RESEARCH PAPER 04/81 2004 US Presidential and 15 NOVEMBER 2004 Congressional election

results

This Research Paper provides summary results of the elections for the President of the United States and the 109th Congress, held on Tuesday 2 November 2004, as well as the major opinion polls conducted during the campaign. It also briefly considers the results of the Governor elections held in eleven US states and the key ballot measures considered on Election Day.

George W Bush, the 43rd President and Republican incumbent, was re-elected with 51% of the popular vote, defeating his Democrat rival, Senator (48%).

The Republicans retained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives with increased majorities in both chambers. The results in three congressional districts are expected shortly.

This Research Paper will be revised when final results are available. The graphics in the Paper are best viewed in colour.

Ross Young and Jeremy Hardacre

SOCIAL AND GENERAL STATISTICS SECTION Carole Andrews

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AND DEFENCE SECTION

HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY

Recent Library Research Papers include:

04/65 The Civil Partnership Bill [HL]: the detail and legal implications 08.09.04 [Bill 132 of 2003-04] 04/66 The Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe: Part I 06.09.04 04/67 Economic Indicators, September 2004 06.09.04 04/68 Children Bill [HL] [Bill 144 of 2003–04] 10.09.04 04/69 Unemployment by Constituency, August 2004 15.09.04 04/70 Income, Wealth & Inequality 15.09.04 04/71 The Defence White Paper 17.09.04 04/72 The Defence White Paper: Future Capabilities 17.09.04 04/73 The Mental Capacity Bill [Bill 120 of 2003-04] 05.10.04 04/74 Social Indicators [includes articles: Renewable Energy; Summer 08.10.04 Olympic and Paralympic Games - Facts and Figures 1896 to 2004] 04/75 The Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe: Part III 08.10.04 04/76 Unemployment by constituency, September 2004 13.10.04 04/77 The Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe: Part IV and Protocols 21.10.04 04/78 The School Transport Bill [Bill 162 of 2003-04] 25.10.04 04/79 The Gambling Bill [Bill 163 0f 2003-04] 28.10.04 04/80 Economic Indicators [includes article: The EU/US Airbus/ Boeing 01.11.04 WTO Debate]

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ISSN 1368-8456

Summary of main points

This Research Paper provides summary results of the elections for the President of the United States and the 109th Congress, held on Tuesday 2 November 2004.

George W Bush, the 43rd President and Republican incumbent, was re-elected with 51% of the popular vote, defeating his Democrat rival, Senator John Kerry (48%). Bush is expected to receive 284 votes in the Electoral College when the electors meet in their respective states on 13 December 2004. The Electoral College vote will then be confirmed by the US Congress on 6 January 2005. The President will be inaugurated in Washington, D.C. on 20 January 2005.

The Republicans retained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives with increased majorities in both chambers. Run-off elections in two congressional districts in Louisiana are due to be held on 4 December. One district in has yet to declare, although the Democrats are currently 4,000 votes ahead.

Each party lost two Governor elections in the 11 states where these elections were held. The Governor race in Washington State remains too close to call. It could be some weeks before all the votes are re-counted and a winner declared. In 34 states, a number of ballot measures were also considered, including medical malpractice, election reform, same-sex marriages and the legalisation of marijuana for medical purposes.

CONTENTS

I Background 6

A. The election process 6

1. Presidential election 6 2. Congressional elections 9 B. Opinion Polls 13

1. Pre-election opinion polls 13 2. The battleground states 23 3. Exit polls 26 II Election results and ballot measures 31

A. Presidential election 31

B. Congressional elections 32

C. Governor elections 34

D. Ballot measures 34

E. State tables 39

III Further information: website links 66

IV Maps 68

V Appendix 1 – Presidents since 1789 81

VI Appendix 2 – Party affiliations in Congress since 1899 82

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I Background

A. The election process

1. Presidential election

In the United States, a Presidential election is held every four years. The election takes place on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. In 2004, Election Day was Tuesday 2 November.

The President serves a four-year term and can be removed from office only by the process of impeachment. Presidential tenure is limited to no more than two four-year terms, or a maximum of ten years under special circumstances.1

Candidates In 2004, the Republican candidates for President and Vice President were the incumbents, George W Bush and Richard B (Dick) Cheney. The Democrat candidate for President was Senator John Kerry of , with Senator of as his running mate.

The major parties choose their presidential and vice presidential candidates at national party conventions, which are held in the summer before the election. The conventions also adopt the parties’ election manifestos. The delegates to the party conventions are chosen earlier in election year, at state level, by a variety of methods, including primary elections, caucuses, conventions or a combination of these elements. Those candidates for the Presidency and Vice Presidency who represent the major political parties are automatically granted ballot access in all states, whereas third party and independent candidates must satisfy various state requirements, such as gaining a requisite level of public support, through petition signatures or having polled a required number of votes in the most recent state-wide election. In the 2004 election the following third party and independent candidates were on the ballot in a significant number of states: Michael Badnarik (Libertarian Party), David Cobb (Green Party), Ralph Nader (Independent) and Michael Peroutka (Constitution Party).2

The presidential campaigns of the major parties traditionally begin on Labor Day (the first Monday in September), and therefore last approximately two months. The campaign for minor party or independent candidates may begin as early as the candidates wish.

1 This would apply if a twice-elected President had also served two years (or less) of the term of another elected President. (US Constitution, Amendment XXII, ratified 27 February 1951) 2 For details see the table, Presidency 2004: Ballot Access, http://www.politics1.com/p2004-ballots.htm

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The Electoral College The President and Vice President are not elected directly by popular vote, but are chosen by a majority vote of presidential electors, known collectively as the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to the total of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. The District of Columbia (Washington DC), which has a Delegate (as opposed to an elected Representative) in the House,3 has the same number of electors (three) as the least populous states. Thus, the Electoral College currently comprises 538 members, based on 435 Representatives, 100 Senators and three electors for the District of Columbia.

The political parties (or independent candidates) in each state submit a list of prospective electors, who are pledged to their candidate for President and are equal in number to the state’s electoral vote. The major parties usually select their candidates for electors at state party conventions or through appointment by their state party leaders, while third parties and independent candidates designate theirs. Any citizen, other than a Member of Congress or an employee of the federal government, may be chosen to serve as elector, but in practice they are usually selected in recognition of service to their political party.4

There is no federal law requiring electors to vote as they have pledged, but in 29 states and the District of Columbia electors are bound by state law and/or by state or party pledge to cast their vote for the candidate that wins the state-wide popular vote. A number of electors have violated such laws over the years, but the penalties are not very severe. Many constitutional lawyers agree that electors remain free agents, despite state laws, and that, if challenged, such laws would be ruled unconstitutional.5 In the 2000 election, an elector for the District of Columbia cast a blank ballot for President and Vice President in protest at what she regarded as unfair voting rights in the District. This was regarded as an abstention.

The Electoral College never meets as a body. On Election Day voters in each state (and the District of Columbia) cast their votes for the party slate of electors that represents their choice of candidate for President and Vice President. In 48 states and the District of Columbia this is done on a “winner-take-all” basis, with the party slate that wins the most popular votes providing all the electors for that state. The exceptions are and Nebraska, where two electors are chosen by state-wide popular vote and the remainder by popular vote in each congressional district.

3 Delegates may vote only in the House’s Committee of the Whole, which is used to expedite consideration of legislation Its decisions require approval by the whole House. There are also Delegates for the US Virgin Islands, Guam and American Samoa, serving a 2-year term, and a Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico, who serves a 4-year term and has the same voting rights. 4 National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), US Electoral College, http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/selects.html 5 Center for Voting and Democracy, State control of electors (includes list of states with legal control over their electors) , http://www.fairvote.org/e_college/bindingstates.htm

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The allocation of Electoral College votes by state is adjusted after each decennial census, as required, to take account of population changes. The present allocation, based on the 2000 census, is shown in the following table:6

Electoral College votes

Alabama 9 Montana 3 Alaska 3 Nebraska 5 Arizona 10 Nevada 5 Arkansas 6 4 California 55 15 Colorado 9 New Mexico 5 7 New York 31 3 North Carolina 15 District of Columbia 3 North Dakota 3 Florida 27 Ohio 20 15 Oklahoma 7 Hawaii 4 Oregon 7 Idaho 4 21 Illinois 21 Rhode Island 4 Indiana 11 8 Iowa 7 South Dakota 3 Kansas 6 Tennessee 11 Kentucky 8 Texas 34 Louisiana 9 Utah 5 Maine 4 Vermont 3 10 13 Massachusetts 12 Washington 11 Michigan 17 West Virginia 5 Minnesota 10 10 Mississippi 6 Wyoming 3 11 Total 538

Electoral College vote, 13 December 2004 Following the general election, the electors meet in their respective states on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December (13 December in 2004) to vote, in separate ballots, for the President and Vice President. Under the Constitution, candidates for both posts require an absolute majority of Electoral College votes (270 out of 538) to be elected.

Since all the Electoral College votes for each state (and DC) generally go to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in that state, the possibility exists that the presidential candidate who receives a majority (or plurality) of the popular votes nationwide may not receive a majority of the Electoral College votes. This has occurred only four times in the history of the United States, most recently to the Democrat candidate, , in the 2000

6 NARA, The 2004 Presidential Election: provisions of the Constitution and United States Code, http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/2004/04electionbrochure.pdf

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presidential election.7 In 18 presidential elections to date the winning candidate did not receive more than 50% of the popular votes cast,8 most recently George W Bush in 2000.

Confirmation of the election results by Congress, 6 January 2005 Once the Governor of each state has certified the results of the Electoral College vote, they are forwarded to the President of the US Senate (the country’s Vice President, ex officio). The electoral vote certificates are then opened and tallied at a joint session of Congress held on 6 January following the election,9 with the Vice President presiding. The presidential and vice presidential candidates with the most electoral votes and an absolute majority of the votes cast (at least 270 out of 538) are then declared elected.

If no presidential candidate received an absolute majority of electoral votes, the newly elected House of Representatives (regarded as the chamber closest to the people) would select the President from among the top three contenders, with each state delegation in the House casting one vote only, and an absolute majority of the states being required to elect the President. If no candidate for Vice President obtained an absolute majority, then the newly constituted Senate, voting as individuals, would elect a Vice President from the top two contenders. A quorum of two thirds of the members of the Senate and a majority vote are required for the election to be valid.

Inauguration Day, 20 January 2005 On 20 January following the date of the election,10 the President- and Vice President-elect are sworn into office at an inauguration ceremony in Washington DC, on the west side of the Capitol. The terms of the previous President and Vice President end at noon on that day.11 Following an inaugural parade, the President takes the oath of office and delivers his inaugural address.

2. Congressional elections

House of Representatives Elections for members of the House of Representatives (435 seats) take place every second year in even-numbered years, on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. Thus, every second such election coincides with a presidential election, with mid-term House elections in between.

Each of the 50 states has at least one seat in the House of Representatives and the rest of the seats are allocated among the states according to their population. The least populous states (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North and South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming) have only

7 Frederick M Kaiser, American national government: an overview, CRS Report for Congress, 20 May 2003 8 Guide to Congress, 5 ed., 2000, p390 9 On the following day if 6 January falls on a Sunday 10 When inauguration day falls on a Sunday, it is traditional practice for the President to take the oath privately on 20 January, and to hold the public ceremony the following day. 11 US Constitution, Amendment XX, Section 1

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one seat in the House, while California has the largest number of seats (53). Candidates are nominated by primary election in most states, while some states provide for a party convention or committee recommendation in conjunction with a primary.

Representatives are elected by ‘plurality’ vote in the congressional district in which they are candidates (or ‘at-large’, across the state as a whole, in the seven least populous states with only one Representative). This means that the candidate with the largest number of votes – usually, but not necessarily, a majority – is elected. Exceptions to this rule are the District of Columbia (DC), for its Delegate to the House, and Georgia, both of which require a candidate to receive a majority of popular votes in order to be elected.

The composition of the House of Representatives before the 2004 elections was:

Republicans: 227 seats Democrats: 205 seats Independent: 1 seat Vacant: 2 seats Total: 435 seats

218 seats are required for either party to secure a majority. The Speaker of the House has a casting vote.

