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Ecuador: a Low-Threat Environment for Drug Trafficking

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Ecuador: a Low-Threat Environment for Drug Trafficking View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis and Dissertation Collection 2016-03 Ecuador: a low-threat environment for drug trafficking Gherardy, Juan G. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/48526 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS ECUADOR: A LOW-THREAT ENVIRONMENT FOR DRUG TRAFFICKING by Juan G. Gherardy March 2016 Thesis Advisor: Ryan Gingeras Second Reader: Thomas C. Bruneau Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) March 2016 Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ECUADOR: A LOW-THREAT ENVIRONMENT FOR DRUG TRAFFICKING 6. AUTHOR(S) Juan G. Gherardy 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Ecuador’s role in the cocaine trade has historically differed from its drug-trafficking neighbors. This Andean country traditionally serves as a transshipment hub for illegal narcotics, precursor chemicals, and a place to launder money. Over the past several years, however, Ecuador appears to have become a rising actor in the cocaine trade. Seizures are increasing and so is the presence of transnational criminal organizations. Why is Ecuador now experiencing an increase in cocaine seizures? What factors explain this emergence? What is attracting transnational criminal organizations, such as the Mexican cartels, the Russian Mafia, and the Chinese Triads, to Ecuador? Furthermore, how has Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa’s administration, its policies, and its relationship with the United States contributed to this new dynamic? This thesis argues that the increased flow of cocaine through the country is what is driving the increase in seizures. This increase is further attributed to the ease of operating in Ecuador, making it a low- threat option for cocaine traffickers. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Ecuador, Rafael Correa, cocaine trafficking, transnational criminal organizations, PAGES cartels, maritime trafficking, Andean cocaine, U.S.-Ecuadorian relations, supply chain, 123 weak institutions, microtrafficking 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited ECUADOR: A LOW-THREAT ENVIRONMENT FOR DRUG TRAFFICKING Juan G. Gherardy Major, United States Air Force B.B.A., University of Texas at San Antonio, 2004 M.A., Webster University, 2012 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (WESTERN HEMISPHERE) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 2016 Approved by: Ryan Gingeras Thesis Advisor Thomas C. Bruneau Second Reader Mohammed M. Hafez Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Ecuador’s role in the cocaine trade has historically differed from its drug- trafficking neighbors. This Andean country traditionally serves as a transshipment hub for illegal narcotics, precursor chemicals, and a place to launder money. Over the past several years, however, Ecuador appears to have become a rising actor in the cocaine trade. Seizures are increasing and so is the presence of transnational criminal organizations. Why is Ecuador now experiencing an increase in cocaine seizures? What factors explain this emergence? What is attracting transnational criminal organizations, such as the Mexican cartels, the Russian Mafia, and the Chinese Triads, to Ecuador? Furthermore, how has Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa’s administration, its policies, and its relationship with the United States contributed to this new dynamic? This thesis argues that the increased flow of cocaine through the country is what is driving the increase in seizures. This increase is further attributed to the ease of operating in Ecuador, making it a low-threat option for cocaine traffickers. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. ECUADOR: A LOW-THREAT OPTION FOR COCAINE TRAFFICKING ........................................................................................... 1 A. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 1 B. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH QUESTIONS ...................... 1 C. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................... 3 1. Ecuador’s Role in the Drug Trade ..................................... 3 a. History of Cocaine in the Andes ............................. 5 b. Evolution of Narcotics Prohibition: The Andean Target .......................................................... 6 2. Ecuador’s Domestic Politics and Rafael Correa .............. 9 D. U.S.-ECUADORIAN RELATIONS ................................................ 10 E. POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES ................... 11 F. RESEARCH DESIGN .................................................................... 12 G. THESIS OVERVIEW ..................................................................... 13 II. ECUADOR’S ROLE IN THE COCAINE SUPPLY CHAIN ....................... 15 A. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 15 B. CURRENT TRENDS: COCAINE AND TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS ...................................................... 16 C. SHIFT FROM COLOMBIA TO MEXICO ....................................... 18 D. THE SHIFT FROM MEXICO, SOUTH TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ANDES ....................................................... 19 E. ECUADOR IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: INTERNAL ROUTES ........ 23 F. MARITIME TRAFFICKING ........................................................... 27 G. PRECURSOR CHEMICALS ......................................................... 29 III. ECUADOR’S DOMESTIC POLITICS AND RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES ..................................................................................... 33 A. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 33 B. A HISTORY OF POLITICAL CHAOS ........................................... 33 C. RAFAEL CORREA’S “CITIZEN REVOLUTION” ......................... 36 D. DRUG POLICIES PRE-CORREA ................................................. 41 E. DRUG POLICIES UNDER THE CORREA ADMINISTRATION .... 45 F. U.S.-ECUADORIAN RELATIONS: A DOWNWARD TREND ....... 49 IV. EXPLAINING THE INCREASE IN COCAINE FLOW .............................. 57 A. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 57 vii B. COMMON EXPLANATIONS ......................................................... 57 1. Corruption ......................................................................... 57 2. Weak Institutions .............................................................. 65 a. The Judicial System............................................... 65 b. The Financial System ............................................ 69 C. EXPLANATIONS SPECIFIC TO ECUADOR ................................ 71 1. The New Drug Law Reforms and the Growth of Microtrafficking ................................................................. 71 2. Reduced U.S. Counternarcotics Involvement ................ 76 V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................... 81 A. CHAPTER SUMMARIES .............................................................. 81 1. The Ecuadorian Drug Trade ............................................. 81 2. U.S.-Ecuadorian Relations ............................................... 82 3. Explanations and Findings .............................................. 82 B. RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................. 85 1. Prioritize Rebuilding Trust and Influence in Ecuador ... 85 2. Andean Region Intelligence Fusion Center .................... 86 LIST OF
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