RESEARCH PAPER 04/81 2004 US Presidential and 15 NOVEMBER 2004 Congressional election results This Research Paper provides summary results of the elections for the President of the United States and the 109th Congress, held on Tuesday 2 November 2004, as well as the major opinion polls conducted during the campaign. It also briefly considers the results of the Governor elections held in eleven US states and the key ballot measures considered on Election Day. George W Bush, the 43rd President and Republican incumbent, was re-elected with 51% of the popular vote, defeating his Democrat rival, Senator John Kerry (48%). The Republicans retained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives with increased majorities in both chambers. The results in three congressional districts are expected shortly. This Research Paper will be revised when final results are available. The graphics in the Paper are best viewed in colour. Ross Young and Jeremy Hardacre SOCIAL AND GENERAL STATISTICS SECTION Carole Andrews INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AND DEFENCE SECTION HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY Recent Library Research Papers include: 04/65 The Civil Partnership Bill [HL]: the detail and legal implications 08.09.04 [Bill 132 of 2003-04] 04/66 The Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe: Part I 06.09.04 04/67 Economic Indicators, September 2004 06.09.04 04/68 Children Bill [HL] [Bill 144 of 2003–04] 10.09.04 04/69 Unemployment by Constituency, August 2004 15.09.04 04/70 Income, Wealth & Inequality 15.09.04 04/71 The Defence White Paper 17.09.04 04/72 The Defence White Paper: Future Capabilities 17.09.04 04/73 The Mental Capacity Bill [Bill 120 of 2003-04] 05.10.04 04/74 Social Indicators [includes articles: Renewable Energy; Summer 08.10.04 Olympic and Paralympic Games - Facts and Figures 1896 to 2004] 04/75 The Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe: Part III 08.10.04 04/76 Unemployment by constituency, September 2004 13.10.04 04/77 The Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe: Part IV and Protocols 21.10.04 04/78 The School Transport Bill [Bill 162 of 2003-04] 25.10.04 04/79 The Gambling Bill [Bill 163 0f 2003-04] 28.10.04 04/80 Economic Indicators [includes article: The EU/US Airbus/ Boeing 01.11.04 WTO Debate] Research Papers are available as PDF files: • to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: http://www.parliament.uk • within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: http://hcl1.hclibrary.parliament.uk Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Any comments on Research Papers should be sent to the Research Publications Officer, Room 407, 1 Derby Gate, London, SW1A 2DG or e-mailed to [email protected] ISSN 1368-8456 Summary of main points This Research Paper provides summary results of the elections for the President of the United States and the 109th Congress, held on Tuesday 2 November 2004. George W Bush, the 43rd President and Republican incumbent, was re-elected with 51% of the popular vote, defeating his Democrat rival, Senator John Kerry (48%). Bush is expected to receive 284 votes in the Electoral College when the electors meet in their respective states on 13 December 2004. The Electoral College vote will then be confirmed by the US Congress on 6 January 2005. The President will be inaugurated in Washington, D.C. on 20 January 2005. The Republicans retained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives with increased majorities in both chambers. Run-off elections in two congressional districts in Louisiana are due to be held on 4 December. One district in New York has yet to declare, although the Democrats are currently 4,000 votes ahead. Each party lost two Governor elections in the 11 states where these elections were held. The Governor race in Washington State remains too close to call. It could be some weeks before all the votes are re-counted and a winner declared. In 34 states, a number of ballot measures were also considered, including medical malpractice, election reform, same-sex marriages and the legalisation of marijuana for medical purposes. CONTENTS I Background 6 A. The election process 6 1. Presidential election 6 2. Congressional elections 9 B. Opinion Polls 13 1. Pre-election opinion polls 13 2. The battleground states 23 3. Exit polls 26 II Election results and ballot measures 31 A. Presidential election 31 B. Congressional elections 32 C. Governor elections 34 D. Ballot measures 34 E. State tables 39 III Further information: website links 66 IV Maps 68 V Appendix 1 – Presidents since 1789 81 VI Appendix 2 – Party affiliations in Congress since 1899 82 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81 I Background A. The election process 1. Presidential election In the United States, a Presidential election is held every four years. The election takes place on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. In 2004, Election Day was Tuesday 2 November. The President serves a four-year term and can be removed from office only by the process of impeachment. Presidential tenure is limited to no more than two four-year terms, or a maximum of ten years under special circumstances.1 Candidates In 2004, the Republican candidates for President and Vice President were the incumbents, George W Bush and Richard B (Dick) Cheney. The Democrat candidate for President was Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, with Senator John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate. The major parties choose their presidential and vice presidential candidates at national party conventions, which are held in the summer before the election. The conventions also adopt the parties’ election manifestos. The delegates to the party conventions are chosen earlier in election year, at state level, by a variety of methods, including primary elections, caucuses, conventions or a combination of these elements. Those candidates for the Presidency and Vice Presidency who represent the major political parties are automatically granted ballot access in all states, whereas third party and independent candidates must satisfy various state requirements, such as gaining a requisite level of public support, through petition signatures or having polled a required number of votes in the most recent state-wide election. In the 2004 election the following third party and independent candidates were on the ballot in a significant number of states: Michael Badnarik (Libertarian Party), David Cobb (Green Party), Ralph Nader (Independent) and Michael Peroutka (Constitution Party).2 The presidential campaigns of the major parties traditionally begin on Labor Day (the first Monday in September), and therefore last approximately two months. The campaign for minor party or independent candidates may begin as early as the candidates wish. 1 This would apply if a twice-elected President had also served two years (or less) of the term of another elected President. (US Constitution, Amendment XXII, ratified 27 February 1951) 2 For details see the table, Presidency 2004: Ballot Access, http://www.politics1.com/p2004-ballots.htm 6 RESEARCH PAPER 04/81 The Electoral College The President and Vice President are not elected directly by popular vote, but are chosen by a majority vote of presidential electors, known collectively as the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to the total of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. The District of Columbia (Washington DC), which has a Delegate (as opposed to an elected Representative) in the House,3 has the same number of electors (three) as the least populous states. Thus, the Electoral College currently comprises 538 members, based on 435 Representatives, 100 Senators and three electors for the District of Columbia. The political parties (or independent candidates) in each state submit a list of prospective electors, who are pledged to their candidate for President and are equal in number to the state’s electoral vote. The major parties usually select their candidates for electors at state party conventions or through appointment by their state party leaders, while third parties and independent candidates designate theirs. Any citizen, other than a Member of Congress or an employee of the federal government, may be chosen to serve as elector, but in practice they are usually selected in recognition of service to their political party.4 There is no federal law requiring electors to vote as they have pledged, but in 29 states and the District of Columbia electors are bound by state law and/or by state or party pledge to cast their vote for the candidate that wins the state-wide popular vote. A number of electors have violated such laws over the years, but the penalties are not very severe. Many constitutional lawyers agree that electors remain free agents, despite state laws, and that, if challenged, such laws would be ruled unconstitutional.5 In the 2000 election, an elector for the District of Columbia cast a blank ballot for President and Vice President in protest at what she regarded as unfair voting rights in the District. This was regarded as an abstention. The Electoral College never meets as a body. On Election Day voters in each state (and the District of Columbia) cast their votes for the party slate of electors that represents their choice of candidate for President and Vice President. In 48 states and the District of Columbia this is done on a “winner-take-all” basis, with the party slate that wins the most popular votes providing all the electors for that state.