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Ukrainian Gas Market

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Ukrainian Gas Market *** FOR PUBLIC USE *** Ukrainian gas market Discovering investment potential and opportunities www.pwc.com/ua PwCJune | Advisory 2018 services | Ukraine *** FOR PUBLIC USE *** PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory LLC (“PwC”) 75 Zhylyanska Street, 01032 Kyiv, Ukraine Telephone: +38 (044) 354 0404; fax: +38 (044) 354 0790 http://www.pwc.com/ua Dear Colleagues, CONTACTS: During the last years Ukraine has made tangible progress in its ambitious socio-economic reform program. In 2016-2017 the economy began to show the first signs of improvement after a sharp decrease in 2014-2015 and Olga Andrienko-Bentz Ukraine’s current trajectory provides reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the future. Director, Strategy & Operations In the gas sector, the Ukrainian government has introduced a number of very important regulatory changes [email protected] aimed to ensure market liberalisation and its harmonisation with the EU Third Energy Package. In April 2015 the Parliament has adopted a new Gas Market Law that created a legal framework for a gradual transition to a Pawel Dobrowolski competitive gas market in Ukraine. The new rules of the game have already given the first results, but a lot of Director, Oil & Gas work still lies ahead. [email protected] In recent years PwC Ukraine has gained an extensive experience working closely with policy makers, government agencies and oil & gas clients – both local and international. This report has been developed to Vladyslav Medvedev provide the most up-to-date information to all market stakeholders and create a basis for their familiarisation Project Manager, Strategy & Operations with the progress in one of the most important and most challenging reforms for Ukraine. [email protected] We believe that Ukrainian gas market has a great and still untapped potential for development and growth, as well as broad opportunities for institutional and private investors. Realisation of these opportunities will help to reach the goal of country’s energy independence, attract the best technological solutions for efficiency improvement and make Ukraine a reliable partner on the European energy market within the foreseeable future. We would also like to express our appreciation to DiXi Group, IMEPOWER and CMS Cameron McKenna Nabarro Olswang for their input and valuable ideas that are reflected in this report. Yours sincerely, PwC Team Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this presentation without obtaining specific professional advice. All informational sources used for particular analyses are listed in footnotes on respective slides. Various statistical agencies use different methods and approaches in their assessments. Therefore, numbers in different parts of this report may differ depending on the sources of information used for a particular analysis. PwC relied on information from the sources that, in our view, are the most relevant and reliable for the purposes of analysis. PwC | Advisory services | Ukraine Ukrainian gas market June 2018 1 *** FOR PUBLIC USE *** Ukraine’s natural gas potential is really high, and ongoing market liberalisation could benefit both society and business in the long run Executive summary . Ukraine’s economy has stabilised after the 2014-2015 crisis and its current trajectory provides reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the future. The pro-European government supported by the global community is moving forward with an ambitious reforms agenda to put Ukraine’s weak economy back on solid ground and create a welcoming business environment (+76 positions in Doing Business ranking during the last years). Ukraine is actively pursuing energy supply diversification policies and has already made a great step forward in the Gas sector. Gas market liberalisation: started from adoption of the Gas Law in 2015, has already produced some initial results, but a lot of work still lies ahead: Ukraine has enough natural gas reserves (№3 country in Europe) to materially substitute import and aims to increase domestic production from 20 to 28 bcm by 2020. This ambitious target requires a set of regulatory and fiscal enablers to be in place at the national level. During the last years Ukraine completely switched to natural gas imports from European direction; moreover, it has reduced imports by 50% between 2013-2017 – from 28 to 14 bcm. The segment has been opened for competition (67 importers at EU borders in 2017) and leading European companies have already launched their operations in Ukraine. Ukrainian gas transmission system is one of the most powerful in the world and being used for transit of the majority of Russian gas to the EU. With the risk of construction of pipelines bypassing Ukraine and the expiration of transit contract with Gazprom, preserving gas transit through Ukraine (which currently generates ~3% of Ukraine’s GDP) became a question of national security. Ukraine is