A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts And
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POST -SOVIET STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT : THE WEIGHT OF HISTORY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By James C. MacDougall, M.A. Washington, DC April 27, 2009 Copyright 2009 by James C. MacDougall All Rights Reserved ii POST -SOVIET STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT : THE WEIGHT OF HISTORY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS James C. MacDougall, M.A. Thesis Advisor: Angela Stent, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The South Caucasus states of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have shared, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a common strategic environment. To survive as independent states in a turbulent region bordered by Russia, Turkey and Iran, each state has chosen to align themselves with external powers. This study seeks to explain why, despite the many similarities among the three countries, each has taken different alignment decisions, resulting in differing strategic trajectories. Combining elements of Stephen Walt's "balance of threat" theory with elements of decision-making theory, the study argues that both material and perceptual factors are necessary to understand regional alignment behavior. Specifically, the role of history and historical analogy in the development of threat perceptions is analyzed. Official documents, public statements and interviews with current and former high-ranking officials in each of the three countries are used to analyze the foreign policy alignment decisions of successive presidential administrations in the three South Caucasus countries. The study concludes that lessons of history learned through analogical reasoning are a central element in the development of threat perceptions and, in turn, in alignment decisions. In an effort towards bridging the gap between theory and policy, the concluding chapter addresses both the theoretical and policy implications of the study's findings. iii The research and writing of this dissertation is dedicated to Catherine Ann, my wife, without whose love and patience it would not have been possible. I also wish to thank my dissertation committee: Dr. Angela Stent; Dr. George Shambaugh; Dr. Victor Cha; and, in memoriam, Dr. Joseph Lepgold, for their guidance and support. I am grateful to many colleagues in government and in academia, in Washington, Tbilisi, Yerevan, and Baku. I will not attempt to name them all, at the risk of leaving important contributors out. Many Thanks to all, Jim MacDougall iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter One: Introduction .............................................................................................. 1 Chapter Two: Alignment Patterns in the South Caucasus ............................................ 25 Chapter Three: Theoretical Approaches to Alliance Formation ................................... 53 Chapter Four: Decision Making, History and Alignment ............................................ 79 Chapter Five: Georgia ................................................................................................ 103 Chapter Six: Armenia.. .............................................................................................. 157 Chapter Seven: Azerbaijan ........................................................................................ 211 Chapter Eight: Conclusions……………………………………………………….. 269 List of Interviews ........................................................................................................ 293 Bibliography ............................................................................................................... 296 v CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION With the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a new era of geopolitical and economic competition began on the territory of a failed empire that had encompassed one-sixth the land area of the world. A significant result of the Soviet Union’s collapse was the emergence of fifteen newly independent states that formerly had been constituent republics of the Soviet Union. In the Caucasus and Central Asia – a region nearly surrounding the Caspian Sea – eight new states gained their independence. Among these were the three states of the South Caucasus region – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (See Map 1). Sizeable oil and gas deposits in this region exacerbate ethnic, religious and national differences and spur local conflicts and regional competition. To understand new developments, reasoning by historical analogy is an alluring and powerful analytical and descriptive technique. After 1991, it became increasingly commonplace for analysts and observers to compare the geopolitical competition in the Caucasus and Central Asia to the 19 th century duel between the British and Russian empires for control of the region, memorialized by Rudyard Kipling as the “Great Game.” This analogy has led to considerable commentary on what has been called euphemistically the “New Great Game.”1 Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott summarized this succinctly in a 1997 address. 1 See, inter alia, M.E. Ahrari, The New Great Game in Muslim Central Asia . McNair Paper 47, (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, January 1996); Paul Starobin, "The New Great Game, A Special Report," National Journal, March 13, 1999 Number 11; Rajan Menon, “The New Great Game in Central Asia,” Survival , vol. 45, no.2, Summer 2003, pp.187-204; Matthew Edwards, “The New Great Game and the new great gamers: disciples of Kipling and Mackinder,” Central Asian Survey , 22:1, March 2003, pp.83-102; and Kleveman, Lutz, The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2003). The “Great Game” analogy was also on the mind of many Russian commentators. See, for example, Aleksey Gromyko, “The New Great Game,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta , August 20, 1998. p.8. 1 For the last several years, it has been fashionable to proclaim, or at least predict, a replay of the “Great Game” in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The implication, of course, is that the driving dynamic of the region, fueled and lubricated by oil, will be the competition of the great powers to the disadvantage of the people who live there. 2 Later in his remarks, Deputy Secretary Talbott criticized this “Great Game” mentality as counterproductive and dangerous, emphasizing U.S. policy sought to avoid such an “atavistic” outcome in the region. Whatever be its prescriptive merits, the use of the “Great Game” analogy to describe current events in the region poses problems. Most importantly, the actors, or players, in the modern version of the purported game, are not analogous to those of the former. For one, the British Empire is long gone and has no modern analogue in the region. More significant, however, is the fact that today eight independent and sovereign states are themselves essential players in the region. No longer merely pawns on the regional chessboard, the Caucasian and Central Asian states are now primary actors in regional developments. Having gained their independence, the newly independent states were faced, some for the first time in history, with the challenges and responsibilities of autonomous political existence. Fundamental among these challenges has been the requirement of security and survival in the international system. Fateful political decisions on which hinged the future of their states have confronted decision makers. Among the most important of these decisions has been the choice of alliance partners and alignment preferences. In the absence of the integrated and rigid security system of the former Soviet Union, dynamic geopolitical competition has led to the emergence of new strategic 2 Strobe Talbott, “A Farewell to Flashman: American Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia,” U.S. Department of State Dispatch , (July 1997) p.12. 2 alignments in post-Soviet space. The developing pattern of new strategic alignments, while clearly discernable, is not readily interpreted, given the larger expectations suggested by current theories of alliance formation. Explaining the alignment preferences and foreign policy orientations of regional states and the resulting alignment patterns is thus a theoretical challenge. The post-Soviet area where current theory is most hard-pressed to explain developments is the Caucasus region. When the postulates of current alliance formation theories are applied to recent developments in the region, several anomalies arise, creating a puzzle that seems to require for its solution an extension or modification of current theory. The Caucasus is a region historically beset by wars, ethnic conflicts, religious and civil strife. In his book, The Ends of the Earth , Robert Kaplan includes the region as one of the last “frontiers of anarchy.” 3 Though Kaplan refers to the seemingly unrestrained lawlessness endemic to the region, in terms of international relations theory, we see anarchy in another light. In considering the structure of the international state system, anarchy connotes the absence of a governing body or principle which establishes order. As the Soviet Union collapsed and the new states moved towards independence, antagonisms which had been more or less subsumed when the South Caucasus states – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (see Map 2) – were incorporated into the multi-ethnic Soviet empire were rekindled. The collapse of the Soviet security system led to a general disorder which in many cases has yet to be redressed. Analyzing conflicts which erupted when new states, formerly