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Simulation of the Arabian Sea Tsunami Propagation Generated Due to 1945 Makran Earthquake and Its Effect on Western Parts Of See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226272046 Simulation of the Arabian Sea Tsunami propagation generated due to 1945 Makran Earthquake and its effect on western parts of... Article in Natural Hazards · January 2009 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-008-9261-3 CITATIONS READS 39 437 3 authors, including: A. P. Singh B.K. Rastogi Institute of Seismological Research Institute of Seismological Research 55 PUBLICATIONS 311 CITATIONS 156 PUBLICATIONS 1,756 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: site response study View project All content following this page was uploaded by A. P. Singh on 23 December 2013. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. All in-text references underlined in blue are added to the original document and are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately. Nat Hazards (2009) 48:245–258 DOI 10.1007/s11069-008-9261-3 ORIGINAL PAPER Simulation of the Arabian Sea Tsunami propagation generated due to 1945 Makran Earthquake and its effect on western parts of Gujarat (India) R. K. Jaiswal Æ A. P. Singh Æ B. K. Rastogi Received: 15 April 2008 / Accepted: 30 May 2008 / Published online: 1 July 2008 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008 Abstract The 1945 Tsunami generated due to Makran Earthquake in the Arabian Sea was the most devastating tsunami in the history of the Arabian Sea and caused severe damage to property and loss of life. It occurred on 28th November 1945, 21:56 UTC (03:26 IST) with a magnitude of 8.0 (Mw), originating off the Makran Coast of Pakistan in the Arabian Sea. It has impacted as far as Mumbai in India and was noticed up to Karvar Coast, Karnataka. More than 4,000 people were killed as a result of the earthquake and the tsunami. In this paper an attempt is made for a numerical simulation of the tsunami generation from the source, its propagation into the Arabian Sea and its effect on the western coast of India through the use of a numerical model, referred to as Tunami-N2. The present simulation is carried out for a duration of 300 min. It is observed from the results that the simulated arrival time of tsunami waves at the western coast of India is in good agreement with the available data sources. The paper also presents run-up elevation maps prepared using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data, showing the possible area of inundation due to various wave heights along different parts of the Gujarat Coast. Thus, these results will be useful in planning the protection measures against inundation due to tsunami and in the implementation of a warning system. Keywords Tsunami Á Arabian Sea Á Makran Coast Á Impact on Gujarat Coast Á Inundation limits 1 Introduction Tsunami waves are the most underrated hazard affecting the population of the world living near the coastal belts. With the increasing rate of economic development of coastal regions, there is also an increase in socio-economic consequence resulting from the hazardous action of tsunami waves generated from submarine seismic activity and other causes. Therefore, the accurate early warning of tsunamis for a coastal community is of great R. K. Jaiswal (&) Á A. P. Singh Á B. K. Rastogi Institute of Seismological Research, Sector 18, Gandhinagar 382 018, Gujarat, India e-mail: [email protected] 123 246 Nat Hazards (2009) 48:245–258 Fig. 1 Historical great earthquakes of Makran Subduction Zone importance. One of the most deadly tsunamis ever recorded in the Arabian Sea occurred at 21:56 UTC (03:26 IST), on November 28, 1945, due to occurrence of a great earthquake of Mw 8.0 located at 25.204°N 63.420°E (Fig. 1), in the northern Arabian Sea, about 100 km south of Karachi and about 87 km SSW of Churi (Baluchistan), Pakistan (Pararas-Cara- yannis 2006). More than 4,000 people were killed by both the earthquake and the tsunami (Ambraseys and Melville 1982). The earthquake was also characterized by the eruption of a mud volcano, a few kilometers off the Makran Coast, which are common features in Western Pakistan. It led to the formation of four small islands. A large volume of gas that erupted from one of the islands sent flames leaping hundreds of meters into the sky (Mathur 1998). The tsunami reached a height of 12 m in some Makran ports and caused great damage to the entire coastal region (Pararas-Carayannis 2006). A great number of people were washed away due to the tsunami. The tsunami was also recorded at Muscat and Gawadar. The wave was 1.5 m high at Karachi, 2 m near Bombay, now called Mumbai (1,100 km away), 0.5 m in the Seychelles (3,400 