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Krause Research Fund Krause Fund Research Spring 2018 Technology Alphabet Inc. (NYSE: GOOGL) Recommendation: Buy April 17, 2018 Analysts Current Price $1,075.39 Brian Cook Target Price $1,125-$1,150 [email protected] Garrett Kula Alphabet Exhibits Potential for [email protected] Carson McGill Continued Growth [email protected] • Industry: Being one of the “Big 5” technology companies, Company Overview Alphabet is forced to continue to innovate if they wish to remain an industry leader and keep up with the rising demand for newer Alphabet is a leading company in the technology sector, it is technology. Based on our research and projections, along with not one of the “Big 5” companies. A large majority of Alphabet’s having a real direct challenger competing with them, we see revenue comes from the advertising revenue from Google. continued growth for Alphabet going forward. Alphabet also invests large amounts of money in developing new technologies, such as The Cloud, that generates “Other • Demand for Technology: In a world becoming increasingly Bets” revenue. Alphabet is currently the 3rd largest company dependent on technology, the demand for innovation has never in the world in terms of total market capitalization, and been higher. Alphabet remains a leader in the industry in terms of although the technology sector has experienced extreme developing new technology and ways to make everyday life volatility over the past few weeks, Alphabet has shown strong easier, and we believe, along with the need for people to get more growth and consistency over the past few years. information faster, will push the company to continue its impressive growth over the past few years. Stock Performance Highlights 52 week High $1,198.00 • Valuation: Alphabet does not pay dividends, so our DCF/EP 52 week Low $834.60 model is the model we feel most confident in. The partial year Beta Value 1.25 adjustment value we calculated is $1,124.34, which is adjusted to Average Daily Volume 2.321 m reflect the current price estimate, rather than at the end of fiscal 2017. Share Highlights Market Capitalization $718.85 b • Challenges: One of Alphabet’s most recognizable, yet Shares Outstanding 349.84 m manageable challenges is dealing with ad-blockers. Since a large Book Value per share $219.50 majority of their revenue comes from the advertisements on Current EPS $18.22 Google, that could be a potentially growing issue for their (Low EPS due to large one-time transition tax in 2017) revenue. Additionally, with the huge impact the technology sector P/E Ratio 29.5 has on the market and everyday life, there is added pressure on an Dividend Yield 0% industry leader like Google to not only meet, but exceed Dividend Payout Ratio 0% expectations. Company Performance Highlights One Year Stock Performance ROA 6.42% ROE 8.30% Sales $110,855 m Financial Ratios Current Ratio 5.14 Debt to Equity 2.6% S ource: Yahoo Finance 1 Economic Analysis U.S. Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s border within a specific time period. GDP relates to how the economy is doing as a whole, and when GDP rises so does the overall amount people spend on certain goods. Advertisers have the opportunity to capitalize on marketing specific products, and since Google is the largest online advertiser, the rise in GDP Source: Trading Economics will increase their revenue streams. The upward trend in consumer spending is favorable for In quarters 2, 3, and 4 of 2017 GDP growth had risen by Google as people more likely to buy hardware products 3.1 %, 3.2 %, and 2.9% respectively . This is high in and use its technology to access websites and increase comparison to recent history as the lowest11 2.9% growth is their exposure to ads. Disposable personal income has still higher than any of the preceding 8 quarters. You can also shown tremendous growth in recent history as it has see GDP growth in the chart listed below: increased $2.5 billion over the last five years . 6 Source: Trading Economics Source: FRED The consumer tech sector’s direct, indirect, and induced value added is responsible for 10.3% of the United States’ With the rise in DPI and consumer spending in the sector, GDP. We believe that the overall GDP will grow by 2.7% tech companies have to keep up with innovation and over the next year, and reach a steady-state of 2.5% over reinvest more of their profit in research and development the next three years. The FED has been increasing interest to satisfy the needs of the consumer. The Big Five tech rates and is expected to keep doing so throughout 2018, companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and which in turn raises the cost of capital. With U.S. GDP Microsoft) have averaged $44 billion per year in being at a peak right now along with these other factors, innovation spending since 2011. The increase in we predict the economy will soon slow down as well as consumer spending along with R&D allows these tech the GDP growth rates with it. companies to increase their market value at a lightning fast pace. We believe that all of these factors will Consumer Spending contribute to the technology sector and it will continue to grow at a fast pace over the next 10 years before starting Consumer spending is a good indicator for the current to reach a steady-state, as it is already the fastest growing state of the economy because it is able to show how much sector in the economy. of the GDP is being used to purchase goods and services rather than invested or saved. In the last five years Current Employment Statistics consumer spending has increased significantly. In particular, spending within the information technology Disregarding the recession in 2008 and 2009, sector has increased by 155% . unemployment in the U.S. tends to generally be low and 15 starts to decrease back down to its normal rates as soon as the event bringing it up ends. The unemployment rate in 2 the U.S. is the lowest it has been since 2000 as seen in the S&P 500 graph below: The S&P is one of the best indicators if how the U.S. economy is doing because it holds the market capitalizations of 500 large companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ. The graph below shows the current breakdown of sectors’ weights in the S&P 500 as of March 29, 2018: Source: FRED Employment is projected to increase by 11.5 million over the next 10 years , the technology field is projected to grow faster than the7 average of all other areas and provide the market with around 550,000 jobs over that time. Although rather volatile by quarter, unemployment in the information technology sector has shown a decreasing pattern and is currently at almost half of what it was in 2010 , as seen in the graph below: 1 Source: SPindicies The IT sector is the largest sector in the index and makes up nearly a quarter of the S&P at 24.9% , up from 20.4% during mid-2017. The S&P was up12 over $1.5 trillion from January 2017 through May 2017, and during this period the Big 5 tech companies made up 37% of those gains; while the rest of the U.S. economy grew at less than 1% . The chart below illustrates the recent booming of tech12 companies as Amazon became more valuable than Walmart in 2015: Source: Statista The constant employment growth rate combined with the high requirements of educated and skilled-labor in the IT sector indicate the economic strength of the area and will have influence on the revenue growth rates of related companies. We believe that the projected rates for unemployment are accurate and that the rate of unemployment will continue to follow these trends unless a catastrophic economic event takes place. Based on all the underlying conditions involved with unemployment we can reasonably assume the unemployment rate of the Source: recode IT sector will continue to be around 4% over the next few years, and then reach a steady-state of 3.5% in three years Digital industries including tech have a productivity due to the current strength of not only the IT sector but growth average of 2.7% annually over the last 15 years, the U.S. economy as a whole. while physical industries grew 0.7% over the same span . The IT sector has outperformed the market as a whole16 every year over the last ten years with the most recent year’s gap being around 13%. We believe the heavy weighting of technology as well as the massive growth the sector has been experiencing due to the ever- 3 increasing demand for technology in everyday lives as well as Waymo, an autonomous vehicle project that is should not be changing anytime soon, and that growth looking to challenge the likes of Tesla in the coming will continue to drive the S&P going forward over the years. next decade. Revenues Market Outlook Online advertising is not only growing in the United Now is the perfect time to invest in IT, as it is the largest States, but worldwide as well. The chart below shows the and fastest growing sector in the market. Over the last five percentage of online ads worldwide as a percent of total years their growth has ranged between 5.6% and 19.3%, advertising spending.
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