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Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 February 2016 Overweight Haier Electronics Group Co 1169.HK, 1169 HK Further Thoughts on Qingdao Haier/GE deal, Earnings Price: HK$13.72 ▼ Price Target: HK$18.00 Revisions, FY15 Result Preview Previous: HK$20.00 Qingdao Haier announced further details of its GE Appliances China acquisition. Key takeaways: 1) in the US, GE Appliances will continue Consumer to manage/enhance its brand position; Haier could leverage its existing Shen Li, CFA AC product portfolio to add differentiated offerings to GE's US product (852) 2800 8523 lines. 2) In the Chinese market, GE can leverage the strong distribution [email protected] channel and local expertise of Qingdao Haier to launch localised Bloomberg JPMA SHLI <GO> products. 3) Qingdao Haier currently sells through the retail channel in Ebru Sener Kurumlu (852) 2800-8521 the US, while GE has established channels across both retail and [email protected] contract channels. The Haier brand can leverage GE's existing George Hsu relationships through the US retail channel. GE also has long-term (852) 2800-8559 relationships with home owners, property developers, property [email protected] management agencies and hotel operators. The Haier brand can also Dylan Chu leverage off GE's strong position in these channels. 4) For first 20 years, (852) 2800-8537 Qingdao Haier has the global right to use GE brands and pay 0% royalty [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited fees on both exclusive (food preparation, food preservation, household cleaning, household comfort appliances) and non-exclusive products Price Performance (water purifier products). For the next two ten-year periods, Qingdao 28 Haier can choose to extend the global right to use GE brands and pay 24 0.50% royalty fees on exclusive products and 0.25% on non-exclusive HK$ 20 16 products. 5) Qingdao Haier expects incremental interest expense to be 12 US$76-113m. Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 1169.HK share price (HK$) Haier Electronics remains our top pick. Haier Electronics currently HSCEI (rebased) YTD 1m 3m 12m trades at a forward P/E of ~13x, with net cash accounting for ~28% of Abs -8.7% -8.7% -8.8% -33.4% market cap. While sales momentum has slowed, we believe multiple re- Rel 3.8% 3.8% 12.9% -3.7% rating catalysts remain, particularly with respect to asset acquisitions/injections, growth in smart home appliances and growth in logistics profitability. Haier Electronics Group Co (Reuters: 1169.HK, Bloomberg: 1169 HK) Rmb in mn, year-end Dec FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E Company Data Revenue (Rmb mn) 62,263 67,134 62,097 62,828 67,485 Shares O/S (mn) 2,687 Net Profit (Rmb mn) 2,037 2,447 2,670 2,472 2,817 Market Cap (Rmb mn) 31,133 Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.78 0.90 0.96 0.88 1.00 Market Cap ($ mn) 4,734 Recurring EPS (Rmb) 0.80 0.92 0.89 0.88 1.01 Price (HK$) 13.72 DPS (Rmb) 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09 Date Of Price 01 Feb 16 Revenue growth (%) 12.0% 7.8% (7.5%) 1.2% 7.4% Free Float(%) - Net Profit growth (%) 20.2% 20.1% 9.1% (7.4%) 14.0% 3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 3.67 Recurring profit growth 20.2% 19.9% 0.1% 1.2% 14.0% 3M - Avg daily val (HK$ mn) 51.99 EPS growth (%) 18.1% 14.9% 7.1% (8.8%) 13.6% 3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 6.7 ROE 31.7% 26.4% 19.1% 15.9% 15.7% HSCEI 8241.36 ROA 10.5% 10.3% 8.8% 8.2% 8.5% Exchange Rate 7.79 P/E (x) 14.8 12.9 12.1 13.2 11.6 Price Target End Date 31-Dec-16 P/BV (x) 4.0 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 6.2 6.2 5.6 4.3 Dividend Yield 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. See page 17 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Shen Li, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800 8523 01 February 2016 [email protected] Key catalysts for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view: Upcoming quarterly results reported by Haier Electronics. (1) Any upturn in demand for household appliances in (1) Further weakness in the home appliances industry Any announcement regarding M&A or strategic China; (2) Any improvement in the channel inventory in China; (2) Risk that Haier loses market share in air partnerships. position of the company and air conditioner industry in conditioner segment; (3) Risk of intensifying general competition Key financial metrics FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E Valuation and price target basis Revenues (LC) 67,134 62,097 62,828 67,485 Our Dec-16 PT of HK$18 is based on a target P/E of 15x Revenue growth (%) 8% -8% 1% 7% and our earnings forecasts for the year ending Dec-16. EBITDA (LC) 3,158 3,132 3,212 3,669 EBITDA margin (%) 5% 5% 5% 5% Tax rate (%) 21% 19% 19% 19% Net profit (LC) 2,447 2,670 2,472 2,817 EPS (LC) 0.90 0.96 0.88 1.00 EPS growth (%) 15% -2% -1% 14% Haier Electronics One-year forward PE DPS (LC) 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09 21 BVPS (LC) 4.06 5.21 5.90 6.79 Operating cash flow (LC mn) 2,911 2,821 2,741 3,201 18 Free cash flow (LC mn) 1,952 1,365 1,705 2,240 15 Interest cover (X) NM NM NM NM Net margin (%) 4% 4% 4% 4% 12 Sales/assets (X) 2.72x 2.18x 2.04x 2.00x 9 Debt/equity (%) 15% 8% 7% 6% Net debt/equity (%) -75% -61% -62% -65% 6 ROE (%) 26% 19% 16% 16% Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Key model assumptions FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E Sales growth -7.5% 1.2% 7.4% Gross Margins 15.5% 15.9% 16.2% EBIT Margins 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% Source: Company, J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Sensitivity analysis EBITDA EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates Sensitivity to FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E EPS (RMB) FY15E FY16E 1pp decrease in sales growth -1.0% -1.9% -1.1% -2.0% JPMe old 0.97 0.95 10bps decrease in Gross margin -1.0% -1.9% -1.1% -1.8% JPMe new 0.96 0.88 10bps decrease in EBIT Margin -1.0% -1.9% -1.1% -1.8% % chg -1.6% -7.5% Consensus 1.00 1.07 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. 2 Shen Li, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800 8523 01 February 2016 [email protected] Qingdao Haier announces acquisition of GE Appliances Transaction overview Qingdao Haier announced on 15-Jan-2016 that it had entered into an agreement with General Electric (GE US, Covered by J.P. Morgan Analyst Steve Tusa) to acquire GE’s home appliance assets for a cash consideration of US$5.4bn, pending regulatory approval. Qingdao Haier intends to finance ~40% of the transaction with internal cash resources and ~60% with external USD debt financing. Concurrently, Haier Group and GE have entered into a long-term strategic partnership to explore co-operation in areas of industrial internet, healthcare and advance manufacturing. GE had previously agreed to sell its home appliances assets to Electrolux (ELUXB SS, Covered by J.P. Morgan Analyst Andreas Willi) for US$3.3bn cash in Sep-2014. However, the transaction failed to gain regulatory approval due to antitrust concerns. On 1-Jul-15, the US Department of Justice sued Electrolux and GE to stop the proposed acquisition. On 7-Dec-15, GE terminated its agreement with Electrolux while the court procedure was still pending. Following the termination of the deal with Electrolux, GE restarted the sale process to dispose of its appliances unit, with news reports that both Midea and Qingdao Haier were among bidders for the assets (see Bloomberg, 12-Jan-2016). The transaction is structured as an asset sale with no net cash/debt position being transferred. As part of the transaction, Qingdao Haier expects to receive a material amount of tax savings due to assets acquired being able to be amortised. Including the benefit of such tax savings, the US$5.4bn consideration implies an EV/EBITDA valuation of 8.2x (2015 expected EBITDA). Based on GE’s announcement, the transaction value implies ~10x last 12 months EBITDA. We note that the Electrolux/GE transaction was priced at an EBITDA multiple range of 7.0-7.3x pre-synergies (on FY14 earnings). Details of target assets and industry overview General Electric derives ~90% of sales from the US and is the number two player in the US major appliance market, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3% over 2016-2020.
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