looking for international partner to manage its GTS, bring technological know-how and secure transit flows after 2019. Capacity of Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities is the largest in Europe, equals to nearly a third of EU-28 capacity and is currently being underutilised. Taking into account the available infrastructure, Ukraine could be a natural candidate for an Eastern European Gas Hub. Total length of Ukrainian gas distribution system is 292 ths kilometers, connected to more than 12 million end consumers. There are 44 licensed DSOs in Ukraine - most of them are controlled by the private business group. Ukraine’s natural gas consumption shows a steady decline during the last decades and amounted to 32 bcm in 2017 (only 65% of demand was satisfied by local production). It consists of two nearly equally-sized segments – regulated and non-regulated. The regulated segment is being supplied at regulated prices and operates under public service obligations (that mandate procurement of domestic natural gas from UGV by Naftogaz and its subsequent sale to suppliers to households, religious organisations, and DHC). Pricing in non-regulated segment is determined by the market. The Ukrainian gas market is at a stage of its transformation which creates opportunities for new market entrants. We believe that Ukraine is attractive for investors in the long run, but a thoughtful entry strategy is required for success. Source: PwC analysis PwC | Advisory services | Ukraine Ukrainian gas market June 2018 2 *** FOR PUBLIC USE *** Contents 1.1 Macroeconomic fundamentals 2.2 Ukraine’s energy sector summary 3.3 Overview of Ukrainian gas market . Exploration & Production . Import / trading . Transmission and storage . Distribution . Consumption / End-use 4. PwC in Ukraine PwC | Advisory services | Ukraine Ukrainian gas market June 2018 3 1 2 3 4 *** FOR PUBLIC USE *** Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe with significant potential for economic development and growth Ukraine at a glance Area – 603.6 ths km2 S (one of the largest countries in Europe) Population – ~42.3 million1 (~70% is urban-based) Location Convenient trade GDP per capita in 2017 – 8 710 USD hub to EU, Middle East and Asia (adjusted by purchasing power parity) Average salary in April 2018 ~ 325 USD / month (one of the most cost-competitive manufacturing platforms in Europe) Free Trade agreements (valid with EU, Canada, EFTA etc.; ongoing negotiations with Turkey and Israel) 1) Excluding temporary occupied territory of Crimea and Sevastopol Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, EIU “Ukraine: 5-year forecast table” as of 15 May 2018 PwC | Advisory services | Ukraine Ukrainian gas market June 2018 4 1 2 3 4 *** FOR PUBLIC USE *** Ukraine’s economy has stabilised after recent crisis and its current trajectory provides reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the future Ukraine’s macroeconomic context Dynamics of real GDP and consumer prices Net foreign direct investment (%, 2013–2022F) (USD bln, 2013–2022F) forecast forecast 5.6 43.3% 4.6 4.1 3.3 3.7 3.0 2.8 3.2 2.2 0.3 24.9% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 13.7% 1 12.4% 9.0% UAH / USD exchange rates 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% (UAH / USD, 2013–2022F) 0.5% forecast 3.2% 4.0% 2.4% 2.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7% 0.0% 29.5 29.9 30.1 25.6 26.6 27.5 29.2 21.8 -6.6% -9.8% 8.0 11.9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Change of real GDP, % Change of consumer prices (year-end), % Source: IMF, EIU “Ukraine: 5-year forecast table” as of 15 May 2018 PwC | Advisory services | Ukraine Ukrainian gas market June 2018 5 1 2 3 4 *** FOR PUBLIC USE *** The government is actively working on improving state regulation and making Ukraine more attractive to investors Doing Business in Ukraine Ukraine's position in the ranking of “Doing Business” Key components of the ranking “Doing Business 2018” (2011–2020P) (Ukraine's position in the ranking) According to the Strategy “Ukraine-2020” Protecting Starting a Minority TOP Business 52 Investors 81 17030 Dealing with Construction Paying Taxes Permits 35 43 76 81 80 96 Getting Trading across Electricity 128 Borders 119 112 137 Registering Enforcing Property 64 Contracts 82 149 152 Resolving Getting Credit 29 Insolvency 149 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Source: WB Group PwC | Advisory services | Ukraine Ukrainian gas market June 2018 6 1 2 3 4 *** FOR PUBLIC USE *** Recent reforms and anti-corruption campaign are signs of Ukraine’s continuing move towards Europe Ukraine and other post-Soviet states in political freedom and corruption perception ratings Transparency International Corruption Index (0 = “highly corrupt”, 100 = “highly clean”) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 . EU group of countries Lithuania Slovakia Czech Estonia characterised by higher republic Poland political freedom and Bulgaria 2 Latvia lower level of corruption Romania Ukraine 2017 Hungary .
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