The Republican Party has held the majority in the House of Representatives since 1995 (on the basis of the 1994 election).

A table showing party affiliations in Congress since 1899 is provided in Appendix 2.

A significant factor in recent House elections has been the impact of partisan redistricting (redrawing of constituency boundaries) by both main parties in various state legislatures. This has created a political landscape in which it has become much more difficult to displace an incumbent and there is less scope for seats to change hands between parties. In Texas a controversial Republican redistricting in 2003 is currently subject to a legal challenge, but in the 2004 election the Republicans won four out of five targeted seats from the Democrats in Texas, thus gaining control of the state’s delegation in the House, with 20 out of 32 seats.12

According to the Washington Post, 35 Representatives across the country were unopposed in the 2004 election and 85 per cent of House incumbents won by landslide majorities of more than 60 per cent. Rob Richie, executive director of the American organisation FairVote, The Center for Voting and Democracy, has commented that “this House election was the least competitive in history”, basing his claim on the fact that, outside Texas, only three incumbents lost their seats.13

12 New York Times, 3 November 2004 13 David S Broder, “Redistricting is creating a US House of Lords”, Washington Post, 11 November 2004

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Senate Each state has two Senators, making a total membership of 100. Senators are elected for six- year terms, which are staggered by dividing Senators into three classes, so that only one third of the Senate is up for election every two years, in even-numbered years. Thus, every second Senate election coincides with a presidential election. Normally, no two Senate seats from the same state will be up for election in the same year. Senators are directly elected by ‘plurality’ vote, with the state serving, in effect, as a single-member district. The candidate with the largest number of votes – usually, but not necessarily, a majority – is elected.

The composition of the Senate before the 2004 election was:

Republicans: 51 seats Democrats: 48 seats Independent: 1 seat Total: 100 seats

51 seats are needed for either party to hold a majority. The Independent Senator has usually voted with the Democrats. Under the Constitution, the Vice President (as President of the Senate, ex officio) casts the deciding vote in the event of a tied vote.

There was a very delicate balance of power in the Senate during the 107th Congress (January 2001-January 2003). Following the 2000 elections, neither party had a majority of seats until June 2001. At the start of the new Congress the Senate was evenly divided between the two parties, but the Democrats held the majority due to the deciding vote of the outgoing Democratic Vice President, Al Gore. Senator Tom Daschle (Democrat, South Dakota) served as majority leader during that period After Inauguration Day on 20 January 2001, the new Republican Vice President, Richard Cheney, held the deciding vote, giving the majority to the Republicans, and Senator Trent Lott (Republican, Mississippi) became majority leader.

In May 2001, Senator James Jeffords of Vermont announced that he was switching from Republican to Independent status with effect from 6 June 2001. His announcement that he would ‘caucus’ with the Democrats gave them a one-seat advantage and control of the Senate. The Republicans regained control after the mid-term elections in November 2002. At the start of the 108th Congress in January 2003 the Republicans held 51 Senate seats, the Democrats 48 with one Independent.14

A table showing party affiliations in Congress since 1899 is provided in Appendix 2.

At the 2004 election the Democrats were defending 19 of the 34 Senate seats up for election while the Republicans were defending 15 seats.

14 Secretary of the US Senate Party Division in the US Senate 1789 to present http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm

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The terms of office of Representatives and Senators elected to the 109th Congress will begin at noon on 3 January 2005. The 109th Congress will last for two years, until January 2007, with each year constituting a separate session. Mid-term elections for the 110th Congress will be held in November 2006.

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B. Opinion Polls

1. Pre-election opinion polls a. Presidential election

The Washington Post daily tracking poll published on 1 November 2004 put President Bush on 49% and Senator Kerry on 48%. The margin between the two candidates did not exceed six percentage points after the tracking poll began at the start of October, and for much of that time just one or two points separated the two candidates. Other polls conducted by a vast array of polling organisations also suggested that there was a narrow margin between the two candidates, although many of the later polls failed to accurately predict the final result (Bush 51%, Kerry 48%). Washington Post Daily Tracking Poll

If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidates are you leaning toward?

percentage Bush Kerry Nader 4 Oct 51 46 0 5 Oct 51 45 0 6 Oct 49 47 0 7 Oct 49 47 0 8 Oct 50 47 1 9 Oct 50 46 1 10 Oct 51 46 1 11 Oct 51 45 1 12 Oct 50 47 1 13 Oct 49 49 1 14 Oct 48 48 1 15 Oct 48 48 1 16 Oct 50 47 2 17 Oct 50 46 2 18 Oct 50 47 1 19 Oct 51 46 1 20 Oct 50 47 1 21 Oct 51 45 1 22 Oct 50 46 1 23 Oct 50 46 1 24 Oct 49 48 1 25 Oct 48 49 1 26 Oct 48 50 1 27 Oct 48 49 1 28 Oct 49 48 1 29 Oct 50 47 0 30 Oct 49 48 1 31 Oct 48 48 1 1 Nov 49 48 1 Result: 2 Nov 51 48 1

Sample: Rolling 3-day sample of circa 1,200 likely voters and 1,600 registered voters Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Source: Washington Post

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Washington Post Daily Tracking Poll

Bush Kerry 55

Bush Result: 50 51% 49% Kerry Result: 48% ercent 48% p

45

40

t t t t t t t t t t t t v ct ct c c c c c c o Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc O O O O O O 4 O 6 O 8 Oc 0 2 4 6 8 1 Nov 1 1 1 1 1 20 22 24 26 28 30 : 2 N lt esu R

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US Presidential Election 2004, Opinion Polling, Likely Voters

Pollster Date Bush Kerry Margin GWU Battleground 1.11 50 46 4 TIPP 1.11 47 44 3 November Average 49 45 4

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 31.10 46 48 -2 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 31.10 49 47 2 TIPP 31.10 45 44 1 GWU Battleground 31.10 49 45 4 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 30.10 46 47 -1 American Research Group 30.10 48 49 -1 TIPP 30.10 47 42 5 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 29.10 47 45 2 Newsweek 29.10 51 45 6 TIPP 29.10 45 44 1 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 28.10 50 45 5 GWU Battleground 28.10 50 45 5 TIPP 28.10 45 45 0 TIPP 27.10 46 43 3 TIPP 26.10 47 43 4 TIPP 25.10 47 42 5 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 24.10 52 46 6 Los Angeles Times 24.10 49 48 1 TIPP 24.10 48 41 7 TIPP 23.10 47 43 4 Newsweek 22.10 48 47 1 TIPP 22.10 47 44 3 GWU Battleground 21.10 49 45 4 TIPP 21.10 45 45 0 TIPP 20.10 45 44 1 TIPP 19.10 45 45 0 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 18.10 48 43 5 TIPP 18.10 45 45 0 CBS/New York Times 17.10 47 46 1 TIPP 17.10 47 44 3 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 16.10 52 44 8 TIPP 16.10 47 43 4 Newsweek 15.10 50 45 5 Time 15.10 48 48 0 TIPP 15.10 47 44 3 TIPP 14.10 47 43 4 GWU Battleground 14.10 49 46 3 3rd Presidential Debate: 13 October Scripps Centre, Ohio Univ. 13.10 48 47 1 TIPP 13.10 46 42 4 TIPP 12.10 46 43 3 CBS 11.10 47 46 1 ICR 11.10 49 46 3 TIPP 11.10 45 44 1 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10.10 48 50 -2 2nd Presidential Debate: 8 October Time 7.10 47 46 1 GWU Battleground 7.10 49 46 3 Vice-Presidential Debate: 5 October ICR 5.10 51 46 5 American Research Group 4.10 46 47 -1 Fox/Opinion Dynamics 4.10 48 45 3 CBS/New York Times 3.10 48 47 1 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 3.10 49 49 0 Zogby 3.10 46 45 1 October Average 48 45 2

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US Presidential Election 2004, Opinion Polling, Likely Voters (ctd)

Pollster Date Bush Kerry Margin First Presidential Debate: 30 September GWU Battleground 30.09 52 44 8 Los Angeles Times 28.09 51 46 5 ICR 28.09 51 43 8 IBD/CSM/TIPP 27.09 45 46 -1 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 26.09 52 44 8 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 22.09 45 43 2 Democracy Corps (D) 21.09 49 49 0 Zogby 19.09 47 44 3 Gallup 15.09 55 42 13 Democracy Corps (D) 14.09 49 48 1 New Democrat Network (D) 12.09 49 45 4 ICR 12.09 52 44 8 IBD/CSM/TIPP 12.09 47 47 0 Zogby 9.09 47 45 2 Time 9.09 54 42 12 Democracy Corps (D) 9.09 50 47 3 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8.09 47 45 2 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5.09 52 45 7 ICR 5.09 48 47 1 Time 2.09 53 43 10 Zogby 2.09 46 44 2 American Research Group 1.09 48 47 1 September Average 50 45 5

ABC/Washington Post 29.08 49 49 0 ICR 29.08 46 50 -4 Time 26.08 48 48 0 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 25.08 44 45 -1 Gallup 25.08 50 47 3 NPR 24.08 45 50 -5 GWU Battleground 17.08 47 49 -2 Zogby 14.08 43 50 -7 Gallup 11.08 50 47 3 ICR 8.08 48 48 0 Time 5.08 44 51 -7 Democracy Corps (D) 5.08 45 52 -7 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 4.08 43 48 -5 ABC/Washington Post 1.08 48 49 -1 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 1.08 51 47 4 August Average 47 49 -2

Source: PollingReport.com

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US Presidential Election 2004, Opinion Polling, Registered Voters

Pollster Date Bush Kerry Margin FOX/Opinion Dynamics 31.10 45 48 -3 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 31.10 47 48 -1 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 30.10 45 47 -2 American Research Group 30.10 48 49 -1 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 29.10 46 46 0 Newsweek 29.10 48 45 3 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 28.10 47 47 0 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 24.10 49 48 1 Los Angeles Times 24.10 47 48 -1 Newsweek 22.10 47 47 0 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 16.10 50 46 4 Newsweek 15.10 48 47 1 Time 13.10 46 46 0 3rd Presidential Debate: 13 October Scripps Center, Ohio Univ. 13.10 45 50 -5 ICR 11.10 48 46 2 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10.10 48 48 0 2nd Presidential Debate: 8 October Time 7.10 43 44 -1 Vice-Presidential Debate: 5 October ICR 5.10 50 46 4 American Research Group 4.10 45 48 -3 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 3.10 49 48 1 Newsweek 2.10 46 49 -3 October Average 47 47 0

First Presidential Debate: 30 September Los Angeles Times 28.09 49 45 4 ICR 28.09 50 43 7 IBD/CSM/TIPP 27.09 44 44 0 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 26.09 54 41 13 Time 23.09 48 44 4 CBS 22.09 49 41 8 NBC/Wall Street Journal 19.09 49 46 3 IBD/CSM/TIPP 18.09 44 43 1 CBS 16.09 50 42 8 Gallup 15.08 52 44 8 ICR 12.09 49 45 4 IBD/CSM/TIPP 12.09 44 46 -2 Newsweek 10.09 50 45 5 Time 9.09 51 39 12 CBS 8.09 50 42 8 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5.09 49 48 1 ICR 5.09 46 47 -1 Newsweek 3.09 54 43 11 Time 2.09 50 42 8 American Research Group 1.09 46 48 -2 September Average 49 44 5

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US Presidential Election 2004, Opinion Polling, Registered Voters (ctd)

Pollster Date Bush Kerry Margin ABC/Washington Post 29.08 48 49 -1 ICR 29.08 44 51 -7 Gallup 25.08 47 48 -1 Los Angeles Times 24.08 49 46 3 IBD/CSM/TIPP 23.08 44 44 0 CBS 18.08 44 47 -3 Gallup 11.08 48 47 1 ICR 8.08 45 50 -5 Time 5.08 43 51 -8 IBD/CSM/TIPP 5.08 43 49 -6 FOX/Opinion Dynamics 4.08 43 46 -3 ABC/Washington Post 1.08 45 52 -7 American Research Group 1.08 46 49 -3 CBS 1.08 43 49 -6 CBS 1.08 44 51 -7 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 1.08 48 48 0 August Average4549-3

Source: PollingReport.com b. Congressional election

As with the presidential election polls, there was considerable variation in the outcomes predicted by the pollsters in the congressional race, and none of the polls conducted towards the end of the campaign consistently predicted the final outcome. The last GWU Battleground poll conducted before Election Day suggested that the Republicans enjoyed a lead of three percentage points over the Democrats among likely voters in the congressional election (Republican 47%, Democrat 44%). However, a CNN/Gallup poll published around the same time indicated a slight lead of one percentage point for the Democrats over the Republicans (Democrat 48%, Republican 47%) among likely voters but a lead of four points among registered voters (Democrat 49%, Republican 45%). Other polls suggested that the margin between the two parties was much narrower, although most pointed to a continuing lead for the Democrats, an outcome that was not realised on Election Day. While the final composition of the House is yet to be fully determined, the Republicans now enjoy a majority of thirty seats over the Democrats, while in the Senate the Republicans retain control with 55 seats compared to the 44 Senate seats held by the Democrats. Such a significant margin between the parties was not consistently anticipated by those congressional opinion polls conducted close to Election Day.

