Communities Department Socio Economic Update No. 43

March 2021

Shawbost

IN THIS ISSUE (click on links)

Comhairle nan Eilean Siar - Socio Economic Update No. 43 Socio Economic Update No. 43

Household Projections 2018 based Household Projections were As shown in the chart below in 2028, in all age published by National Records of in groups (apart from 16-19 years) up to the age of September 2020. The projections are produced 69 years old, men are projected to be more likely every two years and show how many additional to live alone than women. households would form based on previous From the age of 70 onwards, women are trends. projected to be more likely to live alone than Nationally, the number of households is men and this likelihood increases with age. projected to increase by 5% (120,000) to 2.60 Adult female households in the 90+ age group million in 2028. The number is projected are projected to rise from 141 households in to decrease by 2.3% from 12,773 to 12,478 2018 to 203 households in 2028, in contrast to households in the . 20 male households in 90+ age group in 2028. Over the period 2018 to 2043 the Outer This reflects the continued higher life expectancy Hebrides is projected to have the highest of females than males. decrease in households at 11%. Scotland’s population is ageing. One person Adult Male & Female Households 2018 & 2028 450 households are the main household type and 400 350 this is projected to continue with households 300 250 with children declining. 200 150 100 In 2028, 1 adult households are projected to 50 remain the most common (41.8%) in the Outer 0 Hebrides and 1 adult plus one or more children 1 adult male 2018 1 adult male projected 2028 is projected to remain the least common (4.3%). 1 adult female 2018 1 adult female projected 2028 In addition, between 2018 and 2028 the 50-54 year age group will see the largest percentage decrease (-24.1%) and the 90 & over age group The chart below shows the projected change is projected to have the largest increase (+41%) in household type between 2018 and 2028. in the Outer Hebrides. As shown the projected increases are in the 1 In 2028, the largest age group is projected to and 2 adult households while decreases are be the 75-79 age group, in comparison to the projected in larger households with the largest 50-54 age group in 2018, highlighting the ageing decrease (-15%) in the 2+ adults plus child(ren) population. households. Average household size continues on a downward trend. From 2018-2028 Projected number of households in Outer Hebrides by household type, 2018 and 2028 6,000 it will decrease by 7% in both Scotland 2018 5,000 Small increases projected in 2028 + 2% households containing one or and the Outer Hebrides. However, two adults 4,000 from 1998 to 2028 it will decrease by + 1% 3,000 Numbers of larger households 15% in the Outer Hebrides and 10% in are projected to fall

Number of of households Number 2,000 Scotland. By 2027 it is projected to fall - 15% 1,000 below 2.0 in the Outer Hebrides. - 8% - 8% 0 1 adult 2 adults 1 adult with children 2+ adults with 3+ adults children Year Outer Hebrides Scotland Type of household 1998 2.35 2.31 2008 2.19 2.18 Between 2018 and 2028 increases in households 2018 2.07 2.15 are projected in all but 4 council areas; Outer Hebrides, Argyll & Bute, Inverclyde and North 2028 1.99 2.08 Ayrshire. 2043 1.93 2.00

