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A STUDY IN THE RISE AND THREAT OF THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND SYRIA A Thesis Proposal Presented to the Faculty of the College of Graduate Studies of Angelo State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree MASTER OF SECURITY STUDIES by MICHAEL G. FISHER December 2015 Major: Security Studies A STUDY IN THE RISE AND THREAT OF THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND SYRIA by MICHAEL G. FISHER APPROVED: Dr. Anthony Celso Dr. Bruce Bechtol Jr. Dr. William Taylor Dr. Andrew Wright December 2015 APPROVED: Dr. Susan Keith Dean of the College of Graduate Studies ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project would not have been possible to complete without the unwavering support of my wife Aimee and our children Mack and Annie. I will be forever grateful for their understanding, on top of the demands of being a military family. I must also recognize my brothers and sisters at SIGSEC for going above and beyond to support my scholarly efforts, even in the most arduous of times. The faculty of the Security Studies Department have been phenomenal throughout the course of this program. Specifically, Dr. Anthony Celso has provided incredible academic and logistical support throughout this process. Finally, were it not for the valorous and monumental sacrifices of the men and women of the United States armed forces and Intelligence Community in the face of pure evil, I would not have been inspired to take on this project. iii ABSTRACT The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) took the international community by surprise in June 2014 by defeating the Iraqi military in multiple battles that culminated in the seizure of Mosul, Iraq on 10 June 2014. On 30 June 2014, ISIS publicly declared a Caliphate that stretches from northern Syria to the outskirts of Baghdad. This occurred due to corruption and sectarian strife of the Maliki regime, alongside the departure of US forces in 2011. The issue of ISIS is a sectarian issue 1,400 years in the making and likely to be unresolved short of overwhelming military force in Iraq and Syria combined with sweeping sectarian focused political changes. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER I .......................................................................................................................... 10 THE JIHADIST PHILOSOPHICAL SHIFT WITHIN ISLAM ............................................... 10 The First Sunni Rebellion .............................................................................................................. 10 A Changing of the Guard .............................................................................................................. 12 The Original Salafist ...................................................................................................................... 15 What Was Old Is New Again ......................................................................................................... 19 The Wahhabi Kingdom ................................................................................................................. 30 Putting It All Together .................................................................................................................. 33 CHAPTER II ......................................................................................................................... 35 THE INFLUENCE AND LEGACY OF ABU MUSAB AL-ZARQAWI ON ISIS ................... 35 A Thug in Zarqa ............................................................................................................................. 36 Becoming an Arab Afghan ............................................................................................................ 39 Fighting the Near Enemy .............................................................................................................. 42 Afghanistan Redux ........................................................................................................................ 45 Iraq: From Obscurity to Sheikh of the Slaughterers ..................................................................... 48 The Beginning of the End ............................................................................................................. 54 A Legacy of Destruction ................................................................................................................ 56 CHAPTER III ....................................................................................................................... 58 OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM: PANDORA’S BOX ............................................................ 58 The Threat That Wasn’t a Threat.................................................................................................. 59 Cultivating Terrorism .................................................................................................................... 68 CHAPTER IV........................................................................................................................ 72 FROM DEFEAT TO CALIPHATE ............................................................................................. 72 A New Iraq and a New Strategy .................................................................................................... 73 The Many Faces of Al-Qaeda ........................................................................................................ 76 Another Civil War? ....................................................................................................................... 81 Divorcing Al-Qaeda and Breaking the Walls ................................................................................. 83 Caliphate ....................................................................................................................................... 85 Is It Too Late? ............................................................................................................................... 87 What Next? ................................................................................................................................... 88 CHAPTER V ......................................................................................................................... 90 DEFEAT, CONTAINMENT OR SETTLING? ........................................................................... 90 Ideology ........................................................................................................................................ 90 Leadership .................................................................................................................................... 91 Information Operations ................................................................................................................ 93 Recruitment .................................................................................................................................. 95 Current Status ............................................................................................................................... 96 What Is The Strategy? .................................................................................................................. 97 v BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................... 102 vi INTRODUCTION The last fourteen years have been an intense roller-coaster ride for American citizens and policy makers with regard to terrorism. Prior to the “Manhattan Raid”1 conducted by Al Qaeda on September 11, 2001 most Americans had little awareness of the bloody cosmic war we were being lured into. This is understandable when one considers, for example, that at the time experts in government and academia were operating on the classical paradigm of terrorism2 in which we are all political actors, and thus camera time for the cause was the main objective. This is not to say that the mostly secularly motivated terrorists in the classical era were not lethal; rather, they understood that spilling blood and receiving negative press would hinder the accomplishment of their political objectives. Sadly, we were too late to realize the paradigm had shifted significantly. Instead of mostly secular terrorists who wanted to further their cause through publicity stunts, we were and are faced with a new breed: intensely devout, religiously inspired terrorists that are engaging in a religious and ethnic genocide in order to fulfill apocalyptic prophecy, hastening the final battle of this world and the creation of a new era of life for all of us.3 In short, as the global political order evolved, so too did the grievances and ideologies of terrorists. Not germane to one specific religion or philosophy, a central philosophy of modern terrorists is one in which the current order is so oppressive and hopeless that everything must be eliminated and renewed in the eyes of a God ostensibly seeking punishment and vengeance before a society built on love, peace and justice can be permanently cemented for 1. Bruce O. Riedel, The Search for Al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2008), Kindle. 2. Peter R. Neumann, “Old and New Terrorism,” Social Europe: The Journal of the European Left 4, no. 3 (Summer 2009): 41–44, accessed April 12, 2015. 3. Ibid. 1 the true believers. One need only look at the Japanese doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo,