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Young China Research Analysts THEME 28 October 2015 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Thematic Research (Technology - Internet/New Media CN (Asia)) Young China Research Analysts THEME Vincent Chan 852 2101 6568 [email protected] Lonely kids ruling cyberspace Anson Huang 852 2101 6823 [email protected] Figure 1: The fast growing "Young China" 92.6 Baiding Rong 100 852 2101 6703 80 63.7 [email protected] 53.4 60 47.7 Bin Wang 41.2 30.3 852 2101 6702 40 27.9 19.4 16.0 [email protected] 20 David Hao 0 Online Online Video Internet Internet Advertising Sports Industry O2O O2O Food Delivery Groupbuy Online Online Shopping Online Ticketing Robot Robot Ownership Environment Environment 852 2101 7310 Investment [email protected] Dick Wei 852 2101 7339 [email protected] Evan Zhou 852 2101 6745 CAGR% (14-17) [email protected] Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Joy Zhang 852 2101 7083 We studied the characteristics of "post 90s" Chinese and their implication on [email protected] various aspects of the Chinese economy: Kevin Yin 852 2101 7655 ■ The "post 90s" generation. There are three distinguished characteristics of [email protected] this generation: (1) it is the first generation fully affected by the "One Child Kyna Wong Policy"; (2) it is the first generation to benefit from widening education 852 2101 6950 [email protected] opportunities, with over 85% of them attending high school and almost 40% Mark Mao with tertiary education (based on 2014 data); and (3) it is the first generation 852 2101 6710 to grow up with the internet, so they are much more willing to express their [email protected] opinion or share information in cyberspace. Sam Li 852 2101 6775 ■ What does this mean for China? They are quite at home with e-commerce [email protected] (both goods and service) and internet finance due to their familiarity with Sophie Chiu cyberspace, and they tend to demand more customised products (like cars) 852 2101 7657 [email protected] and services (travel). Also, due to the demographic change and education Steven Zhu advancement, automation and robotics will be key trends. Further, with their 852 2101 6535 rising social consciousness, environmental protection will be another key [email protected] development. Trina Chen 852 2101 7031 ■ Beneficiaries of "Young China". We believe the following stocks will be [email protected] key beneficiaries of the "Young China" theme: JD.com, Anta Sports, CITS, Haitian Flavouring, CAR, Alibaba, Vipshop, 58.com, Wanda Cinema, Wisdom, Ctrip, Geely, Harmony Auto, Han's Laser and BE Water. ERRATUM: This report supersedes our report dated 28 October which included Dongjiang as a key beneficiary / top pick (pages 2 and 114). (Dongjiang entered trading suspension on 27 October 2015.) DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 28 October 2015 Focus charts and table Figure 2: Number of new born babies Figure 3: Education level of Chinese youth 35 (Mn new born babies per annum) 100 (% of corresponding age group) 30 26.3 80 24.9 23.8 25 21.9 21.1 21.3 20.3 19.2 19.8 60 20 18.3 16.6 15.9 16.3 15 40 10 20 5 0 0 70 55 60 65 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 50 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 74 59 64 69 79 84 89 94 99 04 09 14 54 Senior High Schooling Higher Education Source: CEIC Source: CEIC Figure 4: Purpose of using social media Figure 5: Ageing China leads to the rise of robots 80 450,000 5.0% Japan old Others 5.8% Japan robot 400,000 70 dependency ratio 1.6% Post 80s Post 90s ownership Interaction with Celebrities 5.5% 350,000 60 17.7% Life Recording 25.1% Korea old 300,000 50 27.1% dependency ratio Getting Information 25.5% 250,000 18.2% 40 Expressing Opinion 29.2% China robot ownership 200,000 24.8% 30 Information Sharing 31.4% China old 150,000 39.5% 20 Korea robot dependency ratio Knowing the Society 38.5% 100,000 ownership 39.0% Time Killing 40.8% 10 50,000 28.9% Circle Expansion 40.9% - - 40.8% 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 Friend Communication 53.6% Japan old age dependency China old age dependency Korea old age dependency 