Further details of the congressional opinion polls conducted during the campaign are provided in the tables below:

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CNN/USA Today/Gallup

"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" Options rotated

Republican Democrat Other/ Undecided Among likely voters: 29-31 October 2004 47 48 5 22-24 October 50 47 3 3-5 September 48 46 6 30 July-1 August 47 47 6 January 2004 50 45 5

Among registered voters: 29-31 October 2004 45 49 6 22-24 October 47 49 4 3-5 September 44 48 8 30 July-1 August 44 49 7 January 2004 46 45 9 November 2003 47 46 7

Latest poll sample: n=1,866 registered voters, 1,573 likely voters nationwide Margin of error +/- 3.0%

Newsweek (Princeton Survey Research Associates)

"If the election for the U.S Congress were being held today would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of today do you lean more toward the Republican or the Democrat?" Options rotated

Republican Democrat Other/ Undecided Among likely voters: 27-29 October 2004 49 44 7 21-22 October 47 46 7 14-15 October 46 44 10

Among registered voters: 27-29 October 2004 46 45 9 21-22 October 45 45 10 14-15 October 43 46 11 29-30 July 41 51 8 18-19 March 42 49 9

Latest poll sample: n=1,008 registered voters and 880 likely voters nationwide Margin of error +/- 4.0%

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George Washington University (Tarrance Group (Rep) and Lake Snell Perry & Associates (Dem))

"If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?" Options rotated

Republican Democrat Unsure 31 Oct-1 Nov 2004 47 44 9 27-28 October 46 43 11 25-28 October 44 44 12 18-21 October 43 46 12 11-14 October 40 44 16 4-7 October 42 43 15 27-29 September 42 45 12 20-23 September 44 44 13 13-16 September 42 45 14 15-17 August 43 46 11 20-23 June 41 49 11 28-31 March 39 46 14 September 2003 42 43 15

Latest poll sample: n=1,000 likely voters nationwide Margin of error +/- 3.1%

NBC News/Wall Street Journal (Peter Hart (Dem) and Bill McInturff (Rep))

"What is your preference for the outcome of November's congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"

Republicans Democrats Not Sure Among likely voters: 29-31 October 2004 43 44 13 16-18 October 44 44 12

Among registered voters: 17-19 September 2004 42 46 12 25-28 June 42 44 14 1-3 May 41 44 15 6-8 March 42 45 13

Among all adults: January 2004 42 43 15 December 2003 42 42 16

Latest poll sample: n=1,014 likely voters nationwide Margin of error +/- 3.0%

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Democracy Corps (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (Dem))

"Again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the elections this year, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"

Republican Democrat Not Other Sure 26-28 October 2004 45 48 5 1 26-27 October 45 47 6 2 24-25 October 42 51 6 1 20-21 October 44 49 6 1 17-18 October 46 48 5 1 14-16 October 45 49 5 1 10-11 October 45 48 6 1 3-5 October 45 49 6 1 26-28 September 46 47 5 2 19-21 September 45 48 6 1 12-14 September 44 48 7 1 6-9 September 45 46 7 2 2-5 August 41 51 6 2 10-13 July 42 49 8 1 14-17 June 44 48 8 1 10-13 May 44 46 9 1 19-22 April 45 47 8 0 16-21 March 45 47 7 1 10-15 February 42 49 8 0 13-18 January 43 48 9 1

October 2003 42 48 9 1 September 2003 42 47 11 1 August 2003 39 45 15 1 July 2003 45 44 10 2 June 2003 44 43 11 1 May 2003 45 43 11 1 January 2003 43 44 11 1

May not sum to 100% due to rounding Latest poll sample: n=1,030 likely voters nationwide Margin of error +/- 3.1%

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Associated Press-Ipsos (Ipsos-Public Affairs)

"And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?"

Republicans Democrats Not Neither Sure Among likely voters: 18-20 October 2004 46 47 3 4 4-6 October 44 48 3 5 20-22 September 49 46 2 3 7-9 September 49 46 2 3

Among registered voters: 7-9 September 2004 47 45 3 5 3-5 August 44 48 2 6 5-7 July 43 47 4 6 7-9 June 42 47 4 7 3-5 May 41 50 3 6 5-7 April 43 46 3 8 1-3 March 43 44 5 8 2-4 February 41 44 4 11 5-7 January 44 42 5 9

1-3 December 2003 42 44 4 10 21-23 October 44 44 4 8 7-9 October 43 46 4 7 19-21 September 40 45 6 9 17-19 June 40 47 3 10 3-5 June 42 42 6 10 20-22 May 45 43 4 8 6-8 May 41 45 5 9 15-17 April 47 39 4 10 1-3 April 47 41 4 8 18-20 March 44 41 4 11 4-6 March 39 43 6 12

Latest poll sample: n=944 likely voters nationwide Margin of error +/- 3.5%

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CBS News/New York Times

If the 2004 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?

Republican Democrat Don't Depends Know Among likely voters 14-17 October 2004 39 45 9 7

Among registered voters 12-16 September 2004 39 41 12 8 11-15 July 37 46 9 8 10-14 March 38 42 12 8

Latest poll sample: n=931 registered voters and 678 likely voters nationwide Margin of error +/- 3%

2. The battleground states

The result of the 2000 presidential election demonstrated how closely the United States was divided politically, and opinion polls in the run-up to the 2004 election suggested that this was still the case. Congressional Quarterly regarded this as “the climax of a trend that has been building for a generation”.15 In a recent analysis of voting in presidential elections since 1988 it concluded:

Though only nine states and the District of Columbia have been carried by the Democratic nominee in all four of the presidential elections since 1988, a dozen states have done so three times – meaning 21 states (plus DC) have developed a clear Democratic presidential tilt. At the same time, 16 states have voted for the GOP [Republican] nominee in all four of the most recent presidential races, while five others have gone Republican three times – yielding a parallel 21 states with pronounced GOP tilt in recent national races. That leaves only eight states that have been carried by each party twice in the last four elections.16

Even in a closely fought election, one or other of the two main parties tacitly concedes the result in some 30 to 40 states under the winner-takes-all system of the Electoral College. The prime focus of the election campaign is, therefore, on the ‘battleground’ or ‘swing’ states that have a high percentage of voters without strong party affiliations, and the outcome of the election is likely to depend on the results in these states. In the 2000 presidential election the potential importance of an individual state’s vote became very

15 CQ Weekly, 28 August 2004, p1972. 16 Ibid. The eight states are: Nevada, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and New Hampshire. In all of these states, except New Hampshire, George W Bush obtained 50-57% of the vote in 2000.

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evident, when the result in Florida was so close that ultimately a Supreme Court ruling was required to determine the result and thus the outcome of the election.

During the 2004 election campaign there was no overall consensus on the list of battleground states: the number of states identified as such varied between 10 and 20, and the states included changed to some extent as the campaign progressed. However, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania were consistently regarded as key swing states, since they were closely contested in 2000 and together they account for 68 Electoral College votes (25 per cent of the 270 needed to win). Many commentators stated that the candidate who won two out of these three states would become President: George W Bush won Ohio and Florida in 2000 and 2004, while the Democrats won Pennsylvania in both elections.

In the 2000 election, the difference in votes cast for each of the two main candidates was less than one per cent in Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin, and all of these states were widely identified as battleground states in 2004. Missouri is regarded as the ultimate “bellwether state”, giving an indicator of the election result, because over a period of 100 years it has only once failed to support the party whose candidate became President.17 It voted Republican in 2000 and 2004.

The 2004 Battleground States Poll conducted by Zogby International was based on 16 states which, together, accounted for 177 out of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. In the 2000 election George W Bush won eight of these states by narrow margins, while Al Gore won the other eight. The battleground states were (Electoral College votes in brackets):

Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee (11), Washington (11), West Virginia (5), Wisconsin (10)

A table showing the percentage lead for the parties in the sixteen battleground states in each of the Zogby polls conducted between 24 May and Election Day is provided overleaf. While most of the later polls accurately predicted the winning party in each state, in some states there was considerable uncertainty across the time series. In Florida and Iowa, the poll conducted on the day before Election Day incorrectly suggested a Democrat victory, while Zogby predicted that the race in New Mexico was too close to call. In Florida, President Bush ultimately secured victory by a margin of five percentage points, while in Iowa and New Mexico the margin between Bush and Kerry was much narrower.

17 Roland Watson, “All to play for in the king of swing states”, Times, 8 October 2004, p21

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Battleground states: opinion polls - percentage lead by Presidential candidate (including winner in 2000 and 2004)

2000 24.05.04 07.06.04 21.06.04 12.07.04 26.07.04 02.08.04 23.08.04 07.09.04 20.09.04 06.10.04 19.10.04 28.10.04 01.11.04 2004 Arkansas 4.8 7.7 2.1 2.2 2.8 1.5 2.6 1.7 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.5 3.2 Florida 1.4 1.6 4.2 6.6 0.1 2.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 Iowa 5.2 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.8 3.9 7.0 3.7 3.0 6.6 3.2 1.0 6.0 Michigan 8.3 4.0 0.7 5.9 8.7 7.5 5.2 6.6 6.0 9.7 6.7 2.0 7.0 Minnesota 9.3 7.1 4.6 5.2 6.4 8.1 5.7 6.8 9.7 8.3 11.1 1.0 2.0 Missouri 3.3 1.0 0.7 3.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 5.4 2.2 3.1 7.7 4.2 Nevada 3.8 3.5 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.6 1.7 0.6 2.2 1.0 3.9 5.0 5.0 New Hampshire 9.6 4.3 3.3 9.0 4.6 8.9 7.2 4.7 3.6 6.6 5.1 5.9 4.5 New Mexico 5.1 0.4 6.9 7.3 9.8 1.5 5.6 9.7 12.7 11.4 9.5 6.0 0.0 Ohio 4.6 2.8 5.4 0.7 1.3 5.0 5.6 10.9 3.3 0.3 3.0 3.0 4.0 Oregon 5.4 5.9 6.6 9.2 9.2 4.0 11.3 9.7 12.0 10.1 13.1 1.6 10.1 Pennsylvania 8.2 6.6 7.0 7.3 6.5 8.0 8.3 2.8 3.1 5.4 5.7 0.0 5.0 Tennessee 2.5 11.7 18.8 0.0 2.2 1.8 1.9 9.6 5.5 0.9 2.5 1.8 3.3 Washington 8.1 7.4 6.4 8.2 7.6 7.8 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.2 West Virginia 2.4 3.1 6.0 8.2 3.9 3.4 7.8 9.0 12.4 6.1 2.8 9.3 4.5 Wisconsin 8.2 5.9 4.4 9.4 4.3 1.9 4.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.8 3.0 7.0

Republican (Bush/Cheney) Democrat (Kerry/Edwards) Even

* Margins of error do not exceed 5.1%

Source: Zogby International

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3. Exit polls

The main national exit poll was carried out by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International for Associated Press and the main television networks. The sample comprised 13,660 registered voters who had cast a ballot in the presidential election. The key findings were:

• Gender: Kerry gained more support from women voters (51%) whereas Bush polled more strongly among men (55%). • Ethnicity: Bush led decisively among white voters (58%). Around nine-in-ten Democrat voters were black (88%) and 53% of the Latino/Hispanic population voted for Kerry. • Age: Kerry tended to poll more strongly among younger voters aged 18-to-29 (54%) whereas those aged over 60 tended to favour Bush (54%). • Union membership continued to be a reasonably good indicator of support for the Democrats. 61% of voters who were union members voted for Kerry while 54% of non-union members voted for Bush. • Party identification remained strong. Only 11% of Democrats voted for Bush while 6% of Republicans voted for Kerry. Independents were split almost evenly between the two candidates. • It was anticipated that Kerry would benefit significantly from the support of new voters. However, while a majority of new voters supported Kerry (53%), 46% supported Bush. • Religion: Support for President Bush was particularly strong among Protestant Christian Americans (59%). Among Catholic voters, support was more evenly split between the two candidates. Jewish voters and voters of other non-Christian faiths showed significant support for Kerry (both 74%) while two-in-three voters of no faith also supported the Democrats (67%). • Gun owners tended to support the Republican Bush-Cheney ticket (63%) while non-gun owners favoured the Democrat ticket of Kerry and Edwards (57%). • Bush supporters were more likely to feel safe from terrorism compared with four years ago (79%) while Kerry supporters tended to feel less safe (85%). • Similarly, Bush voters were more likely to ‘strongly approve’ (94%) or ‘somewhat approve’ (75%) of the decision to engage in military action in Iraq. Kerry’s voters were more likely to somewhat (73%) or strongly disapprove (94%) of the decision to ‘go to war’. • Abortion remained a clear dividing issue between Republicans and Democrats. Bush supporters were more likely to favour the illegalisation of abortion, either in all cases (77%) or in most cases (73%). However, most Kerry supporters thought that abortion should be legal in all cases (73%) or most cases (61%).

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• Democrats were more likely to support gay and lesbian couples being able to marry (77%) whereas most Republicans thought that there should be no legal recognition of these relationships (70%).18

Further information is provided in the table overleaf.

The results and the management of exit polls were criticised after the election. Opinion polling in the US has been the subject of considerable scrutiny since the problems encountered during the 2000 presidential election, in particular the premature predictions of the final result in states such as Florida, resulting in a subsequent congressional investigation.

The Washington Post revealed that on election night there was a substantial ‘blackout’ of data reporting which resulted in a predicted lead for Senator Kerry over President Bush. Several waves of the exit polls had suggested that Kerry had a two or three percentage point lead over Bush nationally, and in several key states including Ohio. Moreover,

…in two instances on election night – the results for Virginia and South Carolina – the [television] networks held off projecting a winner when voting ended because exit polls showed that the races were too close to call, only to see President Bush win easily in both states.19

However, the exit pollsters Edison Media Research countered that “no wrong projections [of winners] were given”, overall the projections made by their organisation “were spot on”, and that the polls had been affected by pre-emptive leaking of the predicted results during the course of Election Day.20

18 Associated Press National Exit Polls: Presidential Election (2 November 2004) 19 “New woes surface in use of estimates”, Washington Post (4 November 2004) 20 ibid.

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Analysis of Associated Press Exit Poll, 2004 US Presidential election, 2 November 2004

percentage, voters casting ballot in Presidential election

All voters Bush voters Kerry voters Gender Male 46 55 44 Female 54 48 51

Ethnicity White 77 58 41 Black 11 11 88 Hispanic/Latino 8 44 53 Asian 2 44 56 Other 2 40 54

Age 18-29 17 45 54 30-44 29 53 46 45-59 30 51 48 60 or over 24 54 46

Family Income (2003, total) Under $15,000 8 36 63 $15,000-$29,999 15 42 57 $30,000-$49,999 22 49 50 $50,000-$74,999 23 56 43 $75,000-$99,999 14 55 45 $100,000-$149,999 11 57 42 $150,000-$199,999 4 58 42 $200,000 or more 3 63 35

Union member Yes 14 38 61 No 86 54 45

Education Did not complete high school 4 49 50 High school graduate 22 52 47 Some college or associate degree 32 54 46 College graduate 26 52 46 Postgraduate study 16 44 55

Partisanship Democrat 37 11 89 Republican 37 93 6 Independent or something else 26 48 49

Political standpoint Liberal 21 13 85 Moderate 45 45 54 Conservative 34 84 15

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All voters Bush voters Kerry voters First-time voter Yes 11 46 53 No 89 51 48

Religion Protestant/Other Christian 54 59 40 Catholic 27 52 47 Jewish 3 25 74 Something else 7 23 74 None 10 31 67

Religious worship frequency More than once a week 16 64 35 Once a week 26 58 41 A few times a month 14 50 49 A few times a year 28 45 54 Never 15 36 62

US military service Yes 18 57 41 No 82 49 50

Gun ownership Yes 41 63 36 No 59 43 57

When decided how to vote in Presidential election Just today 5 45 52 In the last three days 4 42 55 Sometime last week 2 51 48 During the last month 10 44 54 Before that 78 53 46

Most important issue in Presidential election Taxes 5 57 43 Education 4 26 73 Iraq 15 26 73 Terrorism 19 86 14 Economy/Jobs 20 18 80 Moral values 22 80 18 Health care 8 23 77

Most important candidate quality He cares about people like me 9 24 75 He has strong religious faith 8 91 8 He is honest and trustworthy 11 70 29 He is a strong leader 17 87 12 He is intelligent 7 9 91 He will bring about needed change 24 5 95 He has clear stands on the issues 17 79 20

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All voters Bush voters Kerry voters Compared to four years ago, is the United States… Safer from terrorism 54 79 20 Less safe from terrorism 41 14 85

How do you feel about the U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq? Strongly approve 29 94 6 Somewhat approve 23 75 24 Somewhat disapprove 15 25 73 Strongly disapprove 31 5 94

Compared to four years ago, family's financial situation is… Better today 32 80 19 Worse today 28 20 79 About the same 39 49 50

Abortion should be: Legal in all cases 21 25 73 Legal in most cases 34 38 61 Illegal in most cases 26 73 26 Illegal in all cases 16 77 22

Gay and lesbian couples: Allowed to legally marry 25 22 77 Allowed to legally form civil unions, but not marry 35 52 47 No legal recognition of such relationships 37 70 29

Sample: 13,660 registered voters Polling undertaken by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International for Associated Press and others

Source: Associated Press

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II Election results and ballot measures

A. Presidential election

The Republican incumbent and 43rd President, George W Bush, and his vice presidential nominee and incumbent, Dick Cheney, polled almost 60 million votes or 51% of the popular vote. Bush is expected to receive 284 votes in the Electoral College when the electors meet in their respective state capitals on 13 December 2004, fourteen votes more than the 270 votes required. The Democrat ‘ticket’ of Senators John Kerry (Massachusetts) and John Edwards (North Carolina) polled 56.25 million votes, or 48% of the popular vote. Kerry is expected to receive 254 electoral votes in the Electoral College, sixteen votes short of the 270 votes required.

With the exception of the controversial 2000 presidential election (Bush: 271 votes; Gore: 266 votes), the thirty Electoral College vote margin between the two candidates in the 2004 election will be the closest since 1916 when Woodrow Wilson, the Democrat incumbent, beat Charles Hughes (Republican) by 277 electoral votes to 254.

2004 Presidential Election Elec. Coll. Votes % votes Bush/Cheney Republican 59,729,952 51.0% 284 Kerry/Edwards Democrat 56,249,551 48.0% 254 Nader/Camejo Independent 405,723 0.3% 0 Others 679,505 0.6% 0 Total 117,064,731 100.0% 538

In the presidential election, the Republicans received their highest shares of the vote in Utah (71%), Dick Cheney’s home state of Wyoming (69%), and Idaho (69%). In the President’s home state of Texas, the Republicans polled 61% of the vote. The Democrats polled particularly strongly in a number of the north-eastern states, including Senator Kerry’s home state of Massachusetts (62%), Rhode Island (60%) and Vermont (59%).21

At 59.6% of the voting age population, turnout in the 2004 presidential election was the highest since 1968 when the Republican, , beat (Democrat) by just 0.7% of the popular vote. Turnout in 2004 was also the fifth highest over the period covering the nineteen presidential elections since 1932.

21 The Democrats also polled a 90% share of the vote in Washington, DC.

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Turnout in US Presidential elections since 1932

70

65 62.8 61.6 61.9 60.9 59.6 est. 60 58.9 59.3

56.9 56.0 t 55.2 55.2 en 55

erc 59.6 53.3 p 52.5 52.6 51.1 51.2 50.1 50 49.0

45

40 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

B. Congressional elections

The Democrats lost several seats in the US House of Representatives and Senate, most notably the seat of the Senate’s Minority Leader, Tom Daschle (South Dakota), the first Senate leader to lose their seat since 1952. Daschle was defeated by former Representative (1997-2003) John Thune, who came within 524 votes of defeating the state's other Democrat Senator in 2002. Senator Daschle had been in the Senate for 18 years and the Democrat Leader in the chamber for ten years. Republicans gained four seats in the Senate, taking their seat total to 55 compared to the Democrats’ 44 seats.

In the southern states, a number of retirements of Democrat incumbents may explain several significant Republican gains made in the region, including South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, and Louisiana. The Democrats gained Senate seats in Illinois and Colorado. As some commentators have observed, the Republicans are still short of the 60 Senate seats that are typically needed to break a filibuster, so the Democrats continue to have significant political leverage over the Republican agenda. The number of women in the Senate continues to be fourteen, the highest ever. Before 1992, no more than two women had ever served in the Senate at any one time.

In the House of Representatives, the results in three congressional districts remain undeclared – the race in two districts in Louisiana will be decided by a run-off election on 4 December, while the contest in New York’s 27th District is expected to be decided towards the end of November. Preliminary results suggest that the Republicans will have more seats in the House and the Senate than after their watershed 1994 election when they won control of both chambers for the first time in forty years. The Washington Post observed that

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...the focus of the power in the Senate moves dramatically to the right…that shift could have broad consequences because in recent years the Senate has played an important role in tempering the House’s conservative leanings. Another dynamic that could push the Senate further to the right is Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s plan to give up his seat after 2006. The Tennessee Republican is a likely presidential prospect in 2008 – an ambition that may require him to keep in the good graces of the party’s conservative base. 22

In the 2004 elections, only seven out of the 402 incumbents seeking re-election lost their House seats (Democrat 5, Republican 2), an incumbent re-election rate of 98%.23

109th Congress, seat allocation

House Senate seats change seats change Republican 231 4 55 4 Democrat 200 -3 44 -4 Independent 1 1 1 0 Still to declare* 3 0 Total 435 100

* Louisiana: Districts 3 and 7 - runoff elections to be held on 4 December 2004 Republican candidates were initial winners in both districts New York: District 27 not yet confirmed - Democrat candidate ahead by 4,000 votes after 99% of precincts counted

109th Congress, composition of the House of Representatives

Republican Democrat won change won change Total 231 4 200 -3 Women 23 2 42 3 Hispanic 4 0 19 1 Black 0 3 40 0 Newly elected 32 -2 20 -2

Data based on 432 seats declared

Source: Associated Press

Party affiliations in the US Congress since 1899 are shown in Appendix 2.

22 “GOP plans major push in Congress”, Washington Post (4 November 2004) 23 Associated Press

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C. Governor elections

Governor elections were held in eleven states. The Republicans and Democrats each lost the governorships of two states. The Republicans now have the governorships of 28 states while the Democrats control 21. The governorship race in Washington is still too close to call and it may be some weeks before the final result is known.

In New Hampshire and Montana, the Democrats defeated the Republican incumbents, while in Indiana and Missouri the Republicans beat the incumbent Democrats. In Indiana, the Democrats had held the governorship for sixteen years.