Page 2 Socio Economic Update No. 43 Small Area Population Estimates Total % Change pop. 2011 to National Records of Scotland published Data zone 2019 2019 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPES) for Eriskay to South Boisdale 466 -12.2 mid-2019 in August 2020. Newton to Plasterfield 743 -11.8 Scotland’s 32 Council areas are made up of Galson to 572 -11.7 6,976 data zones. There are 36 data zones in the Outer Hebrides. Most data zones Loch Roag 441 -11.1 contain between 500 and 1,000 people. to Port of Ness 712 -9.8 Uig and Bernera 715 -8.3 Over the last decade 2009 to 2019 population decline has mainly occurred in North Manor Park 610 -7.9 island and rural council areas, and some in Goathill 804 -7.8 the West of Scotland. However, cities tend Coulegrain to Stenish 609 -7.7 to experience increases. Loch Eynort to Iochdar 697 -6.6 The data zone with the highest population Knock to 791 -6.2 in Scotland is Currie West in Edinburgh Loch Boisdale 591 -5.4 with 3,784 people, as it contains student Sheshader to Tiumpan Head 575 -5.4 accommodation. North Bayhead () 618 -5.2 Over the period 2009 to 2019 the Outer to Borve 716 -4.9 Hebrides experienced the largest average Pairc and Kinloch 881 -4.8 change in median age in Scotland at 4.1 years while Dundee City had the lowest at to 595 -4.8 -0.1 years. Central Stornoway 836 -4.8 Over this period 94% (34 data zones) South Harris 870 -4.7 became older in terms of median age . West North Uist to Baleshare 690 -4.6 In contrast, 44% in Dundee City became to Brue 701 -3.8 younger. North Benbecula 787 -3.6 Ruchill in Glasgow has the lowest median Grimsay, East North Uist to Berneray 872 -3.5 age of 20 years, as it contains student Coll to Back 908 -2.7 accommodation for Glasgow University. North Harris and Scalpay 957 -2.5 Over the period 2009-2019, 11 data zones Marybank to Newvalley 1058 -2.1 (31%) in the Outer Hebrides experienced Springfield 606 -1.8 an increase while 25 data zones (69%) 789 -1.6 experienced a decrease in population. Vatersay to Castlebay 621 -0.5 Over the last year from 2018 to 2019, the Tong to Upper Coll 1088 -0.2 3 data zones with the highest estimated percentage population increase were: North Barra 660 0.6 South Benbecula 527 1.9 • to Braighe +5.2% (51) to Tolsta 727 2.0 • Eriskay to South Boisdale +3.3% (15) 914 3.9 • Newmarket +2.7% (25) Newmarket 936 4.0 The 3 data zones with the highest estimated Melbost to Braighe 1037 18.5 population increase over the year 2018 to The table above highlights the difference in population 2019 were: change in different data zones. While Melbost to • North Manor Park -5.7% (-37) Braighe has increased by 162 (18.5%) mainly due to increased affordable housing development, Eriskay to • Central Stornoway -4.5% (-39) South Boisdale has decreased by 65(12.2%). It also • Springfield -2.7% (-17) highlights the difference in size, with Loch Roag (441) the smallest and Tong to Upper Coll (1088) the largest. Page 3 Socio Economic Update No. 43 Small Area Data Zone Total pop. % under 16 %16-64 % 65+ Population Vatersay to Castlebay 621 19 57 23 Estimates North Barra 660 19 53 28 Eriskay to South Boisdale 466 12 54 33 The adjacent table Loch Boisdale 591 16 59 25 shows the broad age Loch Eynort to Iochdar 697 19 57 24 groups by data zone for 2019 for each data South Benbecula 527 19 58 24 zone. North Benbecula 787 24 60 16 There are large West North Uist to Baleshare 690 15 55 30 variations within the Grimsay, East North Uist to Berneray 872 11 59 30 Outer Hebrides, with South Harris 870 13 53 34 some data zones North Harris and Scalpay 957 14 57 30 having a much older Pairc and Kinloch 881 15 58 27 profile than others. North Lochs 914 15 58 27 Uig and Bernera Uig and Bernera 715 7 59 33 has the smallest Loch Roag 441 12 55 32 percentage under 16, at 7%, while Melbost Carloway to Shawbost 595 12 62 26 to the Braighe, Tong to Bragar to Brue 701 14 62 24 Upper Coll and North Barvas to Borve 716 15 59 26 Benbecula all have the Galson to Swainbost 572 10 57 33 highest at 24%. Habost to Port of Ness 712 14 54 32 Goathill has the Gress to Tolsta 727 16 56 28 smallest working age Coll to Back 908 17 61 22 population at 51%, while Newmarket has Tong to Upper Coll 1088 24 58 18 the highest at 67%. Newmarket 936 19 67 14 Marybank to Newvalley 1058 17 63 20 Newmarket has the smallest 65+ age North Manor Park 610 20 63 18 group at 14% while North Bayhead (Stornoway) 618 11 63 26 Goathill has the Central Stornoway 836 14 60 26 highest at 36%. Newton to Plasterfield 743 12 59 29 As such, with the data Springfield 606 16 57 27 zone areas varying Goathill 804 14 51 36 so greatly, the island Coulegrain to Stenish 609 14 56 30 areas do too. Melbost to Braighe 1037 24 58 18 The adjacent table Garrabost 789 18 61 21 shows that Barra and Knock to Bayble 791 16 58 26 Vatersay have the highest under 16 age Sheshader to Tiumpan Head 575 15 55 30 group at 19% (Scot. Island Area % Under 16 % 16-64 % 65+ avg. 17%) and Harris Barra & Vatersay 19 55 26 have the greatest 16 57 27 65+ age group at 32% (Scot.avg. 19%). Benbecula 22 59 19 Benbecula and Lewis North Uist 13 57 30 have 59% aged 16-64 Harris 13 55 32 (Scot.avg. 64%). Lewis 16 59 25 Outer Hebrides 16 59 25 Page 4 Socio Economic Update No. 43

Migration National Records of Scotland (NRS) produces data on Migration. NRS updated local area migration data in August 2020. The publication brings together migration-related indicators from different sources for council areas and health board areas. The chart below shows the net migration in 5 year age groups for island areas. It clearly shows that there is significant loss in the 15-19 age group and also 25-29 and 20-24 year age groups for all island areas. However, the loss has been less than in previous years in the 15-19 year age group in the OuterHebrides. In 2015-16 the loss was -90. Usually, the Outer Hebrides always has the greatest loss in this age group, however, this year it is Shetland. Net gain is mainly in 5-14 and 30-64 age groups. Over the year net gains were as follows: Outer Hebrides +50, Orkney +145 and Shetland -88.

Net migration by 5 year age group in island areas 2018/19 47 38 40 30 29 27 27 27 20 20 19 16 16 13 14 1414 12 12 20 10 7 10 3 3 5 3 5 3 3 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1 2 2 0 -1 -2-4 -1 -1 -4 -6 -8 -20 -12 -17 -18 -15 -16 -14 Number -23 -30 -40

-47 -60 -57

-80 -77

Outer Hebrides Orkney Islands Shetland Islands

The chart below shows the migration flows from the Outer Hebrides for the year 2018-2019. The chart shows that the largest percentage of people moving within Scotland, left to go to Glasgow City (128 people) while the smallest percentage, not shown, went to Clackmannanshire (1 person). A larger number (140) went to the rest of the UK, while 60 went overseas. A large number (120) also went to the council area. A total of 800 left the Outer Hebrides in 2018-19 while 850 arrived, leaving net migration of +50.

Orkney Dundee City South Ayrshire Aberdeen City Argyll&Bute Perth & Kinross 2% 1% East Ayrshire 2% 5% Angus 3% 2% Falkirk Dumfries & Galloway 1% East Renfrewshire 1% Aberdeenshire 1% 1% 1% 3% Scottish Borders 1% North Ayrshire Fife 1% Rest of UK 3% North 18% Lanarkshire 1% Edinburgh City 6%

Highland 15%

Overseas Moray 8% 3% Glasgow City West 17% Dunbartonshire 1% Renfrewshire 2% South Lanarkshire 2%

Migration Flow from Outer Hebrides 2018-2019 (areas with numbers less than 5 excluded) Page 5 Socio Economic Update No. 43

Migration Net migration in Island areas 2009 to 2019 Over the period 2009 to 2019 net 250 220 migration has varied greatly in all 200 200 160 160 150 island areas. Orkney has had the 110 90 100 100 70 80 70 highest net migration in all but the 60 50 20 10 20 -20 -10 -10 -20 first two years and has had positive -40 -70 -70 migration every year over this period. -90 -90 -80 -90 -130 The Outer Hebrides has had positive net migration since 2016-17, while