km away), and caused notice- able effects at Karwar (1,500 km distant) and at Muscat. The transoceanic cable between India and England broke at eight places, indicating widespread slumping offshore. Part of Pasni moved, with one submarine slide shifting the coast 100 m landward. Coastal uplift at Ormara was 2 m. The wave had a run-up (i.e. flooding of dry coastal areas) height of 11.0– 11.5 m in Kutch, Gujarat (Pendse 1948). The first wave was recorded at 05:30 am, then subsequent waves arrived at 7:00 am, 7:15 am and, finally at 8:15 am. The last wave at 8:15 was the biggest. At 8:15 am, it was observed on Salsette Island, i.e. Mumbai (Newspaper archives, Mumbai). It was recorded in Bombay Harbour, Versova (Andheri), Haji Ali (Mahalaxmi), Juhu (Ville Parle), and Danda (Khar). At Versova (Andheri, Mumbai), 5 persons who were fishing were washed away. At Haji Ali (Mahalaxmi, Mumbai), 6 persons were swept into the Sea. At Danda and Juhu, several fishing boats were torn off their moorings. The tsunami did not do any damage to Bombay Harbour. Most persons who witnessed the tsunami said that it rose like the tide coming in, but much more rapidly. The height of the tsunami in Mumbai was 2 m. A total of 15 persons were washed away in Mumbai (Rastogi and Jaiswal 2006). Although large earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone are infrequent, the potential for the generation of destructive tsunamis in the Northern Arabian Sea cannot be ruled out. It is quite possible that historical tsunamis in this region have not been properly 123 Nat Hazards (2009) 48:245–258 247 reported or documented. Such past tsunamis must have affected Southern Pakistan, India, Iran, Oman, and possibly other areas as well. The sesimotectonics of the Makran Sub- duction Zone, historical earthquakes in the region, and the recent earthquake of October 8, 2005 are indicative of the active tectonic collision process that is taking place along the entire southern and southeastern boundary of the Eurasian plate as it collides with the Indian plate and adjacent microplates. Tectonic stress transference to other, stress loaded tectonic regions could trigger tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Northern Arabian Sea in the future. While earthquakes cannot be predicted in advance, once the signature of an earthquake is detected, it is possible to give about a few minutes to a few hours of notice of a potential tsunami to the coastal stations depending upon the location and how close or far it is from the earthquake epicenter. The timely and reasonably accurate early warning of the tsunami can save lives and also possibly mitigate the damage to properties. In view of this, an attempt is made here to simulate the tsunami waves generated due to earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone of the Arabian Sea that can affect the western coast of India. 2 Tectonic and tsunamigenic characteristics of the Makran Subduction Zone In order to fully understand the nature of the earthquakes that may generate tsunamis, the plate boundaries and their movement must also be understood. Tectonic activity due to plate movement is the principal cause of earthquakes, 80% of which occur along the plate boundaries in the oceanic crust. To the northwest of Indian Ocean, for millions of years, the Indian plate has been drifting and moving in the northeast direction with the Arabian plate and subducting beneath the Iranian microplates of the Eurasian block and has created an active subduction zone along the Makran Coast of Pakistan. The subducting plate has a northward dip of greater than 20°, till of 27°N, then bending down to an angle of *300. Makran Subduction Zone is one of the largest sedimentary accretionary wedges on the earth, covered with up to 7 km of thick sediments. Due to sudden slumping along Makran accretionary wedges with large amount of sediments may generate large tsunami, somewhat similar to the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake of Ms 7.0–7.3 (Piatanesi et al. 1996) which generated a large tsunami due to fall of accretionary wedges. The 1,200 km long Makran Subduction Zone of Iran and Pakistan (boundary between Iran and Pakistan runs roughly N–S at about 62°E in the coastal region) is seismically not as active as the Himalaya or Sunda Arc, but has produced great earthquakes and tsunamis in the past. The Arabian plate is converging northward into Makran Subduction Zone with an average speed of 4 cm/year (DeMets et al. 1990). Oman oceanic lithosphere slips below the Iranian micro-plate. Thrust faults are oriented nearly perpendicular to the direction of convergence. A major fault in this region has produced several tsunamigenic earthquakes.
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