Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy in Vietnamese Cities: An Explorative Project Initiated and Tested in Hanoi.

Baseline study

Study conducted by: Dr. Do Khac Uan Mr. Ywert Visser

Final report – 03 June 2013 Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 1

Executive Summary Caritas Switzerland in Vietnam (Caritas) is developing the project “Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers (e-bike) and Solar Energy in Vietnamese Cities: An Explorative Project Initiated and Tested in Hanoi” (the project). A baseline study was requested to determine the current status (e.g. usage, perception and awareness) on e-bike among the target demographic of the project (high-school and university students aged 16 to 22). In addition the report provides baseline information on relevant factors such as the government policy on e-bikes, air quality and the status of people with disabilities and poor inhabitants of Hanoi. The same was implemented through implementation of surveys among students and suppliers of e-bikes, interviews and desk research.

Outcome of survey The survey was initially implemented at 3 universities and 2 high schools, but voluntarily students at other high schools and universities participated. Finally the survey was completed by 66% university (mostly 18 to 24 years old) and 34% high school students (mostly 16 to 18 years old). The survey did not find significant differences between high school and university students. The main difference was that high school students tend to use more bicycles and be less aware of social issues, such as environmental pollution. Furthermore, transport expenditure of high school students was mainly decided and paid for by parents, whereas university students often had their own income.

The survey found that most students use a bicycle, but that they tend to use up to 03 modes of transport often (typically a combination of motorbike, bicycle and bus). On average 19% of the students owned more than 1 vehicle, while 51% e-bike users owned another vehicle. Students are most familiar with the electric bicycle and the electric scooter, but 7% of the respondents do not know any type of electric two-wheeler.

Students travel 12.3 km per day or 83.2 km per week on average and spend around 172,000 VND per month on transportation. Their income is 2 million VND on average.

The main motivation for students to buy an e-bike is to save money on transportation, but environmental concerns are also important. Remarkable is the difference in perception of non-e-bike users versus e-bike users. Only 8% of the non-e-bike users said they are planning to buy an e-bike, while 18% said maybe. Most respondents are reluctant to buy an e-bike because they already own another vehicle or they are worried about the quality and the speed of the vehicle or issues with recharging. Interestingly, people that own an e-bike are actually very positive about the performance of the vehicle and do not mention any problem with recharging. This survey result shows that the biggest barrier for non-e-bike users is lack of awareness (e.g. uncertainty due to lack of practical experience with the e-bikes), which could be circumvented with concepts such as renting or trial use of an e-bike.

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The survey also asked students’ opinion on renting. Only 5% of the non-e-bike users was willing to rent an e-bike while 84% said no to renting. The main rationale was that they already owned another vehicle, hence did not see the need to rent another. In addition, many students mentioned that they did not understand the concept of renting an e-bike or how this would work in practice. They mentioned that they were familiar with the concept of renting housing, but did not understand how an e-bike could be rented.

People that use an e-bike generally have used it for more than 1 year (43%), while 38% had used it for less than 12 months. Electric bicycles are most popular (47%), followed by the pedal assist (44%). Yamaha (47%), Honda (19%) and Giant (12%) are the most popular brands, while brands produced in Vietnam are not popular. E-bikes are mostly used for going to school and leisure activities. The actual buyers of e-bikes are parents, aged 45-50.

The profile of the e-bike users that completed the survey is: 66% of them are male, the average age is 17.8 years and 66% of them are high school students. E-bike users are positive about the performance of their bike and 75% said the performance is better than expected at time of purchase. Interestingly, they are most positive about safety while driving, recharging, travel range and finding spare parts. These are the domains where non-e-bike users have most concerns about.

The survey among e-bike suppliers generally supports the findings of the student survey. Interestingly, 50% of the suppliers have been in business for one year only. They mostly sell electric bicycles and pedal assist bicycles. In answer to the question what the government can do to support the sector (e.g. in terms of policy), the biggest obstacle mentioned by the e-bike suppliers is the import tax on e-bikes.

Policy and awareness of policymakers on EE transport modes At this moment, Vietnam has not issued policies in relation to the promotion of e-bikes and conventional bicycles. However, the e-bike promotion and usage is affected indirectly by other policies. The high import tariff (normally 65% or higher) seems to be the biggest policy issue, since most of the e-bikes sold in Vietnam are imported as completely build units from neighboring countries. Although import tax for parts of e- bikes is generally lower than that of a complete build unit, from the survey it could be observed that customers in Vietnam generally prefer the imported models. The import tariff does not only affect the sales of e-bikes, but also leads to the use of low-cost technologies which affect the service level of e-bikes.

Within the overall discussion and regulation of policymakers on the development of the transport in Hanoi city, the proponents of infrastructure development are currently leading. This group is supported by an abundance of data and planning on development of infrastructure for motorbikes and cars and public transport. Meanwhile, little research is done on e-bikes or other forms of energy efficient individual transport. However, from the research already conducted it can be concluded that increased use of e-bikes and bicycles would reduce traffic congestions and air pollution.

The lack of awareness and attention for e-bikes in the current policy debate can also be considered an opportunity for the project of Caritas. The project is the first project in

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Vietnam that will actually involve a technology demonstration component and also contribute to objective research in the field of e-bikes (e.g. through the survey conducted among students).

Power generation and development of solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Vietnam Vietnam has excellent potential for development of renewable energy, including solar PV power. Due to the high share of hydropower in the power generation mix (46%) the carbon intensity of power generation is relative low: 0.5408 ton CO2/MWh. However, with exception of hydropower, the share of renewable energy in the Vietnamese power mix is currently very small.

Within the context of the project, it should be noted that the current feed-in-tariff (FIT) is too low to spark wide spread interest of investors. New policies are being developed to change this situation, but at the moment there is only about 5 MWp installed solar PV power generation capacity in Vietnam.

Transportation and its impact on air quality in Hanoi Rapid growth of cars and motorbikes, (10% and 15% respectively, year-on-year), has had a serious impact on the air quality in Hanoi. Many central districts are exceeding the ambient air quality limits set by the government. The air pollution causes more instances of respiratory infections, especially among children and those in the poorer strata. The air pollution also causes economic losses, with some estimating a loss of 48,000 USD/day in Hanoi. Others estimate that the GDP growth of Vietnam would be reduced by 50% if the environmental losses would be taken into account.

Around 80% of the vehicles on the road in Hanoi are motorbikes. Most of the vehicles do not have modern emission control features.. Hence, increased use of e-bikes has a tremendous beneficial effect on the air quality in Hanoi. When taking into account power generation, CO2 emissions from electric bicycles are only one third of motorcycles. Also particle matter emissions are less than one tenth compared to motorcycles.

Status of poor and disabled people in Hanoi It is estimated that 1.27% of the population of Hanoi is living in poverty. Almost nobody in a poor household has a university education or a white-collar job or owns a business. In Hanoi 7.8% of the population has one or more disability in seeing, hearing, walking or cognition.

The data shows that the living conditions of people with disabilities (PWD) are worse than those without a disability (PWOD). Data indicates that 25.27% of the PWD are poor and the literacy rate among PWD is much lower than PWOD. In addition, unemployment rates among PWD almost 3 times higher than PWOD.

Employment opportunities for PWD under the e-bike project are thus very beneficial to this group, also due to the innovative nature of the project and capacity building component. In relation to engagement of PWD or people from disadvantaged backgrounds, it is recommended to pay special attention to education and vocational training in the initial stages of the project. An example can be to test their suitability for their position at time of recruitment and provide an individual training plan for each staff.

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...... 1 1. Introduction ...... 5 1.1. Background ...... 5 1.2. Objectives of the baseline study ...... 5 2. Outcome of survey among students and suppliers ...... 6 2.1. Introduction and sample methodology ...... 6 2.2. Sample size ...... 6 2.3. Outcome of survey among students ...... 7 2.3.1. Transport modes and behavior of students ...... 7 2.3.2. Attitude and perception of students towards e-bikes ...... 9 2.3.3. Perception of non-e-bike users ...... 11 2.3.4. Experience of students with e-bikes ...... 13 2.4. Outcome of survey among suppliers and manufacturers of e-bikes ...... 17 3. Policy makers’ e-bike awareness and policy framework ...... 21 3.1. Introduction ...... 21 3.2. Policy framework for promoting RE/EE modes of transport...... 21 3.2.1. Cost of transportation ...... 22 3.2.2. Other policies indirectly affecting e-bikes ...... 23 3.3. Policy makers’ awareness, knowledge on e-bikes ...... 23 4. Development of solar PV power in Vietnam ...... 26 4.1. Energy policies affecting solar PV Power development ...... 26 4.2. Solar PV Power development in Vietnam ...... 27 4.3. Carbon Footprint of power generation in Vietnam ...... 28 5. Impact of transportation on air quality in Hanoi ...... 29 5.1. Introduction ...... 29 5.2. Air quality standard in Vietnam ...... 30 5.3. Air quality in Hanoi ...... 31 5.4. The effect of air pollution on people in Hanoi ...... 32 5.5. Effect of e-bikes on the air quality in Hanoi ...... 34 5.6. The cost of air pollution in Hanoi ...... 34 6. Status of poor and disabled people in Hanoi ...... 36 6.1. Poverty in Hanoi ...... 36 6.2. Status of people with disabilities in Hanoi ...... 37 6.3. Inclusion of poor and PWD in the project ...... 38 7. Conclusion and recommendations ...... 40

REFERENCES ...... 44 List of relevant stakeholders ...... 46 Annex 1: copy of the student and manufacturer surveys ...... 48 Annex 2: copy of original surveys in English ...... A-2 Annex 3: copy of the TOR for consultants ...... A-3 Annex 4: copy of the work plan issued by consultants ...... A-4

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1. Introduction

1.1. Background Caritas Switzerland in Vietnam (Caritas) is developing a new project with the title “Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers (e-bike) and Solar Energy in Vietnamese Cities: An Explorative Project Initiated and Tested in Hanoi” (hereafter called the project).

The project aims to promote electric two-wheelers and solar photovoltaic (PV) power using an innovative and entrepreneurial approach. The ultimate goal of the project is to contribute to sustainable development through CO2 neutral power generation (as a result of application of solar PV power technologies) while at the same time supporting viable business activities for the poor and disabled by involving them in the business opportunities created by the project’s electric two-wheeler promotion component.

1.2. Objectives of the baseline study Within the project development cycle of Caritas, the baseline study will act as an initial fact and data gathering tool. This data will then be used in the second step of the development cycle (the development of the feasibility study). In addition, it will be used as a benchmark tool to determine the awareness of stakeholders on the measures that the project is promoting in a pre-project situation.

Through analysis of the scope of work that is defined in the Terms of Reference (“TOR”) of the project, the following main research questions can be distilled that act as the leading objectives of this study:

1. What are the factors that promote (and prevent) usage of e-bikes, in particular among high-school and university students (age 16-22)? 2. What is the current status of student’s awareness, attitude, usage and cost of transport in general and with a focus on e-bikes? 3. What is the effect of transportation and e-bikes on air quality and air pollution in Hanoi? 4. What are current and upcoming policies that may affect e-bikes? 5. What are other stakeholders doing to promote e-bikes? 6. What is the status (e.g. income and employment) of poor and disabled people and how can they benefit from promotion of e-bikes (e.g. job creation)? 7. What are current and upcoming policies on solar energy/renewable energy in Vietnam?

The aforementioned seven questions are answered by application of the following data collection tools:

1. Survey among stakeholders (i.e. students and suppliers/manufacturers); 2. Direct interview with relevant stakeholders (e.g. policy makers, researchers); 3. Desk study of available literature.

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2. Outcome of survey among students and suppliers

2.1. Introduction and sample methodology Based on the requirements of the TOR, the focus of the survey is on high-school and university students in Hanoi, preferably in the age of 16 to 22. For practical matters and control of survey distribution randomly three universities and two high-schools have been selected to implement the survey. However, also students of other high-schools and universities were encouraged and allowed to participate in the survey.

The randomly selected educational institutions are:

 Hanoi University of Science and Technology  National Economics University  Hanoi Foreign Trade University  Chu Van An High School  HUS High School for Gifted Students

The survey was distributed through designated focal points at the universities. The focal points were responsible, for distribution, guide students with the completion of the survey and collect completed surveys.

The focal points were also responsible for initial quality assurance, e.g. they rechecked and reviewed all the questionnaires to ensure accuracy and quality of the data collected. In addition, evaluation meetings between consultant and focal points were held during the implementation of the survey to address any feedback or obstacles in survey implementation.

Data entry was done by the focal points, reviewed by a third party by using different tests, e.g. range tests to ensure accuracy of data. Final review was done by Consultant.

The survey that was distributed among students included questions for both non-e-bike and e-bike users. Through observation at universities it was determined that only a limited number of students were actually using an e-bike. Hence, the possibility existed that only a limited number of actual e-bike users may complete the survey, which would not yield reliable survey outcomes. Therefore, in addition to a survey among students, a survey for manufactures/suppliers/distributors was developed, to specifically gather e- bike market data. The supplier survey was of supplementary nature.

To optimize random sampling, the student survey was implemented in two phases: from 24 April 2013 to 30 April 2013 and from 3 May 2013 to 9 May 2013. The supplier survey was implemented between 24 April 2013 and 5 May 2013.

2.2. Sample size Considering the time and cost limitations, sample size was determined. However, surveyors were encouraged to gather as much surveys as possible.

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At each participating educational institution 30 randomly selected students were asked to complete the survey in each participating education institution. This number was sufficient to provide valid estimates of the desired indicators, thus at 90% confidence level and around confidence interval of 5, a sample of 150 students were interviewed.

The formula used in the sample size determination is given below:

Sample Size = Z2 * (p) * (1-p) ------c2 Where: Z = Z value (1.645 for 90% confidence level) p = percentage picking a choice, expressed as decimal (.5 used for sample size needed) c = confidence interval, expressed as decimal (.05 = ±5)

Due to supplemental nature of manufacturer/supplier/distributor survey, a fixed number of surveys were conducted among this population: the number of surveys distributed was 70 with an anticipated collection of valid surveys of 40.

At the end of the survey, 320 student surveys had been collected and 47 supplier surveys. After scrutinizing the surveys, 297 student surveys and 40 supplier surveys were found to be complete and valid.

2.3. Outcome of survey among students This section describes the results of the survey that was conducted among students. The source of the analysis is 297 surveys, of which high schools (34%) and universities (66%):

Students were handed one survey form that contained 4 pages. These 4 pages included questions for both non-e-bike and e-bike users. A copy of representative surveys can be found in annex 1.