Shetland has mainly had negative Outer Hebrides Orkney Islands Shetland Islands migration. Over the whole period net migration has been as follows: Outer Hebrides +310, Orkney +1,530 and Shetland National Insurance Number (NINo) Allocations in the -110. Outer Hebrides and Scotland 2009 - 2019 90 60,000 80 50,000 70 60 40,000 The number of National Insurance 50 30,000 40 Number (NiNO) allocations has 30 20,000 (Hundreds) 20 increased in Scotland by 16% from 10,000 (Thousands) 10 Number of Allocations of Number

41,610 in 2009 to 48,190 in 2019. This 0 0 Allocations of Number is the highest number over the period. However, in the Outer Hebrides the Outer Hebrides SCOTLAND trend was down in 2019 and the number remains the same in 2019 as it was in 2009 at 50. The highest number was in 2015 with a total of 70. Number of Births to non-UK mothers in the Outer Hebrides and Scotland 2009 - 2019

30 9,500

Over the decade the highest number 25 9,000 20 of births to non-UK mothers, both in 8,500 15 the Outer Hebrides and Scotland, was (Tens) 8,000

10 (Thousands) Number of of Number Births in 2016. The number of births remains of Number Births 5 7,500 low in the Outer Hebrides with 10 0 7,000 births in 2019. Births in Scotland have been decreasing since 2016 and are Outer Hebrides SCOTLAND continuing to do so.

The number of pupils from minority Pupils from minority ethnic groups in the ethnic groups is showing a steady Outer Hebrides and Scotland 2009 - 2019 increase in both the Outer Hebrides 80 70,000 and Scotland. Over the decade the 70 60,000 60 50,000 50 percentage of pupils from minority 40,000 40 (Tens) 30,000 ethnic groups has increased by 37% 30

20 20,000 (Thousands)

in the Outer Hebrides and by 73% in of pupils Number 10 10,000 of Pupils Number Scotland. 0 0

Outer Hebrides SCOTLAND

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Life Expectancy National Records of Scotland published Life Expectancy 2017-2019 in September 2020. Life expectancy in Scotland is the lowest in Life expectancy for women is highest the UK and Scotland also has the lowest life in East Renfrewshire at 84 years, and expectancy in the 16 nations that make up lowest in Glasgow City at 78.5 years. Western Europe. Male life expectancy is highest in East Deprivation continues to have an impact on life Dunbartonshire at 80.5 years and expectancy. The gap between the most and lowest in Glasgow City at 73.6 years. least deprived areas continues, with the gap for The publication does not take into men being 13.3 years and the gap for women 10 account the effects of Covid 19 on years. life expectancy as it covers the years Life expectancy for men at birth is 77.1 and 81.1 2017-19. for females. Life expectancy at age 65 is 17.7 for Covid 19 was first mentioned on a men and 19.8 for women. Scottish death certificate in the week beginning 16 March 2020. What is ‘life expectancy at older ages’? The table below shows the gap in life expectancy at birth between men and women in all Council Areas in Life expectancy at older ages can be Scotland. quite a confusing concept - how can a

man aged 65 expect to live 17.7 years The Outer Hebrides continues to have the highest gap in life expectancy when life expectancy at birth is 77.1 at birth between men and women, years? The best explanation for this is along with Dundee City. The Outer that life expectancy is an average Hebrides and Dundee City, have the which is affected by people dying at highest gap in Scotland at 5.6 years younger ages as well as in old age. (after rounding up). While the average number of years People living in rural areas tend to a baby boy might live is 77, if he have a higher life expectancy than makes it to 65 without dying, then the those living in urban areas. People generally live longer and spend more average number of years left is 17.7. years in good health in rural areas. Source: National Records of Scotland

Difference in life expectancy at birth between males and females 2017-2019

6.0 5.6 5.6 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.3 Years 2.0 1.0 0.0

