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Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 Rcms (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4)

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Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 Rcms (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4) hydrology Article Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 RCMs (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4) Ezéchiel Obada 1,2,*, Eric Adéchina Alamou 2, Josué Zandagba 1,2, Amédée Chabi 1,2 and Abel Afouda 2,3 1 International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA), University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Cotonou 072 B.P 50, Benin; [email protected] (J.Z.); [email protected] (A.C.) 2 Laboratory of Applied Hydrology, University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Cotonou 01 BP 4521, Benin; [email protected] (E.A.A.); [email protected] (A.A.) 3 West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), GRP Climate Change and Water Resources, University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Abomey-Calavi BP 2008, Benin * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +229-943-350-38 Academic Editor: Luca Brocca Received: 17 January 2017; Accepted: 13 February 2017; Published: 21 February 2017 Abstract: This study analyzes the impact of climate change on several characteristics of rainfall in the Mekrou catchment for the twenty-first century. To this end, a multi-model ensemble based on regional climate model experiments considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is used. The results indicate a wider range of precipitation uncertainty (roughly between −10% and 10%), a decrease in the number of wet days (about 10%), an increase (about 10%) of the total intensity of precipitation for very wet days, and changes in the length of the dry spell period, as well as the onset and end of the rainy season. The maximum rainfall amounts of consecutive 24 h, 48 h and 72 h will experience increases of about 50% of the reference period. This change in rate compared to the reference period may cause an exacerbation of extreme events (droughts and floods) in the Mekrou basin, especially at the end of the century and under the RCP8.5 scenario. To cope with the challenges posed by the projected climate change for the Mekrou watershed, strong governmental policies are needed to help design response options. Keywords: climate change; precipitation; future projections; trends; extreme events 1. Introduction These last decades, climate change and variability issues have been the main focus of scientists and policy makers around the world. Projected temperatures and precipitation under different scenarios show that climate change will have different impacts in different regions of the globe, with spatio-temporal changes in the occurrence and amounts of rainfall, but usually with an increase in temperature [1–6] in unequal proportions since the Paleolithic period [7,8]. The increase in temperature will affect rainfall and its variability, in particular, droughts and floods [9,10]. The impacts of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, depending on multiple factors, including non-climate stressors and the extent of mitigation and adaptation [11]. According to [12], Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate disturbances due to the diversity of effects of multiple stress and the low adaptive capacity. Recent work in the West African region [13,14], under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios Hydrology 2017, 4, 14; doi:10.3390/hydrology4010014 www.mdpi.com/journal/hydrology Hydrology 2017, 4, 14 2 of 16 of climate change projections indicate that continued warming (1–6.5 ◦C increase in temperature), and great uncertainty in rainfall (between −10% and 10%) will be observed in the Sahel until 2100. According to these authors, the remaining part of West Africa will also experience a more intense extremeHydrology climate 2017 in, 4 the, 14 future, but to a lesser extent. It is also reported by previous studies2 of 16 that the rainy and agricultural seasons will become shorter [15,16] while the torrid, arid and semi-arid climate RCP8.5) scenarios of climate change projections indicate that continued warming (1–6.5 °C increase in will extendtemperature), to Sahel [and17, 18great]. Such uncertainty conditions in rainfall can (between have important −10% and 10%) constraints will be observed on agricultural in the Sahel activities, water resourceuntil 2100. management, According to these etc. authors, the remaining part of West Africa will also experience a more Givenintense the extreme alarming climate regional in the future, predictions, but to a lesser it is extent. important It is also to reported know the by previous precipitation studies that forecasts at local scalesthe inrainy order and to agricultural propose adaptationseasons will become and mitigation shorter [15,16] measures while the falling torrid, within arid and the semi regional‐arid context climate will