Surveys were received from students at the following organizations:

 Hanoi University of Science and Technology: 25%  National Economics University: 17%  Hanoi Foreign Trade University: 18%  Chu Van An High School: 14%  HUS High School for Gifted Students: 20%  Hanoi of Civil and Engineering, Vietnam University of Commerce, Banking Academy: 6%

2.3.1. Transport modes and behavior of students The survey found that students generally own one vehicle while 19% owned more than one vehicle (a combination of motorbike and bicycle or e-bike was most popular). However, when looking specifically at e-bike owners, it was found that 51% of them owned an additional vehicle. 29% of the surveyed population owned an e-bike.

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Vehicles owned by students

No vehicle 7.7% Other 13.8% Electric Bicycle/Scooter 29.3% Car 3.4% Motorbike 30.6% Bicycle 42.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Figure 2.3.1.1 – vehicle ownership of students

In relation to the e-bike ownership it should be noted that this may not be an accurate indicator of the overall use or ownership of e-bikes among students in general. Surveyors that distributed the surveys to students knew that the survey was conducted in relation to a study on e-bikes. Hence, they may have been inclined to focus on e-bike users.

The survey found that the students may change the mode of transport from time to time. The average number of transportation modes used (most often) was nearly three (2.78). A combination of bus, motorbike and bicycle was most commonly mentioned.

What mode of transport is most often used

Other 1.3% Xe om 5.1% Walking 41.1% Taxi 9.1% Motorbike 53.2% Car 12.8% Electric bicycle/scooter 31.0% Bicycle 67.3% Bus 57.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Figure 2.3.1.2 – modes of transport most often used by students

Most of students still use bicycle for their transport. This could be due to the fact that they lived near to their school/university. Besides, high school students are not old enough to use the motorbike. In addition, walking was also a conventional modes as it very convenient for students living in dormitory of very near by their schools. It should be noted that the number of students using e-bike (31%) is higher than the number of students owning e-bike, which could be explained as some time they borrowed from friends of from their family members.

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Since the transport of students was not fixed, sometimes they can choose another mode, such as by taxi, motorbike taxi or even by car. However, this portion was not much compared with other transportation modes.

The surveyed students typically make 2 (33%) or 4 (31%) trips per day with their vehicles. The average distance traveled is 12.3 km per day or 83.2 km per week. On average students spent 172,649 Vietnam Dong per month on transportation, and the figure of 100,000 VND/month was most frequently mentioned.

Only 6% (20) of the students completed the question regarding their monthly income. The average income is 2 million VND/month.

2.3.2. Attitude and perception of students towards e-bikes In the first part of the survey, both e-bike users and non-e-bike users were asked about their awareness, attitude and perception towards e-bikes.

The respondents were most familiar with the electric bicycle, which was indicated 41% of the times. Additionally, electric scooters and pedelecs were also commonly known. Only 7% did not know any of the electric two-wheelers mentioned in the survey.

Which electric two-wheelers do you know?

Electric bicycle 7% 6% Electric scooter 19% 41% Pedal assist bicycle

27% Conversion kit

Figure 2.3.1.3 – student awareness of electric two-wheeler types

Through a series of statements, the respondents were questioned what would the main motivation for them to buy or use an e-bike. This question was also intended to gauge the impact of government policies and perception of students. Since the question allowed participants to make multiple choices, the below chart shows the number of instances a particular statement was selected:

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Main motivation to purchase an e-bike

Other reasons 4 It saves time traveling 3 To avoid traffic jams 7 Ease to park/store 13 It is silent / noiseless 38 Protect the environment 48 Government restricts car/motorbike use 3 I am not old enough to drive a motorbike 6 If government announces a tax on… 2 I like the design / colours of e-bikes 2 To impress friends and family 4 It is easier to drive than a motorbike 15 Save money on transportation 55 An increase in fuel price 46 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Number of times mentioned

Figure 2.3.1.3 – motivation to buy an e-bike

Interestingly the main motivation of students was related to the cost of transportation, whereas a government policy (e.g. tax on the use of motorbikes) was not a strong motivation. This is an interesting finding, since studies on the effect of policies (e.g. taxes) are known to have an important impact on people’s buying decisions (this is further elaborated in chapter 3). In addition, environmental aspects were also appealing to the respondents.

To determine the rationale for students to not use an e-bike, students were asked to identify the reasons why they would not want to use an e-bike.

Main motivation not to use an e-bike

Other 15 It lacks features that my current vehicle has 18 Difficulty to recharge 34 I do not feel safe when driving it 13 Negative comments from friends and family 5 None of my friends have an e-bike 7 It is too slow 51 It is not suitable to carry multiple people 27 I do not like to wear a helmet 16 I do not like the design of e-bikes 14 Already have another type of transportation 63 Bad experience previously 11 Quality concerns 52 The range it can travel is too short 34 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Number of times mentioned

Figure 2.3.1.4 – motivation not to buy an e-bike

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The most important reason was the ownership of another vehicle, followed by quality concerns. Interestingly, respondents mentioned also speed as an important factor, although research shows that the average speed in Hanoi is only 20 km/hour. In addition, features and operational concerns (travel range, recharging) were very important.

Interestingly perception questions, such as the design and impression of others were not very important aspects in the buying decision.

2.3.3. Perception of non-e-bike users After collecting initial data on the transportation modes, travel behavior and perception towards e-bikes of students, the survey had specific questions for people that were using e-bikes and people that were not yet using e-bikes.

The questions in this section were specifically directed to people that did not use an e- bike yet.

The majority of people said they are not planning to use an e-bike, although 18% was considering it. Most respondents are reluctant to buy an e-bike because they already own another vehicle or they are worried about the quality and the speed of the vehicle or issues with recharging. Interestingly, people that own an e-bike are actually very positive about the performance of the vehicle and do not mention any problem with recharging.

Do you plan to use an e-bike? Maybe Yes 18% 8%

No 74%

Figure 2.3.3.1 – plan to use an e-bike

This survey result shows that the biggest barrier for non-e-bike users is lack of awareness (e.g. uncertainty due to lack of practical experience with the e-bikes), which could be circumvented with concepts such as renting or trial use of an e-bike.

The eight percent of students that were planning to use an e-bike were asked who would pay for the e-bike.

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Who would pay for the e-bike? Other Employer 5% 2%

Myself 32% Parents 61%

Figure 2.3.3.2 – plan to use an e-bike

Most of the time the e-bike would be paid by the parents, although a third of the students indicated that they would buy it themselves.

Respondents were also asked if they would be willing to rent an e-bike, without further clarifying the renting scheme. Only 5% said they would, while 11% said maybe. The main rationale was that they already owned another vehicle, hence did not see the need to rent another. In addition, many students mentioned that they did not understand the concept of renting an e-bike or how this would work in practice. They mentioned that they were familiar with the concept of renting housing, but did not understand how an e- bike could be rented.

Opinion on renting an e-bike Maybe Yes 11% 5%

No 84%

Figure 2.3.3.3 – opinion on renting an e-bike

Given above response, not many people (only 20) completed the question regarding the amount of money they would pay to rent the e-bike. The average fee mentioned was 110,000 VND, whereas the value of 50,000 VND/month was most frequently mentioned (6 times).

Non-e-bike users that consider buying an e-bike are mostly choosing an electric bicycle. However, the majority of this group is not sure yet what model they are going to use.

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What e-bike type will you choose?

Electric bicycle Electric scooter 40% 43% Pedal assist bicycle Conversion kit 2% 10% Not decided yet 5% Figure 2.3.3.4 – type of e-bike considered

The question which e-bike the users definitely did not want to use was left mostly unanswered. Thi is understandable given the large amount of respondents that did not decide yet on the type of e-bike to use.

2.3.4. Experience of students with e-bikes The survey was designed as one version with questions for both non-e-bike and e-bike users. In case the respondent owned or used an e-bike, he or she was directed to a specific set of question.

The profile of the e-bike users that completed the survey is: 66% of them are male, the average age is 17.8 years and 66% of them are high school students. Interestingly, most e-bike users have been using the vehicle for more than 1 year, while the 38% has used an e-bike for more than 6 months.

Length of e-bike usage 0– 3 months 11% 3 – 6 months 8% Longer than 1 year 43% 6 – 12 months 38%

Figure 2.3.3.5 – length of e-bike usage

We also asked them through an open question, why they started using an e-bike. Although this was an open question, most of the time the students referred to the low operating cost of e-bikes. They had bought it due to an increase in fuel price or because it reduced their overall cost of transportation. Secondly, environmental aspects were mentioned, while a few people also mentioned that an e-bike was saver to drive than a motorbike.

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Students most frequently used an electric bicycle. Interestingly, they also use pedal assist bicycles much.

Type of electric two-wheeler used

Pedal assist electric 44% bicycle 47%

electric scooter 9%

Figure 2.3.3.6 – type of electric two-wheeler actually used

No student had used a conversion kit to convert their existing bicycle into a pedelec.

Through an open question, students were asked what the brand of the vehicle was. Half of the respondent mentioned that they were using a Yamaha two-wheeler.

Brand of electric two-wheeler used

Other brands 22% Yamaha Honda 47% 19%

Giant 12%

Figure 2.3.3.7 – brand of electric two-wheeler actually used

Interestingly, users of Yamaha were able to remember the exact model of their e-bike much better than competitive brands. In particular the Yamaha model CGF, N2 and H3 were frequently mentioned. Users of Honda, Giant and other brands frequently did not remember their model.

Based on the above information, e-bike users prefer to use e-bikes that have an association with Japanese brands. Figure 2.3.3.8 - The Yamaha H3

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Information obtained from the survey indicates that e-bikes produced in Vietnam are not popular. Brands that are produced in Vietnam, such as Hitasa and Asama were only mentioned in a few instances.

The e-bike primarily displaces the use of walking, bus and bicycle transportation. E-bike users previously frequently used a mix of walking, bicycle and bus or a mix of bicycle, walking and motorbike.

Modes of transport used before the e-bike

Other 1 Xe om 6 Taxi 3 Electric Bicycle/Scooter 3 Walking 44 Car 0 Motorbike 31 Bicycle 46 Bus 47 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Number of times mentioned

Figure 2.3.3.9 – modes of transport used before the e-bike

Not surprisingly, students use their e-bike mostly to go to school but also for leisure activities:

Usage of the e-bike

All kinds of trips 37 Pick up someone 9 Leisure 17 Shopping / go to market 5 Travel to work 13 Travel to school/university 28 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Number of times mentioned

Figure 2.3.3.10 – usage of e-bike

With respect to the actual buyer of the e-bike, the e-bikes of students are most frequently financed by their parents. Only 6% pays for the e-bike by themselves.

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Other Buyer of the e-bike 5% Myself Employer 6% 0%

Parents 89%

Figure 2.3.3.11 – the actual buyer of the e-bike

Interestingly, most e-bike users say that the performance of the e-bike is better than the seller told them during the selling process.

Is the performance of the e-bike better than the seller told you?

Not sure No 22% 3% Yes 75%

Figure 2.3.3.12 – opinion on the performance of the e-bike

However, this may also have to do with the fact that only a few of the students actually pay for the vehicle. Hence, they may be less critical towards the performance of the e- bike.

In relation to the performance of the e-bike, students generally indicate that their e-bike has a range of 45 km per charge, while nearly 50% of the respondents indicate that their vehicle has a range of 50 km per charge. The average recharge time that the students indicate is nearly 6 hours. All e-bike users recharge their e-bike at home and did not mention any difficulty doing so.

At the end of the survey, we asked the students to rate their e-bike user experience across a number of domains.

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Satisfaction of e-bike users across various domains

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Very satisfied 20% Satisfied 10% 0% Neutral

Not satisfied Number oftimes mentioned Very unsatisfied

Figure 2.3.3.13 – satisfaction with the e-bike

In general e-bike users are satisfied with their vehicle, or have a neutral opinion. Only the battery life, speed and quality aspects have a higher percentage of “not satisfied” scores. Interesting finding is that the users do not seem to mind to wear a helmet, even though suppliers indicate that the helmet wearing requirement has affected their business in a negative way.

2.4. Outcome of survey among suppliers and manufacturers of e-bikes The survey among suppliers and manufacturers yielded 40 valid surveys.

Most of the companies interviewed, are suppliers of e-bikes that sell their bikes through shops located in the streets of Hanoi. Most sellers indicate that they saw positive signs towards the development of the e-bike market, in particular the need for e-bikes from students. Some retailers also mentioned going into the business for environmental reasons or because they observed issues that impacted demand of e-bikes, such as an increased fuel price.

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How long has the e-bike supplier been in business No answer > 3 years 5% 13%

3 years 7% 1 year 50% 2 years 25%

Figure 2.4.1 – how long has e-bike supplier been in business

Interestingly, the number of firms that have been in the business of selling e-bikes for one year is very large.

Types of e-bikes sold

Conversion kit 3 Pedal assist bicycle 13 Electric scooter 11 Electric bicycle 39 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Number of times mentioned

Figure 2.4.2 – types of e-bike sold

Most e-bike retailers sell electric bicycles, although one retailer did not answer this question. Pedelecs are also often sold. This is similar to the distribution of the e-bike types used by students as indicated in the student survey.

Only 50% of the e-bike sellers also sell spare parts. Mostly they sell batteries and recharge services (such as battery maintenance, recharging, selling new chargers and cables).

Less than half of the respondents provided figures about the sales of e-bikes in the previous three years. The numbers vary greatly, but it can be observed that most of the shops only sell a few e-bikes per week. Half of the respondents answered that they only sell 5 or less e-bikes per week. Only 33% of the respondents that answered this question sold 10 or more e-bikes per week.

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 19

The reasons why people buy e-bikes from the perspective of suppliers are matching with the answers that were earlier provided by the students.

Motivation for purchase of e-bike from supplier perspective

Other reason 3 saves time traveling 1 avoid traffic jams 1 Ease to park/store 4 silent / noiseless 1 Protect the environment 16 give as gift 7 government announcement on new tax 0 not old enough to use a motorbike 18 design / colours of e-bikes 0 impress friends and family 2 easier to drive than a motorbike 11 Save money on transportation 24 increase in fuel price 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Number of times mentioned

Figure 2.4.3 – motivation of customers to buy an e-bike

The main reason why people buy e-bikes from the perspective of suppliers is the lower operating cost aspect. In addition, environmental concerns and not being allowed to drive a motorbike are important factors. Other reasons for buying were “no need to wear a helmet” which indicates that e-bike suppliers are not aware of current regulations or wrongly inform their buyers. There is a legal requirement to wear a helmet on a e-bike, although it is not strictly enforced yet among e-bike users (refer to chapter 3).

The typical e-bike buyers are males and females between 45 and 50 years of age, that buy the vehicle for their child. This is consistent with the answers on age of the e-bike above: Most of the time, these are up to 19 years old.

Age of e-bike users

60 years or older None 30-39 years Some Many Up to 19 years Very much 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Figure 2.4.4 – age of e-bike users

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 20

The suppliers were asked about the intended usage of the e-bike, by the future owners.

Usage of e-bike from supplier perspective

All kinds of trips 13 Pick up someone 0 Leisure / sport 15 Shopping / go to market 20 Travel to work 6 Travel to school/university 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 Number of times mentioned

Figure 2.4.4 – usage of e-bike by customers

The results confirm the results that were observed in the student survey, with going to school or leisure as most frequent usage. Interestingly, the e-bikes are hardly used to travel to work, according to suppliers.

Regarding performance, the suppliers mentioned that 40% of the buyers require a range of up to 40 km/recharge, while another 40% requires a range of up to 50 km/recharge. The remaining 20% required a range of more than 50 km/recharge.

Interestingly, many e-bike suppliers did not know exactly the type of batteries the e-bikes they sold were using. However, lead-acid batteries were most common (55%), followed by lithium-ion (37%).It should be noted that given the observed lack of knowhow among e-bike sellers on the technical features of e-bikes, it is uncertain if the question on battery types yielded reliable results.

In relation to market development, approximately half of the e-bike suppliers had a positive impression about the future market, indicating growth or substantial growth. However, about 40% was not sure or provided no answer.

In answer to the question what the government can do to support the sector (e.g. in terms of policy), the biggest obstacle mentioned by the e-bike suppliers is the import tax on e-bikes (this is further elaborated in chapter 3). While answering the question how e- bike usage could be promoted, the sellers also referred to tax policies, and tax reduction. Besides, a minor amount of respondents advised policies that affect motorbikes, such as increased tax on motorbikes or motorbike use restriction policies.

Suppliers often referred to the speed and price as barriers towards the usage of e-bikes from a user perspective.

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 21

3. Policy makers’ awareness, knowledge and policy framework for promoting RE/EE mode of transport and particularly e-bikes

3.1. Introduction Hanoi city is experiencing rapid urbanization and population growth under the background of significant economic development. This has led to an increased pressure on the city’s transportation system, causing a deteriorating effect on air quality, traffic safety and an increase in serious traffic congestion.

To address these issues, the Government of Vietnam (GoV) is progressively looking for alternative transportation solutions to create an efficient and clean transportation network. In the Hanoi Master Plan to 2030 and vision to 2050 an important role is attributed to energy efficient forms of transport, including the use of Bus Rapid Transit and metro line systems.

This report, however, limits the scope of research to policies that affect the transportation mode that people are using and may affect e-bikes. The below assessment takes into account policies developed and implemented since approximately 2008, when the transportation arena started to get affected by important new policies (traffic safety laws) and increased fuel prices. In addition, it takes into account policies that are announced, provided that sufficient details on their implementation status are available.

While implementing the study on policy makers a great lack of awareness on e-bikes was observed, which is further elaborated below. Hence, no policymakers could be identified that specifically worked on the topic of e-bike. As a result, the below assessment was mainly the result of desk study and brief interactions with stakeholders, rather than in-depth interviews.

3.2. Policy framework for promoting RE/EE modes of transport The effect of government policies in relation to the promotion of e-bikes is evidenced by the uptake of e-bikes in China. China has seen explosive growth in the sales of electric bikes since 1998. The boom was triggered by Chinese local governments' efforts to restrict motorcycles in city centers. China's annual sales of electric two-wheeled vehicles (bikes and scooters) grew exponentially from fifty six thousand vehicles in 1998 to over twenty one million in 2008 (Yang, 2010). It should be noted that the e-bike development in China was the effect of loose enforcement of electric bike standards, rather than of conscious decisions to support electric transportation.

Similar to the situation in China, e-bike sales and usage in Vietnam is also indirectly affected by policies, mainly those that affect the cost and convenience of transportation. At this moment, Vietnam has not issued policies in relation to the promotion of e-bikes

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 22 and conventional bicycles. However, the government does monitor the e-bike market through established policies that are applicable to this type of vehicle.1

A survey conducted in Hanoi on this topic (Jones, 2012) showed that the surveyed population was more susceptible to policy changes (e.g. new fees on use of motorbikes, less fees for e-bikes) than it was to other aspects of the e-bike (e.g. sales price, technical features).

3.2.1. Cost of transportation In the survey that was conducted among manufacturers and suppliers of e-bikes, import taxes and import tariffs were often referred as an obstacle or concern. This is understandable, since at present there are no preferential tariffs for electric bicycles and scooters or pedal assist bicycles (pedelecs).

The import duties of e-bikes are currently regulated through circular No. 157/2011/TT- BTC dated 14/11/2011 that was issued by the Ministry of Finance. This circular refers to the Harmonized Systems Code 87.11 for motorcycles and cycles fitted with an auxiliary motor.

Depending on the capacity of the motor, the import tariff for electric bicycles and scooters is currently between 65% and 70% when the e-bikes are produced in countries that are member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). E-bikes produced in non-WTO member states are subject to an import duty of 97.5% to 105%. In some cases preferential tariffs may apply, e.g. in case the e-bike is produced in countries that are member of the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) an import tariff of 45% applies. However, in the latter case additional documents to substantiate the origin of the vehicles are required to be submitted. Parts of e-bikes may fall in lower import tariff groups, but due to the wide variety of available components the precise amount of tax varies greatly.

Besides the above import duties, a 10% Value Added Tax rate applies during the sale of the vehicle.

Users, manufacturers and suppliers also mentioned proposed changes in the fees, which are often referred to as “road tax”. Historically vehicle owners did not have to pay a separate tax for ownership of a vehicle. Fees were paid only one time, when purchasing and registering the vehicle and indirectly through a fee levied on each liter of fuel sold.

From 2011 the government has increasingly emphasizes on the collection of separate taxes (e.g. through decree no. Decree No. 18/2012/ND-CP). The media reported about

1 Vietnamnet News, “Electric bicycle fraud surging, merchant inspections reveal”, retrieved 14/05/2013: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/society/73445/electric-bicycle- fraud-surging--merchant-inspections-reveal.html

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 23 these taxes with eye-catching headlines such as “Road tax: over $600/year on cars”2 and that implementation of the measures was imminent. These media announcements often spark a strong interest in alternative transportation modes such as e-bikes.

The regulation came into effect on 1 January 2013 and includes a fee for cars and motorbikes. However, at this moment only the collection of the road tax for cars is enforced. Cars are required to undergo a period emission and road safety inspection. At that inspection, the road tax is also paid. Motorbikes currently do not have to undergo a periodic inspection (also refer to chapter 5), hence the collection mechanism is not finalized.

However, as described in chapter 5, regulation is being prepared to also require periodic inspection of motorbikes. This policy, in combination with the road tax is expected to have a strong impact on the demand of e-bikes.

3.2.2. Other policies indirectly affecting e-bikes Mandatory helmet wearing legislation (Regulation 32) that was enforced since 15 December 2007 sparked an in the popularity of e-bikes. The regulation initially did not consider e-bike users; hence people that did not want to wear a helmet switched to e- bikes instead. However, this loophole was closed in 2008. Feedback given in our manufacturer survey suggests that this caused a decline in the sales of e-bikes.

Since the legislation did not prescribe fines for children that weren’t wearing helmets, the e-bikes remained popular among children. This additional loophole was closed in a decree issued in 2010 (no. 34) which also requires children aged 6 and up to wear helmets. This new decree is progressively enforced more strictly3.

The current programs on energy efficiency do not specifically affect e-bikes or individual transport, as most of the activities under for example the Vietnam National Energy Efficiency Program (VNEEP) for the period 2005-2015 or Law on Energy Saving and Efficiency currently focus mainly on industry in general, major industrial energy consumers and household energy efficiency (e.g. through CFL light promotion) (World Bank 2010).

3.3. Policy makers’ awareness, knowledge on e-bikes Within the space awareness on e-bikes and the effect of these vehicles on improvements of air quality and general livability of the city it is observed that there

2 Vietnamnet News, “'Road tax': Over $600/year on cars”, retrieved 14/05/2013: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/society/51388/-road-tax---over--600-year-on-cars.html

3 VNMedia, “Today people riding electric bicycle without helmet will be fined”, retrieved 16/05/2013: http://www.vnmedia.vn/VN/xa-hoi/tin- tuc/23_829863/hom_nay_phat_nguoi_di_xe_dap_dien_khong_doi_mu_bao_hiem.html

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 24 currently is no common approach provided by the local government and other actors in this field (Tuyet 2012, Khuat 2009). In fact, two groups can be distinguished. Policymakers are the local government but also the relevant academia and institutes that support and influence policymakers through research and other input.

Firstly there are policymakers that focus on infrastructure development and implementation of modern methods of transport (Metro, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems). Secondly there are policymakers that focus on the livability in the city, environmental impacts and actors that research transportation modes and flows.

Within the first group, some actors are of the opinion that deployment of bicycles and e- bikes would be inefficient use of road space and may intervene with further development of infrastructure. They fear that capital used to develop infrastructure (e.g. special bicycle lanes, recharge and storage areas areas) would defer much needed capital for other projects. In addition, they fear that it may negatively affect the traffic flow of other road participants (e.g. due to lower speed of e-bikes and bicycles)4. Within this group, some actors seem to have a negative perception towards bicycles and e-bikes and are of the opinion that transportation development should focus on modern ways of transport, such as the Bus Rapid Transit, Metro lines and other forms of public transport.

Figure 3.3 - Ongoing construction of the Cat Linh – Ha Dong elevated railway system. This section intersects with the elevated Ring Road 3 urban expressway that was opened in 2012.

4 VietnamNet News, “Bicycles will help reduce pollution, but will make traffic jam more serious” retrieved 16/05/2013: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/environment/72129/bicycles-will-help-reduce-pollution-- but-will-make-traffic-jam-more-serious.html

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 25

The second group includes academia that study traffic flows and urban transport in other metropolitans and developed countries. They are in favor of e-bikes and bicycles and refer to research that indicates benefits of using these forms of transport 5 . They particular favor e-bikes and bicycles for short trips (up to 5 kilometers) citing health, air pollution (both noise and particular matter) and to ease congestions in the city) (Khuat, 2009).

Another general observation is the focus on motorbikes, cars, trucks and development of public transport among policymakers and master plan6 for the city of Hanoi. Other forms of transport play a relative insignificant role in the current discussion on development of transportation in Hanoi city, indicating a lack of awareness about the benefits of these forms of transport.

The lack of awareness appears to originate from two main causes. The main reason is the absolute number of car and motorbike users. Due to the importance of car and motorbikes in the overall transportation mix of Hanoi, this group is able to influence policymakers to invest in measures to easy traffic congestions. An additional benefit is the large amount of research and planning that is available to support infrastructure development and decision making for conventional vehicles. The smaller group of e- bike and bicycle users in combination with actors that focus on the environmental impact are a relatively small group and supported by a limited amount of research (Nguyen, 2010).

Presently there is research available on the effects of e-bikes and bicycles on traffic flow patterns and its environmental impact. However, research on user perception, rationale for transportation mode switch is extremely limited, with only a few studies conducted.

5VietnamNet News, “US$45,000 can help reduce congestion in Hanoi by bikes?” retrieved 16/05/2013: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/society/72286/us-45-000-can- help-reduce-congestion-in-hanoi-by-bikes-.html 6 Perkins Eastman, “Hanoi Capital Construction Master Plan to 2030...”, retrieved 16/05/2013: http://perkinseastman.com/project_3407114_hanoi_capital

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4. Development of solar PV power in Vietnam

4.1. Energy policies affecting solar PV Power development Vietnam has an abundance of renewable energy resources throughout the country, including hydro, wind, solar, biomass and biogas. However, historically, energy policies in Vietnam have focused on socio-economic development. This has led to predominantly low-cost power generation using fossil fuel based thermal power and hydropower. Apart from hydropower, the current grid connected renewable energy generation involves biomass (bagasse from sugar plants) and some grid connected wind farms.

The main obstacle for the development of the grid connected renewable energy, including solar, in Vietnam is the current low feed-in tariffs for electricity. The present feed-in tariff for power generators is typically lower than 1,050 VND/kWh (0.05 US Dollar). The feed-in tariff has not incentivized development of renewable power generation, for which some investors require a feed-in tariff in excess of 2,000 VND/kWh (0.10 US Dollar) for an acceptable ROI.

In recent years the Government has been strongly promoting the development of renewable energy as a way to overcome power shortage and diversify power generation. In addition, the government is working on creating a more competitive power market. Power prices have been adjusted upwards more frequently, since the issuance of the prime minister’s Decision 24/2011 on power price adjustment in line with market changes. The current Power Development Master Plan VII (Decision No. 1208/QĐ-TTg dated July 21, 2011) has set a target of 4.5% renewables by the year 2020.

In addition, the Viet Nam Green Growth Strategy was approved by the Prime Minister in September 2012. This strategy defines a reduction of 8-10% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions before the year 2020, compared to the baseline of 2010. In addition, the Strategy strongly promotes the use of renewable resources such as solar energy.

This policy shift is partly due to observed constraints in the current power generation mix (e.g. fuel availability of coal power plants, and the environmental impact and potential unavailability due to droughts of hydropower plants). Another aspect is the fact that the economic growth has led to an enormous increase in the power demand. One percent of GDP growth in Vietnam causes a 2% increase in power demand.

The Government of Vietnam has had different policies to encourage the development of renewable energy, establish the targets for renewable energy production and move toward a competitive energy market with diverse investment and business models. In Decision No. 1855/QĐ-TTg dated December 27, 2007 approving the National Energy Development Strategy of Vietnam for the period up to 2020 with outlook to 2050 the Government encourages the development and use of new and renewable energy sources; provides financial support for the investigation, research, trial manufacture and establishment of pilot locations; and exempts for the import, production and circulation taxes.

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In order to achieve these targets, the Government has provided various incentives to investors. Renewable energy power plants will receive incentives for investment, electricity tariffs and taxes. Investors can enjoy advantages such as import tax exemption and land fee exemption over a certain period of time, such as those defined in the Joint Circular 58/2008/TTLT-BTC-BTN&MT dated 4 July 2008 the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE). The existing incentives however are not sufficient yet to create the appropriate conditions for planning and implementing numerous renewable projects as well as the sale of renewable energy products in Vietnam. These incentives are beneficial to small hydropower projects only and not to other forms of renewable energy.

4.2. Solar PV Power development in Vietnam Vietnam has a well-recognized potential for development of solar energy. Solar irradiation conditions in the south and in the center of the country are good with values of 4.0 to 5.9 kWh/m2 per day, while the north has high seasonal variations (2.4 to 5.6 kWh/m2 per day) (Dung, 2009). The amount of sunshine hours is between 1,800 and 2,700 per year.

Vietnam has currently one manufacturer of solar PV panels. The company Red Sun Energy Joint Stock Company has a factory in Long An Province and, according to its website, is currently able to produce 12 MWp of solar panels per year. Besides, Vietnamese industry is able to produce the needed additional hardware, such as inverters, controllers and batteries. The current price for Solar PV modules in Vietnam is 4 to 5 USD/Wp or 8,000-9,000 USD/kWp for one PV system of Vietnamese origin (Thong, 2012). This is relatively expensive, compared to products sold in China, Europe and the European Union, where the price is generally less than 3 USD/Wp.

Installed Solar PV power generation capacity in Vietnam is currently estimated at 5 MWp. The main cause for the low penetration is the low feed-in tariff of electricity, and in turn, the low purchase price of electricity for consumers. Presently most of the larger solar PV projects are installed as demonstration projects at enterprises and government agencies in Vietnam. The largest solar PV power projects in Vietnam are currently installed by supermarket chain BigC in Binh Duong (212 kWp) and at a plant of Intel Corporation (200 kWp). Besides these larger projects, small-scale solar PV power generation at off-grid locations exists and is also used for navigation beacons, communication equipment etc.

Due to the geographical conditions of Vietnam, the current grid is available in most of the localities. Localities that are currently not grid connected are often isolated or island communities. In the latest Power Development Plan, the government has set a target of 100% rural electrification by 2020 (currently 95%). The government has acknowledged the importance of renewable resources, including solar and wind power generation to reach the target of 100% rural electrification. However, besides the overall policies to promote renewable energy, the Vietnamese government has currently no specific policies to incentivize solar PV Power.

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The low penetration of solar PV power and the lack of current policies for promotion of the same generate a strong case for additional capacity building on the benefits of this form of power generation. The Vietnamese power market has traditionally relied on technologies that it is most familiar with, including hydro and thermal power generation. Additional capacity building among stakeholders and demonstration projects may inspire policy makers to further strengthen the development framework for solar PV power given the many advantages of solar PV power modules. In the context of Vietnam, Solar PV power generation provides a reliable technology for rural electrification, with zero air emissions and a system that is easily serviceable and is domestically produced. Furthermore, the promotion of Solar PV Power fits in the Green Growth Strategy that was approved by the Vietnamese government.

The current feed-in-tariff for power generators and subsequently the low purchase price of electricity for consumers should be taken into account in the feasibility study of this project.

4.3. Carbon Footprint of power generation in Vietnam Vietnam has one electricity grid, the Vietnam National Power Grid. This grid distributes electricity throughout all provinces of Vietnam. Electricity in Vietnam is predominantly generated by gas (34%), coal (15%) and hydropower (46%). Oil and diesel powered generation and other sources make up the remaining 5% (EVN 2011).

The carbon emission factor from power generation in Vietnam is periodically calculated by the Vietnamese Designated National Authority (DNA) of the UNFCCC, under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. The calculation of the emission factor is done in accordance with the relevant tools that are published by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The latest figures have been approved by the Vietnam DNA on 05/03/2012. The latest calculation shows that the emission factor currently is: 0.5408 ton CO2/MWh.

When comparing emissions of e-bikes it should be noted that only direct carbon dioxide emission data is available of the power generation in the national power grid. Emission data of other pollutants emitted, e.g. NOx, SO2 from thermal power plants are not available. To estimate these emission sources, it is suggested to refer to credible international emission inventory data. Also refer to paragraph 5.5 for more information on this approach.

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5. Impact of transportation on air quality in Hanoi

5.1. Introduction Hanoi is a densely populated city with an estimated population of 6.9 million inhabitants in 2010 (HSO, 2010), with an annual growth rate of 3.5%. Approximately 41% of the population is living in the urban areas. However, the actual number of inhabitants is much higher than that, due to people migrating to the city without officially registering as residents (migrants are estimated to make up 11.4% of the total population in Hanoi).

Population growth, combined with sustained economic development has caused rapid increase in the number of motorbikes and cars on the roads in Hanoi. Of all vehicles, growth of the number of motorcycles is the greatest. In Vietnam, the number of motorbikes increased 400% between 1996 and 2006. The number of motor vehicles in Hanoi is continuously increasing every year at a rate of 10% for cars and 15% for motorbike.

Figure 5.1 – number of motorcycles in Hanoi and HCMC between 1994 and 2011. Source: GSO, 2012

Motorcycles are the default mode of transport and account for 80% of all vehicles used in Hanoi. In fact, motorcycles are used to commute from work, transport a whole family and transport goods, even on relatively short trips.

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 30

2002 2010

Public 1% Public 6% Busses 2% Busses Other busses 2% Other busses 0% 9% 8% 9% Minivan 8% Minivan 5% Bicycles Bicycles 72% 78% Cars Cars

Motorbike Motorbike

Figure 5.1.1 – Transport mode usage in a representative street in Hanoi, in 2002 and 2010, source: TRAMOC 2011

In 2011, inhabitants of Hanoi owned approximate 3.65 million motorbikes (GSO 2012), which is predicted to grow to 6.8 million motorbikes in the year 2020.

5.2. Air quality standard in Vietnam Vietnam has air quality standards. Ambient air quality pollution limits are defined in Vietnamese standard TCVN 5937-2005 (ambient air quality standard). The table below provides the values (µg/m3) in Vietnam, in comparison with the emission standard in the European Union (EU) and the limit promoted by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Parameter Vietnam WHO EU BNZ 10 -- 5 NO2 40 40 40 SO2 50 20 20 PM10 50 20 40

Table 5.2 – Air quality standard limits (µg/m3) in Vietnam and as defined by the EU and WHO.

To comply with the above shown limit, all new motorcycles sold in Vietnam after 2007 have to meet the EURO-2 standard. However, field tests show that more than 53% (Oanh, 2008) of the motorcycles in Vietnam do not meet the EURO-2 standard. More than 93% of the motorcycles used in Hanoi have 4-stroke engines, but only 6% have advanced emission control technologies. In addition, due to the high traffic density and congestions in Hanoi vehicles commonly drive at low speeds (15-20 km/h) with frequent acceleration and breaking.

Currently Vietnam does not mandate period inspection of motorcycles. The government has announced period emission inspection of motorcycles in Hanoi and HCMC to commence in 2013. However detailed implementation guidelines have not been issued to the public yet.

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 31

5.3. Air quality in Hanoi Currently 6 air quality monitoring stations exist in Hanoi, of which 3 are used to provide data to the public. However, these centralized monitoring stations have only limited coverage and are not specifically focused on monitoring emissions from transportation. In addition, since the data is collected by various agencies underlying measurement parameters such as measurement frequency, and pollutants measured vary. There is no central coordinating agency for validation of the monitoring information.

To mitigate these limitations, this report applies the conservative approach by referring to the outcome of a compressive study that was conducted under the Swiss-Vietnamese Clean Air Program (SVCAP). A sub-component of the project involved passive sampling stations at more than 100 different sites in Hanoi, thus providing an accurate data set of measurement under various conditions (road side, industry, urban, rural etc).

In Hanoi, air pollution7 is caused by transportation, industrial and domestic activities (e.g. cooking on biomass or coal, burning of waste) (NEA Vietnam, 2009). Transport is the main contributor to air pollution in Hanoi. It has been estimated that 70-75% of PM10,

SO2 , NOX, and CO air pollutants originate from transportation (Hoang, 2004; Son D.H, 2008). Transportation emissions originate mainly from the use of motorcycles.

The table below shows the results of measurement campaigns using passing sampling methods in January and February 2007 (unit is (µg/m3):

Location NO2 SO2 BNZ Traffic hot spots 64.3 47.4 14.1 Road side 47.9 38.8 13.3 Industrial areas 34.7 46.1 7.3 Urban area 29.0 25.9 7.4 Rural area 21.3 22.6 6.9 TCVN 5937:2005 40 50 10

Figure 5.3 – results of the measurement campaign conducted by SVCAP (Unit: (µg/m3)

The table clearly shows the increased pollution levels at traffic hot spots and road sides.

Within Hanoi, pollution levels are highest in the Hoan Kiem and Hai Ba Trung Districts, which also exceed Vietnamese national standard limits for all listed pollutants:

7 In this report, air pollution follows the definition of the US EPA, which defines air pollution as the degradation of air quality resulting from unwanted chemicals or other materials, which are higher than its own natural concentration, occurring in the atmosphere that may result in adverse effects on humans, animals, vegetation, and/or materials”.

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 32

District NO2 SO2 BNZ Ba Dinh 47.7 32.3 9.3 Cau Giay 44.0 36.3 10.3 Dong Da 47.8 38.4 15.9 Hai Ba Trung 50.7 44.5 11.4 Hoang Mai 28.7 29.5 6.8 Hoan Kiem 64.2 36.5 18.4 Tay Ho 28.4 23.8 6.8 Thanh Xuan 47.0 52.9 12.4 TCVN 5937:2005 40 50 10

Figure 5.3.1 – results of the measurement campaign conducted by SVCAP per district (Unit: (µg/m3)

The above table shows that the average concentrations of air pollutants are very high I many of the central districts of Hanoi. Due to traffic characteristics in Hanoi (e.g. frequent low speed driving, congestions, lack of emission control etc.), the actual air pollution at traffic hotspots is often much higher. The table below shows the pollution levels at street level during traffic congestions in 2004:

Location NO2 SO2 CO VOC Nga Tu Vong Intersection 390 360 360 170 Nga Tu Kim Lien Intersection 370 350 350 160 Nga Tu Kim So Intersection 380 370 355 165 TCVN 5937:2005 40 50 40 5.0

Figure 5.3.2 – results of the measurement campaign conducted during congestion times in 2004 at selected intersections (Source: Son D.H, 2008) (Unit: (µg/m3)

It shows clearly that the pollution levels increase more than nine times in congested areas. This does not only affect the commuters, but also residents living near these areas.

5.4. The effect of air pollution on people in Hanoi Air pollution particles emitted by vehicles in Hanoi are so small that they can bypass respiratory defenses and lodge deep in the lungs, worsening lung diseases such as asthma, and increasing the risk of heart attack and premature death. Air pollution from emissions interferes with the development and function of the central nervous system, as well as the cardiovascular and reproductive systems. The least mobile populations – the poor, the young and the elderly suffer particularly (Saksena, 2007).

A study conducted in Hanoi (Phan, 2007) by the Hanoi Department of health found that over 72% of families in Hanoi have had members become sick from air pollution.

Children are especially vulnerable to the effects of air pollution, due to their differences in lung anatomy and physiology and organ maturity (Taylor, 2002). Airborne particles, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and acid aerosols have also been shown to induce acute respiratory symptoms, asthma, and bronchitis.

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 33

A study conducted in HCMC specifically focused on the effect of air pollution from traffic on the health of children, while also taking into account the socioeconomic position of the studied participants. The study was initiated in 2005 and in 2012 the final evaluation report was published (Sumi, 2007 and HEI, 2012). The study focused on associations between pediatric hospital admissions for acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), e.g. pneumonia or bronchiolitis.

The study found that ALRI admissions were generally positively associated with ambient levels of PM10, NO2, and SO2. In particular a strong correlation could be determined between combustion-source pollution from NO2, and SO2 and increased ALRI admissions. In addition the study found that a higher number of children from the poorer districts in HCMC were admitted to the hospital for ALRI.

Further research shows indications that exposure of traffic-related air pollution to a woman during pregnancy affects subsequent respiratory health of the new born child (Pinkerton, 2006), with effects likely to continue through the first four years of life and probably persisting into later childhood. Throughout adolescence, air pollution adversely affects lung function development and then, in later life, these impacts appear to manifest themselves largely through the cardiovascular system, where air pollution may even contribute to atherosclerosis and subsequent death from cardiovascular disease.

A study conducted in the United States (O’Connor, 2007) found that children with persistent asthma had significantly decreased lung function following exposure to higher concentrations of the air pollutants NO2, airborne fine particles, and SO2. Higher nitrogen dioxide levels and higher levels of fine particles also were associated with school absences related to asthma, and higher NO2 levels were associated with more asthma symptoms.

The effects of air pollution on the general public are also severe. A study conducted by MONRE in 2008 compared common illnesses between people living in Thuong Dinh ward (Thanh Xuan district), Hanoi with people living in the more rural district of Gia Lam of Hanoi. Thuong Dinh ward is densely populated and adjacent to major traffic arteries such as Tay Son and Lang Street.

Location % in Thuong Dinh % in Gia Lam Chronic bronchitis 6.4 2.8 Upper respiratory infection 36.1 13.1 Lower respiratory infection 17.9 15.5 Optical symptoms 28.5 16.1 Nose symptoms 17.5 13.7 Throat symptoms 31.4 26.3 Skin symptoms 17.6 6.6 Vegetative nervous system symptoms 30.6 21.5 Nervous response symptoms 40.7 37.7 Ventilate function disorder 29.4 22.8

Figure 5.4 – percentage of desease cases in industrial area Thuong Dinh compared to a rural area (Phu Thuy, Gia Lam district) (source: MONRE, 2008)

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It showed that the number of respiratory illness cases was more than twice that of the people living in the rural district.

5.5. Effect of e-bikes on the air quality in Hanoi Currently, Vietnam has only detailed emission inventories for the use of conventional vehicles. Although the operation of e-bikes is air emission neutral during operation, electricity consumed during recharge operation at households is normally sourced from the national grid. As explained in chapter 4, in Vietnam only direct carbon dioxide emission data is available of the power generation in the national power grid. Emissions of other pollutants are currently not published by the government. However, a study on e-bikes in Hanoi conducted by ADB (ADB, 2009) uses power sector inventory data to provide an estimated value of emissions. This is a conservative approach.

The study assumes that the electricity requirements at the plug are 1.8 kilowatt-hours per 100 km (kWh/100 km) for electric bicycles and 2.3 kWh/100 km for electric scooters (including transmission losses of the grid).

Pollutant Electric bicycle Electric Scooter 4-stroke motorbike

CO2 (g/km) 16.1 20.5 55 BC (mg/100 km) 0.8 1.0 – CO (mg/100 km) 31.5 40.2 1,250,000 NOX (g/100 km) 1.3 1.7 15 OC (g/100 km) 0.4 0.5 – PM10 (g/100 km) 0.3 0.4 10 PM2.5 (g/100 km) 0.2 0.3 – SO2 (g/100 km) 1.9 2.4 – VOC (g/100 km) 0.0 0.1 225 Figure 5.5 – emissions from e-bikes in comparison to a 4-stroke motorbike (source: ADB, 2009)

The table above shows that the CO2 emissions from electric bicycles are only one third of motorcycles. Also particle matter emissions are less than one tenth compared to motorcycles. Hence, the use of electric bicycles will have a very significant impact on air quality improvements on Vietnam as a whole.

The same study indicates that in 2005 12 billion passenger-kilometers were traveled in Hanoi, or 8,000 km per motorbike. This clearly shows the immense emission reduction that is possible when an uptake in the use of electric bicycles takes place.