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Gross Weekly Pay Characteristics of Hate Crime Information from the Annual Survey of The Scottish Government has published Hours and Earnings shows the levels of gross A Study into the Characteristics of Police weekly pay all over the , Recorded Hate Crime in Scotland. some of which are highlighted in the table For the purposes of this report, a hate crime is below. any crime which is perceived by the victim or any other person, to be motivated (wholly or partly) by malice and ill-will towards a social group. Earnings by residence 2020 The police recorded 6,448 hate crimes in 2019- Gross weekly pay 2020. The number of hate crimes recorded by All full time workers per 10,000 of the population £ was highest in Glasgow City and the City of Edinburgh local authority areas (25 and 23 Outer Hebrides 562.00 crimes per 10,000 population respectively). Orkney 572.20 The Shetland Islands and Orkney Islands had Great Britain 587.10 the lowest rates. Scotland 595.00 In over half of crimes (58%), the victim did not know the perpetrator, whilst in a further 30% of Shetland 655.00 cases, the perpetrator was an acquaintance of the victim. Source: NOMIS Around a third of hate crime in Scotland involved a victim who experienced the incident at their place of work or whilst undertaking duties as part of their occupation. Most Gross weekly pay in the Outer Hebrides has of these victims were working in retail or increased by 8.5% since last year. Although other service industries. Almost two-thirds pay has increased, the Outer Hebrides of hate crime victims and three quarters of has the 8th lowest pay in Council Areas in perpetrators were male. In around half of Scotland. crimes the victim did not know the perpetrator, East Renfrewshire has the highest pay in with more than a third involving a perpetrator Scotland at £815.20, (45% higher than the who was an acquaintance of the victim. Outer Hebrides pay), while Dumfries and Galloway has the lowest at £517.50 (8% lower than the Outer Hebrides pay). 2019-20 Hate Crimes Recorded Pay in Orkney has decreased over the year • Outer Hebrides 14 by 4%, while the Great Britain pay remains • Orkney 2 the same. Pay in Scotland has increased by 3%, while pay in Shetland has increased by • Shetland 1 almost 10% and is now the 3rd highest in Scotland. There was a large increase in hate crimes Pay in the Orkney Islands is now 1.8% higher recorded in the Outer Hebrides over the year than that of the Outer Hebrides, while pay from 4 crimes recorded in 2018-19. in the Shetland Islands is now 16.5% higher This has also resulted in the rate per 10,000 than that of the Outer Hebrides. The average crimes increasing from 1 to 5 in the Outer pay in Scotland is now 5.9% higher than pay Hebrides. The rate in the Orkney Islands in the Outer Hebrides. remains at 1 and is 0 in the Shetland Islands.

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Covid Local Economic Impact The Improvement Service has produced a tool which summarises the data available relating to the current economic impact of Covid 19. This information is available at Local Authority level, giving details of the current uptake in Council Areas of government support available. Information is available on the following: • The Coronovarius Job Retention Scheme - Employments Furloughed • The Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) - Third Grant • Unemployment benefit claims • The COVID Strategic Framework Business Fund On the whole, Covid appears to have had less of an impact on island areas than the rest of Scotland, when using these measures. The island areas, along with Aberdeenshire, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire, have suffered less impact while Covid appears to have had the largest impact on Highland Council.

Information below is for all island areas and Scotland, as at January and February 2021. Outer Measure Hebrides Orkney Shetland Scotland

Total Furloughed (Feb) 1,400 900 1,000 364,100 Rate per 100 aged 16-64 9.0 6.7 7.1 10.4

Unemployment Benefit Claimant Count (Feb) 775 375 465 213,325 Claimants per pop. aged 16-64 5 2.8 3.3 6.1

Total Self-Employment Support Scheme - 700 700 400 131,000 Third Grant Claim (SEISS) (Jan) SEISS Claims per 100 potentially eligible pop. 55 40 47 64

Total Covid Strategic Framework Business 375 36 214 43,218 Fund Grants Awarded (Feb)

Business Grants per 100 Small or Micro 25.4 2.1 11.9 20 Businesses

The measures above show that for most measures the Orkney and Shetland Islands tend to have the lowest rates in Scotland and the Outer Hebrides tends to have the 4th or 5th lowest. The only exception to this is in Business Grants per 100 Small or Micro Businesses where the Outer Hebrides had the 7th highest rate in Scotland. With reference to Unemployment Benefit Claimant Count the following percentage increases have occurred between January 2020 and February 2021: Outer Hebrides: 84.5% increase; Orkney: 97.4% increase; Shetland 102.2% increase. All measures for all the areas have increased since December 2020.