Results of Governor elections by state

Win State Inc. Total votes Republican Democrat Others Votes % Votes % Votes % Delaware 364,724 166,991 45.8% 185,531 50.9% 12,202 3.3% Indiana 2,436,311 1,298,615 53.3% 1,105,572 45.4% 32,124 1.3% Missouri* 2,712,119 1,380,200 50.9% 1,296,362 47.8% 35,557 1.3% Montana* 445,138 204,863 46.0% 224,506 50.4% 15,769 3.5% New Hampshire 665,780 326,007 49.0% 339,773 51.0% … … North Carolina 3,385,067 1,462,353 43.2% 1,871,856 55.3% 50,858 1.5% North Dakota 308,938 220,133 71.3% 84,632 27.4% 4,173 1.4% Utah* 832,354 473,814 56.9% 350,841 42.2% 7,699 0.9% Vermont 308,503 181,274 58.8% 117,191 38.0% 10,038 3.3% Washington* 2,628,187 1,286,534 49.0% 1,284,411 48.9% 57,242 2.2% West Virginia* 734,580 250,831 34.1% 465,636 63.4% 18,113 2.5%

Washington: too close to call Win: Winner Inc: party of current governor * incumbent Governor not seeking re-election

Source: Associated Press

D. Ballot measures

Also on Election Day, 163 ballot measures were considered in 34 states. Major topics included medical malpractice, election reform, same-sex marriages and the legalisation of marijuana.

In Montana, it was accepted that registered patients with debilitating conditions such as cancer, glaucoma and HIV/Aids could grow and possess a limited amount of marijuana for their own personal use. In Alaska and Oregon, however, this measure was rejected. The measure that provided for legal recognition of same-sex couples was rejected in all states in which it was considered. In several states, the ballot measure also explicitly affirmed that marriage could only be between a man and a woman.

In Maine, the proposal to cap the threshold for property and personal property taxes at one percent of the full cash value of the property (in 1996-97 prices) with effect from 1 April 2005 was rejected. In Arizona, a measure was accepted whereby persons would

34 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81 be required to provide proof of US citizenship when registering to vote or claiming non- federal benefits through state or local agencies.

Colorado rejected a proposed amendment to abolish the ‘winner-takes-all’ method of allocating the state’s Electoral College votes by replacing it with a proportional system based on the popular vote in the presidential election. A measure proposed in California to tighten the state’s “three strikes” policy for convicted serious offenders was rejected while a measure to provide public funding for stem cell research was accepted.

In some states there were additional ballot measures concerning medical malpractice claims (accepted in Florida and Nevada; rejected in Oregon and Wyoming) and proposals to raise the minimum wage to $6.15 per hour (accepted in Florida and Nevada). Details of the key ballot measures considered are provided below:

Alaska Measure 2: Legalising Marijuana Would legalise the cultivation, use and sale of marijuana for persons 21 and older; the state and local government would regulate marijuana like alcohol and tobacco; doctors would be able to prescribe drugs to all patients, including children; public use laws could be enacted by the government as well as laws in the interest of public safety. (REJECTED)

Arizona Proposition 200: Proof of Citizenship: Amend the state constitution to require persons in Arizona to provide proof of U.S. citizenship when registering to vote; any state or local agency that provides benefits not federally mandated would require proof of citizenship. (ACCEPTED)

Arkansas Amendment 3: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the state constitution to define marriage as the union of one man and one woman; Arkansas would not recognise same-sex marriages or partnerships from another state; would recognise common-law marriages from other states; the Arkansas Legislature would determine rights of married couples. (ACCEPTED)

California Proposition 66: "Three Strikes" Law Amends California's "Three Strikes" law to require increased sentences only when current conviction is for a specified violent or serious crime; redefines violent or serious felonies; only previous convictions for violent or serious felonies, brought and tried separately, would qualify for second and third "strike" sentence increases; increased penalties for specific sex crimes involving children. (REJECTED)

Proposition 71: Stem Cell Research Funding Establishes a state-sponsored stem cell research group using bonds totalling up to $3 billion; annual limit on the bonds is $350 million with General Fund money

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being using to pay for the bonds; department will fund stem cell research in California; prohibits human cloning by groups that receive funds. (ACCEPTED)

Colorado Amendment 36: Allocating Electoral Votes Amend the state constitution to allow the selection of Electoral College voters based on the popular vote; changes from the winner-takes-all system of nine electoral votes to proportional system; electoral votes would be awarded based on the percentage of the state's popular vote won by each presidential candidate; if approved, amendment would take effect for the 2004 presidential election; uses the power of the Colorado constitution to allow the people to act as the state general assembly to enact this amendment. (REJECTED)

Florida Amendment 1: Parental Notification Amend the Florida Constitution to require notification of the parent or guardian of a minor before an abortion; Florida Legislature would be required to provide exemptions and create a process for having notification waived. (ACCEPTED)

Georgia Amendment 1: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the Georgia constitution to recognise that marriage is only the union of a man and a woman; no same-sex marriages from other states or jurisdictions would be recognised by the state; no divorces could be granted by a Georgia judge in the case of same-sex marriages. (ACCEPTED)

Kentucky Amendment 1: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the Kentucky Constitution “to provide that only a marriage between one man and one woman shall be a marriage in Kentucky, and that a legal status identical to or similar to marriage for unmarried individuals shall not be valid or recognised” (ACCEPTED)

Maine Question 1: Property Tax Cap The top amount for property and personal property taxes would be capped at 1 percent of the full cash value of the property; value would be based on 1996-97 assessment; base value may be adjusted a maximum of 2 percentage points lower or higher per year; no district, county or user fee taxes may be imposed; if approved, measure would be effective from 1 April 2005. (REJECTED)

Michigan Proposal 04-2: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the state constitution to provide that "the union of one man and one woman in marriage shall be the only agreement recognised as a marriage or similar union for any purpose." (ACCEPTED)

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Mississippi Amendment 1: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the state constitution to recognise marriage may be valid only when between a man and a woman; provides that a marriage from another state or foreign jurisdiction between persons of the same gender is void in Mississippi. (ACCEPTED)

Montana Initiative 96: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the state constitution effective immediately to define civil marriage as between a man and a woman; prohibits marriage between persons of the same sex; marriages performed in other states would be recognised in Montana only if between a man and woman. (ACCEPTED)

Initiative 148: Medical Marijuana Registered patients with debilitating medical conditions could produce, possess and use marijuana; a patient or carer would need certification by a physician when applying for medical use; conditions specifically mentioned in the initiative are cancer, glaucoma and HIV/AIDS; patients with other conditions that produce chronic pain, seizures, severe muscle spasms would be considered; initiative allows registered users to possess a "limited amount" of marijuana. (ACCEPTED)

North Dakota Measure 1: Same-Sex Marriage State constitution would be amended to define marriage as being a legal union of a man and a woman; provides that no other domestic union can have the same legal effect. (ACCEPTED)

Ohio Amendment 1: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the Ohio Constitution to recognise marriage as a union between one man and one woman; neither the state nor counties can give legal status to unmarried individuals whose relationships are intended to approximate the design or effect of marriage. (ACCEPTED)

Oklahoma Question 711: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the state constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman; only married people are eligible for the benefits for married people; same-sex marriages from other states are not valid in Oklahoma; it would be a misdemeanor to issue a marriage license in Oklahoma; by adding Section 35 to Article 2. (ACCEPTED)

Oregon Measure 33: Medical Marijuana Amends and expands Oregon's medical marijuana laws; registered persons may possess up to 10 marijuana plants and one pound of usable marijuana (unless the person registers that s/he is growing one crop per year, in which case possession of up to six pounds per patient is allowed); marijuana dispensaries will be

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regulated and authorised by the state and must be non-profit-making; allows naturopaths and nurse practitioners to sign a medical marijuana card application. (REJECTED)

Measure 36: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the Oregon Constitution to say that the state's public policy is that only a marriage between one man and one woman shall be legal. (Oregon statutes refer to out-of-state marriages as legal except where the marriage violates Oregon public policy). (ACCEPTED)

Utah Amendment 3: Same-Sex Marriage Amend the Utah Constitution to recognise that marriage consists only of the legal union between a man and a woman; no other domestic union would be recognised as a marriage or given the same or substantially equal legal effect; amendment would take effect on 1 January 2005. (ACCEPTED)24

Ballot measures, 2004

State Measure Yes No Total Votes % Votes % Votes % Alaska Legalising marijuana 105,590 43.3% 138,072 56.7% 243,662 100.0% Arkansas Same-sex marriage 746,382 75.0% 248,827 25.0% 995,209 100.0% Arizona Proof of citizenship 863,920 56.0% 678,253 44.0% 1,542,173 100.0% California "Three strikes" Law 4,440,682 46.6% 5,080,942 53.4% 9,521,624 100.0% California Stem cell research funding 5,640,623 59.0% 3,913,332 41.0% 9,553,955 100.0% Colorado Allocating electoral votes 671,647 34.6% 1,270,635 65.4% 1,942,282 100.0% Florida Parental notification 4,575,150 64.6% 2,502,418 35.4% 7,077,568 100.0% Florida Medical malpractice 4,520,970 63.6% 2,588,524 36.4% 7,109,494 100.0% Florida Minimum wage 5,057,990 71.7% 1,996,096 28.3% 7,054,086 100.0% Georgia Same-sex marriage 2,317,981 76.1% 729,705 23.9% 3,047,686 100.0% Kentucky Same-sex marriage 1,222,240 74.6% 417,087 25.4% 1,639,327 100.0% Maine Property tax cap 269,658 37.3% 453,221 62.7% 722,879 100.0% Michigan Same-sex marriage 2,686,139 58.5% 1,902,142 41.5% 4,588,281 100.0% Mississippi Same-sex marriage 924,653 86.1% 149,854 13.9% 1,074,507 100.0% Montana Same-sex marriage 294,056 66.5% 147,927 33.5% 441,983 100.0% Montana Medical marijuana 275,373 61.8% 170,129 38.2% 445,502 100.0% North Dakota Same-sex marriage 222,899 73.3% 81,396 26.7% 304,295 100.0% Nevada Medical malpractice 465,321 59.4% 318,189 40.6% 783,510 100.0% Nevada Minimum wage 542,253 68.4% 250,632 31.6% 792,885 100.0% Ohio Same-sex marriage 3,249,157 61.8% 2,011,168 38.2% 5,260,325 100.0% Oklahoma Same-sex marriage 1,075,079 75.6% 347,246 24.4% 1,422,325 100.0% Oregon Medical marijuana 718,136 42.4% 975,122 57.6% 1,693,258 100.0% Oregon Medical malpractice 827,915 49.4% 847,805 50.6% 1,675,720 100.0% Oregon Same-sex marriage 979,049 56.9% 742,442 43.1% 1,721,491 100.0% Utah Same-sex marriage 562,619 66.2% 286,697 33.8% 849,316 100.0% Wyoming Medical malpractice 115,628 49.7% 117,204 50.3% 232,832 100.0%

Source: Associated Press; CNN

24 Source: Associated Press; CNN

38 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

E. State tables

39 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Alabama Alaska

Population 4,447,100 Population 626,932 Unemployment rate 5.7% Unemployment rate 7.6% Minority ethnic population 27.7% Minority ethnic population 7.6%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 9 Electoral College votes 3 John John Kerry votes % Kerry votes % George Bush 1,174,278 62.5% George Bush 151,876 61.8% John Kerry 691,830 36.8% John Kerry 86,064 35.0% Ralph Nader 6,777 0.4%George Ralph Nader 3,890 1.6% George Bush Others 5,537 0.3% Others 3,769 1.5% Bush Total 1,878,422 100.0% Total 245,599 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 2 2 2 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:6 House election: 1 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 4 Republican 5 5 5 Republican 1 1 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 7 7 72 Total 1 1 1

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

40 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Arizona Arkansas

Population 5,130,632 Population 2,673,400 Unemployment rate 4.8% Unemployment rate 5.5% Minority ethnic population 28.4% Minority ethnic population 18.9%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 10 Electoral College votes 6

votes % John votes % John George Bush 908,211 54.9%Kerry George Bush 566,678 54.3% Kerry George George John Kerry 735,327 44.5%Bush John Kerry 464,157 44.5% Bush Ralph Nader … … Ralph Nader 6,031 0.6% Others 9,892 0.6% Others 5,922 0.6% Total 1,653,430 100.0% Total 1,042,788 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 1 0 0 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 1 2 2 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:8 House election: 4 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 6 2000 2002 2004 Republican 5 6 6 Republican 1 1 1 Democrat 1 2 24 Democrat 3 3 3 2 Total 6 8 8 Total 4 4 4 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

