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Scenarios Assessing the Viability of a Lynx Population in Germany

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Scenarios Assessing the Viability of a Lynx Population in Germany Lehrstuhl für Landschaftsökologie der Technischen Universität München Scenarios assessing the viability of a lynx population in Germany. Szenarien für eine lebensfähige Luchs- population in Deutschland. Stephanie A. Schadt Vollständiger Abdruck der von der Fakultät Wissenschaftszentrum Weihenstephan für Ernährung, Landnutzung und Umwelt der Technischen Universität München zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Naturwissenschaften (Dr. rer. nat.) genehmigten Dissertation. Vorsitzender: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Gerhard Müller-Starck Prüfer der Dissertation: 1. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Ludwig Trepl 2. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schröder 3. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Christian Wissel, Philipps-Universität Marburg (schriftliche Beurteilung) Die Dissertation wurde am 27.03.2002 bei der Technischen Universität München eingereicht und durch die Fakultät Wissenschaftszentrum Weihenstephan für Ernährung, Landnutzung und Umwelt am 14.06.2002 angenommen. Diese Arbeit wurde gefördert durch ein Stipendium der Deutschen Bundesstiftung Umwelt und durch Sachmittel der Deutschen Wildtier Stiftung. Hinweise zum Lesen der Dissertation Die vorliegende Arbeit spannt den Rahmen von der Auswertung im Feld erhobener Daten bis hin zu detaillierten Szenarien und Management-Vorschlägen für eine lebens- fähige Luchspopulation in Deutschland. Die Methodik der vorgestellten Modellansätze - Habitatmodellierung, Entwurf und Kalibrierung eines Ausbreitungsmodells und Ein- bezug populationsdynamischer Aspekte in ein Simulationsmodell - ist jeweils über die Thematik "Luchs in Deutschland" hinaus relevant. Daher sind die einzelnen Hauptka- pitel in englischer Sprache verfaßt, und jedes Kapitel stellt für sich eine Einheit dar. Kurze Wiederholungen der wichtigsten Ergebnisse aus den vorherigen Kapiteln sind daher unvermeidlich. In den jeweiligen Kapiteln wird einleitend genauer auf die Modellierungs-Methode und den Stand der Forschung eingegangen. Den drei Kapiteln vorangestellt ist eine Einführung in die generelle Fragestellung mit einem kurzen Abriß des Forschungsstandes. Der chronologische Aufbau der einzelnen Kapitel aufeinander wird hier in einem eigenen Unterkapitel erläutert. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse werden am Ende nochmals zusammengefaßt und diskutiert. Explanation of the structure of this dissertation The dissertation aims to develop management proposals for a viable lynx population in Germany. Consequently, the material presented here covers a range of approaches and techniques, from the analysis of field data to detailed modelling scenarios. As the methods in the single chapters - habitat modelling, design and calibration of a dispersal model and inclusion of population-dynamical aspects into a simulation model - extend the scope of "lynx in Germany" and are generally important for conservation biology, they are composed in English language. Each of the chapters represents a thematic unit, in which the methods and the state of research are highlighted more explicitly. Short repetitions of the most important results of the previous chapters are therefore inevitable. For each chapter, a short German introduction and summary of the most important results are provided. Verzeichnisse Inhaltsverzeichnis KAPITEL I ALLGEMEINE EINLEITUNG 1 Problemdarstellung 1 Modelle in der ökologischen Forschung 2 Modelle der Populationsdynamik des Eurasischen Luchses 2 Die statische Komponente: Habitatmodellierung 3 Die dynamische Komponente: Populationssimulation 5 Fragestellungen, Methodik und Aufbau der Arbeit 6 Literatur 8 CHAPTER II THE HABITAT SUITABILITY MODEL 13 Abstract 13 Introduction 14 Methods 15 Spatial scales 16 Study areas and lynx telemetry data 17 GIS data base and preparation 19 Lynx biology and predictive environmental variables 20 Statistical analyses and model design 22 Results 25 Discussion 29 Gains and shortcomings 29 Implications for management and future research 32 Acknowledgements 33 References 34 i Verzeichnisse CHAPTER III THE DISPERSAL MODEL 38 Abstract 38 Introduction 39 Methods 41 Modeling strategy 41 Study areas and telemetric data basis 42 The habitat suitability map 43 Dispersal model rules 46 Movement patterns and parameter assessment 48 Methods for model calibration 50 Dispersal scenarios for Germany 50 Results 52 Model calibration 52 Parameter range and sensitivity analysis 53 The scenarios 54 Discussion 57 The modeling approach 57 Connected patches and management conclusions 58 Proposals for future applications and research 61 References 62 Appendix 1 65 CHAPTER IV THE POPULATION SIMULATION MODEL 68 Abstract 68 Introduction 69 Methods 71 Life history of Eurasian lynx 71 Study area 73 The model components 73 Management Scenarios 78 Results 82 Sensitivity analysis 82 Population Scenarios 83 Landscape scenarios 87 ii Verzeichnisse Discussion 90 Limitations of the PVA 90 The future of a lynx population in Germany 91 Recommendations for reintroductions 92 References 93 Appendix 2 97 KAPITEL V DISKUSSION UND ZUSAMMENFASSUNG 102 Das Habitatmodell 102 Aufbau des Modells und Methodik 103 Anwendung im Naturschutz 104 Das Ausbreitungsmodell 105 Aufbau des Modells und Methodik 105 Anwendung im Naturschutz 107 Das Populationsmodell 108 Aufbau des Modells und Methodik 108 Anwendung im Naturschutz 109 Schlußbemerkung 111 Literatur 114 DANKSAGUNG iii Verzeichnisse Abbildungsverzeichnis Figure 1. .................................................... ................................................................................................ 16 Figure 2. .................................................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 3. .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 4. .................................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 5. .................................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 6. .................................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 7. .................................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 8. .................................................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 9. .................................................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 10. .................................................................................................................................................. 45 Figure 11. .................................................................................................................................................. 46 Figure 12. .................................................................................................................................................. 56 Figure 13. .................................................................................................................................................. 57 Figure 14. .................................................................................................................................................. 75 Figure 15. .................................................................................................................................................. 76 Figure 16. .................................................................................................................................................. 77 Figure 17. .................................................................................................................................................. 81 Figure 18. .................................................................................................................................................. 83 Figure 19. .................................................................................................................................................. 85 Figure 20. .................................................................................................................................................. 85 Tabellenverzeichnis Table 1. ..................................................................................................................................................... 20 Table 2. .................................................................................................................................................... 25 Table 3. ..................................................................................................................................................... 27 Table 4. ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 Table 5. ..................................................................................................................................................... 43 Table 6. .................................................................................................................................................... 47 Table 7 .....................................................................................................................................................
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