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Japan robot ownership (RHS) China robot ownership (RHS) Korea robot ownership (RHS) Source: "2014 China Post-90s Research Report" published by Source: IFR, World Bank EnfoDesk & Tencent QQ Figure 6: Beneficiaries of "Young China" Name Ticker Rec Price TP % to TP P/E (x) EPS growth (%) ROE (%) (loc) (loc) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 JD.com JD.OQ O 28 40 45 -111 545 -78 -120 -6 Anta Sports 2020.HK O 22 22.5 4 22 20 17 14 24 CITS 601888.SS O 54 68 25 34 30 5 14 15 Haitian Flavouring 603288.SS O 34 41 20 37 30 21 21 31 CAR 0699.HK O 14 22 62 23 14 102 70 19 Alibaba BABA.N O 79 98 23 36 31 18 18 40 Vipshop VIPS.N O 20 25 23 36 24 74 53 61 58.com WUBA.N O 51 66 29 -18 -39 -965 -54 -34 Wanda Cinema 002739.SZ O 97 122 26 88 49 -31 80 34 Wisdom 1661.HK O 4 5.2 31 16 12 21 28 26 Ctrip CTRP.OQ O 89 109 23 111 54 11 104 9 Geely 0175.HK O 4 5.7 39 10 7 104 41 16 Harmony Auto 3836.HK O 5 8.8 67 11 8 -21 38 15 Han's Laser 002008.SZ O 26 33 29 41 29 1 44 11 BE Water 0371.HK O 6 8 26 25 20 24 25 14 Note: Prices as of 27 Oct 2015. O = Outperform Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Young China 2 28 October 2015 Lonely kids ruling cyberspace The "post 90s" generation The "post 90s" generation (people born in the 1990s) is the first generation of Chinese to The "post 90s" generation feel the full impact of the One Child Policy, and they are growing up in a prosperous (people born in the 1990s) is environment. Compared to previous generations, the "post 90s" benefited from widening the generation most education opportunities, with over 85% of them attending high school and almost 40% with receptive to new technology tertiary education (based on 2014 data). Another distinctive feature of this generation is the proliferation of the internet: they are the most receptive generation to new technology. Thus, this generation is clearly much more comfortable with cyberspace—no matter whether they are shopping there, making friends there or speaking their minds there. What does this mean for China? Life and consumption activities and the "post 90s" generation have been linked with the Life and consumption internet. About 60% of the "post 90s" spend more than three hours per day surfing the activities and the "post 90s" internet via smartphones, and can handle most of their daily tasks through about 50 apps generation have been linked on their mobile phones. We think they probably are the first generation of Chinese who with the internet would be willing to spend most of their money on services rather than goods. In this report, we discuss the relationship of internet with various business sectors from our analysts, as well as some emerging consumer trends. Specifically, they are quite at home with e- commerce (both goods and services) and internet finance due to their familiarity with cyberspace, and they tend to demand more customised products (like cars) and services (travel). Also, due to the demographic change and advanced education, automation and robotics will be key trends. Also, given their rising social consciousness, environmental protection will be another key development. Detailed comments on individual sectors will be shown from pages 21 t0 114. Beneficiaries of "Young China" We believe the following stocks will be key beneficiaries of the "Young China" theme: Figure 7: Beneficiaries of "Young China" Name Rec Reason JD.com O JD is China's second-largest B2C company, well positioned to benefit from Chinese young adults' consumption behaviour change and robust sector development. Anta Sports O Anta, the No.1 domestic sportswear brand, rides on the trend of lifestyle change and younger consumer mix. CITS O CITS is the only nationally licensed duty-free store (DFS) operator in China. Haitian Flavouring O Haitian is the largest soy sauce company in China, with a 16% market share. CAR O CAR is the largest rental company in China with over 30% market share, benefiting from robust growth in the China auto rental market. Alibaba O Alibaba offers attractive valuation. It benefits from sustainable e-commerce market growth in China.
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