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Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics Quantity and Value of all landings in the Outer Hebrides 2015 to 2019 2019 6000 20000 5000 The Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics 2019 15000 were published in September 2020. 4000 3000 10000 Mackerel remained the most valuable species 2000 5000 landed by the Scottish fleet, representing 27 1000 (£'000) Value per cent of the value of all Scottish vessels’ (tonnes) Quantity 0 0 landings. Nephrops is the second most 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Quantity Value valuable species, with 15 per cent of the total value. Haddock became the most valuable demersal species overtaking cod with monkfish third. Together, haddock, cod and monkfish account Number of vessels in Island areas for 20 per cent of the value of Scottish 2015 to 2019 250 214215 219221 210 208 209201 vessels’ landings. 188 200 184

The quantity of landings in the Outer 150 132 131 128 128 127

Hebrides W has decreased over the 5 year 100 period by 4.2%. However, the value of the 50 landings has increased by 57.1%. 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 The number of vessels in the Outer Hebrides has increased by 4.3% over the 5 year O Hebrides Shetland Orkney period, while the numbers in Shetland have increased by 20%. Vessel numbers in Orkney have decreased by 3.8%. Number of fishermen employed in the Fraserburgh is the district with the highest Outer Hebrides 2015 to 2019 number of vessels with 223 vessels (11 per 400 360 376 337 cent of the Scottish fleet) . This was closely 318 290 303 followed by Shetland (221) and Stornoway 300 262 268 256 258

(219) districts. 200 92 Number Fraserburgh is the district with the largest 100 53 58 48 42 17 17 2 5 26 number of fishers (797) accounting for 16 per 0 cent of the total in 2019. It is also the district 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 with the largest number of fishers who Total Regular Irregular Crofters work regularly, with 788 regularly employed fishers. Shetland had the most irregular fishers (254), accounting for 28 per cent of Employment in Fishing as proportion of the total fishers in this category. Stornoway total employed in Scotland - the three was the district with the largest number of island areas have the highest proportions in crofters employed (26), accounting for 67 per Scotland. cent of the total fishers in this category. The number of fishers in the Outer Hebrides has increased by 4.4% over the 5 year period, Outer Shetland rising from 360 to 376. Orkney Hebrides 4.21% 2.38% 2.79%

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ScotlandsPeople Scotland’s People have recently added Kirk sessions to their web page. Images of more than a million pages from the kirk sessions and other court records of the Church of Scotland, containing details of key events in communities across the country between 1559 and 1900, have been added to ScotlandsPeople, NRS’s online research service. These records offer remarkable insights into the everyday lives of ordinary Scots, recording important moments such as births, marriages and deaths. If you have any queries or suggestions Global Grasshopper – an award winning blog regarding this bulletin please contact: and resource for independent travellers has recommended the top 10 most beautiful places to visit in the Outer Hebrides. Kathleen Shirkie, Research Officer, Unsurprisingly, beaches in the Outer Hebrides Communities Department, Comhairle nan continue to get recognised as being the most Eilean Siar, Sandwick Road, Stornoway, Isle of beautiful, continuing to get listed as some of Lewis, HS1 2BW the best, both UK and European wide. [email protected] The latest is Lonely Planet, a leading travel guide. Listed in the top 20 best beaches This e-bulletin is also available (along with past in Europe by Lonely Planet, was the West issues) on the Comhairle’s internet/intranet in Beach in Berneray. West Beach was the only the ‘Fact File’, click below. Scottish entry. Lonely Planet also listed the 11 most beautiful beaches in the UK to visit. Listed here are Luskentyre and Traigh Mhor, Barra.

FACTFILE Top Girl’s and Boy’s Names 2020 Scotland Outer Hebrides Jack Alexander, Lachlan Isla Freya

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