5.6. The cost of air pollution in Hanoi The average time for sick leave because of air pollution related sickness in Hanoi is 1.2- 2.4 times/person/year (Phan, 2007). The same study estimated that illnesses related to air pollution cause losses of 20% in terms of income and health. Bronchial asthma patients have the highest ratios of sick leave: the off-work days for a patient are between 8-16/year. It is estimated that the average spending of each asthma patient in Vietnam is around US$301/year. Another study estimated that Hanoi losses one billion Vietnam dong/day (eq. 48,000 USD/day) because of air pollution (SVCAP, 2007).

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From a broader perspective, experts say that if the environmental losses caused by the economic development in Vietnam are taken into account, the real growth GDP growth rate would be reduced by 50% (UNEP, 2007).

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6. Status of poor and disabled people in Hanoi

6.1. Poverty in Hanoi Vietnam’s record on economic growth and poverty reduction over the last two decades has been remarkable. Using a “basic needs” poverty line initially agreed in the early 1990s, the poverty headcount fell from 58 percent in the early 1990s to 14.5 percent by 2008. The official poverty line in Vietnam is defined by the Ministry of Labour – Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA). MOLISA defines the urban and rural poverty lines of VND 500,000/person/month and VND 400,000/person/month respectively.

The most comprehensive survey in this field is conducted by the General Statistics Office (GSO) through the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys (VHLSS), which was last conducted in 2010. The survey does not provide data specifically for Hanoi, but provides data for the red river delta instead. The GSO estimates the poverty rate in the red river delta is 8.4% in 2010, compared to 14.2% nationwide.

A survey specifically focusing on Hanoi (UNEP 2010), estimates that 1.27% of the population in Hanoi was living in poverty in 2009. The income poor in Ha Noi mainly concentrate in the rural areas with a high level of 10%; meanwhile the income poverty rate is only 1% in the urban areas of Ha Noi.

Characteristics on income and spending clearly show that the income of the poor is barely above the poverty line, with an average income of only 805,000 VND per month in 2010.

Table 6.1 – income of households (source: UNEP, 2010)

There are strong disparities between those in the poorest quintile and those at the top of the income distribution in Hanoi, as observed in the following table:

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Table 6.1.1 – status of employment (source: UNEP, 2010)

Almost nobody in a poor household has a university education or a white-collar job or owns a business; few work for the state, or have the security of an indefinite work contract; and only one in five receives any work-related benefits.

6.2. Status of people with disabilities in Hanoi The most comprehensive survey that includes data on people with disabilities (PWD) is the 2009 Population and Housing census that is conducted by GSO. This survey was the first in Vietnam to adopt internationally recognized (WHO framework) approaches on definition and surveying of this data on PWD. Prior to this survey, statistics among agencies often varied due to differences in surveying approaches (e.g. disability prevalence in Vietnam of 6.6% (MOLISA, 2005) and 15.3% (GSO, 2006)). An interesting feature of the Population and Housing census is that it allows comparison between people with disabilities and people with no disabilities (PWOD).

The 2009 Population and Housing census (UNFPA, 2011) found that among persons aged 5 years or older in Viet Nam in 2009 7.8% (6,1 million people) had one or more disability in seeing, hearing, walking or cognition. Of the 7.8%, 385,000 persons (6.3%) had severe disabilities 8 . In Hanoi, 6.44% of the population has disabilities.

The 2009 Census show that PWD experience worse household living standards than PWOD. The proportion of PWD in the highest living standards quintile is 15.4%. This is less than the 21.1 per cent of PWOD in the same quintile. Similar differences between PWD and PWOD are found in the high-to-middle living standards quintile, whereas the reverse picture is the case in the low-to-middle and lowest living standards quintiles.

Data provided by the Hanoi Association for the Handicapped (DP Hanoi, 2012) on the income level of PWD shows that 25.27% of the PWD in Hanoi are classified as poor, 10% as nearly or and 17.87% received social support, while 39.66% received (public) health insurance.

8 In the survey, severe disabilities were defined as “cannot do anything at all”.

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Compared to non-disabled population (PWOD), PWD are much older. The population pyramids of the three groups of population presented in Figure 6.2 clearly show this difference: the PWD and PWSD have showed much higher proportions of people in older age groups. The mean age of PWD is 59 years, compared to 30 years of PWOD. The population pyramids also show a higher ratio of PWD females to males in the older age groups, particularly for PWSD.

On average, an adult PWD has attended school for approximately 5 years compared with almost 7 years for an adult PWOD. Overall, in recent years Viet Nam has made impressive achievements in gender equality and women’s empowerment. The literacy ratio between women and men aged 15 to Table 6.2 – age distribution of PWD and PWOD (source: UNFPA, 2009) 24 years 23 is 1. However, the literacy ratio of PWD is only 0.8. These findings suggest that, while the country has generally made great progress in gender equality and women’s empowerment, further and significant efforts are needed to support and encourage vulnerable groups.

The PWD population has lower participation rates and higher unemployment rates in both rural and urban areas. As the level of difficulties increase, the labor force participation rate reduces and, in turn, the unemployment rate rises. Labor force participation rates for PWOD are 82.7% whereas this is 72.0% for PWD. In urban areas, unemployment rates for those groups are 4.3% and 13.9%, respectively.

The PWD have slightly worse living conditions and standards than PWOD, although these differences are marginal. The PWD have slightly worse house conditions than PWOD; the proportion of PWD living in permanent housing (14.1 per cent) is lower than that of PWOD (17.4 per cent). The PWD also have worse access to hygienic toilet facilities than PWOD; findings confirm 54.0 per cent of PWOD having access to hygienic toilet facilities; this rate falls to 46.7 per cent for PWD. However, PWD and PWOD have equal access to safe water. Data from the 2009 Census show similar levels of living conditions among PWSD and PWD.

6.3. Inclusion of poor and PWD in the project The above statistics show that the literacy rate of PWD is 20% lower than those without a disability. In addition, the unemployment rate among PWD is almost 3 times as high as the unemployment rate of PWOD. In addition, the poor tend to have less job security and education in comparison with people in the higher income strata.

These statistics clearly show the importance of creating gainful employment opportunities for PWD and people from disadvantaged backgrounds. Opportunities for

Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 39 these groups in the e-bike project are particularly beneficial due to the innovative nature of the project.

In relation to engagement of PWD or people from disadvantaged backgrounds, it is recommended to pay special attention to education and vocational training in the initial stages of the project. As shown in the statistics, PWD have lower literacy rates and enjoyed less education than PWOD. Hence, it may be useful to subject applicants for the position to a test to gauge the knowledge, experience and abilities in comparison with the job requirements. Based on this, an individual training plan for each staff can be developed to mitigate these matters. Since extra cost may be associated with these activities, the feasibility study report should allow sufficient margin in the investment budget and operating cost to accommodate these factors.

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7. Conclusion and recommendations

7.1. Outcome of the survey

Conclusion From the student survey it can be observed that students that use an e-bike are actually positive about the vehicle, in terms of performance and maintenance. However, students that did not use an e-bike have a negative perception of e-bikes, which are mostly related to the fact that non-e-bike users do not have practical experience with these vehicles. In addition, only a minor number of students said that they would use an e- bike. Reasons for this were the current ownership of another vehicle and concerns about the operational aspects such as recharging.

For suppliers the main issue is the high import tax on the e-bikes, which can also be seen as a barrier for successful promotion of e-bikes and also affects the quality and technology of the e-bikes currently on the road.

Through implementation of the survey it could be observed that students are the main users of e-bikes and hence the hypothesis of the project to focus on students is justified. The average age of e-bike users is 17.8 years old.

Key recommendations 1. As explained above, when asked why non-e-bike users do not use an e-bike, their rationale was commonly related to the lack of practical experience. Therefore, within the e-bike project it is recommended to incorporate a “trying is believing” approach, where non-e-bike users can use the e-bike on a trial basis, to take away their concerns. 2. Students are the main e-bike users, hence a viable target group for e-bike promotion. However, parents make most of the buying decisions. The survey conducted as part of this baseline study only focused on students and their rationale for using/buying the e-bike. Within the framework of the project sufficient attention should be given to capacity building and participations of parents (e.g. address concerns buyers have). 3. Students that are using the e-bike are satisfied with their vehicle. It is therefore suggested to investigate the possibility to use e-bike users are “ambassadors” in the project. 4. Suppliers frequently mentioned the high import tax on the e-bikes as an obstacle for their business. To address these concerns it may be useful to further promote the benefits of e-bikes to policymakers and to advise them on tax policy revisions (e.g. by providing a comparison of tax incentives provided in neighboring countries and its effect on e-bikes/traffic flows/air quality/tax revenue. 5. Supplies often did not have sufficient technical knowhow about the e-bikes they sold (e.g. what the battery type was). Therefore, the project may explore options for capacity building of e-bike suppliers.

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7.2. Awareness of policymakers on EE transport modes

Conclusion From the policy review it can be observed that e-bikes and bicycles do have a beneficial effect on reducing traffic jams and reducing noise and particulate pollution. However, policymakers in general are not aware of the benefits of e-bikes. One important factor is the lack of research on e-bikes and practical experience of policymakers with e-bikes. While contacting government agencies it was often mentioned that research was conducted on e-bikes and bicycles, but as part of a larger study on conventional transportation modes, such as expansion of roads. In addition, there is presently no common approach towards transportation across the various ministries (e.g. on sustainability, transportation modes, environmental impact).

Key recommendations 1. The undervalued position of e-bikes in the overall transportation mix in Hanoi was clearly acknowledged while working with government agencies on the status of policymaking for e-bikes, since no agency could be identified that has dedicated staff working on e-bike policy / advocacy matters. To overcome this, a two way approach is recommended: (i) provide capacity building activities for policymakers through dissemination of research and information about e-bikes (e.g. through workshops, participation in seminars, development of whitepapers, and contribution to academic research) and (ii) to engaging policymakers in pilot activities to try e-bikes in practice. 2. To open a dialogue with the relevant government actors in relation to the e-bike import policy, while emphasizing secondary benefits that may develop through e-bike promotion (e.g. job creation, lower environmental impact).

7.3. Power generation and development of solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Vietnam

Conclusion Vietnam has excellent potential for development of renewable energy, including solar PV power. However, with the exception of hydropower the current renewable energy contribution to the total power generation mix is very small. The main reason is the low feed-in-tariff for power generation, which is not high enough to incentivize investors.

Solar PV power in Vietnam exists, but often for specific applications, such as rural electrification.

Key recommendations 1. The project should take into account that currently both the feed-in-tariff for generators and the purchase price of consumers for electricity is one of the lowest in Southeast Asia. 2. Policymakers, students and other groups have relative little exposure to practical examples of solar PV power applications. Therefore, application of solar PV power in the project is likely to be one of the very few examples of practical examples of the

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technology that actors have come across. Hence, it is recommended to also invite relevant actors in the field of energy to visit the project to create additional capacity building and awareness raising opportunities on this technology. 3. In addition to the above, it is recommended to disseminate the experience of implementation the solar PV power project in a report and to practically describe implementation process followed (e.g. licensing, import and construction issues actual plant performance, financial analysis etc). This will reduce the barriers that other actors have to overcome when they want to apply renewable energy power generation at their sites.

7.4. Transportation and its impact on air quality in Hanoi

Conclusion Around 80% of the vehicles on the road in Hanoi are motorbikes. Most of the vehicles do not have modern emission control features, such as fuel injection systems. Hence, in many of the central districts of Hanoi the air quality does not meet the When taking into account power generation, CO2 emissions from electric bicycles are only one third of motorcycles. Also particle matter emissions are less than one tenth compared to motorcycles. Hence, increased use of e-bikes has a tremendous beneficial effect on the air quality in Hanoi.

However, the successful promotion of e-bikes is linked to engagement of policymakers (import tariff and awareness/consideration in policy and infrastructure development) as well as the successful promotion of this project on concepts such as renting and trial use of e-bikes to people that do not own such vehicles.

Key recommendations 1. From the survey it can be observed that students are very much concerned about the environment. Hence, it is recommended to visualize the actual contribution of an e-bike to air quality improvement. An example can be to create an electronic board at the e-bike recharge station stating “emission reduction to date:” showing various indicators. 2. Most motorbikes do not meet the emission standard. To further incentivize students to exchange their motorbike to e-bike it is recommended to also provide examples of the pollution caused by motorbikes. An example can be to allow students to bring their own motorbike to the e-bike station, where their emissions are measured with emission monitoring equipment.

7.5. Status of poor and disabled people in Hanoi

Conclusion The data shows that the living conditions of people with disabilities (PWD) are worse than those without a disability (PWOD). Data indicates that 25.27% of the PWD are poor (compared to 1.27% PWOD) and the literacy rate among PWD is much lower than PWOD. In addition, unemployment rates among PWD almost 3 times higher than PWOD.

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Employment opportunities for PWD under the e-bike project are thus very beneficial to this group, also due to the innovative nature of the project and the social entrepreneur component.

Key recommendations 1. In relation to engagement of PWD or people from disadvantaged backgrounds, it is recommended to pay special attention to education and vocational training in the initial stages of the project and its effect on the initial investment and future operating cost. 2. The e-bike project is expected to be established as a social enterprise. The social contribution may also lead to additional operating cost, e.g. due to training. Hence, in order to able to compete in the market place, it is recommended to create a “social development plan” to outline the planned social contribution of the project and its financial implications.

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REFERENCES SVCAP; Fabian, S. Report on the first Air Quality Measuring Campaign in Hanoi using the Passive Sampling Method; SVCAP Publisher, Vietnam: 2007.

Hanoi Statistical Office, Hanoi Statistical yearbook 2010

General Statistics Office, Transportation Statistics 2012

Saksena, S.; Quang, T. N.; Nguyen, T.; Dang, P. N.; Flachsbart, P. Commuters' exposure to particulate matter and carbon monoxide in Hanoi, Vietnam. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 2008, 13 (3), 206-211.

Pinkerton KE, Joad JP. Influence of air pollution on respiratory health during perinatal development. Clin Exp Pharmacol Physiol 2006; 33: 269–272.

ADB, 2009, Electric Two-Wheelers in India and Viet Nam Market Analysis and Environmental Impacts, ISBN 978-971-561-873-1

G O’Connor et al. Acute respiratory health effects of air pollution on asthmatic children in US inner cities. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (2008).

Pham, L. T. (2007): Research programme on diseases related to air pollution in the inner Hanoi area, Hanoi Department of Health: http://www.intellasia.net/hanoians-health- threatened-by-pollution-64089

Sumi, M., Le, T. G., Vu, X. D. and others (2007): Air Pollution, Poverty, and Health in Ho Chi Minh City.

UNFPA, 2011, Key Findings from the 2009 Viet Nam Population and Housing Census

Kim Oanh, N. T.; Martel, M.; Pongkiatkul, P.; Berkowicz, R. Determination of fleet hourly emission and on-road vehicle emission factor using integrated monitoring and modeling approach. Atmospheric Research 2008, 89 (3), 223-232.

Khuat Viet Hung, (2009), Expected research needs for innovating intercity transport: Current discussion in Vietnam, presented at International conference on Sustainability Science in Asia.