41 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

California Colorado

Population 33,841,378 Population 4,301,261 Unemployment rate 5.9% Unemployment rate 4.9% Minority ethnic population 39.1% Minority ethnic population 20.8%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 55 Electoral College votes 9

George votes % votes % John Bush George Bush 4,403,495 44.3% George Bush 1,068,233 52.0% Kerry George John Bush John Kerry 5,427,055 54.6%Kerry John Kerry 960,666 46.8% Ralph Nader … … Ralph Nader 12,179 0.6% Others 114,075 1.1% Others 13,420 0.7% Total 9,944,625 100.0% Total 2,054,498 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 01 Republican 2 2 1 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 0 0 1 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:40 House election: 6 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 30 2000 2002 2004 4 Republican 20 20 20 Republican 4 5 4 Democrat 32 33 3320 Democrat 2 2 3 2 Total 52 53 5310 Total 6 7 7

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

42 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Connecticut Delaware

Population 3,405,565 Population 783,600 Unemployment rate 4.7% Unemployment rate 3.9% Minority ethnic population 18.5% Minority ethnic population 24.0%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 7 Electoral College votes 3

votes % George votes % George George Bush 686,923 44.0%Bush George Bush 171,531 45.8% Bush John John John Kerry 847,666 54.3%Kerry John Kerry 199,887 53.3% Kerry Ralph Nader 12,708 0.8% Ralph Nader 2,151 0.6% Others 14,206 0.9% Others 1,227 0.3% Total 1,561,503 100.0% Total 374,796 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 01 Republican 0 0 0 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:4 House election: 1 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 Republican 3 3 3 Republican 1 1 1 Democrat 3 2 22 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 6 5 5 Total 1 1 1

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

43 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

District of Columbia Florida

Population 572,049 Population 15,982,378 Unemployment rate 7.9% Unemployment rate 4.5% Minority ethnic population 67.9% Minority ethnic population 31.4%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 3 George Electoral College votes 27 Bush

votes % votes % John George Bush 19,007 9.3% George Bush 3,955,656 52.1% Kerry George John Kerry 183,876 89.5% John Kerry 3,574,509 47.1% Bush Ralph Nader 1,318 0.6% Ralph Nader 32,890 0.4% Others 1,199 0.6%John Others 28,728 0.4% Kerry Total 205,400 100.0% Total 7,591,783 100.0%

Senate election: 2 Seats 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 1 1 Democrat 2 2 1 Total 2 2 2

0 2000 2002 2004 Washington, District of Columbia is not a US state. It is an administrative district under federal jurisdiction. Residents of Washington DC have a vote for the President but do not have a vote for members of the US Senate or House of Representatives. Instead, they are represented in the House House election: by a non-voting Delegate. Residents of DC do not have representation in the US Senate. 20 Seats 2000 2002 2004 15 Republican 15 18 18 Democrat 8 7 7 10

Total 23 25 25 5

0 2000 2002 2004

44 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Georgia Hawaii

Population 8,186,453 Population 1,211,537 Unemployment rate 4.1% Unemployment rate 3.1% Minority ethnic population 34.0% Minority ethnic population 9.0%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 15 Electoral College votes 4

John votes % Kerry votes % George Bush George Bush 1,889,832 58.1% George Bush 194,109 45.3% John John Kerry 1,345,198 41.4%George John Kerry 231,318 54.0% Kerry Ralph Nader … …Bush Ralph Nader … … Others 18,165 0.6% Others 3,104 0.7% Total 3,253,195 100.0% Total 428,531 100.0% Note: 99% of precincts counted

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 1 21 Republican 0 0 2 1 Democrat 2 1 0 Democrat 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 4

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:10 House election: 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 Republican 8 8 7 Republican 0 0 0 Democrat 3 5 65 Democrat 2 2 2 1 Total 11 13 13 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

45 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Idaho Illinois

Population 1,293,953 Population 12,419,293 Unemployment rate 5.0% Unemployment rate 6.0% Minority ethnic population 8.3% Minority ethnic population 27.4%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 4 John Electoral College votes 21 Kerry votes % votes % George George Bush 408,254 68.5% George Bush 2,330,406 44.8% Bush John John Kerry 180,920 30.4% John Kerry 2,840,113 54.6% Kerry Ralph Nader … … Ralph Nader … … George Others 6,911 1.2%Bush Others 32,037 0.6% Total 596,085 100.0% Total 5,202,556 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 1 1 0 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 1 1 2 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:2 House election: 12 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 8 Republican 2 2 2 Republican 10 10 9 Democrat 0 0 01 Democrat 10 9 10 Total 2 2 2 Total 20 19 19 4

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

46 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Indiana Iowa

Population 6,080,485 Population 2,926,324 Unemployment rate 5.2% Unemployment rate 4.7% Minority ethnic population 11.9% Minority ethnic population 4.9%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 11 Electoral College votes 7 John votes % Kerry votes % George Bush 1,474,475 60.1% George Bush 746,600 50.1% John George Kerry Bush John Kerry 960,899 39.2%George John Kerry 733,102 49.2% Ralph Nader … …Bush Ralph Nader 5,842 0.4% Others 18,617 0.8% Others 5,896 0.4% Total 2,453,991 100.0% Total 1,491,440 100.0% Note: 99% of precincts counted

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 1 1 11 Republican 1 1 1 1 Democrat 1 1 1 Democrat 1 1 1 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:8 House election: 6 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 6 2000 2002 2004 4 Republican 6 6 7 Republican 4 4 4 Democrat 4 3 24 Democrat 1 1 1 2 Total 10 9 92 Total 5 5 5

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

47 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Kansas Kentucky

Population 2,688,418 Population 4,041,769 Unemployment rate 4.7% Unemployment rate 4.6% Minority ethnic population 12.7% Minority ethnic population 8.8%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 6 Electoral College votes 8 John John Kerry votes % votes % Kerry George Bush 717,507 62.2% George Bush 1,069,403 59.5% John Kerry 420,846 36.5% John Kerry 712,761 39.7% George George Ralph Nader 9,046 0.8% Ralph Nader 8,859 0.5% Bush Bush Others 6,680 0.6% Others 4,842 0.3% Total 1,154,079 100.0% Total 1,795,865 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 2 2 2 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:4 House election: 6 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 4 Republican 3 3 3 Republican 5 5 5 Democrat 1 1 12 Democrat 1 1 1 Total 4 4 4 Total 6 6 6 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

48 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Louisiana Maine

Population 4,468,976 Population 1,274,923 Unemployment rate 5.3% Unemployment rate 4.7% Minority ethnic population 34.9% Minority ethnic population 1.2%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 9 Electoral College votes 4

John votes % votes % George Kerry Bush George Bush 1,101,296 56.8% George Bush 330,339 44.6% John George John Kerry 818,207 42.2% John Kerry 395,416 53.4% Kerry Bush Ralph Nader 7,014 0.4% Ralph Nader 7,996 1.1% Others 13,668 0.7% Others 6,254 0.8% Total 1,940,185 100.0% Total 740,005 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 11 Republican 2 2 2 1 Democrat 2 2 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:6 House election: 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 4 Republican 5 4 6 Republican 0 0 0 Democrat 2 3 1 Democrat 2 2 2 1 Total 7 7 72 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

49 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Maryland Massachusetts

Population 5,296,486 Population 6,349,097 Unemployment rate 4.1% Unemployment rate 4.6% Minority ethnic population 32.2% Minority ethnic population 12.2%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 10 Electoral College votes 12 George votes % George votes % Bush George Bush 951,892 43.3%Bush George Bush 1,067,163 37.0% John Kerry 1,223,813 55.7%John John Kerry 1,793,916 62.1% Kerry John Ralph Nader 10,772 0.5% Ralph Nader … … Kerry Others 12,082 0.5% Others 27,004 0.9% Total 2,198,559 100.0% Total 2,888,083 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 01 Republican 0 0 0 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:8 House election: 10 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 6 2000 2002 2004 Republican 4 6 6 Republican 0 0 0 Democrat 4 2 24 Democrat 10 10 10 5

Total 8 8 82 Total 10 10 10

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

50 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Michigan Minnesota

Population 9,938,444 Population 4,919,479 Unemployment rate 6.8% Unemployment rate 4.6% Minority ethnic population 17.5% Minority ethnic population 6.4%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 17 Electoral College votes 10

votes % votes % George George John John George Bush 2,306,331 47.8%Bush George Bush 1,345,168 47.6% Bush John Kerry 2,472,007 51.2%Kerry John Kerry 1,443,564 51.1% Kerry Ralph Nader 23,914 0.5% Ralph Nader 18,537 0.7% Others 22,249 0.5% Others 15,886 0.6% Total 4,824,501 100.0% Total 2,823,155 100.0% Note: 99% of precincts counted

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 01 Republican 0 1 1 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 2 1 1 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:10 House election: 6 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 4 Republican 7 9 9 Republican 3 4 4 Democrat 9 6 65 Democrat 5 4 4 Total 16 15 15 Total 8 8 8 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

51 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Mississippi Missouri

Population 2,844,658 Population 5,595,211 Unemployment rate 6.0% Unemployment rate 5.6% Minority ethnic population 37.7% Minority ethnic population 13.3%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 6 Electoral College votes 11 John votes % Kerry votes % John George Bush 671,021 59.6% George Bush 1,452,715 53.4% Kerry George John Kerry 445,596 39.6%George John Kerry 1,253,879 46.1% Bush Ralph Nader 3,064 0.3%Bush Ralph Nader … … Others 5,558 0.5% Others 15,136 0.6% Total 1,125,239 100.0% Total 2,721,730 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 1 2 2 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 1 0 0 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:4 House election: 6 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 4 Republican 2 2 2 Republican 5 5 5 Democrat 3 2 22 Democrat 4 4 4 Total 5 4 4 Total 9 9 9 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

52 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Montana Nebraska

Population 902,195 Population 1,711,263 Unemployment rate 5.1% Unemployment rate 3.7% Minority ethnic population 2.3% Minority ethnic population 9.5%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 3 Electoral College votes 5 John John Kerry votes % Kerry votes % George Bush 265,473 59.1% George Bush 485,766 66.6% John Kerry 173,363 38.6%George John Kerry 234,236 32.1% Ralph Nader 6,143 1.4%Bush Ralph Nader 5,292 0.7% George Others 4,487 1.0% Others 4,098 0.6% Bush Total 449,466 100.0% Total 729,392 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 1 1 11 Republican 1 1 1 1 Democrat 1 1 1 Democrat 1 1 1 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:1 House election: 3 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 2 Republican 1 1 1 Republican 3 3 3 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 1 1 1 Total 3 3 3 1

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

53 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Nevada New Hampshire

Population 1,998,257 Population 1,235,786 Unemployment rate 3.9% Unemployment rate 3.5% Minority ethnic population 26.5% Minority ethnic population 2.4%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 5 Electoral College votes 4

votes % votes % John George Bush 414,939 50.5%George George Bush 330,848 49.0% John George Kerry Kerry Bush John Kerry 393,372 47.9%Bush John Kerry 340,019 50.3% Ralph Nader 4,785 0.6% Ralph Nader 4,447 0.7% Others 8,770 1.1% Others … … Total 821,866 100.0% Total 675,314 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 1 1 11 Republican 2 2 2 1 Democrat 1 1 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:3 House election: 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 2 Republican 1 2 2 Republican 2 2 2 Democrat 1 1 1 Democrat 0 0 0 1 Total 2 3 31 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

54 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

New Jersey New Mexico

Population 8,414,350 Population 1,819,046 Unemployment rate 4.8% Unemployment rate 5.3% Minority ethnic population 26.9% Minority ethnic population 44.0%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 15 Electoral College votes 5

votes % George votes % John George George Bush 1,587,494 46.5%John Bush George Bush 372,513 50.0% Kerry Bush John Kerry 1,799,320 52.7%Kerry John Kerry 364,240 48.9% Ralph Nader 18,614 0.5% Ralph Nader 4,006 0.5% Others 11,058 0.3% Others 4,412 0.6% Total 3,416,486 100.0% Total 745,171 100.0% Note: 99% of precincts counted Note: 99% of precincts counted

