repeating, generational archetypes* were found by Strauss and Howe: : Artist • Artist / Adaptive • Out to keep things working by consensus • Prophet / Idealist Prophet • Out to change the world • Nomad / Reactive Nomad • Out to do what needs to be done • Hero / Civic Hero • Out to work together with purpose Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 * Archetypes are groupings with common characteristics Resources William Strauss and Neil Howe They wrote five books based on their research • Generations: The History of America's Future , 1584 to 2069, Published 1991, ISBN 0688119123 • 13th Gen : Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?, Published 1993, ISBN 0679743650 • The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, Published 1997, ISBN 055306682X • Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation, Published 2000, ISBN 0375707190 • Millennials and the Pop Culture Published 2006, ISBN 09 712605 Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 Which Archetype* Are You? Born between 1901 and 1924 (24 years) Hero The Greatest Generation - Out to work together with purpose GI Archetype: Hero / Civic Born between 1925 and 1942 (18 years) Artist Silent The Silent Generation - Out to keep things going by consensus Archetype: Artist / Adaptive Born between 1943 and 1962 (20 years) Prophet Boomer Baby Boom - Out to change the world Archetype: Prophet / Idealist Born between 1963 and 1981 (19 years) Nomad Gen X Generation X - Out to do what needs to be done Archetype: Nomad / Reactive Born between 1982 and 2002[?] (21 years?) Hero Millennial or Gen Y - Out to work together with purpose Millennial Archetype: Hero / Civic Born after 2003[?] Artist Gen Z The next Silent Generation - Out to keep things going by consensus Archetype: Artist / Adaptive Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 * Archetypes are groupings with common characteristics .Generations p428 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 How are the generations related? GI / Hero Generation (elder) Hero • They are known as: the Greatest Generation, GI generation, and Civic generation. • GI Generation are grand parents to Millennials and parents to Boomers Silent / Artist Generation Artist • They are known as the Silent generation. • Silent are the parents of the Generation X Nomads Boomer / Prophet Generation Prophet • They are known as: Baby Boomers and the Me Generation, were “hippies” & “yuppies” • Boomers are the parents of Millennials and children of the GI Generation Gen X / Nomad Generation Nomad • They are known as Generation X or Xers, were “twenty-somethings” & “latch key kids” • Gen X is the generation between the Millennials and the Boomers. Children of the Silent and they are the parents of next Artist generation Millennial / Hero Generation (younger) Hero • They are also know as: Generation Y, Digital Natives, and Generation Next • Millennials are the children of Boomers, grandchildren of the GI Generation Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 Generations pass through time. There are four Age Cohorts : • Childhood ~ 0-19 years old • Young Adult ~ 20-39 years old • Midlife ~ 40-59 years old Late • Elder hood ~ 60-79 years old Elder- historically less important is: hood Late Elder hood ~ 80+ years old Elder- Stewardship : passing on values hood Mid Life Leadership : directing, using values Young Note that each Adult Active : working, testing values “age” cohort has a different Child focus hood Dependence : growing, learning values Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 The Four Generational Archetypes Exist in Repeating Patterns • With each • The archetypes appear, one Hero generational after another, in a repeating GI cycle, an elder pattern archetype • Artist Artist ages and fades away. • Prophet Silent • Nomad • Hero Prophet Boom • Artist • … Nomad Gen X • With each generation, the next archetype in the Hero pattern appears and joins Millen’l the cyle Artist Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 ? s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 The Patterns Shift Over Time The shift is gradual, taking years But the change in generational characteristics can be abrupt as a critical mass is achieved. Example Dates 1974 1981 1987 1994 Elder hood Hero Hero Hero Artist ~ 63-83 Artist Artist Midlife ~ 42-62 Artist Prophet Prophet Prophet Young Adult ~ 21-41 Prophet Nomad Nomad Childhood Nomad ~ 0-20 Nomad Hero Hero Hero Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 * Mid point was about 1994 Four Patterns Define Four Cycles Four repeating generational alignments are observed Each pattern defines a cycle which has distinct characteristics The cycles shift to the left, a turning with each new pattern Cycle Dates 1946-1964 1964-1984 1984-2002? 2003-2025 Elder hood Nomad Hero Artist Prophet ~ 63-83 Midlife Hero Artist Prophet Nomad ~ 42-62 Young Adult Artist Prophet Nomad Hero ~ 21-41 Childhood Prophet Nomad Hero Artist ~ 0-20 Cycles = High Awakening Unraveling Crisis Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 * Mid point was about 1994 Cycles Have Distinct Characteristics High – “innocent” Need to: “do what works” • e.g. 1946-1964, next about 2026-2047 Awakening – “passionate” Need to: “fix inner world problems” • e.g. 1964-1984, next about 2048-2069 Unraveling – “cynical” Need to: “do what feels right” • e.g. 1908-1929 and 1983-2003 Crisis – “combative, then practical” Need to: “fix the outer world problems” • e.g. 1929-1946, predicted 2004-2025 Copyright Stephen Troutman 2015 s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu 507-250-1611 Moods by Cycle Cycle:>
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