Guttikunda, S.K., Son, D.H,; (2008) Working Paper Series supporting the SIM-air Program (Simple Interactive Models for Better Air Quality), SIM 14-2008 -- An “Air Quality Management” Action Plan for Hanoi, Vietnam

Dang Dinh Thong, 2012, Solar PV Technology in Vietnam Application status & problems and future

Trinh Qung Dung, 2009, Photovoltaic technology and solar energy development in Viet Nam, Techmonitor Nov-Dec 2009

Le Thi Anh Tuyet, 2012, SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT Evaluation opportunities for Asia cities: The case of Hanoi

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NGUYEN, Thi Thanh Huong, 2010, Potential of modal shift for urban daily mobility, case of Hanoi and HCM

World Bank, 2010, World Bank’s Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE). Vietnam - Expanding Opportunities for Energy Efficiency, March 2010

UNEP (2007): Global Environment Outlook GEO4. UNEP (2010), Urban Poverty Assessment in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City

Christopher R. Cherry, Jonathan X. Weinert, Yang Xinmiao, Comparative environmental impacts of electric bikes in China, Transportation Research Part D 14 (2009) 281–290.

Chi-Jen Yang, 2010, "Launching strategy for electric vehicles: Lessons from China and Taiwan, Elsevier Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) 831–834

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List of relevant stakeholders

E-bike & Hanoi government policy / effect of e-bike on transportation Institute of Transport Planning and Management (ITPM), University of Transport and Communication Dr. Ing. Khuat Viet Hung, Director Address: Láng Thượng – Hanoi - Viet Nam Email: [email protected] Telephone: +84 43766 4078 Contact purpose: Telephone contact 25/04/2013 for interview. Mr. Khuat was unable to meet for interview but able to provide references to (i) discuss available research on e- bikes in Vietnam in general (ii) provide reference to information on the available research on effect of e-bikes/bicycles on traffic flow prepared by his institute. (iii) Provided general opinion that at this moment little research is conducted specifically on e-bikes, and most is conducted in relation to another project (e.g. general assessment on traffic flow in a given street).

Hanoi Urban Transport Management and Operation Centre Address: 16 Cao Bá Quát – Hanoi - Vietnam Email: [email protected]; Telephone: 04.3747 0403 Contact purpose: Telephone contact 25/04/2013 and 14/04/2013 to international relations department. However, the department could not refer designated individuals within their organization with specific knowledge on the subject of e-bikes / bicycles policy. Outcome of the telephone conversations was that the department was considering bicycles and e-bikes but no specific projects and policies were developed by the agency at the moment.

Air quality / air pollution in Hanoi Mr. Ngo Tho Hung Environmental research professional. Previous principal Researcher and Consultant, Head of Section at Center for Environmental Research (CENRE), Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment. Telephone: 09 66 89 75 86 Email: [email protected] Contact purpose: E-mail contact to determine relevant agencies that are active in the field of environmental research and air quality and availability of recent reports on air quality in Hanoi.

Department of Pollution Control – Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Address: 10 Ton That Thuyet Street, Hanoi, Vietnam Telephone: 04.37713175 Email: [email protected] Contact purpose: Telephone contact 08/05/2013, Mr Dang Van Loi referred to the latest State of the Environment report issued by his agency.

Solar Power in Vietnam School of Environmental Science and Technology, Hanoi University of Technology

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Prof. Dr. Dang Dinh Thong Address: 1 Dai Co Viet Street, Hanoi Email: [email protected] Contact purpose: Not contacted but indicated as suggested contact during Feasibility Study Report development. This department is active in the field of solar power generation research and has demonstration plants active at their facilities.

Statistics on poor/disabled people Inclusive Development Action (IDEA) Ms. Vu Thi Binh Minh, director Address: P312B, B14 Kim Liên, Đống Đa, Hanoi Email: [email protected] Telephone: 04.222 04 113 Contact purpose: contacted 15/05/2013 by email to determine the available statistics on people with disabilities in relation to the requirements of the project.

Development of a social enterprise / engage disabled/poor in business Centre for Social Initiatives Promotion Ms. Kieu Oanh Pham, director Room 1406B, B Tower, Ha Thanh Plaza, 102 Thai Thinh Street, Hanoi Telephone: 04.35378746 Contact purpose: Not contacted but indicated as suggested contact during Feasibility Study Report development to obtain information about development of the social enterprise.

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Annex 1: copy of the student and manufacturer surveys The following four images are an example of a completed survey of a respondent that does not own an e-bike:

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The following four images are an example of one completed survey of someone that uses an e-bike:

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The following four images are an example of one completed supplier survey:

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Annex 2: copy of original surveys in English

The following pages contain the student and supplier survey form that was used.

Study on Electric Bicycles in Hanoi, April/May 2013 SURVEY ON THE USAGE OF ELECTRIC BYCICLES AMONG STUDENTS The purpose of this survey is to study transportation habits and awareness of electric bicycles (e-bikes). Completing the survey will only take 3 minutes of your time. Your valuable feedback will help us to promote electric bicycles and the associated potential for air pollution reduction in Hanoi. Your information will be treated as confidential. This survey is conducted on behalf of Caritas Switzerland in Vietnam, a non-government development organization from Switzerland.

Section A - Background questions

Firstly we would like to ask you a few questions to help us analyse the survey: General information Your name: ______Gender:  Male  Female Age: ______Major in: ______Telephone number: ______Study year: ______Name of University/School: Date: ngày ___ tháng __ 2013 ______

Section B - Your travel behaviour

These questions will help give us an understanding of how you like to travel.

1. What kind of vehicles do you own? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of any applicable choices.  Bicycle  Electric Bicycle/Scooter  No vehicle  Motorbike  Car  Other ______

2. Which 3 types of transport do you use most often? Instruction: please mark the most used as 1, the second as 2 and the third as 3. __ Bus __ Car __ Walking __ Bicycle __ Motorbike __ Xe om __ Electric bicycle/scooter __ Taxi Other ______

3. How many trips do you make per day on average? ______trips per day. 4. How many kilometres do you travel? On a normal day: _____ kilometre per day. And per week: _____ kilometre. 5. How much money do you spend on transportation per month (average)? ______VND per month. 6. How much is your budget/income per month (average)? ______VND per month  I do not want to disclose

7. Do you know the following electric two-wheelers? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of any applicable choices.  Electric bicycle (The vehicle has pedals but pedalling is optional).  Electric scooter (The vehicle has no pedals).  Pedal assist bicycle (This vehicle looks like a conventional bicycle and the motor will assist you during

Page 1 of 4 Study on Electric Bicycles in Hanoi, April/May 2013 pedalling. The vehicle will stop if you stop pedalling).  Conversion kit (a kit with equipment to convert a conventional bicycle into a pedal assist bicycle).  I am not familiar with any of these electric two-wheelers

8. What would be the main motivation for you to buy (or use) an e-bike? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of any applicable choices.  An increase in fuel price  Government restricts car/motorbike use  Save money on transportation  Protect the environment  It is easier to drive than a motorbike  It is silent / noiseless  To impress friends and family  Ease to park/store  I like the design / colours of e-bikes  To avoid traffic jams  If government announces a tax on  It saves time traveling car/motorbike use  I am not old enough to drive a motorbike  Other reason ______Can you explain your answer in more detail? ______

9. What would be a reason for you not to buy (or use) an e-bike? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of any applicable choices.  The range it can travel is too short  It is too slow  Quality concerns  None of my friends have an e-bike  Had/heard about bad experience with e-bikes  Negative comments from friends and family  Already have another type of transportation  I do not feel safe when driving it  I do not like the design of e-bikes  Difficulty to recharge  I do not like to wear a helmet  It lacks features that my current vehicle has  It is not suitable to carry multiple people  Other reason ______Can you explain your answer in more detail? ______

In the next section of the survey we would like to ask you questions on the usage of the electric bicycle. If you do not use or own an e-bike, please complete questions 9 to 12 below. If you use or own an e-bike, please go to question 13.

Section C - Questions for people that do not use or own an e-bike

You do not use or own an e-bike. We would like to ask you the following questions:

10. Do you plan to use or purchase an e-bike? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice.  Yes  No (please go to question 12)  Maybe

Reasons: ______9.1. If yes, who would pay for the e-bike?  Myself  Parents/caretaker  Employer  Other person

11. What model would you choose if you are going to buy an e-bike in the next few months? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice.  Electric bicycle  Electric scooter  Pedal assist bicycle  Conversion kit  Not decided yet 10.1. What type of e-bike defined in question 10 would you NOT want to use? ______ Not sure/no answer Page 2 of 4 Study on Electric Bicycles in Hanoi, April/May 2013 Why Not? ______

12. Would you be interested to rent an e-bike? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice.  Yes  No  Maybe

13. If yes, how much would you pay for renting an e-bike? I would be willing to rent it for ______VND/per month  Not sure/no answer

This is the end of this section. Please go to question 26 on page 5 of this questionnaire.

Section C - Questions for people that use or own an e-bike

You use or own an e-bike. We would like to ask you the following questions:

14. How long have you owned an e-bike? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice.  0 – 3 months  6 – 12 months  3 – 6 months  Longer than 1 year

15. Why did you decide to use an e-bike? Instruction: please fill in your answer on the line below. ______

16. What type of e-bike is it? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice.  electric bicycle (with pedals)  Pedal assist bicycle (Xe Đạp trợ lực)  electric scooter (without pedals)  I converted my bicycle to electric bicycle (conversion kit)

17. Which brand and model e-bike do you use or own? Instruction: please fill in your answer on the line below.

Brand name: ______Model: ______ Not sure

18. What mode(s) of transport did you use previously? Instruction: please mark the most used as 1, the second as 2 and the third as 3 etc. Leave empty if not used. ___ Bus ___ Walking ___ Xe om ___ Bicycle ___ Electric Bicycle/Scooter ___ Car ___ Motorbike ___ Taxi Other ______

19. For what kind of trips do you use your e-bike mostly? Instruction: please mark the most used as 1, the second as 2 and the third as 3 etc. Leave empty if not used. ___ Travel to school/university ___ Shopping / go to market ___ Pick up someone ___ Travel to work ___ Leisure ___ All kinds of trips Other, please specify______

20. Who purchased (paid) the e-bike? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice.  Myself  Parents/caretaker  Employer  Other person

Page 3 of 4 Study on Electric Bicycles in Hanoi, April/May 2013

21. How long can you use the e-bike before recharging it? ______kilometre. Recharge time: ______hours

22. Is the performance (e.g. distance it can travel on 1 charge) of the e-bike similar to what the seller told you when you bought it?  Yes  No, what is the difference? ______ Not sure

23. Where do you recharge the e-bike? ______

24. Do you encounter any difficulties with recharging?  Yes, details ______ No

25. Please state your general satisfaction with the use of the e-bike? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice Very unsatisfied Not satisfied Neutral Satisfied Very satisfied      24.1. Can you specify your answers (i.e. why you are very satisfied, or why are you not satisfied)? ______

26. Please state your satisfaction with your current e-bike in relation to the following key words: Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice or “not applicable” if no choice is applicable. Not Very Not Very Neutral Satisfied applicable unsatisfied satisfied satisfied a. Speed       b. Reliability       c. Quality       d. Traveling range       e. Storage space inside e-bike       f. Safety when driving       g. Comfort in normal weather       h. Appearance / looks       i. Battery life       j. Easy to repair/find spare parts       k. Easy to connect charger       l. Impression on friends and family       m. Easy to fit inside buildings       n. Secure locking / theft protection       o. Expensive to replace parts       p. Wearing a helmet      

Section D – End of the survey

27. This is the end of the survey. Do you have any further suggestion or comments? ______

______

Thank you for participating!

Page 4 of 4 Study on Electric Bicycles in Hanoi, April/May 2013 SURVEY ON THE USAGE OF ELECTRIC BYCICLES AMONG SUPPLIERS/MANUFACTURERS The purpose of this survey is to study transportation habits and awareness of electric bicycles (e-bikes). Completing the survey will only take 3 minutes of your time. Your valuable feedback will help us to promote electric bicycles and the associated potential for air pollution reduction in Hanoi. Your information will be treated as confidential. This survey is conducted on behalf of Caritas Switzerland in Vietnam, a non-government development organization from Switzerland.

Section A - Background questions

Firstly we would like to ask you a few questions to help us analyse the survey: General information Your name: ______Type of business:  Manufacturer  Distributor  Retailer Telephone number: ______Name of company/shop: ______Position in company: ______Address of company/shop Date: day ___ month ___ 2013 ______

Section B – Basic information about your business

These questions will help give us a general understanding of your business.

1. How many years have you been selling/distributing/manufacturing e-bikes? ______years

2. Why did you start selling/distributing/manufacturing e-bikes? What market indications did you get? ______

3. Do you sell/distribute/manufacture the following types of e-bikes? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of any applicable choices.  Electric bicycle  Electric scooter  Pedal assist bicycle  Conversion kit (a kit with equipment to convert a conventional bicycle into a pedal assist bicycle).  I am not sure

4. Do you sell spare parts for e-bikes, e.g. new batteries? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice.  Yes  No

If yes, what kind of spare parts: ______

5. What other services do you offer to your customers? (i.e. recharging, repair works, guarantee)?

______

Page 1 of 4 Baseline study on E-Bike in Hanoi

6. How many e-bikes do you sell in a normal week (average over the last 3 years)? Instruction: please insert a value in the line given below 2011 2012 2013 I prefer not to Not sure/No answer disclose ______ 

Section C – Information about people that use e-bikes

These questions will help give us an understanding of the people that are using e-bikes.

7. From your observation: what are the 3 main reasons for your customers to purchase an e-bike? Instruction: please mark the most used as 1, the second as 2 and the third as 3. ___ An increase in fuel price ___ To give as gift or present ___ Save money on transportation ___ Protect the environment ___ It is easier to drive than a motorbike ___ It is silent / noiseless ___ To impress friends and family ___ Ease to park/store ___ Because of the design / colours of e-bikes ___ To avoid traffic jams ___ User is not old enough to use a motorbike ___ It saves time traveling ___ Due to government announcement on new Other reason ______tax/regulation on car/motorbike use Can you explain your answer in more detail? ______

8. What type of e-bike (e.g. electric bicycle or electric scooter) is most popular? Instruction: please insert a value in the line given below I prefer not to disclose Not sure/No answer ______ 

9. For what kind of trips do you your customers use the e-bike mostly? Instruction: please mark the most used as 1, the second as 2 and the third as 3 etc. Leave empty if not applicable. ___ Travel to school/university ___ Shopping / go to market ___ Pick up someone ___ Travel to work ___ Leisure / sport ___ All kinds of trips

10. Can you describe your main customer (the person who is paying the invoice)? Instruction: please insert a value in the line given below Description: Age: Gender Not sure/No answer ______ Male  Female  11. For whom do they purchase the e-bike (The person actually using the e-bike)? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of any applicable choices.  Themselves  Their child  Other family member  Other person  Not sure/no answer

12. From your observation, how old are most e-bike users? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice. None Some Many Very much a. Up to 19 years     b. 20–29 years     c. 30-39 years     d. 40-59 years     e. 60 years or older    

Page 2 of 4 Baseline study on E-Bike in Hanoi

13. What are the 3 main e-bike concerns of your customers when they visit your shop: Instruction: please mark 3 checkboxes. f. Speed  g. Battery life  h. Reliability  i. Easy to repair/find spare parts  j. Quality  k. Easy to connect charger  l. Traveling range  m. Impression on friends and family  n. Storage space inside e-bike  o. Easy to fit inside buildings  p. Safety when driving  q. Secure locking / theft protection  r. Comfort in normal weather  s. Expensive to replace parts  t. Ability to use e-bike in the rain  u. Wearing a helmet 

Section D – Technical information about e-bikes.

