Zülfikar et al. Earth, Planets and Space (2017) 69:9 DOI 10.1186/s40623-016-0579-x FULL PAPER Open Access Real‑time earthquake shake, damage, and loss mapping for Istanbul metropolitan area A. Can Zülfikar1,3*, N. Özge Zülfikar Fercan2,3, Süleyman Tunç4 and Mustafa Erdik3 Abstract The past devastating earthquakes in densely populated urban centers, such as the 1994 Northridge; 1995 Kobe; 1999 series of Kocaeli, Düzce, and Athens; and 2011 Van-Erciş events, showed that substantial social and economic losses can be expected. Previous studies indicate that inadequate emergency response can increase the number of casual- ties by a maximum factor of 10, which suggests the need for research on rapid earthquake shaking damage and loss estimation. The reduction in casualties in urban areas immediately following an earthquake can be improved if the location and severity of damages can be rapidly assessed by information from rapid response systems. In this con- text, a research project (TUBITAK-109M734) titled “Real-time Information of Earthquake Shaking, Damage, and Losses for Target Cities of Thessaloniki and Istanbul” was conducted during 2011–2014 to establish the rapid estimation of ground motion shaking and related earthquake damages and casualties for the target cities. In the present study, application to Istanbul metropolitan area is presented. In order to fulfill this objective, earthquake hazard and risk assessment methodology known as Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, which was developed for the Euro-Medi- terranean region within the Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology EC-FP6 project, was used. The current application to the Istanbul metropolitan area provides real-time ground motion information obtained by strong motion stations distributed throughout the densely populated areas of the city. According to this ground motion information, building damage estimation is computed by using grid-based building inventory, and the related loss is then estimated. Through this application, the rapidly estimated information enables public and private emergency management authorities to take action and allocate and prioritize resources to minimize the casualties in urban areas during immediate post-earthquake periods. Moreover, it is expected that during an earthquake, rapid information of ground shaking, damage, and loss estimations will provide vital information to allow appropriate emer- gency agencies to take immediate action, which will help to save lives. In general terms, this study can be considered as an example for application to metropolitan areas under seismic risk. Keywords: Rapid response, Loss estimation and mapping, Shakemaps, Damage estimation, Real-time information, Istanbul city Introduction was to establish rapid estimation of earthquake damages Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earth- and casualties related to ground shaking in target cities quakes is critical for effective emergency response and of Thessaloniki and Istanbul, both of which have experi- public information. The aim of the TUBITAK-109M734 enced devastating earthquakes (Zülfikar 2014). There is research project “Real-time Information of Earthquake no doubt that efficient emergency response management Shaking, Damage, and Losses for Target Cities of Thes- immediately after an earthquake is an essential element of saloniki and Istanbul,” conducted during 2011–2014, earthquake risk reduction. Research works (Coburn and Spence 2002) have shown that poor emergency response or a subsequent disaster can multiply the death toll of an *Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected] earthquake by a maximum factor of 10. During the 1995 1 Present Address: Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Kobe earthquake, natural gas could not be shut off in Gebze Technical University, Cayirova/Kocaeli, Turkey Full list of author information is available at the end of the article heavily damaged areas until 15 h after the event. The high © The Author(s) 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Zülfikar et al. Earth, Planets and Space (2017) 69:9 Page 2 of 15 number of casualties in Kobe is attributed to earthquake- (ELER v3.1, 2010) to be used by European agencies such triggered secondary events such as fire and explosions. as the European Mediterranean Seismological Center During the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, the central govern- (EMSC) for computing and broadcasting near-real-time ing authorities were not aware of the severity and scale earthquake loss estimates to the relevant emergency of the damage until several hours after the event. For response institutions (Strasser et al. 2008a). In this study, the 2011 Van-Erciş earthquake, although an automated the application of an earthquake rapid shaking map and rapid response system was not in place, shakemaps and loss estimation system for Istanbul city is introduced. damage and loss estimation maps were obtained manu- The developed methodology consists of two modules ally immediately after the earthquake information was of analysis: earthquake hazard assessment (EHA) and received. In the view of above examples, there is no doubt earthquake loss assessment (ELA). The EHA module that the presence of a real-time loss estimation applica- produces ground shaking maps of intensity, peak ground tion in metropolitan cities subject to earthquake hazards acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and will provide immediate action and help to mitigate seis- spectral parameters at certain periods by using ground mic risk during a potential future earthquake by provid- motion attenuation relationships; correlations among ing rapid estimation of ground motion shaking maps and shaking intensity and PGA, PGV, and spectral param- damage and loss assessments. eters; and soil condition information. This module also In 1994, the Federal Emergency Management Agency uses the real-time ground motion information obtained (FEMA) released a report (FEMA-249) outlining state- by the strong motion stations distributed throughout the of-the-art methodology for earthquake loss estimation densely populated areas of Istanbul city. The ELA module (FEMA 249 1994). The number of publications on the uses ground motion information from the EHA module, development of loss estimation methodologies and mod- grid-based demography, and building inventory data and eling increased significantly after the 1994 Northridge and provides damage and casualty information. 1995 Kobe earthquakes resulted in substantial economic losses. Methodological development of earthquake loss Istanbul earthquake rapid response network estimation was achieved at the regional scale by imple- Strong ground motions in intensely populated metropoli- menting HAZUS software (2003) in a cooperative work tan cities under seismic risk should be well monitored of National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) and online. For this purpose, a dense strong motion network FEMA. In addition, the Early Post-Earthquake Damage with 110 accelerometers was established in 2002 and Assessment Tool (EPEDAT) was developed by EQE Inter- was placed in populated areas of Istanbul within areas of national (Eguchi et al. 1997) for the California region. In approximately 50 km × 30 km for tracking strong motion Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) developed activities. Currently, acceleration data obtained from this a nowcast system for disseminating real-time information strong motion station network are transmitted online on the parameters of earthquakes, tsunami possibility, instantly to the main data server at Kandilli Observa- and seismic intensity at each observation station. A sys- tory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) by a 3G tem for Real-Time Assessment of Earthquake Disasters in Global System for Mobile communications (GSM) net- Yokohoma (READY), in operation since 1997, was devel- work (KOERI 2013). Earthquake parameters of depth, oped to provide information on the spatial distribution of magnitude, and epicenter location are computed auto- intensity and damage about 20 min after an earthquake. matically by the KOERI-Regional Earthquake-Tsunami The rapid loss estimation systems currently used in Japan Monitoring Center (RETMC 2015) and are displayed on and Taiwan have been described by Yamazaki (2001) and the Web site of RETMC (http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/ Yeh et al. (2006), respectively. sismo/2/latest-earthquakes/list-of-latest-events/). Fig- In Europe, post-earthquake response is coordinated at ure 1 shows a list of the latest earthquakes, and Fig. 2 the national level by the individual civil protection agen- shows the strong motion network in Istanbul. The aim of cies, although separate earthquake loss estimation (ELE) this study is to ensure that assessments of strong ground tools such as KOERILOSS, SIGE-DPC, ESCENARIS, motion distribution can be made within a few minutes SELENA, and DBELA (Strasser et al. 2008b) have been after an earthquake. developed in various European countries. The Open- Quake engine is the seismic hazard and risk assessment Methods software developed recently by the Global Earthquake The main objective of the developed application