Communities Department Socio Economic Update No. 43 March 2021 Shawbost IN THIS ISSUE (click on links) Comhairle nan Eilean Siar - Socio Economic Update No. 43 Socio Economic Update No. 43 Household Projections 2018 based Household Projections were As shown in the chart below in 2028, in all age published by National Records of Scotland in groups (apart from 16-19 years) up to the age of September 2020. The projections are produced 69 years old, men are projected to be more likely every two years and show how many additional to live alone than women. households would form based on previous From the age of 70 onwards, women are trends. projected to be more likely to live alone than Nationally, the number of households is men and this likelihood increases with age. projected to increase by 5% (120,000) to 2.60 Adult female households in the 90+ age group million in 2028. The number is projected are projected to rise from 141 households in to decrease by 2.3% from 12,773 to 12,478 2018 to 203 households in 2028, in contrast to households in the Outer Hebrides. 20 male households in 90+ age group in 2028. Over the period 2018 to 2043 the Outer This reflects the continued higher life expectancy Hebrides is projected to have the highest of females than males. decrease in households at 11%. Scotland’s population is ageing. One person Adult Male & Female Households 2018 & 2028 450 households are the main household type and 400 350 this is projected to continue with households 300 250 with children declining. 200 150 100 In 2028, 1 adult households are projected to 50 remain the most common (41.8%) in the Outer 0 Hebrides and 1 adult plus one or more children 1 adult male 2018 1 adult male projected 2028 is projected to remain the least common (4.3%). 1 adult female 2018 1 adult female projected 2028 In addition, between 2018 and 2028 the 50-54 year age group will see the largest percentage decrease (-24.1%) and the 90 & over age group The chart below shows the projected change is projected to have the largest increase (+41%) in household type between 2018 and 2028. in the Outer Hebrides. As shown the projected increases are in the 1 In 2028, the largest age group is projected to and 2 adult households while decreases are be the 75-79 age group, in comparison to the projected in larger households with the largest 50-54 age group in 2018, highlighting the ageing decrease (-15%) in the 2+ adults plus child(ren) population. households. Average household size continues on a downward trend. From 2018-2028 Projected number of households in Outer Hebrides by household type, 2018 and 2028 6,000 it will decrease by 7% in both Scotland 2018 5,000 Small increases projected in 2028 + 2% households containing one or and the Outer Hebrides. However, two adults 4,000 from 1998 to 2028 it will decrease by + 1% 3,000 Numbers of larger households 15% in the Outer Hebrides and 10% in are projected to fall Number of of Number households 2,000 Scotland. By 2027 it is projected to fall - 15% 1,000 below 2.0 in the Outer Hebrides. - 8% - 8% 0 1 adult 2 adults 1 adult with children 2+ adults with 3+ adults children Year Outer Hebrides Scotland Type of household 1998 2.35 2.31 2008 2.19 2.18 Between 2018 and 2028 increases in households 2018 2.07 2.15 are projected in all but 4 council areas; Outer Hebrides, Argyll & Bute, Inverclyde and North 2028 1.99 2.08 Ayrshire. 2043 1.93 2.00 Page 2 Socio Economic Update No. 43 Small Area Population Estimates Total % Change pop. 2011 to National Records of Scotland published Data zone 2019 2019 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPES) for Eriskay to South Boisdale 466 -12.2 mid-2019 in August 2020. Newton to Plasterfield 743 -11.8 Scotland’s 32 Council areas are made up of Galson to Swainbost 572 -11.7 6,976 data zones. There are 36 data zones in the Outer Hebrides. Most data zones Loch Roag 441 -11.1 contain between 500 and 1,000 people. Habost to Port of Ness 712 -9.8 Uig and Bernera 715 -8.3 Over the last decade 2009 to 2019 population decline has mainly occurred in North Manor Park 610 -7.9 island and rural council areas, and some in Goathill 804 -7.8 the West of Scotland. However, cities tend Coulegrain to Stenish 609 -7.7 to experience increases. Loch Eynort to Iochdar 697 -6.6 The data zone