We would like to know general technical information about the e-bikes that you sell.

14. What range (kilometre a bike can travel on 1 charge) do customers generally require from an e-bike (km/per recharge)? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of any applicable choices.  Lower than 10 km/charge  21-30 km/charge  41-50 km/charge  10-20 km/charge  31-40 km/charge  Higher than 50 km/charge

15. What type of batteries do the e-bikes that you sell/distribute/manufacture have? Instruction: please mark the most used as 1, the second as 2 and the third as 3, etc. ___ Lead-acid ___ Lithium-polymer  Other ___ Lithium-ion ___ NiCD  I am not sure

16. Please provide the technical parameters of the 5 most sold electric two-wheelers by your company: Instruction: please fill in the information of each of the 5 most sold e-bikes in the space provided. Vehicle 1 Vehicle 2 Vehicle 3 Vehicle 4 Vehicle 5 a. Brand name b. Model c. Country of origin d. Advertised travel range (km/charge) e. Retail price (VND) f. Power consumption (kWh/100 km) g. Battery type h. e-bike type (e.g. electric bicycle, electric scooter, pedal assist or conversion kit)

Page 3 of 4 Study on Electric Bicycles in Hanoi, April/May 2013

Section E – Your opinion on e-bike promotion

We would like to know your opinion on e-bike promotion.

17. What are your expectations for the electric bicycle market in 2013 compared to 2012? Instruction: please mark the checkbox of one applicable choice.  Decreasing considerably  Same as last year  Growing considerably  Decreasing  Growing  Not sure Explain your choice/answer (i.e why/how/etc)

18. (In your opinion) What is the potential for e-bike development in the next 5 years?

______

19. What challenges are e-bike manufacturers/suppliers facing in terms of government policy and support?

______

20. Can you tell us your idea how e-bikes could be better promoted in Hanoi?

______

21. What do you think are the main limiting factors that prevent the usage of e-bikes in Hanoi?

______

Section F – End of the survey

22. This is the end of the survey. Do you have any further suggestion or comments? ______

______

Thank you for participating!

Page 4 of 4 Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 61

Annex 3: copy of the TOR for consultants

The following pages contain the original TOR for consultants to conduct the baseline study.

Contract Number:

JOB/TASKS PROFILE

Position: Consultants for Baseline Study of E-Bike Project Work Time: 10 April – Starting Date: 10 April 2013 22 May 2013

Duties 1. Gain full understanding of the project goal and its objectives. 2. Develop a detailed workplan to carry out all required tasks (incl. suggested methodologies, timeframe, resources, task allocation between consultants/project team, report structure, etc.). 3. Carry out studies (incl. document research, questionnaires, interviews, etc). 4. Develop a report (incl. all relevant aspects regarding the tasks assigned, and incl. a list of proposals for suitable partner organisations for the project). 5. Organise a small workshop (together with the Caritas Programme Manager) to adjust the overall project (incl. logframe, workplan, etc), advice for further steps to be taken, and planning of the feasibility study.

Qualifications 1. Relevant tertiary degree 2. Strong experience in designing and execution of qualitative and quantitative research 3. Sound knowledge/understanding of renewable energy/energy efficiency, CO 2 emission, policy climate 4. Sound understanding of technologies relating to bicycles/e-bicycles and solar energy 5. Excellent English writing skills 6. Team spirit

Date: 3 April 2013 Deadline: 7 April 2013 Contact: Ms Le Thi Minh Thi, email: [email protected] , phone: 04 3832 5943 Further details can be found in the attached TORs Caritas Switzerland in Vietnam

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Contract Number:

Terms of Reference:

Two Consultants for Baseline Study of E-Bike Project

Project Title: Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy in Vietnamese Cities: An Explorative Project Initiated and Tested in Hanoi.

Time : April/May 2013 (22 days)

1. Project Background and Goal

Caritas is starting up a new project called Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy in Vietnamese Cities: An Explorative Project Initiated and Tested in Hanoi . Overall goal of the project is to contribute to sustainable development in Vietnam by providing CO2-reducing technology solutions, while at the same time supporting viable pro-poor business options for the poor and disabled. Specifically, the project aims to:

• Increase knowledge and awareness among relevant actors by communicating innovative and feasible solution of renewable energy (through the ebike and solar energy promotion); and to • Put forward an innovative and viable business approach/ model that enables a combination of ebike technology promotion and pro-poor business.

The project will be implemented from April 2013 until September 2014.

Caritas Vietnam is looking for a group of one international consultant and one national consultant (can apply seperately or as a team) to carry out the project baseline study. The assignment is expected to be completed by 22 May 2013.

A project overview on goal, objectives, results and project components of the project can be found in the Annex.

2. Scope of Work

Overall Objective: Overall objective of the consultancy work is to lay the ground for the project by carrying out several baselines. These baselines are the preparation for the feasibility study of the project, which in turn will define the final design of the pilot project.

Short Description: The task of the consultants include the preparation of baseline studies on

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Contract Number:

a) students’ attitude, awareness, usage, and costs of their daily means of transportation and viable alternatives, such as e-bikes (esp. also in regard to renewable energy and micro- climate improvement in Hanoi/effect to greenhouse effect) as well as preferred types/models of electric two-wheelers; b) the income situation of the poor disabled in Hanoi and their employment status; c) relevant policy makers’ awareness and knowledge, and the state of relevant renewable energy and energy efficiency implementation and policies in Vietnam, as well as existing policies on urban air environment, and suggested transportation solutions (in regard to micro-climate improvement); a) Carbon footprint of Vietnam - and energy mix in Hanoi (Vietnam in general) used for public electricity supply; b) Effects of air pollution to human health in Hanoi, and especially the effects to the lower social strata. If possible monetarisation of the effects.

Specific Tasks/Activities:

1) Gain full understanding of the project goal and its objectives. 2) Develop a detailed workplan to carry out all required tasks (incl. suggested methodologies, timeframe, resources, task allocation between consultants/project team, report structure, etc.). 3) Carry out studies (incl. document research, questionnaires, interviews, etc). 4) Develop a report (incl. all relevant aspects regarding the tasks assigned, and incl. a list of proposals for suitable partner organisations for the project). 5) Organise a small workshop (together with the Caritas Programme Manager) to adjust the overall project (incl. logframe, workplan, etc), advice for further steps to be taken, and planning of the feasibility study.

Methodologies:

Suggested methodologies include, but are not limited to, desk reviews, focus groups discussions, face-to-face in-depth interviews (based on interview guideline/questionnaire), questionnaires, etc. Consultants are encouraged to propose supplementary methodologies, techniques and tools (see specific task 2).

3. Tentative Agenda

Activity Tentative Time Comments/Notes Date 1 Gaining thorough understanding of project 10-12 April 1.5 Incl. consultation with goal and objectives days Caritas Project Team to answer questions 2 Development of detailed methodology, tools 13-16 April 1.5 Consultants will get final and work-plan days approval by Caritas latest by 18 April 3 Carrying out of baseline research/studies 19 April – 14 days 10 May 4 Development of report 11-17 May 4 days 5 Workshop/preparation of Feasibility Study 22 May 1 day ½ day consultation/sharing workshop, ½ day preparation for concrete

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Contract Number:

adjustement of feasibility study Total: 22

4. Outputs/Deliverables:

Outputs/Deliverables Remarks/Description Deadline 1 Thorough understanding of project goal and 10-12 April objectives gained 2013 2 Detailed workplan, discussed with and approved The workplan should contain 16 April by Caritas Project Team suggested methodologies, 2013 timeframe, resources, task allocation between consultants/project team, report structure, etc. 3 Successful Research/Studies carried out 19 April – 10 May 2013 4 Report on Baseline Research/Studies, shared Report should be in English. 17 May with Caritas Project Team The report should include a list with 2013 proposals for suitable project partners. 5 Consultation/Sharing Workshop and List for Workshop should be co-organised 22 May Adjustment of the Feasibility Study with the Caritas Programme 2013 Manager

5. Contract Duration

Period of Working/Timeline: 10 April - 22 May 2013 Total No. of Working Days: 22 days 6. Payment and Reimbursement Consultants are asked to send their financial proposal. 7. Other Conditions/Remarks Hired consultants may prove suitable for further consultancy work with Caritas Switzerland in the same project for the feasibility study (planned May-June 2013). 8. Annex/Materials

1) Project Overview (Chart), with Goals, Objectives, Results, and Project Components 2) Internal Caritas Project Proposal 3) Project Logical Framework 4) REEEP Declaration (incl. Flyer and Info Materials)

9. Application

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Contract Number:

Interested consultants are invited to send their CV and proposal addressing their understanding of the assignment ( incl. relevant background ), short methodology and workplan (incl. time plan) , and budget proposal as well as reference details to Caritas at the following email address: [email protected] by 7 April 2013.

For any further information, please contact the Caritas Desk Officer of the E-bike Project: Name: Ms Le Thi Minh Thi Phone: 04 37623358 Email: [email protected]

5 Baseline Study Promotion of Electric Two-Wheelers and Solar Energy 62

Annex 4: copy of the work plan issued by consultants

The following pages contain the original work plan that was prepared by consultants for this assignment.

Work plan for the baseline study on electric bicycles in Hanoi

Last updated 03/06/2013 16:22

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY The main purpose of the study is to answer the following questions: 1. What are the factors that promote (and prevent) usage of electric bicycle usage, in particular among high-school and university students (age 16-22)? 2. What is the current status of student’s awareness, attitude, usage and cost of transport in general and with a focus on two wheel vehicles and electric bicycles? 3. What is the effect of transportation and electric bicycles on air quality and air pollution in Hanoi? 4. What are current and upcoming policies that may affect e-bikes? 5. What are other stakeholders doing to promote electric bicycles? 6. What is the status (e.g. income and employment) of n poor and disabled people and how can they benefit from promotion of electric bicycles (e.g. job creation)? 7. What are current and upcoming policies on solar energy/renewable energy in Vietnam?

CONTENT OF THE BASELINE STUDY

The proposed content is shown below. Chapters may be reorganized / renamed based on information received.The main report is expected to be between 25 and 30 pages, excluding annexes.

TABLE OF CONTENT OF E-BICYCLE BASELINE STUDY

TITLE PAGE INTRODUCTION LIST OF ABBREVIBRATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS  This will provide the main results of the baseline study and form the basis for the workshop. (1 page)

Chapter 1. Awareness, attitude, usage and cost of means of transport used among students Section (i) Modes of transport used in Hanoi city This chapter will provide a short summary of current transportation modes used in Hanoi and relevant trends, statistics and growth predictions. This chapter may also explain relevant demographic or economic changes. It will also explain available statistics on e-bikes (1 page). Main purpose of this chapter is to provide an introduction of the transport situation in Hanoi / Vietnam (e.g. rapid increase of car usage in recent years).

Section (ii) Outcome of e-bike perception survey a. Survey methodology and approach Approach Study methodology b. Actors influencing transport mode choice in Hanoi c. Daily usage of e-bicycles

Page 1 of 11 d. The perception of e-bikes among students. e. Perception of suppliers/manufacturers and adults (parents) on e-bikes f. Cost and performance of e-bicycles based on user experience g. Cost and performance of e-bicycles based on supplier and manufacturer specifications and assumptions. h. Rationale for purchase of e-bikes This chapter will provide the outcome of the survey conducted between (i) students, (ii) adults (iii) suppliers/manufacturers). It will try to answer the question what factors will (de)motivate people from using and buying electric bicycles. By questioning students, it is expected to answer questions related to the image, awareness and perception of students in relation to these vehicles. By questioning the adults (who are most likely actually paying for the vehicle) it is expected to determine the purchase motivation). Suppliers/manufactures are questioned to obtain their impression of buying motives, ways sales could be promoted and also technical and economic data. (6-10 pages). Section (iii): Assessment of economics and emissions of different mode of transport This chapter will explain the economics and emissions of various modes of transport and explain more how the e-bikes compare. It will also further elaborate in maintenance and other cost associated with the use of e-bikes (both from a user and manufacturer perspective) (2-3 pages)

Section (iv) How much CO2 emissions are e-bicycles saving at current levels? How much

CO2 is saved if e-bicycles share was to increase? This will provide a methodology for calculation of emissions of e-bikes. It will also explain default values used to calculate emissions from e-bikes and an assessment how they compare regionally and globally. (1-2 pages)

This section will also provide a calculation of emission reduction under a variety of scenario’s, based on the outcome of the survey and policy desk research. (1 page)

Section (v) Shifting and rebound effect Information about ways to promote electric bicycles and when or how people will return to other modes of transport, based on outcome of the stakeholder meeting and surveys. (1 page)

Chapter 2: Policy makers’ awareness, knowledge and policy framework for promoting RE/EE mode of transport and particularly e-bikes This will provide the result of both desk study and interviews with relevant government actors in relation to the current policies and expected new policies that may affect e-bike usage. (2-3 pages)

Chapter 3: Development of Solar PV power in Vietnam  This chapter will provide information on the development of renewable energy in Vietnam in general and solar PV power generation in particular. It will also explain current and upcoming policies, and measures that may incentivize solar PV power projects.

Chapter 4: Carbon footprint of energy generation in Vietnam  This chapter will explain how electricity in Vietnam is generated and provide particular information about the status of renewable energy in the generation mix.

Page 2 of 11 Chapter 5: Effect of air pollution from transportation  This chapter will explain the effects of transportation emissions on the air quality in Hanoi. Furthermore, it will explain the impact of the pollution on the general population and vulnerable groups (e.g. pregnant woman or children). (1- 2 pages)

Chapter 6: Income situation of disable and poor people in Hanoi  this chapter will explain what is the current situation of the employment/income generation of disabled people. Also it will explain how disabled people see their potential in doing business on e-bikes (advantages/challenges)?