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 01 Republican 1 1 1 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 1 1 1 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:8 House election: 3 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 6 2000 2002 2004 2 Republican 6 6 6 Republican 2 1 2 Democrat 7 7 74 Democrat 1 2 1 1 Total 13 13 132 Total 3 3 3

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

55 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

New York North Carolina

Population 18,976,457 Population 8,049,313 Unemployment rate 5.5% Unemployment rate 4.8% Minority ethnic population 31.0% Minority ethnic population 26.3%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 31 Electoral College votes 15

George John votes % Bush votes % George Bush 2,794,471 40.5% George Bush 1,910,936 56.1% Kerry George John Kerry 3,987,211 57.8%John John Kerry 1,484,158 43.6% Bush Ralph Nader 104,220 1.5%Kerry Ralph Nader … … Others 16,833 0.2% Others 12,375 0.4% Total 6,902,735 100.0% Total 3,407,469 100.0% Note: 99% of precincts counted

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 01 Republican 1 1 2 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 1 1 0 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:25 House election: 8 Seats Seats 20 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 6 Republican 12 10 1015 Republican 7 7 7 4 Democrat 19 19 1910 Democrat 5 6 6 Total 31 29 29 Total 12 13 13 2 5

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

56 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

North Dakota Ohio

Population 642,000 Population 11,353,140 Unemployment rate 3.6% Unemployment rate 6.0% Minority ethnic population 1.8% Minority ethnic population 13.4%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 3 Electoral College votes 20 John Kerry votes % votes % John George Bush 195,998 62.9% George Bush 2,796,147 51.0% George Kerry John Kerry 110,662 35.5% John Kerry 2,659,664 48.5% Bush Ralph Nader 3,741 1.2%George Ralph Nader … … Bush Others 1,367 0.4% Others 25,945 0.5% Total 311,768 100.0% Total 5,481,756 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 2 2 2 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:1 House election: 15 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 10 Republican 0 1 0 Republican 11 12 12 Democrat 1 0 1 Democrat 8 6 6 Total 1 1 1 Total 19 18 18 5

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

57 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Oklahoma Oregon

Population 3,450,654 Population 3,421,399 Unemployment rate 4.4% Unemployment rate 7.3% Minority ethnic population 12.8% Minority ethnic population 9.6%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 7 Electoral College votes 7 John George Kerry Bush votes % votes % George Bush 959,655 65.6% George Bush 523,210 30.2% John Kerry 504,077 34.4% John Kerry 890,698 51.5% Ralph Nader … …George Ralph Nader … … John Others … …Bush Others 316,721 18.3% Kerry Total 1,463,732 100.0% Total 1,730,629 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 1 1 1 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 1 1 1 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:6 House election: 6 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 4 4 Republican 5 4 4 Republican 1 1 1 Democrat 1 1 1 Democrat 4 4 4 Total 6 5 52 Total 5 5 5 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

58 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Pennsylvania Rhode Island

Population 12,281,054 Population 1,048,319 Unemployment rate 5.3% Unemployment rate 5.0% Minority ethnic population 13.2% Minority ethnic population 13.2%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 21 Electoral College votes 4 George votes % votes % Bush George John George Bush 2,756,361 48.6%Bush George Bush 161,654 38.9% Kerry John Kerry 2,883,833 50.8% John Kerry 247,407 59.5% John Ralph Nader … … Ralph Nader 3,990 1.0% Kerry Others 33,528 0.6% Others 2,509 0.6% Total 5,673,722 100.0% Total 415,560 100.0% Note: 99% of precincts counted

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 01 Republican 1 1 1 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 1 1 1 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:15 House election: 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 10 Republican 11 12 12 Republican 0 0 0 Democrat 10 7 7 Democrat 2 2 2 1 Total 21 19 195 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

59 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

South Carolina South Dakota

Population 4,012,012 Population 754,844 Unemployment rate 6.9% Unemployment rate 3.4% Minority ethnic population 31.9% Minority ethnic population 2.0%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 8 Electoral College votes 3 John John votes % Kerry votes % Kerry George Bush 924,170 58.0% George Bush 232,545 59.9% John Kerry 650,350 40.8%George John Kerry 149,225 38.4% George Bush Ralph Nader 5,431 0.3% Ralph Nader 4,317 1.1% Bush Others 12,448 0.8% Others 2,070 0.5% Total 1,592,399 100.0% Total 388,157 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 1 1 21 Republican 0 0 1 1 Democrat 1 1 0 Democrat 2 2 1 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:6 House election: 1 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 4 Republican 4 4 4 Republican 1 1 0 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 0 0 1 Total 6 6 62 Total 1 1 1

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

60 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Tennessee Texas

Population 5,689,283 Population 20,851,820 Unemployment rate 5.1% Unemployment rate 5.5% Minority ethnic population 18.6% Minority ethnic population 43.5%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 11 Electoral College votes 34 John votes % John votes % Kerry Kerry George Bush 1,381,937 56.8% George Bush 4,519,023 61.2% John Kerry 1,033,176 42.5%George John Kerry 2,827,756 38.3% Bush George Ralph Nader 8,832 0.4% Ralph Nader … … Bush Others 7,346 0.3% Others 38,723 0.5% Total 2,431,291 100.0% Total 7,385,502 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 2 2 2 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:6 House election: 25 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 20 4 Republican 5 4 4 Republican 13 14 21 15 Democrat 4 5 5 Democrat 17 18 11 10 Total 9 9 92 Total 30 32 32 5

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

61 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Utah Vermont

Population 2,233,169 Population 608,827 Unemployment rate 4.8% Unemployment rate 3.3% Minority ethnic population 9.8% Minority ethnic population 1.4%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

John Electoral College votes 5 Kerry Electoral College votes 3 George votes % votes % Bush George Bush 612,623 71.1% George Bush 120,710 38.9% John Kerry 227,286 26.4% John Kerry 183,621 59.1% John Ralph Nader 10,840 1.3% Ralph Nader 4,426 1.4% Kerry Others 10,983 1.3%George Others 1,742 0.6% Total 861,732 100.0%Bush Total 310,499 100.0% Note: 99% of precincts counted

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 1 0 0 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 1 1 1 Total 2 2 2 Other 0 1 1 Total 2 2 2 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:3 House election: 1 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 2 Republican 2 2 2 Republican 0 0 0 Democrat 1 1 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 3 3 31 Other 1 1 1 Total 1 1 1 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

62 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81

Virginia Washington state

Population 7,078,515 Population 5,894,121 Unemployment rate 3.2% Unemployment rate 5.6% Minority ethnic population 24.3% Minority ethnic population 10.7%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 13 Electoral College votes 11

votes % John votes % George Kerry George Bush 1,667,198 54.0%George George Bush 1,130,537 45.7% John Bush John Kerry 1,400,254 45.3%Bush John Kerry 1,305,868 52.8% Kerry Ralph Nader … … Ralph Nader 19,188 0.8% Others 20,545 0.7% Others 17,136 0.7% Total 3,087,997 100.0% Total 2,472,729 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 21 Republican 0 0 0 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Democrat 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:3 House election: 8 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 6 2 Republican 6 8 8 Republican 3 3 3 Democrat 4 3 3 Democrat 6 6 6 4 1 Other 1 0 0 Total 9 9 9 2 Total 11 11 11 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

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West Virginia Wisconsin

Population 1,808,344 Population 5,363,675 Unemployment rate 5.0% Unemployment rate 5.0% Minority ethnic population 3.9% Minority ethnic population 9.3%

2004 Presidential election: 2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 5 Electoral College votes 10

votes % John votes % Kerry George George Bush 418,151 56.1% George Bush 1,477,122 49.4% John George Bush John Kerry 321,641 43.2% John Kerry 1,488,935 49.8% Kerry Bush Ralph Nader 3,951 0.5% Ralph Nader 16,324 0.5% Others 1,351 0.2% Others 10,009 0.3% Total 745,094 100.0% Total 2,992,390 100.0%

Senate election: Senate election: 2 2 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

Republican 0 0 01 Republican 0 0 0 1 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2 Total 2 2 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

House election:3 House election: 6 Seats Seats 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 2 4 Republican 1 1 1 Republican 4 4 4 Democrat 2 2 2 Democrat 5 4 4 Total 3 3 31 Total 9 8 8 2

0 0 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004

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Wyoming

Population 493,782 Unemployment rate 3.9% Minority ethnic population 7.2%

2004 Presidential election:

Electoral College votes 3 John Kerry votes % George Bush 167,129 69.0% John Kerry 70,620 29.1% Ralph Nader 2,734 1.1% Others 1,826 0.8% George Bush Total 242,309 100.0%

Senate election: 2 Seats 2000 2002 2004

Republican 2 2 2 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 2 2 2

0 2000 2002 2004

House election: 1 Seats 2000 2002 2004 Republican 1 1 1 Democrat 0 0 0 Total 1 1 1

0 2000 2002 2004

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III Further information: website links

A. Elections - General

Congress.Org (Capitol Advantage). Presidential, Congressional, State and local elections. Searches by Senator or Representative, and links to Congressional races by state. http://www.congress.org/congressorg/e4/

Green Papers: General Election USA 2004: Facts, figures and commentary on the U.S. election campaigns. http://www.thegreenpapers.com

PollingReport.com Opinion poll data on Presidential and Congressional election voting intention http://www.pollingreport.com/

Politics1 Links to all aspects of elections http://www.politics1.com/

Project Vote-Smart Information on candidates and issues http://www.vote-smart.org

B. Media sites

CNN: America votes http://www.cnn.com/election/2004/

C-SPAN: Election 2004 http://www3.capwiz.com/c-span/e4/

New York Times: Campaign 2004 http://www.nytimes.com/pages/politics/campaign/

Washington Post Elections 2004 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/elections/2004/

C. Official US sites

InfoUSA (Department of State) Articles, reports, FAQs, links on aspects of US elections http://usinfo.state.gov/usa/infousa/politics/elecover.htm

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US Embassy London Ready reference: US elections 2004 http://www.usembassy.org.uk/elec04/index.html

Federal Election Commission US government agency with responsibility for monitoring campaign finance. http://www.fec.gov

Republican National Committee http://www.rcn.org

Democratic National Committee http://www.democrats.org

D. Presidential election

Commission on Presidential Debates Sponsor of all general election debates since 1988. Includes history, procedures and transcripts of the debates. http://www.debates.org/

Bush/Cheney ’04 http://www.georgewbush.org/

Kerry/Edwards Campaign http://www.johnkerry.com/index.html

Nader/Camejo 2004 Independent Presidential candidate Ralph Nader and his running mate, Peter Miguel Camejo http://www.votenader.org/

Council on Foreign Relations, New York: Campaign 2004 Foreign policy in the Presidential Election (Speeches, party platforms, issue briefs on foreign policy issues, etc) http://www.cfr.org/campaign2004/index.php

E. Congressional elections

Office of the Clerk, House of Representatives http://clerk.house.gov

A comprehensive list of election website links is available via the Department of State’s InfoUSA website on elections at: http://usinfo.state.gov/usa/infousa/politics/election.htm

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V Appendix 1 – Presidents since 1789