with the highest population Knock to Bayble 791 -6.2 in Scotland is Currie West in Edinburgh Loch Boisdale 591 -5.4 with 3,784 people, as it contains student Sheshader to Tiumpan Head 575 -5.4 accommodation. North Bayhead (Stornoway) 618 -5.2 Over the period 2009 to 2019 the Outer Barvas to Borve 716 -4.9 Hebrides experienced the largest average Pairc and Kinloch 881 -4.8 change in median age in Scotland at 4.1 years while Dundee City had the lowest at Carloway to Shawbost 595 -4.8 -0.1 years. Central Stornoway 836 -4.8 Over this period 94% (34 data zones) South Harris 870 -4.7 became older in terms of median age . West North Uist to Baleshare 690 -4.6 In contrast, 44% in Dundee City became Bragar to Brue 701 -3.8 younger. North Benbecula 787 -3.6 Ruchill in Glasgow has the lowest median Grimsay, East North Uist to Berneray 872 -3.5 age of 20 years, as it contains student Coll to Back 908 -2.7 accommodation for Glasgow University. North Harris and Scalpay 957 -2.5 Over the period 2009-2019, 11 data zones Marybank to Newvalley 1058 -2.1 (31%) in the Outer Hebrides experienced Springfield 606 -1.8 an increase while 25 data zones (69%) Garrabost 789 -1.6 experienced a decrease in population. Vatersay to Castlebay 621 -0.5 Over the last year from 2018 to 2019, the Tong to Upper Coll 1088 -0.2 3 data zones with the highest estimated percentage population increase were: North Barra 660 0.6 South Benbecula 527 1.9 • Melbost to Braighe +5.2% (51) Gress to Tolsta 727 2.0 • Eriskay to South Boisdale +3.3% (15) North Lochs 914 3.9 • Newmarket +2.7% (25) Newmarket 936 4.0 The 3 data zones with the highest estimated Melbost to Braighe 1037 18.5 population increase over the year 2018 to The table above highlights the difference in population 2019 were: change in different data zones. While Melbost to • North Manor Park -5.7% (-37) Braighe has increased by 162 (18.5%) mainly due to increased affordable housing development, Eriskay to • Central Stornoway -4.5% (-39) South Boisdale has decreased by 65(12.2%). It also • Springfield -2.7% (-17) highlights the difference in size, with Loch Roag (441) the smallest and Tong to Upper Coll (1088) the largest. Page 3 Socio Economic Update No. 43 Small Area Data Zone Total pop. % under 16 %16-64 % 65+ Population Vatersay to Castlebay 621 19 57 23 Estimates North Barra 660 19 53 28 Eriskay to South Boisdale 466 12 54 33 The adjacent table Loch Boisdale 591 16 59 25 shows the broad age Loch Eynort to Iochdar 697 19 57 24 groups by data zone for 2019 for each data South Benbecula 527 19 58 24 zone. North Benbecula 787 24 60 16 There are large West North Uist to Baleshare 690 15 55 30 variations within the Grimsay, East North Uist to Berneray 872 11 59 30 Outer Hebrides, with South Harris 870 13 53 34 some data zones North Harris and Scalpay 957 14 57 30 having a much older Pairc and Kinloch 881 15 58 27 profile than others. North Lochs 914 15 58 27 Uig and Bernera Uig and Bernera 715 7 59 33 has the smallest Loch Roag 441 12 55 32 percentage under 16, at 7%, while Melbost Carloway to Shawbost 595 12 62 26 to the Braighe, Tong to Bragar to Brue 701 14 62 24 Upper Coll and North Barvas to Borve 716 15 59 26 Benbecula all have the Galson to Swainbost 572 10 57 33 highest at 24%. Habost to Port of Ness 712 14 54 32 Goathill has the Gress to Tolsta 727 16 56 28 smallest working age Coll to Back 908 17 61 22 population at 51%, while Newmarket has Tong to Upper Coll 1088 24 58 18 the highest at 67%. Newmarket 936 19 67 14 Marybank to Newvalley 1058 17 63 20 Newmarket has the smallest 65+ age North Manor Park 610 20 63 18 group at 14% while North Bayhead (Stornoway) 618 11 63 26 Goathill has the Central Stornoway 836 14 60 26 highest at 36%. Newton to Plasterfield 743 12 59 29 As such, with the data Springfield 606 16 57 27 zone areas varying Goathill 804 14 51 36 so greatly, the island Coulegrain to Stenish 609 14 56 30 areas do too. Melbost to Braighe 1037 24 58 18 The adjacent table Garrabost 789 18 61 21 shows that Barra and Knock to Bayble 791 16 58 26 Vatersay have the highest under 16 age Sheshader to Tiumpan Head 575 15 55 30 group at 19% (Scot. Island Area % Under 16 % 16-64 % 65+ avg. 17%) and Harris Barra & Vatersay 19 55 26 have the greatest South Uist 16 57 27 65+ age group at 32% (Scot.avg.