Chapter 7: Activities of other stakeholders This will explain the outcome of interviews with other stakeholders on (i) e-bike promotion (ii) experience of other stakeholders with engagement of poor/disabled people in enterprises

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Annex 1 – List with potential partners Annex 2 – Results and data from survey Annex 3 – Index of references and interviewees

Page 3 of 11

SCHEDULE Below is a summary of the detailed project schedule.

Start on 15 April to finish on 30 May will have 46 days and 27 working days (considering the week of 29 Apr to 03 May a non-working week).

Project will deliver survey results and draft report to Caritas before the workshop on 22 May. Final report will be submitted no later than 30 may 2013.

(Days)

Task days(Days) Actual WBS Tasks Lead Note Start End Required man 1 Overall Project (baseline study) Ywert 15/04/13 30/05/13 46 46 Ywert + 1.1 Work Plan and Survey development Uan 15/04/13 19/04/13 5 5 1.2 Carry out Survey Uan 24/04/13 17/05/13 24 24 1.3 Desk research Ywert 25/04/13 06/05/13 12 12 Ywert + 1.4 Stakeholder meetings / data gathering Uan 23/04/13 14/05/13 22 22 1.5 Draft to submit to Caritas for review/comment 19/05/13 20/05/13 2 2 1.6 Report authoring 19/05/13 30/05/13 35 35 1.7 Workshop 20/05/13 22/05/13 3 3 2 Work Plan and Survey development Ywert 15/04/13 19/04/13 5 5 Develop work plan and project organization/staffing Ywert + 2.1 Uan 15/04/13 19/04/13 3 5 Ywert + 2.2 Survey implementation strategy Uan 15/04/13 16/04/13 2 2 Ywert + 2.3 List stakeholders to include in the project Uan 15/04/13 17/04/13 3 3 Ywert + 2.4 Prepare draft survey (user, non-user, manufacturer survey) Uan 15/04/13 17/04/13 3 3 3 Carry out Survey Uan 24/04/13 17/05/13 24 24 3.1 Test and adjust survey Uan 23/04/13 23/04/13 1 1 3.2 Survey administration (copying, distribution etc) Uan 23/04/13 24/04/13 2 2 3.3 Survey for students Uan 24/04/13 15/05/13 11 22 3.4 Survey for adults Uan 24/04/13 15/05/13 11 22 3.5 Survey for manufacturers/suppliers Uan 24/04/13 15/05/13 11 22 3.6 Process and consolidate survey report Uan 24/04/13 15/05/13 12 22 3.7 Survey data anlysis and chart/graph creation Uan 16/05/13 17/05/13 2 2 4 Desk research Ywert 25/04/13 06/05/13 12 12 4.1 Modes of transport used in Hanoi Ywert 24/04/13 25/04/13 2 2 4.2 Impact of transportation on air quality Ywert 25/04/13 26/04/13 2 2 4.3 Government policies on e-bikes and transportation Ywert 26/04/13 06/05/13 2 11 4.4 Grid emission factor information Ywert 27/04/13 27/04/13 1 1 4.5 Inclusion of disabled/poor people Ywert 28/04/13 06/05/13 1 9 Ywert + 5 Stakeholder meetings / data gathering Uan 23/04/13 14/05/13 22 22 After meeting with 5.1 Prepare interview questions and list of people to interview Ywert Caritas 23/04/13 23/04/13 1 1 5.2 Perform telephone interview Ywert 25/04/13 26/04/13 2 2 Gather data on other stakeholders that are relevant for the 5.3 project Ywert 25/04/13 09/05/13 6 15 5.4 Validation 25/04/13 14/05/13 1 20

Page 4 of 11 6 Report authoring Ywert 26/04/13 30/05/13 35 35 6.1 Outline Ywert 26/04/13 26/04/13 1 1 6.2 First draft (internal) Ywert 10/05/13 15/05/13 4 6 6.3 Draft to submit to Caritas for review/comment Ywert 19/05/13 20/05/13 2 2 6.4 Finalize report Ywert 22/05/13 30/05/13 4 4 Ywert + 7 Workshop Uan 20/05/13 22/05/13 3 3 Ywert + 7.1 Prepare documentation for workshop Uan 20/05/13 21/05/13 2 2 Ywert + 7.2 Workshop participation Uan 22/05/13 22/05/13 1 1

Page 5 of 11 CLARIFICATION OF TOR REQUIREMENTS a) students’ attitude, awareness, usage, and costs of their daily means of transportation and viable alternatives, such as e-bikes (esp. also in regard to renewable energy and microclimate improvement in Hanoi/effect to greenhouse effect) as well as preferred types/models of electric two-wheelers;

The purpose is: 1. To determine attitude, awareness and perception of high-school and university students regarding electric bicycles. Rationale: to determine the factors that influence behaviour of students to use (or not to use) electric bicycles)(SURVEY) 2. To collect data on cost and performance of electric bicycles. To provide objective information on quality and cost of electric bicycles (both from a user perspective and as guaranteed by the supplier/manufacturer).(SURVEY) b) the income situation of the poor disabled in Hanoi and their employment status; 1. Provide an overview of the income and employment status of disabled and poor people in Hanoi. 2. To identify how disabled and poor people can be involved in the project, most effectively. (DESK) c) relevant policy makers’ awareness and knowledge, and the state of relevant renewable energy and energy efficiency implementation and policies in Vietnam, as well as existing policies on urban air environment, and suggested transportation solutions (in regard to micro-climate improvement);

1. To give an overview of current and upcoming policies that may promote electric bicycles or affect transportation in Hanoi. a. To identify current or new policies that may lead to a transportation mode swift (DESK + INTERVIEW) b. To identify current or new policies that may help to promote electric bicycles (DESK + INTERVIEW)

(d) Carbon footprint of Vietnam - and energy mix in Hanoi (Vietnam in general) used for public electricity supply;

To explain the current energy generation mix in Vietnam and its energy intensity.(DESK) e) Effects of air pollution to human health in Hanoi, and especially the effects to the lower social strata. If possible monetarisation of the effects.

1. To provide an overview of the impact of transportation on air quality in Hanoi a. To define the current air pollution situation in Hanoi and its implications on the health of the population (especially vulnerable groups such as pregnant woman and children). (INTERVIEW + DESK) b. To explain the impact of electric bicycle usage on air quality in Hanoi. (INTERVIEW + DESK)

Page 6 of 11 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN:

1. DESK RESEARCH (responsible person: Ywert)

The following approach will be adopted: (i) Desk research of available literature and research on the income situation of people with disabilities in Hanoi and status of their employment. (i) Desk research of available literature and research on policies to promote alternative transportation modes and the effect of electric bicycles as well as the current transportation modes used in Hanoi and Vietnam on the ambient air quality. (i) Desk research of available literature on the effects and costs of air pollution on the human health in Hanoi and in particular on vulnerable groups, including children, elderly and pregnant woman. (ii) Desk research on carbon footprint of Vietnam - and energy mix in Hanoi.

2. INTERVIEW (responsible person: Ywert and Uan)

(ii) Interviews will be conducted with relevant actors that are listed in the Interview and stakeholder list.

3. SURVEY ORGANIZATION

An E-Bike survey will be conducted among a minimum of 120 ± 20 students, adults (users/non users) and 30 manufactures via direct interview (as defined below) and additional surveys through indirect interview (as explained below). The survey in different locations of Hanoi will be carried out from 22 April to 26 April and from 6 May to 10 May. The duration may be extended or shorten once the survey completed. It is expected to collect approximately 150 usable and complete surveys through distribution of 300 copies).

The type of survey was developed as the interview with yes-no question, multi choice question and comment question. The questions will be converted in to Vietnamese for convenience during interview.

To obtain high quality responses, there will be two approaches to complete the survey, as follows:

 Direct interview: Direct interview will be used for a number of surveys. This means that the interviewer will complete the survey by talking to the respondent involved. This will ensure that questions are answered completely and comprehensively.

 Indirect interview: The surveys will be distributed to students and request them to answer questions or select the proper solutions. Then the surveys will be collected. Since the survey will be completed without supervision, the results of this survey are subject to a higher uncertainty in relation to the quality of the responses. However, the advantage is that the survey will be spread among a larger group of respondents.

Distribution of survey among students and adults

Page 7 of 11 Main vehicle for distribution of surveys will be through appointed focal points at a number of universities and high schools. We have secured cooperation with students from the 05 universities/schools listed below. They will act as the focal point for distribution. The students involved are:

(1) Hanoi University of Science and Technology Nguyen Duc Quy (third year student, major in Environmental engineering)

(2) National Economics University Nguyen Thi Hoa (forth year student, environmental economics)

(3) Hanoi Foreign Trade University Nguyen Thi Lan Huong (forth year student, Foreign Trading)

(4) Chu Van An High School, or other High School Pham Quoc Hoang (Chemical and science), 10th grade

What about parents of students??

(5) Thang Long High School Nguyen Van Dat, 11 th grade

These students will act as a starting point. Further distribution may also happen through other channels. In addition, these students will be responsible to collect a number of surveys among adults.

Distribution and data collection of surveys of manufacturer/supplier of e-bikes All surveys of manufacturers and suppliers will be conducted through direct interview. Main vehicle for distribution of surveys will be through engagement of reliable students and a number of surveys will also be conducted by Uan.

Page 8 of 11 LIST OF STAKEHOLDERS TO INTERVIEW The following list of stakeholders has been compiled that will be initially interviewed. Based on the outcome of each meeting, more people may be visited.

Air quality / air pollution 1. Institute of Transport Planning and Management Dr. Ing. Khuat Viet Hung 2. Hanoi Center for Environmental and Natural Resources Monitoring and Analysis (CENMA) Mr. Nguyen Minh Tan 3. School of Environmental Science and Technology Prof. Dr. Nghiem Trung Dung

Government / City policy 4. Hanoi Traffic Police Department Mr. Dao Vinh Thang 5. Hanoi People Committee (Hanoi Urban Transport Management and Operation Centre) 6. Asian Development Bank (Transport and Communications Division)

Statistics on poor/disabled people 7. Vietnam Association for the Handicapped / Hanoi Association for Disabled People 8. Inclusive Development Action (IDEA) Ms. Nguyen Thi Oanh

Development of a social enterprise / engage disabled/poor in business 9. Centre for Social Initiatives Promotion Ms. Kieu Oanh Pham

Electric Bicycle sellers/manufactures

10. Honda Vietnam Co., Ltd (market leader, environmental awareness promotion, manufacturer) 11. SUFAT Vietnam Company Limited (potential manufacturer) 12. Hanoi Bicycle Collective (knowhow on e-bike promotion and sales) Mr. Guim Valls Teruel 13. Asama Jiun International Vietnam Co.,Ltd. (market leader in e-bikes) Director: Fang Wu Leh 14. CÔNG TY TNHH SX TM DV HIỆP TÂN HITASA (manufacturer) 15. VIHA Bicycle Company (VIHABICO) (manufacturer) 16. CÔNG TY TNHH ĐIỆN KHÍ JILI VIỆT NAM (manufacturer) 17. CÔNG TY ĐIỆN MÁY XE ĐẠP XE MÁY TODIMAX (manufacturer) 18. Công ty cổ phần xe đạp LIXEHA (seller/distributor) 19. Distributors/shop owners in Hanoi

Page 9 of 11 GUIDING QUESTIONS FOR STAKEHOLDERS The following guiding questions will be used in the conversation with the stakeholder groups that are defined above. For each individual interviewee also specific questions will be developed, based on their position, organization, experience.

Air quality / air pollution Guiding questions Objective: Determine status of current monitoring activities and availability of recent statistics. Determine impact of air quality on human health.

1. Where are air quality monitoring point located in Hanoi? How many are there? What is their operating status? 2. Are there any monitoring stations that monitor emissions from traffic in Hanoi? 3. Which recent publications are there on air quality / air pollution in Hanoi? 4. What is the current status of air pollution caused by transportation activities? How do the current metrics relate to national standards on air quality? 5. What research is your organization currently working on in the field of air pollution from transportation activities? 6. What are the impacts of air pollution on the health, and what are the effects of transportation emissions on the health of people, and especially vulnerable groups? 7. Have you observed changes in air pollution emissions in recent years, e.g. due to changes in the type of vehicles people use or other factors, such as the economy? 8. Are you aware of any upcoming policy from central or local government to curb air pollution and that caused by transportation in particular?

Government / City policy Guiding questions Objective: Determine current action plan on traffic mode change / identify initiatives to develop (or upcoming) policies that may affect transportation modes used. 1. What are the main challenges facing transportation in Hanoi? 2. What are the main contributing factors of traffic congestion? 3. Are any patterns visible? 4. What is your opinion about the effect of cycling or electric bicycles on the traffic in Hanoi? Would it easy traffic congestions? 5. Currently many transportation projects are underway in Hanoi, such as the BRT, the metro line. What are current plans for commuting from/to the station for these projects? 6. Does your department engage in initiatives to change the travel behavior of commuters, e.g. by discouraging use certain vehicles? 7. Are you currently aware or working on policies that may affect users travel behavior or promote/discourage certain vehicles? 8. Are there any plans to promote cycling or electric vehicles, such as electric bicycles?

Page 10 of 11 Statistics on poor/disabled people Objective: Obtain statistics on the income situation and employment situation of the poor and disabled in Hanoi 1. Is the status, e.g. income, employment etc. monitored by the government or other actors? 2. What publications are there on the income, employment and social status of poor and disabled? 3. What is the leading publication on income and employment of poor / disabled? 4. What is the latest available publication? 5. What kind of employment do disabled generally have? 6. What is their income? 7. What are general /demographic characteristics of poor people in Hanoi? 8. What are trends observed in the employment or income situation among poor / disabled in Hanoi in the last 3 years? 9. How is the impact of economic growth or downturn on these groups? 10. What are successful initiatives to employ disabled and poor people?

Development of a social enterprise / engage disabled/poor in business Objective: obtain information how poor / disabled can be successfully engaged in business and how their income situation can be improved in a sustainable manner.

1. Can you name 5 social enterprises that in your opinion have been very successful? 2. What are successful initiatives that you have come across in the field of promotion of employment for disabled and disadvantaged people? 3. What are thing to consider when employing disadvantaged or disabled people? 4. Are there any support mechanisms from the government that can help businesses to employ disabled easier? 5. What are benefits of hiring people with disabilities for a company? For example, are they more loyal than regular staff? 6. What are things to consider when hiring people with disabilities?

Electric Bicycle sellers/manufactures Main information from this group will be collected through survey. However, some will be queried directly for specific information, e.g.

1. What is the status of domestic e-bike manufacturing? How many manufacturers are there? 2. What is your companies’ perspective on electric bicycles? 3. Is an electric bicycle a viable alternative for motorbikes? 4. What market do you focus on for the electric bicycles you sell? 5. Does the government have any policy to encourage or discourage production/sales of e-bikes? How about tax such as import tax? 6. What is the impact of Chinese and Japanese made motorbikes?

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