Presidents and Vice Presidents of the United States since 1789

Year President (and party) Vice President Main Opponent Electoral Votes Popular Vote Winner Opponent Winner Opponent 1789 (F) John Adams 69 34 No record 1792 George Washington (F) John Adams John Adams 132 77 No record 1796 John Adams (F) Thomas Jefferson 71 68 No record 1800 Thomas Jefferson (D-R) Aaron Burr 73 73 No record 1804 Thomas Jefferson (D-R) Charles C Pinckney 162 14 No record 1808 (D-R) George Clinton Charles C Pinckney 122 47 No record 1812 James Madison (D-R) De Witt Clinton 128 89 No record 1816 (D-R) Daniel D Tompkins Rufus King 183 34 No record 1820 James Monroe (D-R) Daniel D Tompkins 231 1 No record 1824 John Quincy Adams (N-R) John C Calhoun 84 99 108,740 153,544 1828 Andrew Jackson (D-R) John C Calhoun John Quincy Adams 178 83 647,286 508,064 1832 Andrew Jackson (D-R) 219 49 701,780 484,205 1836 Martin Van Buren (D) Richard M Johnson 170 73 764,176 550,816 1840 William Henry Harrison (W) Martin Van Buren 234 60 1,275,016 1,129,102 1841 John Tyler (W) President after the death of William H. Harrison 1844 James K Polk (D) George M Dallas Henry Clay 170 105 1,337,243 1,290,062 1848 Zachary Taylor (W) Millard Fillmore 163 127 1,360,099 1,229,544 1852 Franklin Pierce (D) William R King 254 42 1,601,274 1,386,580 1856 (D) John C Breckinridge John C Fremont 174 114 1,838,169 1,341,264 1860 Abraham Lincoln (R) John C Breckinridge 180 72 1,866,452 847,953 1864 Abraham Lincoln (R) Andrew Johnson George B McClellan 212 21 2,213,665 1,805,237 1865 Andrew Johnson (R) President after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln 1868 Ulysses S Grant (R) Schuyler Colfax 214 80 3,012,833 2,703,249 1872 Ulysses S Grant (R) Henry Wilson 286 # 3,597,132 2,834,125 1876 Rutherford B Hayes (R) William A Wheeler Samuel J Tilden 185 184 4,036,298 4,300,590 1880 James Garfield (R) Chester A Arthur Winfield S Hancock 214 155 4,454,416 4,444,952 1881 Chester A Arthur (R) President after the assassination of James Garfield 1884 (D) Thomas A Hendricks James G Blaine 219 182 4,874,986 4,851,981 1888 (R) Levi P Morton Grover Cleveland 233 168 5,439,853 5,540,309 1892 Grover Cleveland (D) Adlai E Stevenson Benjamin Harrison 277 145 5,556,918 5,176,108 1896 William McKinley (R) Garret A Hobart William J Bryan 271 176 7,104,779 6,502,925 1900 William McKinley (R) Theodore Roosevelt William J Bryan 292 155 7,207,923 6,358,133 1904 Theodore Roosevelt (R) Charles W Fairbanks Alton N Parker 336 140 7,623,486 5,077,911 1908 William H Taft (R) James S Sherman William J Bryan 321 162 7,678,908 6,409,104 1912 Woodrow Wilson (D) Thomas R Marshall Theodore Roosevelt 435 88 6,293,454 4,119,207 1916 Woodrow Wilson (D) Thomas R Marshall Charles E Hughes 277 254 9,129,606 8,538,221 1920 Warren G Harding (R) Calvin Coolidge James M Cox 404 127 16,152,200 9,147,353 1924 Calvin Coolidge (R) Charles G Dawes John W Davis 382 136 15,725,016 8,386,503 1928 Herbert C Hoover (R) Alfred E Smith 444 87 21,391,381 15,016,443 1932 Franklin D Roosevelt (D) John N Garner Herbert C Hoover 472 59 22,821,857 15,761,841 1936 Franklin D Roosevelt (D) John N Garner Alfred M Landon 523 8 27,751,597 16,679,583 1940 Franklin D Roosevelt (D) Henry A Wallace Wendell L Wilkie 449 82 27,244,160 22,305,198 1944 Franklin D Roosevelt (D) Harry S Truman Thomas E Dewey 432 99 25,602,504 22,006,285 1948 Harry S Truman (D) Alben W Barkley Thomas E Dewey 303 189 24,105,695 21,969,170 1952 Dwight D Eisenhower (R) Richard M Nixon Adlai Stevenson 442 89 33,778,963 27,314,992 1956 Dwight D Eisenhower (R) Richard M Nixon AdlaiStevenson 457 73 35,581,003 25,738,765 1960 John F Kennedy (D) Lyndon B Johnson Richard M Nixon 303 219 34,227,096 34,107,646 1964 Lyndon B Johnson (D) Hubert H Humphrey Barry M Goldwater 486 52 42,825,463 27,146,969 1968 Richard M Nixon (R) Spiro T Agnew Hubert H Humphrey 301 191 31,785,148 31,274,503 1972 Richard M Nixon (R) Spiro T Agnew George McGovern 520 17 46,740,323 28,901,598 1974 Gerald R Ford (R)* President on the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974 1976 (D) Walter F Mondale Gerald R Ford 297 240 40,825,839 39,147,770 1980 Ronald Reagan(R) George Bush Jimmy Carter 489 49 43,901,812 35,483,820 1984 Ronald Reagan (R) George Bush Walter F Mondale 525 13 54,455,075 37,577,185 1988 George Bush (R) J Danforth Quayle Michael S Dukakis 426 111 47,946,000 41,016,000 1992 William J Clinton (D) Albert Gore, Jr. George Bush 370 168 44,908,254 39,102,343 1996 William J Clinton (D) Albert Gore, Jr. 379 159 45,590,703 37,816,307 2000 George W Bush (R) Dick Cheney Albert Gore, Jr. 271 266 50,456,169 50,996,064 2004 George W Bush (R) Dick Cheney John F Kerry 284 254 59,729,952 56,249,551

(R) Republican; (D) Democrat; (W) Whig; (D-R) Democratic/Jacksonian Republican; (N-R) National Republican; (F) Federalist

2004 data are projected * Nominated Vice-President after the resignation of Spiro Agnew in 1973. # Greeley died before Electoral College voted

Source: US National Archives; Congressional Quarterly; Routledge Atlas of Presidential Elections (2001)

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VI Appendix 2 – Party affiliations in Congress since 1899

Party affiliations in Congress since 1899 All data as at start of the first session of each Congress, except as indicated. Excludes vacancies at start of session

Year Congress House of Representatives Senate President Number Control Majority Republican Democrat Other* Majority Republican Democrat Other* party party 1899-1901 56th Republican Republican 185 163 9 Republican 53 26 8 McKinley (Rep) 1901-03 57th Republican Republican 197 151 9 Republican 55 31 4 T. Roosevelt (Rep) 1903-05 58th Republican Republican 208 178 0 Republican 57 33 0 T. Roosevelt (Rep) 1905-07 59th Republican Republican 250 136 0 Republican 57 33 0 T. Roosevelt (Rep)

1907-09 60th Republican Republican 222 164 0 Republican 61 31 0 T. Roosevelt (Rep) 1909-11 61st Republican Republican 219 172 0 Republican 61 32 0 Taft (Rep) 1911-13 62rd Split Democrat 161 228 1 Republican 51 41 0 Taft (Rep) 1913-15 63rd Democrat Democrat 127 291 17 Democrat 44 51 1 Wilson (Dem) 1915-17 64th Democrat Democrat 196 230 9 Democrat 40 56 0 Wilson (Dem) 1917-19 65th Democrat Democrat 210 216 6 Democrat 42 54 0 Wilson (Dem) 1919-21 66th Republican Republican 240 190 3 Republican 49 47 0 Wilson (Dem) 1921-23 67th Republican Republican 301 131 1 Republican 59 37 0 Harding (Rep) 1923-25 68th Republican Republican 225 205 5 Republican 51 43 2 Coolidge (Rep) 1925-27 69th Republican Republican 247 183 4 Republican 56 39 1 Coolidge (Rep)

1927-29 70th Republican Republican 237 195 3 Republican 49 46 1 Coolidge (Rep) 1929-31 71st Republican Republican 267 167 1 Republican 56 39 1 Hoover (Rep) 1931-33 72rd Split Democrat 214 220 1 Republican 48 47 1 Hoover (Rep) 1933-35 73rd Democrat Democrat 117 310 5 Democrat 35 60 1 F. Roosevelt (Dem) 1935-37 74th Democrat Democrat 103 319 10 Democrat 25 69 2 F. Roosevelt (Dem) 1937-39 75th Democrat Democrat 89 331 13 Democrat 16 76 4 F. Roosevelt (Dem) 1939-41 76th Democrat Democrat 164 261 4 Democrat 23 69 4 F. Roosevelt (Dem) 1941-43 77th Democrat Democrat 162 268 5 Democrat 28 66 2 F. Roosevelt (Dem) 1943-45 78th Democrat Democrat 208 218 4 Democrat 37 58 1 F. Roosevelt (Dem) 1945-47 79th Democrat Democrat 190 242 2 Democrat 38 56 1 Truman (Dem)

1947-49 80th Republican Republican 245 188 1 Republican 51 45 0 Truman (Dem) 1949-51 81st Democrat Democrat 171 263 1 Democrat 42 54 0 Truman (Dem) 1951-53 82rd Democrat Democrat 199 234 1 Democrat 47 49 0 Truman (Dem) 1953-55 83rd Republican Republican 221 211 1 Republican 48 47 1 Eisenhower (Rep) 1955-57 84th Democrat Democrat 203 232 0 Democrat 47 48 1 Eisenhower (Rep) 1957-59 85th Democrat Democrat 200 233 0 Democrat 47 49 0 Eisenhower (Rep) 1959-61 86th Democrat Democrat 153 283 0 Democrat 34 64 0 Eisenhower (Rep) 1961-63 87th Democrat Democrat 174 263 0 Democrat 35 65 0 Kennedy (Dem) 1963-65 88th Democrat Democrat 177 258 0 Democrat 33 67 0 Kennedy (Dem) 1965-67 89th Democrat Democrat 140 295 0 Democrat 32 68 0 Johnson (Dem)

1967-69 90th Democrat Democrat 187 247 0 Democrat 36 64 0 Johnson (Dem) 1969-71 91st Democrat Democrat 192 243 0 Democrat 43 57 0 Nixon (Rep) 1971-73 92rd Democrat Democrat 180 254 0 Democrat 44 54 2 Nixon (Rep) 1973-75 (1) (2) 93rd Democrat Democrat 192 239 1 Democrat 42 56 2 Nixon (Rep) 1975-77 (3) 94th Democrat Democrat 144 291 0 Democrat 37 60 2 Ford (Rep) 1977-79 (4) 95th Democrat Democrat 143 292 0 Democrat 38 61 1 Carter (Dem) 1979-81 (4) 96th Democrat Democrat 157 276 0 Democrat 41 58 1 Carter (Dem) 1981-83 (4) 97th Split Democrat 192 243 0 Republican 53 46 1 Reagan (Rep) 1983-85 98th Split Democrat 165 269 0 Republican 54 46 0 Reagan (Rep) 1985-87 99th Split Democrat 182 252 0 Republican 53 47 0 Reagan (Rep)

1987-89 100th Democrat Democrat 177 258 0 Democrat 45 55 0 Reagan (Rep) 1989-91 101st Democrat Democrat 174 259 0 Democrat 45 55 0 Geo. Bush (Rep) 1991-93 (5) 102rd Democrat Democrat 167 267 1 Democrat 44 56 0 Geo. Bush (Rep) 1993-95 (5) 103rd Democrat Democrat 176 258 1 Democrat 43 57 0 Clinton (Dem) 1995-97 (5) 104th Republican Republican 230 204 1 Republican 52 48 0 Clinton (Dem) 1997-99 (5) 105th Republican Republican 226 207 2 Republican 55 45 0 Clinton (Dem) 1999-2001 (5) 106th Republican Republican 222 212 1 Republican 55 45 0 Clinton (Dem) 2001-03 (6) 107th Split Republican 221 211 2 Democrat 50 50 0 Geo. W. Bush (Rep) 2003-05 (7) 108th Republican Republican 229 205 1 Republican 51 48 1 Geo. W. Bush (Rep) (7) ** 2005-07 109th Republican Republican 231 200 1 Republican 55 44 1 Geo. W. Bush (Rep) * excluding vacancies ** 2005-07 3 House seats not yet declared Notes: Others (1) Senate: Independent (1) and Conservative-Republican (1) (2) House: Independent-Democrat (1) (3) Senate: Independent (1), Conservative-Republican (1), and Undecided (1) (New Hampshire) (4) Senate: Independent (1) (5) House: Independent-Socialist (1) (6) House: Independent-Socialist (1) and Independent (1) (7) House: Independent (1). Senate: Independent (1)

Source: , Office of the Clerk of the House

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