extend to Sahel [17,18]. Such conditions can have important constraints on agricultural but with local specificities. It is in this vein that this paper was initiated and aims at studying trends in activities, water resource management, etc. annual precipitationGiven the parametersalarming regional (annual predictions, precipitation it is important amounts, to know maximum the precipitation amounts forecasts of rainfall at in 24, 48 and 72local consecutive scales in order hours, to thepropose beginning adaptation and and end mitigation dates of measures the rainy falling season, within the the length regional of the rainy season, thecontext number but with of local wet specificities. days in the It is year, in this the vein length that this of paper the dry was spell initiated period and aims and at total studying intensity of rainfall fortrends very in wet annual days) precipitation in the Mekrou parameters basin (annual over theprecipitation period 1981–2100. amounts, maximum amounts of rainfall in 24, 48 and 72 consecutive hours, the beginning and end dates of the rainy season, the length 2. Studyof Area, the rainy Data season, and Methodthe number of wet days in the year, the length of the dry spell period and total intensity of rainfall for very wet days) in the Mekrou basin over the period 1981–2100. Our study area is the Mekrou watershed in Kompongou. Covering an area of 5670 km2, it is 2. Study Area, Data and Method located in the North of Benin between 1◦300 and 2◦150 East Longitude and 10◦200 and 11◦300 North Latitude. WithOur anstudy elongated area is the Mekrou shape, watershed it covers in three Kompongou. main cities,Covering i.e., an area Kérou, of 5670 Kouand km2, it isé locatedand P éhunco. This watershedin the North belongs of Benin to between the Benin 1°30ʹand side 2°15 ofʹ East the Longitude Niger and Basin. 10°20 Theʹ and 11°30 highestʹ North point Latitude. of watershed With is an elongated shape, it covers three main cities, i.e., Kérou, Kouandé and Péhunco. This watershed Kampuyabelongs (639 to m) the around Benin side Kouand of the Nigeré, while Basin. the The lowesthighest point point of watershed (266 m) is is Kampuya located around(639 m) around Kérou and is preciselyKouandé, in the bed while of the the lowest Mekrou point River (266 m) [19 is]. located The average around Kérou slope and of theis precisely stream in bed the isbed approximately of the 2.47%. TheMekrou soil andRiver the [19]. vegetation The average types slope encounteredof the stream bed in the is approximately basin are ferruginous 2.47%. The soilssoil and on the crystalline bedrock,vegetation histosols, types swamps encountered and fertile in the gallery basin are forests ferruginous [20,21 ].soils The on rainfall crystalline amounts bedrock, between histosols, 1981 and swamps and fertile gallery forests [20,21]. The rainfall amounts between 1981 and 2014 show that the 2014 show that the months of July, August and September are the wettest (Figure1). The discharge of months of July, August and September are the wettest (Figure 1). The discharge of the Mekrou River at 3 −1 3 −1 the MekrouKompongou River at varies Kompongou from 250 m varies3∙s−1 in September from 250 to m 0 m·s3∙s−1 infrom September December to to April. 0 m The·s annualfrom mean December to 3 −1 April. Theof annualflow is about mean 21 ofm3∙ flows−1. High is about flows occur 21 m mostly·s . during High flowsAugust occur to October. mostly during August to October. Figure 1. Seasonal variability of rainfall and discharge in the basin (A: Monthly rainfall amounts over Figure 1. Seasonal variability of rainfall and discharge in the basin (A: Monthly rainfall amounts over 1981–2014; B: Monthly mean of discharge over 2006–2012). 1981–2014; B: Monthly mean of discharge over 2006–2012). The data used in this study are of two types: observed data and simulated data from Regional TheClimate data used Models in this(RCMs). study The are two of types two of types: data are observed daily rainfall data data. and The simulated first were obtained data from from Regional the National Directorate of Meteorology of Benin. Across the whole watershed, 02rain gauges are Climate Modelsavailable: (RCMs).these are the The Kouandé two types and Kérou of data gauges. are daily In addition rainfall to these data. 02 The gauges, first 12 were rain obtainedgauges from the Nationaldistributed Directorate around the of Meteorologybasin are also available of Benin. (Figure Across 2), resulting the whole in a total watershed, of 14 rainfall 02 rainstations. gauges are available:Over these the period are the 1981–2010, Kouand allé andprecipitation Kérou gauges.stations were In additionfunctional. to these 02 gauges, 12 rain gauges distributed aroundThe simulated the basin data are are future also available(RCP4.5 and (Figure RCP8.52 scenarios)), resulting rainfall in a projection total of 14data rainfall of three stations. Over theregional period models 1981–2010, (SMHI all‐RCA4, precipitation MPI‐REMO, stations DMI‐HIRHAM5) were functional.
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